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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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14 minutes ago, Doug B said:

And even since I typed that post, the USA confirmed cases went up another 2,130 cases. Starting with that number, and the daily % increases above, we get to 1.5 million confirmed cases one day earlier, on April 15th.

And since I typed THIS ... another 921 have been counted.

U.S. over 100,000 now at 100,037.

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3 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

For work I am working with a place that does surveys, we’re getting them to do a survey for us that’s unrelated to the virus.  But when I just talked to the guy on the phone he said they were swamped because they’re doing a ton of surveys in different areas where they’re just calling people to ask if they have a fever.  That information will be used to estimate how widespread the virus is in particular areas so that hospitals will be able to better predict how bad the onslaught will be. 
 

I thought that was pretty cool, hope it works.

A researcher/scientist I know in the cannabis space is also working on this project.

https://covidnearyou.org/#!/

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Is there a way for you to run the numbers just for cases involving hospitalizations? IMO, number of cases without more info doesn't really help much. Hospitals care more about how many people they are going to have to treat and how many beds they have available. So instead of TOTAL # OF CASES, have that column be TOTAL # OF HOSPITALIZATIONS instead. (Not sure where that information is accessible and if that would be hard for you to put together.)

Yeah, you understand the issue exactly -- no aggregated hospitalization data that I'm aware of. Instead, I have to treat "confirmed cases minus ~80%" as a proxy for "hospitalizations". Fundamentally, still spitballing ... just trying to use up-to-date case numbers and (hopefully) reasonable assumptions.

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Posted (edited)

Signing the bill ceremony coming up. Speaker of house not invited. Good time for me to turn off the tv and take a nap.

Edited by CurlyNight

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Doug B said:

And since I typed THIS ... another 921 have been counted.

U.S. over 100,000 now at 100,037.

Is the cycle on this still 10 days or is it higher / lower? Meaning from point of exposure to symptom presenting.

Reason I ask is - are we at the point where we should be seeing the effect of the stay at home efforts?

If we're seeing this rate of growth when the stay at home effort should be bearing fruit, then we're in some deep trouble.

If not, maybe we'll see the spread slow down in the next few days as a result of the stay at home push.

Edited by Mr Anonymous

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Just now, chet said:

Cytodyn paid video explaining the patient results and how the drug helped the severely ill patients.

Do you all know what's in the pipeline for replicating the initial study? I assume your guys want to do a similar study with many more patients now that proof-of-concept is established. Is there an issue with sharing results with other researchers in other countries? Is this all proprietary resource or more "open source" in the world medical community?

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9 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

For work I am working with a place that does surveys, we’re getting them to do a survey for us that’s unrelated to the virus.  But when I just talked to the guy on the phone he said they were swamped because they’re doing a ton of surveys in different areas where they’re just calling people to ask if they have a fever.  That information will be used to estimate how widespread the virus is in particular areas so that hospitals will be able to better predict how bad the onslaught will be. 
 

I thought that was pretty cool, hope it works.

I do the Google surveys app. It asked me the other day if I have a fever.

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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Is the cycle on this still 10 days or is it higher / lower? Meaning from point of exposure to symptom presenting.

Reason I ask, is are we at the point where we should be seeing the effect of the stay at home efforts?

If we're seeing this rate of growth when the stay at home effort should be bearing fruit, then we're in some deep trouble.

If not, maybe we'll see the spread slow down in the next few days as a result of the stay at home push.

Only a few areas have had stay at home efforts that are 10 days or longer.

Maryland was one of the first to shut down schools and many businesses, but the general statewide shutdown was only ordered earlier this week.

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So yesterday our city announced that they will be removing all basketball hoops from city parks this morning.

Facebook blew up with all those people who still think this whole thing is a hoax to get.... (oh wait... that's political... so I can't mention that here).

Anyway, all these pissed off women with kids who can't play basketball anymore decide to turn to the tides to the subject of golf courses... which Ohio Governor DeWine's press secretary told the public may remain open as long as they follow some guidelines. These pissed off parents who think it's all a hoax are now up in arms about how unfair it is the poor kids can't play basketball, but "rich folk" can still play golf. They start defining "essential" by their own opinions. It took off on a life of it's own.

Well guess what... they just got their way. Despite the Governors press secretary giving them the okay to remain open, our City just ordered them to close. 

I don't golf. So this isn't a personal thing. But I honestly do not see the problem with golfing as long as the guidelines they must follow are followed. In my opinion, while we are all doing this "shelter in place", people need to get out and get some sun and fresh air. They need to walk in parks. Walking a golf course while playing a game of golf is just as good. I guess the golfers in our city will just have to commute to other cities to golf, as again, the state allows golfing even during this. 

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Just now, Mr Anonymous said:

Is the cycle on this still 10 days or is it higher / lower? Meaning from point of exposure to symptom presenting.

The incubation period is variable -- shortest I've read about is 2 days ... longest is 24 days (though the longer ones are controversial). 5-8 days is considered the range where most people's symptoms (if they're going to get them) set in.

The reason there's been some settling in on "14 days" is that incubation periods longer than 14 days are very rare.

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Only a few areas have had stay at home efforts that are 10 days or longer.

Maryland was one of the first to shut down schools and many businesses, but the general statewide shutdown was only ordered earlier this week.

Also most areas had almost no testing ten days ago, so the actual numbers then were likely MUCH higher than the official numbers, meaning that the growth rate since then is actually lower than it appears to be.

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Only a few areas have had stay at home efforts that are 10 days or longer.

Maryland was one of the first to shut down schools and many businesses, but the general statewide shutdown was only ordered earlier this week.

 

Just now, Doug B said:

The incubation period is variable -- shortest I've read about is 2 days ... longest is 24 days (though the longer ones are controversial). 5-8 days is considered the range where most people's symptoms (if they're going to get them) set in.

The reason there's been some settling in on "14 days" is that incubation periods longer than 14 days are very rare.

 

Thank you both. Feels like this stay at home order has been going on for a month. Perhaps we'll see the numbers slow early next week as a result of the stay at home directive. If not, I'll readily admit some of my own optimism will be greatly diminished.

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26 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Indeed. Everyone. Can we make that happen? How close can we get?

6 feet

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They're going to start cordoning off the parking lots to San Luis Obispo County, CA beaches this weekend. Sucks. Seems a bit overboard to me.

 

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17 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

Map still looks crazy to me to see US overwhelmed with C19 and just a few dots in Canada and Mexico. 

Leave an few cases unquarantined and without protective measures for the population, and you get an explosion.  It's likely to happen in Canada and Mexico, but maybe they'll clamp down hard on people coming in from the USA as they might be carriers.

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6 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Is the cycle on this still 10 days or is it higher / lower? Meaning from point of exposure to symptom presenting.

Reason I ask is - are we at the point where we should be seeing the effect of the stay at home efforts?

If we're seeing this rate of growth when the stay at home effort should be bearing fruit, then we're in some deep trouble.

If not, maybe we'll see the spread slow down in the next few days as a result of the stay at home push.

Something else tough is that we're really still so early in the testing process. If we had two weeks of South-Korea-level testing in the rear-view mirror ...we'd have a much better idea of where we are.

Stay-at-home efforts are also really new ... less than two weeks pretty much everywhere.

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

Yeah, you understand the issue exactly -- no aggregated hospitalization data that I'm aware of. Instead, I have to treat "confirmed cases minus ~80%" as a proxy for "hospitalizations". Fundamentally, still spitballing ... just trying to use up-to-date case numbers and (hopefully) reasonable assumptions.

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens where I am (North of Boston). We don't yet have a ton of people requiring hospitalization, but we are designated to cover overflow for the Boston hospitals. They have been at it non-stop prepping and converting places here in NH (outpatient medical facilities, a college, a high school, a nursing home, and a psych hospital so far that I know of), adding hundreds if not thousands of beds if needed. My wife was on the nursing admin side of moving all existing hospital patients all over the place, and now the hospitals are mostly empty waiting for the projected tsunami of patients to hit. So she is partly petrified if they need all those beds and partly not seeing how they could possibly fill all the beds they created. Certainly the better option is they created a lot of extra beds for nothing, but IMO we are a long way from being able to determine that.

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18 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

For work I am working with a place that does surveys, we’re getting them to do a survey for us that’s unrelated to the virus.  But when I just talked to the guy on the phone he said they were swamped because they’re doing a ton of surveys in different areas where they’re just calling people to ask if they have a fever.  That information will be used to estimate how widespread the virus is in particular areas so that hospitals will be able to better predict how bad the onslaught will be. 
 

I thought that was pretty cool, hope it works.

Kinsa (?) thermometers doing a great job on this

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

I need some advice- non political: 

my 17 year old daughter is begging me to be allowed to go to the park and hang out with 2 of her friends. She swears she will stay 6 feet apart. She’s going stir crazy. 

Thoughts? 

Sorry Tim, no way.

I have a 15 year old daughter in the same boat--she is just itching to get out and see friends. I keep telling her, it is just for a short period of time and we all have to do our part. She isn't happy, but with my health, I can't take the chance.

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12 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Is the cycle on this still 10 days or is it higher / lower? Meaning from point of exposure to symptom presenting.

Reason I ask is - are we at the point where we should be seeing the effect of the stay at home efforts?

If we're seeing this rate of growth when the stay at home effort should be bearing fruit, then we're in some deep trouble.

If not, maybe we'll see the spread slow down in the next few days as a result of the stay at home push.

We also don't really know what effect the fact that tests themselves are ramping up is having on the growth rate. It could be a whole different slope.

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8 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Do you all know what's in the pipeline for replicating the initial study? I assume your guys want to do a similar study with many more patients now that proof-of-concept is established. Is there an issue with sharing results with other researchers in other countries? Is this all proprietary resource or more "open source" in the world medical community?

I don't think there will be an issue sharing results with other countries.  I know they have been in contact with China and I think Italy too.

Many hospitals volunteering to provide patients for the studies so enrollment shouldn't be an issue.  CYDY CEO said he thinks enrollment could be done in 1-2 weeks.  

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1 minute ago, cap'n grunge said:

We also don't really know what effect the fact that tests themselves are ramping up is having on the growth rate. It could be a whole different slope.

Good point. The ramped up testing is simultaneously rapidly increasing the case rate while lowering the death rate.

Disclaimer: Stating that the death rate is declining does not equal pushing the idea that there is no danger or that there's no reason to stay diligent.

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32 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

Where are the non-danger zones?

At this rate, Jupiter would be my best guess.

Not Florida...the planet

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Does anyone know if we have efforts racing to develop widespread antibodies testing? 

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2 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Leave an few cases unquarantined and without protective measures for the population, and you get an explosion.  It's likely to happen in Canada and Mexico, but maybe they'll clamp down hard on people coming in from the USA as they might be carriers.

Mandatory 14 day quarantine for anybody coming into Canada (only started this week, though)

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/news/2020/03/new-order-makes-self-isolation-mandatory-for-individuals-entering-canada.html

Earlier today everyone in Ontario received a text message with a "you are required by law..."  message. I think there is a tip line to rat out anyone who isn't obeying.  

It wasn't retroactive to anyone who came in, say a week ago so I'm not really sure how many people are still coming in.

As for our numbers being low, I';m sure part of it is the fact our entire population is slightly more than California. Possibly because we drink Maple syrup straight from the bottle as well. :whistle:

 

 

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18 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Only a few areas have had stay at home efforts that are 10 days or longer.

Maryland was one of the first to shut down schools and many businesses, but the general statewide shutdown was only ordered earlier this week.

NY statewide shutdown was 3/20, 1 week ago today.

Why it took so long is baffling. Glad for the response now but that extra week earlier could have made a huge difference. 

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12 minutes ago, dickey moe said:

They're going to start cordoning off the parking lots to San Luis Obispo County, CA beaches this weekend. Sucks. Seems a bit overboard to me.

 

The problem is that in many places with shelter in place orders (like here) people can’t help themselves and they swarm the beaches and parks on the weekend, ending up with overcrowding and the opposite of social distancing. So they close the parking lots - keeps people from driving and flocking to these public spaces while allowing locals who can walk there to still utilize. 
 

 

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44 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Indeed. Everyone. Can we make that happen? How close can we get?

I think it is a big ask given the inconsistent messaging coming from the White House and individual states.

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16 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Kinsa (?) thermometers doing a great job on this

Saw this on a TV show the other night. Florida seemed to have a whole bunch of fever going at the time (compared to the norm for this time of year).

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, falguy said:

I'm in Ontario. Small town about 30k. I believe it was Monday when the order to close all but essential services came out. That list if pretty extensive tho so there are still lots of "essential" services.   I'm in I.T. and working from home so, fortunately, still getting paid and as safe as possible from this.  Grocery stores are open, as this thing has progressed they've made changes to limit quantities on many items, limit people in the stores,limit hours  etc. My go-to store has employees there to clean off the cart handles and also apply hand sanitizer to you if you wish.  Physical distancing in place with tape on the floor at checkouts.  It's pretty well managed as far as that goes. 

Dining rooms in all restaurants and coffee shops are closed. As of yesterday, any restaurant that has a liquor license can sell liquor to it's customers provided they buy food as well.  So your take-out can come with a beer.  That's an Ontario thing. Maybe it will help sales for these places.  

We've had a couple of positive cases in my town and they haven't' released any names and I have no idea what would be told to any co-workers of anyone who tests positive.  

As of Wednesday Canada has mandated 14 day quarantine for passengers returning to canada. Our PM speaks every morning at 11am EST for about 15-20 minutes. Q&A follow.  Government has  implemented policies and funds to try to help those in need. Today offering money to small businesses. Earlier this week money to anyone unemployed due to this.  

I personally feel our government is doing as good a job as can be expected but they are definitely not pleasing everyone. 

LOL.....How's the WestMount Mall doing?  My wifes family came down to the states before she was born....but pretty much her whole family were born, raised and lived in London.  We used to go up there all the time and when I mentioned I was from Delaware, they all thought it was right down the street.  

Edited by Thunderlips

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, zoobird said:

Also most areas had almost no testing ten days ago, so the actual numbers then were likely MUCH higher than the official numbers, meaning that the growth rate since then is actually lower than it appears to be.

And on the other hand we appear to only be testing the very ill or those who have been in contact with positive patients. So the numbers are terribly difficult to get a handle on.

Edited by cap'n grunge

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28 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

So yesterday our city announced that they will be removing all basketball hoops from city parks this morning.

Facebook blew up with all those people who still think this whole thing is a hoax to get.... (oh wait... that's political... so I can't mention that here).

Anyway, all these pissed off women with kids who can't play basketball anymore decide to turn to the tides to the subject of golf courses... which Ohio Governor DeWine's press secretary told the public may remain open as long as they follow some guidelines. These pissed off parents who think it's all a hoax are now up in arms about how unfair it is the poor kids can't play basketball, but "rich folk" can still play golf. They start defining "essential" by their own opinions. It took off on a life of it's own.

Well guess what... they just got their way. Despite the Governors press secretary giving them the okay to remain open, our City just ordered them to close. 

I don't golf. So this isn't a personal thing. But I honestly do not see the problem with golfing as long as the guidelines they must follow are followed. In my opinion, while we are all doing this "shelter in place", people need to get out and get some sun and fresh air. They need to walk in parks. Walking a golf course while playing a game of golf is just as good. I guess the golfers in our city will just have to commute to other cities to golf, as again, the state allows golfing even during this. 

Makes sense to appease, given the circumstances. Then enforce at the courts if it's anything other than properly distanced games of HORSE and do the same at the golf course if they are complying, as well.

 

22 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens where I am (North of Boston). We don't yet have a ton of people requiring hospitalization, but we are designated to cover overflow for the Boston hospitals. They have been at it non-stop prepping and converting places here in NH (outpatient medical facilities, a college, a high school, a nursing home, and a psych hospital so far that I know of), adding hundreds if not thousands of beds if needed. My wife was on the nursing admin side of moving all existing hospital patients all over the place, and now the hospitals are mostly empty waiting for the projected tsunami of patients to hit. So she is partly petrified if they need all those beds and partly not seeing how they could possibly fill all the beds they created. Certainly the better option is they created a lot of extra beds for nothing, but IMO we are a long way from being able to determine that.

Let's hope the latter, but it is certainly good to hear the preparations are being done. 🤞

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1 minute ago, shader said:

 

True story:  lockdown calories don’t count.

There is another health crisis in the making.

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N.C. Gov issues 30 day closure of non essentials starting 5p today.  

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Wow, for those thinking China has this thing under control, check out the local videos being posted on @TruthAbtChina on Twitter

 

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8 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

LOL.....How's the WestMount Mall doing?  My wifes family came down to the states before she was born....but pretty much her whole family were born, raised and lived in London.  We used to go up there all the time and when I mentioned I was from Delaware, they all thought it was right down the street.  

:D

Westmount Mall has little to no retail anymore. There's a theatre and, some business.

 

https://londonfuse.ca/what-happened-to-westmount-mall/

 

Similar to my office downtown which used to be The Mews. a couple clothing shops. Only 2 malls in town, White Oaks in the  South and Masonville in the North.

I've driven through Delaware 🙂 

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1 minute ago, falguy said:

I've driven through Delaware

Did you notice?

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, chet said:

Cytodyn paid video explaining the patient results and how the drug helped the severely ill patients.

I hope they are good at theirregular jobs because they suck at tv.

Edited by cosjobs
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If you take out NY I don’t know if Canada is faring any better than the US considering population difference. 

Shocked Toronto has not been more hard hit yet. 

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34 minutes ago, Ben Hur said:

Wisconsin seems like an outlier here.

They usually are.

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1 hour ago, rogwadd said:

Read this article.  It's painful.  If you want to pursue that gig, contact ABC14News.  Unfortunately, competition for the position may be too much.

https://abc14news.com/2020/03/26/graham-asks-governors-to-help-fix-coronavirus-unemployment-loophole/

Umm, not sure what this site is trying to be, other than a very poor parody of the news, or a genius parody of the news.

https://abc14news.com/2020/03/27/first-known-cat-infected-by-coronavirus-reported-in-belgium/

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42 minutes ago, bradyfan said:

There is another health crisis in the making.

Mine is being partially offset from no fast food every day. Man am I craving it though.

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

The incubation period is variable -- shortest I've read about is 2 days ... longest is 24 days (though the longer ones are controversial). 5-8 days is considered the range where most people's symptoms (if they're going to get them) set in.

The reason there's been some settling in on "14 days" is that incubation periods longer than 14 days are very rare.

As far as I can tell, the average incubation period seems like it's 5.1 days with a stdev of 2.5.  So 7.6, 10.1, 13.6 days for 68%, 97% and 99% of cases.  Give or take -- with a skew.

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46 minutes ago, Statorama said:

Wow, for those thinking China has this thing under control, check out the local videos being posted on @TruthAbtChina on Twitter

 

Don’t do the twitter.  What’s the issues here?  People going nuts for being able to finally go out after so long, or is this a second wave?

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I am pleasantly surprised where I am at a lake house in a rural county. 3 confirmed cases. Very few people on the road. There were four people in the grocery store when I went yesterday and it was fully stocked with the exception of paper products. I'm headed back to the city to get my bike and a few other things, but I think I will be riding this out here.

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