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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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6 minutes ago, matttyl said:

A month ago?  And it’s a hotspot now?  

That's how epidemics work.

A while ago, it gets spread to a handful of peoplee.  One cycle later, it's doubled (or worse if people are mingling freely).  Several cycles later, which for this disease has meant five day periods in most countries, but less here because we don't take it seriously, you've got a disaster.  That's why experts keep telling even people who feel safe to shelter.  Because as Dr. Fauci repeatedly says, it's always ahead of where you think it is.

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15 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

So Fulton/Dekalb County which represents most of metro Atlanta have a combined 563 cases and 14 deaths.  Atlanta is a fairly big US city.  This podunk county in the SW part of the state with a population of fewer than 100k people has 203 cases and 13 deaths.

 

This is hitting some black communities hard. 

 

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My bro emailed this to me...

* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.
* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.
* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).
By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 77 degrees Fahrenheit for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
* NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; antibodies cannot kill what is not alive.
* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only
-between 3 hours (fabric and porous),
-4 hours (copper and wood)
-24 hours (cardboard),
- 42 hours (metal) and
-72 hours (plastic).
But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars.
They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.
* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.
* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
* You have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
* You have to Moisturize dry hands from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.
* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.
-JOHNS HOPKINS HOSPITAL

HTH

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

This is hitting some black communities hard. 

 

What worries me now is the concept of ‘flatten the curve’ has been presented to us one-dimensionally.  The curve that matters, the one most relevant to us personally, is our respective local healthcare systems.  The Dougherty County one...I read where they were quoted as saying ‘all 3 of our ICU units are full’.

Dougherty seems to be an outlier at the moment, but if hotspots start hitting rural America...the death rates will increase pretty significantly.

Edited by TheDirtyWord
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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, bradyfan said:

NBC [Video): Race to Meet Demand for Coronavirus Medical Supplies Sets Off Bidding War

States should not have to out bid each other for medical supplies ($5 per N95 mask).  I hope the federal government does something about this.

Healthcare Union Locates Massive Supply of N95 Masks (39 Million)

This is the organization selling masks to states, counties and hospitals for $5 apiece and claims it “has no financial interest in the transactions.”  Similar N95 masks used to be available in Home Depot for $23.97 for a box of 20, or about $1.20 apiece.

Edited by bradyfan
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11 hours ago, Slapdash said:

46% of cases in my county are ages 20-39.  :wall:

I don't understand why this gets a head-bash.  If half of all cases are young, that would be wonderful news for hospitalizations and mortality.  

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39 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

So Fulton/Dekalb County which represents most of metro Atlanta with a population of about 1.7-1.8M, have a combined 563 cases and 14 deaths.  This podunk county in the SW part of the state with a population of fewer than 100k people has 203 cases and 13 deaths.

 

Might be double that amount as they are waiting on several post mortem tests as well. 

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10 hours ago, gianmarco said:

If you are going to read anything on COVID moving forward, please read this.

We are in big, big trouble.

I could barely make it through the first section.  The guy seems to be aggressively repeating the same stuff that other people were talking about two months ago and imagining that he's the first person to discover exponential growth.

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13 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I could barely make it through the first section.  The guy seems to be aggressively repeating the same stuff that other people were talking about two months ago and imagining that he's the first person to discover exponential growth.

It reminded of typical clickbait article. 

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1 hour ago, matttyl said:

A month ago?  And it’s a hotspot now?  

I smack my head when I read this. Yes, a month ago. This is why it matters when people ignore the need to distance. It takes days to weeks to incubate. Each infected person passes it to 2-3 others. Exponential growth takes weeks to months, then it absolutely explodes. That’s where we are and without reducing social contact by 90% or more we get runaway trains.

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8 hours ago, gianmarco said:

And he's still doing it.

It's disgusting. 

We have thousands dead and he's laughing at posts that discuss this and worse. 

How he's still allowed here and can keep doing that is beyond me.

In fairness, when that feature originally rolled out, the mods didn’t even enable the laughing emoji. A bunch of us pushed for it, because 99% of the uses are in good fun and to uplift spirits, and there’s no sense in letting the trolls win. You guys should just ignore that, because if you don’t, I’m pretty sure the mods will just disable it and say “see, we told you so.” This is why we can’t have nice things. 

Just ignore the trolls. Seriously. 

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What are your thoughts on trips to Home Depot? There's so much I can be doing around the house but that would require several trips to HD. So frustrating. 

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1 minute ago, tamales said:

What are your thoughts on trips to Home Depot? There's so much I can be doing around the house but that would require several trips to HD. So frustrating. 

If there's something you need to fix, then sure. Ask if it's essential. If not and just looking to get stuff done while you're home, no different than going out to pick up some new games or to Blockbuster to grab a few movies. Or bagels.

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1 minute ago, gianmarco said:

If there's something you need to fix, then sure. Ask if it's essential. If not and just looking to get stuff done while you're home, no different than going out to pick up some new games or to Blockbuster to grab a few movies. Or bagels.

Definitely not essential. Just frustrating to finally have time to do things around the house and can't do them

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54 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

What worries me now is the concept of ‘flatten the curve’ has been presented to us one-dimensionally.  The curve that matters, the one most relevant to us personally, is our respective local healthcare systems.  The Dougherty County one...I read where they were quoted as saying ‘all 3 of our ICU units are full’.

Dougherty seems to be an outlier at the moment, but if hotspots start hitting rural America...the death rates will increase pretty significantly.

Seems relevant to post this again, addresses your point rather well, wish more people would promote it but this thread moves too fast

https://vimeo.com/397657805

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29 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

I smack my head when I read this. Yes, a month ago. This is why it matters when people ignore the need to distance. It takes days to weeks to incubate. Each infected person passes it to 2-3 others. Exponential growth takes weeks to months, then it absolutely explodes. That’s where we are and without reducing social contact by 90% or more we get runaway trains.

We agree.  I’m just pointing out that any social distancing or self isolation that’s done needs to be done over a month or more, not 15 days.  All that does is delay the problem, not solve it.

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Welp, this is another example of why MOST people doing the right thing is simply not good enough. 

A woman in town went grocery shopping sick as a dog and coughing up a lung. When people started giving her lip, she said she got tested but has not gotten her test results back yet. So she is refusing to quarantine herself until she is confirmed positive.

There is no cure for stupid.

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12 minutes ago, tamales said:

What are your thoughts on trips to Home Depot? There's so much I can be doing around the house but that would require several trips to HD. So frustrating. 

It could seemingly be OK, but in keeping with some of the above detail:

- ideally, wear a mask and gloves while at HD

- let anything you buy sit untouched for 3 days

- wash your clothes in hot water after getting home

- shower after getting home

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

Welp, this is another example of why MOST people doing the right thing is simply not good enough. 

A woman in town went grocery shopping sick as a dog and coughing up a lung. When people started giving her lip, she said she got tested but has not gotten her test results back yet. So she is refusing to quarantine herself until she is confirmed positive.

There is no cure for stupid.

OMG. I’d be furious. She might as well be carrying a knife out and be swinging it around.

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I went to Home Depot Sunday and it was packed.  I got the custom paint match and got out. 

i figured anything else i need, that i could order online at Lowe's and do a quick pickup.

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The building where I work sent out a notice that someone who works there tested positive. I haven't been there for some time but I was there after they said the person last accessed it. No worries, it was some time ago now, but it's just a continuation of the pinging that's been going on around here.

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I flexed a little on my company yesterday saying how it was rewarding to work for them and the things we are doing to assist first responders during this event. My good vibes came back to bite me in the ### last night at 6pm as a I got a call from a supplier that I had contracted with to purchase 240 HEPA air scrubbers to ship to NY and FL. They had been sold out from under us to someone else. So at 6pm on a Friday, going into the weekend during the biggest national crisis we’ve ever responded to, I had to tell my guys we couldn’t deliver product that is helping save lives because some ###### is chasing profits. My heart sank. I’ve lost deals like this in the past, it happens and you move on, make a mental note to scratch whatever company off the list to call next time and go about your day. But this is different. We see the heart wrenching videos every single day of how bad this is, it’s just not the time for chasing $$$.

Anyhow, as I’m wallowing in self pity, not 5 minutes later I get a call from one of my guys in OH...”hey beer, I found some HEPA units and I’d like to get some as we prep for the wave coming our way.” How many I ask, “I would like to get 150 but he has a shipment of 500 coming in Wednesday.” Send him my information and tell him I want all of them. I’m a man of faith, not super hard core but enough to see His hand in things when it happens. I asked for His help after the first call, within 5 minutes I got the second call.

This isn’t a PSA for religion, not trying to convert anyone or push an agenda and that’s not the focus of the post. There is hope. I firmly believe we have not crested the hill on this yet and worse times are ahead but our company has taken to posting daily “wins” so folks have something positive to see. I count this one as a little personal win :thumbup:

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9 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

It could seemingly be OK, but in keeping with some of the above detail:

- ideally, wear a mask and gloves while at HD

- let anything you buy sit untouched for 3 days

- wash your clothes in hot water after getting home

- shower after getting home

I am definitely not being careful enough.

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12 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Welp, this is another example of why MOST people doing the right thing is simply not good enough. 

A woman in town went grocery shopping sick as a dog and coughing up a lung. When people started giving her lip, she said she got tested but has not gotten her test results back yet. So she is refusing to quarantine herself until she is confirmed positive.

There is no cure for stupid.

I honestly would have hit her with a pie from the bakery.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, matttyl said:

We agree.  I’m just pointing out that any social distancing or self isolation that’s done needs to be done over a month or more, not 15 days.  All that does is delay the problem, not solve it.

This is correct... which is why there has to be a mitigation plan that involves heavy testing and isolation of the infected and everyone they came in contact with, as well as all high risk, unit, a vaccine a year to 18 months from now. I started paying attention in earnest January 23, when there were something like 100 confirmed cases in Wuhan. No matter how we tamp in down through 2-3 week lockdowns, a virus that can hide for 3 weeks in hosts and surfaces as long, and spread asymptomatically is always going to be rekindling in those numbers in hundreds or thousands of places. This is a race to control exponential growth 6-8 weeks from now, and it always will be until a vaccine or herd immunity (meaning half of everyone got it.)

I understand this quite intuitively, which is why I was paranoid in 2009 with Swine Flu (which thankfully wasn’t a Goldilocks virus like novel coronavirus), and why by February I was stocking up on supplies.

A globally connected world means until medicine advances to the point when we can battle new viruses in weeks to months, we’ll be flirting with this phenomenon every few years. 

Edited by Mr. Ham

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13 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

It could seemingly be OK, but in keeping with some of the above detail:

- ideally, wear a mask and gloves while at HD

- let anything you buy sit untouched for 3 days

- wash your clothes in hot water after getting home

- shower after getting home

Yeah I don't do any of that when I go food shopping. If I get it I get it

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32 minutes ago, tamales said:

What are your thoughts on trips to Home Depot? There's so much I can be doing around the house but that would require several trips to HD. So frustrating. 

Stores like Home Depot are open because contractors are considered essential and they need to keep getting supplies. 

Honestly, IMHO "do it yourself" people are just contracting themselves instead of someone else. I have no problem with people doing home improvement work. Getting the supplies to do it is the same as getting groceries. 

Just make good choices to keep your distance from others. 

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Posted (edited)

Guessing it was around 1998, I read an article that was very impactful. Was about Moore’s Law and tech, but it was really about exponentials. Because of this, most of us can’t see the stunning changes that the next 2 or so doublings of compute will bring, and why most can’t see the dangers of a disease like COVID-19.

Article told story of Emperor who wanted to reward the inventor of chess, and asked the inventor to name his reward. Inventor said put one grain of rice on the first square of a chess board and double it for each of the 64 squares. Without thinking twice, Emperor agreed.

By the time they got to the 32nd square, half the board, the rice needed was the volume of a large paddy. Article made the argument that that was where the world was then (1998) with tech. It’s also where we are with novel coronavirus.

From there things get profound, with each doubling getting out of hand. Taking tech as the example, each doubling from where we are today, and the resulting capabilities for things like automation and AI and quantum, will produce results we cannot even fathom now, and when those double and then double we are in a completely new reality. Most will wonder how things could have changed so totally in such a short span.

I’ve read that something like 60% of jobs that will exist in 10 years don’t even exist today.

Applying the concepts to spread of an infectious disease, when you’re approaching a curve getting you anywhere near the middle of the chess board, you better intervene.

By the 64th square, the amount of rice required is more than could be grown in the face of the planet. It’s not too many more doublings from there than that becomes the universe.

As the legend goes, the Emperor who couldn’t intuit this eventually came around and executed the inventor. I guess political leaders have always been a bit slow when it comes to these things.

Edited by Mr. Ham
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11 minutes ago, jamny said:

I am definitely not being careful enough.

I’ve taken the role for my family and parents who live not too far away as the sole “go out and get things when needed” guy.  There’s not a single outing (which are limited in quantity) where I don’t at some point screw up the don’t touch your face or other safety hygiene measure and say to myself “welp, guess I have the ‘rona now”

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10 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

A 102-year-old Italian woman has recovered from coronavirus

LINK

 

Mama Mia.  That’s one tough woman! 
 

 "The virus surrendered in front of her."

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Another "would you?" question -

considering inviting bro-in-law & family over for Easter.  Two parents, 3 kids, youngest is an infant and the other 2 are same ages as my kids.  They have been quarantining as much as we have.  SIL is a former nurse and has been taking this very seriously.  They would be traveling 4 hours.

Thoughts?

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If there is a new set of data points I’ll be tracking this week from a US POV, it’ll be Puerto Rico. They’ve jumped from 64 to 100 cases in two days, which means their rate of infection is likely doubling every 3 days which is not far off what we’re seeing in the Continental US.

Average March temp in PR is 84.

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Just now, moleculo said:

Another "would you?" question -

considering inviting bro-in-law & family over for Easter.  Two parents, 3 kids, youngest is an infant and the other 2 are same ages as my kids.  They have been quarantining as much as we have.  SIL is a former nurse and has been taking this very seriously.  They would be traveling 4 hours.

Thoughts?

No.

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52 minutes ago, tamales said:

Definitely not essential. Just frustrating to finally have time to do things around the house and can't do them

The problem with home projects is they take 37 trips to the hardware store. 

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2 minutes ago, moleculo said:

Another "would you?" question -

considering inviting bro-in-law & family over for Easter.  Two parents, 3 kids, youngest is an infant and the other 2 are same ages as my kids.  They have been quarantining as much as we have.  SIL is a former nurse and has been taking this very seriously.  They would be traveling 4 hours.

Thoughts?

If everyone wanted to do “just one thing” social or involving travel, then all of us would still be out and interacting together. 

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6 minutes ago, moleculo said:

Another "would you?" question -

considering inviting bro-in-law & family over for Easter.  Two parents, 3 kids, youngest is an infant and the other 2 are same ages as my kids.  They have been quarantining as much as we have.  SIL is a former nurse and has been taking this very seriously.  They would be traveling 4 hours.

Thoughts?

No way. Not worth it.

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51 minutes ago, Ben Hur said:
1 hour ago, tamales said:

What are your thoughts on trips to Home Depot? There's so much I can be doing around the house but that would require several trips to HD. So frustrating. 

Same.  Got a lot of projects. 

HD and Amazon deliver.  I just got a new bathroom fan delivered yesterday that I'm installing today :hifive:

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5 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

The problem with home projects is they take 37 trips to the hardware store. 

Sorry, but you needed the smaller dohickey to work with that thingamabob.  Looks like 38.

 

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Can’t Cure Stupid, Part 2

Apparently we have family in Missouri (who knew)?  Three generations living in one house. The parents and kids have ignored any directives and are going in and out of the house all day long. They go to friends, have had parties, have tons of people over, go out to anyplace still open, etc. Oh . . . perhaps they may want to consider that Grandpa has COPD and is on oxygen and lives with them! Sadly, you can’t make this stuff up. I weep for humanity. 

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Just now, moleculo said:

Another "would you?" question -

considering inviting bro-in-law & family over for Easter.  Two parents, 3 kids, youngest is an infant and the other 2 are same ages as my kids.  They have been quarantining as much as we have.  SIL is a former nurse and has been taking this very seriously.  They would be traveling 4 hours.

Thoughts?

I personally wouldn't, but I understand the desire.

I  have a lot of thoughts on this, but I'll just distill it down to two:

  • If someone got sick at some point after the get together (let alone two or more people), I'd never forgive myself and I'd always wonder if the get together was the source.
  • Quarantines take discipline; there's no such thing as a partial quarantine.  Every outside interaction carries some risk, even if it's miniscule. 
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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

Can’t Cure Stupid, Part 2

Apparently we have family in Missouri (who knew)?  Three generations living in one house. The parents and kids have ignored any directives and are going in and out of the house all day long. They go to friends, have had parties, have tons of people over, go out to anyplace still open, etc. Oh . . . perhaps they may want to consider that Grandpa has COPD and is on oxygen and lives with them! Sadly, you can’t make this stuff up. I weep for humanity. 

I saw grandpa at the store buying whiskey and donuts. 

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

I went to Home Depot Sunday and it was packed.  I got the custom paint match and got out. 

i figured anything else i need, that i could order online at Lowe's and do a quick pickup.

Even the local Ace hardware has online ordering/curbside pickup. Heading over shortly for a couple yardwork items and not leaving my car.

Edited by JaxBill
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3 minutes ago, NotSmart said:

Quarantines take discipline; there's no such thing as a partial quarantine

Lol. Its like you dont live here.

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14 minutes ago, moleculo said:

Another "would you?" question -

considering inviting bro-in-law & family over for Easter.  Two parents, 3 kids, youngest is an infant and the other 2 are same ages as my kids.  They have been quarantining as much as we have.  SIL is a former nurse and has been taking this very seriously.  They would be traveling 4 hours.

Thoughts?

One doctor said "Don't behave like you don't want to catch the virus, behave like you have it and don't want to spread it."

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4 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I saw grandpa at the store buying whiskey and donuts. 

Both essential.

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