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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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17 hours ago, TLEF316 said:

 

Of course they dont.  They've lived their lives and they dont care whether the rest of us are stuck inside for 3 months (which we're mostly doing for the benefit of them and the healthcare workers that would work to keep them from dying if they get it).

 

 

Pretty unfair blanket statement there, flipping the fault from thoughtless kids on Spring Break to clueless old folk playing cards at their club.

I will admit that these oldsters probably think their money and their club keeps them inoculated from the flu, but not nearly as egregious and most of other  demographic insensitivities.

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13 minutes ago, shader said:

 Italy reports 5,217 new cases of coronavirus and 756 new deaths, raising total to 97,689 cases and 10,779 dead

Italy is clearly turning the corner for now.

This good news?

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38 minutes ago, squistion said:

Experts I have been seen have been saying that it is 15 days before we could expect to see the number of new cases tail off. 

I don't think it's an exact number - 12 +/- 3 sounds fair.  Plus, you probably need an extra three days to know if the peak was really a peak or just normal variation.

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According to Cuomo some 76,000 medical professionals have volunteered their services to aid these overwhelmed facilities. Hats off to them. Basically running in to the burning buildings to save lives, putting their own at risk. Heroes. 

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Just now, Man In The Box said:

According to Cuomo some 76,000 medical professionals have volunteered their services to aid these overwhelmed facilities. Hats off to them. Basically running in to the burning buildings to save lives, putting their own at risk. Heroes. 

and im sure they'll all be well taken care of afterwards 🙄

history has shown us

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7 minutes ago, mr roboto said:

I still have no idea why we track “new cases“ that metric just seems to be a function of testing. Can somebody explain it to me?

in other words if everybody in the US was tested overnight somehow we would have a massive spike in “new cases“.

What else do you want to track?  Fictional cases?  We all know they aren't perfect, but they are all we have at the moment.

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17 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

I don’t want to rain on the mind-altering substance parade, but like alcohol, Kava has been linked to liver toxicity. 

Try yoga, green tea or some appropriately spaced outdoor exercise instead.

Replacing mind-altering substances with yoga, tea and exercise is like replacing your N95 mask with a screwdriver. It might be very a useful thing, but its no replacement.

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5 minutes ago, mr roboto said:

I still have no idea why we track “new cases“ that metric just seems to be a function of testing. Can somebody explain it to me?

in other words if everybody in the US was tested overnight somehow we would have a massive spike in “new cases“.

I'll take any kind of data points we can muster for novel viruses.

 

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Rumor running around the internets that China is reporting 21 million less cell phone subscribers over the time span of when this thing really took hold. Nothing from any reputable source so won’t post a link, mostly speculation. I think we all agree China is not at all honest about their numbers and it will take some anecdotal stuff like this to come up with a real number. I don’t think it’s 21 million, conversely I don’t think it’s 3,000 either. Something to keep an eye on.
 

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10 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

Speaking of warnings that so many people ignored.... remember all the COVID-19 warnings back in January and February?

From NPR on March 25: https://www.npr.org/2020/03/24/820085325/opinion-im-an-american-stuck-in-peru-glad-to-be-on-lockdown-to-avoid-covid-19

>> Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra had just declared a total quarantine for 15 days, halting all air and land transportation, even taxis. With fewer than 150 cases of coronavirus identified at the time, the Andean country was immediately going into lockdown to stem the spread of the virus. (As of Tuesday, Peru — with about 32 million people — has identified 395 infection cases and five deaths from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus.) <<

There will be lots of data forthcoming on the effectiveness of early total lockdowns on the spread of coronavirus, and on the local economies.  Population density matters. There are many large cities in Europe, Latin America and elsewhere. Lima's population is almost 11 million. Even in smaller towns, people tend to live closer together in Latin America than in the USA - fewer single family homes with large yards. The role of large social gatherings in the spread is huge - the funeral in Albany, GA and the Winter Party Festival in Miami Beach on March 8 come to mind. Cruise ships, ALFs and nursing homes are in another category altogether.

Just heard from a Peruvian friend that the curfew in Peru will be extended 2 more weeks. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Koya said:

 

Gents, I hid my post so as not to run afoul of the direction of the mods. My intent was not at all political but rather to focus on what strategies work and what don’t. I mean, what value is this thread if we don’t actually discuss the realities of what is and is not in our best interests for health and well being as individuals, and a nation of communities.

That said, kindly hide your posts or eliminate the quotes so we remain “in line”

Enjoy the Sunday all and most of all, best of health as we look to another week.

Thank you.

There are numerous threads in the other forum for expressing these type of opinions where it would be welcome.

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2 minutes ago, belljr said:

This good news?

For now, definitely.  It gives medical professionals a "light at the end of the tunnel" and hints that a cataclysmic catastrophe isn't going to happen there in the next 2-3 weeks.

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3 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

and im sure they'll all be well taken care of afterwards 🙄

history has shown us

I’m not going to speculate on any of that now. I was just in awe of the number of volunteers. 
 

One of my hopes during all of this has been that when we get through this, we all learn from it and treat each other better, and not just temporarily but permanently. 

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1 minute ago, Man In The Box said:

I’m not going to speculate on any of that now. I was just in awe of the number of volunteers. 

it's great to see. no doubt.

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8 minutes ago, shader said:

 

What else do you want to track?  Fictional cases?  We all know they aren't perfect, but they are all we have at the moment.

Trust me, I get it. But then we look at places like China where we have no idea if they’re even reporting true numbers and compare our social policies to them.

Hospitalizations and deaths are really the only numbers that matter when it comes to concerns about overwhelming the healthcare system the problem is those are lagging indicators of the spread of the infection.

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12 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Pretty unfair blanket statement there, flipping the fault from thoughtless kids on Spring Break to clueless old folk playing cards at their club.

I will admit that these oldsters probably think their money and their club keeps them inoculated from the flu, but not nearly as egregious and most of other  demographic insensitivities.

 

Understood, but I'm done giving anyone the benefit of the doubt on this.

I expect more out of the 65+ crowd (assuming they're not senile) than I do of idiot college kids.

I've always been pessimistic about people by nature, but this whole situation has just pushed me over the edge.  Between China covering this up, our idiot government (both sides) response and the morons of all ages that are facilitating the spread, I'm just going to assume everyone is a piece of crap going forward.

When i meet new people in the future, I'm going to assume they're an idiot that attend a Corona-virus party until they prove otherwise.

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4 minutes ago, shader said:

For now, definitely.  It gives medical professionals a "light at the end of the tunnel" and hints that a cataclysmic catastrophe isn't going to happen there in the next 2-3 weeks.

I think it was in the video of Doctor Voung explaining the peak that we have to remember if peak is 100,000, coming down from the peak means the next day is 95,000 and the next day, 90,000 and so on. There will still be a lot people affected by this after we hit peak numbers.

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2 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

Absolutely.

And not just the CDC. Every doctor that gave interviews and such guidance.

It literally makes no sense. There is no study that backs up their claims. It defies all logic. 

They dont work, but we need them. They dont work, stay 6 feet away from everybody. They dont work, but 

Don't wear one, well unless you are sick. Then wear one. Did we mention we think there are people that are sick and don't know it? 

If you have cystic fibrosis...

But they don't work...

 

 

I don't like the government and medical community lying to me, but I certainly understand it. If not for those dubious statements, the hospital shortages would be even more critical than they are now. Now that production and distribution issues may be solved, they're walking it back.

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1 hour ago, DallasDMac said:

Saw a news story today on the number of nurses quitting jobs because of the lack of PPE. Sad when our friggin' doctors and nurses can't get masks to wear while treating the sick, yet Bubba Prepper has a fresh mask every time he steps out on the porch to get the mail  out of his mailbox.

The PPE situation is a national tragedy - it is already in the process of costing lives.

However the preppers are not the ones to blame - they bought their masks from retail.

The Federal government is responsible for planning for disasters such as a pandemic, ensuring an adequate national stockpile of essential PPE, and having detailed plans ready to go for increasing PPE purchasing and production when disasters occur or are anticipated.

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1 minute ago, mr roboto said:

Trust me, I get it. But then we look at places like China where we have no idea if they’re even reporting true numbers and compare our social policies to them.

Hospitalizations and deaths are really the only numbers that matter when it comes to concerns about overwhelming the healthcare system the problem is those are lagging indicators of the spread of the infection.

There is a lot of uncertainty right now in the numbers.  I never trusted China, then I started trusting them on the back of the WHO.  Was that smart? I have no idea.  

I don't think there is a lot of benefit in comparing China to Italy to the USA.  The quarantines are all totally different.

We know from basic logic that after 2 weeks, quarantine measures will have an impact.  Whatever the R0 value is will fall when people aren't in close connection with each other.  We don't need any numbers to realize that.

Also, China's quarantine in Hubei province was EXTREMELY tight.  Italy's seems tight too, but they can still get out to the grocery store.  The United States has differing levels of social distancing.  These will work, but how much?  Who really knows.

 

Italy is a bit confusing/perplexing.  We have their numbers, but we already suspect their number of cases are significantly wrong. I mean their death rate is well over 10% and that seems extraordinarily high.  So how "off" are they?  Are their "reported" cases tracking along with their "actual" cases?  

I think it's clear that it took 2 weeks for Italy to start seeing a lessening of their rate of growth and almost 3 weeks for them to see a lessening of their number of deaths.  Those numbers will likely hold throughout the world, just due to the nature of this virus.

But to me, the USA is it's own animal due to many reasons.  We know the rate of change will go down soon, but by how much?  That's just impossible to predict, imo, and will vary from state to state.

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10 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

 

Understood, but I'm done giving anyone the benefit of the doubt on this.

I expect more out of the 65+ crowd (assuming they're not senile) than I do of idiot college kids.

I've always been pessimistic about people by nature, but this whole situation has just pushed me over the edge.  Between China covering this up, our idiot government (both sides) response and the morons of all ages that are facilitating the spread, I'm just going to assume everyone is a piece of crap going forward.

When i meet new people in the future, I'm going to assume they're an idiot that attend a Corona-virus party until they prove otherwise.

You're a Jets fan and I'm a Bills fan, so we have our differences.  But what we have in common is that our faith in humankind was mercifully extinguished at a young age.  We know most people are bumbling incompetents and hope for anything better is just setting ourselves up to be disappointed.

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Posted (edited)

MASKS

  • Every thing I know about their effectiveness I’ve learned from YouTube
  • They do help stopping the spread of droplets if you are sick. When you cough or sneeze they help contain it so you’re not blasting it into the space around you
  • They do provide some benefit to first responders from getting it from someone who has it when they cough or sneeze and are not wearing a mask
  • The main and overriding benefit of wearing a mask for John Q. Public is it reduces the amount of time you touch your face with your hand that have the virus on it. That’s the biggy folks, nothing more, nothing less. Wash your hands, quit touching your face. A mask is a means to an end.

Edit to add - make your own :D https://youtu.be/mai-UqdNRi8

Edited by beer 30
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1 hour ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

This. All the warnings are much appreciated. It must be exhausting being a mod here and giving all the warnings. Warning after warning after warning after warning after warning. It's almost impossible to thank you each and every time.

From all of us, from the bottom of our hearts, with absolutely no sarcasm whatsoever, thank you.

Just starting giving 2 week then 2 month timeouts to repeat offenders.

It's no secret that there are a very small number of dimwits that don't get it. 

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10 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

I think it was in the video of Doctor Voung explaining the peak that we have to remember if peak is 100,000, coming down from the peak means the next day is 95,000 and the next day, 90,000 and so on. There will still be a lot people affected by this after we hit peak numbers.

Totally agree.  In no way are they out of the woods.  They can't loosen their quarantine AT ALL, they can't stop what they are doing, and they are still in a devastating situation.

Yes, more people with Covid-19 are still going to come to the hospitals in Italy and die.  The initial peak of ICU beds is probably still in the future there (maybe another week or so?).  BUT...at least the medical professionals know that the explosive growth has stopped and they are almost over the hump for the initial outbreak?    

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The first amendment in action: https://riverlive.churchonline.org/

I don't think the government can shut down events at churches or on Indian lands. The Seminoles shut down Hard Rock early, but it took about a week for the Miccosukees west of Miami to shutdown, under pressure from Desantis and others.

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Posted (edited)

New York's AM update has 6,120 cases and 85 deaths.

Yesterday (both updates) they were at 7,131 and 277 deaths.

For whatever reason, their AM update is usually the one where the majority of the cases are reported, and their PM update is usually where the majority of the deaths are reported.

Edited by shader

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6 minutes ago, shader said:

.

 

Italy is a bit confusing/perplexing.  We have their numbers, but we already suspect their number of cases are significantly wrong. I mean their death rate is well over 10% and that seems extraordinarily high.  So how "off" are they?  Are their "reported" cases tracking along with their "actual" cases?  

 

Maybe the numbers are off, but you'd expect the mortality rate to skyrocket when the healthcare system is overrun.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

MASKS

  • Every thing I know about their effectiveness I’ve learned from YouTube
  • They do help stopping the spread of droplets if you are sick. When you cough or sneeze they help contain it so you’re not blasting it into the space around you
  • They do provide some benefit to first responders from getting it from someone who has it when they cough or sneeze and are not wearing a mask
  • The main and overriding benefit of wearing a mask for John Q. Public is it reduces the amount of time you touch your face with your hand that have the virus on it. That’s the biggy folks, nothing more, nothing less. Wash your hands, quit touching your face. A mask is a means to an end.

Edit to add - make your own :D https://youtu.be/mai-UqdNRi8

:sigh: 

For the 294,297th time... no. 

Edited by [icon]
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Just now, pollardsvision said:

Maybe the numbers are off, but you'd expect the mortality rate to skyrocket when the healthcare system is overrun.

100% agree. 

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2 hours ago, moleculo said:

I think the need is a hell of a lot bigger than that.  Assume 330M Americans needing 1 mask per day....the need is closer to 120B per year.

I saw one small company making covers for the n95 masks. They can just toss the cover. If it works, good idea.

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47 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I don't like the government and medical community lying to me, but I certainly understand it. If not for those dubious statements, the hospital shortages would be even more critical than they are now. Now that production and distribution issues may be solved, they're walking it back.

When the stuff in red happen?

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Fauchi was just on. Said will agree to loosen up restrictions when the curve has been shown to be declining, not at the apex.

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1 hour ago, gianmarco said:
1 hour ago, Politician Spock said:

Speaking of warnings that so many people ignored.... remember all the COVID-19 warnings back in January and February?

Yep -- Yet another beating of the dead horse -- China warned Italy.  Italy warned us. Now NYC is warning us......

Edited 1 hour ago by gianmarco

China didn't warn Italy. Italy didn't warn the U.S. 

This is all revisionist history - and we're only talking January. Not exactly ancient history.

Anyone ever notice how this thread get mysteriously a little shorter from time to time? Peeps are going back and deleting their posts from this time.

In January we were still calling it the Wuhan Virus and no one had their panties in a twist.

Now everyone gets to act like "Oh I knew all along" OK, sure sure good for you.

I won't get political but politicians on both sides didn't grasp the severity - and yes both sides were trying to politicize it as much as possible. So were athletes and celebrities but I don't really care about them.

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3 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:

Fauchi was just on. Said will agree to loosen up restrictions when the curve has been shown to be declining, not at the apex.

I don’t have a lot of faith that restrictions will be loosened at the proper time.

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2 hours ago, Doug B said:

The CDC hasn’t reversed anything yet. So far, it’s been an unsupported tweet that has said that.

I do expect the guidance to change — but it hasn’t happened yet.

gotcha, thanks for the heads up.

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On the bright side, less air pollution

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I'm still traveling for work using a very liberal definition of "essential."  The company we contract with is very much in an essential sector, but it's kind of a stretch to apply it to what we are doing for that company.   I've been transitioning into a management position which means less travel and more office time, but right now it's all hands on deck.  EVERYONE we have available to travel currently is.  The only ones not are admin and clerical.  All of us traveling carry on our person a letter stating we are allowed to be where we are.  Some of those left in the office are expressing some concerns about the rest of us returning.  I can understand that. 

I get what the company is doing.  We are trying to cram several months worth of work into a few weeks in the event that things get locked down even more, which I'm guessing they will.  We are driving everywhere instead of flying and staying away from facilities that are occupied by several people to help mitigate some of the risk, but you can't help but come in contact with some.  Someone mentioned convenience stores.  It's like a game in there.  Start walking down one aisle and reverse course to find an alternate route if someone is already in it.  Then you end up getting blocked in by people who just don't care.

It helps knowing that the work I did last week will keep a couple of others employed for a few months.  Not concerned about myself, but it's hard not to think we are part of the problem.  One of our contacts who is an older guy a year away from retirement did tell us to stay away.  I didn't question him or try to push it.  Completely get his reasoning and the work will still be there for us when we get a chance to get back to his region.

I've been home all weekend and have stayed away from everyone.  Heading out again on Monday for a couple weeks.

 

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7 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

China didn't warn Italy. Italy didn't warn the U.S. 

This is all revisionist history - and we're only talking January. Not exactly ancient history.

 

Link?  I'm 100% sure that there were enough scientists who can get the ear of decision makers in this country that warned about the severity very early on and saw this coming.  Whether the general public grasped it is another story but that's where I think we needed leadership to clue us in.  It didn't happen and it was a huge miss.

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8 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

China didn't warn Italy. Italy didn't warn the U.S. 

This is all revisionist history - and we're only talking January. Not exactly ancient history.

Anyone ever notice how this thread get mysteriously a little shorter from time to time? Peeps are going back and deleting their posts from this time.

In January we were still calling it the Wuhan Virus and no one had their panties in a twist.

Now everyone gets to act like "Oh I knew all along" OK, sure sure good for you.

I won't get political but politicians on both sides didn't grasp the severity - and yes both sides were trying to politicize it as much as possible. So were athletes and celebrities but I don't really care about them.

We were absolutely warned. Take this bs spin to the PSF.

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1 minute ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Link?  I'm 100% sure that there were enough scientists who can get the ear of decision makers in this country that warned about the severity very early on and saw this coming.  Whether the general public grasped it is another story but that's where I think we needed leadership to clue us in.  It didn't happen and it was a huge miss.

Exactly. 

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1 minute ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

Link?  I'm 100% sure that there were enough scientists who can get the ear of decision makers in this country that warned about the severity very early on and saw this coming.  Whether the general public grasped it is another story but that's where I think we needed leadership to clue us in.  It didn't happen and it was a huge miss.

I quoted the link. There was nothing in there other than the author stating it. Even WHO was parroting China's lies in January.

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54 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Just starting giving 2 week then 2 month timeouts to repeat offenders.

It's no secret that there are a very small number of dimwits that don't get it. 

They give timeouts with no warning in the PSF.

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1 hour ago, beer 30 said:

I’ll keep posting this because this thread moves so fast so please don’t get bent at me for the repetitiveness of this but....make your own

https://youtu.be/mai-UqdNRi8

:goodposting:

:goodposting:  probably gonna try this today just for something to do, thanks for the vid.

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It’s not political to say that the US government had plenty of warning and reacted very slowly.  That’s clear and undeniable.  What’s political (I guess) is to put blame on individuals and political parties.  
 

But overall, the US responded horribly, (mwhich is why this country has the most cases in the world and that number is still soaring

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

China didn't warn Italy. Italy didn't warn the U.S. 

This is all revisionist history - and we're only talking January. Not exactly ancient history.

Anyone ever notice how this thread get mysteriously a little shorter from time to time? Peeps are going back and deleting their posts from this time.

In January we were still calling it the Wuhan Virus and no one had their panties in a twist.

Now everyone gets to act like "Oh I knew all along" OK, sure sure good for you.

I won't get political but politicians on both sides didn't grasp the severity - and yes both sides were trying to politicize it as much as possible. So were athletes and celebrities but I don't really care about them.

Yes, we did know what was coming. No, Italy didn’t send a delegation to the US to formally declare that we need to be wary. What are you talking about??

Edited by Jobber

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

I quoted the link. There was nothing in there other than the author stating it. Even WHO was parroting China's lies in January.

The WHO has been all over this since they flew to China and saw what was happening first hand. They warned the USA (and everybody) far in advance of the USA doing anything about it.  The USA did not listen. 
 

I get that you have some weird dislike of the WHO but they’ve sounded all the alarms here and provided great info that would have helped countries (had those countries read the info)

Edited by shader
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How is it still March? That’s not right is it? It has to be June by now. 

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