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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

Big League Chew said:
How often are you guys grocery shopping ? I’ve been goin  maybe once every 2-3 weeks or so. 
 

we let my sister in-law and her boyfriend stay with us since they both lost their jobs. They’re going 2-3 times a week ?!
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We aren’t going at all. We’ve ordered Amazon Fresh deliveries twice so far.  They just put groceries in the garage and grab their tip and leave. Seems safer to me, but who knows. 

 
Big League Chew said:
How often are you guys grocery shopping ? I’ve been goin  maybe once every 2-3 weeks or so. 
 

we let my sister in-law and her boyfriend stay with us since they both lost their jobs. They’re going 2-3 times a week ?!
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I work in a grocery store so everyday. And if anyone has a BJ's near them, I was in one Tuesday morning at 9 and they had paper towels, TP, eggs and Lysol spray. 

 
One positive thing of the pandemic  is having pizza chains have finally put an end to the questionable practice of putting their bare hands all over our freshly made pizzas

 
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Grace Under Pressure said:
The U.S. compared to the European countries is really striking. We're not doing this right people. Not going to post stats, they're all on Worldometer. 
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I just checked, as we near day's end (several US states still to report), on today's stats at COVID worldometers.   

I suppose the good news is that in general, numbers are steady with yesterday ..not an exponential increase, but linear.  The U.S. is close to being the exception (again, with several states still to report).  Has, or can, the U.S. stop the exponential trend?

The other looming question is what happens in other, less-developed countries.  Many of them have modest numbers right now.  But the balance, I think is between (a) successfully having learned from the rest of the world's experiences, vs. (b) their challenges of social distancing and fewer high-end medical resources.  

 
nirad3 said:
Not shocking.  Our kids go through June so no sense in bringing them back for a month or whatever.  

We already got one Chromebook, picking the second up tomorrow.

God bless my wife who's been the one leading the charge on keeping the kids in a learning environment.  I am considered "essential" so I'm at my deserted office M-F from 8-4.
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I've been coordinating education at home (while also working from home) for the past couple of days. Finally, our local school district got their act together and started providing direction for study at home. Picked up the Chromebook today for our daughter and our son gets his on Friday.

I bought a bunch of cheap ($10 or so) science experiment kits from Amazon and the kids had a great time with their first one today. Going to let them rip open a different box each week and go to town with at-home experimentation, applying the Scientific Method, etc. It kept them occupied for a couple of hours.

 
cheese said:
We aren’t going at all. We’ve ordered Amazon Fresh deliveries twice so far.  They just put groceries in the garage and grab their tip and leave. Seems safer to me, but who knows. 
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Same, it’s excellent. And I plan for this to be my new normal after this whole nightmare is over. 

 
Penguin said:
Reported US coronavirus cases:

0 to 100,000 cases: 66 days

100,000 to 200,000 cases: 5 days

We're about 10 days out from 100k new cases a day
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I doubt it will happen that quickly.  I think we will see a leveling off soon.  But leveling off in the 20-30k range isn’t a good place to level off.  

 
On a weird note, I went for a walk with my kids at lunch today and my daughter found a full-grown bearded dragon lizard sunning itself in the middle of the street. It was obviously a former pet but not sure if it was an escapee or had been released by someone who didn't want to care for it anymore. Not about to go door to door to find out, so "finder's keepers" for better or for worse. It's completely tame. My son's been wanting one for a long time so they brought it home and now we have to figure out how to keep it alive. I'm assuming bearded dragons don't carry coronavirus :ph34r: ...

 
dickey moe said:
On a weird note, I went for a walk with my kids at lunch today and my daughter found a full-grown bearded dragon lizard sunning itself in the middle of the street. It was obviously a former pet but not sure if it was an escapee or had been released by someone who didn't want to care for it anymore. Not about to go door to door to find out, so "finder's keepers" for better or for worse. It's completely tame. My son's been wanting one for a long time so they brought it home and now we have to figure out how to keep it alive. I'm assuming bearded dragons don't carry coronavirus :ph34r: ...
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I am not sure how to keep one alive, but I can tell you what not to do. My daughter inherited one of those things and loved to get it out and play with it. Then one day she decided to let it play with our dog.  It freaked out and then died about 24 hours later. Don't let it play with your furry other pets is all I'm saying.

 
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rcam said:
Not convinced. I really think there is some wishful thinking involved here. When you have both Vo Italy and the Diamond Princess performing comprehensive testing on 6700 people (this is about as controlled an environment you are going to get for now), for the death rate to be anywhere near .1%, literally everyone on that ship and town would need to be positive for the virus. You would then need to conjure up 4000 more people from thin air and have them be positive as well. Considering, only about 800 tested positive out of the 6700 (and we are missing the 4000 imaginary people). That is a boatload of positive people that we are missing. The second article bases its research on China's numbers which we know are bogus.

This underestimation happened with SARS too. I think people just don't want to believe the facts in front of them (or want to put the most optimistic view forward). For any of these rates significantly below 1% we have to be missing absolute boatloads of positive people. We're talking millions and millions. Just in the United States, if no one else died, we are missing 216,000 people to get to 1%. To get to .1% we are missing about 3.9 million positive people. That is with a death rate of death/total positive cases and all active cases not dying. If we just look at resolved cases (assuming the unresolved cases are of similar severity and outcome to the resolved ones) we are missing 6.6 million positive people to get to 1% and 68 million positive cases to get to .1%.

Just think, in the press conference yesterday, the Administration was flooring 100000 deaths currently. For that to be .1% mortality rate we'd need about 100 million Americans positive. For their ceiling of 240000 we would need 240 million Americans positive.
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Pretty sure those are derived from estimates of the number infected to achieve herd immunity, for the range of likely Ro.

Herd immunity threshold = 1 - 1/(1-Ro)

 
Jayrod said:
I am not sure how to keep one alive, but I can tell you what not to do. My daughter inherited one of those things and love to get it out and play with it. Then one day she decided to let it play with our dog.  It's freaked out and then died about 24 hours later. Don't let it play with your furry other pets is all I'm saying.
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They actually make leashes for the darned things.

 
dickey moe said:
On a weird note, I went for a walk with my kids at lunch today and my daughter found a full-grown bearded dragon lizard sunning itself in the middle of the street. It was obviously a former pet but not sure if it was an escapee or had been released by someone who didn't want to care for it anymore. Not about to go door to door to find out, so "finder's keepers" for better or for worse. It's completely tame. My son's been wanting one for a long time so they brought it home and now we have to figure out how to keep it alive. I'm assuming bearded dragons don't carry coronavirus :ph34r: ...
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Posts like this make me miss the olden days of this forum, when somebody would have started a Somebody Stole My Bearded Dragon Lizard thread by now. 

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Wow. 

Louisiana numbers today:

197 new hospitalizations (1355 total)

53 new on vents (438 total)

34 new deaths (239 total)

4934 new tests complete (38967 total)

1212 new positives (5237 total)

for a 24.6% positive rate, the biggest one-day positive rate yet (since I've been tracking it, almost a week now)
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Today's, slightly down from yesterday, but not much. I imagine this to be the jagged chart line still very much on the upswing, for another couple of weeks at the minimum:

143 new hospitalizations (1498 total)

52 new on vents (490 total)

54 new deaths (273 total)

6809 new tests complete (45776 total)

1187 new positives (6424 total)

for a 17.4% positive rate of new cases to new tests performed...

Which leads me to a question. Of the other 82.6% that were negative, what the heck did they have? I know some of them could just be precautionary testing for healthcare workers, etc. but that still seems like a high number. I guess we won't ever get the full answer on those numbers, and they may not even be collecting that type of data, may or may not have tested for other illnesses before/after Covid-19, etc., but just curious. @Doug B any thoughts on that?

 
shader said:
We've done the death rate thing so many times.  First of all, I think it's important to know why someone wants to discuss the death rate.  Why is a particular death rate "important"?  As an example, 1%?  Who decided that 1% was an ok number and anything below that is good, and above that is bad?  I have answers for that, but can't express them in this forum.

Models have their place, but they are just models.  Cuomo had a great line on models today.  He said that the frustrating thing about models is that they always change, and that's because we're always feeding new info into them.

As an example, the death rate numbers are HEAVILY dependent on Chinese data.  South Korea and China are the only two countries that have seen the back side of this virus (on a large scale).  If it turned out that China was lying and we have to toss out their numbers, who is the next hard-hit country to analyze?  Italy? I sure hope not, because their death rate looks atrocious at the moment.

I'm going to steal Cuomo's line on facts.  Facts are facts.  

The facts are that the non-China death rate is currently 4.9%.  In Italy it's almost 12%.  Yes, we know that there are a large number of cases that are likely not being counted.  But on the other hand, of all active cases, there are still a lot of people who unfortunately haven't died yet.  Death rates will always rise at the end of an outbreak. (see South Korea who had always been way below 1%, and as they've virtually eliminated new cases, they've seen their death rate rise to 2%)

In the end, the final death rate will end up being lower than it is.  By how much, who really knows or cares?  But using a "fantasy" death rate to try and prove why this virus is no big deal is an argument that I won't entertain any longer.

One last thing on Vo.  Yeah they did have a bunch of asymptomatic cases (at the time the study was done, we still don't know how many of those eventually became symptomatic), but even so they had 1 death among 89 people, so a CFR higher than 1%.
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The percent hospitalized, the subset requiring ICU care and duration of hospitalization are far more important numbers.

Like comparisons to the flu, any talk rationalizing lower mortality/case fatality rates misses the big picture, and undermines efforts to contain the pandemic. 

 
dickey moe said:
On a weird note, I went for a walk with my kids at lunch today and my daughter found a full-grown bearded dragon lizard sunning itself in the middle of the street. It was obviously a former pet but not sure if it was an escapee or had been released by someone who didn't want to care for it anymore. Not about to go door to door to find out, so "finder's keepers" for better or for worse. It's completely tame. My son's been wanting one for a long time so they brought it home and now we have to figure out how to keep it alive. I'm assuming bearded dragons don't carry coronavirus :ph34r: ...
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You need to get a 20-30 gallon aquarium, some good substrate and the appropriate lighting. They have to be kept warm, but you have to be careful not to use like a 100 watt bulb. Mealworms and such for food. Reptiles are fun (we have had a few) but man, do you have to work at them to keep them alive. 

Buying something like this   may be your best bet to make your life easy.

 
Charlotte folks> Sugar Creek Brewery has a whole warehouse of kegs they are offering at 1/2 price. 

For those that don't know, their head brewer, Joel Vogelbacher, was featured in the Netflix movie Beers of Joy and just was awarded the level of master cicerone, the 19th man in the world to do so.

Go buy a keg of Sugar Creek!

Eta: also free (local) delivery for orders >$30.

 
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Judge Smails said:
Not sure if this has been posted already. Longer video but I thought it was hugely beneficial for understanding.  How not to get infected.  Simple  .  What to do for your family if you do  

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WxyH1rkuLaw&feature=youtu.be
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Thank you for posting this.  While there are some people out there still not taking this seriously, my sense is that there are quite a few people who are over-reacting to miniscule or outright nonexistent risks (like walking around outside by themselves).  Videos like this help.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Pretty sure those are derived from estimates of the number infected to achieve herd immunity, for the range of likely Ro.

Herd immunity threshold = 1 - 1/(1-Ro)
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Really? For 100000 deaths and .1% mortality rate that is putting the Ro at ~1.4

.1% @ Ro=1.4 seems exceedingly optimistic. 

 
What the hell is Wisconsin thinking? Gov. Tony Evers refuses to delay the primaries and will bring in the national guard to help at the polls. 

 
Interesting press conference. Must be a huge amount of drugs trying to be shipped across our southern border while we are battling the virus.

 
moleculo said:
Charlotte folks> Sugar Creek Brewery has a whole warehouse of kegs they are offering at 1/2 price. 

For those that don't know, their head brewer, Joel Vogelbacher, was featured in the Netflix movie Beers of Joy and just was awarded the level of master cicerone, the 19th man in the world to do so.

Go buy a keg of Sugar Creek!

Eta: also free (local) delivery for orders >$30.
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:lol:  What would I do with a keg?  Never really had a lot of Sugar Creek.

 
CurlyNight said:
It was a rally in disguise. 
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We may be considered vulnerable to those that might want to take the opportunity to harm us. I think it was a clear statement to both our neighbors to the south and abroad that the US will have none of it right now. Not a political discussion but a sad reality connected to this virus. 

 
bradyfan said:
ABC: Target, Walmart, Costco ordered to stop in-person sales of nonessential items in Vermont

MONTPELIER, Vt. (WZTV) - Big box retailers like Target, Walmart and Costco are being ordered to stop in-person sales of nonessential items in some areas.

Vermont Gov. Phil Scott added this to his original executive order amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Such nonessential items, as detailed by the state, include things like beauty supplies, arts and crafts, clothes, electronics and more.

Rather, according to The Agency of Commerce and Community Development, these stores are being asked to stick to items like food, pharmacy and beverages.
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I don't get it.

 
bradyfan said:
ABC: Target, Walmart, Costco ordered to stop in-person sales of nonessential items in Vermont

MONTPELIER, Vt. (WZTV) - Big box retailers like Target, Walmart and Costco are being ordered to stop in-person sales of nonessential items in some areas.

Vermont Gov. Phil Scott added this to his original executive order amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Such nonessential items, as detailed by the state, include things like beauty supplies, arts and crafts, clothes, electronics and more.

Rather, according to The Agency of Commerce and Community Development, these stores are being asked to stick to items like food, pharmacy and beverages.
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Kind of ridiculous to me. The items they consider essential is so arbitrary. Someone can buy soda, but oh my goodness, not construction paper and glue!

 
Cjw_55106 said:
Kind of ridiculous to me. The items they consider essential is so arbitrary. Someone can buy soda, but oh my goodness, not construction paper and glue!
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Seriously.  My kids are 9 and 7 and the "curriculum" provided by our school district takes up about 4 hours - at maximum - every day.  We need to keep them busy with art projects and the like.  And what if I wanna buy some socks? Really?

 
jamny said:
We may be considered vulnerable to those that might want to take the opportunity to harm us. I think it was a clear statement to both our neighbors to the south and abroad that the US will have none of it right now. Not a political discussion but a sad reality connected to this virus. 
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True, but still. It was labelled as a cv update because everyone would be watching. Cv is on now.

 
So hard to stay up on all this.  Can we get like a daily summary in bulletpoint format, or a cliff's notes, or something.

The news over the past couple weeks, at least for folks here in NY, seemed to be "holy crap" with some new huge revelation every day.  Not it seems like each day is just more of the same -- numbers increasing a lot, healthcare and supplies overwhelmed, stay home.  But really nothing monumental.

Sound right?  

 
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