msommer
Footballguy
Long time before then, it'll be onI have tickets to the EUROs in June... I've invested a considerable amount in that already. Let's hope it still goes on.
Long time before then, it'll be onI have tickets to the EUROs in June... I've invested a considerable amount in that already. Let's hope it still goes on.
So we shouldn't be trying to "imagine 33 million people (10% of US population) heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care" at the same time because that's not reality. Right?81% of people that get it have mild cases.
14 percent are severe and 5% critical, IF you believe the numbers in the Chinese study.
That study also indicates that for people 39 and under, death rate is .2%
The key is how many of those severe cases need ICU and what happens if they don’t get treated.
ONLY if age spread on the cruise ship is similar to the rest of the world's. My personal feeling is that the demographics of cruise passengers are older, but that may be prejudice.Cruise ship is a pretty solid indicator. Already (we are early) 4 deaths from 703 cases. That’s 5 times as deadly as flu and that number should rise.
As a blanket assertion, for all hospitals everywhere in the U.S.? I disagree with you. It's a mixed bag, yes. But not a universally overwhelmed system at present.Okay then you should be aware that they can't handle the load they currently have.
Having been on a 2 week cruise in February before - the passengers skewed much, much older than the general population.ONLY if age spread on the cruise ship is similar to the rest of the world's. My personal feeling is that the demographics of cruise passengers are older, but that may be prejudice.
Not really. Not to me, anyway. Just sounds like a vague prediction that things won't necessarily get as bad in North America ... essentially, that the U.S. and Canada would more or less absorb a certain level** of COVID patients. Up to a point, anyway.Seems like a major conspiracy theory
Read somewhere that 200 passengers on Diamond Princess were 80 or older. That's about 5%Having been on a 2 week cruise in February before - the passengers skewed much, much older that the general population.
Lets say 2MM Americans get infected. I honestly, think that is a realistic number if the virus really has transmission factor between R2 and R4 (current estimates) and it does not end up contained. If 5% are critical and they need ICU care that is 100,000 people in need of ICU care. There are not enouch ICU beds available for that level of care. That is the biggest issue I think we face as a country. Our healthcare system sucks and won't be able to adapt. China just goes ahead and builds a hospital if they need one. We haven't been able to pull big public works projects off since the 1960s and you have to go back to WWII when we could do huge national moblizations that such a scenario presents.So we shouldn't be trying to "imagine 33 million people (10% of US population) people heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care" at the same time because that's not reality. Right?
There’s about 540k total hospital beds in US. 94k ICU beds.So we shouldn't be trying to "imagine 33 million people (10% of US population) heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care" at the same time because that's not reality. Right?
I'll believe that when I see it ... and maybe not even then.So we shouldn't be trying to "imagine 33 million people (10% of US population) heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care" at the same time because that's not reality. Right?
Depends on the cruise, but that’s definitely a good point.ONLY if age spread on the cruise ship is similar to the rest of the world's. My personal feeling is that the demographics of cruise passengers are older, but that may be prejudice.
This is an important point. Everyone won't get it at the same time. That said, it may still overwhelm the capacity availableI also don't think -- even at it's very worst -- that COVID-19 gets to the point that 35 million Americans (~10%) will need hospitalization all at the same time.
Where does this come from?There’s about 540k total hospital beds in US. 94k ICU beds.
The patients with severe cases last 3-6 weeks. Surely you can see where this could become a major problem if even one million people had severe cases.
https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-StatisticsWhere does this come from?
Sure, it could be a problem if one million people had to be hospitalized all at the same time. Why / how would that occur?
Google is telling me there were around 900K hospital beds in 2017. Can't find accurate 2020 numbers.There’s about 540k total hospital beds in US. 94k ICU beds.
The patients with severe cases last 3-6 weeks. Surely you can see where this could become a major problem if even one million people had severe cases.
Where does this come from?
Sure, it could be a problem if one million people had to be hospitalized all at the same time. Why / how would that occur?
Plus, "number of ICU beds" is not a finite number -- or necessarily even a relevant number.Where does this come from?There’s about 540k total hospital beds in US. 94k ICU beds.
The patients with severe cases last 3-6 weeks. Surely you can see where this could become a major problem if even one million people had severe cases.
Sure, it could be a problem if one million people had to be hospitalized all at the same time. Why / how would that occur?
Hard to look at China. One of the most opaque places in the world, as you are aware.https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics
Look at what happened in China. They built god damn hospitals in a week since existing framework couldn't handle it.
Info from link:
AHA data: According to the AHA 2015 annual survey, the United States had 4862 acute care registered hospitals; 2814 of these had at least 10 acute care beds and at least 1 ICU bed. These hospitals had a total of 540,668 staffed beds and 94,837 ICU beds (14.3% ICU beds/total beds) in 5229 ICUs. There were 46,490 medical-surgical beds in 2644 units, 14,731 cardiac beds in 976 units, 6588 other beds in 379 units, 4698 pediatric beds in 307 units, and 22,330 neonatal beds in 920 units. The median number of beds in medical-surgical, cardiac, and other units was 12, with 10 beds in pediatrics and 18 in neonatal. Fifty-two percent of hospitals had 1 unit, 24% had 2 units, and 24% had 3 or more units.
Where does this estimate come from? Why would 20 million all have it at the same time?
If 20 million people in the US had it at the same time, then 5% is 1 million. 20 million seems conservative
Yeah it looks like 900k seems more accurate. Perhaps the original numbers I had were wrong. Either way, nowhere near enough capacity if it breaks to 40-60% of the population.Google is telling me there were around 900K hospital beds in 2017. Can't find accurate 2020 numbers.
Why would it break to 40-60 percent of the population at precisely the same time?Yeah it looks like 900k seems more accurate. Perhaps the original numbers I had were wrong. Either way, nowhere near enough capacity if it breaks to 40-60% of the population.
Ok, even with some increase since 2015, I doubt we have more than 100K ICU beds in this country. Hopefully, it remains contained because if it doesn't it could be a huge problem. ICU beds are typically full of folks coming off of surgery/other issues. Not like there are 100k empty bed sitting around. A huge flux of folks coming in for this virus could be bad when you look at a system that is already heavily used. Of course, I hope I am wrong.Had to look at China. Not the most opaque place in the word, as you are aware.
Why would they not? Why are you downplaying the potential of this? There have been links and podcasts and scientists that have been provided in this thread that show that up to 40-60% of the population could get it.Where does this estimate come from? Why would 20 million all have it at the same time?
Agree with you it wouldn't but it doesn't need to create issues.Why would it break to 40-60 percent of the population in such a severe manner at precisely the same time?
What exactly is an "ICU Bed" for the purposes of the bed count and what portions that setup are relevant to treating Wuhan virus?Ok, even with some increase since 2015, I doubt we have more than 100K ICU beds in this country. Hopefully, it remains contained because if it doesn't it could be a huge problem. ICU beds are typically full of folks coming off of surgery/other issues. Not like there are 100k empty bed sitting around. A huge flux of folks coming in for this virus could be bad when you look at a system that is already heavily used. Of course, I hope I am wrong.
Those statements are that in the next year the worse case 40 to 60% get it. Not that 40 to 60% get it all at once.Why would they not? Why are you downplaying the potential of this? There have been links and podcasts and scientists that have been provided in this thread that show that up to 40-60% of the population could get it.
Why would you expect that this virus would spread in a slow and steady way? China didn’t build 20 hospitals because they were bored.
33 million infected at peak. that means 5m severe cases and 1m critical. So if 33m infected at the same time you might need 1m ICU beds.Where does this come from?
Sure, it could be a problem if one million people had to be hospitalized all at the same time. Why / how would that occur?
the US should be on the tail end of the usual flu season which ought to limit the spread in time at leastseasonal flu activity often begins as early as October and November and can continue to occur as late as May. Flu activity most commonly peaks in the United States between December and February
Intensive care units, link I posted explains it pretty well on numbers.What exactly is an "ICU Bed" for the purposes of the bed count and what portions that setup are relevant to treating Wuhan virus?
He's going to keep us updated. He leaves again in 24 hours and will try to get video on the way to the airport."In GZ China right now. Landed around 2am. Wouldn't let us open the plane doors until we had masks on. Checked our temps before we could deplane, then hustled us to the hotel. Temps were checked again before entering the hotel. The only people at the hotel are FedEx pilots.
The passenger side of the airport was dead. Lights mostly off. On the roads it was empty except a couple cars and large commercial trucks"
There are many many many reasons why 40 - 60 percent of the US population won't get the virus at exactly the same time. I was curious if you had anything specific you were basing that statement off of. Doesn't appear you do.Why would they not? Why are you downplaying the potential of this? There have been links and podcasts and scientists that have been provided in this thread that show that up to 40-60% of the population could get it.
Why would you expect that this virus would spread in a slow and steady way? China didn’t build 20 hospitals because they were bored.
THAT makes sense. So we are talking about how many beds we have over the next 12 months.Those statements are that in the next year the worse case 40 to 60% get it. Not that 40 to 60% get it all at once.
Not sure. Regular flu peak season (see my earlier post) is Dec-Feb, i.e. now is late season. Sometimes flu season lasts until May but how many can be infected in that timeframe (we don't really know). In the floating Petri dish called Diamond Princess they managed 20% in about a month. Would that be achievable "in the wild"?20 million seems conservative
The scientists that said this didn't mean "simultaneously". It was over some time period ... 2-5 years or so. I'll see what I can dig up.Why would they not? Why are you downplaying the potential of this? There have been links and podcasts and scientists that have been provided in this thread that show that up to 40-60% of the population could get it.
Right. Which elements are a dire necessity for a coronavirus patient? I get the point on "ICU Beds" but it appears a ton of nuance is being bulldozed in the fervor and fever.Intensive care units, link I posted explains it pretty well on numbers.
ETA - if you have ever been in an ICU or visited someone in ICU think you would understand the level of care is different in those units.
Exactly. Even for severe cases is there anything to do other than hydration and cooling ? Once you get pneumonia (or other bacterial infections), different story, but also more treatment options.Plus, "number of ICU beds" is not a finite number -- or necessarily even a relevant number.
A ready-built ICU room has A LOT of equipment not needed to specifically treat a COVID patient. If a facility needs extra "acute COVID care" wards/rooms, you set them up on the fly out of ordinary patient rooms or whatever floor space you have. (@Terminalxylem ?)
I am mostly going with that podcast but my understanding is that critical cases need to be on ventilators with constant monitoring for several weeks. I think my number earlier about 2mm with virus and need for 100k beds is not unrealistic. I don't think we can handle that, which sucks. So I hope it remains contained.Right. Which elements are a dire necessity for a coronavirus patient? I get the point on "ICU Beds" but it appears a ton of nuance is been bulldozed in the fervor and fever.
Preach on.Right. Which elements are a dire necessity for a coronavirus patient? I get the point on "ICU Beds" but it appears a ton of nuance is been bulldozed in the fervor and fever.
There are less of those then beds - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215Preach on.
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The "not enough ICU beds!" thing must be a talking point somewhere -- I'm going to go so far as to say that number of ICU beds doesn't matter a whit.
A broom closet with a comfy bed and a ventilator ... that's your bare-bones COVID treatment room. I exaggerate, but little.
oooooooooooooooooooooooooooffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffI've got some nuts in my underpants y'all can stock up on
This number is closer to correct. 20% ICU I'm not so sure on, but that could be close too.Google is telling me there were around 900K hospital beds in 2017. Can't find accurate 2020 numbers.
Not sure you and @Doug B are talking the same type of ventilator. And I don't know which type is relevant either.There are less of those then beds - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215
The "hydration and cooling" folks, unless quite elderly, aren't going to have hospital stays. They've visit GPs or urgent care centers or similar. They will almost all convalesce at home.Exactly. Even for severe cases is there anything to do other than hydration and cooling ? Once you get pneumonia (or other bacterial infections), different story, but also more treatment options.
What's the name of the podcast you're referring to? Sorry if you've already said. This thread is moving too fast to catch everything.His take on masks made sense to me if you listen to the podcast. It is most helpful to stop the spread to others but not really helpful to protect yourself. I also think the panic shopping thing made sense as well (sort of like you are at the store then buy a couple of extra things).
ETA - I would suggest listening to it as I did on my way to work. If you have a smart phone it is very easy to access a podcast.