Don't be squared. We'll be fine.
Step 1 is definitely getting enough tests for everyone and imo, getting the entire population tested.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Step 1 is definitely getting enough tests for everyone and imo, getting the entire population tested.
waiver wire
Footballguy
I put posted this in a travel facebook group I belong to
I talked to Pedro this week about the future of travel and thought I would get more opinions on here on what you think will happen . As these affects our businesses and our own travel plans.
Ive got 4 trips planned in the next 10 months
June back east
Sept Europe
Nov India
Jan Tanzania
I don't think any of these will happen because of these reasons:
1 No vaccine until mid 2021 at the earliest
2 Many restrictions will be in place
3 still a lot of hotspots around the world so why would borders be open for travel
4 no insurance will cover the risk or will be so expensive there is no point
5 all the airlines will have reduced routes so prices will be very expensive
6 for our business's most people wont be working for at least 2-4 months so wont have extra cash or worst lost their job because the business is closed for good
the virus is not going away
normal life only returns with a vaccine that's available to everyone
the only other way is if there is a mass market daily test or countries allow you to travel if you have the antibodies so cant spread the virus
These are my thoughts at this time reading and listening to the news .
How off am I ??
Am I right , wrong or just crazy ?
its basically the same line of thinking i have for the nfl and other leagues trying to start in the fall , i just dont see it realistically happening unless there is some medical break throughs
Right, that's my point, if the hospitals are still over burdened in a couple months the stay at home isnt working.
the moops
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
Ksquared
Footballguy
We need 70% approximately of the population to get to the herd immunity numbers that might allow some return to a normal life. Just use the rates of people that are getting the virus and that total needs to be approximately 230 millionish. How long before we get to that point. I understand the need to not overwhelm the medical system, but literally this could take so long there is not a country left. If we need to get to 230 million infected and we flatten the curve to only 100,000 infected every day it will take us 2,300 days to get to the 70% number.
We have to start to realize that stay at home for over 6 years is not reasonable.
We have to start to realize that stay at home for over 6 years is not reasonable.
Sure it is. It's exactly the point. It's a simple analysis of worth. If hospitals are still stressed two months from now its not working and it's not worth it.
joffer
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
But it's looking like it's working in EVERY other country. So why do we think we are different? If it's not working here it's because WE aren't doing enough. Because WE are allowing state-by-state response to this, because WE aren't taking it seriously enough. The answer to that isn't "F it" The answer to that is MORE discipline, more testing, real contact tracing, new technology, etc.
I'm not the one saying it wont work and we will have to stay home for months and months.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Ksquared
Footballguy
Waiver Wire - I think you are correct that any type of travel in the next year is not likely to happen for the reasons you mentioned. Also, at some point in the next 6-8 months when there is still very limited demand for traveling, I envision significant business people in travel locations will close permanently. I am becoming more depressed about what the future of this country and world will look like in 2 years.
shader
Footballguy
Non-China Reported Cases
2/7 - 277 reported cases
2/12 - 490 reported cases
2/17 - 893 reported cases - 5 dead
2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead
2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead
2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead
3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead
3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead
3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead
3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead
3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead
3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead
3/28 - 581,528 reported cases - 27,551 dead - USA 123,428 cases - 2,211 dead
3/29 - 640,507 reported cases - 30,666 dead - USA 142,047 cases - 2,484 dead
3/30 - 702,911 reported cases - 34,476 dead - USA 163,479 cases - 3,148 dead
3/31 - 777,151 reported cases - 38,846 dead - USA 188,530 cases - 3,889 dead
4/1 - 852,910 reported cases - 43,863 dead - USA 214,482 cases - 5,093 dead
4/2 - 932,707 reported cases - 49,664 dead - USA 244,320 cases - 5,897 dead
4/3 - 1,016,190 reported cases - 55,818 dead - USA 276,965 cases - 7,391 dead
4/4 - 1,119,804 reported cases - 61,362 dead - USA 311,357 cases - 8,452 dead
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0
First 100k day for new cases. Yay.
2/7 - 277 reported cases
2/12 - 490 reported cases
2/17 - 893 reported cases - 5 dead
2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead
2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead
2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead
3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead
3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead
3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead
3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead
3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead
3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead
3/28 - 581,528 reported cases - 27,551 dead - USA 123,428 cases - 2,211 dead
3/29 - 640,507 reported cases - 30,666 dead - USA 142,047 cases - 2,484 dead
3/30 - 702,911 reported cases - 34,476 dead - USA 163,479 cases - 3,148 dead
3/31 - 777,151 reported cases - 38,846 dead - USA 188,530 cases - 3,889 dead
4/1 - 852,910 reported cases - 43,863 dead - USA 214,482 cases - 5,093 dead
4/2 - 932,707 reported cases - 49,664 dead - USA 244,320 cases - 5,897 dead
4/3 - 1,016,190 reported cases - 55,818 dead - USA 276,965 cases - 7,391 dead
4/4 - 1,119,804 reported cases - 61,362 dead - USA 311,357 cases - 8,452 dead
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0
First 100k day for new cases. Yay.
Ksquared
Footballguy
MM, what is working in every other country? You realize the measures that China and Japan used have been put back on to their population in the last week in many places because they are starting to get breakouts again. This why even with a China style lock down is not going to go away for a long time. The numbers do not work out. The only hope is a quick medical breakthrough.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Kobe Bryant died in January 2020, seems like a lifetime ago.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Immunity.
Either through a vaccine, or we get over the hump of the populace getting it.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Herd immunity is the LAST resort. No one is planning on that as our BEST option. In order, the way to address a pandemic is:
1. Suppression: missed our chance here as neither we nor any of the European countries were prepared to execute this strategy for THIS virus
2. Pro-active Mitigation: missed this opportunity due to [redacted as this is not the PSF]
3. Reactive Mitigation: what we are doing now. And IMO aren't doing nearly as well as our European counterparts due to our state-by-state inconsistency and [redacted as this is not the PSF]
4. Treatment: this will take at least 2-4 more months to develop, distribute, and execute widespread treatment and is why steps 2/3 above are valuable in "buying us time"
5. Vaccine: this will take 12-18 months and is why steps 2, 3, and 4 are so crucial
6. Herd Immunity: IF none of the previous are effective then THIS is the last hope
skol asylum
Footballguy
A bad cold. Go watch some videos of what's going on in the ICUs in NY. A bad cold. Just go away.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
The whole idea behind flattening the curve is to not overwhelm so hospitals so we have fewer deaths. But a flatter curve also means a longer duration. That's it. That's the tradeoff. We hunker down longer so that there are simply fewer deaths.
The analogy of volunteering to go to the front of the Higgins boat only works if you accept that getting shot as you storm the beaches doesn't kill YOU, but kills grandma, kills her friends, the mailman, your childs favorite teacher . . . .
The analogy of volunteering to go to the front of the Higgins boat only works if you accept that getting shot as you storm the beaches doesn't kill YOU, but kills grandma, kills her friends, the mailman, your childs favorite teacher . . . .
Clown Car
Footballguy
In his case he is elderly, 76, and from what I’ve heard is a nursing home resident so I doubt he was going to put it on Facebook. I sincerely hope no one here would threaten anyone. I know people have offered to help his family if needed. But you are probably right about people doing some crazy stuff to others.
skol asylum
Footballguy
They cancelled my online order of shop towels. No inventory. That's annoying. Everyone seems to be on to it. The new TP I guess.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Newsom:
Not anticipating sports here in CA will be back in the next few months, in response to Trump pro sports talk.
Not anticipating sports here in CA will be back in the next few months, in response to Trump pro sports talk.
Last edited by a moderator:
skol asylum
Footballguy
Found this available now at Harbor Freight. Just ordered two. We'll see if they cancel after the fact too.
https://www.harborfreight.com/toolbox-big-grip-bucket-blue-shop-towels-64928.html
https://www.harborfreight.com/toolbox-big-grip-bucket-blue-shop-towels-64928.html
Capella
Footballguy
I explained this to a friend today and he gasped. Had no idea it could come back in the fall. I think actively knowing about this makes it way worse.
Ksquared
Footballguy
What I am saying is this is the formula to require at a minimum 6 months and probably more likely a year of shelter in place with still a small % of the population having been infected. And I keep repeating, the virus is coming back in Japan, SK, and China after lock downs in some or all areas. We have at least two people on this board with a background in epidemiology and have strongly warned the idea of a vaccine should not be counted upon. So we go to lock down for a year and as soon as we try to get normal interactions - societal, economic, etc it will kick up again and we will be back to shelter in place. The country will not survive this type of a solution once the time frame starts to sink in.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
The other side is underestimating the likelihood that we'll have a great depression either way.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
As we can see by 2 people in here, many more will not go for another stay at home which likely would be stricter than the fairly lax rules we have now.
See, "Last Resort!" and "Last Hope!" isnt helping anything. This isnt an extinction event. Its not even a 1% mortality rate.
#5 and #6 will happen and will solve the problem. 1 thru 4 only prolong spreading to help keep the stress off the hospitals.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
I disagree. Though admit I may be wrong. I can't explain it any better than the below article:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Does that help explain why I am optimistic that THIS is necessary and why I think people making this a choice between the economy and the temp lock down are creating a false dichotomy? And note that in the above article the return is not only predicted, it's expected. Heck, the virus' re-emergence is planned for in the TITLE of the article.
adonis
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I’ve seen you post about these a cpl times but I missed what you want them for.
Lil help?
Ksquared
Footballguy
I do not have a good answer about this situation, but this is food for thought for everyone reading this. At what point do we have to throw our hands up and let it run wild. As I showed up thread, if 100,000 are infected everyday it will take over 6 years at that rate to get to 70% of the population to acquire the virus and develop herd immunity. And these numbers are only for the US
Man In The Box
Footballguy
Would probably be even more since people with other life threatening emergencies won’t be able to get the care they need. We’re already not able to care for people who have a heart attack and are not responsive at the scene in some areas.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Again, it's not the evacuation that kills an economy when a hurricane is comes.
Can we please stop with the argument that we can save the economy from this pandemic?
Can we please stop with the argument that we can save the economy from this pandemic?
tri-man 47
Footballguy
If 100,000 are infected every day, I expect we'd overwhelm various parts of our health care system in, what, 3-6 months?
adonis
Footballguy
I'd like your reply because it represents what you think.
I guarantee you a non-heated reply. I may come back with other questions though.
What happens with millions of deaths to our economy?
skol asylum
Footballguy
Apparently they make excellent filters for homemade masks.
https://www.businessinsider.com/homemade-mask-using-hydro-knit-shop-towel-filters-better-2020-4
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Please don't misquote by reading and the writing in exclamation points where they don't exist. I'll assume that was an accident and will accept an apology. Nor did I write nor do I believe this is an exctinction event. Please do not create strawmen to argue against - it's exemplary of weak debate strategy.
As for your second statement, there is absolutely NO guarantee that either will happen. No one knows whether are vaccine is possible. Some epidemiologists are hopeful while others are more pessimistic. Herd immunity would come at substantial economic cost also. Do you really think that sending everyone back to work means that people will start flying again? Travelling for vacation? Going to sports? Movies? Dinner? Do you think everyone is doing this because they are following governmental orders? Several silicon valley companies sent all their people into work-from-home mode BEFORE any state or federal stay-at-home advisories. You think those companies are going to lift their policies in this environment. Do you they want this running through their offices filled with their best-and-brightest?
Lastly, yes we ARE prolonging the spreading...that's the whole GD point! Per my previous post, Hammer now then Dance.
Ksquared
Footballguy
Terminalxlyem has indicated we should not expect a vaccine for Covid 19. There are some things that are hopefully in that direction, but there still is not a vaccine for AIDS and it took 15 years to develop the procedures we have now to deal with it. We do not have a vaccine for the common flu either. I have a strange feeling people may start following all the medical trials going on like the do sports once we realize we have no chance of an semi normal life until that occurs. Hopefully Terminalxlyem, will be able to express his thoughts again, this thread is way too long to dig those responses out.
shader
Footballguy
If we just let this thing run wild, nobody will be going to work or conducting business as usual anyway. Society will voluntarily shut down if we have thousands or tens of thousands dying from this thing everyday (the US already has thousands dying daily). The economy craters in that scenario too, and I think it'd probly crash even worse.
adonis
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
I have not seen this anywhere else. Everything I've read says it just takes time. I'd like to hear more.
adonis
Footballguy
What nonsense. I thought you had some compelling perspective to share but instead you come with NDA ridiculousness.
Ksquared
Footballguy
If I understand the original argument and the now modified one is we will not have a normal life style (and forget the red herrings of travel and other excess income expenditures) again. My point of 100,000 infected per day was to illustrate the current plan will take 6 years to get to the ability to interact if a cure/vaccine is not found. And until it is we need to stay at home or the growth curve will pick back up just like it is in parts of Asia. I don't think we have to worry about the economy, if a vaccine is not found in the near future we have to worry about what type of a country we will end up with.
adonis
Footballguy
Agreed. I"m taking a generally low estimate of the impact of just letting this thing ride in our economy with no social distancing and no other mitigating effects.
