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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

The country will open up by summer, one way or another.

The most likely scenario, IMO, is that the rate of new cases will stabilize (or decline slightly), and the authorities will seize upon that fact as proof that the worst is behind us. And lockdowns will be lifted. And then people will go nuts with their outdoor activities -- largely ignoring social distancing recommendations. And then the rate of new cases will skyrocket again in the fall.
While people are hanging out at home, they really need to be taking math and epidemiology courses. Maybe then they'll understand this is far bigger than any individual. 

I'm blown away by the number of people setting arbitrary limits to how long they'll comply with containment measures. Why must we be so ####### selfish?

 
I do not have a good answer about this situation, but this is food for thought for everyone reading this.  At what point do we have to throw our hands up and let it run wild.  As I showed up thread, if 100,000 are infected everyday it will take over 6 years at that rate to get to 70% of the population to acquire the virus and develop herd immunity.  And these numbers are only for the US
You're underestimating exponential growth, asymptomatic/mildy symptomatic cases and current testing limitations.

Every year, influenza infects tens of millions of Americans in a few months. It's less contagious and vaccine preventable, unlike SARS-CoV-2. 

 
Terminalxlyem has indicated we should not expect a vaccine  for Covid 19.  There are some things that are hopefully in that direction, but there still is not a vaccine for AIDS and it took 15 years to develop the procedures we have now to deal with it.  We do not have a vaccine for the common flu either.  I have a strange feeling people may start following all the medical trials going on like the do sports once we realize we have no chance of an semi normal life until that occurs.  Hopefully Terminalxlyem, will be able to express his thoughts again, this thread is way too long to dig those responses out.
I don't think a vaccine will be available soon. At best, many months to a year + away. Nor do I think we're going to develop an effective treatment soon. I base these statements on our track record for vaccine development and viral therapeutics, though I hope I am wrong. Regardless, we shouldn't expect those to bail us out. Containment measures won't be kind to the economy, but the alternative will be worse IMO.

And FTR, we have several different flu vaccines. I think you meant the common cold?

 
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So Trump is setting this all up to be able to blame the scientists for the ####ty economy.

He is clearly reluctant to shut anything down in a meaningful way.  And he'll likely come out of this blaming Fauci and other scientists who admonished him to shut the economy down.

Instead of accepting responsibility, inevitably he'll point fingers of blame.
I know it's political 😱, but I agree this is his likely strategy.

 
While people are hanging out at home, they really need to be taking math and epidemiology courses. Maybe then they'll understand this is far bigger than any individual. 

I'm blown away by the number of people setting arbitrary limits to how long they'll comply with containment measures. Why must we be so ####### selfish?
You are coming across very bad here. Please settle down.

(I could describe it much better but don't want the ban).

 
I can appreciate this reply.  I also wonder if I could follow through on that guarantee.

I think I could though.  I"m honestly curious as to the views of those who oppose the shutdown.  I get it.  It's bad.  But what's the alternative, and how is it not worse?  

Was reading some tweets from Scott Adams today, where one was (likely joking) saying "#### your grandma" in response to the economy needing to be shut down in order to protect her.  (He was summarizing someone elses comment, but it was hard to tell his views on it)

Really just want to hear some alternative views.
People have already alluded to the human costs of a tanking economy. Some movie quote regarding deaths per unit increase in unemployment.

So I assume they believe the death and suffering resulting from a bad economy exceeds the death and suffering from unmitigated COVID-19. And I suspect they are valuing the elderly and debilitated hardest hit by COVID-19 less than the younger people who will be impacted by economic collapse. In terms of quality-adjusted life years, they may be right. 

But I think they're underestimating the impact of overwhelming our healthcare system, both economically and total lives lost - due to COVID-19 and otherwise.

I'd love to see a model which accounts for all those variables though. 

 
What are the quarantine requirements for someone who's tested positive?  A friend was tested on 3/24 and the result on 3/30 was +ve.  She thinks there was an 8-day quarantine which seems way too low to me.  I think a 14-day quarantine after no symptoms is correct but I'm not sure.  Anyone know?  I don't want her infecting others.
Per CDC:

People with COVID-19 who have stayed home (home isolated) can stop home isolation under the following conditions:

If you will not have a test to determine if you are still contagious, you can leave home after these three things have happened:

You have had no fever for at least 72 hours (that is three full days of no fever without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
AND

other symptoms have improved (for example, when your cough or shortness of breath have improved)
AND

at least 7 days have passed since your symptoms first appeared

If you will be tested to determine if you are still contagious, you can leave home after these three things have happened:

You no longer have a fever (without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
AND

other symptoms have improved (for example, when your cough or shortness of breath have improved)
AND

you received two negative tests in a row, 24 hours apart. Your doctor will follow CDC guidelines.

In all cases, follow the guidance of your healthcare provider and local health department. The decision to stop home isolation should be made in consultation with your healthcare provider and state and local health departments. Local decisions depend on local circumstances.

 
My ####### sister is insisting that dogs can't carry it.  She's got a lapdog that she just brought to our 88 year old Mom (who has high BP).  I have tried like hell to keep her safe for a month now.  Sister, who lives a block away and rarely visited prior to the pandemic, waltzes up just now and lets the dog go nuts.  I'm beyond livid.  At both of them, actually.

I haven't read enough of this thread -- it gets too depressing at times, unfortunately -- to know the consensus on pets carrying this ####.  Does anyone have some links on that?  I just feel it's too risky, period.  Certainly not worth the 2 minutes of petting for ####'s sake.

While I'm at it.  Thanks for the massive contributions all of you make in here.  Little chance I would've been out in front of this thing without you.  Stay safe.
No conclusive evidence pets carry it, though some suspicion for cats. WHO let the dogs out.

 
I don't understand why people are apparently choosing the economy over people's lives. Yes, the economy is going to suffer in a big way because of this, it might even be worse than the Great Depression for a while, but no money in the world is worth exchanging human lives for. We'll all have to make changes, whether we like it or not, but this is not a time to think about jumpstarting the economy. That can wait.
There will be civil unrest like you have never seen before if we are locked down for 3+ months. Many deaths, every store ransacked. If we are gonna wait until the virus is completely gone (cure, vaccine), there will be no economy to jump start. It will be anarchy.

 
There will be civil unrest like you have never seen before if we are locked down for 3+ months. Many deaths, every store ransacked. If we are gonna wait until the virus is completely gone (cure, vaccine), there will be no economy to jump start. It will be anarchy.
Interesting take. Highly highly doubt it. People can be dumb and bad, but they’re still smarter and better than this. 

 
There will be civil unrest like you have never seen before if we are locked down for 3+ months. Many deaths, every store ransacked. If we are gonna wait until the virus is completely gone (cure, vaccine), there will be no economy to jump start. It will be anarchy.
Interesting take. Highly highly doubt it. People can be dumb and bad, but they’re still smarter and better than this. 
I can see a middle ground between these two views with crime ramping up. I have taken extra precautions. The homeless in my town are getting more aggressive with their panhandling. Their revenue stream has majorly changed. 

 
Interesting take. Highly highly doubt it. People can be dumb and bad, but they’re still smarter and better than this. 
I hope so, but the lines I saw at the Field & Stream gun counter a couple of weeks back tell me that many are afraid of their neighbors- or projecting that person inside of themselves on to others.

 
Definitely don't want to turn the FFA into the PSF cesspool, but to some degree Trump's comments on the coronvavirus and how seriously he's taking it seems relevant to this thread, no?  If he's considering, or pushing back against experts to open up church services for Easter, that seems relevant to Covid-19.  I should keep my editorialization to a minimum though, but simply saying this seems like a bad idea would be sufficient - no?
Correct.

 
Interesting take. Highly highly doubt it. People can be dumb and bad, but they’re still smarter and better than this. 
No. 
 

most of you don’t underestimate the complete economic and civil collapse that 3 months of Quarantine would cause Most of us are relatively affluent and relatively far removed from the short term consequences of missing a few paychecks.

I’m in a similar boat, I could lose both of my businesses and a bunch of savings and probably still come out of this thing OK with some cash savings, still owning my house and likely able to find a job. But I know I’m in the top 5% in terms of amount of cash on hand and connections/abilities to restart my career or find a new one.

This message board is more affluent, better educated and older than the average US adult by a significant margin. I employ people out of college in their 20s and I also have one manager who is in her late 30s who has a special needs daughter and is a single mother.  She’s terrified of not working and has enough savings for maybe one month of expenses without having to go begging to her ex-husband (who’s an ###) for money.

then there’s at the emotional toll from the business owner perspective. My wife and I struggle with this. We’ve put several hundred thousand dollars and 2 to 3 years of our time into building what were, up until two weeks ago, successful businesses that employed people and generated profit for our families.  These businesses were the vehicles through which we planned to save for college for our daughters and also fund longer term family priorities. 
 

When you own a business it’s much more personal than just a job. It’s something you’re building and you take pride in and there’s a lot more responsibility for and just simply closing or walking away from that takes a huge mental toll.  
 

The government can’t just keep printing money and handing it out. The long-term economic ramifications of that are significant and I don’t think anybody is considering that right now. Inflation would skyrocket once economy did get kick started because there be a flood of money into the system. The way the economy works is that every dollar is traded over and over and over again and there’s a multiplier effect for every dollar but when you’re just handing the public money and nobody can go out and spend it on anything other than the essentials those dollars are not circulating. We are almost entirely a consumer demand driven economy  

 
From the mayor of Tybee Island, GA in response to the GA governor mandating that all public beaches remain open during their shelter in place period. To me this is criminal negligence and the governor should pay for this not only with his political career but jail time. But that’s me and probably won’t happen. Yet another example of why this thing will drag out longer than it needs to and @mr roboto post above will be closer to reality than it needs to be. 

I’ve said from the beginning that this battle will be won at the town/city/state level by quick thinking individuals that are prepared to make hard decisions. This is an example of that internal battle, kinda like fighting within your group when you are all trying to reach the same objective. 

https://twitter.com/jarbomb/status/1246552787573510146?s=21

 
No. 
 

most of you don’t underestimate the complete economic and civil collapse that 3 months of Quarantine would cause Most of us are relatively affluent and relatively far removed from the short term consequences of missing a few paychecks.

I’m in a similar boat, I could lose both of my businesses and a bunch of savings and probably still come out of this thing OK with some cash savings, still owning my house and likely able to find a job. But I know I’m in the top 5% in terms of amount of cash on hand and connections/abilities to restart my career or find a new one.

This message board is more affluent, better educated and older than the average US adult by a significant margin. I employ people out of college in their 20s and I also have one manager who is in her late 30s who has a special needs daughter and is a single mother.  She’s terrified of not working and has enough savings for maybe one month of expenses without having to go begging to her ex-husband (who’s an ###) for money.

then there’s at the emotional toll from the business owner perspective. My wife and I struggle with this. We’ve put several hundred thousand dollars and 2 to 3 years of our time into building what were, up until two weeks ago, successful businesses that employed people and generated profit for our families.  These businesses were the vehicles through which we planned to save for college for our daughters and also fund longer term family priorities. 
 

When you own a business it’s much more personal than just a job. It’s something you’re building and you take pride in and there’s a lot more responsibility for and just simply closing or walking away from that takes a huge mental toll.  
 

The government can’t just keep printing money and handing it out. The long-term economic ramifications of that are significant and I don’t think anybody is considering that right now. Inflation would skyrocket once economy did get kick started because there be a flood of money into the system. The way the economy works is that every dollar is traded over and over and over again and there’s a multiplier effect for every dollar but when you’re just handing the public money and nobody can go out and spend it on anything other than the essentials those dollars are not circulating. We are almost entirely a consumer demand driven economy  
I’m not willing to say never. If I’ve learned anything from this situation is that this is unpredictable, and you just never know what could happen. That said, the civil unrest/breakdown of society thing still seems highly unlikely to me. 

 
Stuff is pretty serious here in Long Island. Never imagined anything like this in real life. My first time waiting outside the supermarket. The line wraps around the back of the building and through the parking lot. Everyone wearing masks and spaced 10ft+ apart. I guess they’re only allowing so many people into the store at a time. 
 

It’s eery. It’s also so quiet out. A car every now and then, but mostly listening to birds, more different types of birds, and louder birds, than I’ve ever remembered hearing.  All just very weird. 

 
Definitely don't want to turn the FFA into the PSF cesspool, but to some degree Trump's comments on the coronvavirus and how seriously he's taking it seems relevant to this thread, no?  If he's considering, or pushing back against experts to open up church services for Easter, that seems relevant to Covid-19.  I should keep my editorialization to a minimum though, but simply saying this seems like a bad idea would be sufficient - no?
Correct.
Oof.

Really thought you'd come down on the "not this thread" side. 

If you're going to allow comments critical of Trump, be prepared for comments in his defense.

If you're going to allow partial quotes of Trump, be prepared for people providing the full quote.

You have a hair trigger on time outs in the PF, and give warning after warning after warning after warning here. And then do this?

 
probably immeasurable, but I wonder how many years of damage has been undone to the environment already due to this virus... and even moreso in 3mos time.

fascinating, and at leats one positive of all this... so long as we're here to enjoy it

 
While people are hanging out at home, they really need to be taking math and epidemiology courses. Maybe then they'll understand this is far bigger than any individual. 

I'm blown away by the number of people setting arbitrary limits to how long they'll comply with containment measures. Why must we be so ####### selfish?
You are coming across very bad here. Please settle down.

(I could describe it much better but don't want the ban).
no hes not take that to the bank brohans 

 
From the mayor of Tybee Island, GA in response to the GA governor mandating that all public beaches remain open during their shelter in place period. To me this is criminal negligence and the governor should pay for this not only with his political career but jail time. But that’s me and probably won’t happen. Yet another example of why this thing will drag out longer than it needs to and @mr roboto post above will be closer to reality than it needs to be. 

I’ve said from the beginning that this battle will be won at the town/city/state level by quick thinking individuals that are prepared to make hard decisions. This is an example of that internal battle, kinda like fighting within your group when you are all trying to reach the same objective. 

https://twitter.com/jarbomb/status/1246552787573510146?s=21
This is just sheer stupidity IMO. Forcing beaches/businesses/whatever to stay open is the height of arrogance and foolishness. 

 
Oof.

Really thought you'd come down on the "not this thread" side. 

If you're going to allow comments critical of Trump, be prepared for comments in his defense.

If you're going to allow partial quotes of Trump, be prepared for people providing the full quote.

You have a hair trigger on time outs in the PF, and give warning after warning after warning after warning here. And then do this?
@Joe BryantSeriously.  The political commentary has made this thread unreadable the past 24 hours.

 
No he’s not, he’s one of the most reasoned and valuable posters here. 
Gotta disagree.  He's not helping with the way he's presenting his views.

He's coming across as elitist and quite "d word ends with y....."

 
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Oof.

Really thought you'd come down on the "not this thread" side. 

If you're going to allow comments critical of Trump, be prepared for comments in his defense.

If you're going to allow partial quotes of Trump, be prepared for people providing the full quote.

You have a hair trigger on time outs in the PF, and give warning after warning after warning after warning here. And then do this?
Fbguys is a great message board.  One of the best I’ve ever seen on the internet.  That’s 100% down to moderation, imo.

The above statement was perfect from the moderator. We should be able to rationally discuss govt decisions that affect the coronavirus, without getting political. 
 

But it’s all in how we say it.

OK criticism might be:

”I’m not a big fan of Trump telling us the CDC recommendations are to wear a mask and then saying he’s not going to wear one”.

That should be allowed here.

Not ok criticism would be referring to non corona virus related issues in his presidency, discussing democrats/republicans (political) issues, and of course using over-the-top adjectives to describe how you feel about him as a person or president.
 

OK praise might be “I thought that was an excellent press conference”. “I’m glad to see the president letting the country know that dark weeks are ahead”

Not ok praise might be “We should all be thankful that we have president trump, he’s leading us through these difficult days beautifully, and has handled this virus great!”

This shouldn’t be hard

 
It’s eery. It’s also so quiet out. A car every now and then, but mostly listening to birds, more different types of birds, and louder birds, than I’ve ever remembered hearing.  All just very weird. 
Yesterday I walked down an empty Broadway in Soho at lunchtime. Think I heard a clock ticking.

 
There will be civil unrest like you have never seen before if we are locked down for 3+ months. Many deaths, every store ransacked. If we are gonna wait until the virus is completely gone (cure, vaccine), there will be no economy to jump start. It will be anarchy.
That's pretty unlikely. I don't think there were those type of riots during the Great Depression, and that was without the specter of a pandemic hanging overhead.

 
I hope so, but the lines I saw at the Field & Stream gun counter a couple of weeks back tell me that many are afraid of their neighbors- or projecting that person inside of themselves on to others.
 I have a friend who works at Bass Pro.  The only reason they are staying open is that they are crushing gun and ammo sales.  He laughs and rolls his eyes about it.  People are coming in to purchase handguns that have no idea you need a permit. 

 
Wow, you guys are really stroking him.  No worries, I'll ignore him.

Peace.
i gotta say taking shots at a guy on the front line who despite everything else he is surely going through right now still spends time here trying to truthfully disseminate information is a pretty damned bad look brohan if i were you id just say sorry and hope people forget take that to the bank 

 
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Chicago Trib had a chart this morning that showed number of new cases per day worldwide.  Essentially, every 3-5 days the number of new cases has jumped up about 10,000.  A couple of weeks ago, we were seeing about 40K a day.  Yesterday was just under 80K (fifth day above 70K/day).  Is 80K+ the new plateau for the next few days?  Will we keep reaching new thresholds above that? Or are we far enough along to have 80K as a peak?  As always, given how truly dynamic this situation is, the new week will be telling.  

 
Wow, you guys are really stroking him.  No worries, I'll ignore him.

Peace.
You do know that you can disagree with him without name calling or insulting.

You are coming across very bad here. Please settle down.

(I could describe it much better but don't want the ban).
We aren't supposed to attack the poster in these forums.  Why not point out specifically what you disagree with in his post if that's your opinion and share some links if you have facts that refute him.  Telling someone they are coming across very bad isn't going to promote discussion.  Ditto with telling them to settle down.

Just do a reset and tell us your opinion.  I'm interested in hearing it.

 
and hey terminalxyz i think i speak for most of here when i say thank you for everything you are doing we all hope you are staying safe and we appreciate it a great deal that you take the time to give us please keep on posting and dont let one laroosh push you away

 
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Per CDC:

People with COVID-19 who have stayed home (home isolated) can stop home isolation under the following conditions:

If you will not have a test to determine if you are still contagious, you can leave home after these three things have happened:

You have had no fever for at least 72 hours (that is three full days of no fever without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
AND

other symptoms have improved (for example, when your cough or shortness of breath have improved)
AND

at least 7 days have passed since your symptoms first appeared

If you will be tested to determine if you are still contagious, you can leave home after these three things have happened:

You no longer have a fever (without the use medicine that reduces fevers)
AND

other symptoms have improved (for example, when your cough or shortness of breath have improved)
AND

you received two negative tests in a row, 24 hours apart. Your doctor will follow CDC guidelines.

In all cases, follow the guidance of your healthcare provider and local health department. The decision to stop home isolation should be made in consultation with your healthcare provider and state and local health departments. Local decisions depend on local circumstances.
I have an individual that works for me who went out on quarantine on 3/19. His wife was tested on 3/20. Her positive test was returned on 3/28. He slept every night next to her. Never developed a cough or a fever. Was never tested. Was back to work after fourteen days on 4/2. Cleared by County Dept of Health. Guys he works with were...displeased.

 
Mrs Moleculo has begrudgingly accepted her basement quarantine.  Cough is still there, probably getting worse.  No fever, slightly tired but no other signs of illness.  This is especially tough for her as she is the extrovert of us - I haven't left the house in several days and am totally fine, whereas being confined is really killing her.  For shopping: our oldest is 23 years old - he will be taking care of that.  Heck, if I were to go down, we will enlist him to take care of the kids until we are upright again.  

Regarding the mask discussion: the Mrs. made 5 masks yesterday and is making more today.  Obviously, before wearing them we will do what we can to sterilize them - spray lysol or something.  There have been lots of how-to videos floating aorund on social media, she was able to put some together from left over fabrics.

Downside is my home office was in the basement.  Now, I guess I'm working from the dining room table.    Also, my brewery is in the basement .  :kicksrock:   1st world problems, I know.
The Mrs is out of home quarantine.  She never did get a fever and the cough has gotten better, but not totally gone.  Talked to her doctor and while we can't completely rule out COVID, there really are no other symptoms so its more likely to be a cold or allergies.

Home quarantine has been tough - tough having my wife and the mother of my kids stuck in the basement when she feels completely fine.  Still, i can't help from giving her the look whenever she coughs.

We will continue quarantining the household thru next week, which really isn't different than regular life, i guess.

 
I don't understand why grocery stores didn't go to online ordering.  For those without internet can call the store.     Grocery store employees pick out the items and deliver it curbside.    I have been doing grocery delivery for a very long time before the pandemic.  Win/Win

 
and hey terminalxyz i think i speak for most of here when i say thank you for everything you are doing we all hope you are staying safe and we appreciate it a great deal that you take the time to give us 
And yet you didn't even give him any banking recommendations. No Bromigo. Not even a brohan?

 

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