mr roboto
Footballguy
Is the “oddly attractive” thread still alive? I think this would be a perfect submission.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
OrtonToOlsen
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
Way to be the exception
@StuartBanford: .@LukeBryanOnline performing the song we all need right now #MostPeopleAreGood. #ACMOurCountry #countrymusic https://twitter.com/StuartBanford/status/1246971123587260417/video/1
OrtonToOlsen
Footballguy
OrtonToOlsen
Footballguy
Truck, tractor, fishin, jeans, cold beer, whiskey, horse, grandma, dirt road, boots :guitarbreak:
Politician Spock
Footballguy
OrtonToOlsen
Footballguy
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
OrtonToOlsen
Footballguy
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Big League Chew
Footballguy
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
8% for the US today which was the lowest since Feb. 29. Doubling rate went from 5.96 to 8.87 days which was a step change improvement and broke out of a second order fit that had been pretty resilient for over two weeks. Still, it could be a statistical fluctuation. The death rate was also notably down but it should significantly lag the cases.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
If you've been following this, do you have any insight on Sunday reporting possibly not being as accurate?
shader
Footballguy
Non-China Reported Cases
2/7 - 277 reported cases
2/12 - 490 reported cases
2/17 - 893 reported cases - 5 dead
2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead
2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead
2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead
3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead
3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead
3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead
3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead
3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead
3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead
4/2 - 932,707 reported cases - 49,664 dead - USA 244,320 cases - 5,897 dead
4/3 - 1,016,190 reported cases - 55,818 dead - USA 276,965 cases - 7,391 dead
4/4 - 1,119,804 reported cases - 61,362 dead - USA 311,357 cases - 8,452 dead
4/5 - 1,191,538 reported cases - 66,105 dead - USA 336,673 cases - 9,616 dead
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0
2/7 - 277 reported cases
2/12 - 490 reported cases
2/17 - 893 reported cases - 5 dead
2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead
2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead
2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead
3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead
3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead
3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead
3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead
3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead
3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead
4/2 - 932,707 reported cases - 49,664 dead - USA 244,320 cases - 5,897 dead
4/3 - 1,016,190 reported cases - 55,818 dead - USA 276,965 cases - 7,391 dead
4/4 - 1,119,804 reported cases - 61,362 dead - USA 311,357 cases - 8,452 dead
4/5 - 1,191,538 reported cases - 66,105 dead - USA 336,673 cases - 9,616 dead
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0
Capella
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Also, is anyone tracking new tests? I the number of tests back fell off then that would explain the drop.
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Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
It could be real but my concern is that the death rate also mimicked the new case behavior in its outlier-ness. They shouldn’t be well correlated on the same day.
shader
Footballguy
Worldwide, last Sunday total cases around the world were the lowest they had been in four days. Deaths were also down. Both went back up the next day.
The USA only reported like 273 deaths last Sunday. Not sure why. Then the next day almost 700 were reported.
Feel free to look at the google link provided above and draw your own conclusions on the data.
shader
Footballguy
Because they aren't a meaningless stat? If you followed the drop in cases in Italy, you wouldn't have been surprised 1-2 weeks later when ICU cases and deaths started dropping.
It's an extremely relevant stat and it gives the earliest indications that things in a country are improving or devolving.
Otis
Footballguy
OrtonToOlsen
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
This makes me think something is going on with Sunday reporting. Cases and deaths shouldn’t be moving in concert and there should be smoothness in the trends, especially now that the numbers are relatively large.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Thanks for doing this. Any chance you can add daily number of tests? That might help weed out bad data points.
moleculo
Footballguy
Iirc, same happened last week. And the week before. I don't have the daya in front of me but if it wasn't a drop, it was a number significantly below what i had expected.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
That said, things are improving albeit slowly.
shader
Footballguy
I'm not reading an article that says that case counts are meaningless, when I know they aren't.
Case counts aren't perfect, the method has flaws, some countries are better than others, in some countries they ARE meaningless.....but they do have value, thus they aren't meaningless.
Take them with a grain of salt if you must, but let's not float the absurd idea out there that there's no value in reporting case counts.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Into the red zone is on msnbc now. Goes inside Italy.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
With varying degrees of lag in different places it might be hard to draw conclusions.
shader
Footballguy
Definitely the exponential trend has been stopped. That's clear in the data. Once you see new cases start slowing down, ICU visits and deaths will soon follow. That's great news for medical professionals as they hopefully see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Jayrod
Footballguy
As an example of how inaccurate our worldwide numbers are from other countries:
Ecuador on Worldometers.info - 3,646 cases - 180 dead
Then I read this post on Facebook from a missionary friend who lives and works in Ecuador (has for most of his life).
Everyone has a motive to under-report and the US has done the same thing at times. The goal is to limit fear and panic and keep the population acting as if everything is normal. That or they simply don't have the means to test and instill stay at home orders so they are left to the mercy of our natural means of fighting off the virus as a species.
Almost all of Africa is being hit and is likely in the same boat as countries like Ecuador. Our number of reported cases in the US is likely much too low, but that pales in comparison to the massively underrepresented numbers worldwide.
Ecuador on Worldometers.info - 3,646 cases - 180 dead
Then I read this post on Facebook from a missionary friend who lives and works in Ecuador (has for most of his life).
The numbers we are hearing out of the third world countries are simply not even close to accurate. This thing is spreading like wildfire. And I don't trust anything the communist nations and Russia have to say. Outside of nations like Germany, France, UK and Canada, I don't buy their reported stats.
Everyone has a motive to under-report and the US has done the same thing at times. The goal is to limit fear and panic and keep the population acting as if everything is normal. That or they simply don't have the means to test and instill stay at home orders so they are left to the mercy of our natural means of fighting off the virus as a species.
Almost all of Africa is being hit and is likely in the same boat as countries like Ecuador. Our number of reported cases in the US is likely much too low, but that pales in comparison to the massively underrepresented numbers worldwide.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
There does seem to be a Sunday effect, unfortunately. From the NY stats, one thing that was promising against that trend was that the discharged hospitalizations were up. If all stats were depressed due to lack of reporting, then that stat should also have been underreported.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Cook county medical examiner site is retroactively adding covid test results dome postmortem.
Its why the listings end up with random out of order death dates. If you scroll right you see that all the out of order ones have covid listed as either a secondary or primary.
I know somebody in here had posted a random twitter account with a theory that deaths were being underreported because pneumonia had higher than normal reports.
Its why the listings end up with random out of order death dates. If you scroll right you see that all the out of order ones have covid listed as either a secondary or primary.
I know somebody in here had posted a random twitter account with a theory that deaths were being underreported because pneumonia had higher than normal reports.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Cases are directly related to the number of tests administered. We aren't testing a significant portion of the population. The actual number of cases is significantly greater than what is reported.
Testing is sporadic at best in the United States.
Deaths are also being under reported but that number is significantly more useful.
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shader
Footballguy
Correct, there are many countries where the info could be extremely inaccurate. I don't know if I think there is a "motive to under-report" cases though.
Jayrod
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
irrelevant stat
What percentage of our population have we tested...now compare that to South Korea.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
The USA stunk at testing 3 weeks ago. But testing has ramped up significantly and kudos should be given to somebody for this.
The USA has performed twice as many tests as any other country. 1.7 million tests have been done.
I don't think "sporadic at best" is an accurate description of what's happening anymore.
TripItUp
Footballguy
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
We have tested 0.5%, Korea which had a 3-4 week head start has tested 0.9%. I suspected we'll lead the world in testing.
