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Very true. These things often end up being multi-factorial, and therefore difficult to isolate any one factor.
by most folks, I'm talking about something like 85% or so who are either completely asymptomatic or who's symptoms aren't severe enough to warrant a test.
It's been hitting me in a similar way, really. Our lives will never truly be the same. Yes, stuff will reopen, and we can get back to something resembling normal, but it'll still be slightly different.
If I had to guess, and it's only a guess, the numbers are undercounted due to those dying at home and the fact that I don't believe there is a giant conspiracy of healthcare workers to count a non-Covid death as a likely (but untested) Covid death. My guess is that if you show up at the hospital with a cough, fever and difficulty breathing and then pass that the HC professional who has seen many similar cases is generally rightly attributing the COD to Covid. Conversely, if you die at home and then someone collects your body that the COD is likely listed as "unknown" regardless of what symptoms might be described by relatives.
Well, then you're doubtlessly correct -- the people you describe do tend to successfully fight off COVID. My assumption is that you meant "85% or so among (known or unknown) COVID carriers ... "
Yeah, that was me. I suggested yesterday that it'd be impossible to predict today's numbers given the craziness of the past 6 days. Have no idea what is going on there.
Just keep focused on the horizon. We're getting thrown around by waves of uncertainty, and everyone's a little green around the gills, but the horizon stays steady.
It's probably researchers that are stuck at home with their kids and can't get #### done. So they made up a topic to maybe get them out of there
This seems like the most obvious conclusion, rather than some conspiracy of under-reporting. It's backed up by stuff like this which seems to indicate (as best it can) that the rate of flu-like illnesses is much lower than expected since efforts like social distancing went into effect.
Explain please. Because where you see negative, I see positive case counts:
It's also the end of flu season. Numbers were already way down before all this started as is the case every year.
Of course. I just mean flu numbers are presumably plummeting much faster than they ordinarily would at this time of year due to social distancing.
I meant deaths, and yes of course we knew this would happen. It's still sad to see it unfold this way.
Here's an article in todays paper: SC likely has more than 15,000 cases of coronavirus, health officials estimate. the reported number for SC is 2.2k. If there are actually ~7x more people infected than the numbers actually state, the total CFR is much lower - less than 0.5%. And if that's the case, it also means we could hit herd immunity 7x faster. now, if it's that contageous and a small people are at risk of very serious outcomes, there is still a very real risk of overloading the hospitals so we need to keep on doing what we do.
Yeah I was thinking about that as well. Probably the funniest bit in one of the funniest movies ever.
We can't calculate the CFR based on cases that might exist when we're in the middle of the crisis and people haven't recovered or died yet. If there are 15k active cases in South Carolina, than that means a lot of deaths are coming in the future. Deaths lag behind everything else. You may recall there was a time when people were saying that the sub 1% CFR in South Korea and Germany was proof that the CFR was lower than 1%. Then the deaths caught up, and both are in the 2% range.
Makes sense because I think most tabulations are really a total of all the numbers from the day before. So Sunday and Monday being lighter days and Tuesday being the day where you catch up from the weekend.
Yeah I completely understand, it is a great thing that those thoughts of the future become secondary though when your family's health is a stake. I wish more people took it as seriously as you!
Someone might nip you on this -- both of those countries are still a little below 2% even now. But they're gaining.
This is indeed well worth considering, but presumably those patients were tested for flu and found negative.
If the sportsbooks in town were open and taking bets on this sort of thing, I'd have zero hesitation betting on that estimate being way, WAY too low.
I just saw a propaganda article trying to include cannabis with the effects of smoking tobacco, but this is the only thing I’ve seen.
My company is having difficulty classifying our COVID patients within our Electronic Health Records (EHR). If you thought wrangling 50 of something into some sort of order (states) was less than ideal, imagine that with 190 things (our hospitals). We have labs being sent off as "miscellaneous" instead of being specifically categorized as COVID. Some hospitals are reporting an uptick in flu, which is its own awful kettle of fish. Our staff is fighting so hard, but it's easy to see where things fall through in regards to 100% accurate reporting.
Death numbers are horrible but think we need to expect that for a while. My hope is we see stay under 30K new cases as that would show some flattening. I am still someone who puts some value in case numbers and since deaths are a trailing number I think today is not all bad news today.
While it's not likely, some flu deaths could be inadvertently logged as Covid-19 cases (since the CDC doesn't need them to test to make a judgement).
I know we are flying in the fog with limited instruments. Still, I find it almost impossible to believe that any nations death stats are artificially high. Dollars to donuts that all of them are lower than the real number of deaths caused by Covid-19.
Case numbers are valuable when considering short-term implications. This is because testing is still somewhat limited; really only administered to those more likely to need hospitalization if they are positive and their symptoms turn for the worse.
Sorry to hear this. My wife and I are both teachers, so we know our jobs aren't in jeopardy, so it's hard to fathom completely the affect this is having on so many people, even when hearing the soaring unemployment numbers. Any chance she can get some at-home hand modeling gigs?
Yes, there's already been a lot about that being done both elsewhere and here. It certainly seems to help from everything I've seen. Thank you for sharing it, though.
