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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)

So my nephew in OH has been down with what he thinks is this since Thursday of last week, fever, aches, trouble breathing, cough. Had a teleconference with his doc today. His fever broke yesterday so doc said to stay home and continue to quarantine, fluids, etc. If things get worse to call back but the doc said he should be feeling better over the next week.

Then the doc said he hasn't been able to get anybody tested that wasn't over 60.

Is that because we are still having issues with the testing or because we have some protocol that excludes people from getting a test?
Doctor Amy Acton mentions every day how hamstrung Ohio currently is in regards to being able to do testing.

She specifically mentions that the reagent needed for testing is in short supply across the entire country.

 
Assuming patient zero was January 15th and a doubling every three days say thru March 9th we would be at 262,144 cases at that point. Lets say social distancing started in and got us to every four days thru March 21st. We would be at 2,097,152 cases then. Lets say we improved to every six days at that point. On April 8th we would be at 16,777,216 cases, or just over 5% of the population.

All arbitrary numbers. Just trying to look at the math.

 
I feel like I would need to understand what both of your "end game" scenarios are for this to understand how you guys feel this way.  

Like 50% of people over 75 that get this end up in the hospital. We cant call them high risk? 

Under 45 even with keeping the underlying conditions data sets in there I think is less than 10%. 
Risk is relative -- it's more "higher risk" and "lower risk" than "high/low risk". Just because one group gets hit hard in great numbers doesn't mean that those getting hit hard in lesser numbers in another group are individually unimportant.

Put another way: Maybe we're not willing to give up on that "less than 10%" from the under-45 set. And maybe the aggregate number of hospitalizations in the under-45 set is still too many to withstand for some healthcare systems in some areas.

EDIT:

A point that I had intended, but neglected, to make: "Low risk", all too often, gets conflated with "no risk" and thus drives decisions straight into the ditch.

 
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@shader , very small country (population ~360,000) ... but Iceland has taken a crack at sampling their population for coronavirus infection.

Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms (CNN, 4/3/2020)

The island nation has tested roughly 1 in 20 Icelanders as of last Friday.
Yeah, but if you read the story, you get a bit of a different view than the headline.

"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said"

I think that's a significant point and one I made a few days ago when this was linked.  The assumption I've always been under, because this is the assumption that the WHO made, is that most people that contract Covid-19 eventually end up showing some symptoms, whether mild or otherwise.  I haven't really seen any data that shows whether this is the case or not.  Even the little town of Vo had one study early on, but then they never followed up to see who all ended up showing some symptoms.

For you and I, this is probably no big deal as we've been following this a long time.  But there are still some that think that a giant number of "asymptomatic cases" (defined by them as people who have covid-19 and never show any symptoms) might be out there and that really this virus isn't a big deal.

It's important to be accurate because if the "just a flu bro" thinking comes back, people may stop quarantining.  That's the only reason I fight this everytime I see it come up.  It's vitally important that people know that this is a very dangerous virus that kills 1-5% (possibly more) of people and that if governments let it run rampant, we'd literally see millions of deaths across the world and all hospitals would basically fall apart.  You know that, I know that, but I'm convinced there are still a lot of people who don't believe that. 

 
Today has been a rough mental day for me.  I've been a positive voice with the family (thanks to many things shared in this thread) but I don't know if it is due to my sister being in quarantine due to being exposed as a healthcare worker last week, personally knowing a few people fighting through the virus right now (one in ICU) or that for the first time I can remember, as a family we aren't getting all together on Easter... Either way, I've been struggling keeping my head up today.  My boss asked me why I was being extra snarky on a conference call we had today.  

My wife and I are still working, healthy, bills are all current... No good reason to be down today. I honestly can't give a good reason for my glum mood today over yesterday or any other recent day.  Anyone else fighting "getting in their feelings" over this?

 
I saw a story a few days ago and a guy had $1 million in blueberries going to be ready in a couple weeks.  His workers were stuck in Ecuador. 
wildness... 

right now it's pruning and prepping season here in niagara... all the vines, apple, peach, cherry trees etc... all work that canadians wouldnt dream of doing, because we're lazy ####s... these workers come for 4-8months, make $16/hr and work 70-80hr weeks... go home rich as all hell. most return. they love it.

if these farm workers didnt come, it'd be an apocalypse. and at first, they werent coming... then the govt realized we had to, so theyre coming and being palced in instant quarantine.

 
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Today has been a rough mental day for me.  I've been a positive voice with the family (thanks to many things shared in this thread) but I don't know if it is due to my sister being in quarantine due to being exposed as a healthcare worker last week, personally knowing a few people fighting through the virus right now (one in ICU) or that for the first time I can remember, as a family we aren't getting all together on Easter... Either way, I've been struggling keeping my head up today.  My boss asked me why I was being extra snarky on a conference call we had today.  

My wife and I are still working, healthy, bills are all current... No good reason to be down today. I honestly can't give a good reason for my glum mood today over yesterday or any other recent day.  Anyone else fighting "getting in their feelings" over this?
Sounds like you have plenty of good reasons with this hitting close to home for you. It's ok to feel your feelings. This whole situation is really messed up. I'm at home. We are both working. Kids safe at home. Don't personally know anyone directly affected (yet, knock on wood) but it's a global pandemic. It's turned the world upside down. It's surreal. No right or wrong way to react right now other than we have to try be patient with each other. Sounds like your boss needs to open their eyes to reality.

 
Today has been a rough mental day for me.  I've been a positive voice with the family (thanks to many things shared in this thread) but I don't know if it is due to my sister being in quarantine due to being exposed as a healthcare worker last week, personally knowing a few people fighting through the virus right now (one in ICU) or that for the first time I can remember, as a family we aren't getting all together on Easter... Either way, I've been struggling keeping my head up today.  My boss asked me why I was being extra snarky on a conference call we had today.  

My wife and I are still working, healthy, bills are all current... No good reason to be down today. I honestly can't give a good reason for my glum mood today over yesterday or any other recent day.  Anyone else fighting "getting in their feelings" over this?
Only an idiot sits in a burning house and thinks that everything is fine because fruit is sweet.

 
Ooh, lots of similar numbers in states from yesterday to today. There are some increases, but a lot of potential hotspots wobbled just a bit. Stay at home, we can beat this stupid virus!
All in all, not a good day per covid worldometers.  Total cases approaching 80,000 for the day after about 70K yesterday.  Deaths today climbed over 7,000 (vs 5K+ yesterday).  France, with some more catch-up reporting?, has passed Germany in cases.

Continually worrisome are the 10% to as much as 20% case increases in Russia and the former SSRs; the middle east; several African and South American countries.

eta: New case count around 85,000.

 
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Today has been a rough mental day for me.  I've been a positive voice with the family (thanks to many things shared in this thread) but I don't know if it is due to my sister being in quarantine due to being exposed as a healthcare worker last week, personally knowing a few people fighting through the virus right now (one in ICU) or that for the first time I can remember, as a family we aren't getting all together on Easter... Either way, I've been struggling keeping my head up today.  My boss asked me why I was being extra snarky on a conference call we had today.  

My wife and I are still working, healthy, bills are all current... No good reason to be down today. I honestly can't give a good reason for my glum mood today over yesterday or any other recent day.  Anyone else fighting "getting in their feelings" over this?
Don’t beat yourself up. You’re allowed to have a bad day with all that’s going on. 

 
Did a mandatory visit with my primary care doc yesterday. Couldn’t do telehealth since it was for a controlled substance (sleeping aid). I said I did not want to go into their office. They said no problem. Had me drive to the far end of the parking lot where they had orange cones put up. Nurse walks out with a rolling bag. Mask/gloves on. Same for me. She takes my blood pressure, stands back and asks several questions. Said all good - refills the prescription.  New world 
 

 
Interesting article on Sweden's approach to combating the virus

Sweden went the opposite route and seem to be thriving
Harvey Keitel, as The Wolf in Pulp Fiction, spoke a fitting and pithy quote about situations such as this one.

Another perspective on Sweden's coronavirus measures (Washington Post 4/6/2020), taking not an opposite perspective but a broader one
Am i reading this right?

On Sunday, the number of dead surpassed 400 — a higher fatality rate per capita than in the United States or any other Scandinavian country

 
Did a mandatory visit with my primary care doc yesterday. Couldn’t do telehealth since it was for a controlled substance (sleeping aid). I said I did not want to go into their office. They said no problem. Had me drive to the far end of the parking lot where they had orange cones put up. Nurse walks out with a rolling bag. Mask/gloves on. Same for me. She takes my blood pressure, stands back and asks several questions. Said all good - refills the prescription.  New world 
 
My primary care doc is kinda hot. So, I brushed my hair for the first time in a couple weeks for my telemedicine appointment this afternoon.

 
Today has been a rough mental day for me.  I've been a positive voice with the family (thanks to many things shared in this thread) but I don't know if it is due to my sister being in quarantine due to being exposed as a healthcare worker last week, personally knowing a few people fighting through the virus right now (one in ICU) or that for the first time I can remember, as a family we aren't getting all together on Easter... Either way, I've been struggling keeping my head up today.  My boss asked me why I was being extra snarky on a conference call we had today.  

My wife and I are still working, healthy, bills are all current... No good reason to be down today. I honestly can't give a good reason for my glum mood today over yesterday or any other recent day.  Anyone else fighting "getting in their feelings" over this?
It’s starting to become real and I think we’re all coming to grips with the possibility that this could be our “Rome is burning@ moment. 

 
So unemployment numbers represent folks who could have jobs but dont want the ones available?
Do you think a bunch of restaurant servers know how to efficiently pick farm produce overnight? These guys are working crazy hours most US workers in the service industry wouldn’t put up with that for very long.

 
So unemployment numbers represent folks who could have jobs but dont want the ones available?
Do you think a bunch of restaurant servers know how to efficiently pick farm produce overnight? These guys are working crazy hours most US workers in the service industry wouldn’t put up with that for very long.
I dont understand your point.

 
French news (France 2) tonight says that of the total deaths in France, approximately 75-80% of them were overweight/obese individuals.

They're finding similar numbers in Italy as well, according to the report.

For those that arent aware, being overweight in those countries isn't like here in North America...

 
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flapgreen said:
Now imagine if the leaders in charge in New York and New Jersey hadn't acted like fools in the beginning, just because they wanted to do the opposite of Trump, would've acted responsibly. We'd have half as many deaths in the country. Maybe 6k or 7k deaths in a country of over 300 million people.  Fauci and the political hacks posing as medical professionals at the top have sold a lie to the American people and created an exponentially greater threat to our country's economy than the virus. You isolate the high risk folks from the beginning and eliminate huge gatherings.  Hell, keep businesses open, outside and do the social distancing thing from the beginning, outside of maybe the largest cities like New York and save just as many people bit we more jobs and the economy intact. 
We don't have a "You're Completely Wrong" Form, so maybe take it to the Political Thread

 
Do you think a bunch of restaurant servers know how to efficiently pick farm produce overnight? These guys are working crazy hours most US workers in the service industry wouldn’t put up with that for very long.
70 and upwards of 90hrs/week here in Niagara. No joke. These workers deserve every penny and loads more.

 
70 and upwards of 90hrs/week here in Niagara. No joke. These workers deserve every penny and loads more.
Seems like workers probably could get better hours if the choice is no workers vs workers at reduced hours.

The reason nobody would take the job right now is because it would be a pay cut. 

 
Seems like workers probably could get better hours if the choice is no workers vs workers at reduced hours.

The reason nobody would take the job right now is because it would be a pay cut. 
well, these foreign workers WANT the hours.... i mean, im sure theyd prefer 40 over 80, but they get paid for 80... and they return home and live like absolute KINGS.

i usually get a few guys to some extra work for me on the side, and party with them at the end of the season at their "thank you" party. generally really good ppl

almost the entirety of workers in this area come from mexico and jamaica. 

 
Interesting article on Sweden's approach to combating the virus

Sweden went the opposite route and seem to be thriving
Harvey Keitel, as The Wolf in Pulp Fiction, spoke a fitting and pithy quote about situations such as this one.

Another perspective on Sweden's coronavirus measures (Washington Post 4/6/2020), taking not an opposite perspective but a broader one
Am i reading this right?

On Sunday, the number of dead (in Sweden) surpassed 400 — a higher fatality rate per capita than in the United States or any other Scandinavian country
Reading it right -- per Worldometers right now:

Country (Deaths/Cases, Current CFR)
--------------------------------------------

Iceland (6/1586, <0.4%)
Norway (89/5953, 1.5%)
Sweden (593/7693, 7.7%)
Denmark (203/5071, 4.0%)
Finland (34/2308, 1.4%)

 
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Today has been a rough mental day for me.  I've been a positive voice with the family (thanks to many things shared in this thread) but I don't know if it is due to my sister being in quarantine due to being exposed as a healthcare worker last week, personally knowing a few people fighting through the virus right now (one in ICU) or that for the first time I can remember, as a family we aren't getting all together on Easter... Either way, I've been struggling keeping my head up today.  My boss asked me why I was being extra snarky on a conference call we had today.  

My wife and I are still working, healthy, bills are all current... No good reason to be down today. I honestly can't give a good reason for my glum mood today over yesterday or any other recent day.  Anyone else fighting "getting in their feelings" over this?
Pretty much my exact situation. Today is when the overall ####ty feeling hit me too. 

 
top dog said:
Today has been a rough mental day for me.  I've been a positive voice with the family (thanks to many things shared in this thread) but I don't know if it is due to my sister being in quarantine due to being exposed as a healthcare worker last week, personally knowing a few people fighting through the virus right now (one in ICU) or that for the first time I can remember, as a family we aren't getting all together on Easter... Either way, I've been struggling keeping my head up today.  My boss asked me why I was being extra snarky on a conference call we had today.  

My wife and I are still working, healthy, bills are all current... No good reason to be down today. I honestly can't give a good reason for my glum mood today over yesterday or any other recent day.  Anyone else fighting "getting in their feelings" over this?
Hang in there, Buddy. Lots of this doesn't make sense. I think we all go through up and down cycles on this. Sometimes it's not easy to point to exact things. Keep working through. 

 
shader said:
Yeah, but if you read the story, you get a bit of a different view than the headline.

"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said"

I think that's a significant point and one I made a few days ago when this was linked.  The assumption I've always been under, because this is the assumption that the WHO made, is that most people that contract Covid-19 eventually end up showing some symptoms, whether mild or otherwise.  I haven't really seen any data that shows whether this is the case or not.  Even the little town of Vo had one study early on, but then they never followed up to see who all ended up showing some symptoms.

For you and I, this is probably no big deal as we've been following this a long time.  But there are still some that think that a giant number of "asymptomatic cases" (defined by them as people who have covid-19 and never show any symptoms) might be out there and that really this virus isn't a big deal.

It's important to be accurate because if the "just a flu bro" thinking comes back, people may stop quarantining.  That's the only reason I fight this everytime I see it come up.  It's vitally important that people know that this is a very dangerous virus that kills 1-5% (possibly more) of people and that if governments let it run rampant, we'd literally see millions of deaths across the world and all hospitals would basically fall apart.  You know that, I know that, but I'm convinced there are still a lot of people who don't believe that. 
You think that. You don’t know that. Huge difference. And count me in the “don’t believe it” camp that it would be in the millions and millions. You seem to want the quarantines to last indefinitely. Not gonna happen. 

 
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tri-man 47 said:
All in all, not a good day per covid worldometers.  Total cases approaching 80,000 for the day after about 70K yesterday.  Deaths today climbed over 7,000 (vs 5K+ yesterday).  France, with some more catch-up reporting?, has passed Germany in cases.

Continually worrisome are the 10% to as much as 20% case increases in Russia and the former SSRs; the middle east; several African and South American countries.
We've tested 0.6% of our population in the US.  We've tested over 2M people.  Only Italy, Spain, and Germany have tested a higher percentage of their population, and no other country has performed more than 918k tests(Germany).  Even in America, with perhaps a million tests being currently available, we're not testing mild to moderate cases in many areas yet.  I don't think we'll ever get a handle on the real numbers until antibody testing is rolled out in force. 

Areas like Eastern Europe, most of the middle East, Africa, and Central and South America are WAY behind in the testing process.  Most of those areas have tested less than 0.1% of their populace.

 
Florida new cases and deaths by day

4/3 - 1260 , 26

4/4 - 1277,  25

4/5-  805,  26

4/6 - 1279, 33

4/7 - 1118, 42

New cases kind of flattening out but deaths ticking higher.

 
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So today Cuomo (I'm a NY'er, the island, not the city) was talking about 'antibodies' and how the best way to beat this and keep it gone is when people beat it, they develop an immunity to it. And they are considering opening the state back up in waves with people who have had it and beat it allowed out first. 

Ok great, so is he saying that everyone has to have this thing for it essentially to be gone? We've been holed up in our house for weeks mainly b/c I have 2 immune-suppressed people (wife and daughter) here and I have bad asthma. Yes, we are staying locked in mainly b/c we dont want to catch it at the height when hospitals are maxed out, but is he inferring that at some point, we need to be exposed to this thing to be safe in the future?

 
shader said:
Doug B said:
@shader , very small country (population ~360,000) ... but Iceland has taken a crack at sampling their population for coronavirus infection.

Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms (CNN, 4/3/2020)

The island nation has tested roughly 1 in 20 Icelanders as of last Friday.
Yeah, but if you read the story, you get a bit of a different view than the headline.

"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said
Crud. I got fooled. Was so stoked to see some place finally start real sampling that I took only a superficial look.

Still, with the number of tests Iceland seems to have ready to go ... maybe they can come back around on their asymptomatic carriers and see if any stay at either no symptoms or low symptoms.

 
I try to look at the positives and appreciate our luck in being in a much better position than most, but future uncertainty can turn me. It was 88 today, and kids were having a blast in the pool. Tunes blaring. Wife had a beer, me a red wine, and I had to shake off being snippy and irritated. Really trying to focus on the positives, because there is a lot to, dare I say, enjoy about adjusting to life with time to pursue things other than work.

We’ve been a week and two days into isolating at home and it’s a big adjustment. Stress, but under the surface. Try your best to feel gratitude, really appreciate the good things, at least in proportion to the bad or fear. 

But don’t feel like you need to have it figured out or be perfect in every moment. Hang in.
This has been my MO for the past month.  I can't say how grateful I have been to this thread for opening my eyes to this months ago.  I've been on top of this for a long time.  We are stocked up on necessities, cleaning supplies, etc.  The wife and I have had some great conversations that wouldn't have been had in normal busy times..  Tried to focus on the positives.. Been extremely happy with our states response to this and all that.  But damn some of this is taxing.  I've been fighting with my employer for a month on the proper approach to this.  At this point I've lost all faith in our company's leadership and I've been with this company since 1996.  Thought the company was different.  My oldest daughter is now unemployed, but hanging in there taking care of my father who is 85 and stubborn as hell.  Felt the need to go shopping the other morning before she got up.  Came home with soda and chips!  Can't say I totally blame him.  His wife has been dead since 2004, he's beaten a heart attack many years ago and two bouts with cancer.  His back is horrible and he is in constant pain from it.  Not sure I'd just sit around doing nothing at that point.  My oldest son is stationed in the middle east and may not come home when they planned.  Talk of extending their deployment stateside to help if things get much worse.  My youngest son works at Walmart in grocery. He gets beat up every day he goes in and I have to give him the pep talk how he truly IS one of the essential ones out there.  That he is young, in shape, never smoked... That he needs to be there to help the rest of us.  I've worked hard to keep my wife's head above water and out of her feelings through all of that as well. 

I guess sometimes I need that "pep talk" as well.  Thanks to everyone who had kind words to say.  It's just a bad day.  We all have them.  Tomorrow will be one day closer to getting through this BS I guess.

 
So today Cuomo (I'm a NY'er, the island, not the city) was talking about 'antibodies' and how the best way to beat this and keep it gone is when people beat it, they develop an immunity to it. And they are considering opening the state back up in waves with people who have had it and beat it allowed out first. 

Ok great, so is he saying that everyone has to have this thing for it essentially to be gone? We've been holed up in our house for weeks mainly b/c I have 2 immune-suppressed people (wife and daughter) here and I have bad asthma. Yes, we are staying locked in mainly b/c we dont want to catch it at the height when hospitals are maxed out, but is he inferring that at some point, we need to be exposed to this thing to be safe in the future?
I don’t think so. Think he is saying that to avoid a huge resurgence very quickly we can’t open it up to everyone At once. First let’s get out folks who have immunity, then next batch will be low risk folks and then high risk. 
 

Though I do think in your situation (multiple high risk) you will be later/last group to open up. 

 

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