rockaction
Footballguy
Oof. The good Dr. apparently needs to brush up on Article One, Section Eight, Clause Eight for some edification.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
For all the talk about how Florida is handling this crisis, I'm impressed with the number of tests they've been able to administer. It looks like they are third (by state) in most tests administered at 144,570 tests. When you then consider their total cases (15,698...8th most by state) and their COVID-19 deaths (323....11th most by state), I'd say they are responding well with their testing measures.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
JaxBill
Footballguy
I canceled last night. I'll probably book something there in a few weeks but it might be slightly later in summer.
While things are looking better than expected in Florida, there's still a ton of uncertainty. I read where IRB currently has so many cancellations that the original Crabby Bill's has temporarily closed.
NotSmart
Footballguy
beer 30
Footballguy
I'm not laying bodies on this guy but all these folks that took a stand on the wrong side of this fence on national TV and this dude was adament should bear some responsibility for their actions. Trish Reagan? got canned from FOX, Dr. Drew should be looking for work soon too.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Yes we know, as close to the US as they can get and still have Universal health care and a balanced budget.
I'm glad your country is doing good. Thanks again to the Canadian government for sounding the alarm on the hidden pandemic in Woohan. No telling how much worse this virus would have been without the relentless requests for information from the Chinese on the world stage.
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proteus126
Footballguy
German antibody study suggest fatality rate of 0.37%
Thoughts? That's in the ballpark of what I expected. More studies ongoing, but at least data is beginning to come in and this type of analysis is starting to be done. This was from a ~1000 person study. They are also currently working on a 100,000 person study.
Thoughts? That's in the ballpark of what I expected. More studies ongoing, but at least data is beginning to come in and this type of analysis is starting to be done. This was from a ~1000 person study. They are also currently working on a 100,000 person study.
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msommer
Footballguy
Just an update on Scandinavia:
Comparing to Norway (5.3m) and Denmark (5.8m) Sweden has 10.3m.
In Norway the population density is 15/sqkm, Sweden 25/sqkm and Denmark 134/sqkm
Norway has made 21,000 tests per 1m inhabitants, Denmark 11,000 and Swden 5,500
Norway has had 101 deaths, Sweden 793, Denmark 237.
The past 4 days Norway has averaged about 10 dead a day, Denmark 16-17, Sweden about 100 dead per day.
#Swedeniswinning?
Comparing to Norway (5.3m) and Denmark (5.8m) Sweden has 10.3m.
In Norway the population density is 15/sqkm, Sweden 25/sqkm and Denmark 134/sqkm
Norway has made 21,000 tests per 1m inhabitants, Denmark 11,000 and Swden 5,500
Norway has had 101 deaths, Sweden 793, Denmark 237.
The past 4 days Norway has averaged about 10 dead a day, Denmark 16-17, Sweden about 100 dead per day.
#Swedeniswinning?
rockaction
Footballguy
Didn't Sweden specifically refuse social distancing as policy because of their models?
msommer
Footballguy
They do have a restriction on how many people can be assembled (I believe 50) but they have kept schools, nurseries and kindergarten open, as well as generally not shut down stores, bars, cafes etc.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's right. I was reading an article the other night -- or was it last week? -- and had noted that they deviated from most of the Western countries due to their own projections. Some experts in Sweden complained about the process that was used, IIRC. Regardless, best of luck to them.
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
It's a long article that doesn't lend itself well to copy-and-pasting. I'll try summarize it as objectively as I can, and other folks can weigh in to correct me if they feel that I'm getting it wrong.Nathan R. Jessep said:
Basically, people who know what they're doing -- experts at the CDC, FDA, research universities, commercial labs, etc. -- all knew back in early January that we needed to develop a test for covid-19. But the US completely and totally lost six weeks of time because of a combination of three issues. First, the FDA committed pretty strongly to a test designed by the CDC, which put all our proverbial eggs in one basket. That might have worked out okay but for the second major failure, which was that CDC test didn't work. Finally, the declaration of public heath emergency actually increased the hurdles involved in developing tests because policy in this area is very badly written. The result of all of this is that the US ended up way behind where it needed to be when it comes to testing.
I have lots of thoughts on this issue, but I'm going to leave them out of this post because I don't want to muddle a basic summary of the article with my own analysis.
Seems on the low end - study was only just over 500 people so I doubt statistically meaningful.
Bill Gates was interviewed and he has access to much better data and he is estimating a 1-1.2% fatality rate. I think that's much more accurate. Either way, it's definitely way lower than the published statistics that have people freaking out due to lack of proper testing.
Doug B
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
That'd be fantastic if the CFR turns out to be as low as .37. But even if true we need to recognize that German is starting with one of the lowest CFR's to begin with. They seem to have done a very good job thus far. So next step will be to replicate what Germany did to keep hospitals from being over run and whatever else they did to achieve the CFR they got. Then add new treatments and smart social distancing on top of that!
jamny
Footballguy
Good summary.
I still don't understand why the CDC didn't use the testing that had already been developed. I guess just because they thought they could do it quickly?
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
I think the point of the study is that very, very few people have access to data on a random sample of citizens to understand who had the virus but didn't know it or simply attributed it to something else. Gates doesn't have THAT data.
moleculo
Footballguy
I'd like to know why we couldn't simply adapt to what S. Korea was doing once our own testing was behind schedule. When we were 1 week behind, why were we not looking for a parallel path approach?
shader
Footballguy
If those results are seen elsewhere, that would be good news. CFR can’t be calculated in Germany and used worldwide, as they haven’t been as hard hit. Germany is starting to see their deaths rise too, btw. But I think we all expect cfr to fall once antibody studies are done.
The more relevant issue is how close we get to herd immunity due to antibody testing.
shader
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
This whole situation is horrible and we are rightfully all taking precautions and hoping and praying for the best for our families and fellow citizens - I do think we need to remind ourselves that the vast majority of cases recover. It’s not a death sentence. That doesn’t mean we don’t need to remain vigilant but at some point most of us will get this and we don’t need to panic. It’s ok to be optimistic while still being cautious.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Osaurus
Footballguy
I think some political motivation factors into the number of tests given in FL. It’s great that so many have been done, but we’re not out of the woods yet. We haven’t peaked yet in the Tampa area and other populated areas are on a similar trajectory. With the Feds ending funds for testing starting tomorrow, I think the number of new daily tests will diminish.
chet
Footballguy
toshiba
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
That's good news. Let's see what the Iceland study does, as I think they are seeking to test nearly the entire population.
Uncle Ruslan
Footballguy
ABC News was pushing a story yesterday that the National Center for Medical Intelligence warned the administration of the virus in November and it was ignored.
NCMI says that's fake news
NCMI says that's fake news
Doug B
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
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msommer
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
I believe it was in the article as something Germany was trying to determine. Admittedly, it's pretty far-fetched that we are anywhere close to that in any country. But some still seem to be under the assumption that this is far more widespread than we know, to the point of being close to herd immunity. I guess time will tell.
shader
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
At least you didn't post the stock quote directly in your post. It's still the first thing people see on the public releases, which angers me to no end.
Uncle Ruslan
Footballguy
Dr. Annie Bukacek sounds the alarm about the inaccuracy of Covid-19 death numbers
Some dude gives her hosannas to about the 1:45 mark, so I'd start after that point.
Some dude gives her hosannas to about the 1:45 mark, so I'd start after that point.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
That's a pretty good number and I would imagine would produce statistically significant results on CFR and other metrics. Still not enough to identify who is at risk and who has gained the immunity idol.
moleculo
Footballguy
I think close to herd immunity any time soon is wishful thinking. Still, herd ummunity would be much closer if the "widespread asymptomatic theory" were true.
It's improving, but we are still (mostly) only testing those with symptoms in the US. And, roughly 80% of those tests come back negative, so I'm not sure how much stock we can put into that theory.
msommer
Footballguy
The Faroe Islands are roughly the same but I'd doubt they are as internationally connected as Iceland who are probably less so than the rest of Europe. Not sure we can use their numbers to generalize
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Potentially. Where I am (North of Boston), they care more about treating patients than testing people. If people have symptoms, they are considered presumptive positive. There still aren’t a ton of tests available, and the healthcare folks aren’t that into testing them. The protocol here is to tell people that they are likely positive and stay home. Call back if they get worse. The last place they want people is at a hospital, as they will likely catch it if they are negative (or spread it if they are positive).TheWinz said:
The part that is cluttering up the numbers is people can go through everything and pass away without being tested. They may or may not be included in the fatality numbers and they may or may not be tested after they died. Also, some people have died at home that never went to a doctor. Not sure if those get tabulated all the time.
On the flip side, some people are dying and getting the COVID label and that may not have even been their cause of death. So bottom line, the reporting and numbers are as clear as mud.
The Commish
Footballguy
So...been reluctant to even bring this up given the general trolling that goes on (hopefully better here than the PSF), but Mrs Commish was tested on Monday. Thurs/Fri last week we were outside in really nice weather doing random yard work and the like. Friday evening she started complaining about aching body etc and had a slight cough. We dismissed it as being out of shape and our allergies. Saturday and Sunday her cough got worse and her chest began to feel "heavy" in her words. She has the mildest of fevers and has been able to maintain comfort with a single 500Mg Tylenol in most instances. She's had times during the day this week where she's felt fatigued and took a nap. She never takes naps.
She decided Monday morning she'd go get tested. It took her the better part of 6 hours of phone calls, filling out papers etc to get to a site to be tested. The paperwork gave a timeline of "several days" before she'd hear of her results. It's now Thursday and still nothing. Knowing that there are over a million swabs sitting, waiting to be processed it makes us both wonder what the point is. We're in a state that is supposedly focused on testing too. I can't imagine the states that aren't. I mentioned another friend of mine in NC that it took 9 days before she got her result and it was "inconclusive"...most likely because it sat to long and/or in the rush it got contaminated during processing.
So, we'll all sit here (at a distance of course) waiting. This isn't fun and I get REALLY annoyed when I am out and see normal traffic flows in the area. I'm now the person who is the hunter/gatherer of necessities and I do see those that are out trying to abide by the 6 foot rule, which is good. It's not as good as staying home, but it's better than normal I guess. I've left the house once in the last 10 days to go in a store and once to get gas in the car. Prior to feeling bad my wife was the one going grocery shopping, but that's all we've done with one trip to do blood work (that's a whole other issue though). We have no idea how she would have gotten it. She's a germaphobe's germaphobe.
The good news is, she seems to respond to cough suppressant medication, so it's not constant but for her it's the waiting part that's stressing her out. Hopefully we will get an answer within the week. It's tough trying to keep the 3 year old away from her. He doesn't have a clue what's going on and just wants to read books with mama. We do a lot of hand washing and a lot of wiping down counters and putting our own dishes in the dishwasher etc. This sucks....thanks for letting me air this out here.
She decided Monday morning she'd go get tested. It took her the better part of 6 hours of phone calls, filling out papers etc to get to a site to be tested. The paperwork gave a timeline of "several days" before she'd hear of her results. It's now Thursday and still nothing. Knowing that there are over a million swabs sitting, waiting to be processed it makes us both wonder what the point is. We're in a state that is supposedly focused on testing too. I can't imagine the states that aren't. I mentioned another friend of mine in NC that it took 9 days before she got her result and it was "inconclusive"...most likely because it sat to long and/or in the rush it got contaminated during processing.
So, we'll all sit here (at a distance of course) waiting. This isn't fun and I get REALLY annoyed when I am out and see normal traffic flows in the area. I'm now the person who is the hunter/gatherer of necessities and I do see those that are out trying to abide by the 6 foot rule, which is good. It's not as good as staying home, but it's better than normal I guess. I've left the house once in the last 10 days to go in a store and once to get gas in the car. Prior to feeling bad my wife was the one going grocery shopping, but that's all we've done with one trip to do blood work (that's a whole other issue though). We have no idea how she would have gotten it. She's a germaphobe's germaphobe.
The good news is, she seems to respond to cough suppressant medication, so it's not constant but for her it's the waiting part that's stressing her out. Hopefully we will get an answer within the week. It's tough trying to keep the 3 year old away from her. He doesn't have a clue what's going on and just wants to read books with mama. We do a lot of hand washing and a lot of wiping down counters and putting our own dishes in the dishwasher etc. This sucks....thanks for letting me air this out here.
gianmarco
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
I'm so sorry for the stress. My wife would be an absolute wreck if she had to wait that long to find out if she had the virus. Such a shame. Hang in there man, and feel free to air your frustrations out anytime. I hope things go well for your family.
the moops
Footballguy
I used to be in the PSF all the time. Now, when I go back in there, I feel dirty.
This thread is a million times more tolerant and respectful and helpful :hug:
shader
Footballguy
Something in Commish post I was thinking about. Have you guys noticed a higher level of traffic lately? I've actually cut it back personally, haven't left the house in awhile.
But I've heard anecdotally that it's very busy out there.
None of the models build in what happens if Americans start taking this less seriously. But I have a feeling that's what could happen.
As an example, in my area springtime weather has been here for about a week. I've heard anecdotal reports of it being much busier over the past week. If true, we should see a spike in cases happen about a week from now.
Something to consider. All the models have this really nice-looking curve that goes up and slowly goes down to zero. Reality is likely to be nothing like this, unless everyone is in their homes. And that appears to not be happening.
How is it in your area?
But I've heard anecdotally that it's very busy out there.
None of the models build in what happens if Americans start taking this less seriously. But I have a feeling that's what could happen.
As an example, in my area springtime weather has been here for about a week. I've heard anecdotal reports of it being much busier over the past week. If true, we should see a spike in cases happen about a week from now.
Something to consider. All the models have this really nice-looking curve that goes up and slowly goes down to zero. Reality is likely to be nothing like this, unless everyone is in their homes. And that appears to not be happening.
How is it in your area?
Klimtology
Footballguy
Simulation shows how a cough can spread coronavirus in supermarkets
Does this sound reasonable or is it an exaggeration?
https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/simulation-shows-how-a-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-a-store/
Does this sound reasonable or is it an exaggeration?
https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/simulation-shows-how-a-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-a-store/
shader
Footballguy
https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=gts2_broadway
Along those lines...... A week ago I was checking NYC webcams a lot. I haven't checked in awhile but there have never been this many people on this cam as long as I've watched over the last few weeks. Any New Yorkers confirm/deny what we are seeing here?
Worm
slimy ninja
No idea ... but it's a good illustration of why masks are to prevent *you* from spreading it to others in a grocery store / public place.
