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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)

I believe it was in the article as something Germany was trying to determine.  Admittedly, it's pretty far-fetched that we are anywhere close to that in any country.  But some still seem to be under the assumption that this is far more widespread than we know, to the point of being close to herd immunity.  I guess time will tell.
I think I was tripped up by "... herd immunity due to antibody testing". If I change "due to" to "revealed by", I think I catch your meaning.

 
Simulation shows how a cough can spread coronavirus in supermarkets

Does this sound reasonable or is it an exaggeration? 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/simulation-shows-how-a-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-a-store/
I'd buy it....to the point that, when I'm in the store, I don't go down an isle with others in it.  I wait for it to clear.  If it's taking forever, then I'll go down an isle if there's another person there.  Once I am done with the shopping, I go to my truck, open the door, load the groceries, sanitize my hands.  Come home unload the groceries in the garage and throw the bags away...sanitize my hands, then go about putting it all away.  That STILL leaves me open to touching a product that someone with the virus has touched in the store.  This is why I'm one of those crazy people who dig to the back of the products to get ones at the back and even that STILL leaves me open to a stocker that might have the virus.  It really is best to just stay home.  I bought enough food for two weeks this time around instead of just one week.  The less I am in the store the better.

 
So...been reluctant to even bring this up given the general trolling that goes on (hopefully better here than the PSF), but Mrs Commish was tested on Monday.  Thurs/Fri last week we were outside in really nice weather doing random yard work and the like.  Friday evening she started complaining about aching body etc and had a slight cough.  We dismissed it as being out of shape and our allergies.  Saturday and Sunday her cough got worse and her chest began to feel "heavy" in her words.  She has the mildest of fevers and has been able to maintain comfort with a single 500Mg Tylenol in most instances.  She's had times during the day this week where she's felt fatigued and took a nap.  She never takes naps.

She decided Monday morning she'd go get tested.  It took her the better part of 6 hours of phone calls, filling out papers etc to get to a site to be tested.  The paperwork gave a timeline of "several days" before she'd hear of her results.  It's now Thursday and still nothing.  Knowing that there are over a million swabs sitting, waiting to be processed it makes us both wonder what the point is.  We're in a state that is supposedly focused on testing too.  I can't imagine the states that aren't.  I mentioned another friend of mine in NC that it took 9 days before she got her result and it was "inconclusive"...most likely because it sat to long and/or in the rush it got contaminated during processing.  

So, we'll all sit here (at a distance of course) waiting.  This isn't fun and I get REALLY annoyed when I am out and see normal traffic flows in the area.  I'm now the person who is the hunter/gatherer of necessities and I do see those that are out trying to abide by the 6 foot rule, which is good.  It's not as good as staying home, but it's better than normal I guess.  I've left the house once in the last 10 days to go in a store and once to get gas in the car.  Prior to feeling bad my wife was the one going grocery shopping, but that's all we've done with one trip to do blood work (that's a whole other issue though).  We have no idea how she would have gotten it.  She's a germaphobe's germaphobe.  

The good news is, she seems to respond to cough suppressant medication, so it's not constant but for her it's the waiting part that's stressing her out.  Hopefully we will get an answer within the week.  It's tough trying to keep the 3 year old away from her.  He doesn't have a clue what's going on and just wants to read books with mama.  We do a lot of hand washing and a lot of wiping down counters and putting our own dishes in the dishwasher etc.  This sucks....thanks for letting me air this out here.
Best of luck to you and Mrs. The Commish.

I have a future brother in law in NJ that is waiting on test results too.  I think he was tested on Tuesday.  Stinks that the results aren't available within a few hours.

 
So...been reluctant to even bring this up given the general trolling that goes on (hopefully better here than the PSF), but Mrs Commish was tested on Monday.  Thurs/Fri last week we were outside in really nice weather doing random yard work and the like.  Friday evening she started complaining about aching body etc and had a slight cough.  We dismissed it as being out of shape and our allergies.  Saturday and Sunday her cough got worse and her chest began to feel "heavy" in her words.  She has the mildest of fevers and has been able to maintain comfort with a single 500Mg Tylenol in most instances.  She's had times during the day this week where she's felt fatigued and took a nap.  She never takes naps.

She decided Monday morning she'd go get tested.  It took her the better part of 6 hours of phone calls, filling out papers etc to get to a site to be tested.  The paperwork gave a timeline of "several days" before she'd hear of her results.  It's now Thursday and still nothing.  Knowing that there are over a million swabs sitting, waiting to be processed it makes us both wonder what the point is.  We're in a state that is supposedly focused on testing too.  I can't imagine the states that aren't.  I mentioned another friend of mine in NC that it took 9 days before she got her result and it was "inconclusive"...most likely because it sat to long and/or in the rush it got contaminated during processing.  

So, we'll all sit here (at a distance of course) waiting.  This isn't fun and I get REALLY annoyed when I am out and see normal traffic flows in the area.  I'm now the person who is the hunter/gatherer of necessities and I do see those that are out trying to abide by the 6 foot rule, which is good.  It's not as good as staying home, but it's better than normal I guess.  I've left the house once in the last 10 days to go in a store and once to get gas in the car.  Prior to feeling bad my wife was the one going grocery shopping, but that's all we've done with one trip to do blood work (that's a whole other issue though).  We have no idea how she would have gotten it.  She's a germaphobe's germaphobe.  

The good news is, she seems to respond to cough suppressant medication, so it's not constant but for her it's the waiting part that's stressing her out.  Hopefully we will get an answer within the week.  It's tough trying to keep the 3 year old away from her.  He doesn't have a clue what's going on and just wants to read books with mama.  We do a lot of hand washing and a lot of wiping down counters and putting our own dishes in the dishwasher etc.  This sucks....thanks for letting me air this out here.
good luck and good health to Mrs Commish!

 
So...been reluctant to even bring this up given the general trolling that goes on (hopefully better here than the PSF), but Mrs Commish was tested on Monday.  Thurs/Fri last week we were outside in really nice weather doing random yard work and the like.  Friday evening she started complaining about aching body etc and had a slight cough.  We dismissed it as being out of shape and our allergies.  Saturday and Sunday her cough got worse and her chest began to feel "heavy" in her words.  She has the mildest of fevers and has been able to maintain comfort with a single 500Mg Tylenol in most instances.  She's had times during the day this week where she's felt fatigued and took a nap.  She never takes naps.

She decided Monday morning she'd go get tested.  It took her the better part of 6 hours of phone calls, filling out papers etc to get to a site to be tested.  The paperwork gave a timeline of "several days" before she'd hear of her results.  It's now Thursday and still nothing.  Knowing that there are over a million swabs sitting, waiting to be processed it makes us both wonder what the point is.  We're in a state that is supposedly focused on testing too.  I can't imagine the states that aren't.  I mentioned another friend of mine in NC that it took 9 days before she got her result and it was "inconclusive"...most likely because it sat to long and/or in the rush it got contaminated during processing.  

So, we'll all sit here (at a distance of course) waiting.  This isn't fun and I get REALLY annoyed when I am out and see normal traffic flows in the area.  I'm now the person who is the hunter/gatherer of necessities and I do see those that are out trying to abide by the 6 foot rule, which is good.  It's not as good as staying home, but it's better than normal I guess.  I've left the house once in the last 10 days to go in a store and once to get gas in the car.  Prior to feeling bad my wife was the one going grocery shopping, but that's all we've done with one trip to do blood work (that's a whole other issue though).  We have no idea how she would have gotten it.  She's a germaphobe's germaphobe.  

The good news is, she seems to respond to cough suppressant medication, so it's not constant but for her it's the waiting part that's stressing her out.  Hopefully we will get an answer within the week.  It's tough trying to keep the 3 year old away from her.  He doesn't have a clue what's going on and just wants to read books with mama.  We do a lot of hand washing and a lot of wiping down counters and putting our own dishes in the dishwasher etc.  This sucks....thanks for letting me air this out here.
Hang in there GB. 

 
Something in Commish post I was thinking about.  Have you guys noticed a higher level of traffic lately?  I've actually cut it back personally, haven't left the house in awhile.

But I've heard anecdotally that it's very busy out there.

None of the models build in what happens if Americans start taking this less seriously.  But I have a feeling that's what could happen.

As an example, in my area springtime weather has been here for about a week.  I've heard anecdotal reports of it being much busier over the past week.  If true, we should see a spike in cases happen about a week from now. 

Something to consider.  All the models have this really nice-looking curve that goes up and slowly goes down to zero.  Reality is likely to be nothing like this, unless everyone is in their homes.  And that appears to not be happening.

How is it in your area?
FWIW... Wife and I just "go out for a drive" every other day or so.  That and long, daily walks are our way to get away.  We don't stop and go in anywhere... just drive around for a bit.

 
I used to be in the PSF all the time. Now, when I go back in there, I feel dirty.

This thread is a million times more tolerant and respectful and helpful :hug:
I have yet to see anyone in the PSF troll someone who said that they or a family member may have or does have the virus. People have been very supportive and I don't recall any comments that have not been respectful. 

 
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It's a trainwreck watching reality clash with "alternate facts" all day, every day.  I can't take my eyes off it or help myself from participating.  I have issues :bag:  
I've resigned myself to accept the psf in it's current state is useless. From all sides. Everyone thinks if only "the other" side would be better it would change but it's all sides. The snark is out of control and it's just bickering and keyboard warriors and playing "gotcha" over and over. I'm ashamed to have our name associated with it but don't have the time or energy to deal with it. And please let this be a one comment thing and not derail this thread. I'm just sad about how all sides have ruined the psf. 

 
:thanks:  everyone.....reality is, this "change" for most people hasn't been a change for me all that much.  I work from home and am generally ok with being with just the family.  Those that know me socially on the board might be shocked to know I don't like people in general :D   So this has been sort of a vacation for me.  Normally, I am running around like a crazy person between my son's baseball team (coach) and my daughter's cheer team and competitions.  This is like summer break for me, and it's not been all that bad having them here with me in the house during the day.  We DEFINITELY are better off financially.  I've never had this sort of excess in our bank account one month to the next :lmao:   So it wasn't all that bad until my wife started feeling bad.  I still don't think it's the virus, but won't be sure until we get the results and she'll probably be better by the time they come in.  Last night was the first night in 4 days she slept through without having a coughing attack.

 
I have yet to see anyone in the PSF troll someone who said that they or a family member may have or does have the virus. People have been very supportive and I don't recall any comments that have not been respectful. 
Meh. The whole forum is super annoying and not all that helpful. I will leave it at that so as to not pollute this thread

 
NYC morning report of 4,169 cases and 166 deaths.  NYC will post numbers again this evening.  Edit to add - Not up on WorldoMeters yet.

 
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I'd buy it....to the point that, when I'm in the store, I don't go down an isle with others in it.  I wait for it to clear.  If it's taking forever, then I'll go down an isle if there's another person there.  Once I am done with the shopping, I go to my truck, open the door, load the groceries, sanitize my hands.  Come home unload the groceries in the garage and throw the bags away...sanitize my hands, then go about putting it all away.  That STILL leaves me open to touching a product that someone with the virus has touched in the store.  This is why I'm one of those crazy people who dig to the back of the products to get ones at the back and even that STILL leaves me open to a stocker that might have the virus.  It really is best to just stay home.  I bought enough food for two weeks this time around instead of just one week.  The less I am in the store the better.
Agree...we have got to using the Kroger pick up stuff (thankfully they have waived the fees).  Yes...the products may have ben touches by more than just the kid picking out my items.  But at the request of my wife...I actually wipe off the products as we take them out of the bags.  As much as you can.  And always wash before and after getting anything out of a bag or box.  For instance...the kids now will grab a can of pringles and actually pour some into a bowl at home.  Put the can away...wash their hands...then eat.  That type of thing.  Its not perfect...but I avoid going in as much as possible.  Of course...with the pickup stuff you have to predict almost a week in advance what you need.  I have had to run in for a few things that I did not anticipate.  Like you...its sanitize as much as possible.  To the point I have sanitizer with me in the store and after I touched everything...and put it there to be checked out.  I sanitied again before reaching for my wallet to pay.  Then again after touching the screen (if the clerk did not wipe it right before I got there).  Then again after I load into the car.  

 
So...been reluctant to even bring this up given the general trolling that goes on (hopefully better here than the PSF), but Mrs Commish was tested on Monday.
Simply want to wish you the best, GB. You're one of the good ones and have always given me a wide berth, which I appreciate. I hope Mrs. Commish beats whatever it is quickly and decisively. 

 
It's a trainwreck watching reality clash with "alternate facts" all day, every day.  I can't take my eyes off it or help myself from participating.  I have issues :bag:  
It is a cesspool-glad it exists to keep all that nonsense from creeping over here to the FFA. 

Sorry to hear about your wife--I think what you are encountering is what a lot of State's unofficial policies are--they are prioritizing tests for a certain cross-section and the rest are being thrown into the general queue and will be tested in time. I am scared to death of getting this--I know what it will mean to me, but for someone in your shoes, other than some distancing, what will the test results change in how she/you are treating her. Assume she has it--treat the symptoms and like the vast majority of Americans, she will be fine. If she has trouble breathing, then you escalate it to the ER, but understand you are doing everything right for your family. 

I have to say it is stories like this that scare me even more--my wife and I are doing all we can to avoid this and you hear about how infectious this virus is to people who are making  concerted avoidance efforts, it is terrifying.  GL man!!

 
It's a long article that doesn't lend itself well to copy-and-pasting.  I'll try summarize it as objectively as I can, and other folks can weigh in to correct me if they feel that I'm getting it wrong.

Basically, people who know what they're doing -- experts at the CDC, FDA, research universities, commercial labs, etc. -- all knew back in early January that we needed to develop a test for covid-19.  But the US completely and totally lost six weeks of time because of a combination of three issues.  First, the FDA committed pretty strongly to a test designed by the CDC, which put all our proverbial eggs in one basket.  That might have worked out okay but for the second major failure, which was that CDC test didn't work.  Finally, the declaration of public heath emergency actually increased the hurdles involved in developing tests because policy in this area is very badly written.  The result of all of this is that the US ended up way behind where it needed to be when it comes to testing.

I have lots of thoughts on this issue, but I'm going to leave them out of this post because I don't want to muddle a basic summary of the article with my own analysis.
Thanks for that summary.  Some of that I had read in this piece: https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the-regulationsand-regulatorsthat?fbclid=IwAR3SS3uPCla_6-FvzH3DPoqBS6Oxqes4XNXFajlrNf5gpn8mNEDfb7AY2jA from a few weeks ago, which may have drawn from some of the same sources. 

Something in Commish post I was thinking about.  Have you guys noticed a higher level of traffic lately?  I've actually cut it back personally, haven't left the house in awhile.

But I've heard anecdotally that it's very busy out there.

None of the models build in what happens if Americans start taking this less seriously.  But I have a feeling that's what could happen.

As an example, in my area springtime weather has been here for about a week.  I've heard anecdotal reports of it being much busier over the past week.  If true, we should see a spike in cases happen about a week from now. 

Something to consider.  All the models have this really nice-looking curve that goes up and slowly goes down to zero.  Reality is likely to be nothing like this, unless everyone is in their homes.  And that appears to not be happening.

How is it in your area?
as GB Kee said above, I've taken my kids on a "Sunday drive" a few times just to get out of our home and neighborhood for a bit. A couple of times to a remote private pond about 45 minutes away where we didn't stop anywhere else or contact anyone else. Point being, there could be a lot of people just out riding around to get out of the house. Especially now with more parks, etc. closing down (as they should). And gas is cheap right now so makes it even more enticing. 

 
NYC morning report of 4,169 cases and 166 deaths.  NYC will post numbers again this evening.  Edit to add - Not up on WorldoMeters yet.
Whoa that's a substantial drop.  Worldometers is probably waiting for the full state numbers if what you posted is just NYC>

 
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So...been reluctant to even bring this up given the general trolling that goes on (hopefully better here than the PSF), but Mrs Commish was tested on Monday.  Thurs/Fri last week we were outside in really nice weather doing random yard work and the like.  Friday evening she started complaining about aching body etc and had a slight cough.  We dismissed it as being out of shape and our allergies.  Saturday and Sunday her cough got worse and her chest began to feel "heavy" in her words.  She has the mildest of fevers and has been able to maintain comfort with a single 500Mg Tylenol in most instances.  She's had times during the day this week where she's felt fatigued and took a nap.  She never takes naps.

She decided Monday morning she'd go get tested.  It took her the better part of 6 hours of phone calls, filling out papers etc to get to a site to be tested.  The paperwork gave a timeline of "several days" before she'd hear of her results.  It's now Thursday and still nothing.  Knowing that there are over a million swabs sitting, waiting to be processed it makes us both wonder what the point is.  We're in a state that is supposedly focused on testing too.  I can't imagine the states that aren't.  I mentioned another friend of mine in NC that it took 9 days before she got her result and it was "inconclusive"...most likely because it sat to long and/or in the rush it got contaminated during processing.  

So, we'll all sit here (at a distance of course) waiting.  This isn't fun and I get REALLY annoyed when I am out and see normal traffic flows in the area.  I'm now the person who is the hunter/gatherer of necessities and I do see those that are out trying to abide by the 6 foot rule, which is good.  It's not as good as staying home, but it's better than normal I guess.  I've left the house once in the last 10 days to go in a store and once to get gas in the car.  Prior to feeling bad my wife was the one going grocery shopping, but that's all we've done with one trip to do blood work (that's a whole other issue though).  We have no idea how she would have gotten it.  She's a germaphobe's germaphobe.  

The good news is, she seems to respond to cough suppressant medication, so it's not constant but for her it's the waiting part that's stressing her out.  Hopefully we will get an answer within the week.  It's tough trying to keep the 3 year old away from her.  He doesn't have a clue what's going on and just wants to read books with mama.  We do a lot of hand washing and a lot of wiping down counters and putting our own dishes in the dishwasher etc.  This sucks....thanks for letting me air this out here.
Good luck gb hope she's ok. 

For the little one maybe try some things to make distancing seem as normal as possible. 

Try Saran Wrapping her into a room and letting them talk through the clear plastic.  

Use a phone or iPad to talk to mom in the other room.  Do the same with each other.  

If mom's feeling up to it, have her play hide and seek from another room on facetime or zoom or something.  Like where's Waldo but where's mommy.  Then do the same thing but you hide and then the kid hides.  

Play a game where you each go to your own area and when you go near the 3 year old, make exaggerated moves to avoid contact.  

Have mom read stories from a distance.  You read stories from a distance.  Then you can read stories together later. 

I know it's tough but hopefully you get through this ok and find out she wasn't that sick.  Good luck.  

 
It is a cesspool-glad it exists to keep all that nonsense from creeping over here to the FFA. 

Sorry to hear about your wife--I think what you are encountering is what a lot of State's unofficial policies are--they are prioritizing tests for a certain cross-section and the rest are being thrown into the general queue and will be tested in time. I am scared to death of getting this--I know what it will mean to me, but for someone in your shoes, other than some distancing, what will the test results change in how she/you are treating her. Assume she has it--treat the symptoms and like the vast majority of Americans, she will be fine. If she has trouble breathing, then you escalate it to the ER, but understand you are doing everything right for your family. 

I have to say it is stories like this that scare me even more--my wife and I are doing all we can to avoid this and you hear about how infectious this virus is to people who are making  concerted avoidance efforts, it is terrifying.  GL man!!
Yeah....I'd feel like a complete dirt bag if we weren't doing all we could.  It's quite unbelievable that we don't have the infrastructure and process in place to deal with stuff like this as a country.  Knowing that testing is probably THE MOST IMPORTANT aspect of this entire thing, it's mind boggling to see how difficult it is to get tested.  Here in Florida they have three large testing sites (North, Central and South) and they have so few supplies, they are typically done with their allotment for the day by noon (at least here in Central Florida).  I don't know how she found out about this one off site literally a mile from our house.  There were three cars there when she got there and the test took a matter of seconds....incredibly painful seconds, but seconds nonetheless.  It took 2.5 days to get the approval to do it though.  It's maddening that we STILL have restrictions on who can get testing.  I am of the opinion that we will NEVER know the full breadth of the crisis here and that hinders our ability to plan for the future.  It should be required that people be tested during their annual check ups this year and next to understand better how many people actually had it.  

 
Whoa that's a substantial drop.  Worldometers is probably waiting for the full state numbers if what you posted is just NYC>
Yup, also state numbers that Cuomo will announce will include NYC evening report from last night and today's morning report so they will be higher.  I pull the data from the NYC posting system and comparing them against the last nights numbers.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-archive.page

 
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Good luck gb hope she's ok. 

For the little one maybe try some things to make distancing seem as normal as possible. 

Try Saran Wrapping her into a room and letting them talk through the clear plastic.  

Use a phone or iPad to talk to mom in the other room.  Do the same with each other.  

If mom's feeling up to it, have her play hide and seek from another room on facetime or zoom or something.  Like where's Waldo but where's mommy.  Then do the same thing but you hide and then the kid hides.  

Play a game where you each go to your own area and when you go near the 3 year old, make exaggerated moves to avoid contact.  

Have mom read stories from a distance.  You read stories from a distance.  Then you can read stories together later. 

I know it's tough but hopefully you get through this ok and find out she wasn't that sick.  Good luck.  
Good suggestions.  Luckily, we have a good number of N95 masks (I do woodworking and carpentry as a hobby when I have time).  I donated three of the packs that I had (15 masks) but kept the open one.  She uses that and we use them any time we go in the room with her.  He's generally ok until he isn't if that makes sense.  His brother and sister do a good job with him for the most part but there are just those times where he wants his routine.  I get it.  I fill in, but it's not the same from his perspective.  It's getting better as we go, but it still flares up from time to time.  

To be honest, I have NO IDEA how anyone in NYC apartment can do the needful if a loved one has this.  I don't think it's possible in those tiny apartments.

 
Dr. Annie Bukacek sounds the alarm about the inaccuracy of Covid-19 death numbers

Some dude gives her hosannas to about the 1:45 mark, so I'd start after that point.
So lemme get this straight:

A doctor I have never heard of before, from Montana (the 47th hardest hit state), reached out to friends/family on facebook and couldn't find many Covid cases among this "convenience sample" and knowing that doctors are given complete autonomy to assign cause of death is estimating that this is a big hoax.  Did I get that right?  FWIW, I stopped watching after the 3 minute mark as I was fairly disgusted with the lack of rigor in the relevant 45 seconds I did hear.  So, does it get better or will I only find more inanity as I listen longer?

 
Something in Commish post I was thinking about.  Have you guys noticed a higher level of traffic lately?  I've actually cut it back personally, haven't left the house in awhile.

But I've heard anecdotally that it's very busy out there.

None of the models build in what happens if Americans start taking this less seriously.  But I have a feeling that's what could happen.

As an example, in my area springtime weather has been here for about a week.  I've heard anecdotal reports of it being much busier over the past week.  If true, we should see a spike in cases happen about a week from now. 

Something to consider.  All the models have this really nice-looking curve that goes up and slowly goes down to zero.  Reality is likely to be nothing like this, unless everyone is in their homes.  And that appears to not be happening.

How is it in your area?
Went out yesterday to pick up a ham for Easter. Most non-essential businesses are shuttered around here but every restaurant had a line around the drive thru and every grocery store had a pretty full parking lot. Noticed there was a lot of building going around here that hasn't slowed and traffic was lighter than normal but still a lot heavier than I would expect for a shelter at home state. 

@The Commish sorry to hear about the wife. Hope she is doing better

 
Simulation shows how a cough can spread coronavirus in supermarkets

Does this sound reasonable or is it an exaggeration? 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/simulation-shows-how-a-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-a-store/
When I see the words "aerosol" or "aerosolized", I pretty much summarily reject an article's conclusions. The best they find in aerosols are burst-open viral chunks or loose pieces of viral RNA. I'm open to new evidence, but the bar is very high.

 
Simply want to wish you the best, GB. You're one of the good ones and have always given me a wide berth, which I appreciate. I hope Mrs. Commish beats whatever it is quickly and decisively. 
Thanks GB...same to you.  I remember a time when we weren't the exception.  Maybe we can get back to that one day.

 
Simply want to wish you the best, GB. You're one of the good ones and have always given me a wide berth, which I appreciate. I hope Mrs. Commish beats whatever it is quickly and decisively. 
I don't think I could say it much better, so on all counts - ditto. 

For someone who admittedly doesn't "like people in general", Commish sure doesn't let it pollute the way he interacts with them. Best way I can articulate it is - though we don't always agree, I never cringe at a notification that @The Commish has replied to me. I know I'm getting a reasoned fair response. Glad to hear last night was better for Mrs. Commish. Hopefully it's the start of a full recovery.

 
Something in Commish post I was thinking about.  Have you guys noticed a higher level of traffic lately?  I've actually cut it back personally, haven't left the house in awhile.

But I've heard anecdotally that it's very busy out there ... How is it in your area?
I've run several errands over the last few weeks -- grocery for food, dollar store for paper products, drugstore drive-thru for prescriptions, and the post office twice.

When I went to the grocery on March 14th, 21st, and 28th, it was noticeably slower than a typical Saturday afternoon. Didn't have to think much about active social distancing ... weren't enough people in the stores to worry about it but for a handful of times. When I went to the grocery on April 4th, however ... there were enough of an uptick people in the store that I had to be aware of my immediate surroundings at pretty much all times to maintain social distance. Still not hard to maintain, but I could tell that a lot of people were way less concerned than me.

Mask use has increased markedly over the past few weeks -- from maybe 1 in 10 people the weekend of 3/14-15 to more like 7 in 10 people this past weekend. I wonder if people are just starting to figure "Meh, I'll cover my face so I can go do all my running about like usual." In other words: are the hoi polloi treating "wear masks/face coverings" as a suggestion that replaces "maintain social distance"?

 
NY numbers looking awesome.  We dodged a huge huge bullet.  

This feels like we're inching towards "getting back to normal" much more quickly than anyone could have imagined. 

 
NY numbers looking awesome.  We dodged a huge huge bullet.  

This feels like we're inching towards "getting back to normal" much more quickly than anyone could have imagined. 
The data out of NY is a bit better. If anything that should encourage people to double down on this until May 31st. That's when the IHME model has deaths really flattening. I'm concerned that people will misunderstand what is happening and become more lax. It's actually the opposite. Go hardcore until May 31st, that's 52 days from now. Then start slowly reverse-opening up what was closed last. But we really need the rapid tests, the antibody tests, the plasma based treatments, the other treatments and finally the vaccine to ever get "back to normal". A real plan needs to be devised. Can't just get "back to normal" without one.

 
Mask use has increased markedly over the past few weeks -- from maybe 1 in 10 people the weekend of 3/14-15 to more like 7 in 10 people this past weekend. I wonder if people are just starting to figure "Meh, I'll cover my face so I can go do all my running about like usual." In other words: are the hoi polloi treating "wear masks/face coverings" as a suggestion that replaces "maintain social distance"?
Yeah, agree.

My brother works for a company that distributes medical supplies to hospitals and doctors offices. I talked to him about masks back when this Covid first started appearing.

He basically said it will be worse for people wearing masks because they aren't used to wearing them. They will be adjusting them constantly, which results in their hands and fingers to the face and eyes more and more.

Now, over time as more people wear them, those incidents would go down of course. 

 
I know it's very early and I have zero qualification to say something has peaked or not... But I couldnt be happier with the numbers in Canada to date, and fingers crossed they don't change for the worse.

HIghest death tally was Apr 2 w 59 deaths, followed by 35 and 23, and now a spike again back up to a high of 58 and yesterday down to 46

"Only" 435 deaths reported to date. Population of only 40m, but it is very densely populated in very little of the country. 

Blessings to all. I hope this is over soon for all of us. Starting to eat away at me too, and I couldnt bring myself to look at Canada's numbers for well over a week, as I didnt want to face it.  I've also been trying to avoid this thread as much as possible. Decided today was the day Id check the #s, and it was the first half-smile Ive had on my face in a while. The term "smile" used very, very lightly.

Stay safe and may we all escape unscathed.
Here's hoping! 🤞

I read a lot of positive comments about the CERB application process and how easy they made it for everyone. 3 questions, or something and then a confirmation you'll have money in 3 days.  Nice job by all involved if this is the case.  it's on the honor system too. How Canadian is that! 

 
Sewage study in Massachusetts suggests over 100K are infected and shedding the virus

Just one section of Massachusetts could have more than 100,000 coronavirus cases — many times more than the entire state has identified at this point, according to an MIT-associated study of local sewage.

Biobot Analytics, which is a lab associated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, published research this week that an analysis of sewage from a treatment facility in “a large metropolitan area in the state of Massachusetts” suggested that many more people potentially have the highly contagious disease than tests have confirmed.

“On March 25, the area represented by the sample had approximately 446 confirmed cases of Covid-19,” Biobot researchers wrote Wednesday in a post about their research. “Based on our sewage analysis, we estimate that up to 115,000 people are infected and shedding the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”

 
So lemme get this straight:

A doctor I have never heard of before
She is a verified doctor with over 30 years of experience in filling out death certificates.  Throughout the video she goes into detail about the process doctors take in filling out death certificates, and how that is being impacted by the CDC guidelines related to Covid-19.  Sorry you didn't find the brief portion you listened to helpful, but I appreciate you giving it a cursory listen.

She isn't a celebrity doctor like Brix or Fauci, so I would understand if you hadn't heard of her previously.

 
She is a verified doctor with over 30 years of experience in filling out death certificates.  Throughout the video she goes into detail about the process doctors take in filling out death certificates, and how that is being impacted by the CDC guidelines related to Covid-19.  Sorry you didn't find the brief portion you listened to helpful, but I appreciate you giving it a cursory listen.

She isn't a celebrity doctor like Brix or Fauci, so I would understand if you hadn't heard of her previously.
Am just calling it like I see it.  I appreciated and thanked you for posting the earlier article refuting the ABC News (?) reporting that this virus began in November.  I realize she is a doctor and I realize doctors have wide latitude in assigning cause of death, but it is a VERY long leap from there to: all these doctors are wrongly attributing this to Covid because 1) they can and 2) I can't find any facebook friends in Montana who know someone impacted.

Hope you see WHY I felt the need to respond as I did.  We ALL have to be skeptical of things that challenge our pre-conceived notions and more open to things that challenge them.  That's why I was open to watching a few minutes

 
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Something in Commish post I was thinking about.  Have you guys noticed a higher level of traffic lately?  I've actually cut it back personally, haven't left the house in awhile.

But I've heard anecdotally that it's very busy out there.

None of the models build in what happens if Americans start taking this less seriously.  But I have a feeling that's what could happen.

As an example, in my area springtime weather has been here for about a week.  I've heard anecdotal reports of it being much busier over the past week.  If true, we should see a spike in cases happen about a week from now. 

Something to consider.  All the models have this really nice-looking curve that goes up and slowly goes down to zero.  Reality is likely to be nothing like this, unless everyone is in their homes.  And that appears to not be happening.

How is it in your area?
Traffic might be an indicator that something is off, but it might not be the best indicator. If a guy is taking a ride alone in his car, chances of being exposed, or exposing others is very limited. If he on the other hands drives to a destination, does something, and then goes home, the the equation changes. It may still not be super bad, if there is plenty of distance to other people. Going stir crazy is a real possibility and a drive may alleviate that somewhat. 

 
I'd buy it....to the point that, when I'm in the store, I don't go down an isle with others in it.  I wait for it to clear.  If it's taking forever, then I'll go down an isle if there's another person there.  Once I am done with the shopping, I go to my truck, open the door, load the groceries, sanitize my hands.  Come home unload the groceries in the garage and throw the bags away...sanitize my hands, then go about putting it all away.  That STILL leaves me open to touching a product that someone with the virus has touched in the store.  This is why I'm one of those crazy people who dig to the back of the products to get ones at the back and even that STILL leaves me open to a stocker that might have the virus.  It really is best to just stay home.  I bought enough food for two weeks this time around instead of just one week.  The less I am in the store the better.
FWIW I remember reading the other day that CDC is unaware of anyone being infected by touching a contaminated surface. 

 
The data out of NY is a bit better. If anything that should encourage people to double down on this until May 31st. That's when the IHME model has deaths really flattening. I'm concerned that people will misunderstand what is happening and become more lax. It's actually the opposite. Go hardcore until May 31st, that's 52 days from now. Then start slowly reverse-opening up what was closed last. But we really need the rapid tests, the antibody tests, the plasma based treatments, the other treatments and finally the vaccine to ever get "back to normal". A real plan needs to be devised. Can't just get "back to normal" without one.
Outside of this thread, I don't see people thinking this way.  

 

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