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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (26 Viewers)

What is the realistic timeline for this? Barely hear about it. 
Not sure, but I’d guess sometime in the next month or so. Rapid (< 1 hour) testing for acute infection is just scaling up, but there are limited reagents to perform the assays. I’ve not heard as much about rapid antibody tests for exposure/resolved infection.

 
@Terminalxylem not sure if they would ship to you, but I saw this pop up today. 

Seems they are still available and says specifically for medical workers or first responders. They are p95 which as we discussed are better than n95
Thanks. Through a combination of donations, mask sterilization and curtailing new cases, our hospital is back on track with PPE.

 
Not sure if serious, but I could see how it could be approached.  You measure amount of fecal matter in sewage to try and determine population.  Then try to asses how much CV is in the sewage and draw proportionate conclusions.

I have no idea if Im on the mark or in a different solar system, but it sounds like a novel, and out of the box, way of thinking about it.
Maybe, but there is likely variability is fecal shedding of the virus, regularity and volume of bowel movements, degradation of the viral material over time, dilution due to rain, etc. making the calculation problematic at best.

 
Yapping?  Bruh, we have a drug that cures this disease!  You didn't see that?  Hydroxicodroxiodine has eradicated the virus in 129% of all patients, but the liberal media is refusing to inform us about that because they want to sabotage the economy.  Nancy Pelosi owns the largest stockpile of this drug but won't grant access to it because she hates America.

It's so obvious!  Do you guys not watch this?  
Saying those that want to save lives really just want to sabotage the economy is as bad as saying those that want to save the economy just want to see people die. 

I would get banned if I claimed those that want to save the economy just want to see people die. Saying people just want to sabotage the economy should be banned as well.

 
Saying those that want to save lives really just want to sabotage the economy is as bad as saying those that want to save the economy just want to see people die. 

I would get banned if I claimed those that want to save the economy just want to see people die. Saying people just want to sabotage the economy should be banned as well.
I don't think anybody here was saying it, though. He's talking about Fox News, Politician Spock. Not a poster here. 

 
Can someone help me out with this? If people don't get this from contaminated surfaces, then what is the washing your hands as a way to combat this all about? I really am completely confused by the recommendations and official messages about how this virus spreads. 
I'd guess you can get droplets on your hands when walking about if some one coughed, your hands can move droplets to your eyes etc

 
Also, the U.S. represents only 4.5% of the world’s population, yet has 29% of the world’s cases.  Something’s funky.
The answer to that could be political.

That said there are doubts about the numbers in China (1.3 bn people). India has tested 177,000 of their 1.2 billion so they can't have a handle on what is going on. That's one third of the world, right there. 

 
It's a reasonable question and one that needs answers.

Many times, where I live at least in the deep south, African Americans here have large numbers of folks living in poverty.  With poverty comes a lot of other things related to poorer health.  At least in my area it's hypertension, diabetes, and obesity.  Heart disease isn't too far behind.

I'd be curious how white folks in the same economic strata fare compared to their african american countrymen.  Is it a racial thing?  Is it poverty related?  Is it stress?  Is it genetic?

I've worked in healthcare and for quite some time it's widely known that african americans in our southernmost communities suffer from worse health outcomes.  Miscarriages are a good example with them happening at higher rates for african americans than white women.

Just a lot of things we don't fully understand, but do have enough data to say that in general, health outcomes for the poor and for african americans are generally worse, and when those two things are combined, like they are in high numbers in the south, it's a recipe for poor health outcomes in high volumes.  
This would make for a great Freakeconomics type book after this is past us.

The problem is that nobody, at least that I’ve heard, has offered a workable plan to accomplish this. 
No and there won’t be. We didn’t have much of a plan going in and we won’t have much of one going out but it will happen sooner than later.

There's no such thing as a "workable" plan. Every scenario will result in more death and a taller curve.

But if we're still locked down by summertime, there is going to be a massive push -- from the public, from the business world, and from others -- to restart the economy whether we're ready or not. "The cure can't be worse than the problem" will become a dominant talking point.

And, I think by that point we'll have enough data to justify "business as usual" for the vast majority of people under the age of 50.

People who are over 50 and/or at-risk (due to health) will still be advised to shelter-in-place.......but the rest of us will be told to go spend, spend, spend.
The bolded is about the best we’re going. Certainly we will have compiled a much larger database to draw conclusions from and from what I’m seeing, and this is just me playing armchair QB, there will probably be a couple groups of people that will be targeted:

1. Those over a certain age, let’s say 65 but pick a number. I’m guessing the data is showing folks over that age skew higher for hospitalization and the possibility of ICU.

2. People with pre-existing conditions. Any age group but you have to have something that has jeopardized your system and probably the biggest factor in America right now is obesity. Aside from the Ran A 10k guys, we’re pretty much all fat but it’s not exclusively that. My nephew is 5 and has Type 2 diabetes, he would fall into this category. Age doesn’t play as much of a factor in this group unless you are over 65 AND have a pre-existing condition.

So those groups of people will have some criteria associated with them to be out in public to make them less susceptible until a vaccine is developed. The rest of us? Head back to work and get after it with a better personal hygiene routine coupled with a social distancing awareness we didn’t have in February 2020. If I was a betting man, I’d invest heavy in any company related to fitness equipment/activity because there is going to be a huge rush on “don’t be fat & catch the ‘rona” advertising very soon. I’d also sell any cruise line stock I have as soon as it starts to even smell like a recovery.

 
India has tested 177,000 out of 1.2 billion...
Remember when this really kicked off here and our testing numbers were abysmally low compared to total population? Sound familiar? The difference is we have arguably the best health care facilities in the world and most people don’t live in abject poverty. I think the US is turning the tide to avoid a disaster, not sure India can do that. You have to think that country is rife with the virus. I think Fauci said yesterday, the virus was here in February brought to us from China and Europe, we just didn’t know it. I can’t see India not have the same experience right now.

 
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This would make for a great Freakeconomics type book after this is past us.

No and there won’t be. We didn’t have much of a plan going in and we won’t have much of one going out but it will happen sooner than later.

The bolded is about the best we’re going. Certainly we will have compiled a much larger database to draw conclusions from and from what I’m seeing, and this is just me playing armchair QB, there will probably be a couple groups of people that will be targeted:

1. Those over a certain age, let’s say 65 but pick a number. I’m guessing the data is showing folks over that age skew higher for hospitalization and the possibility of ICU.

2. People with pre-existing conditions. Any age group but you have to have something that has jeopardized your system and probably the biggest factor in America right now is obesity. Aside from the Ran A 10k guys, we’re pretty much all fat but it’s not exclusively that. My nephew is 5 and has Type 2 diabetes, he would fall into this category. Age doesn’t play as much of a factor in this group unless you are over 65 AND have a pre-existing condition.

So those groups of people will have some criteria associated with them to be out in public to make them less susceptible until a vaccine is developed. The rest of us? Head back to work and get after it with a better personal hygiene routine coupled with a social distancing awareness we didn’t have in February 2020. If I was a betting man, I’d invest heavy in any company related to fitness equipment/activity because there is going to be a huge rush on “don’t be fat & catch the ‘rona” advertising very soon. I’d also sell any cruise line stock I have as soon as it starts to even smell like a recovery.
From my post 300 pages ago:

In the US, ~45% of adults have hypertension, 10% have diabetes + 20% prediabetes, and ~20% are age 60 and older. Also not factored into the equation: 2/3 of us are overweight or obese
And 24% of the population is under 18. While many of those risk factors overlap, the percentage of the adult population without any risk factors isn't great. Can we restart society with only ~20% of adults?

 
From my post 300 pages ago:

And 24% of the population is under 18. While many of those risk factors overlap, the percentage of the adult population without any risk factors isn't great. Can we restart society with only ~20% of adults?
We dont know what level of hypertension. I highly doubt the people dying are commonly in the 131/80 category. And that is how low we need to go to get to 45%. 

Unfortunately we have to beg and plead to get any data. 

 
The new report (3/5/14) changes the former blood pressure definitions to: Normal - less than 120/less than 80 mm Hg; Prehypertension - 120-139/80-89 mm Hg; Stage 1 hypertension - 140-159/90-99 mm Hg; Stage 2 hypertension - > 160/100 mm Hg.

 
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Isn't that prehypertension?
To get the 45% figure you have to move the threshold to 130/80. 

From CDC.

Nearly half of adults in the United States (108 million, or 45%) have hypertension defined as a systolic blood pressure ≥ 130 mm Hg or a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 80 mm Hg or are taking medication for hypertension.3

 
Can someone help me out with this? If people don't get this from contaminated surfaces, then what is the washing your hands as a way to combat this all about? I really am completely confused by the recommendations and official messages about how this virus spreads. 
Germany traced the infection of patient zero to patient one via passing a salt shaker in the company canteen.

 
Not sure, but I’d guess sometime in the next month or so. Rapid (< 1 hour) testing for acute infection is just scaling up, but there are limited reagents to perform the assays. I’ve not heard as much about rapid antibody tests for exposure/resolved infection.
we rolled it out yesterday- today was he first real day of getting results <1 hr. Cleaned up our admission process a lot for pt’s coming in theu ER. we aren’t admitting everyone as rule-out COVID anymore

 
Why don't they just combine the vaccines for A & B into one to cover all the bases?  I am completely dumb when it comes to all of this, so just wondering.
I'm sure if they could they would
So far as I know, the annual flu vaccine IS a multi-strain vaccine. But as Nathan Jessep pointed out last night, there are many more than two strains. Plus, strains of the flu change frequently. More reading below ( look under ‘Manufacturing ‘):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine

 
Two things to be wary of

1) there are 63,000 active cases in  Germany now and the death rate is trending up. This may increase the CFR 

2) From the article 
Would add that the CFR in Germany is just over 2%.  This would imply that the country arguably doing the best contact tracing has let 80% of the infected slip thru the cracks.

 
Saying those that want to save lives really just want to sabotage the economy is as bad as saying those that want to save the economy just want to see people die. 

I would get banned if I claimed those that want to save the economy just want to see people die. Saying people just want to sabotage the economy should be banned as well.
Your sarcasm detector needs recalibrating.

 
As I’ve related in here, I have tried to be as generous as possible with regard to offering free rent and half rent for small business tenants- and they generally seem grateful. 

But at this point several of the chain tenants- and I’m referring to businesses with 20 or more locations- are simply taking advantage. First off they’re not asking for free rent; they’re simply refusing to pay. I’m getting emails and letters like this one: 

Due to the coronavirus we have decided not to pay you rent for April. We will inform you when we are able to pay rent again. 

No negotiating at all. They know that I can’t take them to court, and even if I could, what am I going to do with an empty space? Still, the refusal to even ask will be remembered. 

I’d also feel a little sympathy if they were using the money saved to pay employees who aren’t working. But that’s not happening either, at least anecdotally; they’re either laying people off or putting them on furlough. And because Congress in the bill just passed defined a small business as 500 employees or less, they’re collecting government funds at the same time. 
We are a country of greedy ####ers. 

 
As I’ve related in here, I have tried to be as generous as possible with regard to offering free rent and half rent for small business tenants- and they generally seem grateful. 

But at this point several of the chain tenants- and I’m referring to businesses with 20 or more locations- are simply taking advantage. First off they’re not asking for free rent; they’re simply refusing to pay. I’m getting emails and letters like this one: 

Due to the coronavirus we have decided not to pay you rent for April. We will inform you when we are able to pay rent again. 

No negotiating at all. They know that I can’t take them to court, and even if I could, what am I going to do with an empty space? Still, the refusal to even ask will be remembered. 

I’d also feel a little sympathy if they were using the money saved to pay employees who aren’t working. But that’s not happening either, at least anecdotally; they’re either laying people off or putting them on furlough. And because Congress in the bill just passed defined a small business as 500 employees or less, they’re collecting government funds at the same time. 
We are a country of greedy ####ers. 
Just like forbearance, I'd demand all the back rent from those chains. I would respond to them as such that they are allowed to delay their rent payments but are expected to pay the full amount owed.

an agreement called "forbearance." According to this agreement, the lender delays its right to exercise foreclosure if the borrower can catch up to its payment schedule by a certain time.

 
How could they rule out either the two hands touching during the passing or anything being transferred through a small cough, etc?
They talked to both parties.  Apparently they were sitting at different tables with their backs to each other and one asked for a saltshaker from the other table.

 
My company had just completed the budgetary process for the upcoming year in February (our year end is April 30). Because of the massive upheaval to the rental industry we’ve basically scrapped that budget and will revisit at a later date. Over 700 locations and pfffft, out the window. I’d hate to be the accountants on this years audit.
Non-profits getting slammed hard.  My daughter works for the national call center of the Alzheimer's Association.  They're facing a multi-million dollar shortfall.  CEO and other execs are cutting their salaries, and quite a number of staff are being let go or at least furloughed.  (Daughter's area has been reduced by 28 and counting; she's held on and been assigned new hours.)

 
Maybe, but there is likely variability is fecal shedding of the virus, regularity and volume of bowel movements, degradation of the viral material over time, dilution due to rain, etc. making the calculation problematic at best.
I wouldnt think poop weighing is an exact science.  Frankly, estimation is not an exact science ever.

  1. How many fish are in the lake?

    Lets pull them all out
  2. Then count them
  3. EXACT SCIENCE
  4. Dead fish
  5. sad face

 
From my post 300 pages ago:

And 24% of the population is under 18. While many of those risk factors overlap, the percentage of the adult population without any risk factors isn't great. Can we restart society with only ~20% of adults?
2/3 of my office is over 50. Fortunately we have the ability to work from home, but if that weren’t the case our office wouldn’t be able to function.

Considering that a significant percentage of managers and supervisors throughout the economy will fall into the high risk group, simply having a group of healthy, young bodies show up won’t be enough to restart many businesses.

 
2/3 of my office is over 50. Fortunately we have the ability to work from home, but if that weren’t the case our office wouldn’t be able to function.

Considering that a significant percentage of managers and supervisors throughout the economy will fall into the high risk group, simply having a group of healthy, young bodies show up won’t be enough to restart many businesses.
Probably not true. 

 
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Probably not true. 
:rolleyes:  My link

Considering that being placed in a managerial position requires a certain amount of experience and that as workers get older they tend to rise to positions of increasing power or skill, it is absolutely true that a significant portion of managers will be over 50 and/or have health issues.

 
Honestly having been to Germany and working with Germans daily, I believe this 100%. They are a different breed. 
Their numbers match up with ours almost identically in the early going. It's not dumb luck that ours have spiraled out of control while theirs have been pretty well contained.

 
There has been some discussion about whether the death count is overstated or understated. At least in the UK, the death count only includes deaths occurring at a hospital. Maybe everybody here already assumed that to to be the case, but I found it interesting. 

link 
My thought is all over the place deaths are understated.  Too many people in every country at every level of government are too invested in the numbers being lower IMO.

 
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Thanks for posting. I guess I don't understand the "we can never do this, we're Americans!" argument against what it's going to take via testing and surveillance. If that's what we have to do, then that's what we do. When the alternative is millions of deaths or indefinite stay at home orders, it's baffling that people are like "I just can't see us doing this". F that! Download the app and ramp up the tests. Let's do this. 

 
Also, the U.S. represents only 4.5% of the world’s population, yet has 29% of the world’s cases.  Something’s funky.
We're being told that we're doing more testing than anywhere else in the world.  Makes sense that more tests = more "provable" cases

 

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