What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)

TheIronSheik said:
These distinctions are dumb.  I'm classified as on the borderline of Overweight and Obese.  And I look good.  In the aughts, when I was having fun with drugs, I got down to 10 over my ideal weight and I looked like a crackhead.  
Click to expand...
They aren’t dumb. They correlate with risk for a number of chronic medical conditions, and mortality at the extremes. And before ten people chime in about body builders and professional athletes with high BMIs, realize BMI underestimates excess body fat far more often than it overestimates it.

Unfortunately, your opinion of cracky vs. svelte Sheik has no bearing on your health.

 
Capella said:
Not sure if it was this thread or the stock thread but shoutout to @fantasycurse42 for his theory that trump put pence in front of this to be the fall guy and then to replace him later this year. That is absolutely brilliant and if it ends up being true I’ll have no choice but to respect Trump’s Makavelian ways at least a little bit. 
Click to expand...
No doubt about it. Easy scapegoat.

 
shader said:
I hope your friend is right, but there’s no data to suggest that’s likely to be true. It’s literally impossible for someone to come up with those numbers using any data that’s out there. But hopefully their gut feeling will turn out to be accurate.
Click to expand...
This is not true. 

South Korea: 2022 cases, 10 serious/critical, 13 deaths. That is a seriously low serious/critical rate, not to mention death rate

 
Recovered patients, who retested positive for Covid-19, found not to be infectious

Recovered coronavirus patients who were discharged from hospitalization but later tested positive again have been found not to be infectious, an official at China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said on Friday.

Guo Yanhong, a hospital administration official at the NHC, told reporters at a daily press conference that there is a need to deepen the understanding of the novel virus and improve health tracking and management of recovered coronavirus patients.
Click to expand...

 
Doug B said:
No, not thinking about the immediate term with procuring food and supplies.

Looking down the road some distance. Thinking about the potential absence of a societal “all clear” — the proposition that some level of COVID infection in the population is now a permanent condition to which humanity has to adapt.

It might make more sense if I make clear that I don’t believe a vaccine is coming. The track record of vaccine development for coronaviruses has been especially discouraging. I do believe that antivirals show promise — a Tamiflu for COVID can happen. Just not sure if it will be before COVID has run a several-year course through billions of people.
Click to expand...
Outside of HIV and hepatitis C treatments, our track record for antivirals ain’t great. Tamiflu shortens flu symptoms a day or so, but only if initiated in the first couple days of symptoms. It is less clear if it prevents or treats severe influenza or its complications. Drugs for herpes and shingles are similar. With that in mind, I’ll be shocked if an antiviral “cure” for COVID-19 is rapidly developed. That includes the nonspecific immunomodulator oft-mentioned in this thread.

A vaccine is definitely the long term answer, but R&D will take months-years at best. And as you mention, coronavirus vaccines have proven elusive with SARS and MERS.

For comparison purposes, the first antiviral drug for HIV was introduced about 5 years after the virus was identified. It took another 11 years to develop highly effective combination antiviral therapy. And there still isn’t an effective vaccine. Granted, HIV is a bit more complex infection, but there is no precedent for curing any viral infection quickly.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Outside of HIV and hepatitis C treatments, our track record for antivirals ain’t great. Tamiflu shortens flu symptoms a day or so, but only if initiated in the first couple days of symptoms. It is less clear if it prevents or treats severe influenza or its complications. Drugs for herpes and shingles are similar. With that in mind, I’ll be shocked if an antiviral “cure” for COVID-19 is rapidly developed. That includes the nonspecific immunomodulator oft-mentioned in this thread.

A vaccine is definitely the long term answer, but R&D will take months-years at best. And as you mention, coronavirus vaccines have proven elusive with SARS and MERS.
Click to expand...
I had my annual physical last week and my doctor advised that i may want to look into getting a shingles shot. The problem he said is that his office didn't have any since the vaccine is in short supply and not all insurance companies cover it.

Just a couple more hurdles to overcome if a vaccine was found tomorrow. 

 
JaxBill said:
I had my annual physical last week and my doctor advised that i may want to look into getting a shingles shot. The problem he said is that his office didn't have any since the vaccine is in short supply and not all insurance companies cover it.

Just a couple more hurdles to overcome if a vaccine was found tomorrow. 
Click to expand...
Yep. And tons of meds are in short supply, including antibiotics. Wanna guess where most of our medications are manufactured?

 
Judge Smails said:
Ours is on in Orlando but handshake free. Encouraging elbow taps. Masks available for all who want them. Medical grade. Sanitizer everywhere, everything wiped down daily. Refunds for those registered from Asia, Italy etc
Click to expand...
My firm has an annual partner retreat set for next week. Hundreds of folks coming from around the world, though they just uninvited folks from our locations in Asia. Other firms are canceling similar retreats outright. I’m wondering if the same may happen for us last minute. Sounds like it’d be a pretty expensive cancellation proposition given all the cost and hard work and planning that has gone into it to this point. 

 
[icon] said:
Standard Flu: 0.015% (14.3 per 100k) 

COVID-19: 2.5% (in above scenario) 

Assuming 60% of Americans get it (bold assumption by Harvard guy) then deaths would be: 

Joe Flu: 27,000 Dead 

COVID19: 3.6 Million Dead 
 

Good point, GB. I didn't realize they WERE Pretty much the same thing. 

Not sure what I was thinking. :lol:  
Click to expand...
Ok let me just stop beating around the bush here:

There are lots of people in the world. So many—perhaps the majority—are stupid and terrible. We could stand to shed 3.5 mil. 
 

Slap it high?

 
I will say this: I’m just happy the new leather sofa we ordered from Restoration Hardware is finally being delivered today, even if just a couple weeks late. 
 

#firstworldpandemicproblems 

 
This is gonna be a pandemic. The only thing keeping numbers low around the globe right now is lack of testing.

I’d happily self-quarantine for 2 weeks if everyone else in the world would too. if you’re sick during this time, go to the hospital. This would be the quickest easiest way to stop the spread and get back to normal life. It only takes everyone two weeks. Obviously this isn’t going to happen and I’m pretty sure life is going to see a major disruption shortly.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Outside of HIV and hepatitis C treatments, our track record for antivirals ain’t great. Tamiflu shortens flu symptoms a day or so, but only if initiated in the first couple days of symptoms. It is less clear if it prevents or treats severe influenza or its complications. Drugs for herpes and shingles are similar. With that in mind, I’ll be shocked if an antiviral “cure” for COVID-19 is rapidly developed. That includes the nonspecific immunomodulator oft-mentioned in this thread.

A vaccine is definitely the long term answer, but R&D will take months-years at best. And as you mention, coronavirus vaccines have proven elusive with SARS and MERS.

For comparison purposes, the first antiviral drug for HIV was introduced about 5 years after the virus was identified. It took another 11 years to develop highly effective combination antiviral therapy. And there still isn’t an effective vaccine. Granted, HIV is a bit more complex infection, but there is no precedent for curing any viral infection quickly.
Click to expand...
The media has anointed Gilead's Remdesivir as the leading candidate to treat COVID-19 but it had limited success against SARS and Ebola so I don't think they will have more success here.  

 
Otis said:
Ok let me just stop beating around the bush here:

There are lots of people in the world. So many—perhaps the majority—are stupid and terrible. We could stand to shed 3.5 mil. 
 

Slap it high?
Click to expand...
I don't disagree that there are a bunch of ####ty people out there. Unfortunately disease USUALLY doesn't discriminate. 

So are your parents and your wife's parents stupid and terrible? 

I guess you're good with them being in the mix for the ~15% death rate as a trade off for your random culling of the herd? 

Sorry GB but your stance is poorly educated (based on data), a bit heartless, and selfish. We could use a few less people on earth... definitely a few less #######s... but not like this. 
 

I respect the dedication to the condescending nerds shtick over the years. You were at the forefront of the style and are the master. It's almost always a good laugh. Just a little less so right now. I still love ya tho! Keep Being Big O :)  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Otis said:
My firm has an annual partner retreat set for next week. Hundreds of folks coming from around the world, though they just uninvited folks from our locations in Asia. Other firms are canceling similar retreats outright. I’m wondering if the same may happen for us last minute. Sounds like it’d be a pretty expensive cancellation proposition given all the cost and hard work and planning that has gone into it to this point. 
Click to expand...
They should probably uninvite folks that have been to Italy lately as well

 
Unconfirmed report from NYC... long but spooky and if true illustrates the problem with our head in the sand approach to testing, and why we might be about to see thousands of cases surface in the states. 
 

"I work for an international broadcast design agency in NYC, New York

I work for an international broadcast design agency in NYC, New York, which travels all over the globe pretty often. Most recently our company was in Seoul, South Korea. I wasn't selected for the trip however I work very closely with those who went. At the time there was about a dozen known cases. Upon arrival the venue was empty, no public allowed in the event, everyone was required to wear masks, and the only people aloud into the venue was staff and players. Our team spent 2 weeks there and returned just days before the outbreak got out of hand there.

My co-workers returned to the office. One member immediately took a flight to Los Angeles, the others remained in the office with me and they all seemed healthy. Still do. A week after they returned I started feeling a little sick. Nothing serious, just fatigued, with a bit of chest congestion. This went on for a week or so, each day feeling progressively worse than the last, my fatigue at this point was so severe I could barely walk to the train station which is just across the street from my apartment building.

A week ago traveling into work on the train I was suddenly hit with the most alarming cold sweat I have ever experienced in my life. Almost immediately I wasn't able to breathe, not from a panic attack, but from my lungs not being physically able to process oxygen. It was a terrifying experience. Luckily my fiancé was with me and I was able to keep my breathing shallow and myself calm until I reached Penn Station where things started to level off. I immediately took the next train back home and went to my physician.

I explained to my physician how I have been feeling, what I had just experienced, and the back story and my concern with my co-workers being in Seoul just a few week or so prior. I wasn't running a fever and showed no symptoms of flu other than my congestion and fatigue. He gave me a flu test anyway, which returned negative. He explained he couldn't test for COVID on which I told him I knew, but asked if I had any pains in my calf. Surprisingly I did, but had figured it was due to me slipping pulling something. I explained to him it wasn't a large pain but he then insisted it actually might be a pulmonary embolism and possibly a blood clot making its way to my lungs. He called ahead and I went to the ER.

I explained the situation again, in full detail, to the staff at the hospital. The nurse that checked me in gave me a mask just in case, but no one else seemed interested or worried about the possibility. The PA asked a few qualifying questions. The big ones. Have I traveled to Wuhan, China? Close to anyone who has? In which I replied no, but followed up again with co-workers returning from South Korea. She didn't seem to care. I explained to her, whether it's a respiratory infection, or a pulmonary embolism I just want to find out what is going on.

Over the next few hrs the staff checked my vitals, tested my blood, gave me imaging, and a d-dimer test to check for clotting. In which the test came back negative. I thought for sure once they ruled out the possibility of an embolism they would focus on the respiratory infection given the history I had told them, but they didn't, I was told the imaging didn't return anything significant, so it's probably some virus kicking my ###, and I was sent home with a prescription for a corticosteroid and an inhaler. I was released too late to pick up the prescription, and that night my breathing got exponentially worse, and for the next week I couldn’t get out of bed.

I didn't realize it at the time but corticosteroids decreases your immune system's response to various diseases, so on top already having an incident, being told it is probably some virus kicking my ###, the hospital knowing about where I work and my work history, decided to let me leave knowingly, and without informing me, that I would be walking around with a compromised immune system. I couldn't help but wonder whether others are being prescribed corticosteroids under similar circumstances and if so, drastically increasing the risk of catching infection, esp COVID.

Yesterday was my last day on the corticosteroids and today I feel I may be starting to relapse. My voice sounds like I have laryngitis again. I'm still fatigued, but haven’t left the house or done any strenuous activity to know whether my breathing is normal. I figured this could be my body's response as it adjusts to not being on the steroids anymore, but I'm unsure. My fiancé is worried again, and I'm growing increasingly more concerned by the day for a couple reasons. Yes, I'm worried of the possibility of having the disease without the ability to get tested, but I'm equally as concerned of carrying and possibly spreading it to others.

Our plan is to consult my physician again tomorrow morning. I don't plan on returning to work until Monday providing everything checks out. However, it all seems a bit hopeless at the moment given they aren't willing to test me regardless. Perhaps I should walk into the hospital wearing a Diamond Princess, or I heart Wuhan t-shirt, that might be enough to get their attention. However, just sharing my story with whomever might read this is therapeutic. I hope it provides a bit of perspective and caution. Maybe I'll do an update but I'm not sure if anyone will even read this. Either way, if you are reading this, I wish you good health during these uncertain times."

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Otis said:
I will say this: I’m just happy the new leather sofa we ordered from Restoration Hardware is finally being delivered today, even if just a couple weeks late. 
 

#firstworldpandemicproblems 
Click to expand...
Make sure to wipe it down with your disinfecting wipes before you touch it...

 
Terminalxylem said:
Yep. And tons of meds are in short supply, including antibiotics. Wanna guess where most of our medications are manufactured?
Click to expand...
Fish antibiotics are an oddly good resource for those wanting to keep a course or two of specific meds on hand. A few brands are known to be the same pills as their human counterparts (pills are indistinguishable). 

Sounds Bizarre but for some folks without insurance, a trip to pet smart can have them covered for $20 vs what is likely much more from the pharmacy.

Not my jam, just sharing what I've read. Makes sense.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
[icon] said:
Fish antibiotics are an oddly good resource for those wanting to keep a course or two of specific meds on hand. A few brands are known to be the same pills as their human counterparts (pills are indistinguishable). 

Sounds Bizarre but for some folks without insurance, a trip to pet smart can have them covered for $20 vs what is likely much more from the pharmacy. 
Click to expand...
That sounds like a recipe for getting bacteria resistent to antibiotics. I'll not make a political comment about health care at this point, since we are in the wrong forum.

 
Mr. Ham said:
FWIW, got firsthand knowledge from the guy who isolated SARS for major pharma co. He said he doesn’t know. Virus could “slow down drastically” in the next month, or “become a major pandemic.” It doesn’t mean things will be worse or better than your guy said. If the guy I’m referencing doesn’t know, then there are just a whole lot of probabilities at this point.
Click to expand...
Agree that everyone is making informed guesses at this point.

Mine is that we'll have a worldwide pandemic.  And roughly 1/150 people infected will die.  Mostly people who are old or sick already. 

 
[icon] said:
Unconfirmed report from NYC... long but spooky and if true illustrates the problem with our head in the sand approach to testing, and why we might be about to see thousands of cases surface in the states. 
 

"I work for an international broadcast design agency in NYC, New York

I work for an international broadcast design agency in NYC, New York, which travels all over the globe pretty often. Most recently our company was in Seoul, South Korea. I wasn't selected for the trip however I work very closely with those who went. At the time there was about a dozen known cases. Upon arrival the venue was empty, no public allowed in the event, everyone was required to wear masks, and the only people aloud into the venue was staff and players. Our team spent 2 weeks there and returned just days before the outbreak got out of hand there.

My co-workers returned to the office. One member immediately took a flight to Los Angeles, the others remained in the office with me and they all seemed healthy. Still do. A week after they returned I started feeling a little sick. Nothing serious, just fatigued, with a bit of chest congestion. This went on for a week or so, each day feeling progressively worse than the last, my fatigue at this point was so severe I could barely walk to the train station which is just across the street from my apartment building.

A week ago traveling into work on the train I was suddenly hit with the most alarming cold sweat I have ever experienced in my life. Almost immediately I wasn't able to breathe, not from a panic attack, but from my lungs not being physically able to process oxygen. It was a terrifying experience. Luckily my fiancé was with me and I was able to keep my breathing shallow and myself calm until I reached Penn Station where things started to level off. I immediately took the next train back home and went to my physician.

I explained to my physician how I have been feeling, what I had just experienced, and the back story and my concern with my co-workers being in Seoul just a few week or so prior. I wasn't running a fever and showed no symptoms of flu other than my congestion and fatigue. He gave me a flu test anyway, which returned negative. He explained he couldn't test for COVID on which I told him I knew, but asked if I had any pains in my calf. Surprisingly I did, but had figured it was due to me slipping pulling something. I explained to him it wasn't a large pain but he then insisted it actually might be a pulmonary embolism and possibly a blood clot making its way to my lungs. He called ahead and I went to the ER.

I explained the situation again, in full detail, to the staff at the hospital. The nurse that checked me in gave me a mask just in case, but no one else seemed interested or worried about the possibility. The PA asked a few qualifying questions. The big ones. Have I traveled to Wuhan, China? Close to anyone who has? In which I replied no, but followed up again with co-workers returning from South Korea. She didn't seem to care. I explained to her, whether it's a respiratory infection, or a pulmonary embolism I just want to find out what is going on.

Over the next few hrs the staff checked my vitals, tested my blood, gave me imaging, and a d-dimer test to check for clotting. In which the test came back negative. I thought for sure once they ruled out the possibility of an embolism they would focus on the respiratory infection given the history I had told them, but they didn't, I was told the imaging didn't return anything significant, so it's probably some virus kicking my ###, and I was sent home with a prescription for a corticosteroid and an inhaler. I was released too late to pick up the prescription, and that night my breathing got exponentially worse, and for the next week I couldn’t get out of bed.

I didn't realize it at the time but corticosteroids decreases your immune system's response to various diseases, so on top already having an incident, being told it is probably some virus kicking my ###, the hospital knowing about where I work and my work history, decided to let me leave knowingly, and without informing me, that I would be walking around with a compromised immune system. I couldn't help but wonder whether others are being prescribed corticosteroids under similar circumstances and if so, drastically increasing the risk of catching infection, esp COVID.

Yesterday was my last day on the corticosteroids and today I feel I may be starting to relapse. My voice sounds like I have laryngitis again. I'm still fatigued, but haven’t left the house or done any strenuous activity to know whether my breathing is normal. I figured this could be my body's response as it adjusts to not being on the steroids anymore, but I'm unsure. My fiancé is worried again, and I'm growing increasingly more concerned by the day for a couple reasons. Yes, I'm worried of the possibility of having the disease without the ability to get tested, but I'm equally as concerned of carrying and possibly spreading it to others.

Our plan is to consult my physician again tomorrow morning. I don't plan on returning to work until Monday providing everything checks out. However, it all seems a bit hopeless at the moment given they aren't willing to test me regardless. Perhaps I should walk into the hospital wearing a Diamond Princess, or I heart Wuhan t-shirt, that might be enough to get their attention. However, just sharing my story with whomever might read this is therapeutic. I hope it provides a bit of perspective and caution. Maybe I'll do an update but I'm not sure if anyone will even read this. Either way, if you are reading this, I wish you good health during these uncertain times."
Click to expand...
What color mask are you wearing right now?

 
[icon] said:
Unconfirmed report from NYC... long but spooky and if true illustrates the problem with our head in the sand approach to testing, and why we might be about to see thousands of cases surface in the states. 
 

"I work for an international broadcast design agency in NYC, New York

I work for an international broadcast design agency in NYC, New York, which travels all over the globe pretty often. Most recently our company was in Seoul, South Korea. I wasn't selected for the trip however I work very closely with those who went. At the time there was about a dozen known cases. Upon arrival the venue was empty, no public allowed in the event, everyone was required to wear masks, and the only people aloud into the venue was staff and players. Our team spent 2 weeks there and returned just days before the outbreak got out of hand there.

My co-workers returned to the office. One member immediately took a flight to Los Angeles, the others remained in the office with me and they all seemed healthy. Still do. A week after they returned I started feeling a little sick. Nothing serious, just fatigued, with a bit of chest congestion. This went on for a week or so, each day feeling progressively worse than the last, my fatigue at this point was so severe I could barely walk to the train station which is just across the street from my apartment building.

A week ago traveling into work on the train I was suddenly hit with the most alarming cold sweat I have ever experienced in my life. Almost immediately I wasn't able to breathe, not from a panic attack, but from my lungs not being physically able to process oxygen. It was a terrifying experience. Luckily my fiancé was with me and I was able to keep my breathing shallow and myself calm until I reached Penn Station where things started to level off. I immediately took the next train back home and went to my physician.

I explained to my physician how I have been feeling, what I had just experienced, and the back story and my concern with my co-workers being in Seoul just a few week or so prior. I wasn't running a fever and showed no symptoms of flu other than my congestion and fatigue. He gave me a flu test anyway, which returned negative. He explained he couldn't test for COVID on which I told him I knew, but asked if I had any pains in my calf. Surprisingly I did, but had figured it was due to me slipping pulling something. I explained to him it wasn't a large pain but he then insisted it actually might be a pulmonary embolism and possibly a blood clot making its way to my lungs. He called ahead and I went to the ER.

I explained the situation again, in full detail, to the staff at the hospital. The nurse that checked me in gave me a mask just in case, but no one else seemed interested or worried about the possibility. The PA asked a few qualifying questions. The big ones. Have I traveled to Wuhan, China? Close to anyone who has? In which I replied no, but followed up again with co-workers returning from South Korea. She didn't seem to care. I explained to her, whether it's a respiratory infection, or a pulmonary embolism I just want to find out what is going on.

Over the next few hrs the staff checked my vitals, tested my blood, gave me imaging, and a d-dimer test to check for clotting. In which the test came back negative. I thought for sure once they ruled out the possibility of an embolism they would focus on the respiratory infection given the history I had told them, but they didn't, I was told the imaging didn't return anything significant, so it's probably some virus kicking my ###, and I was sent home with a prescription for a corticosteroid and an inhaler. I was released too late to pick up the prescription, and that night my breathing got exponentially worse, and for the next week I couldn’t get out of bed.

I didn't realize it at the time but corticosteroids decreases your immune system's response to various diseases, so on top already having an incident, being told it is probably some virus kicking my ###, the hospital knowing about where I work and my work history, decided to let me leave knowingly, and without informing me, that I would be walking around with a compromised immune system. I couldn't help but wonder whether others are being prescribed corticosteroids under similar circumstances and if so, drastically increasing the risk of catching infection, esp COVID.

Yesterday was my last day on the corticosteroids and today I feel I may be starting to relapse. My voice sounds like I have laryngitis again. I'm still fatigued, but haven’t left the house or done any strenuous activity to know whether my breathing is normal. I figured this could be my body's response as it adjusts to not being on the steroids anymore, but I'm unsure. My fiancé is worried again, and I'm growing increasingly more concerned by the day for a couple reasons. Yes, I'm worried of the possibility of having the disease without the ability to get tested, but I'm equally as concerned of carrying and possibly spreading it to others.

Our plan is to consult my physician again tomorrow morning. I don't plan on returning to work until Monday providing everything checks out. However, it all seems a bit hopeless at the moment given they aren't willing to test me regardless. Perhaps I should walk into the hospital wearing a Diamond Princess, or I heart Wuhan t-shirt, that might be enough to get their attention. However, just sharing my story with whomever might read this is therapeutic. I hope it provides a bit of perspective and caution. Maybe I'll do an update but I'm not sure if anyone will even read this. Either way, if you are reading this, I wish you good health during these uncertain times."
Click to expand...
These kind of click baity posts are things I just don’t buy. You look at their posting history on reddit and they basically just started two weeks ago on Reddit posting on Coronavirus page. Looks like some troll trying to create a sensation. 
 

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Agree that everyone is making informed guesses at this point.

Mine is that we'll have a worldwide pandemic.  And roughly 1/150 people infected will die.  Mostly people who are old or sick already. 
Click to expand...
1 in 150 people worldwide? 

There are roughly 7.8 billion people in the world. 

You are predicting about 52 million people dying from this thing worldwide.

I'm no scientist...but is there somewhere I can bet the under?

 
eoMMan said:
1 in 150 people worldwide? 

There are roughly 7.8 billion people in the world. 

You are predicting about 52 million people dying from this thing worldwide.

I'm no scientist...but is there somewhere I can bet the under?
Click to expand...
Not everyone will be infected.

Also, the 1918 influenza virus infected about 1/3 people worldwide and killed 20-50 million of them on a population base of about 1.5 billion.  But the mortality rate there was 5%+.

Lets say 1/3 people get the disease again.  Call it 2.5B with 1/150 dying.  That's still 17MM worldwide.  If the 2.5-3.0% mortality rate ends up being right you'd end up north of your 52MM estimate though.

There's no guarantees that happens.  Maybe the crazy Israeli chicken researchers' vaccine is legit.  Maybe it doesn't spread as far and wide as it seems it will.  Maybe the rate of undetected infection is really 90%. etc.

But if it is uncontained (as it seems to be) and .67% of people who are infected die, this will kill many millions of people worldwide.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
eoMMan said:
1 in 150 people worldwide? 

There are roughly 7.8 billion people in the world. 

You are predicting about 52 million people dying from this thing worldwide.

I'm no scientist...but is there somewhere I can bet the under?
Click to expand...


Some scientists believe this will affect 40-60% of the population (roughly 4 billion people)

Current best guess for the mortality rate is 1-2%, or 40-80 million people if it truly hits half the population.

 
Good Fully Cited, HIgh Content post here: 

(bolded highlights mine) 

Compilation of information for health professionals

I've been maintaining a comment with information for health professionals in the r/medicine COVID-19 [megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/f9jbqo/megathread_covid19_aka_2019ncov). Figured it might be good to post here as well.

**Basics**:

* **Name of virus:** SARS-CoV-2

* **Name of illness:** COVID-19

* **R0 SARS-CoV-2**: 2.28 - 3.28 [2](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712\(20\)30091-6/fulltext),[27](https://bit.ly/2I1by2r)

* **R0 Seasonal Influenza:** 1.28 [19](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/25186370/)

* **COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate:** 2.3% - 4.3% [3](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420), [4](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v2) (Note that CFR is very difficult to estimate accurately in any situation, but especially in an evolving situation like this)

* **2019-2020 Influenza Fatality Rate:** 0.039% - 0.14% [5](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm)

* ***Confirmed* Cases (World):** 82,738 (2/27/20 1700 EST) [13](https://ncov2019.live/data)

* ***Confirmed* Cases (Non-China):** 4,265 (2/27/20 1700 EST) [14](https://ncov2019.live/data)

* ***Confirmed* Cases (US):** 60 (2/27/20 1700 EST) [15](https://ncov2019.live/data)

* **Case Doubling Time (Non-China):** 6 days [18](https://coronainfo.xyz/)

* **Transmission Methods:** Respiratory droplet and touch/fomites [6](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html), possible fecal-oral [21](https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925575), possible airborne [28](https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/china-officially-announces-that-the-coronavirus-can-be-airborne-and-can-be-conditionally-spread-via-aerosol-transmission-),[29](https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200219_43/)

* **Incubation Period:** 2-14 days [7](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html)

* **Persistence on Inanimate Surfaces:** Up to 9 days. Less at temperatures above 30C [27](https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701%2820%2930046-3/fulltext)

**Symptoms:** Fever, cough, SOB [8](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html). *It seems to start with a fever, followed by a dry cough.* After a week, it can lead to shortness of breath, with about **20% of patients requiring hospital treatment**. Notably, the COVID-19 infection rarely seems to cause a runny nose, sneezing, or sore throat [9](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/). Some atypical patients [may present](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32096611) initially with GI symptoms.

**Clinical Features**: Pneumonia appears to be the most frequent serious manifestation of infection, characterized primarily by fever, cough, dyspnea, and bilateral infiltrates on chest imaging. Most infections are not severe, although many patients have had critical illness. In a report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention that included approximately 44,500 confirmed infections with an estimation of disease severity, 81 percent were mild (no or mild pneumonia), 14 percent were severe (eg, with dyspnea, hypoxia, or >50 percent lung involvement on imaging within 24 to 48 hours), and 5 percent were critical (eg, with respiratory failure, shock, or multiorgan dysfunction). White count is variable. In a study involving PNA pts, "**lymphopenia** was common, and all patients had parenchymal lung abnormalities on computed tomography of the chest, including bilateral patchy shadows or ground-glass opacities." Acute respiratory distress syndrome developed in 20 percent, and mechanical ventilation was implemented in 12.3 percent. Among the six patients who died, D-dimer levels were higher and lymphopenia was more severe compared with survivors. [23](https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19?csi=6bb0f4c3-201c-4b34-a17a-e97a91e69d60&source=contentShare#H3392906512)

**Treatment**:

Treatment is primarily supportive. The following medications have either been tentatively shown to be efficacious, or are under investigation as treatment
 

(Sorry @chet)

* **Lopinavir/ritonavir**: Protease inhibitor, in [combination with oseltamivir](https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1860329/woman-74-recovers-from-virus-after-thai-cocktail) or in combination with [abidol](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32096367)

* **Chloroquine Phosphate**: Antimalarial [showing promise](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32075365) as a [treatment](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550)

* **Remdesivir:** Nucleotide analog currently in [clinical trials](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04257656)

* **Hydroxychloroquine**: [In clinical trials](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04261517) as treatment

* **Favipiravir**: [Approved for clinical trial](http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/17/WS5e49efc2a310128217277fa3.html) in China

* **Fingolimod**: [In clinical trials](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04280588) in China

* **Methylprednisolone**: Glucocorticoid [in clinical trials](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04273321) in China

* **Bevacizumab**: VEGF inhibitor [in clinical trials](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04275414) in China

**When to test:** [25](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-criteria.html)

* Fever or signs/symptoms of lower respiratory illness (e.g. cough or shortness of breath) **AND** Any person, including health care workers, who has had close contact) with a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patient within 14 days of symptom onset

     OR

* Fever and signs/symptoms of a lower respiratory illness (e.g., cough or shortness of breath) requiring hospitalization **AND** A history of travel from affected geographic areas within 14 days of symptom onset

OR

* Fever with severe acute lower respiratory illness (e.g., pneumonia, ARDS) requiring hospitalization and without alternative explanatory diagnosis (e.g., influenza) **AND** No source of exposure has been identified

**How to test:** Healthcare providers should immediately notify both infection control personnel at their healthcare facility and their local or state health department in the event of a PUI for COVID-19. State health departments that have identified a PUI should immediately contact CDC’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC) at 770-488-7100 and complete a COVID-19 PUI case investigation form available below. [26](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-criteria.html) ([Specimen collection guidelines](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-criteria.html))

**Information:**

* [CDC Info for health professionals] (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/index.html)

* [WHO Technical Guidance](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance)

* [AMA resource center for health professionals](https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/covid-19-2019-novel-coronavirus-resource-center-physicians)

* [ACP Information for Internists](https://www.acponline.org/clinical-information/clinical-resources-products/novel-coronavirus-information-for-internists)

* [CDC Pandemic Preparedness Resources](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-preparedness-resources.html)

* [UpToDate COVID-19](https://bit.ly/2Tphyam)

**Trackers and data**

* [Worldometers (lots of disease stats)](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

* [ncov2019.live (up to date cases numbers)](https://ncov2019.live/data)

* [coronainfo.xyz (nice case plots)](https://coronainfo.xyz/)

* [BNO News (case tracker with map)](https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/)

* [Johns Hopkins Map](https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

* [Outbreak Wikipedia](https://bit.ly/3c8pAgu)

**Subreddits to Follow:**

* r/COVID19 - Scientific Discussion

* r/Coronavirus - More casual discussion but moderated for accuracy

* r/China_Flu - Speculation and Conspiracy

**Death Rate Stats:**

> The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19. 

Age | Death Rate
---|----------
80+ years old  | 14.8%
70-79 years old  | 8.0%
60-69 years old  | 3.6%
50-59 years old | 1.3%
40-49 years old  | 0.4%
30-39 years old | 0.2%
20-29 years old  | 0.2%
10-19 years old  | 0.2%
0-9 years old   | None
[10](https://bit.ly/2wca1Uy)

Sex | Death Rate
---|----------
Male | 2.8%
Female | 1.7%
[11](https://bit.ly/2wca1Uy)

> The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

Pre-existing Condition | Death Rate
---|----------
Cardiovascular disease | 10.5%
Diabetes | 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease | 6.3%
Hypertension | 6.0%
Cancer | 5.6%
no pre-existing conditions | 0.9%
[12](https://bit.ly/2wca1Uy)

I should mention that I'm a fourth year med student in the US.

 
eoMMan said:
1 in 150 people worldwide? 

There are roughly 7.8 billion people in the world. 

You are predicting about 52 million people dying from this thing worldwide.

I'm no scientist...but is there somewhere I can bet the under?
Click to expand...
You're assuming 100% of the world is infected? 

 
We are up to 6 deaths on the Diamond Princess, out of 705 infections.  Again, aside from the age of the passengers (which I've seen no reliable info on), this is a pretty solid indicator of the mortality rate.

So we're already at .8%, and I'd definitely expect that number to rise.  If this ship skews older, it would be interesting to know by how much.  We should be able to do some math and see if the final death rate matches up with the studies that are coming out of China.

 
shader said:
Some scientists believe this will affect 40-60% of the population (roughly 4 billion people)

Current best guess for the mortality rate is 1-2%, or 40-80 million people if it truly hits half the population.
Click to expand...
I really don't see that happening and honestly, I think this is a scenario of scientist fearing the worst (which I admit isn't necessarily a bad thing).

It seems like we are learning more about the virus....everything from treatment to how fast it transmits to possible vaccines....everyday.  

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

K
Coronavirus prevention
Replies
4
Views
324
JaxBill
JaxBill
nirad3
COVID-19 / CoronaVirus - terms/phrases
Replies
35
Views
623
Galileo
Galileo
Joe Bryant
Scared to ask but don't have anywhere else - Clay Travis Article?
2
Replies
71
Views
3K
roadkill1292
roadkill1292

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 13 (members: 0, guests: 13)
Top