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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (20 Viewers)

1% of the US population is 3M+
Yep missed a zero. Even better.

If 327,000 Americans die it will be 0.1% that fell victim to this. Those aren't numbers that should make someone afraid to venture into public without some underlying condition. And 327,000 Americans are not going to die of this. I'll happily delete my account if we ever hit that number.

 
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Clarifying just a little...

1% of the the entire US population isn't going to die from this. We need to hit 327,000 deaths in the U.S. to hit 1% and that still wouldn't equal a 1% chance of dying for most people.

If you get it, there looks to be a 1% chance of dying from it when accounting for the entire group of people who tested positive. And that number could drop further by half as further testing is done. And then finally that number further drops if you're healthy, young, and don't have underlying conditions. 

Not sure if you were saying there's a 1 in 100 chance of dying from coronavirus once we return to normal life, but yeah it's not even close to that. And if you're healthy the chance is as negligible as you're chances of falling down the stairs and dying. Your chances of dying in a car accident are far times greater. 
The "so" in the sentence with the 1% dying statement was meant to tie it to the sentence previous which discussed getting the virus.

I apologize if that wasn't clear.

 
You'd be missing the stories from hospitals in places like California, Washington, and Nevada that had spikes in people coming through their doors during the months of December and January. It didn't make news because the doctors and nurses there thought they were seeing a bad flu season. It seems as though many people aren't aware the hospitals go through consecutive days, even weeks when they're seeing a lot more patients during the winter months having trouble with cold and flu. It does happen. Even to the extent that they start treating people in hallways and waiting rooms. The difference - the news vans aren't parked out front and a huge spotlight isn't on the hospital. 
But again, the exponential growth of this virus is pretty clearly established.  If that was the case, you can back up to those dates, estimate the number of infected, and in an open society you can estimate when "peak infection" should have happened.  When deaths should have spiked, hospitals overrun.  

So if that's not something that happened, some assumptions have to be wrong.  Perhaps the transmissability of the disease?  NO reason to believe that has changed.  Maybe it just hit healthy populations - but again community spread would've hit tons of older folks with the corresponding deaths and overruning of hosptials.

So...how does this story work with what we're clearly seeing across the country with Coronavirus, its spread, its severity, and it's hit on hospitals at the time predicted by those epidemiologists the media report on.

I still don't see the way this could have been widespread in december as the outbreak would have had a different form.

 
Yep missed a zero. Even better.

If 327,000 Americans die it will be 0.1% that fell victim to this. Those aren't numbers that should make someone afraid to venture into public without some underlying condition. And 327,000 Americans are not going to die of this. I'll happily delete my account if we ever hit that number.
Spain is already at 0.035% of all its citizens dying from it.... with mitigation efforts. 

 
You'd be missing the stories from hospitals in places like California, Washington, and Nevada that had spikes in people coming through their doors during the months of December and January. It didn't make news because the doctors and nurses there thought they were seeing a bad flu season. It seems as though many people aren't aware the hospitals go through consecutive days, even weeks when they're seeing a lot more patients during the winter months having trouble with cold and flu. It does happen. Even to the extent that they start treating people in hallways and waiting rooms. The difference - the news vans aren't parked out front and a huge spotlight isn't on the hospital. 
Stories don’t equal science.  All that is irrelevant info until you can bring some data to the table.

 
But again, the exponential growth of this virus is pretty clearly established.  If that was the case, you can back up to those dates, estimate the number of infected, and in an open society you can estimate when "peak infection" should have happened.  When deaths should have spiked, hospitals overrun.  

So if that's not something that happened, some assumptions have to be wrong.  Perhaps the transmissability of the disease?  NO reason to believe that has changed.  Maybe it just hit healthy populations - but again community spread would've hit tons of older folks with the corresponding deaths and overruning of hosptials.

So...how does this story work with what we're clearly seeing across the country with Coronavirus, its spread, its severity, and it's hit on hospitals at the time predicted by those epidemiologists the media report on.

I still don't see the way this could have been widespread in december as the outbreak would have had a different form.
Remember in December, January, and February these deaths which may have been CV19 in some cases were being recorded as flu, pneumonia, other larger causes of death, etc. The argument is that the deaths were still there, they just got lost in the noise. 20K have died from this in the U.S. according to the current numbers. But that's now counting almost all flu and pneumonia deaths as CV19. Prior to March those spikes and issues in places that may have been hit first and the ensuing deaths were absorbed into other stats. The numbers are impossibly hard to get a real count right now. Just as many CV19 deaths would have been missed in the early months, many of the ones now aren't CV19. They're admittedly going to have to go back later and make those determinations.

 
Questioning the timing is one of the oddest tangents. It’s pretty clear when the cases started, the hospitalizations, the deaths. It’s such an odd conversation. What are people trying to say exactly?

Just seems like so much noise to complicate the situation unnecessarily.  What’s the end game? “Look it’s no big deal”? Tell that to the families of the 20K who have died. “It’s been here since December probably and me and my wife think we had it”. So what?

 
Stories don’t equal science.  All that is irrelevant info until you can bring some data to the table.
Yep looking forward to all those anecdotal stories being proven out when they have the time to fully dig into what happened. The good news is that this IS all provable once the tests can be done. A whole lot of people are going to feel awfully foolish when it's all said on done. We just can't say for sure which side yet.

 
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Remember in December, January, and February these deaths which may have been CV19 in some cases were being recorded as flu, pneumonia, other larger causes of death, etc. The argument is that the deaths were still there, they just got lost in the noise. 20K have died from this in the U.S. according to the current numbers. But that's now counting almost all flu and pneumonia deaths as CV19. Prior to March those spikes and issues in places that may have been hit first and the ensuing deaths were absorbed into other stats. The numbers are impossibly hard to get a real count right now. Just as many CV19 deaths would have been missed in the early months, many of the ones now aren't CV19. They're admittedly going to have to go back later and make those determinations.
`Again, it's not just how the deaths are recorded.  Currently, hospitals are being overrun with patients...not just patients who can be mistaken for flu, but intubation after intubation, ventilator after ventilator.  Deaths at volumes nurses are having PTSD.

This happens in predictable ways with pandemics with exponential growth.  When you have a spike like that, you can start to back out when the initial infections started.

The scope and instances of hitting "peak infections" follows very well with what has been reported by the MSM based not on their views, but based on the analyses of epidemiologists...experts who study this stuff.

All I'm hearing is a lot of folks were getting sick early on this year.  I've seen the same thing.  But I"m not willing to say it's Covid-19 because the nature of the spread of that disease looks entirely different over time than what we've seen, if the initial infections started in December.

 
Questioning the timing is one of the oddest tangents. It’s pretty clear when the cases started, the hospitalizations, the deaths. It’s such an odd conversation. What are people trying to say exactly?

Just seems like so much noise to complicate the situation unnecessarily.  What’s the end game? “Look it’s no big deal”? Tell that to the families of the 20K who have died. “It’s been here since December probably and me and my wife think we had it”. So what?
That's like asking why do we accept 40,000 U.S. flu deaths each year. Or 60 million deaths total from all causes worldwide. The reason people will want to know is because of the toll our potentially misplaced measures will take on potentially many multiple more lives.

 
Questioning the timing is one of the oddest tangents. It’s pretty clear when the cases started, the hospitalizations, the deaths. It’s such an odd conversation. What are people trying to say exactly?

Just seems like so much noise to complicate the situation unnecessarily.  What’s the end game? “Look it’s no big deal”? Tell that to the families of the 20K who have died. “It’s been here since December probably and me and my wife think we had it”. So what?
The goal seems to be to support you can't listen to the MSM.  

One of the biggest issues in this country is folks not having any real idea on who are the more trustworthy sources of information int he country.  Clearly the MSM has been doing a great job on this, and largely they've been reporting what the experts have been saying.

Sadly, there's a huge element of folks who want to discount the experts and question the MSM.

It does no one any good.

 
Since you seem pretty comfortable in your medical knowledge, can you explain how you'd interpret antibody testing? I'd like to know if you're talking about IgM, IgG, or both - and don't forget to include a reminder how disease prevalence influences positive predictive value.

If that's above your pay grade, a laughing emoji will suffice.
It is pretty clear your  not  a Dr.  How hard is it to say otherwise, others have asked and all you do is get snarky with them.  I could Google like you, but I don't need to.  So keep me on ignore if you're not going to answer and I'll keep ignoring you.  But I will continue to laugh at your fear mongering.

 
Yep looking forward to all those anecdotal stories being proven out when they have the time to fully dig into what happened. The good news is that this IS all provable once the tests can be done. A whole lot of people are going to feel awfully foolish when it's all said on done. We just can say for sure which side yet.
I’m not looking to be right or win an internet argument.  I’m looking at data we currently have when I try to make decisions for people in my world.  If this virus has been here since November and it turns out it kills .01% of people I’ll feel relieved, not foolish. 
 

 I’m not going to change my opinion on covid-19 because you say that there were spikes in California in December.  You can’t just make assertions and expect people to believe you if you aren’t bringing facts to the table. 

 
Questioning the timing is one of the oddest tangents. It’s pretty clear when the cases started, the hospitalizations, the deaths. It’s such an odd conversation. What are people trying to say exactly?

Just seems like so much noise to complicate the situation unnecessarily.  What’s the end game? “Look it’s no big deal”? Tell that to the families of the 20K who have died. “It’s been here since December probably and me and my wife think we had it”. So what?
They want to open society back up. Since it has been here longer they can say it is not such a big deal and being blown out of proportion.

 
I’m not looking to be right or win an internet argument.  I’m looking at data we currently have when I try to make decisions for people in my world.  If this virus has been here since November and it turns out it kills .01% of people I’ll feel relieved, not foolish. 
 

 I’m not going to change my opinion on covid-19 because you say that there were spikes in California in December.  You can’t just make assertions and expect people to believe you if you aren’t bringing facts to the table. 
Yep, I made this all up and never posted links to the doctors and scientists who back these numbers and arguments.

Where do you get off saying nonsense like that? 

 
The State of New York  is already at 0.044% of all its citizens dying from it.... with mitigation efforts.

and 

The City of New York is already at 0.076% of all its citizens dying from it.... with mitigation efforts. 
Probably higher. We had around 1100 people die in the street or their home April 1-5. None of those were classified Covid-19, but it was 8 times higher than the previous year.

ETA - for NYC 

 
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They want to open society back up. Since it has been here longer they can say it is not such a big deal and being blown out of proportion.
From my observation from social media, it's gaining steam.

Would it be inappropriate to respond to it by saying "Ok.... you go first" in my best Sallah voice (Raiders of the Lost Ark above the snake pit)?

 
It is pretty clear your  not  a Dr.  How hard is it to say otherwise, others have asked and all you do is get snarky with them.  I could Google like you, but I don't need to.  So keep me on ignore if you're not going to answer and I'll keep ignoring you.  But I will continue to laugh at your fear mongering.
Are you a doctor?

 
Yep, I made this all up and never posted links to the doctors and scientists who back these numbers and arguments.

Where do you get off saying nonsense like that? 
Mr A, this is a huge thread.  I don’t recall anyone providing proof that there were big spikes in California, Nevada and Washington in December and January. If you’ve provided that, my apologies.  
 

Surely you understand that this is not the commonly accepted timeline provided by the medical community, so forgive me if I want to see proof before I just....believe you.

 
Probably higher. We had around 1100 people die in the street or their home April 1-5. None of those were classified Covid-19, but it was 8 times higher than the previous year.

ETA - for NYC 
cardiac arrests are up something like 400% in NYC.  those aren't being counted as COVID deaths.

 
Yep missed a zero. Even better.

If 327,000 Americans die it will be 0.1% that fell victim to this. Those aren't numbers that should make someone afraid to venture into public without some underlying condition. And 327,000 Americans are not going to die of this. I'll happily delete my account if we ever hit that number.
What number would make you concerned enough to justify the current containment measures?

 
From my observation from social media, it's gaining steam.

Would it be inappropriate to respond to it by saying "Ok.... you go first" in my best Sallah voice (Raiders of the Lost Ark above the snake pit)?
Agree, of course it would be much worse if we didn’t have these measures. 
 

Also, a lot of NIMBY going on. First, China’s problem, then Italy’s problem and now NY’s problem. Wish people would realize it is more then just a problem of someone else and really all our problem. 

 
From my observation from social media, it's gaining steam.

Would it be inappropriate to respond to it by saying "Ok.... you go first" in my best Sallah voice (Raiders of the Lost Ark above the snake pit)?
For many people on social media or the internet, it’s 100% a political POV.  These ideas are not unique to 4-5 posters on this board.  They are sprouting like wildfire right now on many websites and twitter accounts that lean a certain way.

 
cardiac arrests are up something like 400% in NYC.  those aren't being counted as COVID deaths.
This is a sad reality. My dad had a heart attack last year. He rushed to the hospital.  Was minutes from dying.  He’s fine now.

That indecision makes people ask “should I go?  What if I catch covid-19?? If my dad had spent ten minutes debating whether he should go to the hospital he would have died.

Imo that’s a big reason why that’s happening. People aren’t going to the hospital like normal. So sad to see.

 
Questioning the timing is one of the oddest tangents. It’s pretty clear when the cases started, the hospitalizations, the deaths. It’s such an odd conversation. What are people trying to say exactly?

Just seems like so much noise to complicate the situation unnecessarily.  What’s the end game? “Look it’s no big deal”? Tell that to the families of the 20K who have died. “It’s been here since December probably and me and my wife think we had it”. So what?
People are trying to create facts to fit their theory that it's "just the flu."   If it's been around since November (as some outliers claim), and 30% of people getting tested show antibodies (as was reported today based on an interview with a random phlebotomist),  then the mortality rate is extremely low, we're already pushing the threshold of herd immunity, and we should just re-open the economy.   Gee, I wonder where this is coming from?

 
Mr A, this is a huge thread.  I don’t recall anyone providing proof that there were big spikes in California, Nevada and Washington in December and January. If you’ve provided that, my apologies.  
 

Surely you understand that this is not the commonly accepted timeline provided by the medical community, so forgive me if I want to see proof before I just....believe you.
You literally don't have proof of many of the suggestions you share. Remember talking about 12-13% mortality rates? You're posting links and talking about the conclusions and finding of the experts you're listening to. I'm not claiming these to be my findings, are you claiming what you link to be yours? The doctors and experts I'm reading are saying that when it's all said and done we'll see a far lower mortality rate than assumed and we'll see this was around a lot longer than assumed. And we'll then realize that more targeted and more intelligent measures would have made more sense than shutting down society. I've shared the links to back up why these very credible people feel this way.

It's like everyone is ignoring countries who took a far different approach than shutting everything down and had much greater success with their approach.

 
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The goal seems to be to support you can't listen to the MSM.  

One of the biggest issues in this country is folks not having any real idea on who are the more trustworthy sources of information int he country.  Clearly the MSM has been doing a great job on this, and largely they've been reporting what the experts have been saying.

Sadly, there's a huge element of folks who want to discount the experts and question the MSM.

It does no one any good.


They want to open society back up. Since it has been here longer they can say it is not such a big deal and being blown out of proportion.
That’s unfortunate, and probably what I expected the reason was. It’s dangerous denier type mentality that we don’t need. 

There’s no short cuts to this. Social distancing measures until cases drop substantially in your region is what it’s going to take. Then testing, antibody testing, treatments, vaccine. Slow getting small businesses back when prudent, not sooner. Has to be repeated every day apparently. Stay vigilant, please. For loved ones and others’ loved ones. 

 
Yep, I made this all up and never posted links to the doctors and scientists who back these numbers and arguments.

Where do you get off saying nonsense like that? 
What are your scientists and doctors suggesting we do right now and over the next 4 weeks?   .

 
For many people on social media or the internet, it’s 100% a political POV.  These ideas are not unique to 4-5 posters on this board.  They are sprouting like wildfire right now on many websites and twitter accounts that lean a certain way.
Why go political on this?

 
The first KNOWN case in January has been documented for awhile. Do you assume that further studies and testing won't find earlier cases?
I'm assuming that if the bug were here in November, it didn't die out in January.  It's descendants  would be part of the current epidemic and show up in the sampling used for the study.  If it were there, it would show up as a separate branch of the family tree.
@Mr Anonymous - how do you account for this?  If COVID has been here since November, and if it was running wild thru December and on, doesn't it stand to reason that the November strain would be more common today than the one identified in January?  

And if so, how could it possibly be missed in the genetic sampling an mapping done for this study?  Because its quite clear how and when the virus came to the US.

 
You literally don't have proof of many of the suggestions you share. Remember talking about 12-13% mortality rates? You're posting links and talking about the conclusions and finding of the experts you're listening to. I'm not claiming these to be my findings, are you claiming what you link to be yours? The doctors and experts I'm reading are saying that when it's all said and done we'll see a far lower mortality rate than assumed and we'll see this was around a lot longer than assumed. And we'll then realize that more targeted and more intelligent measures would have made more sense than shutting down society. I've shared the links to back up why these very credible people feel this way.

It's like everyone is ignoring countries who took a far different approach than shutting everything down and had much greater success with there approach.
Please list any assertions I’ve made that I don’t have proof for.  Name one. I literally have no idea what you’re talking about.

 
For many people on social media or the internet, it’s 100% a political POV.  These ideas are not unique to 4-5 posters on this board.  They are sprouting like wildfire right now on many websites and twitter accounts that lean a certain way.
Knock it off trying to speak as though you know where people are getting their info or what political perspective they have. Why are you so desperate to belittle the other side? I'm posting links to credible, well respected doctors and scientists and unquestioned publications. Trying to cast the other side as purveyors of social media is convenient, petty, and shows just how insecure you are.

 
Remember in December, January, and February these deaths which may have been CV19 in some cases were being recorded as flu, pneumonia, other larger causes of death, etc. The argument is that the deaths were still there, they just got lost in the noise. 20K have died from this in the U.S. according to the current numbers. But that's now counting almost all flu and pneumonia deaths as CV19. Prior to March those spikes and issues in places that may have been hit first and the ensuing deaths were absorbed into other stats. The numbers are impossibly hard to get a real count right now. Just as many CV19 deaths would have been missed in the early months, many of the ones now aren't CV19. They're admittedly going to have to go back later and make those determinations.
Although the early symptoms of Covid-19 aren't especially noteworthy, the findings in more advanced disease are. As others have posted, it creates an unusual flavor of ARDS, which sometimes is manageable with prolonged ventilation/ECMO, but right at the point when patients seem to be turning the corner, they die of cardiac complications. I can think of no other disease which progresses in such a way. I can assure you this would garner attention, and lead to extra autopsies to investigate the deaths, at the minimum.

I don't think you're giving medical personnel enough credit to recognize something is awry. 

 
@Mr Anonymous - how do you account for this?  If COVID has been here since November, and if it was running wild thru December and on, doesn't it stand to reason that the November strain would be more common today than the one identified in January?  

And if so, how could it possibly be missed in the genetic sampling an mapping done for this study?  Because its quite clear how and when the virus came to the US.
What's more, if it was present in November or December, given the exponential growth these viruses exhibit for a virus no one is immune to and no vaccines exist for, the spread in a community or series of communities is fairly well known. 

However, what we've seen in the MSM in terms of predictions from experts about when hospitals will be overrun has been fairly on the ball.  So I'm open to being wrong.  I'm open to the idea I'm listening to the wrong sources, but based on the predictions that one can make based on the initial infection rates, the timlines of those infections, and the current death/critical rates...those the MSM is referencing have a fairly good track record. 

If the infections started way back in November/December in the US, there would have to be some explanations on why hospitals weren't overrun nationally considerably earlier, again given the mathematically consistent exponential spread of the disease.

 
My coworker said he got his stimulus money direct deposited today - $3400.  $1200 for himself, $1200 for his wife, and $500 each for his 2 kids.

That said, I have a question if anyone can answer it.  My brother owes back child support payments, and the IRS has taken all of his return each of the last 3 years.  Can they take his stimulus money too?

 
Although the early symptoms of Covid-19 aren't especially noteworthy, the findings in more advanced disease are. As others have posted, it creates an unusual flavor of ARDS, which sometimes is manageable with prolonged ventilation/ECMO, but right at the point when patients seem to be turning the corner, they die of cardiac complications. I can think of no other disease which progresses in such a way. I can assure you this would garner attention, and lead to extra autopsies to investigate the deaths, at the minimum.

I don't think you're giving medical personnel enough credit to recognize something is awry. 
Not only recognizing something is awry, but recognizing the sheer scale of something going wrong.

If the infections started earlier, the sheer scale of folks requiring ventilators, and still dying, would've caught the attention of every medical professional across the country.

 
Knock it off trying to speak as though you know where people are getting their info or what political perspective they have. Why are you so desperate to belittle the other side? I'm posting links to credible, well respected doctors and scientists and unquestioned publications. Trying to cast the other side as purveyors of social media is convenient, petty, and shows just how insecure you are.
I’m insecure?  Dude, you’ve really lost me.  I made a genuine effort tonight to reach out to you and have a rational discussion. 

 
What's more, if it was present in November or December, given the exponential growth these viruses exhibit for a virus no one is immune to and no vaccines exist for, the spread in a community or series of communities is fairly well known. 

However, what we've seen in the MSM in terms of predictions from experts about when hospitals will be overrun has been fairly on the ball.  So I'm open to being wrong.  I'm open to the idea I'm listening to the wrong sources, but based on the predictions that one can make based on the initial infection rates, the timlines of those infections, and the current death/critical rates...those the MSM is referencing have a fairly good track record. 

If the infections started way back in November/December in the US, there would have to be some explanations on why hospitals weren't overrun nationally considerably earlier, again given the mathematically consistent exponential spread of the disease.
The only reason for hospitals being overwhelmed is because of the media.  The caused this crap storm.

 
Each person that got sick was sick acutely for a day, spike in fever, then within 36 hours was completely fine.  A week goes by, the next person in the family gets it.  Same symptoms, same short period of time.  Doctor visit, says its' a virus and it'll pass.

That was unusual for us.  Again, we've had kids in the house for 8 years, and have 3 now.  This ain't our first rodeo.  Also, day schools never shut down in our area, as well as some schools, due to high volume of flu.  That, also, was unusual.
Agree.  At one point a few months back, 80% of my sons class was home with the flu or a virus like the flu.  a huge percentage of the entire school was ill.  Didn't think much about it at the time, but that is odd and definitely not the norm

 
My coworker said he got his stimulus money direct deposited today - $3400.  $1200 for himself, $1200 for his wife, and $500 each for his 2 kids.

That said, I have a question if anyone can answer it.  My brother owes back child support payments, and the IRS has taken all of his return each of the last 3 years.  Can they take his stimulus money too?
Can't wait with 11 kids and a wife gonna party til my liver is gone!

 

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