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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)

Mr Anonymous said:
That's like asking why do we accept 40,000 U.S. flu deaths each year. Or 60 million deaths total from all causes worldwide. The reason people will want to know is because of the toll our potentially misplaced measures will take on potentially many multiple more lives.
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Yeah, that's why we don't have vaccines or therapeutic treatments for the flu.   

 
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SoBeDad said:
I added the numbers (bolded) of inpatients with positive COVID-19 tests from the 2100 bed public hospital system in Miami, Jackson Hospital: https://twitter.com/jacksonhealth

Their total numbers are trending up, but I don't see a breakdown of new and discharged patients, or deaths. They expect the peak within a week or 2, but claim they're prepared. The 2nd largest system, Baptist Health was reporting their numbers at one time, but not anymore.
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According to this roughly 38% of adult ICU empty both state wide Florida and in Miami

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Well we know that's inaccurate because not all authorities or experts are recommending these same measures. So by that very fact, going one way or another is indeed choosing to believe in a side.
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When you say “authorities” and “experts”, what do you mean?

 
Statorama said:
You're fighting the good fight, but you're never going to convince Team Apocalypse that completely shutting down the country (and continuing to keep it shut down) was a massive overreaction.  Anyone that doesn't follow the mantra is labeled a heartless, cruel ******* that would rather save the economy than a single human life.

Hang in there buddy, Team Optimism has your back.
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What really sucks is we've already reached the point of massive food lines, an uptick in suicides, drug overdoses, and domestic abuse. At this pace, it won't take long for the reaction to do far more damage than the virus.

Even more perplexing is the fact that other countries were much smarter and directed with how they dealt with managing the spread. It's not like the whole world handled this the same way and we're just stuck watching bodies pile up because there's nothing we can do. The blanket idea of keeping all people at home no matter how low their individual risk is actually the simple-minded response and its result is going to be far more damaging than anything this virus ever comes close to.

 
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bentley said:
I’ve spent all week reading grant requests and directing funding to food banks here in Texas. They are all overwhelmed by the demands, and can’t even begin to help serve a significant percentage of the people in need. Feel free to send it here.
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First, I wish I had answers but I sadly don't. 

Second, tip of the cap to you and @BobbyLayne helping those in need.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Absolutely. Hawaii has been pretty good with containment measures: our total number of cases is relatively low, yet our ICU is still bursting at the seams.

No way this could have been circulating for months without someone taking notice, especially healthcare workers with increased risk. If a bunch of ER/ICU personnel developed severe pneumonia/ARDS and all the vents were already occupied, I expect more than a few eyebrows would be raised.

To play devil's advocate for the Stanford crowd, the only plausible explanation I can imagine is multiple strains of the virus, with the nastier one currently making rounds worldwide. 
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Exactly.  There would have to be characteristics of the disease that are unknown that could explain this.

As of now, everything known about the virus would have to have a different characteristic in November/December for this to make sense.

 
bentley said:
San Antonio had 4K first timers out of 10K families served last weekend. 
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I’m in the weeds in my volunteer life so I’m not privy to our overall numbers. Anecdotally I can tell you it’s a huge in Hispanic males, 20-40, no ID and no habla, starting 4 weeks ago when all the restaurants shut down. Those guys aren’t getting unemployment or stimulus checks.

 
JAA said:
When you say “authorities” and “experts”, what do you mean?
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Authorities in other countries that have taken a different path and expert doctors who think the reaction to this virus in many places, specifically the U.S. for one, is overblown.

They're every bit as credentialed and in many cases far more experienced than those authorities and experts saying the only way is to keep people at home.

 
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bucksoh said:
He has been putting people down in this thread.  He is posting like he is and people are buying into his fear morning b.s..  
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The only person I've potentially insulted in this thread is you, or more accurately, your profession. Perhaps that wasn't the most mature action on my part, but you've done more than your share of inflammatory posting, too, earning a time out in the process. Let's both try and be better.

I don't believe my credentials will change your opinion of what constitutes "fear mongering", so I'll move on to providing information many people find useful. 

 
Mr Anonymous said:
What really sucks is we've already reached the point of massive food lines, an uptick in suicides, drug overdoses, and domestic abuse. At this pace, it won't take long for the reaction to do far more damage than the virus.

Even more perplexing is the fact that other countries were much smarter and directed with how they dealt with managing the spread. It's not like the whole world handled this the same way and we're just stuck watching bodies pile up because there's nothing we can do. The blanket idea of keeping all people at home no matter how low their individual risk is actually the simple-minded response and its result is going to be far more damaging than anything this virus ever comes close to.
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My understanding is that other countries deployed widespread testing early while we pretended like it wasn’t a real threat, which led us to where we are now. Had we chosen a smarter path early, we wouldn’t have needed the current path.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
I do believe that until an issue is raised by the masses it doesn't get that level of scrutiny. Now it will. Once the digging is done I believe you see that those cases missed in Dec-Feb will be uncovered. And my opinion based on the backs of people like Dr. John Ioannidis is that this has been around since December at the latest. If you want to know more about his level of expertise have a look...

https://profiles.stanford.edu/john-ioannidis

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis

https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=JiiMY_wAAAAJ&hl=en

So when it comes to giving the medical personnel enough credit to recognize what was awry, I simply say that there are those who are very well credentialed who think they did miss this as it was happening early on. You certainly are aware of the occasions prior when extensive studies in post that reveal previously unexpected results.

We. Shall. See.
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Dr Ioannids has lofty credentials.  Can you link to exactly what he is claiming?  I'd be interested to hear his thoughts directly.  Apologies if you all ready linked.

If we are in the expert citing phase of the discussion, one of the authors of the report i linked earlier is Dr Trevor Bedford, who is also a pretty smart guy and who researches this stuff directly and has been doing so since day 1.  Here is what he said on the subject a couple days ago:

Trevor Bedford

@trvrb

Earliest transmission in the US was January 2020. There is zero probability it was circulating in fall 2019.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Authorities in other countries that have taken a different path and expert doctors who think the reaction to this virus in many places, specifically the U.S. for one, is overblown.

They're every bit as credentialed and in many cases far more experienced than those authorities and experts saying the only way is to keep people at home.
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Which countries are knocking it out of the park without social distancing?

 
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BobbyLayne said:
I’m in the weeds in my volunteer life so I’m not privy to our overall numbers. Anecdotally I can tell you it’s a huge in Hispanic males, 20-40, no ID and no habla, starting 4 weeks ago when all the restaurants shut down. Those guys aren’t getting unemployment or stimulus checks.
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I do have access to system data, and your personal experience tracks. Both the disease and the economic fallout from the disease hit poor black and brown people disproportionately. It’s like a double whammy to people who were already in trouble.

 
bentley said:
My understanding is that other countries deployed widespread testing early while we pretended like it wasn’t a real threat, which led us to where we are now. Had we chosen a smarter path early, we wouldn’t have needed the current path.
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I wonder if the shot caller at CDC that was offered tests but said "nah, we got this brah" will ever be known.  It really set us back.

 
bentley said:
My understanding is that other countries deployed widespread testing early while we pretended like it wasn’t a real threat, which led us to where we are now. Had we chosen a smarter path early, we wouldn’t have needed the current path.
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We still can choose the smarter path and I think we will. There are countries who never shut down at all and had targeted testing and response. There are also countries who shut down for periods of around 2-3 weeks, promoted the use of masks, and now are opening up even the most trivial businesses without massive testing in place. Yet here we are and we haven't really started doing either of those options.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Which countries are knocking it out of the park without social distancing?
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I don't think there are any countries that didn't employ social distancing. That's not the alternative measure(s) I was referring to. See my reply to bentley above where the basic, simple summary of two effective approaches is described.

 
Statorama said:
Mr Anonymous said:
That's like asking why do we accept 40,000 U.S. flu deaths each year. Or 60 million deaths total from all causes worldwide. The reason people will want to know is because of the toll our potentially misplaced measures will take on potentially many multiple more lives.
Click to expand...
You're fighting the good fight, but you're never going to convince Team Apocalypse that completely shutting down the country (and continuing to keep it shut down) was a massive overreaction.  Anyone that doesn't follow the mantra is labeled a heartless, cruel ******* that would rather save the economy than a single human life.

Hang in there buddy, Team Optimism has your back.
Click to expand...
It's not Team Apocalypse and Team Optimism at play here.

It's Team FollowTheData and Team Pollyanna.

Look at the damn data.

The whole #######g country shut down nearly, with everything closed.  And we're at 2,000 deaths a day.  

We've done almost everything we can as a country to stop this and we're still having insane numbers of hospitalizations, and daily deaths from ONE disease.

There are two kinds of folks in this situation.  Folks who are data driven, and folks who are driven by other things: politics, emotion, hope?

Look at the data. Argue the data.  But don't pretend like Fox News, or Rush, or Trump has had ANY validity regarding what was going on.  The experts and the MSM have been on top of this from day 1, predicting basically what has happened.

And based on those dire predictions, the country shut down.  And deaths are still spiking.  We have the worst outbreak level in the world, and because it's just 2k/month despite HEROIC efforts at cutting this off, you guys are like "what's the big deal".

There will always be folks who stare in the face of danger and invite others to follow them down the path to destruction.  Right now, unfortunately, because so many americans tune into sources that aren't listening to experts, or who have a drastic imbalance between desire for a restored economy vs one where life is preserved, too many of these "devil be damned" folks just want normal to return no matter the cost...and without a real understanding of what they're asking.  They don't trust the MSM, they in large part trust Trump (based on his record God only knows why), and they doubt the experts.

And they'll encourage folks to heed the sirens call of opening things back up.  "C'mon...the shutdown is worse than the virus.  Come hear our song.  Come steer your ship in this direction.  How bad can it be?  The MSM is lying to you.  Experts are wrong!  Open it all back up!  Come listen to our song."

And unfortunately, this is no small number in society, and our country is being run by many of these people.  God help us all.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
I don't think there are any countries that didn't employ social distancing. That's not the alternative measure(s) I was referring to. See my reply to bentley above where the basic, simple summary of two effective approaches is described.
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Thanks. I read that.

Which countries do you think have succeeded well with contrarian policies?

 
Mr Anonymous said:
We still can choose the smarter path and I think we will. There are countries who never shut down at all and had targeted testing and response. There are also countries who shut down for periods of around 2-3 weeks, promoted the use of masks, and now are opening up even the most trivial businesses without massive testing in place. Yet here we are and we haven't really started doing either of those options.
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So we didn’t deploy widespread testing or even have the ability for targeted testing today.

Which countries shut down for 2-3 weeks and are ok? I’m not familiar with one.

 
Mr. Ham said:
I hate to be a pessimist here, but I'm taking my money back out of markets Monday. It's going to dawn on people in the next 2 weeks that we have no plan to manage reintegration into public life, and GDP is going to retract 30-40% UNTIL THERE IS A VACCINE NEXT YEAR. Government botched the chance to put a wartime plan in place to test, contact trace, and isolate. In absence of that, and apparently in absence of substantial seasonal relief. when we go back to work and travel it will simply relight a 6 week fuse.

We won't diminish the curve meaningfully from herd immunity until after the vaccine. At some point it's going to dawn on people and the markets that small and medium sized businesses, and entire sectors that rely on brick-and-mortar traffic, are going to go completely under and have to be reinvested in out of bankruptsy next year.

We've dug a major hole with decades of deficit spending. Before we get back in the right direction, we may have a 30+ trillion deficit and still double digit unemployment.
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30-40%? Oof, man I hope you’re wrong on this one.

shader said:
1% of the US population is 3M+
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I was told there would be no math

Terminalxylem said:
Why no exhaust from one of the jets?
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We’re all cutting back these days

 
NotSmart said:
For anyone that makes it out of this Stay at Home period without contracting the virus, I don't understand why they would even consider going back to common social activities before there's a vaccine.

Activities like sporting events, theaters, theme parks, vacations - anywhere there are groupings of people that don't have well managed or realistically enforceable social distancing.

It's not a death sentence for sure to get the virus... well, probably not... like 99% of the time not. 

So there's only a 1% or so chance of dying. :loco:

But of course dying isn't the only bad outcome... there's also a non-trivial chance of being hospitalized (10%?)

And if hospitalized, a chance of needing ICU care.

And if ICU care is required, a chance of life long health consequences after the stay there.

If instead you are fortunate enough to have mild symptoms, then you may well transmit the virus to your family... will your wife have mild symptoms too?... your parents?...your children?

When we get started on the new normal, it's still going to be smart to make your best efforts to not contract C19 - which will require a pretty significantly new new normal.

But... I'm quite sure a lot of people will be willing to roll the dice in exchange to getting back to social activities.
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I’m Quarantining the best I can with my family not because i am worried about any of us getting the virus, I am worried about us passing the virus asymptomactially to someone else. 

For example, my wife works in a skilled nursing facility*. If me or the kids gave it to her unknowing and she brought it into her facility, the outcome could be that she now gets to watch the 40-60 patients slowly die from this, just like the facility in WA. That terrifies me. 

* - my wife works for a Life Care facility, the same company that owned the facility in WA

 
BobbyLayne said:
Thanks. I read that.

Which countries do you think have succeeded well with contrarian policies?
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Sure as long as I'm not attacked for repeating myself. South Korea and Taiwan have been lauded for targeted responses and testing. And Czech Republic and Austria have been lauded for short term shutdowns combined with embracing the use of masks in public.

 
It feel like 9-11 all over again, but in the respect of "HOW CAN JET FUEL BURN STEEL BEAMS?  It simply doesn't burn hot enough!!!!"

We're inching towards the same kind of armchair experts that become convinced of their own conspiracy theories regarding national tragedies, when in this case, the data is clear, across our country, across states, across other countries.  Look at the infection curves, from country to country they're incredibly uniform.  Why?  Are all countries in league with our MSM?  Are they all liberal US politico's trying to push an agenda?  OF course not.

THe reality is that this disease follows typical disease growth patterns.  It has typical characteristics that epidemiologists can explain to you.  Based on a societies reaction, based on what's done across the country, that will determine the spread of the disease, the spike of the patients needing acute care, the spike of deaths.  It's able to be modeled, it's understood.  But folks think jet fuel doesn't burn steel.  They latch onto their own "don't trust the MSM, don't trust the experts" mantra and believe that it's not that big a deal, it was here in november, december....opening up society will be less bad than keeping it shut in terms of deaths, in terms of suffering.  

But what models do they rely on for this?  What explanation of how the disease works is relied on for this analysis?  None.  It's a "I don't care...i want normal to return, i want my 401k returned, I want to go back to restaurants/bars...and I don't believe this is a big deal".  End of story. End of data.  End of referencing justification for these suggestions.

 
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