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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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1 hour ago, Ghost Rider said:

Regarding the midwest, I worry more about it being tornado season.

Yeah...especially here already on edge after one hit at the beginning of March.  And thinking even as bad as it was then...how much worse it would have been had it hit 2-3 weeks later during quarantine...the inability to really get out and help like people did before all of this. 

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40 minutes ago, glock said:

Nurse I know says that common denominators in her hospital in our neck of the woods here on LI are: over 65, obesity, diabetes, and Latinos...

OK?

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1 hour ago, JAA said:

Something I havnt seen or read yet:

If you have the antibodies, can you still be a carrier and infect others?

I believe the CHinese (could be Hong Kong) reported sometime in March that the risk was there of reinfectin but they had no cases where the reinfected were contagious or even symptomatic. I could be remembering this wrongly, lotsa water under the bridge since then

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1 hour ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Interesting. What exactly were they picking up on in early and mid November that clued them in? Did it state that anywhere? 

There have been rumours of first patients in Wuhan mid November rather than what the Chinese have said (which IIRC was December sometime)

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, the moops said:
2 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:
2 hours ago, JAA said:

Just curious, what do you mean by this?

North americans are fat and inactive, by and large

I wouldn't lump Mexicans or Canadians in with the obesity problem in the US

I think in general Mexicans don't think of themselves as "North Americans"

Edited by msommer

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33 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Only if a lot of dates were falsified. Really don't know what to think about that November-December 2019 time frame in Wuhan.

According to this 60 minutes report, "I don't think there's any dispute at all in terms of the scientific record that this virus made its original jump to the first human sometime in mid November" (around the 25 second mark)...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEQcvcyzQGE

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10 minutes ago, Navin Johnson said:

OK?

Nothing more than there is an obesity issue in our Latin-American communities. Extended families living together = "perfect" storm. 

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3 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/epidemiologist-coronavirus-exterminated-lockdowns-lifted/

Has this one been discussed in here? I'm seeing it making the rounds on my Facebook by justtheflubros of course :wall: 

Ask Sweden.  They themselves have debunked this and they are 100x more physically fit than the average american

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6 minutes ago, JAA said:

Ask Sweden.  They themselves have debunked this and they are 100x more physically fit than the average american

Are you referring to just their numbers etc, or are you saying someone there has addressed this "method" directly for debunking purposes? If the latter, I'd love to see a link as I am formulating my response to the people who have shared that link on FB :lol: 

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8 minutes ago, JAA said:

Ask Sweden.  They themselves have debunked this and they are 100x more physically fit than the average american

How exactly has Sweden debunked it?

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49 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Only if a lot of dates were falsified. Really don't know what to think about that November-December 2019 time frame in Wuhan.

There's really nothing we can say.  The official timeline makes the story impossible.  So either the story is wrong, or the official timeline.  I don't know how any of us could know the truth.

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2 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

If you are processing 20k tests a day. 11 k of which are negative. What is the protocol for those tests? 

Does that mean there are tons of people with covid like symptoms that dont have it???

What do they have then? 

 

Those negative tests need to be broken out by state.

My speculation would be that the states administering drive-through testing have the negatives.

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1 hour ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

No, I saw that, but maybe I missed something at some point. I thought Covid-19 wasn't reported until later in December in China? So I was curious what exactly they were seeing that was alerting them almost 2 months prior to that. Maybe it's classified. 

I think it’s a safe assumption that everything China has said is multiples worse than what they reported. Based on the progression of CV, it’s very possible that the first cases were in early November  and the Chinese government was able to cover it up until the cases in December.

Imagine if our initial outbreak in Washington was hidden from the public. They could claim that the virus wasn’t here until late February/early March.

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2 hours ago, shader said:

Everything we know about the origins of the virus says those dates are wrong.  If that report is accurate, then not only are China and the WHO lying about the origins and timeline...the CDC and the USA are too.

:yes:

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9 minutes ago, JAA said:

Wow - she is a piece of work.  Apparently a 2.7m salary also.  I doubt she makes it through this.

And I’m sure she’s home every day by 3 o’clock and hasn’t gotten within 50 feet of a Covid patient. 

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Posted (edited)

The one thing Italy is showing us is that even when the exponential growth stops, we have no idea when we can defeat this virus.  That's why projections, models, dates and everything we have are irrelevant. 

Today Italy's new case count went up from 3,039 to 3,836. 

Edited by shader
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2 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

So you think that recently unemployed people are passing on a seasonal job for less pay than staying at home for a different reason than money? 

This should be interesting. 

 

 

 

Please re-read my post, you are off

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Our (Louisiana) hospitalization and ventilator numbers decreased just a hair, but deaths held steady at 70 each day for the last 2 days. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, shader said:

There's really nothing we can say.  The official timeline makes the story impossible.  So either the story is wrong, or the official timeline.  I don't know how any of us could know the truth.

If by us, you mean the members of this forum and the general public, I agree. The scientific community on the other hand has agreed that this first appeared by mid November. That's documented. Any additional digging could only produce a case prior.

Edited by Mr Anonymous

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10 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Are you referring to just their numbers etc, or are you saying someone there has addressed this "method" directly for debunking purposes? If the latter, I'd love to see a link as I am formulating my response to the people who have shared that link on FB :lol: 

It was put up earlier.  They have a higher per-capita death rate than the US.  They are using the aforementioned "protect the susceptible".  I didnt keep the link, but it was shared on here today and quoted a few times.

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11 minutes ago, Navin Johnson said:

How exactly has Sweden debunked it?

Did you read the article?  Did you read the per-capita death rate being higher than the US?

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3 minutes ago, shader said:

The one thing Italy is showing us is that even when the exponential growth stops, we have no idea when we can defeat this virus.  That's why projections, models, dates and everything we have are irrelevant. 

Today Italy's new case count went up from 3,039 to 3,836. 

Yeah the idea that we’re gonna hit the peak and see a quick drop isn’t realistic. We’ll hit the top and likely sit there for awhile. 

We’re also different than many countries in that we have many different regions that will hit peaks at different times. Our national curve will be highly dependent on how bad those peaks are, when they hit and how efficient we are at moving resources to where they’re most needed.

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7 minutes ago, JAA said:

Did you read the article?  Did you read the per-capita death rate being higher than the US?

In fairness, the US rate just might increase...

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Looks like NJ may be hitting their bad stretch :(.  Also not looking good for PA, GA and my MA :(.  Next 3-5 days will tell.

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Just now, msommer said:

In fairness, the US rate just might increase...

Not sure I understand your point.  It could, it couldnt.  Sweden's could, or couldnt.

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Tex Gov Abbott says Walgreens will begin doing drive-thru testing

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1 hour ago, DaVinci said:

If the contagion was big enough to be seen by satellite in November, it would have had to have started in October or September, which suggests it would have shown up worldwide earlier than late January.

I guess it really depends on what exactly they were looking at with those satellite photos. Perhaps there is something else they look for other than mass graves. Mobilization of emergency trucks, or something. I'm betting early on China was playing wack a mole with cases before it got out of hand and they had to do full lockdown which is much more obvious.

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions. I don't think "NPI" is quite a household term yet, either -- probably should be written out on first reference.

Yeah, I hadn't heard of it, despite my wife being an academic in public health.  I'm not well versed in clinical stuff anyway.

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7 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Yeah the idea that we’re gonna hit the peak and see a quick drop isn’t realistic. We’ll hit the top and likely sit there for awhile. 

We’re also different than many countries in that we have many different regions that will hit peaks at different times. Our national curve will be highly dependent on how bad those peaks are, when they hit and how efficient we are at moving resources to where they’re most needed.

The Czech Republic made masks mandatory in public on March 19th and had 100% compliance within 10 days, mostly via homemade masks. They're set to start opening previously deemed non essential businesses beginning tomorrow. And even more businesses which are far from essential are set to open on Tuesday.

A timeline of the spread of the coronavirus outbreak in the Czech Republic

Czech Republic begins to soften anti-coronavirus measures

 

MASKS

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27 minutes ago, JAA said:
3 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

If you are processing 20k tests a day. 11 k of which are negative. What is the protocol for those tests? 

Does that mean there are tons of people with covid like symptoms that dont have it???

What do they have then? 

 

Those negative tests need to be broken out by state.

My speculation would be that the states administering drive-through testing have the negatives.

That was one state. NY.

WI has a much higher rate of negatives and there isnt drive thru testing.

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Just now, The Z Machine said:

Yeah, I hadn't heard of it, despite my wife being an academic in public health.  I'm not well versed in clinical stuff anyway.

First time I had heard it when I read the economic study of 1918 Spanish Flu vs CV19

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, shader said:

New York reports 779 deaths :(

Just reported 10,480 new cases too.  12 more than yesterday

 

EDIT: 6,923 appears to be the accurate number.

Edited by shader
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Just now, parasaurolophus said:
27 minutes ago, JAA said:
3 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

If you are processing 20k tests a day. 11 k of which are negative. What is the protocol for those tests? 

Does that mean there are tons of people with covid like symptoms that dont have it???

What do they have then? 

 

Those negative tests need to be broken out by state.

My speculation would be that the states administering drive-through testing have the negatives.

That was one state. NY.

WI has a much higher rate of negatives and there isnt drive thru testing.

Interesting.  No idea where all those negative tests could be coming from.

One thing I have heard from my wife via her medical colleagues, I dont have any links, is that some tests are being used on medical personal so they may work/return-to-work.

Regardless, it would be interesting to see where those negatives are coming from.

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Posted (edited)

The case against ventilators?

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/?utm_source=digg

 

That could be because the ones who get intubated are the sickest, he said, “but that has not been my experience: It makes things worse as a direct result of the intubation.” High levels of force and oxygen levels, both in quest of restoring oxygen saturation levels to normal, can injure the lungs. “I would do everything in my power to avoid intubating patients,” Weingart said.

One reason Covid-19 patients can have near-hypoxic levels of blood oxygen without the usual gasping and other signs of impairment is that their blood levels of carbon dioxide, which diffuses into air in the lungs and is then exhaled, remain low. That suggests the lungs are still accomplishing the critical job of removing carbon dioxide even if they’re struggling to absorb oxygen. That, too, is reminiscent of altitude sickness more than pneumonia.

 

@Terminalxylem

Edited by MTskibum
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14 minutes ago, JAA said:

Not sure I understand your point.  It could, it couldnt.  Sweden's could, or couldnt.

Sweden's is actually increasing daily, And I believe, so is that of the US

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Just now, MTskibum said:

The case against ventilators?

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/?utm_source=digg

 

That could be because the ones who get intubated are the sickest, he said, “but that has not been my experience: It makes things worse as a direct result of the intubation.” High levels of force and oxygen levels, both in quest of restoring oxygen saturation levels to normal, can injure the lungs. “I would do everything in my power to avoid intubating patients,” Weingart said.

One reason Covid-19 patients can have near-hypoxic levels of blood oxygen without the usual gasping and other signs of impairment is that their blood levels of carbon dioxide, which diffuses into air in the lungs and is then exhaled, remain low. That suggests the lungs are still accomplishing the critical job of removing carbon dioxide even if they’re struggling to absorb oxygen. That, too, is reminiscent of altitude sickness more than pneumonia.

I read that one this morning. All I could think was, man, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision that could mean life/death for someone. Because the wrong decision there could cost 2 people at once if, say, the CPAP wasn't enough for one patient who really needed a vent, or vice versa. And having to make that decision multiple times a day over a shift... just excruciating. 

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4 minutes ago, MTskibum said:

That, too, is reminiscent of altitude sickness more than pneumonia.

Very interesting.  What's the treatment for altitude sickness?  Chewing coca?

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10 minutes ago, shader said:

Just reported 10,480 new cases too.  12 more than yesterday

I'm seeing +6,932 new cases

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4 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/epidemiologist-coronavirus-exterminated-lockdowns-lifted/

Has this one been discussed in here? I'm seeing it making the rounds on my Facebook by justtheflubros of course :wall: 

Here was my reply to the one guy who mentioned me by name asking me to read his link... how'd I do? 

OK, so I read through that, a couple of times. I'll start by saying, obviously I'm not a doctor, I'm a data guy. I analyze data for a living.

I'll also just be up front in saying I am very leery of any news these days that doesn't quote a study, article, etc. from a reputable source. Secondly, this guy has a PhD in epidemiology, if am recalling that correctly, but has he worked with it or talked to any medical doctors that have worked with this virus directly? I'm guessing no. There are plenty of accounts out there of doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, etc. working the front lines with at or near capacity hospitals. Their perspectives are worth more to me than this PhD guy theorizing from his office at the library.

Thirdly, and maybe most importantly, his theory has been tried (and is in progress) by Sweden specifically. The initial thinking was that they were onto something, but as a few more days have passed, they're actually gaining steam in number of cases, and at this time, have surpassed all other Scandinavian countries AND the U.S. in per-capita deaths. And if they follow the eerily similar pattern (again, I'm strictly looking at the data on that, not reading news headlines) that China, Italy, and the U.S. have on "the curve," they're in for a dismal few weeks in Sweden.

So overall, I think there's enough data out there to warrant taking extreme caution. Because not doing so, and being wrong, can cost tens of thousands of American (or insert-your-country-here) lives.

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8 minutes ago, MTskibum said:

The case against ventilators?

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/?utm_source=digg

 

That could be because the ones who get intubated are the sickest, he said, “but that has not been my experience: It makes things worse as a direct result of the intubation.” High levels of force and oxygen levels, both in quest of restoring oxygen saturation levels to normal, can injure the lungs. “I would do everything in my power to avoid intubating patients,” Weingart said.

One reason Covid-19 patients can have near-hypoxic levels of blood oxygen without the usual gasping and other signs of impairment is that their blood levels of carbon dioxide, which diffuses into air in the lungs and is then exhaled, remain low. That suggests the lungs are still accomplishing the critical job of removing carbon dioxide even if they’re struggling to absorb oxygen. That, too, is reminiscent of altitude sickness more than pneumonia.

 

4 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

I read that one this morning. All I could think was, man, I'm glad I'm not the one having to make the decision that could mean life/death for someone. Because the wrong decision there could cost 2 people at once if, say, the CPAP wasn't enough for one patient who really needed a vent, or vice versa. And having to make that decision multiple times a day over a shift... just excruciating. 

Just goes to further show how early in the process of understanding this virus we remain. Can you imagine if it turns out that the reason so many died once they were put on ventilators is because of the ventilators themselves? Regardless of who or what anyone chooses to blame, it's April 8th and so much of this virus still remains a mystery to the experts.

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4 minutes ago, jamny said:

I'm seeing +6,932 new cases

My mistake, I quoted a tweet that popped up on my screen. 6,932 is what I'm seeing now too.  

 

 

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12 minutes ago, jamny said:

I'm seeing +6,932 new cases

Apparently there is an evening update.  BNOnews added yesterday's evening update to this morning's Cuomo update which is where they came up with their number.  6932 is Cuomo's update and there may be another update later today that gets added.

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1 hour ago, JAA said:

Ask Sweden.  They themselves have debunked this and they are 100x more physically fit than the average american

They have 678 deaths. 5 under 50

28 from 50-60

49 in 60-69 category.

182 in the 70-79

280 in 80-89

142 in 90+

 

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Just got an email from work. They are saying that April 22nd we may be open for urgent cases. I primarily work in elective surgery. We do some mohs reconstruction and glaucoma that could be considered urgent. My question is if I work for two days will that mess up my unemployment and will I have to go through the process of reapplying again?

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