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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)

Florida new cases and deaths by day - COVID19 in-patients at Jackson Health in Miami

4/3 - 1260 , 26 - 94

4/4 - 1277,  25 - 111

4/5-  805,  26 - 125

4/6 - 1279, 33 - 125

4/7 - 1118, 42 - 140

4/8 - 951,  27 - 136

4/9 - 1128, 48 - 148

4/10 - 1142, 48  - 149

4/11 - 1018, 27 - 163

4/12 - 969, 15 

Looks like some Sunday reporting going on

 
mr roboto said:
I work in franchising with a lot of fitness and beauty concepts and I own two personal training studios. I think there’s going to be some real disruptive model adaptations required especially with the 24 hour and big box health clubs and even the large group training concepts like Orange Theory and CycleBar that rely on 30 person classes to make money.
Click to expand...
Yeah—I’m kinda in a similar boat. i manage a high end full service jewelry store where we do custom fabrication, jewelry and watch repairs, customization, and retail sales of high end watches and jewelry.  We have 4 years left on a very expensive lease—and we can’t just “adapt” to an online model.  Many businesses like ours are founded upon face to face interaction and extreme customer service . Most small businesses can’t  just seamlessly take businesses online and try to be competitive with the amazons, ebays, blue niles, and multi-million and billion dollar corporations that already have top notch platforms online.  Secondly—after a couple months of having no business at all—how many small business owners are going to have the means to professionally photograph their entire inventory, hire a web development team to move their business online?  This would be on top of them trying to buy their way out of any potential leases they are locked in to.    The reality hasn’t really sunk in with a lot of people that society needs small brick and mortar shops and businesses to create the fabric of a culture or community.  Lastly—brick and mortar businesses keep a ton of people employed.  If every small business just “adapted” to being online—-there would be a huge prolonged unemployment problem.   There will be a tsunami of small businesses that go extinct because of this—and its not like there will be a line of people who will take their places without any hesitation.  The stock market will bounce back far more quickly than the “economy” will. 

 
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jvdesigns2002 said:
Yeah—I’m kinda in a similar boat. i manage a high end full service jewelry store where we do custom fabrication, jewelry and watch repairs, customization, and retail sales of high end watches and jewelry.  We have 4 years left on a very expensive lease—and we can’t just “adapt” to an online model.  Many businesses like ours are founded upon face to face interaction and extreme customer service . Most small businesses can’t  just seamlessly take businesses online and try to be competitive with the amazons, ebays, blue niles, and multi-million and billion dollar corporations that already have top notch platforms online.  Secondly—after a couple months of having no business at all—how many small business owners are going to have the means to professionally photograph their entire inventory, hire a web development team to move their business online?  This would be on top of them trying to buy their way out of any potential leases they are locked in to.    The reality hasn’t really sunk in with a lot of people that society needs small brick and mortar shops and businesses to create the fabric of a culture or community.  Lastly—brick and mortar businesses keep a ton of people employed.  If every small business just “adapted” to being online—-there would be a huge prolonged unemployment problem.   There will be a tsunami of small businesses that go extinct because of this—and its not like there will be a line of people who will take their places without any hesitation.  The stock market will bounce back far more quickly than the “economy” will. 
Click to expand...
Agree 100%.  The economy is screwed for quite a while. 

 
mr roboto said:
I work in franchising with a lot of fitness and beauty concepts and I own two personal training studios. I think there’s going to be some real disruptive model adaptations required especially with the 24 hour and big box health clubs and even the large group training concepts like Orange Theory and CycleBar that rely on 30 person classes to make money.
Click to expand...
My Orangetheory Zoom classes have a hundred people in them. They will be full as soon as any restrictions are lifted.

 
A "better"day on covid worldometers.  Just the lower Sunday effect?  New cases somewhere over 70,000; deaths around 5,400.  Russia cases still growing at around 10%.  Much higher percentages in Bangladesh and Ghana ..just so dispersed.  

On a brighter note, we had a wonderful, on-line service this morning for our Presbyterian church.  Different, certainly, but special and memorable.  Daughter and future SIL came out yesterday (shh!) for a nice brunch.  We face-timed with son and DIL this afternoon and watched the young grandsons run around the yard for a small Easter egg hunt.  All good.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Yeah—I’m kinda in a similar boat. i manage a high end full service jewelry store where we do custom fabrication, jewelry and watch repairs, customization, and retail sales of high end watches and jewelry.  We have 4 years left on a very expensive lease—and we can’t just “adapt” to an online model.  Many businesses like ours are founded upon face to face interaction and extreme customer service . Most small businesses can’t  just seamlessly take businesses online and try to be competitive with the amazons, ebays, blue niles, and multi-million and billion dollar corporations that already have top notch platforms online.  Secondly—after a couple months of having no business at all—how many small business owners are going to have the means to professionally photograph their entire inventory, hire a web development team to move their business online?  This would be on top of them trying to buy their way out of any potential leases they are locked in to.    The reality hasn’t really sunk in with a lot of people that society needs small brick and mortar shops and businesses to create the fabric of a culture or community.  Lastly—brick and mortar businesses keep a ton of people employed.  If every small business just “adapted” to being online—-there would be a huge prolonged unemployment problem.   There will be a tsunami of small businesses that go extinct because of this—and its not like there will be a line of people who will take their places without any hesitation.  The stock market will bounce back far more quickly than the “economy” will. 
Click to expand...
I think that if we are smart about it, businesses like this can exist.  If you and employees wear masks and gloves when dealing with customers, and limit the number in your shop at a time, i don't see why you couldn't stay in business.

It would take some clever legislation to figure out how to make this work.  I'll decline to post my (political) thoughts on how likely that is.

 
tri-man 47 said:
A "better"day on covid worldometers.  Just the lower Sunday effect?  New cases somewhere over 70,000; deaths around 5,400.  Russia cases still growing at around 10%.  Much higher percentages in Bangladesh and Ghana ..just so dispersed.  

On a brighter note, we had a wonderful, on-line service this morning for our Presbyterian church.  Different, certainly, but special and memorable.  Daughter and future SIL came out yesterday (shh!) for a nice brunch.  We face-timed with son and DIL this afternoon and watched the young grandsons run around the yard for a small Easter egg hunt.  All good.
Click to expand...
Can’t take any Sunday data serious imo 

 
NotSmart said:
18 months may be on the optimistic side - and as Pipes said, there is absolutely not a guarantee that we will even get a vaccine developed.
Click to expand...
Could you provide a link to something along these lines?  We're pretty good at making vaccines, so I would be surprised and disappointed if we didn't have one in 18 months.  

 
JaxBill said:
Florida new cases and deaths by day - COVID19 in-patients at Jackson Health in Miami

4/3 - 1260 , 26 - 94

4/4 - 1277,  25 - 111

4/5-  805,  26 - 125

4/6 - 1279, 33 - 125

4/7 - 1118, 42 - 140

4/8 - 951,  27 - 136

4/9 - 1128, 48 - 148

4/10 - 1142, 48  - 149

4/11 - 1018, 27 - 163

4/12 - 969, 15 - 161 

Looks like some Sunday reporting going on
Click to expand...
Miami's 2,100 bed public hospital system Jackson Health, holding steady at 161 in-patients. Yes, let's see what Monday brings. 

 
bentley said:
My Orangetheory Zoom classes have a hundred people in them. They will be full as soon as any restrictions are lifted.
Click to expand...
Possibly but I am thinking you are way overconfident on this. We will be told that we need to stay socially distance and they will probably restrict businesses to let allowing more than a certain number of people in a certain size space. Let’s just say I know a lot of folks in the higher levels of large group fitness concepts that are really concerned that they will have to significantly restrict class sizes for the next year.

 
bentley said:
The average person begs for a return to normalcy and will resume life as before as soon as they can. And anyone with money is going to overspend because of pent up demand.
Click to expand...
I do agree with this to a certain extent. I think the middle to upper middle-class folks in this country may exit this light down with a greater desire to spend and I think a lot of that spending will be focused on local versus national and international traveling expenditures so local businesses may see a surgeon demand compared to what many are predicting. As long as they can operate in a manner that will be in keeping with requirements.

 
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bentley said:
You’re assuming that the average person thinks things through. Maybe you’ve missed the videos of people defying lockdown orders and working out in parks or on beaches across the country.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Fitness centers, gyms, health clubs (along with wineries, breweries, tasting rooms, bars, pubs, and the like) will be packed at the first hint of any kind of easing restrictions. I expect long lines and waitlists for organized classes, as well as fewer accessible machines as health/fitness facilities re-arrange their floors to accommodate more spacing between members. 

 
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Reactions: JAA
I also think consumers will judge whether or not they feel safe in businesses. Our awareness in regards to hygiene, sanitation and distancing went from zero to extreme in a matter of weeks.

Also, we will be hearing constantly that COVID is still out there and it most likely will come back at some point this fall or winter so any business that doesn’t seriously adapt their operations to make people feel comfortable will have a very hard time attracting any type of business for at least the next year.

 
One bright spot for the fitness industry is that people who haven’t been taking proactive steps to lose weight or keep their blood pressure or blood sugar and check will realize just how much of a danger that could be and I might predict an uptick in spending on personal fitness and nutritional programs. But every brand I speak with understands that they have to have a full blown at home component that they can also monetize in case this comes back around again.

 
bentley said:
The average person begs for a return to normalcy and will resume life as before as soon as they can. And anyone with money is going to overspend because of pent up demand.
Click to expand...
I just sort of doubt that especially in hard hit cities.  And overspend on what?  I get overspend on their homes especially a year out, but what else?  I know most of my “overspending” was on sports tickets, restaurants, vacations, and recreation.  I can certainly see that spending cut in by 25-50% long term, but maybe I’m just scarred by what happened in NYC?

 
Read an article where some scientist (I think) said concerts and sporting events won’t return until the fall.............of 2021. 
 

Doesn’t seem sustainable for those industries.  

 
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Capella said:
Read an article where some scientist (I think) said concerts and sporting events won’t return until the fall.............of 2021. 
 

Doesn’t seem sustainable for those industries.  
Click to expand...
This would destroy much of European soccer. Only the top leagues could survive imo.

NFL could probably miss a year and survive.  
 

Could mlb and nba survive two seasons without games? With guaranteed salaries?  
 

 
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shader said:
This would destroy much of European soccer. Only the top leagues could survive imo.

NFL could probably miss a year and survive.  
 

Could mlb and nba survive two seasons without games? With guaranteed salaries?  
 
Click to expand...
If you can get rapid testing, I could see some sports just play games without fans with all the players being pseudo-centralized.  How realistic that really is is another story.  

MLB and hockey are the two most at risk here since they rely on attendance.  NFL and NBA would make it in that scenario. 

 
shader said:
Worst news of the day.  #firefauci is actually a popular hashtag on twitter
Click to expand...
I think Fauci will be ok. They fire him and conspiracy theories will rose. Plus even if they do, he'll be on networks. I've noticed lately he's being careful how he answers questions like would lives have been saved if we closed up earlier. He says yes but makes sure not to blame the pres.

 
mr roboto said:
Possibly but I am thinking you are way overconfident on this. We will be told that we need to stay socially distance and they will probably restrict businesses to let allowing more than a certain number of people in a certain size space. Let’s just say I know a lot of folks in the higher levels of large group fitness concepts that are really concerned that they will have to significantly restrict class sizes for the next year.
Click to expand...
I’m saying that the average consumer is going to act like this whole thing never happened. That’s a separate thing from state and local governments placing distancing or class size restrictions on these places.

 
Quint said:
For some, sure. But I believe a majority will carry on like it’s all good (regardless of what new measures are implemented) as soon as possible. 
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As soon as possible = when we have a vaccine or herd immunity or a legit treatment IMO. 

 
mr roboto said:
I disagree. People are fundamentally changed until this is gone. 
Click to expand...
I hope you’re right. My observations from full beaches, parks and trails across the country when people were very clearly being told that this was a bad idea leads me to believe you aren’t.

 
My take is that most people will adapt to a new normal. Masks, sanitizing, distancing. They will require businesses to do the same. 

 
raidergil said:
I'm in & out here so sorry if already mentioned, but has Ozone Therapy been discussed?  Never heard of it until I came across this.  We had trip planned for Ibiza in late June. Not going of course but thought of checking news today.  Seems like the Ozone Therapy is successful in trials for Covid and sounds like it has promising results over the years for stuff but also have to wonder about long term effects: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/320759#safety
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Very, very unlikely to be useful.

Canadian authorities warn chiropractors and naturopaths against making false COVID-19 claims

Patton’s “ozone therapy” is absolute quackery. Per FDA regulations, ozone is toxic, potentially dangerous, and has no known useful medical application. Yet, “ozone therapy” like that advertised by Patton is used by naturopaths for all sorts of maladies. According to ex-naturopath Britt Hermes,

Licensed naturopaths market ozone gas for just about anything. I have seen ozone advertised by naturopaths for chronic diseases, cancer treatment, Lyme disease, viral infections, chronic fatigue syndrome, autoimmune diseases, “detoxification,” and to “boost the immune system.”
Click to expand...

 
cap'n grunge said:
IIRC Bill Gates was bankrolling the immediate production of something like 7 different vaccines and they would start producing them immediately even before testing was done to cut months off the time a vaccine would be ready. Not sure if this was one of them.
Click to expand...
Awesome 

 
cap'n grunge said:
IIRC Bill Gates was bankrolling the immediate production of something like 7 different vaccines and they would start producing them immediately even before testing was done to cut months off the time a vaccine would be ready. Not sure if this was one of them.
Click to expand...
I believe he was bankrolling the building of the facilities for the 7 companies

 
snore said:
This lady says 80% chance by September/Autumn if everything breaks just right.  I dunno. I will let others here pick it apart. 
 

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-vaccine-could-ready-september-113943816.html
Click to expand...


Capella said:
But think about how long it will take for mass production. 
Click to expand...


cap'n grunge said:
IIRC Bill Gates was bankrolling the immediate production of something like 7 different vaccines and they would start producing them immediately even before testing was done to cut months off the time a vaccine would be ready. Not sure if this was one of them.
Click to expand...
If they’re successful with a vaccine it will certainly take a while to scale it up, but think of the global sigh of relief that will be exhaled as we wait for it to come to scale. Smart mitigation while we wait would certainly allow for more “opening up” to happen wisely.

 
Bill Gates has just announced that he and his foundation are accelerating the COVID-19 response effort by building factories for all seven of the most promising vaccines currently in development—even though only one or two of them will likely be produced.

Gates discussed the initiative during his at-home interview with The Daily Show’s Trevor Noah this week.

“Because our foundation has such deep expertise in infectious diseases, we’ve thought about the epidemic, we did fund some things to be more prepared, like a vaccine effort,” Gates said. “Our early money can accelerate things.”

Despite how building factories for all seven vaccines in development will likely waste billions of dollars in construction costs, Gates says that having facilities ready for any one of the treatments will likely end up saving thousands of lives in the long run.

RELATED: NBA Players Recovered From COVID-19 Are Donating Plasma to Clinical Trials Helping Sick Patients

“Even though we’ll end up picking at most two of them, we’re going to fund factories for all seven, just so that we don’t waste time in serially saying, ‘OK, which vaccine works?’ and then building the factory,” he said.

In an op-ed that was published in The Washington Post last week, Gates added: “To bring the disease to an end, we’ll need a safe and effective vaccine. If we do everything right, we could have one in less than 18 months—about the fastest a vaccine has ever been developed.

“We can start now by building the facilities where these vaccines will be made. Because many of the top candidates are made using unique equipment, we’ll have to build facilities for each of them, knowing that some won’t get used. Private companies can’t take that kind of risk, but the federal government can. It’s a great sign that the administration made deals this week with at least two companies to prepare for vaccine manufacturing. I hope more deals will follow.

Link

 
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That's 18 months, at best case for a vaccine. At best case. How long before there are 300 million+ vaccines for just the US and Billions for world wide use?

 
Capella said:
Read an article where some scientist (I think) said concerts and sporting events won’t return until the fall.............of 2021. 
 

Doesn’t seem sustainable for those industries.  
Click to expand...
@Sand has speculated the same in this thread, and he's kind of/almost a (rocket) scientist, FWIW.

I've mentioned the recent SI article where 2/3rds of respondents say they won't be comfortable at a sporting event until a vaccine has been identified.  I mean, really, if risk still exists, do I want to go to a baseball game and have the money-handling vendor pass my beer through the hands of six other people in my row?  I don't think so!

 
moleculo said:
I think that if we are smart about it, businesses like this can exist.  If you and employees wear masks and gloves when dealing with customers, and limit the number in your shop at a time, i don't see why you couldn't stay in business.

It would take some clever legislation to figure out how to make this work.  I'll decline to post my (political) thoughts on how likely that is.
Click to expand...
Oh I think we can stay in business and survive—but before this pandemic—we were thriving.  I’m almost certain that it will be a while before we can “thrive” again.  Our showroom is 450 square feet and before the pandemic we had 3 people working at any given time—and our entire staff is 6 people.  Our showroom is in the shape of a large rectangle—with two long rows of display cases running down each side. Effectively—there’s an alleyway down the middle of our shop where customers can check out our displays.  If we want to practice proper social distancing standards (which is what we will want to do)—we can’t really have more than 2 customers in our shop at any given time.  That is going to hurt us as we are typically a high volume shop.  

Secondly—we have to look at protecting our business in regards to the employee side of things. We can’t really have 3 people working at the shop at any given time moving forward being that if one infected customer comes in and exposes the staff to the virus—half of our staff would be quarantined for a minimum of 2 weeks. Therefore—we’d have to drop to 2 employees a day—which means that every employee will be making less and working fewer hours.  

Lastly—brick and mortar stores were fighting for margins even before the pandemic.  Now we will have to have reduced customers and we will have to bear the burden of much higher expenses.  We’ll have to supply employees gloves and masks. We’ll also have to have a supply of masks for customers as we’ll want them to be masked up as well.   We’ll have to double or triple the amount of wipes, sanitizer, cleaning supples that we provide.  We’ll have to do a thorough disinfecting/cleaning of the store several times a day and completely wipe down all counters after each customer.  These types of expenses will eat up margins.  Heck—I just purchased an industrial grade uv-c sanitation chamber out of my own pocket so that we can disinfect any watch, piece of jewelry and also sanitize our own tools and instruments to insure the safety of our customers and our employees. I also purchased 5 uv-c lamps out of my pocket so that we can sanitize areas of the shop before opening and after closing to aid in keeping us super sanitized. Essentially—we’ll have to somehow thrive on working with limited volume in regards to clients, and higher overhead—all in an environment that is risky at best.  Seeing 40-60 customers a day when there is a virus out there that could force us to quarantine is scary in and of itself. I’m really hoping that they develop a treatment or vaccine soon. 

 
snore said:
This lady says 80% chance by September/Autumn if everything breaks just right.  I dunno. I will let others here pick it apart. 
 

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-vaccine-could-ready-september-113943816.html
Click to expand...
‘If everything breaks just right’ is the key. SARS is the most comparable virus and they never successfully produced a vaccine. September is a dream date suggested by a researching hoping to get resources put behind her effort. The true best case scenario is December or January with March being more realistic.

 
shader said:
This would destroy much of European soccer. Only the top leagues could survive imo.

NFL could probably miss a year and survive.  
 

Could mlb and nba survive two seasons without games? With guaranteed salaries?  
 
Click to expand...
Without fans in stadiums they could, but not without games. 
 

 
Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

2/12 - 490 reported cases

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead

3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead

3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead

3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead

3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead

4/2 - 932,707 reported cases - 49,664 dead - USA  244,320 cases - 5,897 dead 

4/6 - 1,264,826 reported cases - 71,366 dead - USA 367,004 cases - 10,871 dead

4/7 - 1,349,179 reported cases - 78,703 dead - USA 400,335 cases - 12,841 dead

4/8 - 1,435,929 reported cases - 85,121 dead - USA 434,698 cases - 14,787 dead

4/9 - 1,521,741 reported cases - 92,380 dead - USA 468,566 cases - 16,691 dead - Active USA cases 425,947

4/10 - 1,615,613 reported cases - 99,349 dead - USA 502,036 cases - 18,717 dead - Active USA cases 456,080

4/11 - 1,698,260 reported cases - 105,487 dead - USA 532,879 cases - 20,577 dead - Active USA cases 481,849 

4/12 - 1,770,995 reported cases - 110,906 dead - USA 560,433 cases - 22,115 dead - Active USA cases 505,684

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

 
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