Quint
Footballguy
thanks, i will try if not wrapped up in a project.
and agreed: happy to have Gavin as the governor. curious to see what framework he will reveal as CA works in concert with WA and OR.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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and agreed: happy to have Gavin as the governor. curious to see what framework he will reveal as CA works in concert with WA and OR.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Yes, the steps toward it. Not that it means anything will happen soon. He, gov of OR and WA are going to work together like how NY, NJ, CT, DE, RI are doing.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Looking ahead to some of what might be unveiled...
Oregon's Governor, Kate Brown, has previously mentioned a benchmark of 10 straight days without Covid-19 deaths before opening. Going off current IMHE models, here are when the members of the western states are modeled to begin seeing estimated ranges of zero deaths on the low end...
California - zero to 2 deaths per day beginning May 13th
Oregon - zero to 10 deaths per day beginning May 21st
Washington - zero to 3 deaths per day beginning May 9th
And here are the dates when those 3 states are modeled to have estimated deaths at a flat zero...
California - flat zero deaths per day beginning May 18th
Oregon - flat zero deaths per day beginning June 26th
Washington - flat zero deaths per day beginning May 17th
Going by those estimates and the standard of zero deaths for 10 straight days, we'd project the declarations to end the shutdown to come in these date ranges...
CA: May 23-28
OR: May 31-July 6
WA: May 19-May 27
Let's hope Oregon's current modeling is an outlier. I'm also assuming all the states will wait for all three to record 10 straight days of zero death. If Oregon levels out like CA and WA, then I'd bet the governors are currently floating June 1st in their minds.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
To start to loosen a bit like limiting employees in a non essential biz and customers to be able to social distance and everyone wearing masks is what I'm guessing.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
Jacksonville overdoses up 20% in March.
Some city officials are concerned it’s connected to COVID-19.
“So our concern is, and what we relate to the mayor, is that people you know their doctor’s offices are closed, and pain management clinics are closed and then they’re turning to street drugs to supplement their pain medications. And so I’m just asking people to please you know, please don’t do that," Powers said
Some city officials are concerned it’s connected to COVID-19.
“So our concern is, and what we relate to the mayor, is that people you know their doctor’s offices are closed, and pain management clinics are closed and then they’re turning to street drugs to supplement their pain medications. And so I’m just asking people to please you know, please don’t do that," Powers said
-fish-
Footballguy
I'm not aware of what Newsom has said previously about how he plans to relax restrictions, but Governor Inslee has addressed it several times. One point that is interesting is that Newsom relies on the Johns Hopkins model. Inslee has been using University of Washington's. The UW model is slightly more optimistic, yet Inslee increased lockdown measures even as the measures he had introduced were showing positive results. If he's agreed to a joint approach, it's going to fall on the conservative side.
Since they're taking a joint approach, I expect to see small, slow relaxation of restrictions, which has been what Inslee has consistently said. Inslee said that the first measures would be small things like allowing small social gatherings. We've already called the school year here, so we don't need to worry about that.
We still have no way to do community testing or contact tracing. Unless that happens, we're probably not going to see major changes until June or July. In the meantime I expect that we may see some nonessential businesses allowed to reopen if they can maintain social distancing. Golf, fishing, and some other recreational activities that allow social distancing may reopen.
Since they're taking a joint approach, I expect to see small, slow relaxation of restrictions, which has been what Inslee has consistently said. Inslee said that the first measures would be small things like allowing small social gatherings. We've already called the school year here, so we don't need to worry about that.
We still have no way to do community testing or contact tracing. Unless that happens, we're probably not going to see major changes until June or July. In the meantime I expect that we may see some nonessential businesses allowed to reopen if they can maintain social distancing. Golf, fishing, and some other recreational activities that allow social distancing may reopen.
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JaxBill
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
Do you think this is true, or could it be a gross exaggeration? I keep hearing interviews with doctors talking about how these people are wearing gloves all day and defeating the purpose, but I also see reports on local news lamenting the fact that people are discarding used gloves in grocery store parking lots. Seems like a lot of people are perfectly capable of understanding that they should only be wearing gloves for a limited purpose.
Redwes25
Footballguy
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yeah, my wife (introvert) loves this — except for having the kids and me invading her space.
I’m definitely on the extroverted end of the scale, but really this hasn’t bothered me (yet). I’m on the phone a lot all day, on videoconferences, etc. During the afternoon / evening I hang with the kids or talk to family & friends on the phone. It’s been awesome to connect with old friends, or just get a lot more chances to call my closest friends. Lots of ways to get a social outlet.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
I like this teamwork. The only good thing out of this is how people are coming together to help each other, together as one. I hope this can continue after all this is behind us.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
It’s definitely a solid approach. The virus doesn’t care where a geographic border begins and ends.
Speaking of which, any talk of them including ID, NV and AZ in this?
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Not yet, though it would make sense to include them since as you say, the virus knows no boarders. Get all western states on board.
the moops
Footballguy
What a ####ty litigious society we live in that they felt the need to include "unconscious" in this
Quint
Footballguy
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I’ve seen a pretty significant percentage of people touching their faces with the gloves, touching surfaces like phones, etc that they are likely not wiping down, and doing all sorts of stupid things with their PPE. On the whole I think it’s still probably more beneficial than not, but your average person using PPE with no training and no experience are pretty likely to screw up and do something that risks contamination at some point.
Heck, what I do for a living requires PPE including respirators, gloves, coveralls, etc, for a lot of what I do and even a large percentage of these guys screw it up because they just don’t take it seriously enough or get complacent for just a moment.
I’ve caught myself screwing it up at times too. Grab my keys with my glove covered hand, get in the car, take the gloves off carefully so as to not touch the outside with my bare hands, use hand sanitizer to clean my hands, then reach up and turn my key to start my car (yes my car is old). Suddenly I’ve touched my key with my bare hand after last touching the key with my potentially contaminated glove. Now anything I touch between that key and remembering to sanitize my hands is also potentially cross contaminated. Now I need to make sure I wipe down all of those surfaces as well.
That’s not even mentioning the number of people I see in public places taking a glove off and putting it back on, or pulling down their mask for a moment, or touching their glasses/mask with their gloved hands, etc.
In developing safety programs/plans to mitigate safety risks, there’s a reason that PPE is considered the last option and should be used in conjunction with other measures unless absolutely impossible.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
Clown Car
Footballguy
So the Karen who was so sure she had it last December told our group today that it’s all a ploy for the elite to get more power and money. When I said they already had all that, she said it was a plan of satan to usher in the mark of the beast. Is there really any point in trying with these people?
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Wuhan: Covid can spread 15 ft in the air and stick to soles of shoes. 
cosjobs
Footballguy
I wish I wasn't such a tightwad.
The nearest Spec's with curbside is at Ben White and Mopac. I have an appointment at noon tomorrow to buy a bunch of beer. I'm in good shape on booze and wine, but I sure don't want to run out of beer before July.
leftcoastguy7
Footballguy
CurlyNight
Footballguy
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Quite a few, justaflu bros in AZ. Probably not going to happen
an ongoing issue, is the conflict between populated places, and those less populated it completely makes sense there are 13 confirmed cases in my ‘city’. but I live in SoCal , with an extremely heavy population. I’m chaffing at the bit to get back to normal. I can’t imagine how much worse my cabin fever would be, if I lived in bfe
-fish-
Footballguy
Governors of Arizona and Idaho are Republicans. Although it is possible that they will put public health over politics, I doubt it. Someone with deep pockets might not fund their next campaign if they don't stick with the party line that Democrats are crazy socialists hell bent on the destruction of our country.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
A couple of super spreader events can really skew the numbers. Moreover, three extra days of growth on the exponential part of the curve makes a big difference.Mr Anonymous said:
CurlyNight
Footballguy
4/20 will be interesting in SF...
mr fancypants
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
Do you touch the soles of your shoes often? I know I don'tWuhan: Covid can spread 15 ft in the air and stick to soles of shoes.
proteus126
Footballguy
Pretty easy to do when you are taking your shoes off, unless you are paying attention to what you are doing.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
There is usually no need to elaborate what agent is responsible for viral syndromes, as it typically will not effect management. The goal is to exclude treatable infections due to influenza and bacteria, for which specific antimicrobials are available. Testing for other viruses adds cost without clinical benefit.Mr Anonymous said:
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Not only do I never touch the soles of my shoes, in the highly unlikely event that I did, my very first reaction would be "Ew, gross -- I need to wash my hands."
Touching contaminated things is no big deal. You could literally soak your hands in a big bowl of coronavirus and be perfectly fine, assuming you have healthy skin. Just wash them before touching your face.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Well this will get one of two responses...
1. Don't
2. Try being helpful if you come back.
Given history and the lean of the subject, my money is on the first.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
FWIW, my somewhat informed opinion in response your bullet points:Blick said:
Drug studies never happen quickly, and realistically are unlikely to be a big part in controlling the pandemic.
Masks always worked, both as source control (to prevent spread) and protection. It's hard to prove exactly how well they work for any infection, let alone a novel one. Infection control is an inexact science.
Fomites likely contribute to spread, but the extent is unclear. Refer to above.
It primarily infects elderly and those with chronic medical problems. But if enough people are infected, or you're exposed to a sh!t ton of it (e.g. healthcare workers), you're bound to see some outliers. Plus there may be genetic susceptibility to infection that has yet to be elaborated. Oh yeah, eventually it may mutate to become more virulent.
We need to keep the numbers low until we have widespread access to rapid testing of acute infection and prior exposure (hopefully conferring immunity). Additionally, we need to ramp up the infrastructure for contact tracing, before we open society back up. If we rush this step, we risk setting ourselves back several weeks to months.
And I almost forgot stockpiling PPE, ventilators and training extra medical staff for surges that will invariably occur.
We can stop the virus, but we have to be patient until we have the tools to track and contain it. That's about the best we can do until a vaccine is developed IMO.
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DaVinci
FairTaxguy
msommer
Footballguy
Knowing that and knowing a bit about coronavirus, would you wash your hands after touching the soles of your shoes, or lick them?
proteus126
Footballguy
In the good old days, I don't think I worried about my shoes much at all. Now? Yeah, I have my rituals to keep safe.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
So many Karens out there. And whatever the male Karen is called. I simply questioned a Karen several weeks ago on something that was clearly conspiracy theory material, and she informed me that she had done her research about all this for a long time and referred me to a YouTube link that was like 3 hours long.
She's part of the Q-Anon group or whatever they're called. No thanks, Karen. Anyway, that's when I went to my "don't try to reason, only reply with facts/links" strategy. It works well! Effectively shuts down most discussions. 
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Yep. Gaming the system and individual exceptionalism are too ingrained in American culture. Plus we distrust and disrespect authority.The Commish said:
