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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)

FWIW, my somewhat informed opinion in response your bullet points:

Drug studies never happen quickly, and realistically are unlikely to be a big part in controlling the pandemic.

Masks always worked, both as source control (to prevent spread) and protection. It's hard to prove exactly how well they work for any infection, let alone a novel one. Infection control is an inexact science.

Fomites likely contribute to spread, but the extent is unclear. Refer to above.

It primarily infects elderly and those with chronic medical problems. But if enough people are infected, or you're exposed to a sh!t ton of it (e.g. healthcare workers), you're bound to see some outliers. Plus there may be genetic susceptibility to infection that has yet to be elaborated. Oh yeah, eventually it may mutate to become more virulent.

We need to keep the numbers low until we have access to widespread rapid testing of acute infection and prior exposure (hopefully conferring immunity). Additionally, we need to ramp up the infrastructure for contact tracing before we open society back up. If we rush this step, we risk setting ourselves back several weeks to months.

We can stop the virus, but we have to patient until we have the tools to track and contain it. That's about the best we can do until a vaccine is developed IMO.
Man you had me right up to the bolded. Nothing that I've seen in the short 55 years I've lived on this planet has convinced me that we, as Americans, as we are currently constituted, have the ability to be patient for the length of time this will require. Some will, most won't. It's already happening and we are starting week 3  :(

 
:lmao:

Well this will get one of two responses...

1. Don't

2. Try being helpful if you come back. 

Given history and the lean of the subject, my money is on the first.
Eh, not my board of course, but a somewhat reasonable answer to a reasonable question is fine if it is left at that. Now, if people start arguing with him or he keeps arguing that opinion and it becomes a political conversation in this thread, that's the issue. But I didn't know that those two states had Republican governors. His last sentence is mostly political opinion but not the worst "violation" we've had in this thread. 

 
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So many Karens out there. And whatever the male Karen is called. I simply questioned a Karen several weeks ago on something that was clearly conspiracy theory material, and she informed me that she had done her research about all this for a long time and referred me to a YouTube link that was like 3 hours long. :eek:   She's part of the Q-Anon group or whatever they're called. No thanks, Karen. Anyway, that's when I went to my "don't try to reason, only reply with facts/links" strategy. It works well! Effectively shuts down most discussions. :thumbup:  
I believe you are looking for Greg or Chad here but I think it's still open for debate.

 
Man you had me right up to the bolded. Nothing that I've seen in the short 55 years I've lived on this planet has convinced me that we, as Americans, as we are currently constituted, have the ability to be patient for the length of time this will require. Some will, most won't. It's already happening and we are starting week 3  :(
Eh, there are lots of other "free" countries that won't last that much longer than America. Let's not pin everything on our culture like these other cultures are THAT much better. 

But I do agree that we need to start preparing for more civil disobedience by mid-May. Not debate whether it's the right thing to do or anything like that. But discuss what we can do when it happens. 

 
Not only do I never touch the soles of my shoes, in the highly unlikely event that I did, my very first reaction would be "Ew, gross -- I need to wash my hands."
I would guess that we all touch the soles of our shoes far more often than we think. Putting them away. Getting them out of a gym bag. And I doubt many of us actually think it is all that gross

 
The Commish used Florida as an example of non-compliance. He's probably not wrong but pretending that Florida is the problem is not correct, IMO. Human nature is the problem. 
There are examples all over the place. Getting upset because someone pointed out "your" state seems a bit thin skinned

 
I would guess that we all touch the soles of our shoes far more often than we think. Putting them away. Getting them out of a gym bag. And I doubt many of us actually think it is all that gross
I do. :unsure:  I just recall the restrooms I walked in and out of recently (I mean, pre-shelter-at-home). That does the trick. I take mine off with my feet. :lol:  

 
Oh, I didn't realize the feds were responsible for hazard pay. On cursory searching it looks like it's solely up to your employer.
Could be either. Yeah, feds are considering it. Dems are all on board and Trump has made mention of it as well. Where you draw the line is the big question cause if it’s basically everyone still working, it’s going to get prohibitively expensive. If we’re talking employers, it’s a tougher call. Nurses union in Boston just negotiated a $10 an hour hazard pay bonus. Our hospital would probably laugh at us but we’re not unionized. Can’t blame them honestly, we’ve gone from doing 100 cases a day in the OR to 30-40 and from what I’ve heard we’re busier than most right now. 

 
Eh, there are lots of other "free" countries that won't last that much longer than America. Let's not pin everything on our culture like these other cultures are THAT much better. 

But I do agree that we need to start preparing for more civil disobedience by mid-May. Not debate whether it's the right thing to do or anything like that. But discuss what we can do when it happens. 
Yea I agree, didn't mean it that way, anyone that has tasted a little bit of freedom is gonna chaff against this stay at home indefinitely plan we are currently operating under. And I get that we don't really have a plan for this in place, at least yet. I find this troubling but I'll save that for the other forum. Until there is something that says "if we do this or achieve this goal, then this happens".

I think there is some common sense that needs to be exercised here as well. I don't see a good reason a lawn care company is shut down or a roofing company or a house painter. I'm sure there are better examples but now that we know a little more about the transmissibility of the virus, I think we can reasonably open up some areas of commerce that lend themselves to isolation while being performed.

I would guess that we all touch the soles of our shoes far more often than we think. Putting them away. Getting them out of a gym bag. And I doubt many of us actually think it is all that gross
Couple weeks ago the wif mentioned that she saw something recommending taking off shoes before entering the house because of the virus. Just been kicking them off with my feet in the garage but yea, Putting on, taking off shoes, I touch them and don't really think about it.

 
Yesterday a long-time friend of my father-in-law passed away from the Coronavirus.  (He was in his 70's, had Parkinson's and other health issues.)

First time the wife and I have known someone that passed. 

We were already taking this seriously, but this person that we barely know passing seems to bring it closer to home as well.    

 
Oh, I didn't realize the feds were responsible for hazard pay. On cursory searching it looks like it's solely up to your employer.
Yeah, there seems to be a whole lot of blame and expectation placed on the federal government that is really not their role. Our current government is structured in such a way so that the states have quite a bit more power than most federal governments do around the world. We've gradually eroded that balance, but it's still there. Also the whole idea of individual freedom and personal responsibility are a linchpin of our society.

 
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FWIW, my somewhat informed opinion in response your bullet points:

Drug studies never happen quickly, and realistically are unlikely to be a big part in controlling the pandemic.

Masks always worked, both as source control (to prevent spread) and protection. It's hard to prove exactly how well they work for any infection, let alone a novel one. Infection control is an inexact science.

Fomites likely contribute to spread, but the extent is unclear. Refer to above.

It primarily infects elderly and those with chronic medical problems. But if enough people are infected, or you're exposed to a sh!t ton of it (e.g. healthcare workers), you're bound to see some outliers. Plus there may be genetic susceptibility to infection that has yet to be elaborated. Oh yeah, eventually it may mutate to become more virulent.

We need to keep the numbers low until we have widespread access to rapid testing of acute infection and prior exposure (hopefully conferring immunity). Additionally, we need to ramp up the infrastructure for contact tracing, before we open society back up. If we rush this step, we risk setting ourselves back several weeks to months.

And I almost forgot stockpiling PPE, ventilators and training extra staff for surges that will invariably occur.

We can stop the virus, but we have to patient until we have the tools to track and contain it. That's about the best we can do until a vaccine is developed IMO.
Understood for most of these, as its somewhat what we've been told for weeks.  Where we disagree is on the solution.  In a perfect world we would have all those things you say we need (widespread testing, contact tracing, stockpiling PPE, Ventilators, training).  I think we can we can probably stockpile the supplies.  However, how long do you think we need to be patient for widespread testing (for both active cases and immunity) and the infrastructure to contact trace effectively?  I don't think we have that much time.  If we skip robust testing and contact tracing, can we maintain regional hospital capacity while relaxing shut downs by continuing some level of social distancing and PPE use?  Obviously your plan is much more fool proof, but is squarely on the very conservative side of the argument and will keep the country staled much longer.

 
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The Commish used Florida as an example of non-compliance. He's probably not wrong but pretending that Florida is the problem is not correct, IMO. Human nature is the problem. 
Yeah, it’s weird to single out Florida when the state has held up better than many others. Or when the problem was non-Florida people flocking to Florida.

Anyway, yes, human nature is the real culprit here.

 
Great.  More Florida blaming. 

I'm done. You folks believe what you want to believe. 
Hope you don't leave the thread.  I think your Florida updates are a real value added.  I have lots of family down in Florida (mostly Orlando area) so like the Florida updates.  I will say I worry about Florida given the age of so much of the population and a governor who hasn't seemed focused on it but the numbers have been surprisingly good.  

 
The Commish used Florida as an example of non-compliance. He's probably not wrong but pretending that Florida is the problem is not correct, IMO. Human nature is the problem. 
Yeah, it’s weird to single out Florida when the state has held up better than many others. Or when the problem was non-Florida people flocking to Florida.

Anyway, yes, human nature is the real culprit here
IIRC The Commish lives in Florida

 
I’ve seen a pretty significant percentage of people touching their faces with the gloves, touching surfaces like phones, etc that they are likely not wiping down, and doing all sorts of stupid things with their PPE. On the whole I think it’s still probably more beneficial than not, but your average person using PPE with no training and no experience are pretty likely to screw up and do something that risks contamination at some point.

Heck, what I do for a living requires PPE including respirators, gloves, coveralls, etc, for a lot of what I do and even a large percentage of these guys screw it up because they just don’t take it seriously enough or get complacent for just a moment.

I’ve caught myself screwing it up at times too. Grab my keys with my glove covered hand, get in the car, take the gloves off carefully so as to not touch the outside with my bare hands, use hand sanitizer to clean my hands, then reach up and turn my key to start my car (yes my car is old). Suddenly I’ve touched my key with my bare hand after last touching the key with my potentially contaminated glove. Now anything I touch between that key and remembering to sanitize my hands is also potentially cross contaminated. Now I need to make sure I wipe down all of those surfaces as well.

That’s not even mentioning the number of people I see in public places taking a glove off and putting it back on, or pulling down their mask for a moment, or touching their glasses/mask with their gloved hands, etc.

In developing safety programs/plans to mitigate safety risks, there’s a reason that PPE is considered the last option and should be used in conjunction with other measures unless absolutely impossible.
I honestly don't do the gloves when I go out.  I don't have multiple gloves I can just keep switching.  I much prefer having a small container of hand sanitizer where I wash my hands whenever I think I need to.  Tied that with a mask and I feel like I am in pretty good shape as I can wash my hands pretty constantly and much more then being able to change my gloves.  I play this little game in my head where I pretend whatever I touch is raw chicken so mentally keep needing to clean hands as who wants something with raw chicken on it.  Strange but it works for me.

 
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I honestly don't do the gloves when I go out.  I don't have multiple gloves I can just keep switching.  I much prefer having a small container of hand sanitizer where I wash my hands whenever I think I need to.  Tied that with a mask and I feel like I am in pretty good shape as I can wash my hands pretty constantly and much more then being able to change my gloves.  I play this little game in my head where I pretend whatever I touch is raw chicken.  
We don't do gloves either.  We keep hand sanitizer in the car and clorox wipes.  When we get it in the car we sanitize our hands then wipe down anything we touched getting in the car with a clorox wipe.

 
We don't do gloves either.  We keep hand sanitizer in the car and clorox wipes.  When we get it in the car we sanitize our hands then wipe down anything we touched getting in the car with a clorox wipe.
Do this as well.  I am nuts about the touch points in my car (door handles, steering wheel, etc.)

 
I implemented a shoe rule early on in our house.  Take 'em off at the front door so as not to track them around the house and later walk around in socks picking up any potential rona. Probably overkill but it feels cleaner.

 
We don't do gloves either.  We keep hand sanitizer in the car and clorox wipes.  When we get it in the car we sanitize our hands then wipe down anything we touched getting in the car with a clorox wipe.
I only do the gloves when my hands need to heal a bit from my obsessive hand sanitizing. 

I still obsessively sanitize said gloves as if they were my hands. 

 
21st in tests per capita, 11th in active cases, 11th in deaths (22nd in deaths per capita)
That's a misleading stat, imo, when you consider the lower number of cases and deaths. 

If people are relatively healthy and do not have COVID19....and the state has a ton of people....there's going to be a lower number of tests per capita.

Would you prefer them testing a ton more people that are most likely healthy and don't have COVID19? 

 
My town just reopened the gyms. 1 person per 200 feet of space. Most of my town, Logan Utah has never really seemed to take this very seriously. Hope it works out. 

 
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One thing to take into account for Florida however is they are still a few weeks away from what may be their peak.   I do worry a bit about Florida due to their older population.

I did get a kick out of reading on ESPN that WWE is essential business.

And just a random thought/concern is I think we're getting to the point where a major #### show is going to happen as half the country is going to want to open it all up as soon as May 1st (if not sooner!), while half the country is going to want it to NOT open up before June 1st (if not later!).   This is going to cause a major strife, and not to get at all political, but you can see the obvious sides.  I definitely see both sides here, but I really think a lot of people have blinders on and are not willing to accept the other sides concern.  Even in this thread there are many posters that are definitely/vehemently opposed to opening anything up for at least another month, or longer.  I hope these people have empathy for the less well to do.  I know there are people that are struggling to feed their families, and are behind on rents/mortgages and extremely stressed and feeling overwhelmed. I hope those people can understand the implications of opening up the country to early.  I have always been a touch concerned over a class warfare breaking the country apart. I think this issue may exasperate that concern to another degree.  

 
And just a random thought/concern is I think we're getting to the point where a major #### show is going to happen as half the country is going to want to open it all up as soon as May 1st (if not sooner!), while half the country is going to want it to NOT open up before June 1st (if not later!).   
June 1 is still ridiculously over-optimistic IMO.  At this point, I would be very happy with things starting to loosen up in late summer, and I'm not sure I even put the odds of that happening at 50-50.

 
One thing to take into account for Florida however is they are still a few weeks away from what may be their peak.   I do worry a bit about Florida due to their older population.

I did get a kick out of reading on ESPN that WWE is essential business.

And just a random thought/concern is I think we're getting to the point where a major #### show is going to happen as half the country is going to want to open it all up as soon as May 1st (if not sooner!), while half the country is going to want it to NOT open up before June 1st (if not later!).   This is going to cause a major strife, and not to get at all political, but you can see the obvious sides.  I definitely see both sides here, but I really think a lot of people have blinders on and are not willing to accept the other sides concern.  Even in this thread there are many posters that are definitely/vehemently opposed to opening anything up for at least another month, or longer.  I hope these people have empathy for the less well to do.  I know there are people that are struggling to feed their families, and are behind on rents/mortgages and extremely stressed and feeling overwhelmed. I hope those people can understand the implications of opening up the country to early.  I have always been a touch concerned over a class warfare breaking the country apart. I think this issue may exasperate that concern to another degree.  
I've almost completely avoided the PSF version of this thread but I'm :confused: how this is a political thing - except for the fact that for some people everything is.  It's wonderful knowing our 2-party system is so ####ed that a global pandemic has people taking sides.

 
One thing to take into account for Florida however is they are still a few weeks away from what may be their peak.   I do worry a bit about Florida due to their older population.

I did get a kick out of reading on ESPN that WWE is essential business.

And just a random thought/concern is I think we're getting to the point where a major #### show is going to happen as half the country is going to want to open it all up as soon as May 1st (if not sooner!), while half the country is going to want it to NOT open up before June 1st (if not later!).   This is going to cause a major strife, and not to get at all political, but you can see the obvious sides.  I definitely see both sides here, but I really think a lot of people have blinders on and are not willing to accept the other sides concern.  Even in this thread there are many posters that are definitely/vehemently opposed to opening anything up for at least another month, or longer.  I hope these people have empathy for the less well to do.  I know there are people that are struggling to feed their families, and are behind on rents/mortgages and extremely stressed and feeling overwhelmed. I hope those people can understand the implications of opening up the country to early.  I have always been a touch concerned over a class warfare breaking the country apart. I think this issue may exasperate that concern to another degree.  
I don't oppose opening stuff up if there is sufficient testing so we can tamp down local hotspots.  Problem is we are nowhere near that but if we are I am not opposed to it all.  It is something we need to do.  I also think it is a good idea to open up certain areas that have not been hit hard first (if testing is available).  

Living in NYC and seeing how fast this thing can grow out of control  people have to be careful. On March 17th, NYC had 923 cases.   We are about a month later and NYC has over 100k reported cases and has had social distancing going on for awhile with full order effective the night of March 22nd and schools closed since March 16th. Without those orders, I can only imagine what NYC would look like now.  

I worry that people don't realize the true threat of this since it is someplace else and hasn't touched them directly.  This thing can get out of control so quick that we need to be able to know if an area is starting to have infections and we don't have the ability to do that.    

 
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Could be either. Yeah, feds are considering it. Dems are all on board and Trump has made mention of it as well. Where you draw the line is the big question cause if it’s basically everyone still working, it’s going to get prohibitively expensive. If we’re talking employers, it’s a tougher call. Nurses union in Boston just negotiated a $10 an hour hazard pay bonus. Our hospital would probably laugh at us but we’re not unionized. Can’t blame them honestly, we’ve gone from doing 100 cases a day in the OR to 30-40 and from what I’ve heard we’re busier than most right now. 
You can blame them, as I’m certain there’ve been days you worked above and beyond what was expected, with no consideration for extra pay. Moreover, most hospital nowadays run like assembly lines, with profit prioritized over optimal patient care.

If nothing else, I hope this pandemic exposes the dysfunction of our healthcare system.

 
Something I read... Before today’s rally,  S&P was trading at a forward P/E ratio of 17.3, which is above its 5-year average of 16.7 and 10-year average of 15. We are entering first-quarter earnings season, and the “E” in the forward P/E ratio is going to be revised substantially downwards.

So we’re trading around 17.5 P/E. Previous bear markets have bottomed out between 6 (88 crash when interest rates were sky high,) and 10. Cannot fathom the markets settling on forward looking P/E higher than 10 year average, especially since that 10 years was straight line prosperous. 

When earnings come in and analysts adjust forecasts on bottom up models, I think we’ll se lows that are at least 30-40% where we are today. I think it’s likely the market will trade around 17k at some point before we reset for a V shaped recovery and then slow rise over 18-24 months.

This week’s Q1 earnings calls will be telling and I think we’ll see those earnings and bottom up models showing cracks that haven’t been absorbed. 

Of course, could be wrong and markets are up 2+% today. I cannot imagine a bull market trading at these inflated P/Es, especially because there just has to be uncertainly and disruption around E that will be reflected at some point.
You can pretty much ignore things like P/E as investors aren't looking for good investments like they do in normal circumstances. 

Again, the Fed is printing and buying at a level that it never has before. Those who now have cash in hand due to the Fed's buying now have to decide what to do with that cash. What assets look good right now? Answer: Nothing... at least by normal circumstances. So do they sit on the cash? Maybe... but that is just as risky given central banks around the world are printing like drunken sailors. 

This results in purchasing of stocks just for the sole reason of not sitting on too much cash. 

 
That's a misleading stat, imo, when you consider the lower number of cases and deaths. 

If people are relatively healthy and do not have COVID19....and the state has a ton of people....there's going to be a lower number of tests per capita.

Would you prefer them testing a ton more people that are most likely healthy and don't have COVID19? 
Yes.  I'd prefer we have the testing capacity to test our entire population basically every 2-3 weeks.

 
It's so hard to just reply without looking like I'm trying to pick a fight, because honestly I'm not.

But saying opening June 1st is ridiculously over optimistic to me sounds callous to the 35, 40, 50 million unemployed with families to feed.  And yes, the government is helping out, but I don't think you are understanding the backlog and how this help is not really coming through.  Nor do you understand just how many companies will be bankrupted and jobs not returning.  I see the burden being born way more on the poor of this country by locking it down for 3+ months.  And I know you'll say lives are more important, and I'm not arguing that fact, but a 30 year old person in relatively good health with 2 children to feed is not going to be at high risk.

And yes, I full agree we need wide spread testing, but I also believe that the spread is always going to be faster, more significant in NYC than it is in Tacoma Washington.  I think it's impossible to weigh everything accurately. 

I just really think that there is going to be a massive divide between the open it up and the don't open it up crowd here very soon and frankly I think things could get ugly. I just hope both sides can empathize with the other in a peaceful manner.

 
Supreme Court will hear arguments remotely in May, for the first time ever. Live audio will be available to the general public. :popcorn:  

https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/04/court-sets-cases-for-may-telephone-arguments-will-make-live-audio-available/
Prop bet for the first "and BABA BOOEY to y'all"

I worry that people don't realize the true threat of this since it is someplace else and has touched them directly.  This thing can get out of control so quick that we need to be able to know if an area is starting to have infections and we don't have the ability to do that.    
:goodposting: You're at proverbial ground zero (again). You see it up close and personal everyday. I live in Anytown USA population 20,000. We've had about 30 cases here I think? No deaths. On the weekends you'd think it was party at the local Lowes with all the people. Until it shows up in your backyard, people won't appreciate the gravity/severity of this thing.

 
Governors of Arizona and Idaho are Republicans.  Although it is possible that they will put public health over politics, I doubt it.   Someone with deep pockets might not fund their next campaign if they don't stick with the party line that Democrats are crazy socialists hell bent on the destruction of our country.
No obvious political slants are allowed in the FFA.

 
It's so hard to just reply without looking like I'm trying to pick a fight, because honestly I'm not.

But saying opening June 1st is ridiculously over optimistic to me sounds callous to the 35, 40, 50 million unemployed with families to feed.  And yes, the government is helping out, but I don't think you are understanding the backlog and how this help is not really coming through.  Nor do you understand just how many companies will be bankrupted and jobs not returning.  I see the burden being born way more on the poor of this country by locking it down for 3+ months.  And I know you'll say lives are more important, and I'm not arguing that fact, but a 30 year old person in relatively good health with 2 children to feed is not going to be at high risk.

And yes, I full agree we need wide spread testing, but I also believe that the spread is always going to be faster, more significant in NYC than it is in Tacoma Washington.  I think it's impossible to weigh everything accurately. 

I just really think that there is going to be a massive divide between the open it up and the don't open it up crowd here very soon and frankly I think things could get ugly. I just hope both sides can empathize with the other in a peaceful manner.
Very good posting. 

 
No worries.  Florida is doing great.  3rd in tests administered, 8th in cases, 11th in deaths, etc.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Like you say, people can believe what they want.
Yep. The media wants so bad for spring breakers to be blamed for stuff. Just google "florida spring breakers coronavirus"

You get the cell phone data, the kids that got sick in tampa(no update on their severity of course), you get the NYT article about the lgbt festival (where older people got sick) but what you arent getting is a lot of stories about actual outbreaks or severe symptoms involving college students that were on spring break. If those things existed I think they would be national news.

Obviously could be those stories stayed local or maybe they are national and I havent seen them yet, but that seems very weird then that the NYT would have to use data from a non spring break event to write their story about spring break being a disaster.

 

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