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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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1 hour ago, Navin Johnson said:

Germany traced the infection of patient zero to patient one via passing a salt shaker in the company canteen.

This sounds like total bs

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2 minutes ago, need2know said:
1 hour ago, Navin Johnson said:

Germany traced the infection of patient zero to patient one via passing a salt shaker in the company canteen.

This sounds like total bs

:confused:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-defences-i/pass-the-salt-the-minute-details-that-helped-germany-build-virus-defenses-idUSKCN21R1DB

Not sure why you think they would need to make this up

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3 minutes ago, need2know said:

This sounds like total bs

Honestly having been to Germany and working with Germans daily, I believe this 100%. They are a different breed. 

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3 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Honestly having been to Germany and working with Germans daily, I believe this 100%. They are a different breed. 

Their numbers match up with ours almost identically in the early going. It's not dumb luck that ours have spiraled out of control while theirs have been pretty well contained.

 

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17 hours ago, FBG26 said:

There has been some discussion about whether the death count is overstated or understated. At least in the UK, the death count only includes deaths occurring at a hospital. Maybe everybody here already assumed that to to be the case, but I found it interesting. 

link 

 

My thought is all over the place deaths are understated.  Too many people in every country at every level of government are too invested in the numbers being lower IMO.

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, shader said:

And hasn't it bee seen that Dewine did a pretty good job and was quick to react to a lot of this (obviously don't want to get too political on this...seems I have read good things about him).  EDIT:  I see several have commented that he has been doing well.  Good to know.

Also... :wall: at people gathering like that.

Edited by sho nuff

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25 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Thanks for posting. I guess I don't understand the "we can never do this, we're Americans!" argument against what it's going to take via testing and surveillance. If that's what we have to do, then that's what we do. When the alternative is millions of deaths or indefinite stay at home orders, it's baffling that people are like "I just can't see us doing this". F that! Download the app and ramp up the tests. Let's do this. 

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9 hours ago, lakerstan said:

Also, the U.S. represents only 4.5% of the world’s population, yet has 29% of the world’s cases.  Something’s funky.

We're being told that we're doing more testing than anywhere else in the world.  Makes sense that more tests = more "provable" cases

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19 minutes ago, DaVinci said:

:rolleyes: My link

Considering that being placed in a managerial position requires a certain amount of experience and that as workers get older they tend to rise to positions of increasing power or skill, it is absolutely true that a significant portion of managers will be over 50 and/or have health issues.

I dont doubt plenty of managers are over 50.

I just dont believe we would use 50 as the cutoff. 

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2 minutes ago, Statorama said:

We're being told that we're doing more testing than anywhere else in the world.  Makes sense that more tests = more "provable" cases

On a per capita basis, Germany is doing more than 2x and with a similar timeline and better contact tracing still has 1/4 of the infections.

 

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2 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Thanks for posting. I guess I don't understand the "we can never do this, we're Americans!" argument against what it's going to take via testing and surveillance. If that's what we have to do, then that's what we do. When the alternative is millions of deaths or indefinite stay at home orders, it's baffling that people are like "I just can't see us doing this". F that! Download the app and ramp up the tests. Let's do this. 

So serious plans call for establishing a massive techno tracing state but regular people are told not to wear N95 masks because there isn’t enough. Maybe just start with simple stuff first?

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52 minutes ago, JAA said:

Not trying to be political, but this is capitalism as we have allowed it to grow and morph.  Capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good.

How on earth is this not trying to be political?

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4 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

So serious plans call for establishing a massive techno tracing state but regular people are told not to wear N95 masks because there isn’t enough. Maybe just start with simple stuff first?

Downloading an app isn't simple? How many people have downloaded Zoom since this started?

Testing on the other hand will take time to ramp up, obviously. But the article (which was an opinion piece) was quoting poll numbers about surveillance and how Americans don't agree with it. Well, do we agree with a virus that spreads like crazy and kills people more? I just find that side of the argument absurd.

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15 hours ago, nirad3 said:

I think I've only got it once, too.  When my kids were real little and the wife and I didn't want to get them sick.  Honestly, I don't think I've EVER had the flu.  Big-time knock on wood.

Ditto.  Actually, I’ve never had either one, that I can recall.  Definitely never the flu shot.  May have had the flu as a young kid, but not that I can remember.  

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Just now, rockaction said:
53 minutes ago, JAA said:

Not trying to be political, but this is capitalism as we have allowed it to grow and morph.  Capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good.

How on earth is this not trying to be political?

Because no political party owns capitalism?

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1 minute ago, JAA said:

Because no political party owns capitalism?

File under: political organization of the economy. It's inherently a political choice to organize resources in a certain way or another.

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57 minutes ago, JAA said:

Not trying to be political, but this is capitalism as we have allowed it to grow and morph.  Capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good.

At risk of clarifying what I'm sure you meant, let's be a bit clearer:

Unfettered capitalism serves both the shareholders AND the common good...EXCEPT when those two come into conflict, then it serves the shareholders at the EXPENSE OF the common good.

or to put it more simply:

Capitalism (with proper guardrails) serves the common good.

The devil in the details is what guardrails need to be put in place and when.  That's what needs to be discussed and debated.  And lest anyone think I am arguing in favor of re-opening the country before cases are near zero and aggressive contact tracing is in place, I am certainly not.  

I just think we need to be clearer with our language and as such, I don't think a statement such as "capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good" is very helpful.

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Just now, rockaction said:
Just now, JAA said:

Because no political party owns capitalism?

File under: political organization of the economy. It's inherently a political choice to organize resources in a certain way or another.

File under:  @rockaction is not discussing but arguing.  Thanks, but ill pass on this one :bye:

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2 minutes ago, Navin Johnson said:

On a per capita basis, Germany is doing more than 2x and with a similar timeline and better contact tracing still has 1/4 of the infections.

 

The OP was asking why US had more reported cases.  If Country A tests 200 million and Country B tests 20 million, Country A will likely have more stated cases.

There's also a certain level of trust involved with the numbers coming out of each country.  If you want to tap your inner Alex Jones there's plenty of theories about why countries would present agenda-driven data.  But don't tap your inner Alex Jones.

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

File under: political organization of the economy. It's inherently a political choice to organize resources in a certain way or another.

Not if both sides are making the same choices

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40 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Honestly having been to Germany and working with Germans daily, I believe this 100%. They are a different breed. 

Ha!  Have been thinking this for awhile but haven't really known how to express it.  So here goes, and apologies in advance if this is stereotypical/offensive:

If I told you 6 months ago that there'd be a global pandemic and that:

  • 2 countries would do a very good job
  • 3 countries would perform poorly
  • 2 countries would lie about how they performed

And then I gave you,the below list of countries:

  • Russia
  • South Korea
  • France
  • Iran
  • Spain
  • Germany
  • Italy

I'd bet most people here could have easily categorized each country 100% correctly.

Do people disagree? 

Do people find that surprising? Depressing?

Should I be banned?

Is this the stupidest post you have ever read?

Should I have kept this thought to myself?

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So we are a month into this and what has really changed? Some potential treatments that might work? Better testing coming soon? The timeline to a vaccine got shortened by a month?

But as far as “opening things up” goes, what would be different than a month ago? Hand washing and social distancing? Phone calls and foot lockers? Please tell me we have something more. 

The added step that seems to be working some is having people stay home. But without other medical advances, what would lead to the conclusion that this thing won’t rekindle and start replicating all over the place once people start interacting again?

Without limiting gatherings to a few people and dramatically limiting travel, I don’t see how the virus doesn’t just keep on rolling without medical and scientific intervention.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Statorama said:

The OP was asking why US had more reported cases.  If Country A tests 200 million and Country B tests 20 million, Country A will likely have more stated cases.

There's also a certain level of trust involved with the numbers coming out of each country.  If you want to tap your inner Alex Jones there's plenty of theories about why countries would present agenda-driven data.  But don't tap your inner Alex Jones.

I think due to the containment and tracking protocols in Germany they have been able to better discern who needs to be tested and who doesn't.  They have a better handle on the actual numbers than the US where it has been pretty much a cluster####.  To attribute the higher numbers in the US to our commitment to testing is misguided at best.

Edited by Navin Johnson
the italicized.
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Just now, Morton Muffley said:
58 minutes ago, JAA said:

Not trying to be political, but this is capitalism as we have allowed it to grow and morph.  Capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good.

At risk of clarifying what I'm sure you meant, let's be a bit clearer:

Unfettered capitalism serves both the shareholders AND the common good...EXCEPT when those two come into conflict, then it serves the shareholders at the EXPENSE OF the common good.

or to put it more simply:

Capitalism (with proper guardrails) serves the common good.

The devil in the details is what guardrails need to be put in place and when.  That's what needs to be discussed and debated.  And lest anyone think I am arguing in favor of re-opening the country before cases are near zero and aggressive contact tracing is in place, I am certainly not.  

I just think we need to be clearer with our language and as such, I don't think a statement such as "capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good" is very helpful.

Thanks for the reply.

I agree that capitalism could work for the common good if guardrails where in place.  Unfortunately, they are not nor do I believe most people understand why they should want them.

Example 1:  Capitalism currently servers the shareholders.  Shareholders used to be long-term minded investors who wanted to be a part in the growth of companies.  The growth of companies used to be driven through hiring people and growing a localized workforce.  That served the common good.  Today, shareholders are driven by microsecond deviations of 1/8th percentage points.  If their point drops, they sell millions upon millions of shares of companies that employ people.  People cannot respond to this level of change.  Also, IIRC 70% of all stock is not owned by individuals.  Think about that.

Example 2:  We as a people want and expect our citizens to have a savings account and plan for "when things get tough".  While the vast majority of Americans dont have these savings, if they lose their job or have an unexpected cost they could lose their house, car, everything.  They may need to declare bankruptcy, get their future wages garnished, stay with family/friends until its all recovered from.  Now - look at corporations.  Our stock market drops like 20-30% in 1 month, just 1 month, and now all corporations need to layoff millions of workers.  We have the largest unemployment numbers in like forever.  Why is it we expect our citizens to have "savings accounts for tough times", but we dont expect our corporations to have the same protections?  Where is the corporations plans?  Why did they not prepare for hardship or the unexpected expense?  Where was this future planning when things were good?  Why is it we privatize profits for our corporations and shareholders, but we socialize losses for the same corporations through bailouts which as we all well know will ultimately will be paid by citizens taxes?  Why is this way?  Why is it when things are good execs and shareholders are rewarded (remember, shareholders are for the most part not people) but when things are bad, the citizens need to pay for it?

Once you understand the system and how is is organized, its easy to see, plainly easy IMO, that it does not benefit the common good.

None of what I have said above is political.

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

So we are a month into this and what has really changed? Some potential treatments that might work? Better testing coming soon? The timeline to a vaccine got shortened by a month?

But as far as “opening things up” goes, what would be different than a month ago? Hand washing and social distancing? Phone calls and foot lockers? Please tell me we have something more. 

The added step that seems to be working some is having people stay home. But without other medical advances, what would lead to the conclusion that this thing won’t rekindle and start replicating all over the place once people start interacting again?

Without limiting gatherings to a few people and dramatically limiting travel, I don’t see how the virus doesn’t just keep on rolling without medical and scientific intervention.

The early Ferguson model had 2.2 million US deaths with full lockdown / social distancing / hygiene factored in.   He's since revised that model.

To me, the biggest change has been in the predictions/models from Team Apocalypse.

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5 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

Ha!  Have been thinking this for awhile but haven't really known how to express it.  So here goes, and apologies in advance if this is stereotypical/offensive:

If I told you 6 months ago that there'd be a global pandemic and that:

  • 2 countries would do a very good job
  • 3 countries would perform poorly
  • 2 countries would lie about how they performed

And then I gave you,the below list of countries:

  • Russia
  • South Korea
  • France
  • Iran
  • Spain
  • Germany
  • Italy

I'd bet most people here could have easily categorized each country 100% correctly.

Do people disagree? 

Do people find that surprising? Depressing?

Should I be banned?

Is this the stupidest post you have ever read?

Should I have kept this thought to myself?

well stated!

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Just now, Statorama said:

The early Ferguson model had 2.2 million US deaths with full lockdown / social distancing / hygiene factored in.   He's since revised that model.

To me, the biggest change has been in the predictions/models from Team Apocalypse.

Can you share that original model?  All the ones I have seen show those numbers with no NPI in place.

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1 minute ago, Navin Johnson said:

I think due to the containment protocols in Germany they have been able to better discern who needs to be tested and who doesn't.  They have a better handle on the actual numbers than the US where it has been pretty much a cluster####.  To attribute the higher numbers in the US to our commitment to testing is misguided at best.

I'll try one more time.  If I have a group of 10 people with 9 apples and you have a group of two people with two apples, while your group has more apples per capita my group has more apples.

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Just now, Statorama said:

I'll try one more time.  If I have a group of 10 people with 9 apples and you have a group of two people with two apples, while your group has more apples per capita my group has more apples.

That analogy is worse than your original argument.

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1 minute ago, Big League Chew said:

so after all this coronavirus is gone and we are back to normal. What do you think will happen with Hand shakes?

Have heard this conversation as well...Im sure a large amount will slowly get back to doing this as a greeting hear.  But there will be people that opt not to.  Unfortunately, some that opt not to will be considered rude by some IMO.  Really that seems to be an American problem (not fully...but other cultures have their own greetings).

Im thinking a good head nod works well. No way Americans take to bowing to each other.

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2 minutes ago, Big League Chew said:

so after all this coronavirus is gone and we are back to normal. What do you think will happen with Hand shakes?

I think it will cause some minor social problems. Some people will still prefer to not shake hands. Others will get offended when people refuse to shake hands. 

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Is it possible to have the flu and COVID-19  at the same time?

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, eoMMan said:

Is it possible to have the flu and COVID-19  at the same time?

ive heard if you test positive for flu they wont test for covid. so im guessing no?

Edited by Big League Chew

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1 minute ago, eoMMan said:

Is it possible to have the flu and COVID-19  at the same time?

 

Just now, Big League Chew said:

ive heard if you test positive for flu they wont test for covid. so im guessing no?

Just because they won't test you doesn't mean you don't have it.  I see no reason why one person couldn't be inflicted with two viruses simultaneously.

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5 minutes ago, JAA said:

Why is it we privatize profits for our corporations and shareholders, but we socialize losses for the same corporations through bailouts which as we all well know will ultimately will be paid by citizens taxes?  Why is this way?  Why is it when things are good execs and shareholders are rewarded (remember, shareholders are for the most part not people) but when things are bad, the citizens need to pay for it?

Don't forget that corporations have access to a slew of tax loopholes, such as abatements, etc... that no mom & pop business competing with them could ever obtain. Not to mention the buying power.

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Posted (edited)

Can anyone think of a way to prevent bad incentives if the government eventually issues "immunity cards" that allow people to go back to work, etc.?

I feel like this could be at least part of how we get out of this mess, but I also feel like it would incentivize younger healthier people to deliberately get infected, which would therefore make the virus spread more rapidly to the at-risk groups, crashing our hospital system again.  

 

Edited by fatguyinalittlecoat
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2 minutes ago, Statorama said:

The early Ferguson model had 2.2 million US deaths with full lockdown / social distancing / hygiene factored in.   He's since revised that model.

To me, the biggest change has been in the predictions/models from Team Apocalypse.

The math in all of this has constantly been fuzzy. In the U.S. with 95% of people sheltering in place, we are almost at 2K deaths a day. If we were all out and about, without any other medical or scientific intervention, why would we expect the number of fatalities to go down? Because we got healthier? Because we got immunity? Would staying six feet apart, washing hands, and wearing masks cut the number of fatalities down to only a handful?

My point being, either we all have to stay cooped up, there needs to be a vaccine, or there needs to be a better way to sort the healthy fro the sick. Short of that, there could months with 40-50K fatalities per month. 

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Just now, Galileo said:

 

Just because they won't test you doesn't mean you don't have it.  I see no reason why one person couldn't be inflicted with two viruses simultaneously.

very possible, just remembering what i read a few weeks ago

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Just saw a news article on a local news site saying that Florida's agriculture industry is getting slammed by this pandemic as well, since they sell to schools and theme parks, which are all closed. They're basically leaving that stuff to rot, and to add to Florida's issues: agriculture is the 2nd largest portion of the economy here, after tourism. Since that's already pretty much shut down, and since we grow produce in the "winter" here(yes, it can get too hot to grow stuff here), this happened at a really bad time, and farmers are losing millions of dollars. Just an unseen side effect of the pandemic.

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Just now, Navin Johnson said:

That analogy is worse than your original argument.

It's as simple as I could make it.  [More people tested = more cases than the places where there were less people tested] didn't seem to sink in.

It's not an argument, it's just basic statistics.  I'm not saying one country has done better than another.  There will be plenty of time for all of that ankle biting once this is over.

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29 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Downloading an app isn't simple? How many people have downloaded Zoom since this started?

Testing on the other hand will take time to ramp up, obviously. But the article (which was an opinion piece) was quoting poll numbers about surveillance and how Americans don't agree with it. Well, do we agree with a virus that spreads like crazy and kills people more? I just find that side of the argument absurd.

Ah, we'll just tell Facebook to slip in a few permissions updates.

 

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Just now, Kal El said:

Just saw a news article on a local news site saying that Florida's agriculture industry is getting slammed by this pandemic as well, since they sell to schools and theme parks, which are all closed. They're basically leaving that stuff to rot, and to add to Florida's issues: agriculture is the 2nd largest portion of the economy here, after tourism. Since that's already pretty much shut down, and since we grow produce in the "winter" here(yes, it can get too hot to grow stuff here), this happened at a really bad time, and farmers are losing millions of dollars. Just an unseen side effect of the pandemic.

This seems like it should be able to be solved.  People are still eating food now, they're just doing it at home instead of at school or at Disneyworld.  Shouldn't there be an increase in demand for these agricultural products in supermarkets and takeout food?

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So ended the first month in the Age of Distancing, also known as the Great Isolation. Web cams were humming, the “curve” was being monitored and hands were kept clean. And the people stayed home, adapted their habits and looked into the future with a mixture of curiosity and concern.

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21 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

So we are a month into this and what has really changed? Some potential treatments that might work? Better testing coming soon? The timeline to a vaccine got shortened by a month?

But as far as “opening things up” goes, what would be different than a month ago? Hand washing and social distancing? Phone calls and foot lockers? Please tell me we have something more. 

The added step that seems to be working some is having people stay home. But without other medical advances, what would lead to the conclusion that this thing won’t rekindle and start replicating all over the place once people start interacting again?

Without limiting gatherings to a few people and dramatically limiting travel, I don’t see how the virus doesn’t just keep on rolling without medical and scientific intervention.

For me the main concern has always been overwhelming our medical system. It appears as if we have prevented that and can now begin discussing slowly opening back up, with the help of testing.

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51 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Thanks for posting. I guess I don't understand the "we can never do this, we're Americans!" argument against what it's going to take via testing and surveillance. If that's what we have to do, then that's what we do. When the alternative is millions of deaths or indefinite stay at home orders, it's baffling that people are like "I just can't see us doing this". F that! Download the app and ramp up the tests. Let's do this. 

On 9/10/2001 pretty much nobody would have expected what has occurred in air travel but it happened pretty quickly, we accepted it and now it is part of life. We, as Americans, will adapt. Kinda what we do and partly what makes us great. Look at the response to this virus? We're compressing years long timelines into months/weeks. Pretty impressive stuff is going on right now if you stop and look around.

39 minutes ago, rockaction said:

How on earth is this not trying to be political?

Jeez the political cops are out early. Dude made a statement, ease up

27 minutes ago, JAA said:

File under:  @rockaction is not discussing but arguing.  Thanks, but ill pass on this one :bye:

:goodposting:

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