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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

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That said, some mildly encouraging news on covid worldometers in that U.S. new cases are around 25,000.  The recent trend had been 32-35,000.  

Worldwide, Russia still expanding with another 15% new cases today (article on CNN about Russia, too).  India cases up 10% (total is over 11K), and Bangladesh still popping with about 20% growth (lower total a little over 1K).  Still around 10% new cases in many Middle East countries.

--

Article on CNN regarding how some universities are exploring the option of not opening up campuses until 2021.  Presumably, fall courses would be on-line.  (I'm an accounting professor at a smaller Catholic school.)  The biggest challenge here would be for new freshmen, for whom college can be a difficult adjustment anyway.  It could become a real Catch-22 for those young adults - start college on-line and try to navigate the new environment in that manner, or take a gap year (and do what in a down economy?).
If kindergarteners can figure out on-line schooling, incoming freshman should be okay. 

 
The political aspects of the coronavirus in the USA are undeniable and are a huge part of the story.  It's natural for that to leak into this forum from time to time.  Most of us do a good job of not allowing it to.  I think we all know that politics is toxic and that ultimately it's a good thing to keep it out of this thread.  But it's also a big part of the story, so I appreciate the slack that the moderators have given us.  Gentle reminders when we go too far.
Thanks.  Edited my offending post accordingly as I was trying to acknowledge the reality without encouraging political debate.  Nevertheless, have removed language that may walk too close to that line.

And fwiw, appreciate the call out and the leeway.

 
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
I personally know about 10 people who have/had it. One person who died and another on a ventilator.  Also heard about many others who have it who I don’t personally know. I live in Brooklyn so like you it is very prevalent and both mine and my wife’s family all live in NY/NJ so have a ton of connections to the area. 

 
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The political aspects of the coronavirus in the USA are undeniable and are a huge part of the story.  It's natural for that to leak into this forum from time to time.  Most of us do a good job of not allowing it to.  I think we all know that politics is toxic and that ultimately it's a good thing to keep it out of this thread.  But it's also a big part of the story, so I appreciate the slack that the moderators have given us.  Gentle reminders when we go too far.
Not remotely. It's only a "big part of the story" because people just can't help themselves. Everyone wants to get their cheap shots in on Trump. The slack is only in one direction - the left, so of course you appreciate it. Any push back or counter arguments or defense of Trump and out comes the "be cool in here". 

 
I really don't understand why people want politics in this thread so damn bad when there's an entire freaking forum for it.
My posting what Newsom's plans are for CA is not politics. People who don't want to read that thread want to know what states are doing to open up. Not politics at all. Newsom refuses to respond on political questions so you won't find any in his responses.

 
I really don't understand why people want politics in this thread so damn bad when there's an entire freaking forum for it.
My posting what Newsom's plans are for CA is not politics. People who don't want to read that thread want to know what states are doing to open up. Not politics at all. Newsom refuses to respond on political questions so you won't find any in his responses.
Completely agree. My mini rant wasn't directed at you. In fact, your post is a good example imo of posting something about an elected official, in either party, without being political. Cheers.

 
Well, I see from the Worldometer figures that the latest installment of "WTF is up with France?" has been uploaded for all of us to ponder.

I swear they are using a random number generator for their daily updates!  It truly is bizarre.

 
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Right, but that’s a whole other league of gene sequencing, right?

We have a lot of familiarity with the other 6 Coronavirus that proceeded SARS-CoV2. I haven’t read anything that indicates this is going to be more complex than SARS or MERS, and the mutations are only like 2 per month so it should be effective for some time as the basic structure hasn’t been observed to change.

(layman’s read on it, feel free to correct)
Coronaviruses have big genomes, among the largest of RNA viruses, and much bigger than HIV. There is no precedent for an effective coronavirus vaccine, and prior trials for a SARS  vaccine ended up killing animals.

Edited...the animal trial went awry, with concerns the same would happen in humans. In the meantime, NPI contained the original SARS, funding dried up, etc.

 
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Highest death toll in the US today with a few states to still report according to Worldometers.  Though looks like case numbers will be below prior peak.  
Tuesday bump.  Happened last week and the week before.  My theory is that there are some hospitals that do their weekend reporting on Monday and rhat doesn't make it into the ***official*** tally until Tuesday.

 
Highest death toll in the US today with a few states to still report according to Worldometers.  Though looks like case numbers will be below prior peak.  
Also, deaths is a lagging indicator. IIRC,  it was about a week, give or take, between the case peak and fatality peak for China and Italy.  We should have expected deaths to peak today... hopefully this is the high water mark.

 
Not remotely. It's only a "big part of the story" because people just can't help themselves. Everyone wants to get their cheap shots in on Trump. The slack is only in one direction - the left, so of course you appreciate it. Any push back or counter arguments or defense of Trump and out comes the "be cool in here". 
I never got political in my response.  I was letting you know why politics (R or D) is a natural part of the conversation.  You went straight political in your response and are accusing people of taking Trump shots.

 
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Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

4/6 - 1,264,826 reported cases - 71,366 dead - USA 367,004 cases - 10,871 dead

4/9 - 1,521,741 reported cases - 92,380 dead - USA 468,566 cases - 16,691 dead - Active USA cases 425,947

4/10 - 1,615,613 reported cases - 99,349 dead - USA 502,036 cases - 18,717 dead - Active USA cases 456,080

4/11 - 1,698,260 reported cases - 105,487 dead - USA 532,879 cases - 20,577 dead - Active USA cases 481,849 

4/12 - 1,770,995 reported cases - 110,906 dead - USA 560,433 cases - 22,115 dead - Active USA cases 505,684

4/13 - 1,841,688 reported cases - 116,277 dead - USA 586,941 cases - 23,640 dead - Active USA cases 526,353

4/14 - 1,915,109 reported cases - 123,224 dead - USA 613,624 cases - 26,016 dead - Active USA cases 548,887

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

 
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
If we ever get the results back of my wife's test, you might have one right here :hey:  It'll be two weeks this weekend.

 
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
In SF bay area, don't know anyone that got it. 

 
From what I have read today, last U.S. SARS case was 17 years ago, last MERS was May 2014.

They developed a vaccine in ferrets for the former but since it was largely eradicated they moved onto other priorities.

The vaccine for the latter was in clinical trials last year but haven’t seen any updates.

The good news is there’s about 90% commonality in the sequencing, and they have a lot of groundwork from those two to lead many to believe they’ll be successful developing the SARS-CoV2 vaccine.

But far from a slam dunk at this juncture.
Curious, how much cash would it take to get a vaccine SARS & MERS over the finish line? I'm guessing the lack of cases and cost are why it was never finished up.

I wonder if this event will prompt them to come up with something for those as well? I have no idea of cost associated with this stuff other than you probably start at millions and go up from there.
According to Congressional testimony in March, a few million dollars
 

In the linked article one of the researchers working on a SARS vaccine told Congress they felt they were close in 2016, but the funding dried up. The article is pretty light on details, but he basically said SARS-CoV2 is costing us tens of billions of dollars, and a few million four years ago we could have finished getting a Coronavirus vaccine.

(NOTE - there are 7 Coronavirus, 4 of which are a common cold. The other 3 are SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV2.)

I’ve never seen any claim one vaccine will be effective against all three, but there is about 90% commonality between SARS and the current virus. 🦠  Fauci and others seem confident we will eventually have a vaccine. There’s no guarantee but I don’t think Covid 19 will end up being a endemic.

FWIW, in my limited research (dozen articles) I could not find any evidence vaccine development for SARS or MERS ever reached human clinical trials. I saw ferret and mice trials, and in the case of SARS, some of the trials caused mice to become much worse.

ETA - found a few detailed study designs but even using the clinical trial number to search, could not find the actual study which was to have followed.

But there a few articles I couldn’t access because they were in medical journals behind paywalls.

<< FD: CFO/CPA, did not stay in a Holiday Inn, not a doctor, not a HCW, not a public health official, and I possess only a layman’s understanding of any of this stuff.

 
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Not remotely. It's only a "big part of the story" because people just can't help themselves. Everyone wants to get their cheap shots in on Trump. The slack is only in one direction - the left, so of course you appreciate it. Any push back or counter arguments or defense of Trump and out comes the "be cool in here". 
I never got political in my response.  I was letting you know why politics (R or D) is a natural part of the conversation.  You went straight political in your response and are accusing people of taking Trump shots.
You're trying to justify the politics and I'm not buying it.

 
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
I know of 2 people and possibly a third but he’s waiting on test results.

 
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
I live in South Jersey. So far I know 4 people. My brother’s brother-in-law and sister-in-law in NY and two friend’s of my wife’s family down here, one of which passed away.

 
Guy in my fantasy football league and his family (recovered), a wife of a guy that works for me (recovering), one of our sales managers (intubated with no real positive news).

We're to the point where 1 in 500 people have it. With how interconnected society is, I'd be more surprised if I didn't know someone.

 
According to Congressional testimony in March, a few million dollars
 

In the linked article one of the researchers working on a SARS vaccine told Congress they felt they were close in 2016, but the funding dried up. The article is pretty light on details, but he basically said SARS-CoV2 is costing us tens of billions of dollars, and a few million four years ago we could have finished getting a Coronavirus vaccine.

(NOTE - there are 7 Coronavirus, 4 of which are a common cold. The other 3 are SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV2.)

I’ve never seen any claim one vaccine will be effective against all three, but there is about 90% commonality between SARS and the current virus. 🦠  Fauci and others seem confident we will eventually have a vaccine. There’s no guarantee but I don’t think Covid 19 will end up being a endemic.

FWIW, in my limited research (dozen articles) I could not find any evidence vaccine development for SARS or MERS ever reached human clinical trials. I saw ferret and mice trials, and in the case of SARS, some of the trials caused mice to become much worse.

ETA - found a few detailed study designs but even using the clinical trial number to search, could not find the actual study which was to have followed.

But there a few articles I couldn’t access because they were in medical journals behind paywalls.

<< FD: CFO/CPA, did not stay in a Holiday Inn, not a doctor, not a HCW, not a public health official, and I possess only a layman’s understanding of any of this stuff.
You’re right. I mis-read an article thinking people got killed in the original SARS trials; it is somewhere in this thread. Only animals were harmed by the vaccine.

 
Guy in my fantasy football league and his family (recovered), a wife of a guy that works for me (recovering), one of our sales managers (intubated with no real positive news).

We're to the point where 1 in 500 people have it. With how interconnected society is, I'd be more surprised if I didn't know someone.
Sorry about your sales manager, best wishes for a full recovery.

 
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You’re right. I mis-read an article thinking people got killed in the original SARS trials; it is somewhere in this thread. Only animals were harmed by the vaccine.
Thanks, wasn’t sure if I missed something. Appreciate all you’ve been contributing to the thread even though a good chunk of it is above my pay grade. Have definitely learned a lot from your posts.

 
Huge jump in death numbers in LA today +129. Previous daily high was 70.  From my records, the 2 daily highest number of cases were 10 and 12 days ago.  For those who are studying the curves from other areas, is 10-12 days an average number in lag time of deaths being reported?  I'm just curious how our numbers stack up.
Our state health department later today posted that their analysis showed deaths to occur on average ~11 days after symptoms were displayed, so taking that into account and a little lag for testing time, I'd say if falls right in line. And if so, we are going to have a few more days with bigger death numbers like we did today. Hopefully this is the peak (deaths) for us. 

 
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
Nobody personally.  That's a good thing though

 
It means if that strain were to become prevalent the current vaccine development wouldn't be effective for that strain. I've already read that there are like 8 to 9 different strains out there.

 
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
I’m in rural north Florida. I know 3 local adults who have it, and maybe 3 teens. I have 7 others in other parts of the country who have had it. 1 died and he was in nyc. 

 
"The SCMP report has quoted an unnamed researcher as saying that the findings of this study will need further verification, as there remains the possibility of the mutation being caused by a technical error during the sequencing process. There is also a chance of the results produced by the computer simulation being misleading.

But if the results are indeed accurate, they will simply create more uncertainty about the vaccines that are currently being developed—some of which are already in the clinical trial stages in China and the USA. And to add to the dilemma, if the novel coronavirus continues to constantly mutate, the vaccines, even after getting successfully developed, will need to be periodically tested and updated to ensure they continue working."

--

So this could be a complicating factor.  We might find a vaccine for one strain, but it might not work (or not work as well) on another strain.

 
It means if that strain were to become prevalent the current vaccine development wouldn't be effective for that strain. I've already read that there are like 8 to 9 different strains out there.
not doubting you but do you have a link you can share with that info? I've only seen it stated that they knew of 2 strains (since Wuhan). 

 
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
Cleveland area here. Know 2 people who have died. 4 other confirmed. 1 of which is currently on a vent. All of them but 1 of the people who passed away are either folks I work with at one of our facilities that had an outbreak or family members. We have a few other folks who are out with symptoms but havent been tested because they aren't high risk or sick enough.  

We had to close the facility for two weeks and have it professionally cleaned. 

 
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
I personally know one. He's been on a vent for almost 2 weeks, and they are hopeful he comes off tomorrow, but it has been harrowing, watching his wife's daily posts on FB, to say the least.  I know of 2 others here locally that are friends/family of friends, that were also on vents, but progressing. One in particular was on vent almost 2 weeks. Is now off the vent (just in the last couple of days), and is doing better but thus far all tests and still come back positive so he can't be discharged yet.  I also indirectly know a couple others that tested positive but were very mild cases (no hospital). 

 
This was from March 30th

Link
thanks! good info there and in the link within: https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

This is positive:

The COVID-19 virus does not mutate very fast. It does so eight to 10 times more slowly than the influenza virus, said Anderson, making its evolution rate similar to other coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). 

It’s also not expected to spontaneously evolve into a form more deadly than it already is to humans. The SARS-CoV-2 is so good at transmitting itself between human hosts, said Andersen, it is under no evolutionary pressure to evolve.
also:

The virus’s initial sequence was published on Jan. 10 by professor Yong-Zhen Zhang at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center. But Chiu says scientists don’t know if there was just one strain circulating in China or more.

 
shader said:
NorvilleBarnes said:
Not remotely. It's only a "big part of the story" because people just can't help themselves. Everyone wants to get their cheap shots in on Trump. The slack is only in one direction - the left, so of course you appreciate it. Any push back or counter arguments or defense of Trump and out comes the "be cool in here". 
I never got political in my response.  I was letting you know why politics (R or D) is a natural part of the conversation.  You went straight political in your response and are accusing people of taking Trump shots.
No kidding.  :lmao:   What a back-door way to insert his own politics.  

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Huge jump in death numbers in LA today +129. Previous daily high was 70.  From my records, the 2 daily highest number of cases were 10 and 12 days ago.  For those who are studying the curves from other areas, is 10-12 days an average number in lag time of deaths being reported?  I'm just curious how our numbers stack up.


JAA said:
MA is starting to ramp up  :(
Worst day for deaths up here in Canada  as well. 123 when previous high was about 75.  :(

 
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PinkydaPimp said:
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
Not a sole.

Knock on wood.

 
PinkydaPimp said:
I’m curious.  How many people either know someone who had covid or at least a friend of a friend?  Seems we are at a point where most people know someone but then again I’m in nj/nyc area so it’s a lot more prevalent.
Too many for me. I know 12 that have passed and another 40 or so close acquaintances that are still sick, probably another 30 or so that are "recovered."

 
Took me days to catch up. Thanks again for this discusssion CovidGuys&Gals. I have left my property once in 20 some (honestly forget) days. They blend together. Never worried about booze because I have one those snazzy temp controlled wine cabinets. It holds 177 bottles. Had around 140, probably under 100. I drank a $400 grand cru like a bottle of Pabst today working on a garage conversion. Thanks @cosjobsfor showing me the light about the good things. And thanks for the idea of asking a local liquor store to deliver. I was the first here to ask the one closest to me. Owner took my credit card, and someone left a six pack of Belching Beaver Chocolate Peanut Butter Milk Stout at my door. Got tired of wine.

I am in the SoCal desert, a couple hours from LA in a community of about 27k. No town within 45 min drive, 4 cases, none hospitalized, all over a week old with nothing new, all employees of the China Lake Navy base. My sis has worked on base 40 years. She knows all 4. Her husband is 61, in a wheelchair (motorcycle accident), suffers from COPD. Nearly lost him to pneumonia a year ago, so they have been self-quarantined. She asked me when I will shop so I can deliver. We have Walmart pick up, but no delivery here. I have a list of things they need or would like. I guess I am going first thing in the morning. 

I noticed Googling the store provides store traffic data. Here all are slowest at opening. You might want to check that for your store.

 

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