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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

Wow, I have this thread all to myself for a minute or two...

- News has become stagnant over the last month.  Same briefings, different day  

- I lean on the side of caution, but can understand folks who are protesting.  As long as they are physical distancing.

- How bad did I need a haircut?  Bad enough to let my brother do it, and he's a chef!

- Trimming dogs nails is no joke (made her bleed on the first nail).  Was trying to adhere to stay home policy, but ended up at the groomer anyway.

- I wonder if bats feel bad that humans are dying?

 
CurlyNight said:
Masks made overseas? No thanks. I'm wearing cotton reusable ones.

:sadbanana:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2815287535191617&id=100001311937720
Click to expand...
yep ... no goodski on that ####. 

i ordered a three pack of black cotton/washable masks on Amazon - got an email no more than 30 minutes later informing me that stock was now OUT, and would i accept a similar item(s) - so, yeah, why the hell not. 

ehhh - what they shipped me were 4 paper masks, from China, just tossed into a plasic baggy - #### on a stick. 

i coughed 30 balloons up for the original purchase, so now i gotta reconcile knowing the 4 they did send have a street value of maybe $15 - and will never be worn. 

my gf then hit the Youtubez tutorials and fashioned me a pretty sweet homemade pair. 

caveat emptor on these, folks. 

 
Kal El said:
They have twice the number of cases as any of their neighbors, and deaths for at least one day(I think it was Saturday) outpaced their neighbors combined. Their experiment is an illustration of what not to do.
Click to expand...
Whats the goal here now, as few deaths as possible? The goal posts keep moving. Shut everything down then for 2 years.

This appears to be a solution that might work for us going forward. Open the economy up, practice social distancing and the other guidelines. Its definitely something that should be looked at.  

 
Coach Morris Buttermaker said:
Whats the goal here now, as few deaths as possible? The goal posts keep moving. Shut everything down then for 2 years.

This appears to be a solution that might work for us going forward. Open the economy up, practice social distancing and the other guidelines. Its definitely something that should be looked at.  
Click to expand...
Fewer deaths, fewer opportunities to spread the virus, less economic ruin in the long run, these are all better than Sweden's idea. It should be looked at and rejected as a viable option.

 
Kal El said:
They have twice the number of cases as any of their neighbors, and deaths for at least one day(I think it was Saturday) outpaced their neighbors combined. Their experiment is an illustration of what not to do.
Click to expand...
Yes, they have more than the other Scandis...but people like to say 'all the other Scandinavian countries COMBINED' but there are only 3 others, and Sweden has the largest population of any of them.

But even so, yes, their approach has resulted in a few hundred more deaths, no denying. But I don't know that we can say at this point their approach won't result in a better overall outcome in the long run either through a faster route through the pandemic or as a result of less impact from all the negatives that come from a decimated economy. 

 
  • Laughing
Reactions: JAA
Kal El said:
Fewer deaths, fewer opportunities to spread the virus, less economic ruin in the long run, these are all better than Sweden's idea. It should be looked at and rejected as a viable option.
Click to expand...
My son might agree with you if he was still allowed to go into peoples homes and make a living rather than waiting on unemployment for a 5th week. 

 
BassNBrew said:
My son might agree with you if he was still allowed to go into peoples homes and make a living rather than waiting on unemployment for a 5th week. 
Click to expand...
I don't go into people's homes, either, I'm fortunate enough to be working in construction. They're still shutting down some sites, so work is harder to come by. However, opening up too soon is inviting a second wave of infection that may be worse than the first one.

 
TripItUp said:
"First we didnt' have enough beds.  Then it was ventilators.  Now tests?  I'm growing tired of this.  Protect the elderly.  Let everyone else get back to work.  Problem solved."

-Chuck Woolery
Click to expand...
"now tests?"?  it's always been about tests/testing...from day one...and we're STILL not there.  The "guidelines" don't even have tangible, meaningful, effective metrics for testing.

 
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Battersbox said:
Yes, they have more than the other Scandis...but people like to say 'all the other Scandinavian countries COMBINED' but there are only 3 others, and Sweden has the largest population of any of them.

But even so, yes, their approach has resulted in a few hundred more deaths, no denying. But I don't know that we can say at this point their approach won't result in a better overall outcome in the long run either through a faster route through the pandemic or as a result of less impact from all the negatives that come from a decimated economy. 
Click to expand...
With so much uncertainty, many of us struggle with what's "right", so Sweden is obviously interesting.

I agree that we don't know which method will work best long-term yet. 

But I think you are underselling just how poorly it's working for Sweden compared the rest of them so far. Those other 3 countries have 644 deaths combined (population 15 mill), and Sweden (pop. 10 mill) has 1580 deaths. That's a pretty stark difference. And one that could get much, much worse.

I don't know how this turns out for them (or anyone), but "a few hundred more deaths" seems like a highly unlikely outcome given the current status and direction. They've more than doubled the combined rest now, Sweden lags in testing, and the others are seeing the curve flatten much more sharply. We'll see.

I'm generally on team 'shut it down", but I surely have no clue what's right. 

 
pollardsvision said:
With so much uncertainty, many of us struggle with what's "right", so Sweden is obviously interesting.

I agree that we don't know which method will work best long-term yet. 

But I think you are underselling just how poorly it's working for Sweden compared the rest of them so far. Those other 3 countries have 644 deaths combined (population 15 mill), and Sweden (pop. 10 mill) has 1580 deaths. That's a pretty stark difference. And one that could get much, much worse.

I don't know how this turns out for them (or anyone), but "a few hundred more deaths" seems like a highly unlikely outcome given the current status and direction. They've more than doubled the combined rest now, Sweden lags in testing, and the others are seeing the curve flatten much more sharply. We'll see.

I'm generally on team 'shut it down", but I surely have no clue what's right. 
Click to expand...
The issues they are having are some of the same issues here. Their elderly care places are being hit hard. 

 
pollardsvision said:
With so much uncertainty, many of us struggle with what's "right", so Sweden is obviously interesting.

I agree that we don't know which method will work best long-term yet. 

But I think you are underselling just how poorly it's working for Sweden compared the rest of them so far. Those other 3 countries have 644 deaths combined (population 15 mill), and Sweden (pop. 10 mill) has 1580 deaths. That's a pretty stark difference. And one that could get much, much worse.

I don't know how this turns out for them (or anyone), but "a few hundred more deaths" seems like a highly unlikely outcome given the current status and direction. They've more than doubled the combined rest now, Sweden lags in testing, and the others are seeing the curve flatten much more sharply. We'll see.

I'm generally on team 'shut it down", but I surely have no clue what's right. 
Click to expand...
Yes, that's a lot more deaths. However, it is plausible that Sweden is further down the path of this than the other countries and is already closer to herd immunity than those other countries. It seems likely to me that everyone will catch this virus sooner or later. The point of the shutdowns was to flatten the curve to prevent the burden of an overloaded healthcare system. Sweden has not been overloaded. 

If the point of the lockdowns is to eradicate the virus then yes, Sweden's approach appears to be foolish. Personally, I don't think the virus can be stopped at this point. 

Also: it's virtually impossible to measure the hardship and tangential deaths that will occur as a result of the economic devastation these lockdowns have caused, but it's quite possible those deaths are greater than the virus itself will cause. Most people were in agreement that locking down was advisable to prevent unnecessary burdens on healthcare workers. However, I don't think there is a consensus as to what the best path forward is once the healthcare explosion has been taken off the table. Nor should we expect there to be, because nobody knows.

 
shader said:
Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

4/6 - 1,264,826 reported cases - 71,366 dead - USA 367,004 cases - 10,871 dead

4/9 - 1,521,741 reported cases - 92,380 dead - USA 468,566 cases - 16,691 dead - Active USA cases 425,947

4/15 - 2,000,963 reported cases - 131,275 dead - USA 644,089 cases - 28,529 dead - Active USA cases 566,859

4/16 - 2,098,400 reported cases - 142,109 dead - USA 677,180 cases - 34,605 dead * - Active USA cases 585,181

4/17 - 2,166,751 reported cases - 149,573 dead - USA 709,735 cases - 37,154 dead - Active USA cases 612,071

4/20 - 2,397,756 reported cases - 165,765 dead - USA 792,759 cases - 42,514 dead - Active USA cases 677,856

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0
Click to expand...
Sorry everyone, these are yesterday's numbers.  Went back and updated the spreadsheet.  Long weekend, long story.

It devastates me to see so many states (including my own) making plans to re-open the economy when our active cases continue to go up.  Progress is being made, stick it out for one more month, cmon people.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Study Finds 30 Strains, Some Highly Virulent

Okay, some pessimism, but I also think realism.

I’ve read that the virus may mutate itself into less deadly forms over time. But with the linked study finding that mutation is under appreciated, and most aggressive strains are 270x weaker strains in infecting human cells, what if it doesn’t mutate down? 

There are some disturbing potentials emerging:

  • People may be reinfected by same or various strains 
  • Some stains may be extremely virulent and deadly
  • To degree world reconnects, strains will circle globe and more will mutate 
  • Vaccine will likely not be effective in such a scenario 
  • Focus must be on treatment, but with so many strains and effects there will likely not be a silver bullet 
Now that deadly coronavirus jumped from bats to an intermediate host to humans, and variants are in circulation, the horse may have left the barn.

WE ARE NOW IN A POST CORONAVIRUS WORLD.

It may be that this is a permanent or semi-permanent condition, where everyone integrated into public life can expect to get versions of coronavirus more regularly than we can expect to get the flu, because R0 numbers will probably be higher.

And some of these strains will be orders of magnitude more deadly than flu.

Maybe as this happens we develop some baseline immune response that helps us avoid the worst in most patients, but I’m starting to think this isn’t a temporary condition.

I’m starting to think there have to be advances in medicine and drugs that will take several years if not into the decades to fully address.

In the interim, it may well be that going back to the life we knew will translate to 2-3% of the world’s population (or more if the right strain mutates) will die annually ongoing, 
Click to expand...
It's a non peer-reviewed study, like almost all the studies we see linked in this thread these days...so we have to take them all with a grain of salt.

But it's still a very interesting study.  I think back to a podcast I heard a week or two ago on Joe Rogan's pod where the doctor (can't remember the guy, lived in Texas and is trying to find a vaccine for this virus) was discussing how one of the most difficult things about this virus is that it's a novel virus, and so we really don't KNOW anything about it.

So many times we are quick to form opinions on this virus and what it is, and how to treat it.....but the truth is we don't know.

Viruses mutate, this shouldn't be a shocking thing.  So if this virus has mutated, that shouldn't surprise anyone.  It's definitely worth investigating.  Next step is to put this study through the peer review process.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
otb_lifer said:
yep ... no goodski on that ####. 

i ordered a three pack of black cotton/washable masks on Amazon - got an email no more than 30 minutes later informing me that stock was now OUT, and would i accept a similar item(s) - so, yeah, why the hell not. 

ehhh - what they shipped me were 4 paper masks, from China, just tossed into a plasic baggy - #### on a stick. 

i coughed 30 balloons up for the original purchase, so now i gotta reconcile knowing the 4 they did send have a street value of maybe $15 - and will never be worn. 

my gf then hit the Youtubez tutorials and fashioned me a pretty sweet homemade pair. 

caveat emptor on these, folks. 
Click to expand...
There's a store in town selling the kn95 masks at 10 bucks a pop.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Study Finds 30 Strains, Some Highly Virulent

Okay, some pessimism, but I also think realism.

I’ve read that the virus may mutate itself into less deadly forms over time. But with the linked study finding that mutation is under appreciated, and most aggressive strains are 270x weaker strains in infecting human cells, what if it doesn’t mutate down? 

There are some disturbing potentials emerging:

  • People may be reinfected by same or various strains 
  • Some stains may be extremely virulent and deadly
  • To degree world reconnects, strains will circle globe and more will mutate 
  • Vaccine will likely not be effective in such a scenario 
  • Focus must be on treatment, but with so many strains and effects there will likely not be a silver bullet 
Now that deadly coronavirus jumped from bats to an intermediate host to humans, and variants are in circulation, the horse may have left the barn.

WE ARE NOW IN A POST CORONAVIRUS WORLD.

It may be that this is a permanent or semi-permanent condition, where everyone integrated into public life can expect to get versions of coronavirus more regularly than we can expect to get the flu, because R0 numbers will probably be higher.

And some of these strains will be orders of magnitude more deadly than flu.

Maybe as this happens we develop some baseline immune response that helps us avoid the worst in most patients, but I’m starting to think this isn’t a temporary condition.

I’m starting to think there have to be advances in medicine and drugs that will take several years if not into the decades to fully address.

In the interim, it may well be that going back to the life we knew will translate to 2-3% of the world’s population (or more if the right strain mutates) will die annually ongoing, 
Click to expand...
I want to "like" this post but based on the content that doesn't seem right.  However I agree 100% with this.  Unfortunately I believe we'll be living with this for a long, long time.  Hopefully our medical experts can develop some effective treatments to lower that death rate.  This sucks but I feel is just being realistic about this damn virus.

 
parasaurolophus said:
You are the first to point if anything positive isnt peer reviewed. 
Click to expand...
Very little on this virus is peer reviewed right now.  Scroll up where I replied to Ham.  It's an interesting article and could explain a lot, but needs a peer review process like anything else.  You can shove the shtick, I'm not interested in it.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Keerock said:
And your "freedom" is more important than everyone else's health?  Anti-vaxxer too?
Click to expand...
I think he was being sarcastic. 

But there is a legitimate discussion point here. There is a threshold where liberty should outweigh health concerns. I dont know the exact point that is, but it does exist. 

Now before you judge my comment, I am pretty sure I am one of the only posters on here actively saying HIPAA needs to get waived for covid19. However that needs to be done, new law, whatever, needs to happen. 

 
TheWinz said:
- Trimming dogs nails is no joke (made her bleed on the first nail).  Was trying to adhere to stay home policy, but ended up at the groomer anyway.
Click to expand...
There are several products out there now designed specifically for it, but if you have a Dremmel, it's the best way to trim or file down your dog's nails. My current lab is so wound up and nuts, and runs so much that I don't need to trim his nails at all, but if he ever calms down enough to do it, that's the way to go.

 
jplvr said:
There are several products out there now designed specifically for it, but if you have a Dremmel, it's the best way to trim or file down your dog's nails. My current lab is so wound up and nuts, and runs so much that I don't need to trim his nails at all, but if he ever calms down enough to do it, that's the way to go.
Click to expand...
There is only one way to accomplish this and here it is, thank me later.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/20/woman-shares-incredible-hack-showing-cuts-dogs-nails-lockdown-12583762/

 
shader said:
Very little on this virus is peer reviewed right now.  Scroll up where I replied to Ham.  It's an interesting article and could explain a lot, but needs a peer review process like anything else.  You can shove the shtick, I'm not interested in it.
Click to expand...
The problem is I have followed this thread from the beginning and consistently you dismiss anyone's opinion that differs with yours (always on the side of the world is not ending) and sometimes quite flippantly .  The problem is your "facts" you continually use maybe not facts.  How does your response to Mr Ham (see bolded below) fit into your "You can shove the shtick, I'm not interested in it" when you even state we don't KNOW anything about it.

It's a non peer-reviewed study, like almost all the studies we see linked in this thread these days...so we have to take them all with a grain of salt.

But it's still a very interesting study.  I think back to a podcast I heard a week or two ago on Joe Rogan's pod where the doctor (can't remember the guy, lived in Texas and is trying to find a vaccine for this virus) was discussing how one of the most difficult things about this virus is that it's a novel virus, and so we really don't KNOW anything about it.

So many times we are quick to form opinions on this virus and what it is, and how to treat it.....but the truth is we don't know.

I think many of us can use your own words back at you.... "You can shove the shtick, I'm not interested in it" if you cannot see the what you wrote in this response should not make you so damn certain of what direction we should be going in the future.  Because most if not all the "facts" you are using are not peer reviewed either, the medical/scientific community has not had time to accomplish these reviews.  I know I don't know with any certainty of how we should proceed going forward, but I am not closing my mind to all options especially without really knowing what COVID really is. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Battersbox said:
Yes, that's a lot more deaths. However, it is plausible that Sweden is further down the path of this than the other countries and is already closer to herd immunity than those other countries. It seems likely to me that everyone will catch this virus sooner or later. The point of the shutdowns was to flatten the curve to prevent the burden of an overloaded healthcare system. Sweden has not been overloaded. 

If the point of the lockdowns is to eradicate the virus then yes, Sweden's approach appears to be foolish. Personally, I don't think the virus can be stopped at this point. 

Also: it's virtually impossible to measure the hardship and tangential deaths that will occur as a result of the economic devastation these lockdowns have caused, but it's quite possible those deaths are greater than the virus itself will cause. Most people were in agreement that locking down was advisable to prevent unnecessary burdens on healthcare workers. However, I don't think there is a consensus as to what the best path forward is once the healthcare explosion has been taken off the table. Nor should we expect there to be, because nobody knows.
Click to expand...
The virus is here to stay, and no one is going to stay locked down for 18 months or whatever period of time it takes to develop a vaccine, if one can be developed. If we can get back to some sort of normalcy and not overwhelm our healthcare system, actually letting it get back to some sort of normalcy as well and not go bankrupt as some hospitals are now considering filing, then we should do it. I understand that people will die from this, and I'm just as sad about it as anyone else. 

 
So if there is multiple strains does getting a weaker strain help you against a stronger strain and if so could the weaker strain become a vaccination against the stronger strains or is that a horrible idea?

 
Mr. Ham said:
Study Finds 30 Strains, Some Highly Virulent

Okay, some pessimism, but I also think realism.

I’ve read that the virus may mutate itself into less deadly forms over time. But with the linked study finding that mutation is under appreciated, and most aggressive strains are 270x weaker strains in infecting human cells, what if it doesn’t mutate down? 

There are some disturbing potentials emerging:

  • People may be reinfected by same or various strains 
  • Some stains may be extremely virulent and deadly
  • To degree world reconnects, strains will circle globe and more will mutate 
  • Vaccine will likely not be effective in such a scenario 
  • Focus must be on treatment, but with so many strains and effects there will likely not be a silver bullet 
Now that deadly coronavirus jumped from bats to an intermediate host to humans, and variants are in circulation, the horse may have left the barn.

WE ARE NOW IN A POST CORONAVIRUS WORLD.

It may be that this is a permanent or semi-permanent condition, where everyone integrated into public life can expect to get versions of coronavirus more regularly than we can expect to get the flu, because R0 numbers will probably be higher.

And some of these strains will be orders of magnitude more deadly than flu.

Maybe as this happens we develop some baseline immune response that helps us avoid the worst in most patients, but I’m starting to think this isn’t a temporary condition.

I’m starting to think there have to be advances in medicine and drugs that will take several years if not into the decades to fully address.

In the interim, it may well be that going back to the life we knew will translate to 2-3% of the world’s population (or more if the right strain mutates) will die annually ongoing, 
Click to expand...
I know others have mentioned this, but in general standard media does a terrible job of reporting scientific results, and as mentioned that is an un-reviewed article. It might be true, but I would wait for some other scientific source for confirmation. How many times has USA Today or some other non-scientific journal had some article about a new cure for cancer, and then it is like "This thing kills cancer cells on a plate in a lab" which is a dime a dozen and we would have millions of cures for cancer by now if that was all it took. 

 
I'm thankful that due to the effort of most Americans, we managed to avoid overwhelming our medical system. That really was my biggest concern since Day 1. I agree with most of the plans to re-open and find them to be reasonable. Yes, more people will get infected and more lives will be lost but I expected since early this month that we would begin to open up by the end of April. It needs to be done. I'll do my best to avoid all the Monday morning quarterbacking, conspiracy theories and political finger-pointing and just remain optimistic that the worst is over and good days are on the horizon.

 
jamny said:
I'm thankful that due to the effort of most Americans, we managed to avoid overwhelming our medical system. That really was my biggest concern since Day 1. I agree with most of the plans to re-open and find them to be reasonable. Yes, more people will get infected and more lives will be lost but I expected since early this month that we would begin to open up by the end of April. It needs to be done. I'll do my best to avoid all the Monday morning quarterbacking, conspiracy theories and political finger-pointing and just remain optimistic that the worst is over and good days are on the horizon.
Click to expand...
Seems reasonable to think about re-opening stuff like less-crowded parks, offices, stores that sell non-essential products, etc.  Seems completely irresponsible and willfully negligent to start opening things like hair salons, restaurants, movie theaters, etc. where people will be in close contact with strangers while there's still a high rate of infection in most areas, when we have little testing, no unified plan for taking temperature, etc.

I think if we continue social distancing until the number infected is far lower than now and then re-open the safer things, that would be reasonable...and could probably begin happening in a month or so.  However, there's little evidence that 'the worst is over' if we throw it all away by rushing to re-open everything without a solid plan.  I suspect that things are going to get very ugly in states like Georgia and Tennessee and we'll all pay the price, between the avoidable spread of the virus they're going to cause and the likely overreaction (states that could have done a well-planned June reopening that will end up waiting until July or August out of an abundance of caution once they see what happens in those that move too quickly).

 
Mr. Ham said:
Part that needs peer review is the relative ability to infect human cells. There is a very high likelihood that the thing I’m reacting to, which is 30 strains and counting, is true. There is a ton unknown, but it appears to look less likely that a vaccine, think Polio, is going to emerge and we’re done. I think it’s emerging that this is more like a flu that is as hard to fight as a cold, and some strains are far more infectious than the flu, and orders of magnitude more deadly. Until there is a fundamental Nobel Prize winning advance to fighting coronavirus, I’d wager we have a permanent new class of pathogen that is going to kill in excess of 1% of the global population annually. 
Click to expand...
Most mutations are not meaningful and do not really change the virus, and they have more mutations than they do patient samples, which means they do not have 30 viruses, they could have 2 viruses for all we know, just one has 30 mutations. I would not give this article too much thought. 

 
Big League Chew said:
what is everyone tipping delivery these days? i ordered some pizza the other night $35 or so and gave a $15 tip. someone was telling me that was outrageous and were shocked. 
Click to expand...
That’s been pretty common for me though most of the times it’s at businesses where I personally know the owners. My job hasn’t been effected by the shutdown like most have, so it’s my way of redistributing my good fortunes onto the people that really need it now so that they’re still around once we get through this.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Part that needs peer review is the relative ability to infect human cells. There is a very high likelihood that the thing I’m reacting to, which is 30 strains and counting, is true. There is a ton unknown, but it appears to look less likely that a vaccine, think Polio, is going to emerge and we’re done. I think it’s emerging that this is more like a flu that is as hard to fight as a cold, and some strains are far more infectious than the flu, and orders of magnitude more deadly. Until there is a fundamental Nobel Prize winning advance to fighting coronavirus, I’d wager we have a permanent new class of pathogen that is going to kill in excess of 1% of the global population annually. 
Click to expand...
7,800,000,000 x 1% = 78,000,000

To kill that many people, the virus would have to kill roughly 214,000 every single day.  I do think worldometer is way off in it's stats for many areas, but we are only at 173K right now.  Perhaps you are missing a decimal point and a zero as well?

 
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