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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

Mr. Ham said:
I appreciate optimism, but I don’t see anything that’s changed since we collectively decided it was a good idea to lock down. Maybe some weather related relief, as other posters have made a good case exists. But that gives us a window in some places. A low percentage have developed antibodies and we aren’t even sure if that is a shield. 

I’m all for striking a balance between human life taken by the disease, and need to sustain a vibrant economy, but seems Pollyannaish to think the worst is over and that we can safely reopen without rolling periods of shutdown. Some things may have to change semi-permanently over years, like large gatherings. I also don’t see how the worst is not ahead, especially if the population doesn’t develop a baseline that protects against the severity of cases we’ve seen in hotspots.
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I can agree with most of that. In my comments above, I hope no one thinks I'm "Pollyannish" or thinking the worst is over, but I think we're always going to be looking at mitigation going forward. I do think it's possible reopening will cause more shutdowns, even if I hope not. We just don't have a plausible way to stop this virus, especially not a way without serious, long lasting consequences.

On the tipping question: I never used Doordash previously, but where they suggest a tip, I just usually click the button and add a couple of bucks to their highest suggestion. I haven't really thought of it in terms of %, assuming they're already in the ballpark of what I would normally tip. 

 
I'm now back on team open-up.  Why?  Becasue there is no national guidance, each state is making whatever decision they think is best for them.  And, becasue we are free to travel from state-to-state, what happens in state A affects state B.  If Georgia opens everything up and the virus ramps back up, South Carolina and Florida will see spikes too.  If South Carolina* will see a spike regardless of it's own containment, we might as well have an economy too.

This is a Prisoners Dilema situation.

Everyone might as well open up becase someone will anyways.  I just hope that the hospitals are ready.

* I am fully aware that SC is opening things up before Georgia.

 
moleculo said:
I'm now back on team open-up.  Why?  Becasue there is no national guidance, each state is making whatever decision they think is best for them.  And, becasue we are free to travel from state-to-state, what happens in state A affects state B.  If Georgia opens everything up and the virus ramps back up, South Carolina and Florida will see spikes too.  If South Carolina* will see a spike regardless of it's own containment, we might as well have an economy too.

This is a Prisoners Dilema situation.

Everyone might as well open up becase someone will anyways.  I just hope that the hospitals are ready.

* I am fully aware that SC is opening things up before Georgia.
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Because the governors of a few states are dangerously irresponsible is not a reason for governors of other states to follow.

 
shader said:
I thought this article was....interesting.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333
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Not comfortable with using Jpost as a reference, though the study in question exists as a pre-print on MedRXiv. Needs peer review and corroboration ... lots of it.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus does mutate and split off strains with some frequency ... but mutation in a virus doesn't necessarily -- or even typically -- mean a major change to the essential traits of the virus.

 
jamny said:
I'm thankful that due to the effort of most Americans, we managed to avoid overwhelming our medical system. That really was my biggest concern since Day 1. I agree with most of the plans to re-open and find them to be reasonable. Yes, more people will get infected and more lives will be lost but I expected since early this month that we would begin to open up by the end of April. It needs to be done. I'll do my best to avoid all the Monday morning quarterbacking, conspiracy theories and political finger-pointing and just remain optimistic that the worst is over and good days are on the horizon.
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Agree completely that the primary purpose of the SiP (note: NOT **** in pants) was to ensure that our healthcare system was not overwhelmed.  Seems like we got close in NYC but the shutdown combined with heroic efforts from healthcare workers, politicians, national guard, etc. prevented that from happening.  What I had hoped would ALSO be accomplished during the SiP of the past month was that we'd:

  1. greatly ramp up testing (i.e. to 500k+ tests per day)
  2. develop a nationally led contact tracing program
  3. learn alot more: how this spreads, how widespread it is currently, how many asymptomatic carriers there are and how dangerous these asymptomatic carriers are, who is most at risk (i.e. age AND co-morbidities), what basic treatments are and are not effective (i.e. ventilators vs. oxygen? ibuprofen? hydroxycholroquine? etc.
  4. develop and communicate plans for how we will slowly open back up: get specific regarding the realities of the dance that will follow this hammer, build and explain the importance of leveraging opt-in technology like google-apple are creating, openly discuss the benefits/trade-offs of temporarily suspending HIPPA, etc.
  5. lead and fund a global task force (within the WHO?) to learn from what other countries are seeing and doing
  6. create a federally led task force that puts decision-making in the hands of state governors while also seeking to coordinate across states in order to ensure a regionally coordinated approach
Admittedly, the some of above goals I had upon entering this SiP were probably stretch goals as they are undoubtedly more difficult than I might have originally imagined.  As such, I'll grade the above on a curve and providing the following assessments:

  1. C- we have ramped up testing, but not to the level I believe is necessary.  Moreover, we failed to make this the priority I believe we should have given the vast resources we have at our disposal (i.e. our wealth and the ability to leverage the defense protection act)
  2. F this is currently being left to the states and that seems crazy to me
  3. C+ seems like we've learned a lot, but these studies and their peer review process take time.  Still, seems like we should have learned much more by now.  Why haven't used SOME of our precious testing to conduct random sampling of populations.  I understand the value of using antibody tests for this and that those have only recently been approved by the FDA, but I also think (admittedly controversial given scarcity) that we should have directed some tests to study random populations.
  4. C- we have federal guidelines that seem fine...vague and open to interpretation but their only guidelines anyway, so there fine.  My biggest issue with them is that they are missing the all-important contact tracing I mentioned previously. And states are developing their own plans within these guidelines, but what REALLY seems wanting here is the lack of clear and consistent communication for what is ahead of us.  At risk of getting political here I'll attack BOTH sides: one governor has incorrectly stated that he will do whatever it takes to save a single life - that's nonsense and sets an impossibly high bar he can't possibly reach.  Other governors and federal officials have: failed to talk honestly (IMO) about what re-opening really means, failed to play to the "we're all in this together" mindset this moment requires, and vacillated in their messaging (and not based upon new data - which would be fine)
  5. F this seems a big  miss for EVERY country in the world.  I understand the WHO criticism and the fact that China has been covering up from day one, but no country (however wealthy and technologically capable) can go it alone.  That there appears to be SO little global coordination on this may be my biggest disappointment
  6. B- there is indeed a federal task force on this and I have heard the VP discuss calls that he has led, but the fact that several states have created their own regional groups outside of this federal task fore seems a significant indictment to me.  Although admittedly I have not read much about what is happening behind the scenes here.


Ok, that was alot and more than I had planned on writing.  Am sure we each had different expectations going into this SiP period and THAT seems to be part of the problem.  Without clear expectations/goals it all looks like we are just playing it by ear.

As always, just my 2 cents.

And really, really, tried not to get political here so if any of the above crosses the line lease let me know and I'll edit/delete as necessary.

 
Mr. Ham said:
I appreciate optimism, but I don’t see anything that’s changed since we collectively decided it was a good idea to lock down. Maybe some weather related relief, as other posters have made a good case exists. But that gives us a window in some places. A low percentage have developed antibodies and we aren’t even sure if that is a shield. 

I’m all for striking a balance between human life taken by the disease, and need to sustain a vibrant economy, but seems Pollyannaish to think the worst is over and that we can safely reopen without rolling periods of shutdown. Some things may have to change semi-permanently over years, like large gatherings. I also don’t see how the worst is not ahead, especially if the population doesn’t develop a baseline that protects against the severity of cases we’ve seen in hotspots.
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I think the biggest thing that has changed is our understanding of how the virus is spread and communicated from human-to-human. There are certain industries, certain areas that can open back up with adherence to the new social distancing guidelines we've put in place since everything shut down. What we need more than anything is people to follow those guidelines and the procedures being put in place so retail can open back up. That's my biggest concern. People aren't doing now during a lock down, I have little faith it will change once restrictions are lifted.

That being what it is, no length of lock down is going to change that so lets open things up...SOME. Not everything all at once but let's do this in a calculated manner and make sure procedures are in place so we can, at a minimum, say we tried. Karen & Chad A nondescript man & a nondescript woman are going to ruin it and there will probably be areas that will require a quick reaction to contain outbreaks but again, keeping people locked up isn't going to change that. Karen & Chad A nondescript man & a nondescript woman are going out and doing what they want now. You're not going to change those people whether they are locked down or not. Protect yourself, protect your family, avoid what makes you feel comfortable. If your job requires you to report, that's probably going to be a tough call and I don't have any guidance.

 
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Big League Chew said:
what is everyone tipping delivery these days? i ordered some pizza the other night $35 or so and gave a $15 tip. someone was telling me that was outrageous and were shocked. 
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I've been doing the same. I can afford it. I can also see that with so many people struggling right now, we should not expect similar from others. I'm hoping we can help make up the difference.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Study Finds 30 Strains, Some Highly Virulent

Okay, some pessimism, but I also think realism.

I’ve read that the virus may mutate itself into less deadly forms over time. But with the linked study finding that mutation is under appreciated, and most aggressive strains are 270x weaker strains in infecting human cells, what if it doesn’t mutate down? 
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Just like the 'positive news!' studies ... this one (same one I posted about just now) ain't there yet. Let's see what happens when other researchers follow these threads.

 
well ####.

My tenants have been struggling, so I gave them free rent last month. I also offered some work for one of them. He came yesterday and mainly did yard work.

Today a contractor here yesterday told me the tenant told him that he had COVID last month.

We have been very cautious with workers here, but still this is the biggest breach to my safety so far.

I'm furious he did not tell me.

Probably incorrect

 
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jamny said:
I'm thankful that due to the effort of most Americans, we managed to avoid overwhelming our medical system. That really was my biggest concern since Day 1. I agree with most of the plans to re-open and find them to be reasonable. Yes, more people will get infected and more lives will be lost but I expected since early this month that we would begin to open up by the end of April. It needs to be done. I'll do my best to avoid all the Monday morning quarterbacking, conspiracy theories and political finger-pointing and just remain optimistic that the worst is over and good days are on the horizon.
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Being optimistic that the worst is over, and also stating that we need to open things up, is incredibly infuriating.  That’s not optimism, that’s being blind to the facts and promoting an agenda that will get people killed.

@jplvr stated that he wants to open it up even though he understands that will cause more deaths. I 100% respect and understand that idea. It SUCKS, but it’s reality.

But to say that we need to open it up, and then profess optimism that the worst is over, makes zero sense. 

 
AAABatteries said:
So if there is multiple strains does getting a weaker strain help you against a stronger strain and if so could the weaker strain become a vaccination against the stronger strains or is that a horrible idea?
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No, not a horrible idea at all. Vaccinations are, essentially, attenuated "strains" of a virus that elicit production of antibodies without kicking off (much of) an immune response in the body. Ideally, infection of the weaker strain will be medically controlled ... and the weaker strain will be attenuated so that it causes as little immune response as possible.

 
shader said:
Being optimistic that the worst is over, and also stating that we need to open things up, is incredibly infuriating.  That’s not optimism, that’s being blind to the facts and promoting an agenda that will get people killed.

@jplvr stated that he wants to open it up even though he understands that will cause more deaths. I 100% respect and understand that idea. It SUCKS, but it’s reality.

But to say that we need to open it up, and then profess optimism that the worst is over, makes zero sense. 
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Opening up is one of those scenarios where I can actually see both sides of this thing.

For me, I think it's too early to open up.

But people are hungry. People are scared. It wasn't long ago where I was a paycheck to paycheck guy. And when I think of those times, if I couldn't afford to be able to put food in my kids bellies I would be terrified. 

I just can't judge those people who want things to open up. I've been that guy before. 

 
Doug B said:
AAABatteries said:
So if there is multiple strains does getting a weaker strain help you against a stronger strain and if so could the weaker strain become a vaccination against the stronger strains or is that a horrible idea?
Click to expand...
No, not a horrible idea at all. Vaccinations are, essentially, attenuated "strains" of a virus that elicit production of antibodies without kicking off (much of) an immune response in the body. Ideally, infection of the weaker strain will be medically controlled ... and the weaker strain will be attenuated so that it causes as little immune response as possible.
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@Keerock learned a new word today!  :hifive:

 
Doug B said:
No, not a horrible idea at all. Vaccinations are, essentially, attenuated "strains" of a virus that elicit production of antibodies without kicking off (much of) an immune response in the body. Ideally, infection of the weaker strain will be medically controlled ... and the weaker strain will be attenuated so that it causes as little immune response as possible.
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NYT podcast yesterday was speculating that soon some would try to risk getting the virus so they could get immunity.

If there was a weaker strain that provided immunity to the stronger strain, that’s an interesting idea

They touched on smallpox and how many years ago, some families would shave dried scabs of smallpox into some sort of medicine that would provide a very minimal smallpox viral load. According to the journalist, this method had a 1% chance of death as opposed to a 33% chance of death. 

 
huthut said:
I know others have mentioned this, but in general standard media does a terrible job of reporting scientific results, and as mentioned that is an un-reviewed article. It might be true, but I would wait for some other scientific source for confirmation. How many times has USA Today or some other non-scientific journal had some article about a new cure for cancer, and then it is like "This thing kills cancer cells on a plate in a lab" which is a dime a dozen and we would have millions of cures for cancer by now if that was all it took. 
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Quoted for truth. :goodposting:

 
cosjobs said:
well ####.

My tenants have been struggling, so I gave them free rent last month. I also offered some work for one of them. He came yesterday and mainly did yard work.

Today a contractor here yesterday told me the tenant told him that he had COVID last month.

We have been very cautious with workers here, but still this is the biggest breach to my safety so far.

I'm furious he did not tell me.
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Okay, probably false alarm.

I called his roommate (who I know better and is on the lease) and he said they thought another roommate had the virus in ealy March, but she tested clear and has not been sick since, nor has anyone else at the house. I guess he told a very poorly worded anecdote to another worker about eh situation.

Anyway, I think its all okay, but I was really angry for a bit.

Wife and I will discuss tonight and tell him whether or not to return.

 
shader said:
Being optimistic that the worst is over, and also stating that we need to open things up, is incredibly infuriating.  That’s not optimism, that’s being blind to the facts and promoting an agenda that will get people killed.

@jplvr stated that he wants to open it up even though he understands that will cause more deaths. I 100% respect and understand that idea. It SUCKS, but it’s reality.

But to say that we need to open it up, and then profess optimism that the worst is over, makes zero sense. 
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I said "begin" to open things up as has been proposed. I never said throw the doors open. Sorry if I feel the worst is over but that's what it is to me. Unlike early on when I questioned another poster who stated, after there were 1000 deaths in a day around the globe, stating that it won't be long until there are that many in an hour when there hadn't even been 24,000 death total around the world. When I pushed back on that assertion, you and a few others scoffed at my inability to understand exponential growth. You can keep your negativity and remain infuriated. I'll stick with my optimism.

 
shader said:
They touched on smallpox and how many years ago, some families would shave dried scabs of smallpox into some sort of medicine that would provide a very minimal smallpox viral load. According to the journalist, this method had a 1% chance of death as opposed to a 33% chance of death. 
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I don't know about the percentages ... but preventative treatment via dried scabs/pus or other detritus, known as variolation, has an interesting history. 

 
jamny said:
I said "begin" to open things up as has been proposed. I never said throw the doors open. Sorry if I feel the worst is over but that's what it is to me. Unlike early on when I questioned another poster who stated, after there were 1000 deaths in a day around the globe, stating that it won't be long until there are that many in an hour when there hadn't even been 24,000 death total around the world. When I pushed back on that assertion, you and a few others scoffed at my inability to understand exponential growth. You can keep your negativity and remain infuriated. I'll stick with my optimism.
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I don't think that argument is helping you.  There 100% would have been 1000 deaths an hour if the majority of the world hadn't been locked down.  That had nothing to do with your optimism, it had to do with quarantines and extreme social distancing.

 
shader said:
I don't think that argument is helping you.  There 100% would have been 1000 deaths an hour if the majority of the world hadn't been locked down.  That had nothing to do with your optimism, it had to do with quarantines and extreme social distancing.
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Yeah, that was my point at the time but you and others were convinced it was inevitable, no matter what we did. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
Some things may have to change semi-permanently over years ...
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If current lockdown levels are disruptive to business in America ... could the whole notion of "business hours" and retail "hours open" be modified in some way to lower the number of person-to-person contacts regular people make at work?

Just spitballing ... three-day work weeks (in the office three days, work-from-home the balance of the time)? Retailers limiting number of patrons on the floor during "prime hours", but allowing a free-for-all during "off hours"? Way more drive-up services from retailers -- choose online then drive up to take delivery?

 
Some good summaries of VA/NC hospitals. I'll keep looking for others, while nothing is perfect in a crisis these states seem to have avoided hospitals overruns talked about weeks ago and have beds and ventilators readily available. Hope it continues. 

https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/

https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count#by-congregate-living

SC

https://www.scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19

PA

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85054b06472e4208b02285b8557f24cf

 
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shader said:
Being optimistic that the worst is over, and also stating that we need to open things up, is incredibly infuriating.  That’s not optimism, that’s being blind to the facts and promoting an agenda that will get people killed.

@jplvr stated that he wants to open it up even though he understands that will cause more deaths. I 100% respect and understand that idea. It SUCKS, but it’s reality.

But to say that we need to open it up, and then profess optimism that the worst is over, makes zero sense. 
Click to expand...
I think it's safe to say that you and I, along with others, were really worried about Italy early on and how it might apply to our medical system. Those fears have not materialized yet, even in New York City, right? That medical ship Trump sent was 95% empty according to the last report I saw. I hope the new data is correct, and more antibody/serology tests will continue to prove that out.

I think we can all agree that large gatherings are out for the near future. I hate it for churches, but maybe if they just spread out with smaller services, and maybe run a couple more services a day, they can allow them to reopen too. DEFINITELY need to stop that awkward "shake hands with your neighbor" interlude I've experienced the couple of times a year my dad guilts me into going. I'm really worried about football, but if we lose a season because of this thing, we will just have to deal with that as well.

I've given enough of my opinion on outdoor activities like going to the beach already.

cosjobs said:
Okay, probably false alarm.

I called his roommate (who I know better and is on the lease) and he said they thought another roommate had the virus in ealy March, but she tested clear and has not been sick since, nor has anyone else at the house. I guess he told a very poorly worded anecdote to another worker about eh situation.

Anyway, I think its all okay, but I was really angry for a bit.

Wife and I will discuss tonight and tell him whether or not to return.
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If he had it in February, wouldn't he (most likely) be safe by now?

 
huthut said:
Most mutations are not meaningful and do not really change the virus ...
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You could even go so far as to say "almost no mutations change anything meaningful in any organism". It's just that the Law of Very Large Numbers kicks in eventually. But just "finding mutations" isn't noteworthy on its own.

 
Speaking of football, has anyone thought about how this may affect the supplemental draft? Alabama had some Juniors opt to come back for their Senior season. For example, one I found weird was Najee Harris. I wouldn't expect him to go high, but we all know how short a RB's career can be, and if he's looking at no football this fall, wouldn't he be better off as a pro than an amateur? I'm sure there have to be some college players mulling this over right now.

 
jplvr said:
I think it's safe to say that you and I, along with others, were really worried about Italy early on and how it might apply to our medical system. Those fears have not materialized yet, even in New York City, right? That medical ship Trump sent was 95% empty according to the last report I saw. I hope the new data is correct, and more antibody/serology tests will continue to prove that out.

I think we can all agree that large gatherings are out for the near future. I hate it for churches, but maybe if they just spread out with smaller services, and maybe run a couple more services a day, they can allow them to reopen too. DEFINITELY need to stop that awkward "shake hands with your neighbor" interlude I've experienced the couple of times a year my dad guilts me into going. I'm really worried about football, but if we lose a season because of this thing, we will just have to deal with that as well.

I've given enough of my opinion on outdoor activities like going to the beach already.
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NYC got absolutely hammered.  I feel like those fears did materialize there?  To be honest, I don't think Italy OR NYC got the full blast of this virus.  Both likely shut down just in time. 

 
shader said:
Being optimistic that the worst is over, and also stating that we need to open things up, is incredibly infuriating.  That’s not optimism, that’s being blind to the facts and promoting an agenda that will get people killed.

@jplvr stated that he wants to open it up even though he understands that will cause more deaths. I 100% respect and understand that idea. It SUCKS, but it’s reality.

But to say that we need to open it up, and then profess optimism that the worst is over, makes zero sense. 
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And let me clarify one thing, I think the deaths will happen eventually whether we open up or not. I don't want to open up if it causes more deaths, happening because the case load would overwhelm our medical system.

 
shader said:
NYC got absolutely hammered.  I feel like those fears did materialize there?  To be honest, I don't think Italy OR NYC got the full blast of this virus.  Both likely shut down just in time. 
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The hospital system is not completely overrun though, right? Never ran out of ventilators, and didn't need the numbers projected. I'm not saying it was a nothing burger or anything like that. NYC has some staggering numbers.

 
jplvr said:
And let me clarify one thing, I think the deaths will happen eventually whether we open up or not. I don't want to open up if it causes more deaths, happening because the case load would overwhelm our medical system.
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Well, I think we all use the words "open it up" a bit too loosely.  I know I do.

There are reports that the R0 value was over 5 at one time.  That's extremely high.  I doubt we will ever see an R0 value that high for the rest of the year.  Why?  Because there will be no Disney World, work conventions, religious conventions, sporting events, parades, concerts, etc.  Those things are done for 2020, IMO.

Also, the airlines and transportation system significantly affected the R0.  How many companies are going to curtail travel in a BIG way?  I know mine is, and my company has 100k employees.....

So what will the R0 of this virus be if we take all of the above away, and just open up everything else?  Significantly lower for sure.  But how low?  Low enough to keep from overloading the medical industry?

I encourage everyone to listen to the NYT podcast yesterday.  The expert said that he expects to see a rolling close/open/close/open/close/open of the economy until we get a vaccine.  That's likely how we keep this from overloading the medical industry, and is, imo, what is going to happen in a reactive society like ours.  We will open it up, cases will go up (not as fast as before, but they will still rise), then we will panic and shut it down for another month or two, then re-open, etc, etc.

 
jplvr said:
The hospital system is not completely overrun though, right? Never ran out of ventilators, and didn't need the numbers projected. I'm not saying it was a nothing burger or anything like that. NYC has some staggering numbers.
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Correct.  The worst-case scenarios didn't happen, thanks to the lockdowns.  

 
ChiefD said:
Opening up is one of those scenarios where I can actually see both sides of this thing.

For me, I think it's too early to open up.

But people are hungry. People are scared. It wasn't long ago where I was a paycheck to paycheck guy. And when I think of those times, if I couldn't afford to be able to put food in my kids bellies I would be terrified. 

I just can't judge those people who want things to open up. I've been that guy before. 
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I admit my views are heavily jaded by my Chicken Little view of all this (because my health is compromised) . I get people are scared, but I feel like we live in a "I need it now" society that can't stand to be inconvenienced for a second. People are acting like being locked down for a month was the most painful sacrifice they have ever made in their lives. The people complaining that they actually had to spend time working with their kids on homework?? WTH ?

I like reading history and even looking back at some of the efforts that were needed to gear up for WW2--I mean Americans made sacrifices and they lasted for a long time. That's why I just can't understand the "We have to reopen NOW!!" mentality after just a 30 day period. I am working from home but I can't do it forever and I have played out the scenario of what going back to the office will look like. I can't fathom getting in an elevator at this point (I usually take the stairs anyway) but that situation will be played out ten of thousands of times every day across this country if we reopen things too early. 

I don't think how future generations view our response as citizens to this will be kind. 

 
Doug B said:
How were these reports qualified? Over 5 as a worldwide aggregate? Over 5 in a  specific place at a specific time?
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I have no idea, nor am I married to any number.  My point was just that the R0 factor that we had in February likely will not apply to our society again as long as life is different.  Whatever it was, I will imagine it will be much less now that so many of the mass gatherings won't be happening for awhile.

 
shader said:
Well, I think we all use the words "open it up" a bit too loosely.  I know I do.

There are reports that the R0 value was over 5 at one time.  That's extremely high.  I doubt we will ever see an R0 value that high for the rest of the year.  Why?  Because there will be no Disney World, work conventions, religious conventions, sporting events, parades, concerts, etc.  Those things are done for 2020, IMO.

Also, the airlines and transportation system significantly affected the R0.  How many companies are going to curtail travel in a BIG way?  I know mine is, and my company has 100k employees.....

So what will the R0 of this virus be if we take all of the above away, and just open up everything else?  Significantly lower for sure.  But how low?  Low enough to keep from overloading the medical industry?

I encourage everyone to listen to the NYT podcast yesterday.  The expert said that he expects to see a rolling close/open/close/open/close/open of the economy until we get a vaccine.  That's likely how we keep this from overloading the medical industry, and is, imo, what is going to happen in a reactive society like ours.  We will open it up, cases will go up (not as fast as before, but they will still rise), then we will panic and shut it down for another month or two, then re-open, etc, etc.
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We will see, but I think people are also fearing the "open it up" crowd because they assume it will be back to business as usual. As you state, people around the world are already taking steps to mitigate risk going forward, and while there will be some people who want to prove their bravado by taking more risk, I think the majority of people are going to be at least more cautious.

You wouldn't catch me on a New York subway unless I had a hazmat suit, but I'll go to the beach in nothing but a speedo tomorrow, not that anyone wants to see that.

 
Courtjester said:
I admit my views are heavily jaded by my Chicken Little view of all this (because my health is compromised) . I get people are scared, but I feel like we live in a "I need it now" society that can't stand to be inconvenienced for a second. People are acting like being locked down for a month was the most painful sacrifice they have ever made in their lives. The people complaining that they actually had to spend time working with their kids on homework?? WTH ?

I like reading history and even looking back at some of the efforts that were needed to gear up for WW2--I mean Americans made sacrifices and they lasted for a long time. That's why I just can't understand the "We have to reopen NOW!!" mentality after just a 30 day period. I am working from home but I can't do it forever and I have played out the scenario of what going back to the office will look like. I can't fathom getting in an elevator at this point (I usually take the stairs anyway) but that situation will be played out ten of thousands of times every day across this country if we reopen things too early. 

I don't think how future generations view our response as citizens to this will be kind. 
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It about money.  Millions of Americans are unemployed and/or can't work from home.  Many small businesses are hurting and are in danger of going under for good.  That's people's motivation for opening things up.  And it's going to be a long drawn out process.  None of us will be going to a ball game or concert for a long, long time. 

 
Since shelter in place has been going on for 4-5 weeks there has to be data on virus spread in regards to "essential" businesses, right? Grocery stores, big boxes and pharmacies have had constant streams of people for over a month. It seems like it would be good to have data on them. What is the spread like with the employees? What does community spread look like in the radius around those businesses? Making an appointment for a hair cut and having barber and client wear a mask doesn't seem any less safe than going to Costco, but it would be nice to analyze what has happened with businesses that have been deemed essential and open this whole time.

 
wazoo11 said:
Any one have advice to hunker down and get work from home done? 
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I've been working from home for 4 years.  The main things I have learned about when I am productive and when I am not:

1.  Try to have the same morning routine every day.   You don't have to get up, get dressed and commute, so you can get up later.   But after adding that extra sleep, get up around the same time every day.  Have a cup of coffee, eat breakfast if that's your thing, read some news, then get to work.

2.  Have a dedicated workspace.   I have an office in my house.   Sometimes the bulk of what I'm going to be doing for a day is responding to emails or doing research.  I can do those from my couch.   I've learned that I'm less productive doing that than when I actually use my workspace.   No couch until after work.  

3.  Have rules.   If your door is closed or the red piece of paper is taped to the doorway, you are at work.   Off limits to wife, kids, etc. as if you were at the office.  If it isn't an emergency, it can wait.

4.  Exercise.   I get up every couple of hours and go for a short walk outside if it's nice.   I have a treadmill and walk for 15 minutes if it's raining out.   

5.  No TV.   I'll listen to music or a podcast, but it's too easy to get sucked into a TV show.   

6.  Have work hours.   Yes, you're home and it would be nice to fix that leaky faucet,  change the light fixture or change the oil on the car.   Those are still evening/weekend projects.   

 
ericttspikes said:
Since shelter in place has been going on for 4-5 weeks there has to be data on virus spread in regards to "essential" businesses, right? Grocery stores, big boxes and pharmacies have had constant streams of people for over a month. It seems like it would be good to have data on them. What is the spread like with the employees? What does community spread look like in the radius around those businesses? Making an appointment for a hair cut and having barber and client wear a mask doesn't seem any less safe than going to Costco, but it would be nice to analyze what has happened with businesses that have been deemed essential and open this whole time.
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The answer to that would probably require testing and contact tracing.   Except we don't have those in place.

 
I'm still trying to process what our Governor is doing by opening businesses up Friday.  I think the vast majority of us realize this is not a binary thing - it's not close everything forever and it's not open everything immediately.  So, like most of us I really don't have the correct answer but I have the feeling that this is a little too soon or at the very least the list of businesses being released to be opened doesn't make sense to me.  Why do we need movie theaters and bowling alleys opened right now?  The number of jobs we are talking about are fairly insignificant (obviously not to the folks who work those jobs).  Also gyms, hair salons and barber shops.  I mean, while I understand lives are impacts if you told me I could never go to any of those places I just listed for the rest of my life I would gladly have them disappear to keep people safe.

My hope is that most people will be scared to go out and remain in SiP but I know that's not going to happen.  I already talked to my mother who when I said we wouldn't be going anywhere said something like - it's over Friday, won't you be going to work?  I fully expect to see people flocking to places because they couldn't handle the quarantine.

 
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