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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

Morton Muffley said:
Fourth, if you assume that EVERY country will soon need to re-open without a cure or treatment, then Sweden appears to have weathered the initial wave without the need to impose draconian measure that surely have substantially negative near term implications.

Fifth, it's possible that putting the social distancing onus on citizens forces them to be more aware and will yield a better result than that of countries who close everything and then reopen some things- possibly implicitly communicating to citizens that "whatever is open is safe and we'll let you know, via future SiP orders when to pay attention again"
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Your fourth point really is the crux of the issue.  This is an impossible puzzle to solve - fighting the spread of this disease vs. financial ruin for many.  Then when you start factoring in things like lives saved unrelated to COVID (accidents) and the good we are doing with the environment it gets even more complex.  I'm hoping for states like my own (Georgia) which seems to be rushing things, that your fifth point helps mitigate disaster.  It does seem like we have to accept some level of risk here and most people, including myself, are risk averse.  I think the risk we live with day in and day out we are ignoring to a degree when now faced with this new risk that didn't exist 3 months ago.  I plan to keep my family indoors for as long as I can to where I can begin to accept the risk.  I'm not there yet.

 
Quint said:
as we approach a [possible] easing of SiP n the next few weeks, I’ve been seeing suggestions that temperatures be taken and recorded before entering a building or venue. Q for the qualified to answer: could someone who is COVID-19 positive be asymptomatic and NOT present elevated body temp? 

TIA
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of course

 
parasaurolophus said:
I think it is unlikely because they wouldn't be changing their guidance if it wasn't unlikely. Why would social distancing be the main focus now? 

First it was wash your hands! Then 1 meter. Then 6 feet. Then masks. 

Now plenty are saying that they don't believe surface transmission is the common way this is spreading. 

As far as the bold, plenty of viruses aren't spread this way. But because so many are they start with that assumption being true. Similar to why they thought kids would be incubators of this thing. Because other viruses have higher transmission among children, so this one must. Which is weird to me since the same people that are spending so much time telling people it isnt the flu, treat it just like the flu. SARS and MERS are both previous novel corona viruses. Both also had lesser effects on children. Both also needed close personal contact to spread. 
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What are the plenty? If this was only airborne and wasn't spread the way most viruses are spread, wouldn't we just be at masks and done?

Are we actually changing guidance? Have they said to stop washing your hands it does no good or said that you can get as close as you want just don't forget a mask?

By the way, from the CDC site, it sure doesn't say SARS isn't spread by touch below, it says it is more broadly spread through the air, which likely means that it doesn't "live" as long out in the open. There isn't a virus that can't be spread through surface/contact, it's a matter of how long can it stay active between expulsion by the infected and placement in the eye/mouth/nostril of the next person. It's semantics, but it's basically about the virus travelling from one host to the next and how long it can last in the air or on a surface.

How is SARS spread?

The primary way that SARS appears to spread is by close person-to-person contact. SARS-CoV is thought to be transmitted most readily by respiratory droplets (droplet spread) produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Droplet spread can happen when droplets from the cough or sneeze of an infected person are propelled a short distance (generally up to 3 feet) through the air and deposited on the mucous membranes of the mouth, nose, or eyes of persons who are nearby. The virus also can spread when a person touches a surface or object contaminated with infectious droplets and then touches his or her mouth, nose, or eye(s). In addition, it is possible that SARS-CoV might be spread more broadly through the air (airborne spread) or by other ways that are not now known.

What does “close contact” mean?

Close contact is defined as having cared for or lived with a person known to have SARS or having a high likelihood of direct contact with respiratory secretions and/or body fluids of a patient known to have SARS. Examples include kissing or embracing, sharing eating or drinking utensils, close conversation (within 3 feet), physical examination, and any other direct physical contact between people. Close contact does not include activities such as walking by a person or briefly sitting across a waiting room or office.
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Alex P Keaton said:
Why do you think they are opening without hitting the benchmarks?
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It's probably different for each of them, but I think there are some who see this as a whole conspiracy theory to take down Trump.  I think some have looked at things as carefully as they care to and see no immediate issues so they feel it's ok to open.  This, of course, is looking at their state in a vacuum and either ignoring or not understanding the fact that other states can have an impact on them.  I think there are some that are of the "gubment ain't gonna tell me what I can do!!!!!" mindset.  And I think there are some who want to please Trump.

There's a variety of reasons possible here.  The best way to determine which category they fall into is by looking at how they've made their decisions thus far.  I think it's a safe guess to assume that what motivated them then is what is motivating them now.

ETA:  I also don't have a big issue with states opening based on the guidelines, though I think we WILL see another spike in the fall as a result, and then another one in the spring, then in the fall again.  We'll just keep passing it around since not everyone is on the same page.  I also believe Vegas and Florida will be brought up A LOT in the next couple years.

 
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The Commish said:
It's probably different for each of them, but I think there are some who see this as a whole conspiracy theory to take down Trump.  I think some have looked at things as carefully as they care to and see no immediate issues so they feel it's ok to open.  This, of course, is looking at their state in a vacuum and either ignoring or not understanding the fact that other states can have an impact on them.  I think there are some that are of the "gubment ain't gonna tell me what I can do!!!!!" mindset.  And I think there are some who want to please Trump.

There's a variety of reasons possible here.  The best way to determine which category they fall into is by looking at how they've made their decisions thus far.  I think it's a safe guess to assume that what motivated them then is what is motivating them now.

ETA:  I also don't have a big issue with states opening based on the guidelines, though I think we WILL see another spike in the fall as a result, and then another one in the spring, then in the fall again.  We'll just keep passing it around since not everyone is on the same page.  I also believe Vegas and Florida will be brought up A LOT in the next couple years.
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Thanks, appreciate the reply.  Seems like a good perspective.

For the part about “there are some who want to please Trump”, wouldn’t they do that by following his protocol?   Seems odd.

Probably my last question, as folks will think this is political.  I’m really just trying to understand what is going on in other states.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Thanks, appreciate the reply.  Seems like a good perspective.

For the part about “there are some who want to please Trump”, wouldn’t they do that by following his protocol?   Seems odd.

Probably my last question, as folks will think this is political.  I’m really just trying to understand what is going on in other states.
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This is actually a fantastic question.  Reality is, if Trump doesn't care about the protocols.  His actions make that crystal clear. I doubt those wanting to please him do.  It's rather clear what the political calculation was in "officially" shifting this to the Governors (even though it was with the Governors the whole time) then calling to "liberate" states immediately the next day when his own guidelines say 14 days is what's required to get into the phases.  

I know there's been supposition and :hophead:  over Governors who's states meet the "guidelines" and still don't open will be because of politics.  I haven't seen that sort of vigor in denouncing Trump's actions in which he is going directly against his own "guidelines" a day after he announces them.  I'd think if we were being consistent that would be something those concerned with states playing politics would be discussing.  Perhaps that's going on in the PSF, but I have a sneaking suspicion that it's not.

 
stbugs said:
What are the plenty? If this was only airborne and wasn't spread the way most viruses are spread, wouldn't we just be at masks and done?

Are we actually changing guidance? Have they said to stop washing your hands it does no good or said that you can get as close as you want just don't forget a mask?

By the way, from the CDC site, it sure doesn't say SARS isn't spread by touch below, it says it is more broadly spread through the air, which likely means that it doesn't "live" as long out in the open. There isn't a virus that can't be spread through surface/contact, it's a matter of how long can it stay active between expulsion by the infected and placement in the eye/mouth/nostril of the next person. It's semantics, but it's basically about the virus travelling from one host to the next and how long it can last in the air or on a surface.
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Of course they would never say stop washing your hands. That not even a point. 

Do you seriously doubt that there are many viruses that dont get spread via surfaces? 

And just because something "can" spread via surfaces doesnt mean it does or that it does in any kind of significant pattern. The cdc says zika can spread from female to female scissoring. Or it can spread from male to male sex. Between those two things there is one documented case. So in the discussion of being unlikely bringing that up is irrelevant. 

So sure if somebody sneezed right on a door handle and then somebody else touched it and immediately wiped their face and inhaled while they did it. 

But you wouldnt have infectious disease experts telling you that even if a restaurant worker sneezed on your lettuce and you put it in your mouth you are safe, if they truly thought that touching something and then touching your mouth was a common issue. 

 
shader said:
It is true that this is not a peer-reviewed study.  I also don't doubt for a second that the many in the media will trumpet this particular study for political reasons.  But hopefully this study does make people think before they run their mouth about potential treatments.

There were a lot of people ridiculed in this thread for not believing in the hydroxychloroquine hype, when there was never any scientific reason to believe in it.

Trials are done for a reason.  They take a lot of time to do them right.  You do them because if you don't, the "cure" can definitely be worse than the disease.  That may or may not be the case with this drug, but it blows me away to see how many people still think that the way to beat this drug is to load up on hydroxychloroquine, and they think that because of nothing more than the word of a reality star who has no medical training.
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That's gilding the lily. There are numerous anecdotal stories and observational studies which point to efficacy, especially if administered early. I would also add, much of this anecdotal evidence comes from parties who frankly have nothing to gain by promoting false hope.

I don't know if it's helpful or not, and neither does anyone else because, as you say, proper trials are not complete. But the political issue this became is so absurd it blows me away, and I personally believe Trump is not the cause of the politics around this issue (for once), but rather those who react almost viscerally to everything which comes out of his mouth. 

 
If I had to guess, I'm sure Governors asked Trump if they were required to follow the guidelines and he assured them that they could do what they felt was necessary.  While I agree with the protocols listed and wish states would follow them, it really should be up to them.

 
jamny said:
If I had to guess, I'm sure Governors asked Trump if they were required to follow the guidelines and he assured them that they could do what they felt was necessary.  While I agree with the protocols listed and wish states would follow them, it really should be up to them.
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Fair enough.  I’m glad that we get to do a test of reopening 20-ish states, none of which are near me, to see how this works out.

 
the moops said:
As more and more states open up I am skeptical of the social distancing aspect
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Here is the thing that annoys me so much about the opening up. 

There are ways to open up and be smart about it. It simply doesnt have to be all or nothing which is probably how it will go. 

Last time I went to the grocery store I was furious about how WI is doing this. 

Strip mall. Grocery store, liquor store, sierra trading post, and furniture store. Two stores open, two stores closed. Parking lot completely full. Never seen so many people streaming in and out of a liquor store. Same with grocery store. I didnt even get out of my car. I drove away because I knew it would be annoying. 

Thought to myself it wouldnt be hard to allow all of those stores to be open, but limit the amount of people in each place at a time. The reason for the increased crowd at the other two is simply because of boredom. So if you had 500 people spread over 4 stores instead of two obviously it is much safer. 

But everything is statewide one size fits all. 

Even in Michigan and vermont where wal mart and target cant sell other stuff is stupid. They should just only be allowed to let people in based on their grocery square footage but still have the whole store open. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
Here is the thing that annoys me so much about the opening up. 

There are ways to open up and be smart about it. It simply doesnt have to be all or nothing which is probably how it will go. 

Last time I went to the grocery store I was furious about how WI is doing this. 

Strip mall. Grocery store, liquor store, sierra trading post, and furniture store. Two stores open, two stores closed. Parking lot completely full. Never seen so many people streaming in and out of a liquor store. Same with grocery store. I didnt even get out of my car. I drove away because I knew it would be annoying. 

Thought to myself it wouldnt be hard to allow all of those stores to be open, but limit the amount of people in each place at a time. The reason for the increased crowd at the other two is simply because of boredom. So if you had 500 people spread over 4 stores instead of two obviously it is much safer. 

But everything is statewide one size fits all. 

Even in Michigan and vermont where wal mart and target cant sell other stuff is stupid. They should just only be allowed to let people in based on their grocery square footage but still have the whole store open. 
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I agree.  good posting.  makes sense.

 
So I'm reading something this morning about wide spread testing and some models want to test 30 million Americans/week, while other models want to test 20 million Americans/day.  I'm showing the entire WORLD has run about 22 million tests over the past 2 months, how are we going to do this in one day?  I mean just the logistics and personal required to accurately run that type of tests would be remarkable and I don't see we have a test quick enough to do this anytime this soon if not before a vaccine is developed.  Maybe just being pessimistic here, but these numbers seem ideal in a vacuum but unrealistic, no?

 
guru_007 said:
So I'm reading something this morning about wide spread testing and some models want to test 30 million Americans/week, while other models want to test 20 million Americans/day.  I'm showing the entire WORLD has run about 22 million tests over the past 2 months, how are we going to do this in one day?  I mean just the logistics and personal required to accurately run that type of tests would be remarkable and I don't see we have a test quick enough to do this anytime this soon if not before a vaccine is developed.  Maybe just being pessimistic here, but these numbers seem ideal in a vacuum but unrealistic, no?
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Correct, there has been nothing I've seen that points to our ability to test a hundred thousand in a day. Pie in the sky to throw millions around.

Would be super cool and what ultimately would tell us what we need to know and provide the script for combating this thing but can't see it happening right now.

 
guru_007 said:
So I'm reading something this morning about wide spread testing and some models want to test 30 million Americans/week, while other models want to test 20 million Americans/day.  I'm showing the entire WORLD has run about 22 million tests over the past 2 months, how are we going to do this in one day?  I mean just the logistics and personal required to accurately run that type of tests would be remarkable and I don't see we have a test quick enough to do this anytime this soon if not before a vaccine is developed.  Maybe just being pessimistic here, but these numbers seem ideal in a vacuum but unrealistic, no?
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are you sure it's not 3 million a week or 2 million a week?  If we can get to that 200:1 ratio, we'd be fine and able to trace.  Hell, at this point, I'd settle for 1000:1 given our geographic spread.  But we STILL don't have enough tests and states are being made to figure that part out on their own.  So I don't know how we ever get better testing than we have right now (which isn't close to good enough) without a national coordination.

 
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the moops said:
As more and more states open up I am skeptical of the social distancing aspect
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Understood, you have a right to be and I'm not saying that everyone will, upon opening back up, behave similarly cautiously.  But I do think that the spread of this has become real and that behaviors for many have already changed dramatically.  For others, it may need to get a bit closer to them for them to meaningfully change (that WILL happen).  And for a small few, who unfortunately will continue to garner outsized media coverage, they will NEVER change - they will ALWAYS call it a conspiracy theory.  

Basically, what I am saying is that even the slow learners will learn.  The stakes are too high and too obvious not to.  Some people can watch another person get burned by the iron and learn immediately not to touch it.  Others watch someone else get burned and need to touch it themselves in order to learn firsthand.  But either way, the learning comes.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Of course they would never say stop washing your hands. That not even a point. 

Do you seriously doubt that there are many viruses that dont get spread via surfaces? 

And just because something "can" spread via surfaces doesnt mean it does or that it does in any kind of significant pattern. The cdc says zika can spread from female to female scissoring. Or it can spread from male to male sex. Between those two things there is one documented case. So in the discussion of being unlikely bringing that up is irrelevant. 

So sure if somebody sneezed right on a door handle and then somebody else touched it and immediately wiped their face and inhaled while they did it. 

But you wouldnt have infectious disease experts telling you that even if a restaurant worker sneezed on your lettuce and you put it in your mouth you are safe, if they truly thought that touching something and then touching your mouth was a common issue. 
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Could you link anything that says that CV isn’t spread by surfaces/touch? I haven’t heard of that and you gave 3 examples and the first one I looked up (SARS) said that it can be spread that way.

 
The Commish said:
are you sure it's not 3 million a week or 2 million a week?  If we can get to that 200:1 ratio, we'd be fine and able to trace.  Hell, at this point, I'd settle for 1000:1 given our geographic spread.  But we STILL don't have enough tests and states are being made to figure that part out on their own.  So I don't know how we ever get better testing than we have right now (which isn't close to good enough) without a national coordination.
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

This link states the 30 million/week, 20 million/day guidelines.  Just seems out of base with reality.  Even if we had a magic wand device, scanning this many people per day, tracking and logging them would take an Orwellian state like control of the U.S.  

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for trying to do all we can here, but this seems misdirected.  

 
Terminalxylem said:
I'm not sure I follow your logic here. Can you elaborate?

For the record, there's no guarantee Covid comes back stronger in the fall. Like any RNA virus, SARS-CoV-2 mutates regularly, but most mutations aren't clinically significant. On the contrary, the bulk of mutations occur in non-coding regions of the genome, or result in a virus less fit to replicate. Moreover, multiple genes often encode virulence determinants. And unlike influenza, coronaviruses aren't known to regularly swap surface proteins between strains through antigenic shift, the mechanism usually responsible for pandemic flu.

The longer the virus replicates, the greater chance a meaningful mutation(s) occur. But the evolutionary deck is stacked against the right(wrong?) mutation(s) occurring in the right (wrong?) place(s) to create a deadlier SARS-CoV-2. 

All that being said, it is theoretically possible COVID-19 could get worse with second and subsequent "waves". But it's also possible it becomes less virulent, as ultimately it's not in the virus' best interest to kill off too many hosts.

The bigger problem is adding another widespread infection to a medical system designed to function near-capacity with the existing menu of disease. We kinda lucked out COVID-19 arrived as flu was trailing off in the US. Hopefully all the NPI adopted to curb COVID-19 will curtail other infections as the next flu season approaches.
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Thanks for all of the above.  Your knowledge and clarity of thought has been very helpful - to me and many others.

FWIW, the bolded above is what I was trying to communicate.  Although I see that in writing my prediction it came across as fact, when indeed I was merely attempting to demonstrate how this could all play out as we prepare for the worst, and then deal with the blowback (again) of appearing alarmist because the worst didn't happen.  I have previously likened it to building a ladder that will support a 350 pound man even though it is unlikley that any 350 pound man will ever climb your ladder.  We don't chastise the company for making ladders (at added expense) that with features that aren't necessary.  Anyway, am rambling so will stop here. :)

 
guru_007 said:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

This link states the 30 million/week, 20 million/day guidelines.  Just seems out of base with reality.  Even if we had a magic wand device, scanning this many people per day, tracking and logging them would take an Orwellian state like control of the U.S.  

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for trying to do all we can here, but this seems misdirected.  
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Yeah...knowing we don't have the kits or people to process them this isn't going to happen.  That's been the issue from the very beginning and continues to go on unaddressed.  This ain't happenin'  

 
The Commish said:
It's probably different for each of them, but I think there are some who see this as a whole conspiracy theory to take down Trump.  I think some have looked at things as carefully as they care to and see no immediate issues so they feel it's ok to open.  This, of course, is looking at their state in a vacuum and either ignoring or not understanding the fact that other states can have an impact on them.  I think there are some that are of the "gubment ain't gonna tell me what I can do!!!!!" mindset.  And I think there are some who want to please Trump.

There's a variety of reasons possible here.  The best way to determine which category they fall into is by looking at how they've made their decisions thus far.  I think it's a safe guess to assume that what motivated them then is what is motivating them now.

ETA:  I also don't have a big issue with states opening based on the guidelines, though I think we WILL see another spike in the fall as a result, and then another one in the spring, then in the fall again.  We'll just keep passing it around since not everyone is on the same page.  I also believe Vegas and Florida will be brought up A LOT in the next couple years.
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There's a forum for this.  You might have heard of it???

 
I think the point is we could never realistically get to the 20 million/week testing.  Where would all the trained personnel come from in the next 6 months?  How about the labs, etc.

I do think our real hope of massive testing is the mass production of the 5/15 minute test that was approved by the FDA a couple of weeks ago.  I got the indication an individual would be able to perform the test and not require trained medical personnel, but how does that help the societal documentation needed to help make future decisions.  Still need some type of massive personnel effort to accurately record all the data.

This would also require the production of 20 Million tests a week and I don't see that happening in next year either.

 
guru_007 said:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

This link states the 30 million/week, 20 million/day guidelines.  Just seems out of base with reality.  Even if we had a magic wand device, scanning this many people per day, tracking and logging them would take an Orwellian state like control of the U.S.  

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for trying to do all we can here, but this seems misdirected.  
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It’s not misdirected.  It’s perfectly directed.  Tons of energy should be put forth in a focused manner to achieve this.  Top down focus.  Like what you would do to fight a war.

Instead, we are behaving like my ADHD daughter before taking her meds in the morning.

 
Ksquared said:
I think the point is we could never realistically get to the 20 million/week testing.  Where would all the trained personnel come from in the next 6 months?  How about the labs, etc.

I do think our real hope of massive testing is the mass production of the 5/15 minute test that was approved by the FDA a couple of weeks ago.  I got the indication an individual would be able to perform the test and not require trained medical personnel, but how does that help the societal documentation needed to help make future decisions.  Still need some type of massive personnel effort to accurately record all the data.

This would also require the production of 20 Million tests a week and I don't see that happening in next year either.
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Sure we could.  It’s entirely possible.  It just requires focus and leadership.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Sure we could.  It’s entirely possible.  It just requires focus and leadership.
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Absolutely agree and think it's entirely possible. I also think we only have 1 of your two requirements so while possible, don't see it happening.

Doug B said:
A lot of air coming out of the balloon with these early attempts at sampling.

Can't some dam people do this responsibly and with some hard-arsze scientific rigor? Must every-dam-body be working an angle?  :rant:
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I get everyone is throwing stuff on the wall with this but it's been said over & over in this thread, there is no magic bullet to this. Mother Nature doesn't typically work that way so no reason to think it would be different with this virus. My opinion of course.

 
beer 30 said:
I get everyone is throwing stuff on the wall with this but it's been said over & over in this thread, there is no magic bullet to this. 
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Understood. I'm not asking for a magic bullet -- I'm asking for sampling of "background radiation" infections in apparent healthies/low-symptom folks to be done in a rigorous manner so that the results hold up to review better than wet Kleenex  :shrug:  

EDIT: Despite the timing of my post ... I wasn't addressing the "20 million tests per day!" thing. Might have seemed like I was. A few hundred thousand tests spread out over several weeks would probably be plenty of sampling.

 
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Just stop....this is not a right wing thing ... tired of the left slipping this crap in all time. 

It is realistically looking at the process which is much more complicated than many arm chair QBs in here believe.  Understand that 20 Million tests in a week are actually giving about 100 tests every second, 7 days a week, 8 hours a day.  Every test has to be given, test determination, recorded and processed.  Every single test.  On top of this the error in all these test require a second sample taken at the same time to make them statistically significant.  This is not a simple issue to ramp up.  Even in WWII when we shut everything down to produce war products, it took 18 month before products started to be ramped up.

 
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mcintyre1 said:
Well, our company held out for as long as we could, but a 40% drop in our customers over the last month means I'm finding out if I still have a job in an hour. My best friend also works here and we're in different groups. 
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On the chopping block, thankfully my friend (who just bought a new house and has an 18 month old) is safe. Now to figure out how unemployment works... haven't not had a job since I was 15.

 
Ksquared said:
Just stop....this is not a right wing thing ... tired of the left slipping this crap in all time. 

It is realistically looking at the process which is much more complicated than many arm chair QBs in here believe.  Understand that 20 Million tests in a week are actually giving about 10 tests every second, 7 days a week, 8 hours a day.  Every test has to be given, test determination, recorded and processed.  Every single test.  On top of this the error in all these test require a second sample taken at the same time to make them statistically significant.  This is not a simple issue to ramp up.  Even in WWII when we shut everything down to produce war products, it took 18 month before products started to be ramped up.
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Yes, OK.  I agree that 20MM is not possible. Is more than 160k possible with better leadership and use of all the powers available to the Federal Government?

 
mcintyre1 said:
On the chopping block, thankfully my friend (who just bought a new house and has an 18 month old) is safe. Now to figure out how unemployment works... haven't not had a job since I was 15.
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Sorry to hear that. Being in Minnesota though, you should be in decent shape as far as unemployment goes. From what I hear, it's slick as ####, unlike a lot of other states. 

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Yes, OK.  I agree that 20MM is not possible. Is more than 160k possible with better leadership and use of all the powers available to the Federal Government?
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Fair enough and I do agree with this. 

I still think everything is screwed up behind the scenes from what is coming out as an inept portion of the CDC (the recent release of info about the FDA reviewing the CDC lab procedures in January and how messed up everything was...not just the tests kits that would not work).  Trump is the face of this, but I think down the road certain departments in the CDC will be roasted for their lack of professionalism and preparation.  Especially with their insistence that non-CDC approved lab testing could not be done early on (Washington State Flu group).

 
Doug B said:
Understood. I'm not asking for a magic bullet -- I'm asking for sampling of "background radiation" infections in apparent healthies/low-symptom folks to be done in a rigorous manner so that the results hold up to review better than wet Kleenex  :shrug:  
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Oh yea man, get that. Wasn't directed at you, more a general statement about all the different threads of information being promoted out there right now.

I read that twitter feed about the study and while I understand the basis of it I'm by no means intelligent enough to speak about it. Seems like they cut corners and made assumptions that kind of flies in the face of statistics. But that's what a proper peer review is for. What frustrates me is this makes it into the general populace, becomes cannon and now there are folks making pretty far reaching decisions based on a study that, at a minimum, appears to have some flaws with the logic used to ascertain the numbers they are presenting.

 
Ksquared said:
I think the point is we could never realistically get to the 20 million/week testing.  Where would all the trained personnel come from in the next 6 months?  How about the labs, etc.

I do think our real hope of massive testing is the mass production of the 5/15 minute test that was approved by the FDA a couple of weeks ago.  I got the indication an individual would be able to perform the test and not require trained medical personnel, but how does that help the societal documentation needed to help make future decisions.  Still need some type of massive personnel effort to accurately record all the data.

This would also require the production of 20 Million tests a week and I don't see that happening in next year either.
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These are PCR tests...they aren't rocket science.  It's the same process many of us learned in high school and most of us in college if you took Biology 101 and it's lab.  While neither aspect (the kits or the staffing) is all that difficult to get set up, the kits would be the prerequisite.  Without the kits, it doesn't matter how many people you have to process them.  I can't fathom the "difficulty" behind putting a swab, a collection tube and instructions into a bag.  There really is no excuse for not having enough test kits.

ETA:  This is not to say that 20M is realistic.  It isn't.  But a couple million a week is.  And that would be a HUGE increase from what we have now.  We have to remember that we are continuing to play catch up because testing has been inadequate from the beginning.  Had we been sufficiently testing this whole time, 20M would be in the rearview mirror.  The number is only going to get larger as we move forward with no real action.

 
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I believe the issue is creating the proper reagents in mass quantity.  Obviously quality control is paramount and probably large amounts could be produced quickly (many mass produced items are similar) but quality suffers.  You cannot have the quality suffer on these tests so it would have to be ramped up slowly, with constant verification of reagents.

 
Ksquared said:
Fair enough and I do agree with this. 

I still think everything is screwed up behind the scenes from what is coming out as an inept portion of the CDC (the recent release of info about the FDA reviewing the CDC lab procedures in January and how messed up everything was...not just the tests kits that would not work).  Trump is the face of this, but I think down the road certain departments in the CDC will be roasted for their lack of professionalism and preparation.  Especially with their insistence that non-CDC approved lab testing could not be done early on (Washington State Flu group).
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I want to see how those decisions were made and how they were impacted by changes made to the CDC before I clear Trump.  But the CDC effed up bigtime.

 
Ksquared said:
I believe the issue is creating the proper reagents in mass quantity.  Obviously quality control is paramount and probably large amounts could be produced quickly (many mass produced items are similar) but quality suffers.  You cannot have the quality suffer on these tests so it would have to be ramped up slowly, with constant verification of reagents.
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It's a formula....that formula doesn't change if you make an ounce of reagent or 10 gallons.

 
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