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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (20 Viewers)

Jayrod said:
Death rates are absolutely critical to all decisions that are being made and are likely the most important thing to know about this virus
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I have to ask - would you rather know the exact death rate with 100% certainty, or would you rather know with 100% certainty whether you can contract the virus a second time?  I choose the latter.

 
TheWinz said:
I have to ask - would you rather know the exact death rate with 100% certainty, or would you rather know with 100% certainty whether you can contract the virus a second time?  I choose the latter.
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Since most people haven’t been infected yet, I’d rather know the death rate.  Easy choice.  

 
Jayrod said:
Death rates are absolutely critical to all decisions that are being made and are likely the most important thing to know about this virus.  It directly effects what we do, when we do it and how we do it.

We can't "know" what the number is for sure, but we can sure make an educated guess.  Acting like it is a pointless argument while two people in here are declaring some certainty at it being somewhere between "0.1% and 0.5%" is simply not true, because it will effect people's behavior.
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It's a made up number at the moment....if you want to "effect people's behavior" make up a bad number.  Simple enough.  I am certainly not saying it's not important.  I am saying it's unknowable at the moment and if one cares about accuracy, they will take that into consideration...even for estimates being thrown out there.  

Jayrod said:
The powers that be are in a struggle between the economic risks of shutdowns and the healthcare risks of allowing society to interact and spread the disease.
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Who are you referring to as "the powers that be" right now?  I see ZERO struggle federally and very little struggle at the state level.  Most of them appear to be submitting to emotion and opening back up.  I wish they'd follow the guidelines personally, but here we are.  I guess following the guidelines only matters depending on what letter is by the name?  This will simply solidify the new normal of "whack-a-mole" and no, I think the chance of states shutting back down if they don't meet the guidelines is as close to zero as one can get....it's not going to happen.  

 
jobarules said:
Of course they do. They can stay home. The people who get stuck in the crossfire are the health care workers. 
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Health care workers, essential workers, non-essential workers who are forced back to work by their employers and people who have to go to essential places like grocery stores and pharmacies. But to be fair, not too many people fall into those categories, so you’re right.

 
Jayrod said:
Death rates are absolutely critical to all decisions that are being made and are likely the most important thing to know about this virus.  It directly effects what we do, when we do it and how we do it.

We can't "know" what the number is for sure, but we can sure make an educated guess.  Acting like it is a pointless argument while two people in here are declaring some certainty at it being somewhere between "0.1% and 0.5%" is simply not true, because it will effect people's behavior.

As far as the bolded, absolutely yes it will make a difference.

The powers that be are in a struggle between the economic risks of shutdowns and the healthcare risks of allowing society to interact and spread the disease.  It is an imaginary graph of lives ruined and risked from economic factors vs lives risked from the virus.  If 70% of our population eventually get the virus, 0.1% is about 230,000 deaths.

Again, it is the most relevant number in this whole discussion and worth calling out when people are stating that their poorly rationalized numbers are correct.
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As it has been mentioned before, at least to me it feels like we are already committed to the shutdown to the point where opening up will not effect the economy much. Just because you can open restaurants does not mean you can force people to go to them, and from polling that has been linked around here (both national and FBG) a significant portion of the population will continue to shelter in place. 

It seems like it is a false dichotomy where it is either deaths or economy, but you could potentially have options such as deaths and no economy where the disease keeps circulating stronger due to more people being out and about, but still not enough people out to impact economic conditions much as sort of a worst of both worlds type scenario. Maybe some sort of industrial type businesses can improve if it is a factory making things for pre-existing customers who still need them, but theaters, restaurants, and anything like that are screwed whether we open or not. 

Seeing as how numerous states are doing many different things, it will be an interesting science experiment that will read out over the next 2-4 weeks or so, hopefully everything looks good and we can continue to later phases the sort of getting back to work plan.

 
Went for a drive down the Beaches today. They open tomorrow but plenty of people walking on the sidewalks, walkways etc. Saw maybe 500 people total if I had to guess and only 4 of them with masks. Gonna be ugly. 

 
Capella said:
Went for a drive down the Beaches today. They open tomorrow but plenty of people walking on the sidewalks, walkways etc. Saw maybe 500 people total if I had to guess and only 4 of them with masks. Gonna be ugly. 
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wow...5? That's crazy. I guess the Atlanta video is real.

 
I think one science experiment that has received little attention is what happened in grocery stores since the shutdowns began. We've got over 6 weeks of evidence that simple measures such as distancing and voluntary use of masks by patrons and mandatory use of masks by store workers, has not led to a surge in illness in either patrons or (more importantly) workers. That's a big piece of anecdotal data that says our reopenings might not go so poorly if we use some simple precaution.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
I think one science experiment that has received little attention is what happened in grocery stores since the shutdowns began. We've got over 6 weeks of evidence that simple measures such as distancing and voluntary use of masks by patrons and mandatory use of masks by store workers, has not led to a surge in illness in either patrons or (more importantly) workers. That's a big piece of anecdotal data that says our reopenings might not go so poorly if we use some simple precaution.
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I agree with this. However, grocery shopping by yourself is a very non-social event. You put your mask on befoire you go in, make your rounds, stay clear of people, pay, get out to your car abd off with the mask.

What do those same people do when going to a coffee shop, or trying on clothes, or gathering with friends, etc.

Most people can handle "go to grocery store, keep distance, wear a mask". I am doubtful of our ability to maintain those sorts of rules in other situations though

 
The Commish said:
It's a made up number at the moment....if you want to "effect people's behavior" make up a bad number.  Simple enough.  I am certainly not saying it's not important.  I am saying it's unknowable at the moment and if one cares about accuracy, they will take that into consideration...even for estimates being thrown out there.  

Who are you referring to as "the powers that be" right now?  I see ZERO struggle federally and very little struggle at the state level.  Most of them appear to be submitting to emotion and opening back up.  I wish they'd follow the guidelines personally, but here we are.  I guess following the guidelines only matters depending on what letter is by the name?  This will simply solidify the new normal of "whack-a-mole" and no, I think the chance of states shutting back down if they don't meet the guidelines is as close to zero as one can get....it's not going to happen.  
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"Made up" as in pulled a random number out of a hat, or the best guess from scientific minds using the most current and accurate information possible?  The first option is what some people seem to be doing in this thread.  The second option is what people are doing to say the death rate is 1% plus.

Powers that be include governmental agencies and business owners.  Hopefully many of them are giving in to real data, not just "emotion".  There is plenty of emotion on both sides of the debate so hard to say what they are "giving in to".

 
jamny said:
wow...5? That's crazy. I guess the Atlanta video is real.
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Absolutely believe the video is real. I see it in Phoenix all the time. The grocery store I work at is near a retirement community full of high risk people and I say now about 80% of people are wearing masks. But if I go just 5 miles away there are stores where it’s closer to 25% and a couple times (Target) there were only a couple people besides me wearing a mask including employees. Masks will come off in a lot of places when the restrictions are relaxed.

 
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the moops said:
I agree with this. However, grocery shopping by yourself is a very non-social event. You put your mask on befoire you go in, make your rounds, stay clear of people, pay, get out to your car abd off with the mask.

What do those same people do when going to a coffee shop, or trying on clothes, or gathering with friends, etc.

Most people can handle "go to grocery store, keep distance, wear a mask". I am doubtful of our ability to maintain those sorts of rules in other situations though
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It's my hope, rather I believe, those same requirements of masks should be mandatory in all public businesses for the time being. When I look at reopening restrictions, masks do seem to be a part of almost every plan as well as capacity limits and distancing. Looking at grocery stores and the packing of them without major flare-ups, it appears these basic measures work.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
I think one science experiment that has received little attention is what happened in grocery stores since the shutdowns began. We've got over 6 weeks of evidence that simple measures such as distancing and voluntary use of masks by patrons and mandatory use of masks by store workers, has not led to a surge in illness in either patrons or (more importantly) workers. That's a big piece of anecdotal data that says our reopenings might not go so poorly if we use some simple precaution.
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The simple precautions are the problem. Many won’t even do them and the areas with the worst compliance are the ones that are opening up too soon. For me it’s about opening up responsibility so that we can stay open and that’s not what’s happening now.

 
jamny said:
wow...5? That's crazy. I guess the Atlanta video is real.
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We were shocked. Some of the walkways over the bridges are small so you have no choice but to be shoulder to shoulder and nobody had a mask on. My wife thinks 2 of the people we saw with them on were Scientologists — maybe they were right all along lol. 

 
the moops said:
I agree with this. However, grocery shopping by yourself is a very non-social event. You put your mask on befoire you go in, make your rounds, stay clear of people, pay, get out to your car abd off with the mask.

What do those same people do when going to a coffee shop, or trying on clothes, or gathering with friends, etc.

Most people can handle "go to grocery store, keep distance, wear a mask". I am doubtful of our ability to maintain those sorts of rules in other situations though
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Yeah the socializing aspect is where a lot of the precautions break down even in the grocery stores. I see it so often that people are shopping fine until they see a friend or neighbor, then they take their mask off to talk to him. Or when they come to the counter to ask a question or pickup a prescription.

The truth is that much of the spread could be stopped if people used masks properly, practiced proper hand cleaning and kept their hands away from their faces.

 
Biff84 said:
The simple precautions are the problem. Many won’t even do them and the areas with the worst compliance are the ones that are opening up too soon. For me it’s about opening up responsibility so that we can stay open and that’s not what’s happening now.
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But it is rather simple isn't it? If for instance a governor authorizes barbershops to reopen provided capacity restrictions and mandatory usage of masks by workers and customers, in order to stay open, why would that be a difficult obstacle to overcome? You violate the the terms, you get shutdown again.

 
Biff84 said:
Yeah the socializing aspect is where a lot of the precautions break down even in the grocery stores. I see it so often that people are shopping fine until they see a friend or neighbor, then they take their mask off to talk to him. Or when they come to the counter to ask a question or pickup a prescription.

The truth is that much of the spread could be stopped if people used masks properly, practiced proper hand cleaning and kept their hands away from their faces.
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Let's say your example in bold is being repeated far and often all over the country. Where is the surge in grocery employee illness or public illness traced back to their visit to grocery stores? As far as I can tell, it simply doesn't exist.

 
TheWinz said:
lakerstan said:
Outstanding news, if true.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-scientists-conclude-people-cannot-be-infected-twice-11981721
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Here is a line directly from that article...

"Researchers at the South Korean centre for disease control and prevention (CDC) now say it is impossible for the COVID-19 virus to reactivate in human bodies."

It boggles my mind that we still have to say, "if true".  Pay me big bucks as a recovered volunteer, and you can do whatever you want to me.  With so much research already done, this question should've been answered already.
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The virus hasn't been around long enough to know all that much definitively about re-infection. From what I've seen, I believe "quick reinfection" is pretty much ruled out. But the prospect of reinfection after medium-term time frames -- say, ~6 months to ~2 years -- is still an open question.

The high level of certainty we seek in COVID information is still about 12-24 months away, not the least because so much takes time to truly evaluate and build consensus. Not that we don't know a lot at this point ... more that there's still so much left to unfold, and thus to learn.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Let's say your example in bold is being repeated far and often all over the country. Where is the surge in grocery employee illness or public illness traced back to their visit to grocery stores? As far as I can tell, it simply doesn't exist.
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How many cases have been actually been traced back to their source? It’s true that grocery stores haven’t been work place hotspots like meat packing plants but it’s impossible to know if grocery stores are sources of infections without extensive and intense contact tracing. I’d imagine a pretty high percentage of positive cases have no clue where they got it from.

 
Doug B said:
The virus hasn't been around long enough to know all that much definitively about re-infection. From what I've seen, I believe "quick reinfection" is pretty much ruled out. But the prospect of reinfection after medium-term time frames -- say, ~6 months to ~2 years -- is still an open question.

The high level of certainty we seek in COVID information is still about 12-24 months away, not the least because so much takes time to truly evaluate and build consensus. Not that we don't know a lot at this point ... more that there's still so much left to unfold, and thus to learn.
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Using your logic, this article is 100% false, correct?  After all, these are South Korean CDC researchers, and they are saying, with 100% certainty, that contracting the virus a second time is impossible.  Not highly unlikely, not for only a set amount of time - they are saying never ever again.

 
Biff84 said:
How many cases have been actually been traced back to their source? It’s true that grocery stores haven’t been work place hotspots like meat packing plants but it’s impossible to know if grocery stores are sources of infections without extensive and intense contact tracing. I’d imagine a pretty high percentage of positive cases have no clue where they got it from.
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If there was the slightest hint of a problem, do you think it wouldn't have been traced and uncovered by now?

 
Mr Anonymous said:
But it is rather simple isn't it? If for instance a governor authorizes barbershops to reopen provided capacity restrictions and mandatory usage of masks by workers and customers, in order to stay open, why would that be a difficult obstacle to overcome? You violate the the terms, you get shutdown again.
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I’m all for that but I doubt the current group of protesters will go for it. Nor will governors in several states.

 
TheWinz said:
Now let me ask you a simple question - what do you think the lowest & highest possible death rates are?
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I don’t know, as I don’t study viruses for a living. Based on all info to date, a range of 0.5% to 2% seems like a good 90% confidence interval.  But if a true expert came in here with a different number, I would defer to that.

 
Capella said:
We were shocked. Some of the walkways over the bridges are small so you have no choice but to be shoulder to shoulder and nobody had a mask on. My wife thinks 2 of the people we saw with them on were Scientologists — maybe they were right all along lol. 
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Obviously NYC is a different animal so when we go to the park near us, probably 85% wear masks and most of the rest keep their distance. Admittedly, when we go for walks around the neighborhood, not near the park, we carry a mask but don't generally wear them. But we also can walk for 20 minutes and cross paths with maybe a dozen people. We either walk in the street or cross the street when there's any chance of getting too close. I'm sure we are even being looked down at but if everyone keeps like 10 feet away from each other, even without a mask, it can work.

But that video from Atlanta with everyone crossing the intersection like nothing is happening is just so disturbing.

 
Biff84 said:
I’m all for that but I doubt the current group of protesters will go for it. Nor will governors in several states.
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You and I are in 100% agreement in how dumb and unfortunate that would be. The alternative to stay shutdown because people can't be trusted, just isn't feasible though. I'm probably spoiled because where I live (Las Vegas) everyone is wearing masks in grocery stores.

 
bostonfred said:
Movie theaters opening in Texas

I think it's too early for this, and that this is practically an unethical experiment on human subjects to see how well these new rules work.  

But

Interesting to see how they're planning to approach this. Plexiglass between seats.  Temperature checks.  Asking people if anyone in their family has been sick in the last 14 days. This may be the model for the rest of the country soon. 
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I get a theatre owner wanting to open up and make money again......but what kind of patron really need to go thru this to go to the movies?  

 
Mr Anonymous said:
If there was the slightest hint of a problem, do you think it wouldn't have been traced and uncovered by now?
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How would you be able to prove it? You would need someone to test positive after staying isolated other than going to that one store. And even that would be hard to fully prove without knowing the employee or customer who provided the exposure.

Of all the positive cases, how many have been traced to a source? Everything else is attributed to community spread. Where is the community spreading it if it’s not grocery stores and big box stores that have remained busy?

 
bostonfred said:
Movie theaters opening in Texas

I think it's too early for this, and that this is practically an unethical experiment on human subjects to see how well these new rules work.  

But

Interesting to see how they're planning to approach this. Plexiglass between seats.  Temperature checks.  Asking people if anyone in their family has been sick in the last 14 days. This may be the model for the rest of the country soon. 
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If this becomes the new norm, I hope they start releasing movies for immediate rental at home.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
I don’t know, as I don’t study viruses for a living. Based on all info to date, a range of 0.5% to 2% seems like a good 90% confidence interval.  But if a true expert came in here with a different number, I would defer to that.
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Thank you for providing a number range.  Now, if the true number were anywhere in that range, are you saying you'd rather know that number versus whether or not you can be reinfected?  What good does knowing whether it's 1.1 or 1.2% do?  Will you change anything you do?  Now, if your number range was something like 0.5% to 50%, I could see wanting to know that exact number, because it changes everything.  And FTR, I tend to agree with your range.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
I don’t know, as I don’t study viruses for a living. Based on all info to date, a range of 0.5% to 2% seems like a good 90% confidence interval.  But if a true expert came in here with a different number, I would defer to that.
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I totally agree w that range too. 
 

Although it should be pointed out that if you become symptomatic and get major symptoms, your risk is much higher. 

 
I went to two different box stores this morning (had to grab some toiletries at one and tools at the other), and though Florida is at least moving towards reopening, I was glad to see the vast majority of people, myself included, wearing masks. I avoided touching things others might have as best as I could, and it all went well.

 
Jayrod said:
"Made up" as in pulled a random number out of a hat, or the best guess from scientific minds using the most current and accurate information possible?  The first option is what some people seem to be doing in this thread.  The second option is what people are doing to say the death rate is 1% plus.

Powers that be include governmental agencies and business owners.  Hopefully many of them are giving in to real data, not just "emotion".  There is plenty of emotion on both sides of the debate so hard to say what they are "giving in to".
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I suspect the answer to your questions is "it depends".  There are areas of the world where the "most current and accurate information possible" lends itself to 1%+  South Korea is a good example...probably our best example given they are considered one of the premier models for testing that many states (and countries) have tried to model.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
But it is rather simple isn't it? If for instance a governor authorizes barbershops to reopen provided capacity restrictions and mandatory usage of masks by workers and customers, in order to stay open, why would that be a difficult obstacle to overcome? You violate the the terms, you get shutdown again.
Click to expand...
Not saying this is not a reason to go hard on mandatory masks ... but for some time after that order goes out locally, many cops will literally be spending all shift, every shift for months enforcing mask usage in private businesses. Mask-wearing here has rolled back a lot since Easter weekend.

 
Jayrod said:
Death rates are absolutely critical to all decisions that are being made and are likely the most important thing to know about this virus.  It directly effects what we do, when we do it and how we do it.

We can't "know" what the number is for sure, but we can sure make an educated guess.  Acting like it is a pointless argument while two people in here are declaring some certainty at it being somewhere between "0.1% and 0.5%" is simply not true, because it will effect people's behavior.

As far as the bolded, absolutely yes it will make a difference.

The powers that be are in a struggle between the economic risks of shutdowns and the healthcare risks of allowing society to interact and spread the disease.  It is an imaginary graph of lives ruined and risked from economic factors vs lives risked from the virus.  If 70% of our population eventually get the virus, 0.1% is about 230,000 deaths.

Again, it is the most relevant number in this whole discussion and worth calling out when people are stating that their poorly rationalized numbers are correct.
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You implied this, but death rates are only important as we don’t have strong, heck ... adequate, testing. If we had a predictive indicator for making decisions, we wouldn’t need to use a lagging indicator. 

 
Doug B said:
Not saying this is not a reason to go hard on mandatory masks ... but for some time after that order goes out locally, many cops will literally be spending all shift, every shift for months enforcing mask usage in private businesses. Mask-wearing here has rolled back a lot since Easter weekend.
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I think then the answer is deterrence. A stiff penalty that propels businesses to enforce restrictions at their doors. Police could do random drop ins and write hefty fines and close down businesses in violation for a set period. Seems like something that would make the news when it happened and get everyone's attention. After all, we have a similar dynamic at play now with businesses required to shut their doors. Whenever one tries to defy it, it doesn't end well for the business and it often makes national news. That deterrent seems to be doing the trick.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
I don’t know, as I don’t study viruses for a living. Based on all info to date, a range of 0.5% to 2% seems like a good 90% confidence interval.  But if a true expert came in here with a different number, I would defer to that.
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It's nowhere close to 2%.

I'll give anybody action on an over/under if they want to back it up with money.

 
TheWinz said:
Thank you for providing a number range.  Now, if the true number were anywhere in that range, are you saying you'd rather know that number versus whether or not you can be reinfected?  What good does knowing whether it's 1.1 or 1.2% do?  Will you change anything you do?  Now, if your number range was something like 0.5% to 50%, I could see wanting to know that exact number, because it changes everything.  And FTR, I tend to agree with your range.
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Well again, I don’t know what the real number is, so it really isn’t meaningful to quote my guesswork.  Because that’s what it is - guesswork.

Based on my demographic, it would be really nice to know if my odds of dying (if infected) were 10%?  5%?  1%?  0.0001%?

That matters more to be, partly because it’s appears highly likely based on everything we know that we can’t get reinfected anytime soon if infected once....

But again, that’s just my take.  You clearly disagree, and that’s fine too.  

 
Coach Morris Buttermaker said:
Hospitals were reporting pneumonia deaths as Covid to get $. 16k got moved to pneumonia/covid. Only 5800 flu deaths? No way.
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Where can I find an article on this? Tried a search of "16000 covid cases changed cdc" didnt get anything. I know the numbers look different so obviously something happened, just want to read about why the change, etc. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
Coach Morris Buttermaker said:
Hospitals were reporting pneumonia deaths as Covid to get $. 16k got moved to pneumonia/covid. Only 5800 flu deaths? No way.
Click to expand...
Where can I find an article on this? Tried a search of "16000 covid cases changed cdc" didnt get anything. I know the numbers look different so obviously something happened, just want to read about why the change, etc. 
Click to expand...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?fbclid=IwAR2YGdSiJ1zk6mktakCLsCqjU-tEq9XsvLMK2fGG0vmHPIsAdMgl8C13cOU

I don't know what they are talking about, here are the CDC numbers.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Based on my demographic, it would be really nice to know if my odds of dying (if infected) were 10%?  5%?  1%?  0.0001%
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This would be nice to know, but the push has been to make it seem like there arent higher risk groups.

Yes everybody ignore all that data worldwide and from the US and read this quote from an ER doctor about one case that we are withholding some details about. 

 
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