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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

Weird. With a few exceptions, everything i have seen being done in CA has been at the county level. 
If the county is stricter then it goes by county order. Every area has it's own unique situation. I'd like to hear how other states are doing with curb side shopping for clothes in smaller stores, not like Target. You need to try it on. There are a couple counties that's not a big name that have defied orders. One place way up north opened his small restaurant at full capacity. Another in LA had full capacity too. I get the going broke aspect. But you know the criteria is going to be social distancing so why not at least do that when defying the orders. People don't get that asymptomatics can spread the virus. It's not about you but the souls you may infect who God forbid has them at high risk for a long harsh struggle or worse. I'm glad at least my family is not going to change until a vaccine is out. Parents are retired. Bro may go back to teaching in the fall but schools won't open if they aren't properly set up to do so. For those who have rebels in their family, I hope they at least try to stay safe.

 
Yes, unfortunately. I've mentioned the gf and her job in home healthcare sales. They had a 30 person, face to face sales meeting today because the d-bag CEO said, "if the beaches are open, we're open." Michael Scott could run a business better than these idiots, but this has to be the dumbest thing I've seen from them to date. 

Also spent some time trying to convince some guy from Nashville it wasn't a good thing he saw restaurants "packed" and "filled" last weekend when he got out... "no masks anywhere."

Saw a thread on Rivals.com last week where "a resident lib" asked if people were willing to go sit in a packed stadium right now to watch football, and like the politically motivated threads here run, it was 86% on yes with those guys. I tried arguing with some of them today like this: "if you want to stick it to libs and prove we should have never shut down as much as we did, why wouldn't you at least take some minor precautions with social distancing during the reopen?" Their favorite line is, "I'm not old or fat, so why should I care?" I got that response plenty of times today. 

Edit: I don't like using ignore. Tried it once on a message board, and it was a disaster. I'm on double digits now with that forum, I think. All flubros just spamming away with the same, idiotic, recycled hot takes.
The worst part about it is that it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy for awhile.  These guys are going to congregate, have epic parties and gatherings (been seeing more multi-car parties in my neighborhood), and nothing will happen.  Yet.

 
Looks like they are packed in there very well. 
Rope them up and quarantine them all together. I would love these people to live in Iran late 70s style. You don't dare defy orders. It'd be at min prison time for you, and prison is not like here. It's a real prison.

 
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The worst part about it is that it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy for awhile.  These guys are going to congregate, have epic parties and gatherings (been seeing more multi-car parties in my neighborhood), and nothing will happen.  Yet.
Do you mean yet like it will happen in a month, or yet like this will be a bad confirmation bias thing for a fall outbreak? 

The other thing I try to argue with them goes something like this, "we all laughed at Iranians for licking every doorknob in their country, so why do you idiots not want to take extra precautions on the reopen?" "Not old; not fat. Don't care." Alrighty.

 
Exponential math works so slow at the beginning.  The real downside of re-opening now is that there are so many active cases.

Example in TN:

Re-opened last Monday.  Let’s start with 10,000 cases and assume everyone infects 2 people in a week. 

That means this Monday there are 10,000 people that don’t know they have it yet and 20k total 

Next Monday 40k and 30k with early stage corona.

the next Monday 80k and the first 10k are finally at the stage where they would need hospitalization.

The USA has 955k active cases and who knows how many more not yet detected cases.  I give it a month until it all explodes again.  Not sure if the economy can handle a second mass shutdown.

 
Do you mean yet like it will happen in a month, or yet like this will be a bad confirmation bias thing for a fall outbreak? 

The other thing I try to argue with them goes something like this, "we all laughed at Iranians for licking every doorknob in their country, so why do you idiots not want to take extra precautions on the reopen?" "Not old; not fat. Don't care." Alrighty.
I mean people are finally getting out, and what’s going to stop them? They believe they are right, they will party, and of course nothing will happen that night.  So they will congregate the next day.  And then the next day.  And life will feel like it’s back to normal.  
 

Then suddenly the virus explodes again and they realize they screwed up.  

 
I mean people are finally getting out, and what’s going to stop them? They believe they are right, they will party, and of course nothing will happen that night.  So they will congregate the next day.  And then the next day.  And life will feel like it’s back to normal.  
 

Then suddenly the virus explodes again and they realize they screwed up.  
Understood. Hope you're wrong, of course. 

 
Understood. Hope you're wrong, of course. 
Me too. But how could it not start exponentially rising again?  We saw this explode once.  It’s not magic, it’s a virus.  If people congregate it will explode again.  Its almost a slam dunk certainty that it will happen.  

 
Me too. But how could it not start exponentially rising again?  We saw this explode once.  It’s not magic, it’s a virus.  If people congregate it will explode again.  Its almost a slam dunk certainty that it will happen.  
The first time it exploded we didn't even know it was here yet. 

 
South Carolina restaurants opened for outside dining. Unfortunately, employees are not coming back. The two interviewed on the news said they are making more from unemployment when you add in the $600. 

 
I mean people are finally getting out, and what’s going to stop them? They believe they are right, they will party, and of course nothing will happen that night.  So they will congregate the next day.  And then the next day.  And life will feel like it’s back to normal.  
 

Then suddenly the virus explodes again and they realize they screwed up.  
I agree with all of this except the part I italicized.  They'll blame everyone else.

 
South Carolina restaurants opened for outside dining. Unfortunately, employees are not coming back. The two interviewed on the news said they are making more from unemployment when you add in the $600. 
If the employer has work for them and calls them back they will lose their unemployment claim if they refuse work 

 
Me too. But how could it not start exponentially rising again?  We saw this explode once.  It’s not magic, it’s a virus.  If people congregate it will explode again.  Its almost a slam dunk certainty that it will happen.  
I would say that I hope we are better prepared than we were a month ago. PPE still seems to be an issue somehow, but we certainly have more ventilators than before. I'm definitely not a flubro, but the one way I lean in their direction is I think this needs to run it's course somehow. I was never in the full lock down camp, even when I saw it coming. We never really did that as a rule anywhere, but I understood why we needed to take those precautions (curve flattening). 

I think we may have waited too long to reopen too, and I blame this for the backlash we're seeing now. It's why I shared the information about boaters already saying "f it" and meeting up at a local spot like it was the 4th of July. I said at the time, "the rubber band is about to snap."

The bottom line is we cannot stay locked down forever, and instead of fighting reopening, I think we should have been doing a better job of saying, "we will reopen if __________." My personal choice for blank would be social distancing and everyone wear face coverings. The problem with masks, and I didn't care enough to remember who to tag, is that when people suggested reopening with mask requirements, people on the left of the argument would say, "masks don't work." Meanwhile, people also on this side of the argument would go out in public and complain about others not wearing masks.

Then you have people on the right acting like all of the numbers are "fake news" because they read a story where one guy overdosed or fell off a ladder and was counted as a CV death. Before places started to reopen, you could get them to begrudgingly agree to wear some sort of face covering if it meant things would reopen, but now? Good ####### luck. "Not old; not fat, bro." I suspect many are lying about the latter. 

 
This will sound harsh because of the nature of typing something in a forum, but I'm not trying to be a jerk here.  That being said, I'm not going to wear one because I don't want to.  I don't want to fight with a mask while trying to eat, I want to set at a bar and drink a beer without worrying about a mask.  I don't want my glasses fogging up all the time, I want my friend who is hard of hearing to be able to read lips to pick up a conversation...
Thanks for your candor. 

Just so I understand, do you believe the threat of infection is overstated? If so, how did you determine your personal risk?

Do you or anyone with whom you interact have conditions which place them at increased risk (elderly, chronic medical problems, smokers, etc.)? 

Aside from avoiding establishments which require masks, how are you altering your behavior in response to the pandemic?

Is there any news that would cause you to rethink your stance on this topic?

 
What is the criteria for a restaurant to re-open up safely?  It there a standard or OSHA guidelines?  Can a server refuse to return to work for fear of safety or lack of social distancing in the kitchen or between tables?

 
Locally we have had 3-4 new cases a day over the last 5 days in our county.  The health department put out a statement saying the hospital is preparing for an outbreak.  Before this spike we had 0 new cases in a week and 1-2 a day before that. 

 
What I was getting at is that locally there might only be weak political will to use the force of law to encourage mask usage. The reason that political will locally won't be stronger (even in a deep-blue town like New Orleans) is that there will be a lot of hand-wringing over how hard it is for some to acquire masks, how people w/o Internet access can't order them online, and so on. It will be another log on the perpetually-burning "haves vs. have-nots" fire around here.

Frankly, if a "mask required" law is ever passed locally it's almost certainly going to contain a provision for businesses and/or the local government to supply masks. I agree with you about using old shirts and other items for make-do face coverings. I'm just giving you the lay of the land locally.
This poor guy was just trying to do his job Link
That’s awful.

No one got shot in Stillwater, Oklahoma ... but weapons were brandished as locals resisted mask wearing. The mayor then rescinded the public face-covering order to  avoid putting retail employees in harm’s way.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1198736?__twitter_impression=true

 
IMO they should’ve just Marshall law’d the entire nation for 45 -60 days.... only allowed to leave n certain days to get food that’s placed in the back of your trunk. Then the people who have it would (hopefully) recover  and we’d be done. 

Instead we have this half assed effort and it’s only dragging this thing out. 
 

 
IMO they should’ve just Marshall law’d the entire nation for 45 -60 days.... only allowed to leave n certain days to get food that’s placed in the back of your trunk. Then the people who have it would (hopefully) recover  and we’d be done. 

Instead we have this half assed effort and it’s only dragging this thing out. 
Well ... that would be a real quarantine, that's for sure. Really hard to get that to fly in the U.S. without resistance ... but that was probably the level of lockdown necessary to shut this thing down.

 
IMHE now project 134k deaths by Aug 4. Essentially double. All with us in quarantine. I don't get it
At no point was freedom of movement at an individual level truly curtailed. We live in a free country, it is what it is. That's a constraint that the (parts of the) U.S. has to work within when planning for pandemic mitigation.

 
IMO they should’ve just Marshall law’d the entire nation for 45 -60 days.... only allowed to leave n certain days to get food that’s placed in the back of your trunk. Then the people who have it would (hopefully) recover  and we’d be done. 

Instead we have this half assed effort and it’s only dragging this thing out. 
 
LOL. So 60 days later when it flares up again (possibly from someone from another country, etc). Do we lock down again another 60 days? It would be endless. Just like the quarantines that now that many want will never end as goal posts keep changing. Flatten the curve and learn to live with this. Protect the elderly and everyone else practice social distancing and good hygiene. But no, Marshall law is not the answer.

 
Hmm? I don't follow the question.
They changed their projection from 70k to 134k. What changed between then and now? Yeah I get some states have started opening up. Was that not in their last projections? These models seem very finicky and seem to ignore what's actually happening. Sort of like when they changed it from 100k to 60k.

 
LOL. So 60 days later when it flares up again (possibly from someone from another country, etc). Do we lock down again another 60 days? It would be endless.
Very strictly, not quite true.

Bear with me through this bad science-fiction-novel thought experiment: If all of Earth's population, right now, could be put in stasis for 60 days ... at the end of that 60 days, SARS-CoV-2 is extinct due to lack of hosts. "Stasis" meaning all humans basically sleeping for two months straight.

Of course, putting humanity into collective stasis is pure fantasy. But as a virus-killing concept, it works perfectly.

 
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They changed their projection from 70k to 134k. What changed between then and now? Yeah I get some states have started opening up. Was that not in their last projections? These models seem very finicky and seem to ignore what's actually happening. Sort of like when they changed it from 100k to 60k.
I’d imagine the fact that the USA is at 69,722 deaths is one reason why they bumped their projections higher than 70k.

 
They changed their projection from 70k to 134k. What changed between then and now? Yeah I get some states have started opening up. Was that not in their last projections? These models seem very finicky and seem to ignore what's actually happening. Sort of like when they changed it from 100k to 60k.
Dunno. I'm not speaking to the models at all. I think the adjustment up is meant to capture loosening "quarantine", relaxed social distancing, more things being open, and so forth.

All I was contesting is your thought about the U.S. being "in quarantine". Collectively, movement has been much reduced among Americans -- just not to the point of an actual capital-Q quarantine.

 
Hmm? I don't follow the question.
They changed their projection from 70k to 134k. What changed between then and now? Yeah I get some states have started opening up. Was that not in their last projections? These models seem very finicky and seem to ignore what's actually happening. Sort of like when they changed it from 100k to 60k.
Let me see if I can unpack this for you:

  1. Models/projections/estimates were made based on people staying at home
  2. People were asked to stay at home
  3. People did not listen
  4. Based on new data models/projections/estimates were restated based on new data
  5. rinse, repeat
 
Are we really getting to a point with the death count where people will say "See, the quarantine didn't work!"

:sadbanana:
When we first started quarantine the projected model was around 120k on the low range. Now after 6 weeks of quarantine they have just increased the projected deaths to where we started. 

Of course quarantine works but only for a really long time. Once we start opening things up we will get the deaths again. We just prolonged the pain. Again i thought flattening of the curve was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. It seems the quarantine worked for that. Stop moving the goal posts. 

 
LOL. So 60 days later when it flares up again (possibly from someone from another country, etc). Do we lock down again another 60 days? It would be endless. Just like the quarantines that now that many want will never end as goal posts keep changing. Flatten the curve and learn to live with this. Protect the elderly and everyone else practice social distancing and good hygiene. But no, Marshall law is not the answer.
LOLing and making statements isn’t a solution. ”Flatten the curve”? OK, how? “Learn to live with this”. What?

My family and I have done our part. We have only left the house a handful of times on the past two months and only to get supplies/food. 
 

 
Dunno. I'm not speaking to the models at all. I think the adjustment up is meant to capture loosening "quarantine", relaxed social distancing, more things being open, and so forth.

All I was contesting is your thought about the U.S. being "in quarantine". Collectively, movement has been much reduced among Americans -- just not to the point of an actual capital-Q quarantine.
Your nitpicking on my terminology. We've been calling it quarantine since the beginning. I realize it's not China quarantine. 

 
Are we really getting to a point with the death count where people will say "See, the quarantine didn't work!"

:sadbanana:
When we first started quarantine the projected model was around 120k on the low range. Now after 6 weeks of quarantine they have just increased the projected deaths to where we started. 

Of course quarantine works but only for a really long time. Once we start opening things up we will get the deaths again. We just prolonged the pain. Again i thought flattening of the curve was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. It seems the quarantine worked for that. Stop moving the goal posts. 
Not correct

The goal posts were 2 million dead without the quarantine.  The new models were based on people following the quarantine.  Now that we are opening up we will be somewhere in the middle.  Hopefully a good number of people will practice social distancing and wear masks.  Every.  Little.  Bit.  Helps.

 

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