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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

rcam said:
There is a lot of evidence for this - easy enough to Google. IMO, don't waste your money on it - only get it done if it is free and then just assume, regardless of the result, that you have never had COVID19. 
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Do you also not believe the test for COVID itself?

 
Don't Noonan said:
rcam said:
There is a lot of evidence for this - easy enough to Google. IMO, don't waste your money on it - only get it done if it is free and then just assume, regardless of the result, that you have never had COVID19. 
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Do you also not believe the test for COVID itself?
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If you arer talking about the swab test, it has proven to be at least 90% accurate.

There are over 100 antibody test. Only a few have applied for FDA approval. But the FDA has allowed them to market themselves

 
waiver wire said:
grocery stores and businesses that are open are limiting the amount of people inside but masks and gloves are NOT mandatory for workers or customers ( all workers are wearing masks and gloves  though while 10-15% of the people are wearing masks and 50% gloves
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Good write up, BTW.  Just wondering why more people are wearing gloves versus masks up there?

 
jobarules said:
Yep CityMD and PM Pediatrics are just two urgent cares that are offering both covid swab test and antibody test at ALL locations to anybody that wants. 

Keep in mind this is GREAT news that people in this thread either don't believe or just love to bash. 
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I can confirm this is true from CitiMD as they emailed me offering it as there is one a few blocks from my house.  Haven't taken them up on it as I am still trying to avoid any contact with people  (especially healthcare).  

Feels to me that NYC has enough testing at this point after long periods of not having nearly enough.  Even during height of crisis they were only testing folks in NYC where they need to put them in ICU care.  I know people in NYC who were admitted to hospital but just not in ICU and never received a test.

There are two reasons I think he is saying it - 1) he is worried about a new spike of cases as we open up NYC so we may not have enough in that situations or 2) DeBlasio is a complete ####### moron.  I am leaning to option 2.  

 
the moops said:
If you arer talking about the swab test, it has proven to be at least 90% accurate.

There are over 100 antibody test. Only a few have applied for FDA approval. But the FDA has allowed them to market themselves
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Not sure what direction you are going in, but 90% accurate is pretty bad. Also, testing accuracy matters more for small numbers than big numbers, and it seems like we are more at small numbers. Looking back at the Stanford testing that determined ~ 2% if people were exposed while they also had a ~ 2% false positive rate means the test was completely meaningless and as far as we know, it was possible no one had it. The same 2% false positive rate does not make a huge difference if you get 50% positive. Obviously a much bigger difference between 0% and 2% than 48% and 50%. 

 
Don't Noonan said:
Do you also not believe the test for COVID itself?
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The test for the virus itself? It is a completely different process based on PCR. If you are willing for the test that waits a few days I would consider that pretty definitive *if* you are experience any symptoms. If you are asymptomatic it depends if you are asymptomatic due to the disease being in the early stages or if you are an asymptomatic carrier. Carriers will likely be caught while early stage infections may or may not (no idea what the numbers would be here). The fast PCR test is less reliable, but if you take it twice with several days inbetween tests, I would consider that a fairly strong indicator if results matched.

Antibody tests are like the wild west right now. There is something like 100+ tests on the market with most, if not all, giving inaccurate results and none (as of a few days ago) being FDA approved (if that really means anything anymore).

Here would be my acceptable situations:

1) Experiencing symptoms - assume fast or slow PCR test resulting in a positive is accurate. A negative and I would wait a day and retest if possible.

2) Not experiencing symptoms but know of exposure - would accept positive slow test. Would get retested if negative (slow test) and twice using fast PCR test regardless of results.

3) Antibody tests, if free, I would take it and mentally file it away while assuming I have never been infected. It *might* be worthwhile to take multiple ones from different labs. However, that is too much work IMO.

 
DA RAIDERS said:
there was one jackass at whole foods, "sticking it to the man", when i went in last week.  so dumb.  just go with the flow for a bit, regardless of your opinion.
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Went to Costco yesterday. One guy in the entire place took off his mask. I thought about asking if he was always an ###### or just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. However, due to the fact I hadn't been shopping in 5 weeks, I didn't want to risk some sort of scene/altercation where I don't get to complete my shopping trip.

Edit:

Odd that jackass makes it through the filters but ###hat does not. 

 
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rcam said:
Yeah, I don't get the point of any of these antibody tests right now since you can't trust the results.
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Because we have to know NOW!!!!

Governors are literally being forced to play God
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Not associating the original poster because this isn't directed at them but that's a bit of hyperbole IMO. How come they don't get called to the carpet for people smoking & banning that? How come we don't call them out during a particularly bad flu season for not doing more? It's just this whole narrative, about trying to save everyone by sacrificing everything to do it. We can't stop every death, yes we can slow it down and yes we can impact the ultimate number but placing the mantle of God on people because they are making decisions that impact a state, I just don't think that's fair to lay at their feet. The Governor of OH was lauded as a revolutionary for shutting down the state early on. Today, folks are calling for him to be removed from office and brought up on charges for extending the shut down by a week or two. You're damned if you do and damned if you don't. I'm not being heartless or cold here, people were always going to die from this. I don't think it's fair to say the Governor of XX state is responsible for for John Smith's death.

Sorry, should probably just give this subject a break for a while.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Nipsey said:
Woman at Trader Joe's refusing to wear a mask. Makes my blood boil. People like this are part of the reason this thing is going to drag on and on and on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmHiu-r8zgU
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Not going to watch her narcissistic rant for 22 minutes. Beyond seeking attention, what’s the supposed rationale she’s trying to force on everyone?
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Couldn’t get in the door of any Trader Joe’s here. Would not be allowed to remove her mask. Guess it varies by region.

Antibody testing in NYC is widely available and free. NYC DOHMH has a list of where the tests are located daily. Some of the tests do yield false positives. I’ll probably get retested at some point, for now I’m behaving, on the advice of my primary care, as if I have the virus & am negative for antibodies (the opposite of my actual test results.)

 
TheWinz said:
I'll say something that may sound heartless, but I bet many have contemplated...

There are such things as "acceptable losses".  The question is, what is that number?  I don't claim to know, and there is no real answer.  Governors are literally being forced to play God by choosing when to open their states back up.  I personally wouldn't want to have to make that decision, but the fact is, they have to.  I think we can all agree that loosening restrictions will amount to more lives being lost (to COVID).  For every action, there is a reaction.
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I've been having some thoughts about that trade-off in the context of driving restrictions.  What's the acceptable speed limit on highways and streets?  How tight should DWI standards and punishments be?  We know that harsher standards and more inconvenience for the average person can help to save lives.  What's the right answer?  In Chicago, we're seeming some of those dynamics - related to injuries rather than deaths - with the new phenomenon of motorized scooters. Where do we draw the lines?  

 
tri-man 47 said:
TheWinz said:
I'll say something that may sound heartless, but I bet many have contemplated...

There are such things as "acceptable losses".  The question is, what is that number?  I don't claim to know, and there is no real answer.  Governors are literally being forced to play God by choosing when to open their states back up.  I personally wouldn't want to have to make that decision, but the fact is, they have to.  I think we can all agree that loosening restrictions will amount to more lives being lost (to COVID).  For every action, there is a reaction.
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I've been having some thoughts about that trade-off in the context of driving restrictions.  What's the acceptable speed limit on highways and streets?  How tight should DWI standards and punishments be?  We know that harsher standards and more inconvenience for the average person can help to save lives.  What's the right answer?  In Chicago, we're seeming some of those dynamics - related to injuries rather than deaths - with the new phenomenon of motorized scooters. Where do we draw the lines?  
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I’m not going to pretend to know the answer. I will say I am grateful that in New York the consistent messaging has been give the people facts. Base decisions on data. Don’t react due to emotions or politics.

It doesn’t have to a choice of either the economy or public health. That’s a false dichotomy. We can do both. It’s harder than just saying “let’s roll” and hope for the best. I’m very thankful that we doing things in a sensible manner. Downstate is different from upstate, which is different from rural western New York. Each region has a different timeline. Same with business & industries; construction & manufacturing can go first, and some are reopening next week. Others it will take longer.

But we don’t want to go too fast & undo the good we’ve accomplished. NYS numbers are going down across the board, and at the same time they’re going up other places, people are behaving as if this is behind us. It’s somewhat understandable, we all want our lives back, everyone who cannot WFH wants to get back to work and start drawing a paycheck again. But we need to be smart, and in this case smart means following the data.

 
Don't Noonan said:
What evidence is there that the antibody tests are unreliable?
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Unreliable isn't the word I'd use.  It's error rate.  Some have fairly high error rates (i.e. ONLY 85% specificity) while others are better (i.e. 95% specificity).  The problem is that with such low incidence (i.e. % infected) currently, the number of false positives will be enormous and thus make the reliability of any INDIVIDUAL positive test very, very suspect.  I'd recommend you look up Bayes rule and plug in your own numbers regarding specificity and infection incidence and see what the result is.  My guess is that you'll find that taking the anti-body test is a waste at ANY cost.  But YMMV.  Do the math, trust me - Bayes rule is no joke and after compound interest, and exponential growth is among THE most useful mathematical concepts to understand.

 
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BobbyLayne said:
I’m not going to pretend to know the answer. I will say I am grateful that in New York the consistent messaging has been give the people facts. Base decisions on data. Don’t react due to emotions or politics.

It doesn’t have to a choice of either the economy or public health. That’s a false dichotomy. We can do both. It’s harder than just saying “let’s roll” and hope for the best. I’m very thankful that we doing things in a sensible manner. Downstate is different from upstate, which is different from rural western New York. Each region has a different timeline. Same with business & industries; construction & manufacturing can go first, and some are reopening next week. Others it will take longer.

But we don’t want to go too fast & undo the good we’ve accomplished. NYS numbers are going down across the board, and at the same time they’re going up other places, people are behaving as if this is behind us. It’s somewhat understandable, we all want our lives back, everyone who cannot WFH wants to get back to work and start drawing a paycheck again. But we need to be smart, and in this case smart means following the data.
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Unfortunately the bolded/underlined has been my problem for several weeks.  We argued and I think everyone is now agreeing that the data is not sound...it is reported differently in each state, sometimes in different areas of the state, false positives, numbers of people taking the tests, (I won't even bring up the international testing/reporting differences) etc.  And yet we then turn around and argue a certain decision is made correctly because it is based on science and data. 

I continue to caution everyone on any position they take, especially if it is the "prevailing conventional wisdom" that it is not based on fact but very fluid sets of data that could be extremely misleading. 

What's my point... stop with the demeaning and shaming of people that do not have the same view on these issues since we do not have the facts about this disease: what is it's most effective way of spreading, how many really have had it, when did it start in this country, if no vaccine in near future is it better to go for herd immunity,  is herd immunity even possible, etc.   Our data and understanding of this disease will take at least a year to answer some of the most critical questions we have about the best way to open up.  So no one has the "right" answer currently, please don't attack others like you do.

 
Ksquared said:
Unfortunately the bolded/underlined has been my problem for several weeks.  We argued and I think everyone is now agreeing that the data is not sound...it is reported differently in each state, sometimes in different areas of the state, false positives, numbers of people taking the tests, (I won't even bring up the international testing/reporting differences) etc.  And yet we then turn around and argue a certain decision is made correctly because it is based on science and data. 

I continue to caution everyone on any position they take, especially if it is the "prevailing conventional wisdom" that it is not based on fact but very fluid sets of data that could be extremely misleading. 

What's my point... stop with the demeaning and shaming of people that do not have the same view on these issues since we do not have the facts about this disease: what is it's most effective way of spreading, how many really have had it, when did it start in this country, if no vaccine in near future is it better to go for herd immunity,  is herd immunity even possible, etc.   Our data and understanding of this disease will take at least a year to answer some of the most critical questions we have about the best way to open up.  So no one has the "right" answer currently, please don't attack others like you do.
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I largely agree with this, and don't want to give the impression otherwise, but it is a bit of a pet peeve of mine when people say "no one knows the right answer" in defense of "everyone's opinion is valid" or something similar.  You don't need to know the right answer to a question to be able to rule out many/most of the wrong answers.   So while it's true that the way we go forward is still an inexact science, there are a lot of bad answers floating around that people are well within their rights to dismiss.  

 
TheWinz said:
Good write up, BTW.  Just wondering why more people are wearing gloves versus masks up there?
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really don't know the answer 
im guessing that because  all the federal parties ( 1 right {cons} , The government { Liberals  central left but moving more left } ,  NDP{ really left} and Bloq Quebecois { separatist party from Quebec is left leaning } ) and all the provincial governments are pretty much are on all the same page . There isn't the entrenched political infighting like the US so the majority of the people up here believe the science and the lockdown .
There are some the think its fake and overblown not a big percentage and luckily no main political figure is pushing that agenda
People do want the economy to restart and from the people I talk to , they want it to be down right and not force it so we get the 2nd wave .
Our economy has taken a major hit like evert other country and there has been a lot of unemployment but over all every level of government has stepped up and implemented many policies to help the people affected .
 

 
waiver wire said:
really don't know the answer 
im guessing that because  all the federal parties ( 1 right {cons} , The government { Liberals  central left but moving more left } ,  NDP{ really left} and Bloq Quebecois { separatist party from Quebec is left leaning } ) and all the provincial governments are pretty much are on all the same page . There isn't the entrenched political infighting like the US so the majority of the people up here believe the science and the lockdown .
There are some the think its fake and overblown not a big percentage and luckily no main political figure is pushing that agenda
People do want the economy to restart and from the people I talk to , they want it to be down right and not force it so we get the 2nd wave .
Our economy has taken a major hit like evert other country and there has been a lot of unemployment but over all every level of government has stepped up and implemented many policies to help the people affected .
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My question wasn't whether or not Canada is doing a good job.  It was if gloves are better for limiting the spread versus masks.  Overwhelming majority in the US are saying masks are much much more useful.  Just wondering Canada's take on this?

 
Daily case count creeps even closer to 100K/day at Covid worldometers - 97,000 for the day, and another 5,500 deaths.  Russia and Brazil (10,000 new cases each) again stand out.  Even as cases flatten in Europe, the virus picks up steam in many other countries.  We did cross the worldwide threshold of 4M reported cases today.  Next sad milestone within the next week will be 300,000 worldwide deaths.  

 
Dauphin County PA tells Governor Wolf they're moving to next stage of opening up next week whether he approves or not. Harrisburg, the state capitol,  is in Dauphin County. Neighboring Lebanon county follows suit.

@DauphinCounty: A message from Dauphin County Board Chairman Jeff Haste to residents and business owners: https://bit.ly/2WzZrQO

@jeremymlong: Lebanon County plans to defy governor's order and allow businesses to reopen https://www.readingeagle.com/coronavirus/lebanon-county-plans-to-defy-governors-order-and-allow-businesses-to-reopen/article_b28ab1f4-9185-11ea-a8b5-8fa5ad145a6b.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share via @ReadingEagle

 
JaxBill said:
Dauphin County PA tells Governor Wolf they're moving to next stage of opening up next week whether he approves or not. Harrisburg, the state capitol,  is in Dauphin County. Neighboring Lebanon county follows suit.

@DauphinCounty: A message from Dauphin County Board Chairman Jeff Haste to residents and business owners: https://bit.ly/2WzZrQO

@jeremymlong: Lebanon County plans to defy governor's order and allow businesses to reopen https://www.readingeagle.com/coronavirus/lebanon-county-plans-to-defy-governors-order-and-allow-businesses-to-reopen/article_b28ab1f4-9185-11ea-a8b5-8fa5ad145a6b.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share via @ReadingEagle
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Interesting. 

I had to go into work today for a bit in Lehigh County (I've been working from home as much as possible, but I do have to be on site sometimes), and I was somewhat taken aback by just how fired up a lot of my coworkers were over Wolf extending stay at home until June 4th.  Not sure how representative they are, but things definitely seemed to have shifted from a grumbling acceptance to anger.  I also thought there was significantly more traffic on the roads than I've seen in weeks.  I'm not sure if that's because Mother's Day is coming up or a general shift in people's behavior.

 
Not really vouching for accuracy of said publications and I don't know of any slant one way or the other.

Looks like there may be some antibody tests that are worth looking at:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/fda-publishes-first-validation-results-12-covid-19-antibody-tests

Edit:

However, the last line of this is not good for the reopen now crowd (using the Abbott test mentioned in both articles):

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/08/abbotts-coronavirus-antibody-test-proves-highly-ac.aspx

The Crush the Curve Idaho initiative -- which only tests people who think they may have had COVID-19 and recovered -- has tested over 10,000 individuals in the Boise area, with 0.71% of them returning positive results.
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Numbers like that mean there likely isn't a huge population of hidden/recovered asymptomatic carriers. 

 
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Ignoratio Elenchi said:
I largely agree with this, and don't want to give the impression otherwise, but it is a bit of a pet peeve of mine when people say "no one knows the right answer" in defense of "everyone's opinion is valid" or something similar.  You don't need to know the right answer to a question to be able to rule out many/most of the wrong answers.   So while it's true that the way we go forward is still an inexact science, there are a lot of bad answers floating around that people are well within their rights to dismiss.  
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And I come back with what I said.  It is true there are base levels of knowledge we can trust to be true, but in this situation they are few and far between.  90% of what is out there on all side has not been peer reviewed and had the time to determine if it is actually true or educated conventional wisdom. Right now we cannot come close to firmly stating how many have actually died from CV 19.  In some places they will not identify it as a death from CV 19 unless they died in the hospital with it.  Others are not even testing and when they die, they document it as a CV 19 death.  Now you have hospitals (mostly rural) that are going to go under and several have been identified to have label every elderly death in their facility as CV 19 so they can get the $119,000 in federal funds. There have been a lot of "wrong" answer proven correct in this thread alone that went against the conventional wisdom/scientist statements at that time...go back and look at the first month. 

But this is more than dismissing a bad idea, it is the way it is done.  Generally it is stated to dismiss the person in many cases as if they are of lesser intelligence, or to dangerous to allow, and many have simply left this thread.  Again, question ideas but all of them should still be under scrutiny, not just the ones that don't fit your position at the moment.  You do not know for sure you are correct on any of it. 

 
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parasaurolophus said:
Anybody still looking for masks?

KN95 masks available

The owner of this company lives in my neighborhood. That's how I found out about these coming in about a month ago. I actually never thought they would arrive and every week when they would extend the estimated arrival date I just figured they were confiscated by FEMA or who knows, but spoke to him Friday and he was finally pretty confident, said he had tracking. The only reason I think they weren't intercepted is because he paid a fortune to have them air freighted. So I checked today and saw they updated status to "shipping now" which is what he told me they would do when they arrived. 

I dont think this is any kind of a scam. I ordered ten myself. I will post a review once I receive them in a couple days, but I suspect they will be sold by then. We aren't friends so I cant vouch for him on that level, but I know his business has been around for a while and he has some big name clients in town(big venue lighting) and I know he is real involved with my kid's school.  

The only thing I can guarantee is that if anybody were to get screwed over ordering I would absolutely bang on this guy's front door and give him hell.  
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Realized I didnt update this. Received my masks. They look identical to what is in that little clip on that site, except there is a weird clear plastic strip that makes it look perforated that runs across the middle. It isnt permeable but caught me off guard. 

The metal nose piece is definitely not as thick as an N95 mask, but they seem to me to be what is advertised. 

I havent hunted around for pricing so for all i know this is a high price. I bought because it was a local guy that had a good reputation.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Realized I didnt update this. Received my masks. They look identical to what is in that little clip on that site, except there is a weird clear plastic strip that makes it look perforated that runs across the middle. It isnt permeable but caught me off guard. 

The metal nose piece is definitely not as thick as an N95 mask, but they seem to me to be what is advertised. 

I havent hunted around for pricing so for all i know this is a high price. I bought because it was a local guy that had a good reputation.
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I actually bought some, too, based on your thoughts that he would be trustworthy (and to support a smaller business).  I don't really need them at the moment but thought it wouldn't hurt to have a backup supply.  Mine are out for delivery today, I think.  Thanks for the info!

 
Seoul city orders clubs, bars to close following group infection in Itaewon
 

By Yonhap

Published : May 9, 2020 - 10:41 
Updated : May 9, 2020 - 18:08

The Seoul city government on Saturday effectively suspended business at clubs and bars in the city after recent infections in the city's popular multicultural neighborhood of Itaewon put health authorities on alert over a possibly bigger outbreak.

Under an administrative order that has gone into effect immediately, all clubs, bars, "room salons" and other nightlife establishments across the capital will be banned from hosting crowds of people, virtually suspending businesses at such venues.

"Such facilities have to suspend business immediately and will face strict punishment if they breach (the order)," Mayor Park Won-soon said in a press briefing, adding the order will remain in effect under further notice.

"Carelessness can lead to an explosion in infections -- we clearly realized this through the group infections seen in the Itaewon club case," Park said, urging businesses and the public to closely abide by quarantine measures.

The precautionary measure comes after dozens of infections were reported in relation to a 29-year-old who tested positive after spending time at five clubs and bars in Itaewon last weekend.

South Korea reported 18 new cases Saturday, with 17 of those linked to the clubber.

But health authorities forecast the number to further rise considering that at least 1,500 people signed in entry logs at the affected facilities.

Officials have urged people who visited the Itaewon clubs and bars, including King Club, Trunk Club and Club Queen, between April 29 and Wednesday to receive screening tests and refrain from going outside to prevent additional transmissions.

Park, meanwhile, pointed out that the entry logs were mostly inaccurate. City officials have failed to get into touch with more than 1,300 people on the documents, he said.

The mayor asked visitors in the cited period to voluntarily go through screening, adding that the city will otherwise consult with police for additional measures. 

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it has confirmed 27 cases traced to the Itaewon clubber, including the patient's colleagues, as well as families and acquaintances of other patients.

The figure, tallied at 9 a.m., showed 13 were affected in Seoul, followed by 12 in the surrounding Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, one in North Chungcheong Province and another in the southern port city of Busan.

Park, however, said 40 cases have been confirmed nationally as of noon, including 27 in Seoul, 12 in Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, and one in Busan, 453 kilometers southeast of the capital.

The recent infections are believed to have mostly broken out when the country was still under a social distancing scheme.

South Korea started shifting to an everyday life quarantine Wednesday, relaxing the social distancing measures after the country's new infections fell to single-digit figures.
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worrierking said:
I posted a different study earlier, but this one is more evidence that Vitamin D deficiency is correlated with higher death rates.  Correlation/causation caveats apply.

https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2020/05/vitamin-d-appears-to-play-role-in-covid-19-mortality-rates/
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Piggybacking off this. Anyone know what group of people has the highest rates of Vitamin D deficiency?

A Twitter thread on Covid-19 and Nursing Homes

Key takeways, a vast percentage of the Covid-19 deaths from the past two weeks are from nursing homes. Looks like the hardest hit states are reporting 50%+ of the deaths as coming from nursing homes and the percentage is rapidly rising. Some states reported deaths in the past week represent as much as 80% of their most recent Covid-19 deaths. The high amount of layoffs at nursing homes due to shutdowns contributed to the spike in nursing home deaths.

Current nursing home death percentages (and rising):

Pennsylvania 67% Massachusetts 60% Maryland 60% North Carolina 60% Virginia 57% New Jersey 50%
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New York and Michigan are not disclosing the percentage of their deaths that are from nursing homes but you can safely assume it's over 50%

In the end, well over half of the US deaths from Covid-19 appear likely to come from a population of people that post the following statistic in non-pandemic times...

Some important perspective. Not sure if this has changed but a study of nursing home deaths from 1992 to 2006 found: 65% died within 1 year of nursing home admission 53% died within 6 months of nursing home admission
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So as sad as this is, this is a population of people of which 2/3rds die in normal times within the first year of their stay in a nursing home. Instead of shutting everything down, it appears as though we would have been much better served directing a crap ton of resources to nursing homes if we really wanted to save the most lives. Rather the shutdown led to these care facilities laying off 113,100 workers. That turned out to be massively counterproductive.

So anyone suggesting that a 2nd round of shutdowns will be necessary, you might want to think long and hard about what would actually be effective if we have to deal with another wave. And remember, the vast majority of the deaths being added to the US total in the past 2 weeks is coming from nursing homes. Maybe that's where we should have been focused the whole time.

 
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Watching the show supernatural. I am on season 5 episode 4. It is an episode about a pandemic that takes place in 2014 and somebody from 2009 has traveled into the future. At the 27:29 mark...

You really from 2009? 

Yes. Afraid so. 

Want some free advice, when you get back there you hoard toilet paper. Hoard it like its made of gold. Because it is. 

 
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