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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)

I found this argument compelling, but even though I'm unfamiliar with this blog I'm pretty confident he's very slanted from the right (duh). 

In the debate about whether deaths have been over counted or under counted, I've firmly believed in the latter. This read is the first thing I've seen which makes me doubt that.

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-bombshell-report-dr-birx-believes-cdc-inflating-death-numbers-much-25/?utm_content=bufferd8418&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=tw-cr

 
shader said:
Can you please not be so quick to criticize?  I have far too many posts in this thread to deal with this kind of garbage.  

Obviously, I know about vaccines and herd immunity.  You know that I know this.

Use your brain a bit.  

A vaccine is a 2021 solution.  There is a ton of economic devastation and a lot of lost lives before we get a vaccine.  Not sure how a vaccine applies to countries plans to re-open over the next month.  You know this, I know this, but you want to criticize.

Herd immunity is the actual point of my post.  It's inevitable.  You know this, I know this, but you just want to criticize.  You're such a joy.
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You've contributed a lot to this thread but that doesn't shield you from criticism when I, or many others, consider some of your comments to be sensationalism or doom and gloom. And this reply is yet another example of how well you take that criticism.  

 
tri-man 47 said:
The common weekend dip at Covid worldometers?  80,000 new cases and 3,500 deaths.  Russia's still Russia.  U.S. only reporting 20,000 new cases and 750 deaths.  I don't recall U.S. numbers dipping as much on the weekend, so those could be encouraging signs.
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There is something wrong with NY states numbers on that website.  On Sunday Coumo  reported 226 deaths and today he reported 161.  Worldometers has NY state at 41 yesterday and 62 today so something is clearly off.  

 
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jamny said:
You've contributed a lot to this thread but that doesn't shield you from criticism when I, or many others, consider some of your comments to be sensationalism or doom and gloom. And this reply is yet another example of how well you take that criticism.  
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None of my comments are sensational, or doom and gloom.  I'll edit my statement to be more accurate, since you struggle with reading between the lines.

Also, I don't really care about your criticism.  HTH

 
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Redwes25 said:
There is something wrong with NY states numbers on that website.  On Sunday Coumo  reported 226 deaths and today he reported 161.  Worldometers has NY state at 41 yesterday and 62 today so something is clearly off.  
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Yeah, I was trying to figure out how they came to that 41 number

 
Battersbox said:
I found this argument compelling, but even though I'm unfamiliar with this blog I'm pretty confident he's very slanted from the right (duh). 

In the debate about whether deaths have been over counted or under counted, I've firmly believed in the latter. This read is the first thing I've seen which makes me doubt that.

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-bombshell-report-dr-birx-believes-cdc-inflating-death-numbers-much-25/?utm_content=bufferd8418&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=tw-cr
Click to expand...
Anytime someone uses the term "BOMBSHELL REPORT" it immediately turns me off. 

 
Battersbox said:
I found this argument compelling, but even though I'm unfamiliar with this blog I'm pretty confident he's very slanted from the right (duh). 

In the debate about whether deaths have been over counted or under counted, I've firmly believed in the latter. This read is the first thing I've seen which makes me doubt that.

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-bombshell-report-dr-birx-believes-cdc-inflating-death-numbers-much-25/?utm_content=bufferd8418&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=tw-cr
Click to expand...
A statistical analysis (rather than an anecdotal one such as your link includes), suggests that Covid is actually slightly LESS deadly to the aged than the seasonal flu.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities

 
Don Hutson said:
Darth's face mask filters 99.9% of airborne particles.  He should be fine.
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Work everyday.  Don't wear a mask, I keep people 6 feet away and wash my hands a lot.  There is zero reason we can't do the same thing at restaurants and barbers, the same things we've been doing at the 60%+ of businesses that were not forced to close.

 
tonydead said:
Work everyday.  Don't wear a mask, I keep people 6 feet away and wash my hands a lot.  There is zero reason we can't do the same thing at restaurants and barbers, the same things we've been doing at the 60%+ of businesses that were not forced to close.
Click to expand...
Barbers would need 6' arms.

 
tonydead said:
Or masks and googles.  Gloves if they want.  Lots of sanitation.   This isn't rocket science.
Click to expand...
Google would be good so that they would know that sanitation and gloves don't help much because Coronavirus is spread through the air, not surfaces.

 
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Doug B said:
As does matuski, and he has posted in this thread many times about how most of his colleagues have little or no concern with COVID-19. Second-hand impression is that the medical professionals he works with may well have continued to have home visitors, allow their kids to hang with friends, etc. throughout all of this.

Now, matuski is in a "cold spot" somewhere in West (?) Texas. If these were NYC or New Jersey doctors/nurses being cavalier about COVID-19, I'd be a lot more surprised.
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It really depends what kind of HCW. Aside from that one ER guy, nobody who has actually taken care of Covid patients is downplaying the pandemic. Regardless, people from all walks of life can behave selfishly and irresponsibly.

 
Don Hutson said:
That article doesn't even have a date.  And just because they can test for Coronavirus on a surface doesn't mean that it is capable of causing an infection.
Click to expand...
Maybe you haven't been out for a while.  Every single business I've seen sanitizes every single shopping cart between each use.  Every single work station multiple times a day.  Amazon has sanitation atomizers that cleans all the equipment and work stations.  I want them to keep doing that.  I want the 30% of the businesses forced to close to open and keep doing what we know works.  You can stay home if you want.

 
Morton Muffley said:
A statistical analysis (rather than an anecdotal one such as your link includes), suggests that Covid is actually slightly LESS deadly to the aged than the seasonal flu.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities
Click to expand...
Does that suggest then that the large proportions of deaths over the past several weeks which are being attributed to Covid shouldn't be? Because certainly the link I posted is arguing that. Is this opinion piece from Bloomberg suggesting the same? (I read it very quickly, I'm working).

 
tonydead said:
And.  You can find the date at the bottom:  WebMD Medical Reference Reviewed by Hansa D. Bhargava, MD on May 11, 2020
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And tomorrow it will automatically say May 12, and the day after it will say May 13.  It was probably written in March.  It's been common knowledge for over a month that almost all transmissions are from air.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html#How-COVID-19-Spreads

Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread from person to person through respiratory droplets. Currently, there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with food. Before preparing or eating food it is important to always wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds for general food safety. Throughout the day use a tissue to cover your coughing or sneezing, and wash your hands after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing, or going to the bathroom.

It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object, like a packaging container, that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from food products or packaging.
Click to expand...

 
Don Hutson said:
Google would be good so that they would know that sanitation and gloves don't help much because Coronavirus is spread through the air, not surfaces.
Click to expand...
I mean ... yes and no.

The CDC guidance has muddied things up ... but is it known for certain that breathing from afar (> a few feet away) can infect people with coronavirus? And is it known for certain that publicly-touched objects don't really spread coronavirus at all, short of an infected person hocking a visible loogie on elevator buttons or something.

What do we know with iron-clad certainty about how COVID-19 spreads?

- Coughs/sneezes within several feet -- everyone seems to agree this spreads the virus.
- Breathing on someone from basically point blank -- seems likely that this spreads the virus, but is this locked down as a known vector?
- Breathing on/near someone from within several feet (e.g. sharing an elevator) -- some say that this spreads the virus, but is this really locked down?
- Breathing the same HVAC air as an infected person? Different floors of the same building, no close contact, etc? What do we know for sure on this?
- Publicly-touched objects (aka fomites)? What's known here? Was an assumed major vector for a while, then the CDC turns around in early April and downplays fomites with equivocal language (" ... not documented ...", see link in this post). What's the deal?

 
Don Hutson said:
That article doesn't even have a date.  And just because they can test for Coronavirus on a surface doesn't mean that it is capable of causing an infection.
Click to expand...
This is a good point. Get tired of hearing about the "Lives X days on surfaces!1!!!" stuff. Once the "Lasts 17 days on the cruise ship!" stuff came out, that was it for the "Facebook is gospel" crowd.

 
shader said:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/germany-surge-sounds-coronavirus-alarm-as-world-takes-steps-to-reopen-idUSKBN22N1QT?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

This is the problem the world has to figure out.  It's the problem that hasn't been figured out.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS (until it hits herd immunity or we reach a vaccine). It's not going to happen.

This is not rocket science.  When states re-open, the virus will start spreading again.  There's a 100% certainty of that happening. 
Click to expand...


jamny said:
Stop with the sensationalism already.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Germany's numbers aren't showing a second wave yet. At least wait for evidence of it instead of "fears of" Yes, numbers will go up, hopefully not too far too fast and can be kept at a manageable level so we can start getting the economy going again until a vaccine is developed.
Click to expand...
You know you can both be right and occupy the same space at the same time, right?

The virus isn't going anywhere, correct. Is the virus as bad as we once thought? Yet to be determined but seems to be trending toward yes and before the "because the lock down worked" crowd comes in, yes it did. We learned a lot and can now safely open up certain areas of commerce and be pretty confident that with proper social distancing and PPE, we won't spark another surge.

What particular areas are ok to open up is debatable but some common sense would say if grocery stores, Walmart, Lowes & Home Depot remained open throughout utilizing the above criteria, we should be able to roll that out to a smaller scale business as well or better and still have the same or better level of success we've enjoyed with all the "essential" businesses that remained open throughout.

 
tonydead said:
Maybe you haven't been out for a while.  Every single business I've seen sanitizes every single shopping cart between each use.  Every single work station multiple times a day.  Amazon has sanitation atomizers that cleans all the equipment and work stations.  I want them to keep doing that.  I want the 30% of the businesses forced to close to open and keep doing what we know works.  You can stay home if you want.
Click to expand...
I agree with your ultimate goal. Really need to get everyone singing from the same sheet of music, though.

The parts in red seem really spotty around here -- some businesses do it, most don't

 
jamny said:
shader said:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/germany-surge-sounds-coronavirus-alarm-as-world-takes-steps-to-reopen-idUSKBN22N1QT?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

This is the problem the world has to figure out.  It's the problem that hasn't been figured out.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS. It's not going to happen.

This is not rocket science.  When states re-open, the virus will start spreading again.  There's a 100% certainty of that happening. 
Click to expand...
Stop with the sensationalism already.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Germany's numbers aren't showing a second wave yet. At least wait for evidence of it instead of "fears of" Yes, numbers will go up, hopefully not too far too fast and can be kept at a manageable level so we can start getting the economy going again until a vaccine is developed.
Click to expand...
I get your point. I sympathize with it. I mostly agree with it.

But I would also suggest that you and shader are two sides of the same coin. You're both dealing with a traumatic situation by projecting your feelings into imaginary futures. If you believe that your type of  projection is better, that's fine. But it's still projection. I think there's room for multiple POVs here.

 
Doug B said:
tonydead said:
Maybe you haven't been out for a while.  Every single business I've seen sanitizes every single shopping cart between each use.  Every single work station multiple times a day.  Amazon has sanitation atomizers that cleans all the equipment and work stations.  I want them to keep doing that.  I want the 30% of the businesses forced to close to open and keep doing what we know works.  You can stay home if you want.
Click to expand...
I agree with your ultimate goal. Really need to get everyone singing from the same sheet of music, though.

The parts in red seem really spotty around here -- some businesses do it, most don't
Click to expand...
Anecdotally, I've been to Wal Mart twice in the past week, and there was no cart sanitation at all. The first time, they had a half-arsed "self sanitizing station" set up near the carts (translation: an unmarked bottle of mystery liquid and a roll of paper towels thrown on the floor). The second time, I brought my own sanitizer and wiped down my cart myself.

 
[scooter] said:
I get your point. I sympathize with it. I mostly agree with it.

But I would also suggest that you and shader are two sides of the same coin. You're both dealing with a traumatic situation by projecting your feelings into imaginary futures. If you believe that your type of  projection is better, that's fine. But it's still projection. I think there's room for multiple POVs here.
Click to expand...
My point was not to make projections of the future with any confidence. No one knows what is to come so it's better to just stick with current numbers and move forward, with an eye on the data. I have no idea what it will be like in a week, a month or a year from now.

 
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tonydead said:
3 weeks and WA will open up restaurants to 50% capacity.  Zero reason we can't be doing that right now, but, I will take it.
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This is supposedly only if the metrics that they're using for each phase are getting met.   At this point, we're not even close on testing, but there's no way to tell how much that weighs in to whether they will go to phase 2 if the rest of the factors are looking positive.  Was nice to go golfing last week though.   

 
Doug B said:
I agree with your ultimate goal. Really need to get everyone singing from the same sheet of music, though.

The parts in red seem really spotty around here -- some businesses do it, most don't
Click to expand...
And maybe it's not necessary everywhere, I don't know.  King County WA with pretty dense population, it's doable, we are doing it.  We wait in line (standing 6 feet a part, limited number of people in at a time) to get into Home Depot and we get a sanitized cart handed to us.  I don't wear a mask, 50-60% of the people do.  I don't let anyone get close to me, I don't touch my face and I wash my hands as soon as I get back to the car.

Our numbers are dropping and this logic can apply regardless of business type.  Restaurants seat every other table, only people who live together sit together.  We do it every day for Cigar Shops and Donut Shop while the Nail Salon and Dry Cleaners are closed.  It's not fair.

 
Warrior said:
This is where your thought process is wrong IMO. I most certainly don't think most agree with this. If you have terminal cancer or a heart attack and also happen to catch Covid, that's tallied as a Covid death. If you display "shortness of breath" before dying, you're listed as a Covid death. And many deaths are Flu related (similar symptoms). The Flu didn't magically disappear during the pandemic. They're all chalked up to Covid. The #s you provided are most likely grossly OVERstated, not understated. 
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I'm one of the people that signs death certificates and you are just plain wrong about almost every word here 

 
-fish- said:
This is supposedly only if the metrics that they're using for each phase are getting met.   At this point, we're not even close on testing, but there's no way to tell how much that weighs in to whether they will go to phase 2 if the rest of the factors are looking positive.  Was nice to go golfing last week though.   
Click to expand...
Thanks for reminding me!   Didn't log in to get a tee time early enough last week.  Just booked for Friday.   :thumbup:

And I don't mind 2somes, just like I don't mind not having all the traffic on the roads.  I could get used to some of this social distancing stuff.

 
Don Hutson said:
And tomorrow it will automatically say May 12, and the day after it will say May 13.  It was probably written in March.  It's been common knowledge for over a month that almost all transmissions are from air.
Click to expand...
Great, direct sunlight kills it to, all the more reason to open up.  I'm going to keep up with the hygiene though, can't hurt and companies are spending big money to do it.  Amazon might have UV robots that go through the grocery stores killing everything on every surface pretty soon.

 
Doug B said:
As does matuski, and he has posted in this thread many times about how most of his colleagues have little or no concern with COVID-19. Second-hand impression is that the medical professionals he works with may well have continued to have home visitors, allow their kids to hang with friends, etc. throughout all of this.

Now, matuski is in a "cold spot" somewhere in West (?) Texas. If these were NYC or New Jersey doctors/nurses being cavalier about COVID-19, I'd be a lot more surprised.
Click to expand...
NE Ohio

 
US deaths today (via Worldometer) looking very promising.  Was cautiously optimistic yesterday, but now with a second day of low numbers I'd say that the timing of the SiP lift seems nearly perfect.  Fully expect we'll see stead growth as more things open up but also nothing like the initial curve as many (not all) will be much more diligent.  Wish I had more faith in our testing and contact tracing, but living here in MA I feel good about driving the numbers down low enough to make contact tracing a viable solution.  Expect that we'll learn alot over the next 4-6 weeks about which measures work best given the variety of actions across countries and states.    

 
Switzerland initiated "Phase Two" of lifting their lockdown today.

No longer on lockdown:

- Grade schools
- Restaurants
- Pubs
- Gyms
- Museums
- Public Transportation

 
Statorama said:
Switzerland initiated "Phase Two" of lifting their lockdown today.

No longer on lockdown:

- Grade schools
- Restaurants
- Pubs
- Gyms
- Museums
- Public Transportation
Click to expand...
So glad I got to see Switzerland last year. I don't expect to do any international travel for quite a while. I'll stick with the US for now.

 
Morton Muffley said:
US deaths today (via Worldometer) looking very promising.  Was cautiously optimistic yesterday, but now with a second day of low numbers I'd say that the timing of the SiP lift seems nearly perfect.  Fully expect we'll see stead growth as more things open up but also nothing like the initial curve as many (not all) will be much more diligent.  Wish I had more faith in our testing and contact tracing, but living here in MA I feel good about driving the numbers down low enough to make contact tracing a viable solution.  Expect that we'll learn alot over the next 4-6 weeks about which measures work best given the variety of actions across countries and states.    
Click to expand...
🤞🤞🤞

 
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