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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

The Un-Heroic Reality of Being an ‘Essential’ Restaurant Worker

As a restaurant employee, I’ve been deemed an essential worker. But you’d never know that from the way I’m treated. 

by Sara Selevitch

We started to grasp the severity of the COVID-19 situation about halfway through a Wednesday night shift. It was March 11 and I was on the takeout register at the Los Angeles Vietnamese restaurant where I’ve worked for the past two years. Our busser had been coughing heavily for about a month, and now he was visibly sweating. “I think I have to go home,” he said. At the time, he worked two full-time jobs; diligent and meticulous, he never called out. “Maybe you should go to the hospital,” I told him. At that point, I was naive enough to think he could get tested and treated. He nodded and left. 

News came to us in fragments. One table mentioned the NBA had just ended its season; another was frantic about the European travel ban. I began making a list of food and nonperishables to get from the grocery store. “You should go tonight,” my coworker told me. I jotted down phrases like “alkaline water” and “bags of pasta.” We laughed at my scattered list and our utter confusion, still unsure where this all was going. 

Two months later, we are certain of a few things: The restaurant industry is in trouble, and government relief programs have been woefullyinsufficient. Mom-and-pop establishments, the likes of which Jonathan Gold championed across our city, will most likely be hit the hardest as their owners struggle to stay afloat. 

And in the midst of this national conversation, restaurant employees have been deemed “essential workers,” a heroic title that feels to me, as one such restaurant worker, wildly generous. The reality of work under quarantine has been both more stressful and more farcical than I anticipated, and has made me question what it actually means to be essential.

Since Los Angeles’s Safer-at-Home initiative was instated, the nightly staff at our restaurant has shrunk by more than half, with only one front-of-house person and two cooks per shift. My hours have been reduced from five to two nights a week. We all wear masks: The owners provided each of us with a disposable one when the pandemic started, but by now most everyone has switched to their own reusable ones.

The atmosphere vacillates between tense, normal, and bizarre. For the most part, anxiety over the risk of infection slips to the back of my mind as I deal with the annoyance of needy customers and the stresses of the tasks at hand. But I also try to stay diligent. I spray down the counters incessantly, and “sanitize” the pens (dunk them in bleach) after each use. I rush around matching boxes of food to their tickets while delivery drivers fill the restaurant. I shuffle between the three separate iPads we are now using for online delivery orders. Perspiration pools on my lip beneath my mask as I sweat through slammed shifts. 

Some customers tip generously. But the longer quarantine goes on, the more customers seem to be reverting to their old habits. One night, a woman questioned the 10 percent service fee on her $180 order.

“What’s this?” she asked.

I explained that we put a fee on orders over $100 in lieu of a tip.

“Why?” she asked.

“Because it’s a lot of work…” I offered.

She left unconvinced.

Regulars who never tipped before the crisis have continued their practice of not tipping. “Thanks for staying open!” one of them chirped as he pocketed his change. Another customer put a $5 in the tip jar, then took two $1 bills for change. “I’m leaving you $3,” he told me curtly. During a rainstorm, a customer called and asked that we bring her order out to the car. When I handed her the receipt, she wrote “0.00” and signed her name with a flourish. She was wearing a T-shirt that said “Wild Feminist.” 

The unacknowledged absurdity of the situation is almost comical. I am handing you noodles wearing gloves and a mask because we are in the midst of a global pandemic! I want to yell. I am risking my health for your greasy meal! 

In the midst of a busy Sunday night, a woman called to complain about her order.

“I’m really disappointed,” she said. “I expected the food to be here in time for my virtual happy hour.”

“I don’t know what to tell you,” I responded. “I’m doing my best.”

In moments like these, it’s a relief to let my customer service facade slip away and speak bluntly. I try to keep it moving and turn such encounters into funny anecdotes, but still they stew in my stomach in a simmering rage. When will the efforts and labor of other people be recognized? If not now, when?

Before COVID, about half the restaurant’s takeout business typically came from the third-party delivery apps Caviar and Postmates. During quarantine, it’s grown to 80 percent. Since the customer tips the driver, not the restaurant, cashiers don’t make any money on those orders. As such, they are my lowest priority, and drivers end up with long wait times. They crowd the space around the counter, limiting the possibility of social distancing and creating additional stress. They hover and pester, and I snap back at them. Two newly deemed essential workers face off over whose time is more valuable. 

Right after the pandemic began, my workplace became a Postmates Partner. Beforehand, we charged a 10 percent service fee on Postmates orders that went directly into our tips. But since becoming a partner, we’re no longer allowed to do so. The Postmates Partnership FAQ page boasts “increased visibility” for Partners on their app and website, as well as an average 300 percent increase in orders — meaning I am now handling significantly more orders on which I make significantly less money.

Whenever my coworkers and I have complained about the lack of tipping available on apps, the restaurant’s owners argue that we make $14.25 an hour (aka Los Angeles County’s minimum wage). Online orders, they say, help them recoup money they need to pay us. But in truth, these third-party platforms are just as exploitative to restaurant owners, with the standard commission fee hovering around 30 percent — and their shady practices have continued under the guise of COVID-19 relief. A recent GrubHub promotion offering a $10 discount for customers who ordered $30 of food noted in fine print that the $10 was actually comped by the restaurant, not GrubHub. 

Against my better judgment, I get into a Facebook argument with a former high school classmate who now works for Uber Eats. Before the mayor of San Francisco instructed delivery apps to cap their restaurant fees at 15 percent, Uber Eats had implemented a button on its app allowing the customer to donate to the restaurant, rather than lowering its own fees. My former classmate argues that restaurants would get used to reduced fees and have trouble restructuring once the crisis ends and that relief disappears. I point out that this logic assumes that restaurants can’t balance their own budgets. This same argument is currently being touted by the U.S. government to minimize emergency aid: They don’t want people to get used to it.

What I am getting used to instead is the arrival of a future that tech companies have been priming us for: public spaces populated mostly by delivery drivers purchasing doomsday groceries and meals for those wealthy enough to stay home. 

The reality ignored by every #StayAtHome PSA is that people’s ability to social distance relies on the labor of others. It’s not so much that the work we’re doing is itself essential. It’s our working, rather, that is essential to maintaining the status quo. 

When my mom asks if I’m getting hazard pay, I can’t help but laugh.

The owners of my workplace withheld our paychecks from the March 1 to March 15 pay period until April 10, almost three weeks past payday. They issued our checks only after my coworkers and I launched a collective campaign of prodding and griping. 

“I won’t be able to work going forward if we can’t be paid on time,” I texted one of the owners.

His only response: “We’re doing our best.”

During this time, the restaurant participated in a program to send 100 lunches to health care workers. They announced this act of benevolence in an Instagram post. Several commenters lauded them as “local heroes.” I considered posting a comment asking when these local heroes intended to pay their own employees, but decided against it. 

One of my coworkers thinks we should try to be understanding, that the enemy is capitalism, and the owner is a victim for being dumb enough to buy into it. Another heard that the owners might lose their house. But it’s difficult for me to feel sorry for the people who control my income and whose interest in the plight of their employees depends on the day of the week. Though they offered groceries from the kitchen to all of us employees when the pandemic first hit, my bosses also neglected to disclose when I was hired that I am, in fact, eligible for sick time. I only learned about my accrual after the start of the pandemic, in passing, from a coworker.

But the truth is, I do feel a tug of sympathy. It’s harder to say “#### the boss” when he’s a stressed-out guy I see every day, not a faceless corporation or billionaire villain. 

Before COVID, my coworkers and I had begun to document our grievances, hoping to advocate for necessary changes. Some of the issues — not being allowed to order food on our breaks, micromanaging by the owners — are mostly irrelevant now that daily operations have shifted so drastically. Other issues, like passive-aggressive communication and the battle over service fees, have been exacerbated by the pandemic. Either way, we are now forced to be “in this together,” a phrase insisted upon in every glib managerial email. I want to keep my job, and I want the restaurant to stay open. As angry as I am, I remain bound to it. 

A recent NPR story reported that many workers stand to make more money collecting unemployment than they would continuing to work. Many of my coworkers have decided to stay home, a choice that the owners have, to their credit, been amenable to. 

My choice to keep coming in is mostly out of concern for my manager, a woman in her 50s with greater health risks than me, who I care for deeply and who would otherwise end up working nearly every shift herself. I also want to show solidarity with the kitchen staff and allow for them to maintain an income.

None of us know how long shelter-in-place orders will last and how far government resources will extend; a (mostly) steady paycheck feels more secure than limited unemployment benefits. The fact that assistance is tied to our employment status rather than our needs leads to tricky decisions, betting on which option will position us best long term.

C., one of the cooks I work with, was planning to move to Detroit with his family in May. He lost his other job at a restaurant in downtown LA when that restaurant closed. He’s paying rent in Los Angeles and making mortgage payments in Detroit. As an undocumented worker, he’s not eligible for federal stimulus money, even though he pays taxes. He tells me his savings account is dwindling. 

“I’m trying not to think about it,” he says. “What can I do?” 

California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a planlast month to distribute $500 cash payments to undocumented Californians, but the one-time payment doesn’t alleviate long-term worries. Before COVID, C. and I chatted often about the future, our respective plans. He wanted to learn to be a mechanic. Above all, he wanted to be his own boss. 

The last time I went grocery shopping, I asked the cashier if he felt customers have been kinder or more conscientious since the pandemic began.

He laughed. “All I can say is that people are still people.” 

People in the service industry tip each other well because we understand what this work requires, on normal days and even more so during the pandemic. My hope is for this understanding to extend and grow between workers across industries, as we follow each other’s leads, listen to each other’s demands, and take action where we can. 

But the pandemic has not served as an empathy switch. Though outpourings of support for frontline workers across social media and various news outlets might indicate a cultural rethinking of the value of labor in the U.S., my experiences with both customers and management suggest otherwise. The imperative to thank frontline workers has not extended into material protection and solidarity, from either the government or the general public. 

Customers want their shelves stocked and their takeout delivered. The labor that makes their leisure possible remains, essentially, an afterthought.

Sara Selevitch is a writer and a waitress living in Los Angeles. 
 
Quite a disparity in deaths/million for those with the top reported cases:

U.S. - 283

Russia - 18

Spain - 594

Brazil - 85

U.K.- 521

All the European countries show very high rates of deaths/million.  Did other countries have more time to react and flatten the curve and/or prepare to handle the hospitalizations?  Beyond Europe, the U.S., and some smaller island nations, the next highest rates of deaths per million are Ecuador at 161 followed by Peru at 89
There have been multiple stories in the news about under counting of deaths in Brazil, Peru and Ecuador

 
Watch Georgia and Texas. Within a month it will be evident that we need something along these lines. We need to impose firewalls. 
Don't see any chance they lock down again

There have been multiple stories in the news about under counting of deaths in Brazil, Peru and Ecuador
I can't imagine Russia's numbers are accurate either (or China's).

 
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culdeus said:
Ok, well we all have to evaluate our own personal risks we will take throughout this.  

I'm not worried about asymptomatic spread, at all.  If you have no fever and can draw a breath without coughing I'll make out with you.
But doesn't the first link you gave me (the restaurant / air conditioner one) posit that all those cases were asymptomatic spread?  Technically, it notes that the patient was presymptomatic, but without a time machine, we can't tell the difference at the time.  Clinically, I get that presymptomatic is not asymptomatic, but for practical purposes in real-time, they are identical, are they not?

"Although the index patient (patient A1) was asymptomatic during the lunch, presymptomatic transmission has been reported."

 
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I'm not a fan of publishing stories based solely on something that the reporter saw on Facebook.

I mean, it looks like all the reporter did here was copy the guy's Facebook posts. There was no corroboration and no follow-up. Very lazy, very unprofessional.

That's the kind of "reporting" that you expect to see on Medium or Heavy.com, not a mainstream outlet like NBC.
yeah, that was a ridiculous article - she might as well have just posted the link to the guy's FB page and said "here, read this." 

 
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Connecticut is going to start slowly opening up today.  Restaurants will offer outside dining only.  Retail stores will be open with strict guidelines.  June 20th is the open date for bars, gyms, theaters, nail salons, spas, and tattoo parlors.  Hair salons were scheduled to open today, but that has been pushed back to sometime in June as well.  CT is taking it slow, and overall, the residents have been pretty good doing their part (at least from what I've seen).  IMO, the places that will see the most customers are stores like Best Buy, Books A Million, and Kohl's.  I doubt a ton of people are gonna eat outside, unless the place was already doing it pre-COVID.

 
Sorry, I still don’t get it. How would one use the asymptomatic vs. presymptomatic transmission risk to determine policies for returning to school? 

When would you feel comfortable calling a person with documented C-19 asymptomatic?
You are looking at it the wrong way. It isnt a real time calculation. It is a review process and a way to counter speculative arguments.

For example...

The greater danger, she argued, was that all of these asymptomatic children could potentially infect others who are at higher risk.

"The problem with children is that they are so asymptomatic that they are spreading it. And our biggest mistake was that we didn't close the public schools when we should have," said Hes. "So the children were the vectors to the teachers, who might be elderly or immunocompromised. They might have diabetes or cancer, but they still had to come to work every day. They still had to take the subway every day."

On Monday, the New York City Department of Education announced that 21 teachers have died as a result of coronavirus. 
If we knew that asymptomatic cases couldn't spread it the speculative fear based arguments are out the window.(Side note...the % of teachers dying actually just represent their % of the population of NYC.)

In fact you can see this very argument in this thread (or perhaps the PSF thread). When I brought up that kids were a tiny fraction of the case data for my state, the argument was that they were still getting it, but they were asymptomatic. If we could rule out asymptomatic spread we can actually use the data that they represent for % of cases for decisions for returning to school. 

 
Maryland is reporting 1,784 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases — the largest jump the state has seen — four days after reopening retailers, hair salons and churches at 50%. 

Gov. Larry Hogan is now allowing for tests for all residents — even without symptoms

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/19/858837518/maryland-reports-largest-rise-yet-in-coronavirus-cases-4-days-after-reopening
These numbers are meaningless when states are ramping up their testing.  

 
Watch Georgia and Texas. Within a month it will be evident that we need something along these lines. We need to impose firewalls. 
I thought these states reopened prematurely, but we're getting to the point where we need to start updating our priors.  Neither state has (so far) experienced anything like the surge in infections that people like me were expecting.  We should also toss Florida in there too.

 
These numbers are meaningless when states are ramping up their testing.  
The media loves single data points like that. Same thing was written about WI. Over 500 cases one day. Well then it was 145 and 199. I didnt see the "Wisconsin sees low case count after opening up" articles. Weird huh? 

I actually do of course expect case counts to go up, but a high case count like 36 hours after opening up on a day where the state did more tests than any other day shouldnt mean anything to anybody.

 
Maryland is reporting 1,784 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases — the largest jump the state has seen — four days after reopening retailers, hair salons and churches at 50%. 

Gov. Larry Hogan is now allowing for tests for all residents — even without symptoms

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/19/858837518/maryland-reports-largest-rise-yet-in-coronavirus-cases-4-days-after-reopening
Montgomery County and PG County have NOT reopened ONE BIT.  Nor have a few others (Howard.  Anne Arundel?  perhaps Carroll?).  Anyway, the very populous DC suburbs have stayed locked up tight, just like DC and the NoVa counties.

So you should probably turn your take around:  "Cases surge in state that has mostly stayed locked down."

(ps - the real answer is that it is due to lumpy testing reporting combined with an increase in testing)

 
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You are looking at it the wrong way. It isnt a real time calculation. It is a review process and a way to counter speculative arguments.

For example...

If we knew that asymptomatic cases couldn't spread it the speculative fear based arguments are out the window.(Side note...the % of teachers dying actually just represent their % of the population of NYC.)

In fact you can see this very argument in this thread (or perhaps the PSF thread). When I brought up that kids were a tiny fraction of the case data for my state, the argument was that they were still getting it, but they were asymptomatic. If we could rule out asymptomatic spread we can actually use the data that they represent for % of cases for decisions for returning to school. 
If:

1. The percentage of teacher deaths are equal to the percentage of teacher population, and

2. The percentage of elderly deaths is vastly higher than the percentage of elderly population, and

3. The percentage of elderly teachers is vastly lower than the percentage of elderly population, then

Teacher deaths are significantly overrepresented.

I'm fairly certain that 2 and 3 are correct.  If 1 is correct, as you state, them we're quite right to be worried about teachers being infected at high rates.

 
The media loves single data points like that. Same thing was written about WI. Over 500 cases one day. Well then it was 145 and 199. I didnt see the "Wisconsin sees low case count after opening up" articles. Weird huh? 
Ditto CNN - Texas - meat packing plant 2 days ago.

Why do the media feel the need to report this way?  They are cutting their own throats.

 
These numbers are meaningless when states are ramping up their testing.  
Wouldn’t a 25% positive test rate be a little concerning?

“Along with the new positive tests, 5,368 people tested negative for the coronavirus in the 24 hours leading up to 10 a.m. ET — meaning roughly 25% of the 7,152 tests in that period resulted in positive diagnoses.”

 
Wouldn’t a 25% positive test rate be a little concerning?
If you're testing people who show up in the ER complaining about shortness of breath and coughing uncontrollably, that number would be incredibly -- literally unbelievably -- low.

If you're testing people who just crossed the finish line of their local 10K, it's incredibly high.

You cannot intelligently evaluate numbers like this out of context.

 
If:

1. The percentage of teacher deaths are equal to the percentage of teacher population, and

2. The percentage of elderly deaths is vastly higher than the percentage of elderly population, and

3. The percentage of elderly teachers is vastly lower than the percentage of elderly population, then

Teacher deaths are significantly overrepresented.

I'm fairly certain that 2 and 3 are correct.  If 1 is correct, as you state, them we're quite right to be worried about teachers being infected at high rates.
I compared only to under 65 deaths. 

 
top dog said:
Since COVID deaths are such a touchy thing.. Anyone want to define what a COVID death is?  I hear all the time from folks "Guy had COVID and had a heart attack!  They classified it as a COVID death!  WTF???" 
Like many viruses and diseases...the disease may not be the thing that "caused death"..but it was the likely reason the cause happened.  Someone usually doesn't die of HIV/Aids...they die because their immune system is compromised and something else kills them because of that.  With a respiratory virus...the question is would the heart attack have happened without the virus.  If the virus is deeply entrenched in the lungs...what may end up "killing" the person is the heart attack...but it was likely due to complications from the virus.

People with heart disease...they manage it, change lifestyles...but if you have  weakened system already and it gets attacked by a virus like this...is it the underlying condition that did it?  Or absent of the virus, would the person have died then?  I think things that are called covid are called that because of the nature of the virus and how it attacks someone.

Similar...people have issues while driving...and crash.  Was it the crash that caused death?  Or that they had a stroke or heart attack while driving?

 
I thought these states reopened prematurely, but we're getting to the point where we need to start updating our priors.  Neither state has (so far) experienced anything like the surge in infections that people like me were expecting.  We should also toss Florida in there too.
I do agree that we need to update our perspective.  I know I have done so.  TN is into week 4 and we haven't seen an explosion. 

But what does that mean?

I went to a sit-down restaurant yesterday.   First time I've done so in over 8 weeks.  It was a surreal experience.  They gave everyone in line a big speech.  A huge plexiglass window between the people taking orders and people in line.  Tables all spread apart outside.  The servers bring you stuff, any refills are just new cups, you have to leave out a different door that you came in.  AND there were only about 3 of us in there.

In other words, yes we've re-opened to a degree, but have we really?  We aren't approaching anything that approaches normal life.  So all the people out there saying "WE'VE REOPENED AND SEEN NO EXPLOSION IN CASES, SEE WE WERE RIGHT" are lacking quite a bit of perspective.

 
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I do agree that we need to update our perspective.  I know I have done so.  TN is into week 4 and we haven't seen an explosion. 

But what does that mean?

I went to a sit-down restaurant yesterday.   First time I've done so in over 8 weeks.  It was a surreal experience.  They gave everyone in line a big speech.  A huge plexiglass window between the peple taking orders and people in line.  Tables all spread apart outside.  The servers bring you stuff, any refills are just new cups, you have to leave out a different door that you came in.  AND there were only about 3 of us in there.

In other words, yes we've re-opened to a degree, but have we really?  We aren't approaching anything that approaches normal life.  So all the people out there saying "WE'VE REOPENED AND SEEN NO EXPLOSION IN CASES, SEE WE WERE RIGHT" are lacking quite a bit of perspective.
And not every county reopened 3+ weeks ago either...the hardest hit and biggest cities did not.

 
I do agree that we need to update our perspective.  I know I have done so.  TN is into week 4 and we haven't seen an explosion. 

But what does that mean?

I went to a sit-down restaurant yesterday.   First time I've done so in over 8 weeks.  It was a surreal experience.  They gave everyone in line a big speech.  A huge plexiglass window between the peple taking orders and people in line.  Tables all spread apart outside.  The servers bring you stuff, any refills are just new cups, you have to leave out a different door that you came in.  AND there were only about 3 of us in there.

In other words, yes we've re-opened to a degree, but have we really?  We aren't approaching anything that approaches normal life.  So all the people out there saying "WE'VE REOPENED AND SEEN NO EXPLOSION IN CASES, SEE WE WERE RIGHT" are lacking quite a bit of perspective.
So they're doing it right  :thumbup:  That's great to hear. I wish it was consistently like that across the country but you and I know it won't be. There are going to be flair ups, we know this too. There is going to be a lot of trial and error in the coming weeks/months.

If you believe the Pentagon, we're looking at next year so get used to it. There are going to be some places that are doing it right and some that aren't.

 
"Things i did not expect to read" for 200 alex. 
The chances of me getting sick from my experience have to be 0.  Every precaution possible was taken.  I've definitely changed my opinion on retail/dining.

Two things:

1. I don't know how many restaurants can survive like this

2. I'm probably 1,000% more cautious now than I ever was before.

Those two things are probably why numbers haven't spiked.  Everyone is super cautious and we still aren't having large groups congregate.

How far can we go?  I have no idea.

 
Overall tests vs positives is something I haven't seen discussed too much.  According to worldometer, here are how the states rack up:

15% or higher = NJ (29), NY (24), CT (21), MD (20), DE & PA (19), MA (18), CO (17), IL (16), IN & NE (15)
14 - 10% = IA, SD & VA (14), LA (13), KS & MI (12), MN & RI (11), GA, OH & MS (10)
9 - 6% = AL & WI (8), AZ, FL, ID, MO, NC, NV, SC, TX & WA (7), CA, KY & NH (6)
5 - 1% = AR, ME & TN (5), NM, OK, OR, UT, VT & WY (4), ND (3), MT & WV (2), AK & HI (1)

I don't know what to make of these percentages, but my logic says the higher your positive rate is, the more you should be testing.  I'd feel much better living in a place like ND, which has only a 3% positive rate, yet they rank 3rd in testing per million.  Colorado, on the other hand, has a 17% positive rate, but rank 49th in testing per million.

 
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Not sure if anyone cares, but here was experience at Dentist.

  • Day before appointment took a series of CV related questions over the phone, asked me to take home temperature.
  • Upon arrival they had someone take forehead temperature in car, then let me in.
  • Hygienist was wearing surgical mask over N95 mask, gloves and goggles.
  • They take hygenist/DDS temp 3x a day (didn't see this, but was posted on their list of things they do)
  • Cleaning has limited tools, nothing that requires suction of water.  Polishing and similar done on the slowest setting.
  • Ask you to as much as possible to not engage in small talk (TOTALLY FINE WITH THIS)
  • Ask you to wear mask into/out of rooms and facility
:Shrug:

Cracked a tooth need a crown :kicksrock:
This is pretty consistent with what we're doing.

We also added a music playlist of vintage 80's porn music to play and sales have never been better.

 
I thought these states reopened prematurely, but we're getting to the point where we need to start updating our priors.  Neither state has (so far) experienced anything like the surge in infections that people like me were expecting.  We should also toss Florida in there too.
Texas isn't just what people think.  There is a super high population here, but I bet on average we need to hit a 7-iron to get to our neighbor due to enormous swaths of land with virtually no people.  

Even in what people think of cities, we are loathe to add multi family housing.  So densities even in cities is quite low.  I imagine Georgia is the same.  

We don't use mass transit, we don't get in elevators, and we get outside quite a bit.  All these things should reduce risk of transmission.  Alot.  

Yeah testing here is low, but testing is hard, and every-time the testing has expanded the positive rate has declined more.  Maybe, just maybe we have a perfect setup for something like this.  

 
Like many viruses and diseases...the disease may not be the thing that "caused death"..but it was the likely reason the cause happened.  Someone usually doesn't die of HIV/Aids...they die because their immune system is compromised and something else kills them because of that.  With a respiratory virus...the question is would the heart attack have happened without the virus.  If the virus is deeply entrenched in the lungs...what may end up "killing" the person is the heart attack...but it was likely due to complications from the virus.

People with heart disease...they manage it, change lifestyles...but if you have  weakened system already and it gets attacked by a virus like this...is it the underlying condition that did it?  Or absent of the virus, would the person have died then?  I think things that are called covid are called that because of the nature of the virus and how it attacks someone.

Similar...people have issues while driving...and crash.  Was it the crash that caused death?  Or that they had a stroke or heart attack while driving?
Fair enough.  Anyone from the "COVID deaths are being reported too high" perspective want to take a stab at this?  

** Didn't remember there was an entire thread on this in the Political forum... Going to head over there to read some perspectives **

 
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In other words, yes we've re-opened to a degree, but have we really?  We aren't approaching anything that approaches normal life.  So all the people out there saying "WE'VE REOPENED AND SEEN NO EXPLOSION IN CASES, SEE WE WERE RIGHT" are lacking quite a bit of perspective.
Except for what I believe is a small minority in our country, I think everyone else knows that re-opening things does not equate to returning to normal. Most likely in North Carolina we are going to reopen restaurants on Friday with limited seating capacity. There will be people that will choose to go, but a lot of people are still going to maintain their own self-imposed lockdown (I won't be going to eat inside at a restaurant anytime soon). This is why I have come around on re-opening. We are going to have a second wave, regardless of how long we wait. I believe that we have succeeded in flattening the curve so far, and I think that there are enough people out there who will continue to remain cautious about social gatherings that we may be able to avoid overrunning our hospital system, which was the whole point of why we locked down to begin with. I am a liberal, but also a pragmatist, and I understand that re-opening may mean more lives lost than if we stayed in lockdown until a vaccine comes, but that is impractical, and at some point you have to make a very difficult choice.

 
Texas isn't just what people think.  There is a super high population here, but I bet on average we need to hit a 7-iron to get to our neighbor due to enormous swaths of land with virtually no people.  

Even in what people think of cities, we are loathe to add multi family housing.  So densities even in cities is quite low.  I imagine Georgia is the same.  

We don't use mass transit, we don't get in elevators, and we get outside quite a bit.  All these things should reduce risk of transmission.  Alot.  

Yeah testing here is low, but testing is hard, and every-time the testing has expanded the positive rate has declined more.  Maybe, just maybe we have a perfect setup for something like this.  
Here's a good fact sheet on Texas.

https://grufity.com/world/covid19-coronavirus/US-United-States/TX-Texas

Some of the outlier counties are due to nursing home outbreaks. In east texas about an hour north of Houston there is a large nursing home industry built up there, as the land is cheap and the labor is likewise.  It wasn't a huge shock to see those areas with lots of O&G travel plus the LTC facilities spike.

 
I do agree that we need to update our perspective.  I know I have done so.  TN is into week 4 and we haven't seen an explosion. 
I'm glad you are no longer infuriated by the thought that someone could have been optimistic a month ago and wasn't "blind to the facts and promoting an agenda that will get people killed." at the suggestion that opening up was a good thing and might indicate that the worst is behind us.

 
Except for what I believe is a small minority in our country, I think everyone else knows that re-opening things does not equate to returning to normal. Most likely in North Carolina we are going to reopen restaurants on Friday with limited seating capacity. There will be people that will choose to go, but a lot of people are still going to maintain their own self-imposed lockdown (I won't be going to eat inside at a restaurant anytime soon). This is why I have come around on re-opening. We are going to have a second wave, regardless of how long we wait. I believe that we have succeeded in flattening the curve so far, and I think that there are enough people out there who will continue to remain cautious about social gatherings that we may be able to avoid overrunning our hospital system, which was the whole point of why we locked down to begin with. I am a liberal, but also a pragmatist, and I understand that re-opening may mean more lives lost than if we stayed in lockdown until a vaccine comes, but that is impractical, and at some point you have to make a very difficult choice.
agree.  i think the good news is that we are able to "open" on a limited basis and not see a big surge (TX has seen small increases in daily cases, but not too bad).  the next step will most likely be tougher.

 
Here in Denmark they have just started randomly selecting people for antibody tests. The preliminary result is that just over 1% of the Danish population have had the virus but they need to get another 5000 tests in from those randomly selected to confirm. If it holds true the undiscovered cases would be 5 times what we've seen so far and this is a lot less that previously thought (latest estimates were about 12 times, official estimates have been 30-80 times of confirmed cases).

Again, if it holds true, doesn't jibe very well with a lot of asymptomatic carriers running around and should punch holes in the "we'll soon reach herd immunity" argument

 
I was just told our Corporate office (250-ish people) in Tampa, FL won't fully open until September....with critical meetings likely taking place in office earlier.

I think that conservative approach is driven by both having shown our ability to successfully WFH and the expense/work to make an office pass all requirements.

 
agree.  i think the good news is that we are able to "open" on a limited basis and not see a big surge
That is indeed good news. Unfortunately it may drive expectations. If the economy doesn't improve from this measure (e,g can restaurants survive with half seating or only outdoor service?) there will be extra pressure to open up more and more until we are back where we started three months ago, with no vaccine, and no certainty that completely opening up will restore the economy. If people are reticent about resuming visits to gyms, restaurants etc, those markets will not recover (multiply by sectors so afflicted)

 
If:

1. The percentage of teacher deaths are equal to the percentage of teacher population, and

2. The percentage of elderly deaths is vastly higher than the percentage of elderly population, and

3. The percentage of elderly teachers is vastly lower than the percentage of elderly population, then

Teacher deaths are significantly overrepresented.

I'm fairly certain that 2 and 3 are correct.  If 1 is correct, as you state, them we're quite right to be worried about teachers being infected at high rates.
I compared only to under 65 deaths. 
To elaborate further. i did this analysis on April 20(i know because i have this article bookmarked) That was one month after schools being closed. At the time there were 25 teacher deaths and 13683 NYC deaths. 

If we did a straight population comparison the number of teacher deaths would have been 121. 

I thought I had posted this analysis in here but after many searches I cant find it. But the above shows that obviously I had done some age calculations or I would have said under represented as opposed to just represented. I dont feel like doing it again. 

 
Here in Denmark they have just started randomly selecting people for antibody tests. The preliminary result is that just over 1% of the Danish population have had the virus but they need to get another 5000 tests in from those randomly selected to confirm. If it holds true the undiscovered cases would be 5 times what we've seen so far and this is a lot less that previously thought (latest estimates were about 12 times, official estimates have been 30-80 times of confirmed cases).

Again, if it holds true, doesn't jibe very well with a lot of asymptomatic carriers running around and should punch holes in the "we'll soon reach herd immunity" argument
This doesn't surprise me at all. I never believed there were a ton of asymptomatic people running around, mostly because the WHO document they first released specifically outlined that China could not find many, and that fever testing was key to them stopping the virus.  Which makes sense.

 
This doesn't surprise me at all. I never believed there were a ton of asymptomatic people running around, mostly because the WHO document they first released specifically outlined that China could not find many, and that fever testing was key to them stopping the virus.  Which makes sense.
I still don't understand how asymptomatic carriers efficiently spread the disease given the latest information that person to person spread is the most likely avenue.  No coughs, no sneezes means its very unlikely to spread it if proper hygiene is being followed.

 
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This doesn't surprise me at all. I never believed there were a ton of asymptomatic people running around, mostly because the WHO document they first released specifically outlined that China could not find many, and that fever testing was key to them stopping the virus.  Which makes sense.
Its denmark. Obviously their numbers will be insanely different than the US or italy or the UK. 

It is disingenuous to use countries like Denmark and Norway as models of shut down and isolation successes but then also use them as baselines for antibody studies. 

 
I still don't understand how asymptomatic carriers efficiently spread the disease given the latest information that person to person spread is the most likely avenue.  No coughs, no sneezes means its very unlikely to spread it if proper hygiene is being followed.
Like washing your mouth and nose out?

 
Its denmark. Obviously their numbers will be insanely different than the US or italy or the UK. 

It is disingenuous to use countries like Denmark and Norway as models of shut down and isolation successes but then also use them as baselines for antibody studies. 
Wouldn't there be the same ratio of asymptomatic carriers everywhere?

 
Its denmark. Obviously their numbers will be insanely different than the US or italy or the UK. 

It is disingenuous to use countries like Denmark and Norway as models of shut down and isolation successes but then also use them as baselines for antibody studies. 
No it's not.  The rate should be similar everywhere, if it's the same virus.  I don't get this logic at all.

 
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I still don't understand how asymptomatic carriers efficiently spread the disease given the latest information that person to person spread is the most likely avenue.  No coughs, no sneezes means its very unlikely to spread it if proper hygiene is being followed.
Most people spit a lot when they talk.  

 
I still don't understand how asymptomatic carriers efficiently spread the disease given the latest information that person to person spread is the most likely avenue.  No coughs, no sneezes means its very unlikely to spread it if proper hygiene is being followed.
There's still the idea that regular ol' breathing in a sizeable room will spread COVID-19 -- no coughing or sneezing required.

 
Maryland is reporting 1,784 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases — the largest jump the state has seen — four days after reopening retailers, hair salons and churches at 50%. 

Gov. Larry Hogan is now allowing for tests for all residents — even without symptoms

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/19/858837518/maryland-reports-largest-rise-yet-in-coronavirus-cases-4-days-after-reopening
14 days for it to show up.  What happened to that?

 

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