What? Isn't that what everybody's said about exponential growth? Those small percentage spread it to two people and so on and so forth? It's amazing how the narrative has changed all of a sudden.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
His statement was hundreds of thousands dead because of the riots. That is unlikely due to other contact points social distancing. Which is the point of social distancing, to blunt the spread.
Doug B
Footballguy
Galileo
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Yeah, weird. I was just about to post this statement from the article he posted that he said proved wearing masks was kabuki theater:
”The evidence from these laboratory filtration studies suggests that such fabric masks may reduce the transmission of larger respiratory droplets.”
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
joffer
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
More likely $0. From what I can tell insurance companies are taking the full hit for Covid related care.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Which will probably just be passed on to everyone in a premium increase next year, or is Uncle Sam cutting them a check?
tri-man 47
Footballguy
Oddly, no daily report from Peru in Covid worldometers. Even without their number, new cases topped 110,000, and deaths were over 4,500. Brazil (27K) jumps back atop the U.S. (22K) in new cases. Nearly a 40% jump in Nicaragua.
trader jake
Footballguy
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gobrowns33
Footballguy
I honestly don't think the majority of the people in the country give a crap about coronavirus anymore. Daily cases/spikes in cases do not mean anything as long as deaths and hospitalizations keep declining...it is better that the virus cycles through as many healthy people as possible. Regardless, it will fade from the news faster now and people are going to continue on back to normal.
-fish-
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
Went for a quick beer with wifey yesterday. Still can't go inside to eat or drink here in CT, but was sunny day. Stopped by uncle's house. He lives alone and is 73, but in very good shape for his age (probably better than me, and I am 20 yrs younger). We pull into driveway, get out of car with masks on and head towards his door. He comes out and tells us to take these stupid things off our faces. I was simply expecting to chat for a few minutes outside with masks and social distancing. Figured I was doing a good deed by visiting an old relative who likely hasn't seen too many people recently. Instead, he forces us into his house, demands we drink beer, and we end up 3 feet apart, no masks, hooting and hollering. I say, must be nice to have company, huh? His reply - the UPS guy just stopped by and I invited him in for a soda.
The Commish
Footballguy
proteus126
Footballguy
What are they doing with their computations??
MD had been holding steady around 0.95 for a week or more. Now it is 0.86, and when I click "Last Week" and "Two weeks ago" it is 0.86 and 0.87, respectively. I'm sorry, but with that kind of action, I need some sort of explanation before I get bent out of shape over a jump - my first guess is going to be that they tweaked a parameter again.
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The Commish
Footballguy
They altered their testing volume inputs to more accurately account for the increase in testing on 5/20. So some places will have a pretty decent drop if they're really ramping up testing. Others will have an increase if testing hasn't been so good. They also put in an overlay for when each started their "open back up" events. Check out Georgia
proteus126
Footballguy
Gotcha - and I saw a note to that effect on the website - but what I'm saying is that TWO days ago MD was where it had been (circa 0.95) for quite some time - a week or two as I recall - and I was shocked to see it yesterday at 0.86. That's a drop of basically 0.1 in one day. Something is goofy with that big of a jump...
Or I've had a stroke and am completely misremembering numbers that I thought I have been paying reasonably close attention to for some time.
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shader
Footballguy
I don't quite get their numbers on TN. TN is definitely on the upswing. After being around 350 cases/day for the last 3 weeks, 5 straight days over 400 and yesterday was +821. The last two days were some very high testing numbers though, so as you mention, that may account for why TN's numbers haven't risen much.
shader
Footballguy
I think every day that it runs, it goes back and re-runs the curve for the entire month?
As an example, there was a point where TN jumped to the highest R value in the country. But if you look at the TN numbers now, you can't see that point, because the newer data wiped it out. The process constantly reevaluates the entire curve.
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The Commish
Footballguy
Been wondering if this is true. I can't find that on their site though, but it would make sense and explain how things have changed.
The Commish
Footballguy
Here in Florida...testing has been a huge focus and continues to increase. That said, we are creeping to the magic "1" number even though testing has been the primary focus. To suggest we are within the fed gov't "guidelines" is fantasy land, but we are continuing to move forward
worrierking
Footballguy
The Louisiana numbers have jumped around quite a bit since the change on 5/20. I have lost some confidence in the site since the change. I don't really know what to think anymore.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I read it a while ago and I think that was the takeaway I got from it. Making up numbers here but if you have 1,000 cases today, and they estimate the Rt today is 1.1, then 2 weeks from now you'd expect to have 1,100 cases. Two weeks from now if you actually only have 1,050 cases, then they'll go back and correct today's Rt to 1.05. I'm sure that's not exactly how the calculations work, just giving a rough illustration of how it might make sense to continually revise the numbers.
jamny
Footballguy
Yeah, it was a site I was relying on but seems all over the place now. I'll continue to monitor it but won't be surprised by any numbers jumping around anymore.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Between faulty reporting, data mishaps (which we, LA, have had several... for real examples, "system was down so no new cases today, they'll be reported tomorrow" and "3 new labs with 2-month old results came online today and are included in today's numbers"), I still contend the daily case counts are not a reliable indicator. Active cases (which means recoveries have to be accounted for) and percentage of positive tests are, to me, the things to watch for, outside of deaths and hospitalizations (and specifically, hospitalizations as a percentage of hospital capacity).
jamny
Footballguy
I've made my thoughts known on just using new case numbers. Hopefully there isn't a spike in hospitalizations over the next month or so.
shader
Footballguy
Me and a friend have a lot of lively discussions about "active cases" vs daily case counts. All he cares about is active cases, and I spend most of my time watching daily cases.
I don't understand your point that faulty reporting and data mishaps show that daily case counts are not a reliable indicator. If this bad reporting affects one category, it will affect both, as active cases encapsulates the daily reporting. Of course we never put too much faith in one daily number. For instance, if TN reports 2,000 cases today, that would be an outlier. It's why I like to average new cases out over a period of time.
The reason many focus on new cases, it's because it's a leading indicator. Active cases is an important stat, but it's not really telling you anything about what's happening going forward. We know that 99% of people that get covid will eventually shed the virus, so if there are 500 new cases today, at some point in time 495 people will recover.
For me, active cases is very important when trying to forecast future cases, as the virus is only going to spread from active people.
But new cases is that first line of data that is telling us that the virus may be starting to spread again..
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Doug B
Footballguy
A lot of this R-number tracking reminds me of weighing yourself while on a long-term weight-loss diet.
If you weigh your self every hour, you'd see all kinds of fluctuations and think you weren't getting anywhere. If you weigh yourself once a week, the pattern of weight loss would instead be readily apparent.
shader
Footballguy
I think that's definitely true of anyone looking at any of the numbers daily. Great analogy.
I've noticed as my attention has shifted to the protests over the last week, that it doesn't take away from my ability to figure out what's going on with covid. Every few days I can peak at the numbers and see what's happening, and I'm good.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Fair enough. I should've added that I think that number of tests is equally important when talking new case numbers. I guess it's kind of implied when talking about the percentage of positives (which I mentioned), but seeing the number as well might be helpful.
Regarding the bolded, I'm saying we have experienced several times now where there were reporting discrepancies where big jumps in new cases were not as they seemed, as a large (majority, even) of the day's "new cases" were, in fact, old results just now being reported. @Doug B's point above would help speak to that. Maybe a new case weekly average, or a new-cases-7-day trend would help tamp down the outliers.
The Commish
Footballguy
This is what worldometer is doing essentially, correct? The rt.live is focused on spread etc. Both have their place in my view. Just need to remember (and be clear about) what each is attempting to do.
The Commish
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Circling back to Stat's link from his wiped post.
He gives that link to establish that non-medical face coverings do pretty much nothing at all, in either direction. But from within that linked paper, leading off the "EFFECTIVENESS OF HOMEMADE FABRIC MASKS IN PROTECTING OTHERS" section:
Maybe the next paragraph makes the "no masks!" point a little better? This part is about symptomatic patients and how well commercially-available face-coverings hindered actual cough particles:
But -- ain't there always a "but" with these things? -- the Bae et al "four-patient" study got publicly retracted yesterday by the author's themselves:
...
As much as I would like to get back to pre-COVID no-mask days ... the data informing recommendation of public face-covering usage for source control (protecting others) still has scientific consensus behind it, so far as I can ascertain.
shader
Footballguy
I totally agree. Great example is Florida. I just refreshed world-o-meter and , sorry @The Commish, they just registered 1,317 new cases. That's their 2nd highest daily rise of all-time. It's not time to freak out yet. But if tomorrow is 1,400 and then the next day is 1,500, then the narrative changes dramatically.
The Commish
Footballguy
Since April, we've had multiple days with 1000+ spikes. I've already talked about what was happening in Belle Glade Florida....funny how that's not made the news in any meaningful way isn't it? I don't freak out about it a whole lot because I know there is a focus on testing here that I haven't heard replicated in other areas, so when looking at Florida, I kind of stick to rt for a better gauge. I expect the number to go up as testing increases.
Statorama
gangster
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson - whose models closed down most of the world - admits hard lockdowns produced the same results as Sweden's soft lockdown (without destroying their economy)
shader
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
Anyone notice AL, ME, and UT are the only 3 states that have been in the red the entire 6 weeks? Let's look at each for a second...
Alabama - 133 deaths per M (#24), 3828 cases per M (#21), 45867 tests per M (#34)
Maine - 70 deaths per M (#39), 1768 cases per M (#41), 43047 tests per M (#38)
Utah - 35 deaths per M (#46), 3182 cases per M (#28), 69181 tests per M (#11)
The states are quite different, from location to weather to the numbers above. Yes, I understand the Rt factor isn't tied to the numbers above, but can anyone think of a reason why these 3 particular states share this common link?
Alabama - 133 deaths per M (#24), 3828 cases per M (#21), 45867 tests per M (#34)
Maine - 70 deaths per M (#39), 1768 cases per M (#41), 43047 tests per M (#38)
Utah - 35 deaths per M (#46), 3182 cases per M (#28), 69181 tests per M (#11)
The states are quite different, from location to weather to the numbers above. Yes, I understand the Rt factor isn't tied to the numbers above, but can anyone think of a reason why these 3 particular states share this common link?
Doug B
Footballguy
Can't vet dnyuz.com -- who or what is behind that site?
Besides, the language in the article is leading and gratuitously political: e.g. "... convincing Boris Johnson to radically curtail everyday freedoms ..."
TheWinz
Footballguy
A deeper dive into worldometer, and SD & MO stand out to me as well, for opposite reasons. SD ranks 14th in cases per M, but 38th in deaths per M. On the flip side, MO ranks 40th in cases per M, but 25th in deaths per M. Is SD testing alot of healthy folks while MO is testing alot of sick folks?
The Commish
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
NYC Expands Free COVID-19 Testing To All
This has been a trend in testing availability for at least a month now.
NY's most recent update is 135 new hospitalizations, 2978 total hospitalizations, and 49 new fatalities. 278 people left the hospital. Every trend looking better.
So what happens? Major mass protesting with thousands gathered together with no social distancing. Probably taking trains and buses to do so.
They are younger people, mostly outside, half or so wearing masks. But still, just when NY overcame a lot with slowing the spread.
3 months of pain and we'll jeopardize it now? Not good.
This has been a trend in testing availability for at least a month now.
NY's most recent update is 135 new hospitalizations, 2978 total hospitalizations, and 49 new fatalities. 278 people left the hospital. Every trend looking better.
So what happens? Major mass protesting with thousands gathered together with no social distancing. Probably taking trains and buses to do so.
They are younger people, mostly outside, half or so wearing masks. But still, just when NY overcame a lot with slowing the spread.
3 months of pain and we'll jeopardize it now? Not good.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
I can't speak to SD or MO, but for us (LA), here are some numbers to kick around, from my own private data stash.TheWinz said:
As of today we have tested 402,087. We have 41,113 positives for a 10.23% rate. And of those 41,113, only 9,405 (2% of all tests completed, 23% of total positive results) are currently active cases.
The General
Footballguy
Seems like Sweden is starting to question (or at least the architect of their plan) the way they handled this.Statorama said:
LINK
“If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Anders Tegnell said in an interview with Swedish Radio.
