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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

Our daughter did so much better with the online learning (she's fairly advanced for her age) that we're actually considering home schooling. My wife is a stay at home mom though so that's easier for us than most which I realize. The social aspect is the hardest part of course but our district looks like they're going to do split days at the very least and if cases continue to climb we'll be virtual anyway. 

 
I disagree.  Kids going to school has everything to do with old people.  If old people were dying at the rate of school aged kids, this thread wouldn't exist, and nothing would've shut down.  Most wouldn't even know the name COVID.
So explain to us your plan for teachers, administrators and people that work at the school--is it just screw them too?

Over 74 teachers/admin died in just NY alone from the virus. 

Kind of hard to conduct school when you have teachers getting the virus or unwilling to work because of said virus. 

 
So explain to us your plan for teachers, administrators and people that work at the school--is it just screw them too?

Over 74 teachers/admin died in just NY alone from the virus. 

Kind of hard to conduct school when you have teachers getting the virus or unwilling to work because of said virus. 
No staff over 60, or those have any kind of pre-existing conditions, or those that are in close contact with any at risk people. Simple.

 
So explain to us your plan for teachers, administrators and people that work at the school--is it just screw them too?

Over 74 teachers/admin died in just NY alone from the virus. 

Kind of hard to conduct school when you have teachers getting the virus or unwilling to work because of said virus. 
Masks?  Why are teachers more special than grocery store workers for example?

 
So explain to us your plan for teachers, administrators and people that work at the school--is it just screw them too?

Over 74 teachers/admin died in just NY alone from the virus. 

Kind of hard to conduct school when you have teachers getting the virus or unwilling to work because of said virus. 
The small % of teachers and admin this applies to need to be adjusted for.

Don't adjust the entire school age population for them.

 
I disagree.  Kids going to school has everything to do with old people.  If old people were dying at the rate of school aged kids, this thread wouldn't exist, and nothing would've shut down.  Most wouldn't even know the name COVID.
You disagree with what?  My situation?  Ok....sure?  All I can tell you is our situation has no calculation for old people...disagree away I guess :shrug:  

 
Some CDC stats...

For the 4 month period from 1 Feb thru 30 May, 1,030,799 died in the US.  Of that, 88,243 were attributed to COVID (8.56%).  Based on age though,

Under 1 year old = 5/5377 = 0.09%
1 thru 4 years = 3/1048 = 0.29%
5 thru 14 years = 12/1523 = 0.79%
15 thru 24 years = 106/9442 = 1.12%
25 thru 34 years = 583/20133 = 2.90%
35 thru 44 years = 1524/28975 = 5.26%
45 thru 54 years = 4238/55415 = 7.65%
55 thru 64 years = 10586/131405 = 8.06%
65 thru 74 years = 18360/202513 = 9.01%
75 thru 84 years = 23612/252786 = 9.34%
85 and over = 29214/322182 = 9.01%

Even as deadly as COVID has been to our senior population, it still only accounts for 1 out of every 11 deaths in all 3 of the oldest age brackets.

 
No one is shutting anything down again. Even if it’s warranted no one is going to adhere to it short of Marshall Law being put in place.

@shader to the white courtesy phone please...

(yes I’m trolling, sorry)
Where is this idea that “no one is shutting anything down again” coming from?  Because it’s absurd.

Why would you, or anyone else think that?

 
So explain to us your plan for teachers, administrators and people that work at the school--is it just screw them too?

Over 74 teachers/admin died in just NY alone from the virus. 

Kind of hard to conduct school when you have teachers getting the virus or unwilling to work because of said virus. 
The point I was trying to make all along was schools are not being shut down for the safety of children.  It's for the safety of adults, and in particular, older adults.  Yes, I know teachers, staff, etc. are adults.  I just didn't like hearing schools are closed for the sake of the kids, because that is false.  Think of it like your local nail salon.  They are pretty much in the last opening up phases.  Schools, on the other hand, don't even have a phase in some places.  At what point are kid's educations considered essential?  Evidentally, it comes somewhere after ladies getting their nails done.

 
No one is shutting anything down again. Even if it’s warranted no one is going to adhere to it short of Marshall Law being put in place.

@shader to the white courtesy phone please...

(yes I’m trolling, sorry)
is Marshall Law like some famous quotes from Laverne and Shirley?

 
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You disagree with what?  My situation?  Ok....sure?  All I can tell you is our situation has no calculation for old people...disagree away I guess :shrug:  
No, no, no.  This is about kids and school in general.  This has nothing to do with you personally, or your kids, or their grandparents.  Sorry if you thought I was singling you out.  I wasn't.  You just happened to be the person I replied to, that's all.

 
Where is this idea that “no one is shutting anything down again” coming from?  Because it’s absurd.

Why would you, or anyone else think that?
Dude...it's not going to happen.  Just look around...look at all the states "opening" as things start to trend in the wrong direction.  This is the reality you need to get used to GB

 
Some CDC stats...

For the 4 month period from 1 Feb thru 30 May, 1,030,799 died in the US.  Of that, 88,243 were attributed to COVID (8.56%).  Based on age though,

Under 1 year old = 5/5377 = 0.09%
1 thru 4 years = 3/1048 = 0.29%
5 thru 14 years = 12/1523 = 0.79%
15 thru 24 years = 106/9442 = 1.12%
25 thru 34 years = 583/20133 = 2.90%
35 thru 44 years = 1524/28975 = 5.26%
45 thru 54 years = 4238/55415 = 7.65%
55 thru 64 years = 10586/131405 = 8.06%
65 thru 74 years = 18360/202513 = 9.01%
75 thru 84 years = 23612/252786 = 9.34%
85 and over = 29214/322182 = 9.01%

Even as deadly as COVID has been to our senior population, it still only accounts for 1 out of every 11 deaths in all 3 of the oldest age brackets.
So many things cause death, how many different causes for the 1,030,799? Where does covid rank on the list of causes?

 
No, no, no.  This is about kids and school in general.  This has nothing to do with you personally, or your kids, or their grandparents.  Sorry if you thought I was singling you out.  I wasn't.  You just happened to be the person I replied to, that's all.
ok....my comments are specific to our situation....not the overall.  Thanks for clearing that up.

 
Where is this idea that “no one is shutting anything down again” coming from?  Because it’s absurd.

Why would you, or anyone else think that?
I don't see it happening in Ohio.  Individual companies may shut down, but there are enough people that are fed up with the governor that they will not listen to any orders.  The state law makers are backing the people and not the governor.

 
And I should also say, in terms of schools shutting down in the overall picture, it made sense to do it initially.  They are petri dishes.  That's not news to any of us.  It made sense to shut them down simply because of how easily it would spread there even if the spread didn't impact them physically as much as it does older people, so I get it.  At the same time, if I ever catch this thing, I am confident it will be because of my kids.  They will give it to me.  I am a WFH person and have little interaction with the outside world.  Between my kids and coaching baseball, those are the primary ways it will get into our household.  I can control how I interact with the general public, but I can't control how kids interact with each other.  We'll take all the precautions we can as they go back to school, but it's not unreasonable to assume schools are going to contribute to the spread....not all that different than sporting events, concerts, festivals etc.

 
So explain to us your plan for teachers, administrators and people that work at the school--is it just screw them too?

Over 74 teachers/admin died in just NY alone from the virus. 

Kind of hard to conduct school when you have teachers getting the virus or unwilling to work because of said virus. 
So it's ok for police, firefighters, and nurses to be essential workers and actually work but not teachers? So teachers aren't essential 

 
Dude...it's not going to happen.  Just look around...look at all the states "opening" as things start to trend in the wrong direction.  This is the reality you need to get used to GB
I don't understand why it not happening now means that it won't happen in the future?  States are opening because at the moment there is no disaster.  Florida is, overall, fine.  Same with every state.  No state has an outbreak, our lockdowns ended them all.

But as soon as another outbreak hits and they are bringing huge refrigeration trucks to hold all the dead bodies, like they did in New York a few months ago, do we really think it will be business as usual then?

Will all states close down?  Probably not.   But many states will reinstitute the same measures they did the first time, and why wouldn't they?  They worked the first time, so they will work a second time.

Right now, states are hoping that they can learn to live with the virus and keep it from getting out of control.  But I don't see how that says anything about what will happen if it does get out of control.

 
I don't see it happening in Ohio.  Individual companies may shut down, but there are enough people that are fed up with the governor that they will not listen to any orders.  The state law makers are backing the people and not the governor.
I can't speak to whether people will listen to orders.  That's a whole other subject.  But if Ohio becomes a raging hotspot in the future (it's not now), they will definitely reinstitute stay-at-home orders.  

The one thing that may change in the future is that these orders will be more targeted.  But they are coming again, and I think it's amazing to see how many people think they aren't.  No wonder the stock market is up so much.  

 
I don't understand why it not happening now means that it won't happen in the future?  States are opening because at the moment there is no disaster.  Florida is, overall, fine.  Same with every state.  No state has an outbreak, our lockdowns ended them all.

But as soon as another outbreak hits and they are bringing huge refrigeration trucks to hold all the dead bodies, like they did in New York a few months ago, do we really think it will be business as usual then?

Will all states close down?  Probably not.   But many states will reinstitute the same measures they did the first time, and why wouldn't they?  They worked the first time, so they will work a second time.

Right now, states are hoping that they can learn to live with the virus and keep it from getting out of control.  But I don't see how that says anything about what will happen if it does get out of control.
One factor you are not taking into account - will the Police forcefully shut down businesses that refuse to close a second time?

 
My daughter loves the online learning. She is upset she missed freshman softball though


Yeah, our kids liked it too.  They do miss their friends, but that's changing now that sports are opened back up here.  I'm not sure if I could handle them home all the time :lol:  but if that's the right thing to do, I will put them first and do it.
Probably highly dependent upon location and participation of teachers (and parents).

First few weeks...a few of my son's teachers did better keeping up with things.  Especially his Spanish teacher who held 1 hour zoom classes twice a week and gave them some work to do.  His photography teacher gave them 2 "projects a week".  Ok, photography sounds odd as a class I guess...their school is broken up into "Academies" and you have your normal classes and an academy pathway.  He chose digital design and communication...so one of his classes has revolved around photography and editing.  He loves it.  Ok back to the story.  After a little it and more guidance from the district...some of his teachers made it a bit more of a pain in the butt IMO.  WIth things not being required...it was hard to get kids to really take the full time to do work.  So when they all put out even more work...and it wasn't going to count.  He fell behind in a few classes.  We tried to keep him up to date with Spanish and Math and some Chemistry as those things will build for future classes (mostly the math and chemistry).  Some with English too...but his english teacher was more about reading certain books and he had already started a different book on his own before she put things out there.

My daughter's teachers were the opposite...early on it was a couple little IXL (online program/quiz thing) each week.  Nothing big.  But then, with direction of their principal, they put out weekly lessons.  They were sent on Sunday nights.  Something to do each day for each class.  It probably took her an hour and a half to do each day's work.  Plus she read some every day and did a couple art projects through the week. 

I think she got much more out of it than he did.  And Id expect they would expand to a bit more work and deadlines to make things count (which would motivate him a bit more if things counted).   But neither of them liked much of it at all and are both hoping they go back to school.  The district announced a plan...and also a plan to purchase and have enough laptops so that every student can have a computer...and be provided internet access. (something that was keeping them from requiring the online learning this past year is the number of people without those things in such a large district).

 
I am of the opinion that we should very soon start to see covid-19 related bumps in Minnesota.  Probably a bit too early for other protest cities (I'd imagine numbers from other cities should start to hit this weekend or next week), but if these protests are going to cause big jumps, it should start in Minnesota.  Thus far it's been quiet, which is great.

 
I don't understand why it not happening now means that it won't happen in the future?  States are opening because at the moment there is no disaster.  Florida is, overall, fine.  Same with every state.  No state has an outbreak, our lockdowns ended them all.

But as soon as another outbreak hits and they are bringing huge refrigeration trucks to hold all the dead bodies, like they did in New York a few months ago, do we really think it will be business as usual then?

Will all states close down?  Probably not.   But many states will reinstitute the same measures they did the first time, and why wouldn't they?  They worked the first time, so they will work a second time.

Right now, states are hoping that they can learn to live with the virus and keep it from getting out of control.  But I don't see how that says anything about what will happen if it does get out of control.
You have more faith in people and politicians than I do....just don't see it happening.  Something I wouldn't mind being wrong about.

 
I have no idea.  That wasn't really my point.  
The point others were trying to make was - Governors can make all the decisions they want, but it's up to the public to choose to adhere.  And when (not if) the public does not adhere (whether it be masks, 6 foot rule, or businesses staying open), do you think law enforcement will step in?  We have to face facts right now - once things open back up, the public decides if they will close again - not the Governors.

 
So explain to us your plan for teachers, administrators and people that work at the school--is it just screw them too?

Over 74 teachers/admin died in just NY alone from the virus. 

Kind of hard to conduct school when you have teachers getting the virus or unwilling to work because of said virus. 
No staff over 60, or those have any kind of pre-existing conditions, or those that are in close contact with any at risk people. Simple.
Would we continue to pay those employees?  Where would the money come from to hire replacements?  Would that be federal money?

How would we handle children living with family who have high-risk factors?  Would those children stay home?  How would they be taught?

Depending on the details, I could possibly get on board with this idea.

 
The point I was trying to make all along was schools are not being shut down for the safety of children.  It's for the safety of adults, and in particular, older adults.  Yes, I know teachers, staff, etc. are adults.  I just didn't like hearing schools are closed for the sake of the kids, because that is false.  Think of it like your local nail salon.  They are pretty much in the last opening up phases.  Schools, on the other hand, don't even have a phase in some places.  At what point are kid's educations considered essential?  Evidentally, it comes somewhere after ladies getting their nails done.
To be fair, the school year is already over in many locations, and even in places where it's not, is there really any point to reopening schools with a week to go?

 
No staff over 60, or those have any kind of pre-existing conditions, or those that are in close contact with any at risk people. Simple.
I think everyone is glancing over the ‘pre-existing’ conditions as another way to brush it off as something they don’t need to worry about. Some of the pre-existing conditions that are so frequently mentioned are hypertension and obesity. Do you have any idea how many teachers either have high blood pressure or are overweight? Most of them.

And everyone else? Sure they aren’t dying at large clips but there are many do get very sick and hospitalized, not to mention we don’t know what kind of long term effects it may have.

It’s rather short-sighted to believe that you can just take a couple simple steps and it’s going to be alright. If kids do prove to be spreaders of the virus, it will increase the viral load in the community significantly. And no matter how much you think you can isolate the elderly, at-risk people, it will get to them. Opening up schools is a big risk and a lot of places will do it, we just have to hope that kids can’t spread it.

 
So explain to us your plan for teachers, administrators and people that work at the school--is it just screw them too?

Over 74 teachers/admin died in just NY alone from the virus. 

Kind of hard to conduct school when you have teachers getting the virus or unwilling to work because of said virus. 
Masks?  Why are teachers more special than grocery store workers for example?
Not how it works. 

 
Not how it works. 
It most certainly is.  Certain workers have taken precautions to allow them to work onsite during the pandemic so what makes teachers so special they can't?  That's assuming schools take the precautions, and it seems most are, like limiting the number of students in a classroom at a time etc..

 
It most certainly is.  Certain workers have taken precautions to allow them to work onsite during the pandemic so what makes teachers so special they can't?  That's assuming schools take the precautions, and it seems most are, like limiting the number of students in a classroom at a time etc..
Teachers wearing masks isn't going to significantly prevent them from contracting COVID from an infected person not wearing one.  The kids would have to wear masks to protect the teachers.

 
I am of the opinion that we should very soon start to see covid-19 related bumps in Minnesota.  Probably a bit too early for other protest cities (I'd imagine numbers from other cities should start to hit this weekend or next week), but if these protests are going to cause big jumps, it should start in Minnesota.  Thus far it's been quiet, which is great.
If you see a "bump"... that is a clear green light to re open immediately and fully.  And not look back.

 
Would we continue to pay those employees?  Where would the money come from to hire replacements?  Would that be federal money?

How would we handle children living with family who have high-risk factors?  Would those children stay home?  How would they be taught?

Depending on the details, I could possibly get on board with this idea.
Yes, federal money will pay for everything. I think we've established we can conjure up as much money as it takes for anything.

It is up to the family members to protect themselves. The kids could go to school.

 
Yes, federal money will pay for everything. I think we've established we can conjure up as much money as it takes for anything.

It is up to the family members to protect themselves. The kids could go to school.
How would this work?  Imagine a family where the parent is high-risk (due to say, asthma) and the child is, let's say, 7 years old.  Is the parent supposed to avoid the child?  Let's further imagine it's a single parent household.  Now what?  How about a family with two children, where one has Cystic Fibrosis?  How will those children be educated?

Again, I could be on board, but I think we need to think it through and not rush to "solutions".

 
How would this work?  Imagine a family where the parent is high-risk (due to say, asthma) and the child is, let's say, 7 years old.  Is the parent supposed to avoid the child?  Let's further imagine it's a single parent household.  Now what?  How about a family with two children, where one has Cystic Fibrosis?  How will those children be educated?

Again, I could be on board, but I think we need to think it through and not rush to "solutions".
They can continue to do whatever they are doing now. The option to go to school if they so choose will just now be available to them.

 
To be fair, the school year is already over in many locations, and even in places where it's not, is there really any point to reopening schools with a week to go?
Certainly wouldn't open schools just for a few days.  Let the kids have their usual summer, then open back up at normal time, fully.  Students are essential workers, and attending classes, in person, is their job.  I won't try to debate home schooling, and perhaps it's better for a student who cannot social distance from grandparents, etc.

 
It’s rather short-sighted to believe that you can just take a couple simple steps and it’s going to be alright. If kids do prove to be spreaders of the virus, it will increase the viral load in the community significantly. And no matter how much you think you can isolate the elderly, at-risk people, it will get to them. Opening up schools is a big risk and a lot of places will do it, we just have to hope that kids can’t spread it.
Agree with the bolded. "Isolate the elderly" IMHO is much, much harder than some people seem to think.

In an era where tons of young adults continue living with their parents into their late 20s/early 30s ... you can't just assume that all that many young adults pretty much never deal with "old people". On top of that is the number of households containing both school-age children and senior citizens -- I would bet it's pushing 15%. On top of THAT is the number of elderly people who serve as after-school caregivers or as daycare providers for grandchildren. Plus some more families in which grandparents are raising grandchildren directly.

 
I won't try to debate home schooling, and perhaps it's better for a student who cannot social distance from grandparents, etc.
I think the item in red is a much bigger cohort than commonly thought. It's not a handful here and there.

 
Teachers wearing masks isn't going to significantly prevent them from contracting COVID from an infected person not wearing one.  The kids would have to wear masks to protect the teachers.
My point was more about other industries.  Plenty of industries are "open" with workers wearing masks but the clients are not necessarily wearing them.  It's been like that for a while and teachers shouldn't be treated differently. 

 
I think the item in red is a much bigger cohort than commonly thought. It's not a handful here and there.
How many kids, living in the burbs with their middle to upper middle class parents, also live with their grandparents?  Kids living with grandparents is a money thing, or lack of it.

 
My point was more about other industries.  Plenty of industries are "open" with workers wearing masks but the clients are not necessarily wearing them.  It's been like that for a while and teachers shouldn't be treated differently. 
For groceries and retail -- at least around here -- Plexiglas barriers are almost universal. Mask usage among customers is inconsistent, but generally good (north of 2/3 typically, sometimes more like 90%). 

 
From twitter - 

BREAKING: For the 3rd day in a row Texas set a new record for hospitalizations. Texas has now seen hospitalizations increase 42 percent since Memorial Day.

We now have 2,153 people in hospitals - that's an increase of 97 since yesterday and 642 since Memorial Day. State is still reporting about 13,600 hospital beds available. Gov. Abbott's office assured me we have enough beds to deal with this increase right now.

Over last 7-days we are now averaging 1,927 hospitalizations per day. During previous 7 days that was 1,737 per day. Before that? 1,601 per day. Clearly upward trend.

--

Clearly an upward trend. The question is - is it an acceptable rate? Tough call.

 
How many kids, living in the burbs with their middle to upper middle class parents, also live with their grandparents?  Kids living with grandparents is a money thing, or lack of it.
It's more complicated than that when you take an expansive top-of-the-mountain view. Don't confuse 'your normal' with 'everyone's normal'.

In my experience, it is common (if not a majority) of middle and upper-class households to have an elderly relative living with them. YMMV.

 
I can't speak to whether people will listen to orders.  That's a whole other subject.  But if Ohio becomes a raging hotspot in the future (it's not now), they will definitely reinstitute stay-at-home orders.  

The one thing that may change in the future is that these orders will be more targeted.  But they are coming again, and I think it's amazing to see how many people think they aren't.  No wonder the stock market is up so much.  
You are correct about Ohio, Governor DeWine has already shown that he will make science based decisions with the goal of protecting Ohioans.

If another shutdown of some level becomes warranted due to surging ICU numbers, he would do it before it got past the tipping point rather than after.

 

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