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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

based on what I can see

What do you see? 

ETA I see Ecuador, Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico having rampant viral spread

Edited by msommer

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21 hours ago, Doug B said:

I never have seen how to read a QR code on my phone. I’m sure it’s easy ... just never saw how it was done :shrug: 

Its strangely inconsistent on our phones here at home it seems.

Installed a new Orbi wifi router.  Have the QR code that can let devices join without adding in all the IDs and passwords.  It was 50/50 in our house as to which phones properly pulled up the QR code using the camera on the phone and which didn't.  Odd...my wife and son both have an iPhone XR...one pulled it up, one didn't.  My wife's work phone was an iPhone 7 (she just upgraded to an 11 Pro and everyone in the house is jealous...seriously, she uses it for emails and playing games and that's it...but it was a free upgrade through her office program so she got it)...anyway, she has a 7...my daughter uses my old 7.  One of them pulled up the code, the other didn't.

Its quite strange.

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23 minutes ago, jplvr said:

I didn't watch the video, but you couldn't be more wrong with your first point. No one was talking about contact tracing or unreasonable testing numbers until the lock downs started. It was all about flattening the curve. I was never in favor of lock downs, but considering what we saw in Italy and were starting to see in Spain, I didn't complain. We could not let our hospitals be overwhelmed like we were seeing there. Contact tracing and "we need (this many) tests per day" talk only started popping up when we started discussing reopening.

This is just false and revisionist history.  I keep posting links from mid-March that discuss testing and tracing.  They keep getting ignored in favor of the "you're moving the goalposts" narrative.  Here's one from March 19, again: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

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1 minute ago, Grahamburn said:

Second waves and the virus getting rolling again have been a theme of yours for quite a while in here.  I keep wondering why you think that will happen with all of the precautions being taken across the country?  The initial wave of the virus took hold without any mitigation.  The majority of people will continue to distance, be careful, wash their hands, wear masks, stay home if they're able, and generally aren't completely returning to normal behavior even with businesses being able to open.

Completely eradicating the virus doesn't seem to be an immediate option.  The majority of people contracting this will recover.  Protect the vulnerable. 

(Current conversation in my office as we are taking temperatures of anyone entering the building:  "What's our cutoff temperature?  100.4.  He's at 99.8.  I think we should send them home."  Point being people are still extremely afraid, and will continue behaving that way.  Opening a few businesses isn't going to move the needle that much more. 

It's not a theme of mine.  It's the reality of what is going to happen.  When more people start gathering, the virus will break out again.  It's science.  Hopefully the precautions you talk about will keep the exponential spread from reaching a level that is anything close to the level of spread that was happening in March, but the cases are going to go back up as people start gathering again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-hot-spots-erupt-across-the-country-experts-warn-of-possible-outbreaks-in-south/2020/05/20/49bc6d10-9ab4-11ea-a282-386f56d579e6_story.html

 

Great article above.  Here's a snippet from Fauci:

"Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Wednesday he has “no doubt” there will be new waves of cases.

“The virus is not going to disappear,” he said in an interview with The Washington Post. “It’s a highly transmissible virus. At any given time, it’s some place or another. As long as that’s the case, there’s a risk of resurgence.”

 

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I would still lean towards the metric for urban areas having a 700/100k active caseload and rural areas having a 150/100k caseload as "The Line".  (The WHO figure)

700/100k was more or less when SHTF in Louisiana and NY so that seems to hold up ok in the US.  

Now if you can manage that level of cases while not having that many geriatrics in the mix, then you could support more, clearly.  But Americans, specifically, seem to lack the will to impose policy on geriatrics.  

If you could get a split policy objective, perhaps as much as 2000/100k could be sustained.  Maybe even more?

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39 minutes ago, Courtjester said:

The whole thing is a cluster you know what.

Let me see if I understand this, you can't get the virus by surface contact. The virus isn't airborne , so you can't get it that way. Conclusion: 100k Americans have died because they were spit on is where we are at now?

No one knows anything about this virus--period. They are just throwing stuff against the wall and hoping to be the one agency/doctor that was right when this thing is studied and understood 5-10 years from now.  

Just frustrating....

I remember reading an article that said something like Corona isnt airborne, but it is born of the air.

Made me laugh. 

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4 minutes ago, msommer said:

What do you see? 

ETA I see Ecuador, Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico having rampant viral spread

So, we are trying to compare some third world countries and some going into winter months with the thesis that warmer weather is possibly slowing down the spread?

From the beginning, it's been stated that this virus is going to effect poorer countries to a much higher degree than richer countries.  This is only now beginning and will get worse.

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4 minutes ago, shader said:

It's not a theme of mine.  It's the reality of what is going to happen.  When more people start gathering, the virus will break out again.  It's science.  Hopefully the precautions you talk about will keep the exponential spread from reaching a level that is anything close to the level of spread that was happening in March, but the cases are going to go back up as people start gathering again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-hot-spots-erupt-across-the-country-experts-warn-of-possible-outbreaks-in-south/2020/05/20/49bc6d10-9ab4-11ea-a282-386f56d579e6_story.html

 

Great article above.  Here's a snippet from Fauci:

"Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Wednesday he has “no doubt” there will be new waves of cases.

“The virus is not going to disappear,” he said in an interview with The Washington Post. “It’s a highly transmissible virus. At any given time, it’s some place or another. As long as that’s the case, there’s a risk of resurgence.”

 

I'm not denying that.  I don't expect it to disappear.  I do not expect it to be nearly as bad as it was initially though. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

I'm not denying that.  I don't expect it to disappear.  I do not expect it to be nearly as bad as it was initially though. 

We will see.  The first time, the numbers started from 0, but the environment was one that promoted explosive growth.  This time, the numbers start from 1.1 million (probably way more), but the environment is much less conducive to spread.

Edited by shader

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Just now, guru_007 said:

So, we are trying to compare some third world countries and some going into winter months with the thesis that warmer weather is possibly slowing down the spread?

From the beginning, it's been stated that this virus is going to effect poorer countries to a much higher degree than richer countries.  This is only now beginning and will get worse.

I'm trying to use the data available, and that data doesn't seem to support dinsy's hypothesis.
Whether their health care is third or first world has no influence on the spread of the disease, only the number of dead

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, msommer said:

What do you see? 

I see three weeks of increased activity in the US, accompanied by continuing declines in cases (especially if you account for increased testing) hospitalizations and deaths.

I see seasonal patterns in other respiratory diseases and (informed) speculation that COVID will behave in the same way.

I see that a disease with a baseline R0 of 2-3+ could be impacted by weather and still be well above 1.0, especially in high-density places like Brazil.

Are you saying you're sure it isn't impacted by weather?  That seems like a radical stance.  Or did you just not like "seems to"?  Is "may be" better?

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz

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59 minutes ago, shader said:

This is the type of statement that could really come back to haunt him soon.

OR it could be a statement we look back on and say "wow, he was right."

Anyhow, one of the things that got floated in here for 5 minutes was taking some of these underutilized hospitals, fill them full of COVID patients and make them centers of COVID research. I'm paraphrasing but you get the idea. On the surface, seems like a good idea but then I don't know #### about hospital management.

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1 minute ago, beer 30 said:

OR it could be a statement we look back on and say "wow, he was right."

Anyhow, one of the things that got floated in here for 5 minutes was taking some of these underutilized hospitals, fill them full of COVID patients and make them centers of COVID research. I'm paraphrasing but you get the idea. On the surface, seems like a good idea but then I don't know #### about hospital management.

He's the director of the Centers for Disease Control.

Maybe I'm naive, but shouldn't his only goal be eliminating the virus, instead of promoting an environment where the disease will spread easier than it's spreading today?  It's the freaking CDC man!  And this is a pandemic!  

The "save the economy" mantra has taken over, and I get it.  The economy is in rough shape.  But somehow there seems to be this idea that reopening is not necessarily going to lead to an increase in cases, and that's just flat out false, and the CDC knows it.

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54 minutes ago, Courtjester said:

The whole thing is a cluster you know what.

Let me see if I understand this, you can't get the virus by surface contact. The virus isn't airborne , so you can't get it that way. Conclusion: 100k Americans have died because they were spit on is where we are at now?

Scientists would say to both of the bolded items "We never said that -- we just communicated probabilities and likelihoods."

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1 hour ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Closed stable door, meet free-roaming horse.

It is OK to eat the horse, though, since it is domesticated. :deadhorse:

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19 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

I see three weeks of increased activity in the US, accompanied by continuing declines in cases (especially if you account for increased testing) hospitalizations and deaths.

I see seasonal patterns in other respiratory diseases and (informed) speculation that COVID will behave in the same way.

I see that a disease with a baseline R0 of 2-3+ could be impacted by weather and still be well above 1.0, especially in high-density places like Brazil.

Are you saying you're sure it isn't impacted by weather?  That seems like a radical stance.  Or did you just not like "seems to"?  Is "may be" better?

I'm saying that I haven't seen data that points to a significant impact by weather yet

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1 minute ago, msommer said:

I'm saying that I haven't seen data that points to a significant impact by weather yet

We agree then.  "Seems to me" meant only that.  I suspect we'll find out it's true, but there's no hard evidence yet.

 

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1 hour ago, JbizzleMan said:

I am part of a new-parent group online and somebody posted this. It's pretty informative. The author is a "Comparative Immunologist and Professor of Biology (specializing in Immunology) at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth."

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Good read. I’m more and more convinced that mask use, especially indoors or when in crammed outdoor spaces is a critical component to preventing the spread. 

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2 hours ago, jobarules said:

All this sterilization stuff companies are doing with uv lights and sanitizer seems like overkill (showmanship) now with the CDC saying that it is very difficult to transmit the virus via surfaces. Are you guys still wiping down groceries and baking mail?

We started wiping down groceries the first few trips...but no, not at all anymore.

I do run my phone, keys, debit card and things others may have touched or I touched prior to hand sanitizer or washing hands...run those through a UV light machine I have for my Cpap equipment.  Some of that was something I planned when looking at that device prior to covid to be able to periodically sanitize phone and remotes and things we touch often that can fit in the machine.  Just to be more sanitary all around.  Use it on our toothbrushes every few days as well.

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15 minutes ago, shader said:

We will see.  The first time, the numbers started from 0, but the environment was one that promoted explosive growth.  This time, the numbers start from 1.1 million (probably way more), but the environment is much less conducive to spread.

Personally, I'm seeing parallels to San Francisco in the Spanish Flu outbreak, they responded great to the first wave, got complacent after it, and got crushed by the second wave.

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2 hours ago, Doug B said:

Answer for the house:

Depth of specialized knowledge and experience. 'Doctors' are not interchangeable commodities like cinder blocks or loose-leaf paper.

Like not all engineers are the same...or accountants.  Not all accountants know about taxes.

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25 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

I see three weeks of increased activity in the US, accompanied by continuing declines in cases (especially if you account for increased testing) hospitalizations and deaths.

I see seasonal patterns in other respiratory diseases and (informed) speculation that COVID will behave in the same way.

I see that a disease with a baseline R0 of 2-3+ could be impacted by weather and still be well above 1.0, especially in high-density places like Brazil.

Are you saying you're sure it isn't impacted by weather?  That seems like a radical stance.  Or did you just not like "seems to"?  Is "may be" better?

This is only true if you because of NY. NY is seeing a decline, virtually everywhere else is still seeing an increase in numbers. But since NY had the most cases by such a large margin, their decline skews the overall numbers. 

We can argue whether or not the number of cases and the amount of increase everywhere else is cause for concern, but I think it’s important to understand that it’s not really the case that other states opened things up and saw a decline in their state after that.

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32 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

This is just false and revisionist history.  I keep posting links from mid-March that discuss testing and tracing.  They keep getting ignored in favor of the "you're moving the goalposts" narrative.  Here's one from March 19, again: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Oh please. You guys clearly keep moving the goalposts. We were never going to "save one life" by staying locked down. The whole point was to keep our medical system from being overwhelmed, and we've done a good job of that. I'm not one of those goons saying it was an overreaction, but to act like we are ever going to have the ability to do some of this stuff going forward in this country is asinine. 

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Not sure how adding in serological testing is "hiding numbers", isn't that what is done every year at the end of flu season anyways?

Explain.

 

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4 minutes ago, jplvr said:
47 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

This is just false and revisionist history.  I keep posting links from mid-March that discuss testing and tracing.  They keep getting ignored in favor of the "you're moving the goalposts" narrative.  Here's one from March 19, again: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Oh please. You guys clearly keep moving the goalposts. We were never going to "save one life" by staying locked down. The whole point was to keep our medical system from being overwhelmed, and we've done a good job of that. I'm not one of those goons saying it was an overreaction, but to act like we are ever going to have the ability to do some of this stuff going forward in this country is asinine.

So March 19 isn't far back enough?  How far back do we need to go to show that the narrative today is exactly the same?

You bring up another question that's been asked dozens of times in this forum, yet never answered.  Why is testing and tracing so hard?  Why isn't it possible in this country, while lots of other countries are doing it quite successfully?

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7 minutes ago, jplvr said:

Oh please. You guys clearly keep moving the goalposts. We were never going to "save one life" by staying locked down. The whole point was to keep our medical system from being overwhelmed, and we've done a good job of that. I'm not one of those goons saying it was an overreaction, but to act like we are ever going to have the ability to do some of this stuff going forward in this country is asinine. 

A bit surprised that you are allowed to post here today after calling @shader and I idiots yday. Oh well, the mods decide what is allowed by whom I assume

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1 hour ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

 

Deaths are down 40%, we're doing 400,000 tests a day, the CDC is focusing on contact tracing and it does seem like warm/wet weather inhibits transmission -- progress!

Still need to improve on all three measures during the summer while we can -- it's in everyone's interest that this be as contained as possible by end of August/early September before a potential, bigger, second wave.

Cases continue to rise consistently for the country....we can't get to a second wave until we get through the first one.  Original hotspots may be seeing some pretty good progress and coming out of their emergencies, but the country as a whole is still very much in the escalation phase of the first wave....still

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No idea what's going on, but Maryland, Florida and Virginia all showing new cases over 1k today.  All represent big increases over yesterday.

In Florida, this is their highest number of new cases in one day since April 17th.

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11 minutes ago, shader said:

He's the director of the Centers for Disease Control.

Maybe I'm naive, but shouldn't his only goal be eliminating the virus, instead of promoting an environment where the disease will spread easier than it's spreading today?  It's the freaking CDC man!  And this is a pandemic!  

The "save the economy" mantra has taken over, and I get it.  The economy is in rough shape.  But somehow there seems to be this idea that reopening is not necessarily going to lead to an increase in cases, and that's just flat out false, and the CDC knows it.

Not going to lie, I posted that to see your reaction and you didn't disappoint.

Below seems reasonable to me, what am I missing?

"Redfield stressed that even as coronavirus infections wane, health care officials should be on the offensive, prepared for a possible second wave either or or in addition to an upcoming flu season. He also implored state health departments to improve their guidelines for handling further coronavirus outbreaks, including isolated outbreaks in nursing homes and other residential care facilities."

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3 minutes ago, shader said:

No idea what's going on, but Maryland, Florida and Virginia all showing new cases over 1k today.  All represent big increases over yesterday.

In Florida, this is their highest number of new cases in one day since April 17th.

Belle Glade Florida is getting really bad.  The hospital doesn't have the capacity they need.  My MIL is an ER nurse and she's been working 18 hour days.

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1 minute ago, Sammy3469 said:

I also heard via local sports radio that something like half of the construction workers at the stadium in Tuscaloosa have Covid, and they're threatening to I think either sue or strike, I can't remember.

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6 minutes ago, shader said:

No idea what's going on, but Maryland, Florida and Virginia all showing new cases over 1k today.  All represent big increases over yesterday.

In Florida, this is their highest number of new cases in one day since April 17th.

I'd also venture that April 17 quite possibly had some Easter backlog reporting

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2 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Belle Glade Florida is getting really bad.  The hospital doesn't have the capacity they need.  My MIL is an ER nurse and she's been working 18 hour days.

They're also 20+ miles away from any other hospital, and that's over a stretch of road bordered by either cane fields or swamp.

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56 minutes ago, shader said:

We will see.  The first time, the numbers started from 0, but the environment was one that promoted explosive growth.  This time, the numbers start from 1.1 million (probably way more), but the environment is much less conducive to spread.

Where are getting 1.1m cases as a starting point unless you believe we actually have 1.1m ACTIVE cases RIGHT NOW. Do you really think they are tracking recoveries of people who test positive but are not hospitalized?

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20 minutes ago, Kal El said:

Personally, I'm seeing parallels to San Francisco in the Spanish Flu outbreak, they responded great to the first wave, got complacent after it, and got crushed by the second wave.

i agree completely.

It is a historical blueprint of a pandemic. We are just blowing off the lessons learned from that time thinking if we do the same things, we will get a different result. 

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5 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Not going to lie, I posted that to see your reaction and you didn't disappoint.

Below seems reasonable to me, what am I missing?

"Redfield stressed that even as coronavirus infections wane, health care officials should be on the offensive, prepared for a possible second wave either or or in addition to an upcoming flu season. He also implored state health departments to improve their guidelines for handling further coronavirus outbreaks, including isolated outbreaks in nursing homes and other residential care facilities."

Trolling me bro? :lmao:

 

Look, as @Doug B said, he hedged his bets.  But look at what happened with the WHO and their infamous tweet in February.  It has haunted them ever since.

 

My point is that no one will remember all the hedging of bets when this thing explodes into a second wave. They will remember that the head of the CDC said that the US is ready to reopen.

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Just now, Courtjester said:

i agree completely.

It is a historical blueprint of a pandemic. We are just blowing off the lessons learned from that time thinking if we do the same things, we will get a different result. 

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

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1 hour ago, culdeus said:
On 2/19/2020 at 7:13 AM, culdeus said:

Reports are they are seeing good results from a malaria drug.  It's also super cheap. 

:whistle:

The F.D.A. issued a safety warning on April 24 for hydroxychloroquine, which it said could cause dangerous abnormalities in heart rhythm in coronavirus patients. The drug should be used only in clinical trials or hospitals where patients can be closely monitored for heart problems, the F.D.A. said

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Where are getting 1.1m cases as a starting point unless you believe we actually have 1.1m ACTIVE cases RIGHT NOW. Do you really think they are tracking recoveries of people who test positive but are not hospitalized?

Just using the data we are being given.  If it's inaccurate, don't blame me.

In any event, 1 million is a safe bet.  If this virus has a 1% death rate, 1% of a million is 10,000.  I think it's pretty likely that we'll see 10,000 deaths over the next 2 weeks, don't you?

Edited by shader

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Kal El said:

They're also 20+ miles away from any other hospital, and that's over a stretch of road bordered by either cane fields or swamp.

Correct...the good thing about the hospital is it IS new...it's only been opened a few years.  It's simply not big enough to deal with something like this.  Will be interesting to see how long it takes for this to make the news or if it's ever reported in a daily briefing.  In my experience, this is the exact demographic that gets "accidentally overlooked" more often times than not.  I'm not holding my breath.  

Edited by The Commish

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1 hour ago, Grahamburn said:

Second waves and the virus getting rolling again have been a theme of yours for quite a while in here.  I keep wondering why you think that will happen with all of the precautions being taken across the country?  The initial wave of the virus took hold without any mitigation.  The majority of people will continue to distance, be careful, wash their hands, wear masks, stay home if they're able, and generally aren't completely returning to normal behavior even with businesses being able to open. 

I don't know how we can assume that the majority of people will continue to distance, be careful, wash their hands, wear masks, stay home if they're able.

And even if it is a majority, if the minority that is running around not practicing any of this, is sizeable enough, the majority is kinda ####ed anyway

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1 hour ago, Grahamburn said:

Second waves and the virus getting rolling again have been a theme of yours for quite a while in here.  I keep wondering why you think that will happen with all of the precautions being taken across the country?  The initial wave of the virus took hold without any mitigation.  The majority of people will continue to distance, be careful, wash their hands, wear masks, stay home if they're able, and generally aren't completely returning to normal behavior even with businesses being able to open.

Completely eradicating the virus doesn't seem to be an immediate option.  The majority of people contracting this will recover.  Protect the vulnerable. 

(Current conversation in my office as we are taking temperatures of anyone entering the building:  "What's our cutoff temperature?  100.4.  He's at 99.8.  I think we should send them home."  Point being people are still extremely afraid, and will continue behaving that way.  Opening a few businesses isn't going to move the needle that much more. 

careful.  dont argue too much with him or he will report you. or maybe he will put you on ignore so he doesn't have to read anything he doesn't believe in.  he wants the country to continue being  shut down until the COVID is completely eradicated and then stay closed and quarantined for 6 months after that just to be sure.    really not worth the effort trying to convince him of anything.

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15 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Belle Glade Florida is getting really bad.  The hospital doesn't have the capacity they need.  My MIL is an ER nurse and she's been working 18 hour days.

That stinks Commish, I hope your MIL stays safe.  If you're anywhere around my age (and I know you've been on this board a long time so you probably are), that probably puts your MIL into a tough age bracket to be faced with this level of exposure.  :(

 

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10 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Not sure how adding in serological testing is "hiding numbers", isn't that what is done every year at the end of flu season anyways?

Explain.

 

Federal guidelines for reopening suggest you need to be able to test at a certain level to be able to open safely and manage any spikes. These guidelines are referring to active infection tests, not antibody test. Antibody tests do little to help monitor active outbreaks or assist in contact tracing.

By adding the antibody testing, it makes it look like they’re doing more testing than they actually are making them seem more prepared to open up.

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3 minutes ago, need2know said:

careful.  dont argue too much with him or he will report you. or maybe he will put you on ignore so he doesn't have to read anything he doesn't believe in.  he wants the country to continue being  shut down until the COVID is completely eradicated and then stay closed and quarantined for 6 months after that just to be sure.    really not worth the effort trying to convince him of anything.

Somehow the ignore feature showed me this post.  I don't recall ever reporting anyone.  I have made frequent use of the ignore feature, though it only works half the time.  Your next statements about what I want are all completely false, which is probably why I had you on ignore to begin with.

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On 5/19/2020 at 9:46 AM, Senor Schmutzig said:

I have an appointment scheduled for Thursday. BYO Mask, stay in the car until a room is available and they call you.

I wonder if I should bring my own mask for the nitrous too. Damn. Where am I going to find one of those?

Crisis averted. Just called the Dentist and they did indicate that the nitrous option is still available. Sign me up. 

My own tunes, some nitrous, close my eyes. Maybe I'll just take a nap while I'm at it. 

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23 minutes ago, shader said:

That stinks Commish, I hope your MIL stays safe.  If you're anywhere around my age (and I know you've been on this board a long time so you probably are), that probably puts your MIL into a tough age bracket to be faced with this level of exposure.  :(

 

She's in her early 60s but you'd never know it.  She's out boozin' it up with us, going fishing, diving, you name it.  I'm concerned for her because of exposure, but I don't think she'd have a problem getting over it if she had it...at least that's what I tell myself.  The good (?) thing is, her mother, who's in Alabama, has fallen ill so she's not there right now.  She's in Alabama with her.  Of course that leave my FIL at home all by himself.  He has diabetes and requires dialysis.  He thinks the virus is a hoax.  My wife is freakin' out.  If he gets it, he will most certainly die.

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