Thanks. I'm wondering about some demographics on those who test positive versus negative. Such as age, occupation or status, location of work, household size, type of residence, travel history, etc. Something contact tracers would gather to give more clues about the risks for spreading. This could identify super spreaders, for example.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
encaitar
Footballguy
I doubt they're being as callous about it, but that's pretty much what Sweden has done. Brazil's president refuses to even talk about the virus, much less act on it. I think quite a few European countries will find themselves in the same boat wrt the population not accepting a second shutdown.... probably not the places hit hardest like Italy, France, and Spain, but certainly some of the ones where the virus really didn't wreak havoc.
I think that's what will happen here too. I fully expect NYC and New Jersey to be ready to shutdown quickly if things turn bad again for them. They experienced the real bad and I doubt they'll want to do it again. Meanwhile, places like Florida, Texas, and even California I think will struggle to appeal to their constituents regarding a shutdown considering how "mild" the first wave was in those places. If a second wave does happen it could get ugly in some parts of the country.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
I bet we are seeing the Memorial Day weekend fallout right now and thus the higher testing numbers. In two to three weeks I bet we will see the protest numbers and lets just hope all the mask wearing that went on will mitigate the results. One can only hope.
Warrior
Footballguy
All the coverage I watched of the protests, they were wearing masks at a better than the crowd at the grocery store I work at. I don’t think it will matter much and we will see huge consequences from the protests, but a lot of the protesters were wearing masks.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
If hospitals get overwhelmed, they'll turn back.The Commish said:
culdeus
Footballguy
Why can't military field hospitals work? It doesn't seem like treatment is more than here lay down and let us give you O2 and some malaria medicine that may or may not work.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
We had a similar conversation during my hospital's planning for C-19. But 80 wasn't the cut-off.
And I bet places in NYC made those types of decisions, yet people believe the system wasn't overwhelmed.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Good point. I know this has greatly accelerated burnout among healthcare providers - not just from concern for personal wellbeing and physical exhaustion, but also frustration with the flippancy exhibited by a big chunk of the public.
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Clearly we're not that clever here in the Sunshine State. As an added bonus, hurricane season has started, which means supplies will start disappearing again, especially if a named storm starts wandering close, and there's a story out that there won't be an El Niño this year, which means hurricane season could be that much worse!
I get the sneaking suspicion that by Thanksgiving, there will be a giant meteor headed our way, just because it's been that kind of year.
the moops
Footballguy
Most of these industries don't involve being in the same small room with 30 other people for 7 hours a day. Teachers most certainly should be treated differently
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
There's always going to be some percentage of people who don't understand. Widespread education on the subject of reducing transmission might be helpful to reduce that percentage, perhaps efforts to remove the stigma of wearing a mask might as well. It's nothing personal to any one individual, basically the virus doesn't care about anyone personally.
It doesn't seem controversial: I don't want to give it to you, and you shouldn't want to get it from me. I wear a mask so you don't get it from me, and I also stand 8 feet away from you at all times. Truthfully I never liked it when you were closer than that to me anyway. :sarcasmbutkindatrue:
Really though it does stink that handshakes, quick hugs and the like aren't the same socially, and lots of other "regular" interactions we normally did with like no thought given. Especially tough for kids. But my daughter will go to summer camp and I'll watch things like a hawk. She's my daughter so I do that anyway.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Right on. I think we can open things back up but we also need to do so while taking precautions. Anyone who is adamantly against face coverings loses a ton of my respect. Just wear the stupid thing so we can get things rolling while protecting each other. I totally get why politicians are hesitant to open things back up more in a lot of states because they have seen just how selfish such a significant part of the population is and know that those folks are going to unnecessarily cost people their lives.top dog said:
Redwes25
Footballguy
We will lock back down if we get another NYC somewhere. Maybe not the whole country but parts impacted should would.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
What’s really concerning is that it’s not just an increase in numbers, it’s that a lot of states are seeing a higher rate. The hope with increased numbers of tests would be that the rate would fall as you open testing to a wider group that would supposedly have a lesser chance of having it as compared to when tests had to be rationed for the folks who showed worse symptoms. At worst you’d hope to see a flat rate. To see the rate INCREASE as testing increases is a pretty bad sign.
Of course the other number that is just as important is what the number and rate of hospitalizations and deaths are. If those rates are dropping enough to offset the higher infection rates, then we’re still ok. If the hospitalization and death rates are the same or increasing, or even dropping just slightly, we’re going to see a major problem.
shader
Footballguy
TN has an increased positivity rate over the last two weeks as well.
Due to that, Nashville mayor also paused the re-opening and is staying at “phase two” due to the slight rise in cases that we have.
South Florida, on the other hand (maybe even central Florida), looks like a disaster waiting to happen.
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shader
Footballguy
100%. I feel like we’ve all forgotten what this virus is. In an infected area, it won’t be a matter of politics, it will be a necessity.
Will that ever spread nationwide like the first time? I think it will, but I can also see scenarios where it stays regional.
Pipes
Footballguy
WDIK2
Footballguy
Had to make a quick stop at Walmart on the way home from work this afternoon. Other than the employees and myself I would say < 5% were wearing masks. :( I shouldn't really make the assumption, but I would guess 25% of people in the store are in the moderate to high risk category. 
I don't think I will stop there again for a while.
ETA: I was honestly pretty surprised. The Menards just up the street is still requiring masks.
I don't think I will stop there again for a while.ETA: I was honestly pretty surprised. The Menards just up the street is still requiring masks.
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Lots of people have been saying this from the start, yet it hasn't materialized yet. I wonder if it's due to the time curve outdoors vs. indoors combined with population density.
Sand
Footballguy
This been posted? https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Study-100-face-mask-use-could-crush-second-15333170.php
We need a 50 state edict on mandatory mask use. I believe this study - we have direct evidence from SK, etc.
A pox on the WHO and the anti-vaxxers, who seem to have morphed into anti-maskers.
We need a 50 state edict on mandatory mask use. I believe this study - we have direct evidence from SK, etc.
A pox on the WHO and the anti-vaxxers, who seem to have morphed into anti-maskers.
It would be great if it happened but very unlikely. I’ve seen mask use rise since AZ started going downhill but still lacking. It’s not the opening up that’s a problem, it’s everyone letting down their guard thinking it’s over. What I didn’t expect was so many people just don’t care even when they hear things are getting bad. But I guess the clues were always there.
gump
Footballguy
Memorial Day is now 2.5 weeks past and beaches in the Tampa Bay area were packed the week before that...with locals...
The Z Machine
Footballguy
This is a major issue. By not acting quickly and decisively at the start of this pandemic, we've stretched this out and the population is fatigued.
Look at the number of new cases in Italy. They have droppped to 1/100th of the peak (maybe more) over the last 2 months There are places in the US that are hitting new peaks every day.
This is a failure of our leadership and our populace both.
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joffer
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Stay safe man. Curious did they announce the employee by name? I am assuming that is against the law.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
He Who Must Not Be Named shares some of that pox. I seriously don’t think a lot of people will listen.
not Voldemort
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Memorial Day weekend fallout is one reason, the mass protests without distancing numbers will cause a spike in the next week or two in many areas well. Minnesota expecting a big uptick in the St. Paul and Minneapolis areas.
beer 30
Footballguy
Forget it, he's teflon in here
They tried it, hardly any got used, they tore them all down. Yes it will work, will anyone outfit the Javits Center again? Only cost someone a couple million to set up and it didn't get used. Or the hospital ships we dispatched to San Fran & NYC that never got used.
It’s part of opening responsibly and a good reason why NY probably won’t have as bad of a second wave.
shader
Footballguy
That's great news. It's one of many reasons why the NE is showing a clear decline in cases, and the South is showing a clear rise in cases.
If I go to the store here in TN, it's 80% without masks. I can't speak for Texas, Florida, Georgia, NC, Alabama etc. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's nowhere near 100%
Doug B
Footballguy
Preach. Here's plenty of backup ... more corroboration for "mysterious" spread through simple breathing and for dropping fomites way down as a statistically likely transmission vector.
Graphics:
New-infection trends in NYC after implementation of (a) social distancing, (b) stay-at-home orders, and (c) mandatory face coverings. (from Topol's tweet)
Airborne transmission vs. Droplet transmission visual aid (from Topol's tweet)
the moops
Footballguy
Here in Twin Cities, it really depends on what store you go to. Home Depot - 25% tops. Lunds and Byerly's (old peoples favorite grocery store) - 95%. Trader Joes - 95%. Local small Ace hardware - 50%
shader
Footballguy
I wonder what the R0 of this virus would be if life was 100% back to normal, aside from masks. Concerts, sporting events, travel...all back exactly like it was.
The one obvious place this wouldn't work is restaurants, since people have to eat. Crowded restaurants are a really big challenge. Not sure there's a good solution there.
The one obvious place this wouldn't work is restaurants, since people have to eat. Crowded restaurants are a really big challenge. Not sure there's a good solution there.
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Coronavirus: Florida sets another record with 1,902 new cases of COVID-19
This could be due to more testing and the opening of the economy and the recent protests. Someone needs to do a deeper dive into the data.
This could be due to more testing and the opening of the economy and the recent protests. Someone needs to do a deeper dive into the data.
Doug B
Footballguy
I still don't think they're needed outdoors for almost all activities. I guess outdoor crowds, like at a MLB game or a park concert or something.
shader
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Starting to look like a bunch of other prospective vectors are falling away, and we're pretty much left with "people breathing indoor in stale air", doesn't it?
I think that (a) face coverings plus (b) frequent hand sanitizing would get society back very close to normal. Also think that some changes in HVAC standards would go a long way -- a focus not merely on temperature control, but also on frequency of air exchange.
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themeanmachine
Footballguy
I live in an area with basically 100% compliance for indoor masks, every store I go to. I’m shocked to read how different it is in other areas. I can’t understand it. Just put the ******* mask on. If you don’t, you are either a selfish ******* or a moron, there are no other options. Just put it on. Anytime you are in a public indoor place or a crowded outdoor place. So stupid that people are fighting this. In the future, when we look back on all this, and why the US was so much worse and it dragged out so much longer than other countries, mask compliance will be seen as a major factor.
shader
Footballguy
If we don't see absolute explosions off the back of the protests, I think we can pretty much shut the door on extensive outdoor spread.
The issue of course, is that people congregating indoors is such a massive part of the economy. It's why, imo, the market is going down again. The market is waking up to the reality of what the next 6-9 months are going to be.
Airplanes, airports, conventions, churches, restaurants, indoor malls, movie theaters, bowling alleys, bars, clubs, office buildings, hospitals, doctors offices, arenas, basketball, domed stadiums, hockey...
The list goes on and on. Yeah it might just be indoor facilities, but that's very significant in terms of the impact.
So my question is, what would everyone wearing masks do to the spread in all of those places?
If a super spreader was on an airplane with a proper mask on, how many would he spread it to?
I know we don't know that, but those are the questions I'd love to see answered, to some degree.
Doug B
Footballguy
Do you remember maybe two or three weeks ago, when we were kicking around in this thread an interesting blog that made a distinction between (a) 'cavernous' indoor spaces with a large volume of air per person, and (b) small indoor spaces? The author put forth that grocery stores, big-box retail, and other high-ceiling-type places were way safer than subways, airplane cabins, small offices shared by three people, etc.
