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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)



I'm surprised the numbers have been as low as they are given what I'm seeing.  It's almost like this virus is a lot less contagious than it start.
Really unwise by the business and the patrons. Especially the business, really irresponsible.

The virus is extremely contagious and the positive %, hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise in many places. People get extremely sick from this. 120K Americans died in under 4 months. Why people are minimizing the impact is impossible to understand. 

 
Really unwise by the business and the patrons. Especially the business, really irresponsible.

The virus is extremely contagious and the positive %, hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise in many places. People get extremely sick from this. 120K Americans died in under 4 months. Why people are minimizing the impact is impossible to understand. 
I think, in large part, for a few reasons:

1) If you are not near a hotspot, you may not know anyone who has passed, or even been hospitalized
2) If you are, say 30 or under, you may feel invincible

 
I'm surprised the numbers have been as low as they are given what I'm seeing.  It's almost like this virus is a lot less contagious than it start.
I've been thinking for a while there are some significant missing pieces in the "How does COVID-19 spread?" puzzle.

The fast-declining status of fomite transmission seems to have long ago achieved consensus. Given that, it seemed like the former Number 1 vector -- "large droplet" spread -- wasn't considered to be enough all by itself to spread COVID-19 very easily. Then "small droplet/aerosol/shallow-breath" spread got traction (after being largely ignored for a long time) and now seems to be the leader in the clubhouse.

Given all the information -- pro, con, and neutral -- about those transmission methods, the question I have is this:

The various regional COVID-19 transmission patterns we see currently ... are they all readily explainable by the current consensus "model" of COVID-19 trasmission? Or are there still a lot of cases (regionally) of "How did it spread like this?" ... or also "How DIDN'T it spread more than it has?"

Example: Masks or no masks ... are there any examples of all of even a mini-outbreak linked to any grocery or retail establishment in the U.S.? Yes, I know of cases where a given store had a few employees test positive and that place would shut down for a few weeks. I guess I'm more interested in hypothetical cases where they know that a few dozen (or a few hundred people) caught COVID-19 over the course of a week shopping in a given grocery store. And that they can isolate the cases to a single store over a definite time frame.

 
I've been thinking for a while there are some significant missing pieces in the "How does COVID-19 spread?" puzzle.

The fast-declining status of fomite transmission seems to have long ago achieved consensus. Given that, it seemed like the former Number 1 vector -- "large droplet" spread -- wasn't considered to be enough all by itself to spread COVID-19 very easily. Then "small droplet/aerosol/shallow-breath" spread got traction (after being largely ignored for a long time) and now seems to be the leader in the clubhouse.

Given all the information -- pro, con, and neutral -- about those transmission methods, the question I have is this:

The various regional COVID-19 transmission patterns we see currently ... are they all readily explainable by the current consensus "model" of COVID-19 trasmission? Or are there still a lot of cases (regionally) of "How did it spread like this?" ... or also "How DIDN'T it spread more than it has?"

Example: Masks or no masks ... are there any examples of all of even a mini-outbreak linked to any grocery or retail establishment in the U.S.? Yes, I know of cases where a given store had a few employees test positive and that place would shut down for a few weeks. I guess I'm more interested in hypothetical cases where they know that a few dozen (or a few hundred people) caught COVID-19 over the course of a week shopping in a given grocery store. And that they can isolate the cases to a single store over a definite time frame.
I know UTSW is doing some level of study with the grocers and stockers at a local major chain.   They have had a hard time running the study because none of them are getting sick, let alone even testing positive. 

 
jamny said:
Everyone knows there will be an increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths once things started opening up. I think it needs to be defined what is an uptick and what is a spike. One is acceptable, the other is not.
Why?

Haven't several other countries opened back up without an increase in cases?  Mostly mask wearing countries, FWIW.

 
I bet not a single person in that crowd would die from COVID, or even become hospitalized.  It will be their grandparents, or someone else they come in contact with later.
In addition to continuing deaths of the old and at risk individuals there are undesirable outcomes - other than death - that will have significant downstream healthcare costs.  Yes, we know a lot more about COVID19 than we did months ago and that helps people do the right things, but the underlying virus remains the same.  Too many people are acting as if...as if their rationalized choices are okay and we're good to go.  The behavior of these individuals will eventually hurt us all with more and more cases, deaths, and a prolongment of the pain this thing has already spread.  The "but I'm not going to die" attitude but some is pathetically short-sighted and shows a real lack of critical thinking skills or empathy for others.

 
This simply isn't true.  While I agree that wearing a mask in public is the right thing to do right now the folks that don't are not selfish.  
How do you figure they aren't selfish? I can only put them in one of two buckets - selfish or misinformed.

 
This simply isn't true.  While I agree that wearing a mask in public is the right thing to do right now the folks that don't are not selfish.  
Disagree. You don't wear the mask in public indoor spaces for yourself. You wear it for other people.

Wearing face coverings doesn't protect the wearer 100%. It protects others from the wearer's breath.

The person that can't abide wearing a face covering ... his/her breath -- not coughs or sneezes, but breath -- puts other people at risk. That goes triple for those that won't wear masks AND think "social distancing is "stupid" and they ain't doing THAT either!"

The person that says "They don't protect me from catching COVID-19, so what's the point of wearing a face covering?" is missing the point by miles. You do it for others -- not for you.

If you can't wear a face covering in public indoor spaces for other people ... IMHO that's by definition selfish. You're failing (perhaps willfully?) to account for how your actions affect other people.

 
Disagree. You don't wear the mask in public indoor spaces for yourself. You wear it for other people.

Wearing face coverings doesn't protect the wearer 100%. It protects others from the wearer's breath.

The person that can't abide wearing a face covering ... his/her breath -- not coughs or sneezes, but breath -- puts other people at risk. That goes triple for those that won't wear masks AND think "social distancing is "stupid" and they ain't doing THAT either!"

The person that says "They don't protect me from catching COVID-19, so what's the point of wearing a face covering?" is missing the point by miles. You do it for others -- not for you.

If you can't wear a face covering in public indoor spaces for other people ... IMHO that's by definition selfish. You're failing (perhaps willfully?) to account for how your actions affect other people.
People who demand people wear masks are selfish.  It is up to you to avoid situations that could put you in risk.

 
Doug B said:
I've been thinking for a while there are some significant missing pieces in the "How does COVID-19 spread?" puzzle.

The fast-declining status of fomite transmission seems to have long ago achieved consensus. Given that, it seemed like the former Number 1 vector -- "large droplet" spread -- wasn't considered to be enough all by itself to spread COVID-19 very easily. Then "small droplet/aerosol/shallow-breath" spread got traction (after being largely ignored for a long time) and now seems to be the leader in the clubhouse.

Given all the information -- pro, con, and neutral -- about those transmission methods, the question I have is this:

The various regional COVID-19 transmission patterns we see currently ... are they all readily explainable by the current consensus "model" of COVID-19 trasmission? Or are there still a lot of cases (regionally) of "How did it spread like this?" ... or also "How DIDN'T it spread more than it has?"

Example: Masks or no masks ... are there any examples of all of even a mini-outbreak linked to any grocery or retail establishment in the U.S.? Yes, I know of cases where a given store had a few employees test positive and that place would shut down for a few weeks. I guess I'm more interested in hypothetical cases where they know that a few dozen (or a few hundred people) caught COVID-19 over the course of a week shopping in a given grocery store. And that they can isolate the cases to a single store over a definite time frame.
I’d have to go digging around to find it again but at the beginning of May-ish I read an article and study on super-spreaders that had multiple cases like the one you asking about. One that I remember clearly was of a guy who ate at a restaurant and 12/13 people contracted it.  They were able to determine it was due to where he sat and the direction of the AC blowing. The people “downwind” were all the ones who got it. 

 
People who demand people wear masks are selfish.  It is up to you to avoid situations that could put you in risk.
It's unreasonable to expect that many people to just drop out of public life. Won't ever budge and see it your way, sorry.

And you didn't say or imply this ... but in some similar stances from others, there's this perception that it's like 1 in 100 Americans that really needs to be careful and "avoid risk". For one -- it's more like 1 in 3 Americans at best, and for two -- it's wrong for one cohort to impinge upon the freedom-of-movement of another cohort based on disease risk.

 
I’d have to go digging around to find it again but at the beginning of May-ish I read an article and study on super-spreaders that had multiple cases like the one you asking about. One that I remember clearly was of a guy who ate at a restaurant and 12/13 people contracted it.  They were able to determine it was due to where he sat and the direction of the AC blowing. The people “downwind” were all the ones who got it. 
I saw that -- but why is it that one "famous" example repeated over and over again? Why aren't there 100 stories of similar spreading events?

 
It's unreasonable to expect that many people to just drop out of public life. Won't ever budge and see it your way, sorry.

And you didn't say or imply this ... but in some similar stances from others, there's this perception that it's like 1 in 100 Americans that really needs to be careful and "avoid risk". For one -- it's more like 1 in 3 Americans at best, and for two -- it's wrong for one cohort to impinge upon the freedom-of-movement of another cohort based on disease risk.
It sounds like you agree with me then that impinging the freedom of someone by requiring a mask is wrong.

 
I saw that -- but why is it that one "famous" example repeated over and over again? Why aren't there 100 stories of similar spreading events?
Good question, didn’t know it was “famous”, I’ve not heard it anywhere other then the article I read a while back.  Maybe it’s because the contact tracing studies are complex and still ongoing?  Not sure but it is a good question you pose. 

 
It seems to be a solid hypothesis that masks work. If 90% of the people wore masks 90% of the time when out of the house, it appears that would drop the rate of transmission below 1 everywhere. I say hypothesis because I don't have the proof, but I believe there's enough information out there to confirm this hypothesis as true. If it is true, it should be an all out blitz to promote this, because way too many people aren't getting the message. 

It's been a typical refrain in this country to not want to do what works with this virus. SIP, social distancing, masks, testing, it's the same pushback.

Knowledge: "Wearing masks is the most effective way to reduce the spread of the virus. Everyone should proudly mask up and we can save the country and the economy."

U.S. "Yeah we're not doing that."
Pretty much this in a nutshell. Sad commentary.

 
It sounds like you agree with me then that impinging the freedom of someone by requiring a mask is wrong.
For clarity sake I hate the idea of it being required, people should just be responsible when they have others lives in their hands, but how do you feel about seatbelts, helmet requirements, speed limits, gun permits, required car insurance, etc etc?

 
TheWinz said:
I'm all for 100% mask usage indoors, and luckily I live in a state that still adheres to the rules without much pushback.  The problem I see is, without a vaccine, do we keep this rule in effect forever?  Because that's the path some Governors are going to try to take.
There's a lot of mixed messaging going on out there, and everyone has a lot of fancy certificate acronyms after their names.  If you have a stance, there's going to be a medical / data / statistical expert that backs your play.  Heck, there's at least 3 different social distancing guidelines between the US, WHO, and Europe alone.

Wearing a mask indoors sucks.  It's bothersome, it makes it harder to breathe, and it denies each and every one of us the societal niceties of daily life (seeing someone smile, for example).  Indoors, I'm willing to take one for the team.  I get the logic and I'm on board.  If everyone wearing masks is so effective though, then why can't they fill up Wrigley if the spectators are all masked up?

When there's a vaccine (and believe me, there will be with all the $$$$$$ involved) my mask wearing days are over.  Well, until Covid 20 shows up and my stooge of a governor in IL mandates masks again.  I'm surprised he hasn't mandated wearing helmets while driving in cars.

Wearing masks outdoors is ridiculous and ignorant of even basic science.  

In my experience thus far I've seen 100% compliance with masks in grocery stores.  Social distancing in the aisles has been hit or miss, but has been 100% when it comes to the checkout line.  I can't speak for IL as a whole, but out in our neck of the woods everyone does their part.  IL isn't big on pushback.  If masks are mandated, people will wear them.

 
"wear a mask" is as "selfish" as "requiring people to wear clothes in public".  I didn't realize we has so many closet nudists in this country :lol:  

 
He's also completely right
We could increase mask wearing significantly - if there was a story on CNN that non-mask wearing is a plot by the KKK to intentionally get people sick in an effort to get rid of Biden voters in the upcoming election and that non-mask wearing is symbolic of support for the KKK movement.

 
We could increase mask wearing significantly - if there was a story on CNN that non-mask wearing is a plot by the KKK to intentionally get people sick in an effort to get rid of Biden voters in the upcoming election and that non-mask wearing is symbolic of support for the KKK movement.
Yeah, except most of the snowflakes are the people already wearing them.

 
We could increase mask wearing significantly - if there was a story on CNN that non-mask wearing is a plot by the KKK to intentionally get people sick in an effort to get rid of Biden voters in the upcoming election and that non-mask wearing is symbolic of support for the KKK movement.
Maybe it varies by locale but around here, all the CNN-watching Biden supporters are already wearing masks.  You'd need something like this airing on Fox News, 99.9999% of the "I'm not wearing a mask" crowd are the Trump supporters.  

 
The virus doesn't care if people like wearing masks or not. Or anything else about what a person "likes". But it is highly contagious, brings on a bad sickness, sometimes requiring hospitalization, which happens among all age groups. Sometimes people die, yes the skew is to older 65+, but not exclusively.

In four months we've been able to determine that masks reduce the transmission, even though messages were conflicting at first. Outdoors is better than indoors. Staying at least 6 feet apart is good, along with hand-washing/not touching your face. Basically don't breathe on someone or get breathed on by someone.

That shouldn't be "controversial". Does it stink? Sure, of course it does. Is that the pushback, agreeing/admitting that these things are highly annoying, particularly masks? It absolutely is. But, let's do the business of reducing viral transmission while we get everyone back to work and get on with life responsibly despite that.

A lot is at risk on a macro scale, lives and livelihoods. Things can't afford to close back down again because we didn't understand the basics of viral transmission and didn't do what we could to reduce it.

 
Doug B said:
I've been thinking for a while there are some significant missing pieces in the "How does COVID-19 spread?" puzzle.

The fast-declining status of fomite transmission seems to have long ago achieved consensus. Given that, it seemed like the former Number 1 vector -- "large droplet" spread -- wasn't considered to be enough all by itself to spread COVID-19 very easily. Then "small droplet/aerosol/shallow-breath" spread got traction (after being largely ignored for a long time) and now seems to be the leader in the clubhouse.

Given all the information -- pro, con, and neutral -- about those transmission methods, the question I have is this:

The various regional COVID-19 transmission patterns we see currently ... are they all readily explainable by the current consensus "model" of COVID-19 trasmission? Or are there still a lot of cases (regionally) of "How did it spread like this?" ... or also "How DIDN'T it spread more than it has?"

Example: Masks or no masks ... are there any examples of all of even a mini-outbreak linked to any grocery or retail establishment in the U.S.? Yes, I know of cases where a given store had a few employees test positive and that place would shut down for a few weeks. I guess I'm more interested in hypothetical cases where they know that a few dozen (or a few hundred people) caught COVID-19 over the course of a week shopping in a given grocery store. And that they can isolate the cases to a single store over a definite time frame.
Tracing an outbreak to a grocery store or big box store would be incredibly hard outside an outbreak of employee cases. If you take a two week period, chances are most people will have gone to multiple of these type of stores. You might be able to find common places that multiple positives testing people visited but hard to confirm it’s more than a coincidence. On the flip side, a restaurant or bar would be much easier to trace back to.

Right now, I don’t trust a lot of what’s coming out because we simply don’t know how it’s spreading. I’m gonna still immediately shower and isolate my clothes after working a shift at the grocery store. I’m gonna keep wiping down groceries. Probably overkill but they’re simple enough that I’m ok with doing something stupid if it may help protect my family.

 
It seems to be a solid hypothesis that masks work. If 90% of the people wore masks 90% of the time when out of the house, it appears that would drop the rate of transmission below 1 everywhere. I say hypothesis because I don't have the proof, but I believe there's enough information out there to confirm this hypothesis as true. If it is true, it should be an all out blitz to promote this, because way too many people aren't getting the message. 

It's been a typical refrain in this country to not want to do what works with this virus. SIP, social distancing, masks, testing, it's the same pushback.

Knowledge: "Wearing masks is the most effective way to reduce the spread of the virus. Everyone should proudly mask up and we can save the country and the economy."

U.S. "Yeah we're not doing that."
Pretty much this in a nutshell. Sad commentary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fG_Ts40eiI&feature=youtu.be&t=5

 
Maybe it varies by locale but around here, all the CNN-watching Biden supporters are already wearing masks.  You'd need something like this airing on Fox News, 99.9999% of the "I'm not wearing a mask" crowd are the Trump supporters.  
It's not a right/left thing, it's more of a blue collar / white collar thing.

Blue collars have more of a "I'm tougher than the virus, bring it on" attitude.  I know a LOT of blue collar Democrats.

To be clear NOT ALL blue collar types think this way.  It is reflective of my experiences only.

 
It's not a right/left thing, it's more of a blue collar / white collar thing.

Blue collars have more of a "I'm tougher than the virus, bring it on" attitude.  I know a LOT of blue collar Democrats.

To be clear NOT ALL blue collar types think this way.  It is reflective of my experiences only.
Have to agree with this but better to discuss in the other thread.

 

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