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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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3 minutes ago, Rohn Jambo said:

When do you think we can answer this question?  What does it take?

More antibody testing is needed to get the true mortality rate.

For the moment, if you go get a positive test, there’s a 5% mortality rate in the USA.

Yeah its much lower when you include people who didn’t know they were sick. But until we get better antibody testing (and we are close, there are some solid studies so far)  we won’t know how many that is. 

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Just now, shader said:

More antibody testing is needed to get the true mortality rate.

For the moment, if you go get a positive test, there’s a 5% mortality rate in the USA.

Yeah its much lower when you include people who didn’t know they were sick. But until we get better antibody testing (and we are close, there are some solid studies so far)  we won’t know how many that is. 

What about the numbers from the Diamond Princess?  Are they useful at all?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Rohn Jambo said:

What about the numbers from the Diamond Princess?  Are they useful at all?

Sure. 712 cases, 13 deaths. 1.8% mortality rate. Probably a bit higher than what many expect (1%) because the average age skewed a bit older.  
 

But it’s a great example of a closed system of people that were tested and have completed the course of the virus.

Edited by shader

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53 minutes ago, Rohn Jambo said:

Have we settled question #1 or is the jury still out?

Is CV worse than the flu?
 

I live in Rockland County NY, not the epicenter like NYC, but from my experience it's been bad. We keep losing people. One of my dad's best friends, my high school history teacher, my wife's gym buddy, my daughter's friend's mom, the organ player at our church, multiple firefighters (I work with government entities in the Rockland/Westchester/Bergen/Passaic area). I was speaking to someone I work with in Paterson NJ and she said she'd lost two members of her family, two members of her husband's family, and almost twenty members of her church in the last month. All this is anecdotal, but it feels like we're getting hit with a wrecking ball. I mean no one I know personally has ever died from the flu. This feels way way different and I struggle with people outside the hard hit areas who are mocking precautions we are supposed to be taking.

I still have to go out for work, and twice a week I delivery groceries to the elderly. I'm not overly concerned for myself, but my youngest daughter has respiratory issues and I'm terrified for her. When I get home I go in through the garage and shed all my clothes, wash myself down and change before I go inside, and then it's right to the shower. Even then I'm nervous. She won't be going back to school any time soon. 

My neighbor is a cop in the Bronx and he tells me every day they are responding to calls from people noticing a rotten stench from a neighboring apartment. His belief is the number of dead in NYC is far higher than is being reported, though again, it's all anecdotal. 

Worse than the flu? I guess it depends on your age and health, but I feel like my community has had their butt handed to them the last couple of months. It's awful. 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Rohn Jambo said:

When do you think we can answer this question?  What does it take?

Already answered, 3 or 4 months ago.  Only a handful of people who really don't want to believe this is bad for their own private reasons are even questioning it at this point.

ETA:  unless you're in favor of people getting sick and dying.  In which case, no.  Definitely not worse than the flu.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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3 minutes ago, shader said:

Sure. 712 cases, 13 deaths. 1.8% mortality rate. Probably a bit higher than what many expect (1%) because the average age skewed a bit older.  

But it’s a great example of a closed system of people that were tested and have completed the course of the virus.

Mortality Rate Is more complicated than the Case Fatality Rate (as estimated by the CDC) — difference explained by Encyclopedia Britannica.  Both can vary depending on many factors.  However, I had thought there would be some standards on how to determine CFR using a reasonable sample set without testing millions and millions of people.

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10 minutes ago, foxco said:

I live in Rockland County NY, not the epicenter like NYC, but from my experience it's been bad. We keep losing people. One of my dad's best friends, my high school history teacher, my wife's gym buddy, my daughter's friend's mom, the organ player at our church, multiple firefighters (I work with government entities in the Rockland/Westchester/Bergen/Passaic area). I was speaking to someone I work with in Paterson NJ and she said she'd lost two members of her family, two members of her husband's family, and almost twenty members of her church in the last month. All this is anecdotal, but it feels like we're getting hit with a wrecking ball. I mean no one I know personally has ever died from the flu. This feels way way different and I struggle with people outside the hard hit areas who are mocking precautions we are supposed to be taking.

I still have to go out for work, and twice a week I delivery groceries to the elderly. I'm not overly concerned for myself, but my youngest daughter has respiratory issues and I'm terrified for her. When I get home I go in through the garage and shed all my clothes, wash myself down and change before I go inside, and then it's right to the shower. Even then I'm nervous. She won't be going back to school any time soon. 

My neighbor is a cop in the Bronx and he tells me every day they are responding to calls from people noticing a rotten stench from a neighboring apartment. His belief is the number of dead in NYC is far higher than is being reported, though again, it's all anecdotal. 

Worse than the flu? I guess it depends on your age and health, but I feel like my community has had their butt handed to them the last couple of months. It's awful. 

Foxco, I don’t ever recall chatting with you on this board, but I’m really sorry for your losses.

For people that live in unaffected areas, it can be difficult to process “what this is”, especially when so many influential people downplay it.  Even the 100k deaths, it can seem like video game numbers, especially when we have all been stuck at home.

Your post is an excellent reminder of how bad this is if it really gets into an area and takes over.  Again, I’m so sorry for what your area is going through, and what you’re going through. 

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1 minute ago, Rohn Jambo said:

Mortality Rate Is more complicated than the Case Fatality Rate (as estimated by the CDC) — difference explained by Encyclopedia Britannica.  Both can vary depending on many factors.  However, I had thought there would be some standards on how to determine CFR using a reasonable sample set without testing millions and millions of people.

I haven’t really gotten into this discussion in a few weeks, and if there have been new studies, I haven’t seen them.  But as of a few weeks ago, 1% was my best guess based on what we’d seen.

NYC has already seen .2% of their entire population die, so we know it’s likely a good bit higher than that.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, foxco said:

I live in Rockland County NY, not the epicenter like NYC, but from my experience it's been bad. We keep losing people. One of my dad's best friends, my high school history teacher, my wife's gym buddy, my daughter's friend's mom, the organ player at our church, multiple firefighters (I work with government entities in the Rockland/Westchester/Bergen/Passaic area). I was speaking to someone I work with in Paterson NJ and she said she'd lost two members of her family, two members of her husband's family, and almost twenty members of her church in the last month. All this is anecdotal, but it feels like we're getting hit with a wrecking ball. I mean no one I know personally has ever died from the flu. This feels way way different and I struggle with people outside the hard hit areas who are mocking precautions we are supposed to be taking.

I still have to go out for work, and twice a week I delivery groceries to the elderly. I'm not overly concerned for myself, but my youngest daughter has respiratory issues and I'm terrified for her. When I get home I go in through the garage and shed all my clothes, wash myself down and change before I go inside, and then it's right to the shower. Even then I'm nervous. She won't be going back to school any time soon. 

My neighbor is a cop in the Bronx and he tells me every day they are responding to calls from people noticing a rotten stench from a neighboring apartment. His belief is the number of dead in NYC is far higher than is being reported, though again, it's all anecdotal. 

Worse than the flu? I guess it depends on your age and health, but I feel like my community has had their butt handed to them the last couple of months. It's awful. 

Foxco, so sorry to hear how your community has been affected by CV.  I hope things will make a turn for the better.

Edited by Rohn Jambo
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8 hours ago, Sand said:

Not only was it not effective for those on ventilators, but not effective for those not on oxygen.  Only really effective for those on supplemental oxygen.  That's a pretty narrow result and not the palliative that was hoped for.  Given the press it's an incredibly underwhelming result.  The fact that the study was dropped into the public the way it was shows that very clearly.

This drug seems to be propped up by the advertising arm of pharma along with a strong desire from those in power to show some progress.    

The bulk of patients hospitalized with COVID 19 require oxygen, but not mechanical ventilation. If the drug can shorten duration of symptoms and prevent some hypoxic patients from progressing (not clear from the study, but plausible), freeing up hospital beds in the process, I’ll take it.

Realize there are not one, but two medications frequently prescribed for flu that only shorten symptoms by a day. And that’s only if they’re given in the first couple days of symptoms. The antiviral bar for efficacy is quite low.

It will be interesting to see how investors interpret the findings when the markets reopen.

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For someone taking a flight, where is the best place to order a comfortable and reliable mask? 

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34 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

For someone taking a flight, where is the best place to order a comfortable and reliable mask? 

If I was flying I wouldn't use anything but a N95 type. Even with that, I am unsure I would fly at this time (and yes, I know some people have no choice but to fly).

I think you can still find some of those for sale. If not, I would glady mail one to you assuming you aren't flying in the next 5 days or so

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, fantasycurse42 said:

For someone taking a flight, where is the best place to order a comfortable and reliable mask? 

I also want to know more about masks.  My company’s back-to-work plan requires employees to get their own masks.  I have been covering my face with bandanas for the limited number of times I had to leave my home during the lockdown.  I figured it would not be too professional to look like I’m about to rob a bank.

Edited by Rohn Jambo

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1 hour ago, shader said:

I haven’t really gotten into this discussion in a few weeks, and if there have been new studies, I haven’t seen them.  But as of a few weeks ago, 1% was my best guess based on what we’d seen.

NYC has already seen .2% of their entire population die, so we know it’s likely a good bit higher than that.

I guess the real question is would people behave differently if it is .2% vs. 1%

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1 hour ago, foxco said:

I live in Rockland County NY, not the epicenter like NYC, but from my experience it's been bad. We keep losing people. One of my dad's best friends, my high school history teacher, my wife's gym buddy, my daughter's friend's mom, the organ player at our church, multiple firefighters (I work with government entities in the Rockland/Westchester/Bergen/Passaic area). I was speaking to someone I work with in Paterson NJ and she said she'd lost two members of her family, two members of her husband's family, and almost twenty members of her church in the last month. All this is anecdotal, but it feels like we're getting hit with a wrecking ball. I mean no one I know personally has ever died from the flu. This feels way way different and I struggle with people outside the hard hit areas who are mocking precautions we are supposed to be taking.

I still have to go out for work, and twice a week I delivery groceries to the elderly. I'm not overly concerned for myself, but my youngest daughter has respiratory issues and I'm terrified for her. When I get home I go in through the garage and shed all my clothes, wash myself down and change before I go inside, and then it's right to the shower. Even then I'm nervous. She won't be going back to school any time soon. 

My neighbor is a cop in the Bronx and he tells me every day they are responding to calls from people noticing a rotten stench from a neighboring apartment. His belief is the number of dead in NYC is far higher than is being reported, though again, it's all anecdotal. 

Worse than the flu? I guess it depends on your age and health, but I feel like my community has had their butt handed to them the last couple of months. It's awful. 

Sorry fox.  That really sucks.

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2 hours ago, [scooter] said:

Where are you getting your numbers? According to this report, Connecticut has had 2190 confirmed and probable coronavirus deaths in nursing homes, out of 7875 cases (27.8%).

Meanwhile, this report shows 4287 coronavirus cases in nursing homes in Florida, and this link shows a death total of 1043 (24.3%).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/connecticut-coronavirus-cases.html

 

Ny times that’s updates info almost daily.  Total death is 3675/with 2190 in nursing homes.  

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2 hours ago, [scooter] said:

Where are you getting your numbers? According to this report, Connecticut has had 2190 confirmed and probable coronavirus deaths in nursing homes, out of 7875 cases (27.8%).

Meanwhile, this report shows 4287 coronavirus cases in nursing homes in Florida, and this link shows a death total of 1043 (24.3%).

It’s based on total nursing home population vs total deaths.  

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Anderson .Paak - I've been looking forward to hearing this since someone took it, but only because he's extremely attractive.  I guess there is music or something too.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, the moops said:

If I was flying I wouldn't use anything but a N95 type. Even with that, I am unsure I would fly at this time (and yes, I know some people have no choice but to fly).

I think you can still find some of those for sale. If not, I would glady mail one to you assuming you aren't flying in the next 5 days or so

My mother is flying to me in a few weeks... She’s been asking to do so and will stay in FL for a while. Honestly, she is 67, but healthy as an ox. She doesn’t have a parent or grandparent that didn’t go to 85 at the youngest. I’d be more concerned she catches it, gives it to me, and I drop.

I’m taking a trip back to NYC in a cargo van, grabbing our stuff with my wife, and coming back to FL. Mom and aunt (who lives in FL) are staying at our house and watching the kids. Between the two of them, they insisted my mom flies down.

I’d like to buy my mom the most comfortable N95 mask.

This is going to be a lot of fun!

 

Edited by fantasycurse42

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6 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

My mother is flying to me in a few weeks... She’s been asking to do so and will stay in FL for a while. Honestly, she 67, but healthy as an ox. She doesn’t have a parent or grandparent that didn’t go to 85 at the youngest. I’d be more concerned she catches it, gives it to me, and I drop.

I’m taking a trip back to NYC in a cargo van, grabbing our stuff with my wife, and coming back to FL. Mom and aunt (who lives in FL) are staying at our house and watching the kids. Between the two of them, they insisted my mom flies down.

I’d like to buy my mom the most comfortable N95 mask.

This is going to be a lot of fun!

 

Permanent move to Florida? If so, welcome. Your skoal, frozen bag of tater tots and a DVD of college football’s greatest games will be delivered to you shortly. 

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25 minutes ago, Capella said:

Permanent move to Florida? If so, welcome. Your skoal, frozen bag of tater tots and a DVD of college football’s greatest games will be delivered to you shortly. 

Watching a rerun of LSU/UK as I type this :excited:

Got a house in Palm Beach County for the rest of the year, by then I should know if I’m employed, safe, and can work from home forever. There’s prob never been a human as excited as me to leave Disney. We’re also interested in the Melbourne / Indiatlantic area... If we stay, we’ll prob buy something in one of those two areas EOY or early next year.

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52 minutes ago, stlrams said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/connecticut-coronavirus-cases.html

 

Ny times that’s updates info almost daily.  Total death is 3675/with 2190 in nursing homes.  

So he's using total nursing home cases statewide vs. nursing home deaths where as you are using total deaths statewide vs. nursing home deaths.

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1 hour ago, stlrams said:
3 hours ago, [scooter] said:

Where are you getting your numbers? According to this report, Connecticut has had 2190 confirmed and probable coronavirus deaths in nursing homes, out of 7875 cases (27.8%).

Meanwhile, this report shows 4287 coronavirus cases in nursing homes in Florida, and this link shows a death total of 1043 (24.3%).

It’s based on total nursing home population vs total deaths.  

OK.

In that case, the answer to your question is probably along the lines of: the reason why CT has a higher rate of deaths-per-population (among those in nursing homes) is because CT has a higher population density.

It's the same reason why CT also has a higher "death rate" among those who don't live in nursing homes.

CT: 1503 non-nursing-home deaths (out of 3,542,634 people) = 1 in 2357 dead

FL: 1194 non-nursing-home deaths (out of 21,404,996 people) = 1 in 17927 dead

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I just found out my 83 yr old mother has tested positive.  She fell a few weeks ago and twisted up her knee and broke her hand.  She spent a few days in the hospital and then needed to go to a rehab facility.  They tested her before she could be admitted to the rehab place and was negative.   She spent almost 2 weeks at the rehab facility.  She has been home about 6 days and has been suffering from dizzy spells.  Went for blood work a couple days ago and her counts are all low (have been for the past few tests).  Made an appointment with hematologist for next week,  but today, in addition to the dizziness, she was complaining of stomach pain and nausea.  My sister took her to the ER.  In addition to suspecting an internal bleed somewhere, she has now tested positive for COVID.  Meanwhile, my father (coming up on his 89th b-day) is in a memory care unit of a home where there have now been two staffers and one resident at the facility who have tested positive.  None of them were directly in the memory care unit, but...   This sucks.  It feels like I am just waiting for the inevitable.

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3 hours ago, Rohn Jambo said:

I guess the real question is would people behave differently if it is .2% vs. 1%

They shouldn’t, as the real concern is C-19 leads to hospitalization in 15-20% of symptomatic infection. And people remain in the hospital several days-week+.

Both those numbers are way worse than flu, and lead to healthcare systems becoming quickly overwhelmed. 

Even if the CFR was 0, this would be an international healthcare crisis.

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46 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

OK.

In that case, the answer to your question is probably along the lines of: the reason why CT has a higher rate of deaths-per-population (among those in nursing homes) is because CT has a higher population density.

It's the same reason why CT also has a higher "death rate" among those who don't live in nursing homes.

CT: 1503 non-nursing-home deaths (out of 3,542,634 people) = 1 in 2357 dead

FL: 1194 non-nursing-home deaths (out of 21,404,996 people) = 1 in 17927 dead

This.  According to worldometer, CT is 3rd in the nation with 1036 deaths per million.  By comparison, FL sits at 104 deaths per million.  It stands to reason CT's nursing home deaths would be 10x that of FL's.  I would expect FL's nursing home death rate to be similar to CA, as their overall death rates are very close.  And I would expect NY's rate to be about 1.5x that of CT.

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On 5/23/2020 at 9:00 PM, tri-man 47 said:

Talked about already, but of Covid  worldometers report,  just shy of 100K new cases today, half are from the US, Brazil, and Russia.

Yesterday Brazil surpassed the US as the country with most new CV deaths in a day (703 vs. 617)

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20 minutes ago, Rohn Jambo said:

Yesterday Brazil surpassed the US as the country with most new CV deaths in a day (703 vs. 617)

And given the ability to make an accurate count I'd bet Brazil's real number is way, way higher.

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10 hours ago, [scooter] said:

OK.

In that case, the answer to your question is probably along the lines of: the reason why CT has a higher rate of deaths-per-population (among those in nursing homes) is because CT has a higher population density.

It's the same reason why CT also has a higher "death rate" among those who don't live in nursing homes.

CT: 1503 non-nursing-home deaths (out of 3,542,634 people) = 1 in 2357 dead

FL: 1194 non-nursing-home deaths (out of 21,404,996 people) = 1 in 17927 dead

Don’t agree that population density is the sole reason when we are talking about a closed environment I.e. nursing homes.  Especially when ct population density 84% higher then Florida yet nursing home deaths 10x. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183588/population-density-in-the-federal-states-of-the-us/

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14 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Thought this was a great series of snapshots on where we are re: the continued "shutdown".  Bottom line is that many people are still observing them.  Probably enough to provide some protection from the free riders (esp if the improving weather is also helping).

Great for keeping the spread down, bad for the economy. I fully expect economic damage to end up being the main story of the rest of this saga.

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16 hours ago, Rohn Jambo said:

Coronavirus challenges our perseverance but we are conditioned to have a short attention span.  A few weeks into the lockdown and all our brains can think about is, “are we there yet?”

Yep.

Mask usage around here is inconsistent. Sometimes I go to the store and it looks like its 90% plus. Others it looks like less than half.

Those that don't or won't wear masks have me flummoxed. Just don't know where they're coming from.

It doesn't help that various retail establishments give mixed messages. Our local CVS drugstores and Wal-Mart Fresh Markets both have signage about mask usage (for customers) being required by law. No other place has this signage, and I am pretty sure that while masks for shoppers is highly encouraged, there is no law on the books requiring them around here ... and indeed, no stores are even making an attempt at enforcement (not saying they should, just that they aren't).

I have been curious to see what would happen if masks really were "hard" required by law, and retail establishments started having a pair of cops, MPs, etc. stationed at the doors.

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20 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

Anybody noticed this language on the CDC site before? 

At this time, we do not think that people with high blood pressure and no other underlying health conditions are more likely than others to get severely ill from COVID-19

Will look for it, but meanwhile do you have a link for this?

Kind of makes intuitive sense ... for the HBP most everyone over 40 walks around with , it's hardly a foot-in-the-grace condition.

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16 hours ago, Rohn Jambo said:

Thank you for the nice lead in to question #2.

What is the mortality rate of CV?

You were asking for firm answers that won't be forthcoming for at best 2-3 years down the road. That doesn't mean that nothing's been learned in four months -- just that new information can still influence (not to say overturn) conventional wisdom a bit.

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Posted (edited)

Really great article on high risk locations/activities.

Some incredible detective work involved in these examples.  The graphs take a bit of time to figure out, but they're worth it.

Bottom line IMO:  high-contact indoor spaces are high risk, especially if prolonged or particularly close. (Yeah, not rocket science.  But should be given more weight than they are in terms of what's allowed to open up.)

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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4 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

.

Bottom line IMO:  high-contact indoor spaces are high risk, especially if prolonged or particularly close. (Yeah, not rocket science.  But should be given more weight than they are in terms of what's allowed to open up.)

:kicksrock:

Not encouraging for some (me) who work in a children's museum. I would need to work some crazy magic to design and fabricate exhibits that require low-contact and distancing

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12 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Watching a rerun of LSU/UK as I type this :excited:

Got a house in Palm Beach County for the rest of the year, by then I should know if I’m employed, safe, and can work from home forever. There’s prob never been a human as excited as me to leave Disney. We’re also interested in the Melbourne / Indiatlantic area... If we stay, we’ll prob buy something in one of those two areas EOY or early next year.

My MIL is a realtor in that area if you want assistance.  She typically works out by the lake and in the Wellington area.  If she doesn't know the area you are looking specifically, she knows someone who does.

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1 hour ago, stlrams said:
11 hours ago, [scooter] said:

OK.

In that case, the answer to your question is probably along the lines of: the reason why CT has a higher rate of deaths-per-population (among those in nursing homes) is because CT has a higher population density.

It's the same reason why CT also has a higher "death rate" among those who don't live in nursing homes.

CT: 1503 non-nursing-home deaths (out of 3,542,634 people) = 1 in 2357 dead

FL: 1194 non-nursing-home deaths (out of 21,404,996 people) = 1 in 17927 dead

Don’t agree that population density is the sole reason when we are talking about a closed environment I.e. nursing homes.  Especially when ct population density 84% higher then Florida yet nursing home deaths 10x. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183588/population-density-in-the-federal-states-of-the-us/

If your theory had legs, then CT's non-nursing-home death rate would be much lower.

NURSING HOME DEATHS:

FL: 1043 out of 72741 (1.4%)

CT: 2190 out of 22653 (9.7%) <-- BTW, this is 6.7x Florida, not 10x as you've been claiming

NON-NURSING HOME DEATHS:

FL: 1194 out of 21,404,996 (.0056%)

CT: 1503 out of 3,542,634 (.042%) <-- 7.6x Florida

Therefore, these numbers would indicate that CT has actually done a better job of protecting its nursing home residents when compared to the rest of the population.

Population density is your answer.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, [scooter] said:

If your theory had legs, then CT's non-nursing-home death rate would be much lower.

NURSING HOME DEATHS:

FL: 1043 out of 72741 (1.4%)

CT: 2190 out of 22653 (9.7%) <-- BTW, this is 6.7x Florida, not 10x as you've been claiming

NON-NURSING HOME DEATHS:

FL: 1194 out of 21,404,996 (.0056%)

CT: 1503 out of 3,542,634 (.042%) <-- 7.6x Florida

Therefore, these numbers would indicate that CT has actually done a better job of protecting its nursing home residents when compared to the rest of the population.

Population density is your answer.

Just a wild guess on my part.

3.  A little more compliance in FL

2.  Higher population density in CT

1.  FL moved infected patients from nursing homes into hospitals, while CT kept them on site in nursing homes

ETA: death rate for non-nursing home might have something to do with quality of care - more deaths as hospital system became overwhelmed.

Edited by Rohn Jambo

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Yep.

Mask usage around here is inconsistent. Sometimes I go to the store and it looks like its 90% plus. Others it looks like less than half.

Those that don't or won't wear masks have me flummoxed. Just don't know where they're coming from.

It's mostly political, with some ignorance thrown in.

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3 hours ago, Rohn Jambo said:

Yesterday Brazil surpassed the US as the country with most new CV deaths in a day (703 vs. 617)

Yes - rather scary for Brazil.  I didn’t post on Covid worldometers yesterday (away at our family cottage for the weekend), but I see over 96K new cases yesterday.  US at 19,600 and Brazil at 16,200.  And the US will pass 100,000 total deaths today.😢

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'It's pretty dire': Montgomery mayor says there are 'just a handful' of ICU beds left as Alabama reopens theaters, summer camps, and daycare

...

"It's pretty dire," Reed, a first-term Democrat, said. "More people are coming in [to the hospitals] and they're coming in in worse shape."

At a press conference on Wednesday, Reed warned of a hospital-bed shortage, saying his city's healthcare system had been "maxed out." He blamed the surge in new infections on the statewide loosening of social-distancing policies, and said his city's hospitals were seeing a significant influx of patients from neighboring rural areas, where healthcare systems are weaker.

...

Alabama's Republican governor, Kay Ivey, ignored federal guidelines earlier this month when she ended her stay-home order after just four weeks.

On May 11, salons and gyms reopened and restaurants resumed serving customers in their dining rooms. Ivey is quickly loosening other restrictions, including allowing groups of all sizes to gather, as long as people remain six feet apart. Theaters, music venues, daycare, and summer camps are all permitted to reopen starting on Friday, and schools are set to reopen next month.

...

"I'm not sure cities and states, much less small businesses, are going to be able to adequately deal with a second wave, should one come at another point this year due to an outbreak or another surge in cases, if there's not a different approach to this virus," he told Insider.

Reed says many in his city and state are "letting down their guard" and beginning to go about life as normal as the state reopens. He's urging his constituents to stay home as much as they can and is considering implementing new restrictions in the city.

...

'It's pretty dire': Montgomery mayor says there are 'just a handful' of ICU beds left as Alabama reopens theaters, summer camps, and daycare
Eliza Relman May 22, 2020, 1:20 PM
Kimmy Tillery, a hair dresser from Tuscaloosa, Ala., holds a sign during a protest to reopen Alabama's economy outside the Capitol in Montgomery, Ala., on Tuesday, April 21, 2020.
Kimmy Tillery, a hairdresser from Tuscaloosa, Alabama, at a protest to reopen the economy outside the capitol, in Montgomery, on April 21. Kim Chandler/AP Images
Montgomery, Alabama, Mayor Steven Reed says Covid-19 cases are surging in his city with hospitals near their breaking point.
Reed told Insider in a Thursday interview that the state capitol was "down to just a handful of ICU beds" and blamed the "dire" situation on the governor's decision to reopen the state even as cases continue to mount.
Reed warns that his state may not be able to manage a predicted second wave of infections without more help from the federal government.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
Montgomery, Alabama, Mayor Steven Reed is sounding the alarm as his city's hospitals near their breaking point and the state's conservative governor rapidly loosens social-distancing policies and reopens businesses.

Reed told Insider in a Thursday interview that the state capitol was "down to just a handful of ICU beds" as Covid-19 patients flood the city's hospitals, which have begun sending overflow acute-care patients to Birmingham.

"It's pretty dire," Reed, a first-term Democrat, said. "More people are coming in [to the hospitals] and they're coming in in worse shape."

At a press conference on Wednesday, Reed warned of a hospital-bed shortage, saying his city's healthcare system had been "maxed out." He blamed the surge in new infections on the statewide loosening of social-distancing policies, and said his city's hospitals were seeing a significant influx of patients from neighboring rural areas, where healthcare systems are weaker.

It all comes as reports emerged that the White House considers Montgomery one of the country's top virus hotspots. A research team at Philadelphia's Children's Hospital recently said that the entire state of Alabama could see a resurgence of the virus over the next month as reopenings continue.

A rapid reopening
Alabama's Republican governor, Kay Ivey, ignored federal guidelines earlier this month when she ended her stay-home order after just four weeks.

On May 11, salons and gyms reopened and restaurants resumed serving customers in their dining rooms. Ivey is quickly loosening other restrictions, including allowing groups of all sizes to gather, as long as people remain six feet apart. Theaters, music venues, daycare, and summer camps are all permitted to reopen starting on Friday, and schools are set to reopen next month.

But Reed thinks the state is reopening too quickly.

"I would have preferred a slower reopening, a more cautious reopening," the mayor told Insider.

But, he added, "We're here now, and we're going to have to manage the circumstances."

He said the business community and others influencing Ivey's decision have been impatient to get back to normal and don't want the government telling them what to do.

Ivey conceded that Alabama's infection rate was "not as good as we would hope" during a Thursday press conference announcing the reopenings. But she argued: "We cannot sustain a delayed way of life as we search for a vaccine. It's not realistic to believe we're going to keep everyone totally isolated from each other."

Montgomery, Alabama Mayor Steven Reed
Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed. Screenshot/City of Montgomery
The mayor said he and other state and local leaders should be ready to issue a new stay-home order if the situation continues to deteriorate or there's a new wave of infections down the line. But he said that without help from the federal government on testing and contact tracing, localities may not be able to fight off a resurgence of the virus.

"I'm not sure cities and states, much less small businesses, are going to be able to adequately deal with a second wave, should one come at another point this year due to an outbreak or another surge in cases, if there's not a different approach to this virus," he told Insider.

Reed says many in his city and state are "letting down their guard" and beginning to go about life as normal as the state reopens. He's urging his constituents to stay home as much as they can and is considering implementing new restrictions in the city.

As of Thursday, Alabama had 13,288 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 528 deaths, according to data published by Johns Hopkins University. Montgomery County has the second-highest case load of any county in the state.

A call for federal help
Reed, who is Montgomery's first African-American mayor, said he wants the country to recognize that black and Latino communities were suffering disproportionately from the public-health and economic crises because of systemic inequality.

"The nation has to acknowledge the racial disparities don't exist because people don't want to do their part to narrow that gap," he said.

And more broadly, working-class and lower-income Alabamians don't have the resources to ride out an extended crisis.

As a result of the pandemic, the city of Montgomery is facing a 20% to 25% revenue shortfall this year, which will require the government to cut funding for a range of social services.

Reed wants the federal government to send funding for cities and states — something congressional Republicans have pushed back on. The mayor argued that, without federal support, already underfunded local governments will fail their citizens and inequality will deepen.

"How are we going to address education in this community? How are we going to bridge the digital divide? How are we going to make sure that those who are already on the margins don't fall of a cliff?" he said. "I think national leaders have to understand that it's going to be very vital that they make the decision to reinvest in this country."

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1 hour ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Really great article on high risk locations/activities.

Some incredible detective work involved in these examples.  The graphs take a bit of time to figure out, but they're worth it.

Bottom line IMO:  high-contact indoor spaces are high risk, especially if prolonged or particularly close. (Yeah, not rocket science.  But should be given more weight than they are in terms of what's allowed to open up.)

A very good list.  I assume theaters are no-no?

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3 hours ago, stlrams said:

Don’t agree that population density is the sole reason when we are talking about a closed environment I.e. nursing homes.  Especially when ct population density 84% higher then Florida yet nursing home deaths 10x. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183588/population-density-in-the-federal-states-of-the-us/

Population density is not the SOLE reason, but it is a big one.  Another big reason is the proximity to the epicenter, NYC.  I live in southeastern CT, just near the Rhode Island border.  I guarantee the nursing homes in my county are nowhere close to the death rate of southwestern CT.  I would also bet the nursing home death rate in my county in CT is lower than the nursing home death rate in a place like Miami-Dade county in FL.  It's about density and proximity to hot spots.

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50 minutes ago, NotSmart said:
2 hours ago, Doug B said:

Yep.

Mask usage around here is inconsistent. Sometimes I go to the store and it looks like its 90% plus. Others it looks like less than half.

Those that don't or won't wear masks have me flummoxed. Just don't know where they're coming from.

It's mostly political, with some ignorance thrown in.

First impressions are that the ones refusing masks for political reasons are pretty roundly outnumbered by those doing it for other reasons (e.g. ignorance, feelings of invincibility, obliviousness to the world). How much can you really tell about a person by just eyeing them up, though?

Mask compliance among under-thirties, around here, is pretty poor. Mask compliance also seems decidedly higher among those in more "prestigious" socio-economic brackets.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, shader said:

Sure. 712 cases, 13 deaths. 1.8% mortality rate. Probably a bit higher than what many expect (1%) because the average age skewed a bit older.  

But it’s a great example of a closed system of people that were tested and have completed the course of the virus.

It would be interesting to see numbers for the Wuhan testing.  According to the city’s  municipal health committee report, they have collected swab tests from 9 out of 11 million people in Wuhan since May 15th.   They will get results in much less time using sample pooling (similar to Germany).  Given they are using this method, they are probably looking for hidden asymptomatic and confirmed cases only and not antibody data.

Edited by Rohn Jambo

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31 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Lots of people buying ice at the supermarket today

Warm beer sucks

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