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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (23 Viewers)

Your credentials aren’t better than mine.  🤷‍♂️

I know you are trying to help, but you are only making things worse.  

Here’s a quote for you:

“We are well managed to prepare for an increase in patient volume”

 
Hard to know, without some knowledge of your background. As for me, I’ve worked in a hospital setting for over two decades, directly cared for COVID patients and been involved in formulating local policy related to the pandemic.

 
This is ridiculous.  (The outcome, not your post).

Edit: Whoops, just saw the update.  Glad the situation isn't so dire.
This is my local "go to" news source....they are pretty decent and keep their opinions out of the news for the most part.  Of course, I wish they'd focus less on shootings etc, but beggars can't be choosers.  I'd be pretty confident in their reporting.  As I said up just a bit, the spin zone is in full effect here and the press conference yesterday was a complete train wreck.  I don't see how anyone came out of that thing with a clear picture of anything so this sort of incorrect information doesn't surprise me at all.  He's doing everything he can to explain away all the new cases and positivity rate going up and in doing so, it appears he's shooting himself in the foot.  Oddly enough, if he'd just have stuck to the reality, it shines a much more favorable light on the situation than his attempt at spin.

 
Interesting plans coming out for schools in Dallas.  Some are planning to centralize e-learning to the extent that classroom teachers are independent from e-learning.  

 
Interesting plans coming out for schools in Dallas.  Some are planning to centralize e-learning to the extent that classroom teachers are independent from e-learning.  
That would be interesting for sure.  As for my kids' school/classes/teachers, one of them (the 1st grader) was on top of things e-learning wise, while the other (3rd grade) was a disaster.

I bet it would help to have one central source that would handle all the e-learning, opening the teachers up to handling the in-class stuff.

 
According to Worldometer, some states are doing much better than others when it comes to deaths vs positives.  Here are the top 10 worst & best states:

1 - Connecticut - 9.28%                        50 - Utah - 0.97%
2 - Michigan - 9.11%                             49 - South Dakota - 1.29%
3 - New York - 7.64%                            48 - Nebraska - 1.36%
4 - Pennsylvania - 7.55%                     47 - Arkansas - 1.43%
5 - New Jersey - 7.54%                        46 - Tennessee - 1.55%
6 - Massachusetts - 7.24%                 45 - Wyoming - 1.65%
7 - Louisiana - 6.39%                           44 - Alaska - 1.78%
8 - Ohio - 6.19%                                    43 - Texas - 2.15%
9 - New Hampshire - 6.08%                42 - Kansas - 2.15%
10 - Indiana - 6.00%                             41 - Hawaii - 2.30%

Is the virus more deadly on the east coast versus the rest of the US?
Are some states just doing a bad job protecting their elderly?
Are east coasters out of shape compared to the rest?
Are the higher percentage states testing a larger portion of their elderly/at risk?

I just find it hard to believe you are 10 times more likely to die if infected in CT as you are in UT.  The states are pretty similar in amount tested (#'s 9 & 14 overall), so what gives?


This is due to failure to test early on.   Basically no testing in NY state in the beginning and I know people admitted to the hospital for Covid that were never tested since they didn't have enough testing.  
I suspect that's a big portion of it.  I know at the time that PA had their highest hospitalization rate, it was extremely difficult to get tested.  The positive rate has been steadily declining here for weeks.  There are definitely a ton of positives missing from the denominator.  I've seen people try to extract the actual arrival curve based on testing rates, but it is not clear to me what assumptions they are making so it's hard to know if the end result has any merit.  You would think the state health departments would be doing the same thing, but if they are it doesn't seem like they are sharing it with the public.

 
I'm not sure what that e-means.   Do you have a link?
https://www.garlandisd.net/content/coronavirus-covid-19

6/17 Update: Return to school options

Garland ISD families will select from two options for their children when returning to school in August:

  • Option 1: Full-time in-person on campuses, with heightened hygiene and disinfection protocols 
  • Option 2:  Full-time virtual eLearning with district-provided technology and internet hotspots, as needed.
GISD has been advocating with the Texas Education Agency and state leadership to be able to offer these two options.

 
Few thoughts on this:

  • I'd never go to a car show even if there was no pandemic
  • They need to clarify if the 250 people rule applies to outdoor
  • I find the argument persuasive that you can't be ok with (and participate in) protests but not allow something like this to move forward.  Even if you try to take politics and/or social impact out of it, it doesn't make sense and just makes the conversation devolve in to a political one.
 
That would be interesting for sure.  As for my kids' school/classes/teachers, one of them (the 1st grader) was on top of things e-learning wise, while the other (3rd grade) was a disaster.

I bet it would help to have one central source that would handle all the e-learning, opening the teachers up to handling the in-class stuff.
A friend of mine is doing zoom learning this summer with a few of her 4 year old students whose parents want them to learn and be prepared for the next school year. Her preschool did virtual for about 6 weeks in March and April until the parents stopped paying. She learned alot from those 6 weeks. Her summer sessions are 2-3 times a week for 40-60 minutes,  focusing on phonics, subitizing and arithmetic. With some robotics thrown in for fun. She loaned them a box of manipulatives, including Ozobot. She gives the parents lesson plans, so they can continue to teach at home. 

The parents and students need to be motivated for it to work. The students already knew her, which helped. Delivering content virtually takes some experience.

 
The parents and students need to be motivated for it to work. The students already knew her, which helped. Delivering content virtually takes some experience.
I think this is a huge issue.  We expected teachers to be engaging content creators like they are youtube stars or something.

That's hard.  

Even at let's say the law school level, why can't people just read law books and take the bar?  Isn't the goal to pass the bar and be a lawyer?  Yet there are 1000? law schools setup to spoon feed this information.  People need some interaction.

 
I think this is a huge issue.  We expected teachers to be engaging content creators like they are youtube stars or something.

That's hard.  

Even at let's say the law school level, why can't people just read law books and take the bar?  Isn't the goal to pass the bar and be a lawyer?  Yet there are 1000? law schools setup to spoon feed this information.  People need some interaction.
Law schools' education model makes very little sense.  

 
https://www.garlandisd.net/content/coronavirus-covid-19

6/17 Update: Return to school options

Garland ISD families will select from two options for their children when returning to school in August:

  • Option 1: Full-time in-person on campuses, with heightened hygiene and disinfection protocols 
  • Option 2:  Full-time virtual eLearning with district-provided technology and internet hotspots, as needed.
GISD has been advocating with the Texas Education Agency and state leadership to be able to offer these two options.
I could see how this could work for elementary school kids, but not high school.  

 
I think this is a huge issue.  We expected teachers to be engaging content creators like they are youtube stars or something.

That's hard.  

Even at let's say the law school level, why can't people just read law books and take the bar?  Isn't the goal to pass the bar and be a lawyer?  Yet there are 1000? law schools setup to spoon feed this information.  People need some interaction.
Most people take a bar review course at the end of their third year that confirms that most of your time spent studying in law school was wasted.

 
Few thoughts on this:

  • I'd never go to a car show even if there was no pandemic
  • They need to clarify if the 250 people rule applies to outdoor
  • I find the argument persuasive that you can't be ok with (and participate in) protests but not allow something like this to move forward.  Even if you try to take politics and/or social impact out of it, it doesn't make sense and just makes the conversation devolve in to a political one.
I saw this last night in the context of the health department suing the event.

I'm not the target demographic either, but I was wondering if there were really going to be 100K there, as that sounds like the "usual" number, which you would expect to be lower this year.  Also didn't have a feel for how that is spread out - it's a multi-day festival and I assume it's a bit physically spread out too, so it won't quite be like 100K at a PSU game.  Still, doesn't seem like a great idea, although as you mention people see things like the huge Philly protest and decide that they've been given the silent all clear.

 
I see it as the exact opposite but there are so many issues to solve I doubt any one group has an ideal situation
Yea same here. I think high school teachers would have an easier transition to online learning than elementary teachers. I say that fro  experience as a high school teacher and knowing many elemeyand high school teachers.

Also think high school kids are already well versed in technology and have more ability to socialize outside school. 

I don't know though. Anecdotally, my kids elementary school teacher has been teaching for 35 years. She is incredible and loving and cares so much about the kids. She doesn't have a clue as to how to use technology to teach though.  And expecting her to learn it I. 2 weeks, or over a whole summer even, is unrealistic. 

If e-learning is our new reality we have to pour billions of dollars into curriculum development and teacher training. 

 
This is my local "go to" news source....they are pretty decent and keep their opinions out of the news for the most part.  Of course, I wish they'd focus less on shootings etc, but beggars can't be choosers.  I'd be pretty confident in their reporting.  As I said up just a bit, the spin zone is in full effect here and the press conference yesterday was a complete train wreck.  I don't see how anyone came out of that thing with a clear picture of anything so this sort of incorrect information doesn't surprise me at all.  He's doing everything he can to explain away all the new cases and positivity rate going up and in doing so, it appears he's shooting himself in the foot.  Oddly enough, if he'd just have stuck to the reality, it shines a much more favorable light on the situation than his attempt at spin.
It's tough for Florida.  I never try to excuse politicians, but he's in a tough spot.  The budget is built around tourism and a huge portion comes in the summer.  Now he's got Disney planning to open and the NBA planning to play in Orlando.  

Yet cases are spiking.  It's a no-win situation, but he does seem to be handling it as poorly as possible.

 
Yea same here. I think high school teachers would have an easier transition to online learning than elementary teachers. I say that fro  experience as a high school teacher and knowing many elemeyand high school teachers.

Also think high school kids are already well versed in technology and have more ability to socialize outside school. 

I don't know though. Anecdotally, my kids elementary school teacher has been teaching for 35 years. She is incredible and loving and cares so much about the kids. She doesn't have a clue as to how to use technology to teach though.  And expecting her to learn it I. 2 weeks, or over a whole summer even, is unrealistic. 

If e-learning is our new reality we have to pour billions of dollars into curriculum development and teacher training. 
I'm not talking about transitioning to e-learning.  I'm talking about centralizing the curriculum and separating independent teachers from e-learning.  How does that work in high school?  Good luck with your AP classes, kids!  

 
I just caught some of Duceys press conference in Az.

He is leaving it up to mayors to mandate mask wearing. I have been wearing one the whole time but I am definitely the minority. I hope that changes but I doubt it.

 
It's tough for Florida.  I never try to excuse politicians, but he's in a tough spot.  The budget is built around tourism and a huge portion comes in the summer.  Now he's got Disney planning to open and the NBA planning to play in Orlando.  

Yet cases are spiking.  It's a no-win situation, but he does seem to be handling it as poorly as possible.
Agreed. Now the spike is due to more testing and results piling up from a while ago. I don’t buy it since the documented positive cases are also increasing at a higher rate. It’s sad to me that if it’s old cases, then poor decisions were made a while ago. If they’re new cases, then the economy is more important. Bad form imo. 

 
I'm not talking about transitioning to e-learning.  I'm talking about centralizing the curriculum and separating independent teachers from e-learning.  How does that work in high school?  Good luck with your AP classes, kids!  
I'm stunned people are fixated at the high school level.  That seems the easiest to solve. What am I missing?  

 
What qualifies as a spike?

Since early May there have been news reports of spikes all over the country and in many cases they settled after a few days. I'm not saying there won't be spikes, I fully expect there to be some in certain places around the US but there needs to be some sort of definition of what constitutes a true spike and what is an increase in cases and hospitalizations. A spike needs to be addressed immediately whereas an increase in cases and hospitalizations should be monitored and not blown out of proportion by the media.

 
It's tough for Florida.  I never try to excuse politicians, but he's in a tough spot.  The budget is built around tourism and a huge portion comes in the summer.  Now he's got Disney planning to open and the NBA planning to play in Orlando.  

Yet cases are spiking.  It's a no-win situation, but he does seem to be handling it as poorly as possible.
He could have made this much easier on himself from requiring masks at all times to shutting things down to a level other areas of the country shut down.  He can't hide the issues here...they are there for all to see.  There's no point in trying to spin at this point.  It just makes him look foolish.

 
What qualifies as a spike?

Since early May there have been news reports of spikes all over the country and in many cases they settled after a few days. I'm not saying there won't be spikes, I fully expect there to be some in certain places around the US but there needs to be some sort of definition of what constitutes a true spike and what is an increase in cases and hospitalizations. A spike needs to be addressed immediately whereas an increase in cases and hospitalizations should be monitored and not blown out of proportion by the media.
How about doubling (or more) your daily case count and/or doubling(or more) your positivity rate?

 
I'm stunned people are fixated at the high school level.  That seems the easiest to solve. What am I missing?  
Grades that matter for going to college?  The fact that all 3rd graders are doing the same thing but high schoolers have 6 different classes?  Having a “centralized” curriculum doesn’t work when you have a few hundred kids, all taking different schedules.

 
It's tough for Florida.  I never try to excuse politicians, but he's in a tough spot.  The budget is built around tourism and a huge portion comes in the summer.  Now he's got Disney planning to open and the NBA planning to play in Orlando.  

Yet cases are spiking.  It's a no-win situation, but he does seem to be handling it as poorly as possible.
Meh. Hawaii is more dependent on tourism, and we’re taking a much more measured approach to re-opening.

 
I just caught some of Duceys press conference in Az.

He is leaving it up to mayors to mandate mask wearing. I have been wearing one the whole time but I am definitely the minority. I hope that changes but I doubt it.
Seems like a lot of the mayors are putting a mandate in place. I’d guess that if it’s hit or miss, some of the chain businesses will put a policy in place for the whole metro area.

 
Bruce Patterson giving a TEDx talk on COVID-19 earlier today.  He knows as much about how this disease works as anyone.  Start around 12:50.
Interesting talk. If it pans out, I think the challenge will be determining when to use leronlimab. There are a lot of inflammatory markers used in medicine, and tmk none of them are specific enough upon which to base targeted therapy. Maybe RANTES is different. 

The cost of therapy is also likely to be a problem. Monoclonal antibodies are among the most expensive drugs available, costing thousands-tens of thousands of dollars per dose. Used as cancer immunotherapy, they’ve already pushed the envelope for cost effectiveness. Some of the $ may be offset by saved days of ICU care, but it may be difficult to get insurers to foot the bill for tens of thousands (or more) patients. And that’s just in this county, as it’s doubtful such a drug can be produced at a scale to manage the pandemic elsewhere, especially the developing world.

I hope it continues to show promise. In the meantime, maybe more low tech alternatives like dexamethasone can keep the immune system in check.

 
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Hawaii is gonna get crushed when tourism kicks back in.  
That’s the concern, but thankfully our leadership hasn’t caved into the tourism industry yet.

I mentioned this upthread, but we’re actually considering reopening to international tourism before that from the US mainland, as places like Japan, Korea and New Zealand are doing a much better job than the US.

 
What qualifies as a spike?

Since early May there have been news reports of spikes all over the country and in many cases they settled after a few days. I'm not saying there won't be spikes, I fully expect there to be some in certain places around the US but there needs to be some sort of definition of what constitutes a true spike and what is an increase in cases and hospitalizations. A spike needs to be addressed immediately whereas an increase in cases and hospitalizations should be monitored and not blown out of proportion by the media.
I don’t think the media is blowing anything out of proportion.  

 
Interesting talk. If it pans out, I think the challenge will be determining when to use leronlimab. There are a lot of inflammatory markers used in medicine, and tmk none of them are specific enough upon which to base targeted therapy. Maybe RANTES is different. 

The cost of therapy is also likely to be a problem. Monoclonal antibodies are among the most expensive drugs available, costing thousands-tens of thousands of dollars per dose. Used as cancer immunotherapy, they’ve already pushed the envelope for cost effectiveness. Some of the $ may be offset by saved days of ICU care, but it may be difficult to get insurers to foot the bill for tens of thousands (or more) patients. And that’s just in this county, as it’s doubtful such a drug can be produced at a scale to manage the pandemic elsewhere, especially the developing world.

I hope it continues to show promise. In the meantime, maybe more low tech alternatives like hydrocortisone can keep the immune system in check.
Nothing definitive yet but I've heard talk of $1000-1500/dose.  Most patients will require 2 does with some mild cases being fine with 1 and some critical cases needing 3.  Each dose is 2 vials given subcutaneously to either side of the abdomen so a hospital stay isn't required for the mild/moderate cases.  In terms of when to start therapy, mild/moderate cases are exhibiting 5x normal rantes levels so that could be a staring point for patients.

CytoDyn has 1.5MM vials on order for 2020 which is enough to treat 375K patients.  They have 5MM vials ordered for 2021.

 
I’m sad to say that I know very little about how it works in Hawaii.  I’d love to change that though!
We are extremely dependent on tourism, going from near the lowest unemployment to highest in the nation since SARS-COV-2 arrived. Despite that, and a huge Asian population with ties to early hotspots, we’ve kept our numbers low. I attribute this largely to a more compliant population, with greater comfort wearing masks and following rules in the face of hardship. Additionally, we shut things down relatively early and are reopening more slowly than other places, nearly in line with the guidelines set forth by the federal government.

Tourism will be our downfall, but currently every visitor must quarantine for 2 weeks after arrival (and it’s enforced!) + there is talk of mandating testing before prospective tourists leave their place of origin. Personally, I hope we use this opportunity to explore ways to build a more locally sustainable economy, though that’s probably a pipe dream.

 
Nothing definitive yet but I've heard talk of $1000-1500/dose.  Most patients will require 2 does with some mild cases being fine with 1 and some critical cases needing 3.  Each dose is 2 vials given subcutaneously to either side of the abdomen so a hospital stay isn't required for the mild/moderate cases.  In terms of when to start therapy, mild/moderate cases are exhibiting 5x normal rantes levels so that could be a staring point for patients.

CytoDyn has 1.5MM vials on order for 2020 which is enough to treat 375K patients.  They have 5MM vials ordered for 2021.
That would be incredible if those prices and production holds up, though it still may be a tough sell for more mild cases.

 
Over how many days? If that happens 3 or 4 days in a row...sure.
Well, it's not going 3%, 6% the next day, 12% the next, but we've had well over a thousand more cases a day this week (and end of last week) and a positivity rate was 9ish% yesterday and over 10% today (first time that's happened through this whole fiasco).  Prior to Mem Day we were in the 700-800 range with a few days hitting 1K...now we are averaging over 1K per day.   I think we hit over 2K today (need to verify, but thought I heard that on the news)

 
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