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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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Boss will be returning to the states next week after being in SE Asia for 3 weeks.  Coworkers are wondering if he should quarantine himself.  :oldunsure: 

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30 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

So observation: this thread started last Thursday. If memory serves, there were around 900 confirmed cases confined mostly to Wuhan. In less than a week, there are at least 12,000.

I can entertain that patients had already been exposed and new cases are a product of those incubations, and now measures are in place to more strictly quarantine new patients.

But absent that argument, I don’t see how this isn’t much harder to contain now that there are 12x more patients spread out globally. Would seem we’re about to see the kind of exponentials that make this a pandemic. If in another 6 days, were at around 150k, I’d expect those cases would be far more asynchronously distributed and harder to contain, such that another week might see more like 2m cases and then it’s an exponential curve up from there.

Given the 12x+ rise in the past week, can anyone make a convincing argument for why we won’t see a worse trajectory from here?

(Writing from airport lounge with layover in ATL, with direct flights from China. I’m concerned and will wipe down my seats and wash/sanitize hands, but no mask on me yet.)

7711 confirmed cases per bbc

4500 of which are in Hubei province

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27 minutes ago, The General said:

Good times @AAABatteries

I think the electrocuting purged any virus (or maybe the Mezcal). Feeling strong like bull.

Thanks again for the drinks and tell my new amigos any business deals I may have signed are null and void :lol:

 

Getting electrocuted by coworker of @AAABatteries

Username checks out

 

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5 minutes ago, WDIK2 said:

Boss will be returning to the states next week after being in SE Asia for 3 weeks.  Coworkers are wondering if he should quarantine himself.  :oldunsure: 

Yes

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From a Belgian facebook journalist friend (now bar owner)

A voice of reason I’m not hearing enough these days.

During the ebola epidemic, I had the honor of interviewing Dr. Guido Van der Groen twice. He’s one of the two Belgian doctors that discovered ebola in Congo back in 1976, and still one of the world’s leading authorities on virus-born disease.

Guy knows his ####.

“If you hear about any virus in the media because it starts killing people, then that virus has zero chance of becoming a global pandemic. If it kills the host too quickly, the virus is essentially too stupid and agressive to become a true global threat. [...] If there’s ever going to be a virus that becomes a threat to humanity, it’ll have a long incubation time, and the actual period of illness will be much longer. The disease needs time, otherwise its opportunities to spread will be snuffed out with the death of each host.”

So yeah, just like with all viruses: respect the human tragedy of the victims, but don’t freak out. 

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21 minutes ago, msommer said:

7711 confirmed cases per bbc

4500 of which are in Hubei province

Thank you. Bradyfan had posted 12,167, but Google shows that’s total number of suspected cases. So confirmed cases is a minimum of half as bad as my concerns. (Depending in how many of those 5k non-confirmed are the virus.)

Given that rapid curve and likelihood it steepens if it spreads in more cities, I still need convincing how many millions are not going to face between 2-5% chance of dying from this. Seems we’re on that trajectory over the next 1-3 months at least.

Of course I hope I’m wrong. But what will level off that curve?

Edited by Mr. Ham

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1 minute ago, Mr. Ham said:

Thank you. Bradyfan had posted 12,167, but Google shows that’s total number of suspected cases. So confirmed cases is a minimum of half as bad as my concerns. (Depending in how many of those 5k non-confirmed are the virus.)

Given that rapid curve and likelihood it steepens if it spreads in more cities, I still need convincing how many millions are not going to face between 2-5% chance of dying from this. Seems we’re on that trajectory over the next 1-3 months at least.

Of course I hope I’m wrong. But what will level off that curve?

current death rate 2.3%. I think I saw a daily graph where ydays numbers showed a slight bend to the right compared to the previous days. Who knows

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3 minutes ago, msommer said:

current death rate 2.3%. I think I saw a daily graph where ydays numbers showed a slight bend to the right compared to the previous days. Who knows

:shrug:
 

Would assume death rate would increase at real scale from lack available healthcare are supplies.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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18 minutes ago, msommer said:

current death rate 2.3%. I think I saw a daily graph where ydays numbers showed a slight bend to the right compared to the previous days. Who knows

Mostly Chinese fatalities? What sort of healthcare is available in the primary infection zone?

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21 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

:shrug:
 

Would assume death rate would increase at real scale from lack available healthcare are supplies.

Ranges are a little all over the place now, but there are several scientific groups that are putting this in the same contagion range as the normal flu while being less deadly.  

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First person to person transfer in US in Chicago. 6 cases. Both hospitalized in stable condition. 

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17 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

Ranges are a little all over the place now, but there are several scientific groups that are putting this in the same contagion range as the normal flu while being less deadly.  

Wait, the normal flu is *more* deadly than this?

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16 minutes ago, [icon] said:

First person to person transfer in US in Chicago. 6 cases. Both hospitalized in stable condition. 

Some additional details:  Spouse of first Chicago case.  Close personal contact.

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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Yes

He's not the type to quarantine himself.  I think the timing works out that he will be back a week I will be out of the office.  So I have that going for me.  Which is nice.

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1 minute ago, WDIK2 said:

He's not the type to quarantine himself.  I think the timing works out that he will be back a week I will be out of the office.  So I have that going for me.  Which is nice.

I'd call in sick the following week as well. You're gonna need 2 weeks away from that walking bacteria farm.

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47 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

Ranges are a little all over the place now, but there are several scientific groups that are putting this in the same contagion range as the normal flu while being less deadly.  

So the flu, we're talking about the flu. Got it. Next time doc just say the flu, that's all you gotta say, it's the flu.

 

Oscar : Ok, Mr. Truman, let's say that we actually do land on this. What's it gonna be like up there?

Truman : 200 degrees in the sunlight, minus 200 in the shade, canyons of razor-sharp rock, unpredictable gravitational conditions, unexpected eruptions, things like that.

Oscar : Okay, so the scariest environment imaginable. Thanks. That's all you gotta say, scariest environment imaginable.

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17 minutes ago, Worm said:

Makes more sense. @Foosball God 🤨

Try world wide numbers.  US isn't the best for determining the fatality of the flu, just like most of the fatalities for Corona virus are not in the US.

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6 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

Try world wide numbers.  US isn't the best for determining the fatality of the flu, just like most of the fatalities for Corona virus are not in the US.

Good point.  I don't know what health care in Wuhan is like.

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I guarantee you there is/were some multiple of 7500-12000 people infected that never went to a doctor and are getting/got better.  I'd bet the actual death rate of this thing is well under 1%.

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14 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Good point.  I don't know what health care in Wuhan is like.

Oscar : Ok, Mr. Truman, let's say that we actually do land in Wuhan. What's it gonna be like there?

Truman : 200 degrees in the sunlight, minus 200 in the shade, canyons of razor-sharp rock, unpredictable gravitational conditions, unexpected eruptions, things like that.

Oscar : Okay, so the scariest environment imaginable. Thanks. That's all you gotta say, scariest environment imaginable.

 

Armageddon, the gift that keeps on giving :thumbup: Also how i picture medical care in Wuhan right now.

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World Health Emergency declared by Pete Townshend and the WHO.

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1 minute ago, TheIronSheik said:

World Health Emergency declared by Pete Townshend and the WHO.

🎶 Fluuuuuuuu are you/Flu hoo/Flu hoo 🎶

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56 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

I guarantee you there is/were some multiple of 7500-12000 people infected that never went to a doctor and are getting/got better.  I'd bet the actual death rate of this thing is well under 1%.

Thanks for sharing the results of your research, Doc. :thumbup:

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3 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Thanks for sharing the results of your research, Doc. :thumbup:

Here put this under tongue.

 

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Going to be interesting what ends up happening with that cruise ship situation

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At ATL. Still no one wearing masks.Goes without saying it’s packed. 
 

Okay, this is kind of hysterical... stopped to write this as I arrived at E Terminal, which is one of the International terminals. A group of about 15 Chinese men walked to either side of me, half wearing masks. One guy coughed into his arm, though is was an American guy trialing them, just as he passed me to the left.

Have seen thousands since I landed and those are only masks. Did have a moment with guy who like me was washing his hands like going into surgery, so at least some are very aware.

Normally I’d have a bite in the Delta Lounge between flights. Not today.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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8 minutes ago, Penguin said:

Going to be interesting what ends up happening with that cruise ship situation

Well the last time a cruise ship was quarantined like this, there were plastic bags of people's #### left all over the boat and people were crapping all over the place and what not.  I'm sure we'll see the same if this lasts a while.  

You couldn't pay me enough to ever set foot on a cruise.  And in the middle of a global health scare no less, there are people who have no problem going on one of these right now?  

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9 minutes ago, Scoresman said:

Well the last time a cruise ship was quarantined like this, there were plastic bags of people's #### left all over the boat and people were crapping all over the place and what not.  I'm sure we'll see the same if this lasts a while.  

You couldn't pay me enough to ever set foot on a cruise.  And in the middle of a global health scare no less, there are people who have no problem going on one of these right now?  

Have a cruise coming up in June, 10 days Mediterranean. Wife asked if we should buy the insurance. Whereas it’s not a bad idea, I said not for this. By June, it’s either under control or it’s apparent that cruise ships aren’t running. Probably and hopefully the former.

Edited by Mr. Ham

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10 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

At ATL. Still no one wearing masks.Goes without saying it’s packed. 
 

Okay, this is kind of hysterical... stopped to write this as I arrived at E Terminal, which is one of the International terminals. A group of about 15 Chinese men walked to either side of me, half wearing masks. One guy coughed into his arm, though is was an American guy trialing them, just as he passed me to the left.

Have seen thousands since I landed and those are only masks. Did have a moment with guy who like me was washing his hands like going into surgery, so at least some are very aware.

Normally I’d have a bite in the Delta Lounge between flights. Not today.

Sounds like some solid schtick.  Just wander around the airport coughing.  Maybe rub your eyes a bit so they look a little red and puffy.

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3 minutes ago, Vanilla Guerrilla said:

Sounds like some solid schtick.  Just wander around the airport coughing.  Maybe rub your eyes a bit so they look a little red and puffy.

while wearing Wuhan University shirt:thumbup:

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Of course my flight to West Palm Beach is the very last gate at the end of one of the two International terminals in one of the busiest airports in the world. 

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8 minutes ago, Parrothead said:

while wearing Wuhan University shirt:thumbup:

:ptts:

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1 hour ago, Scoresman said:

Well the last time a cruise ship was quarantined like this, there were plastic bags of people's #### left all over the boat and people were crapping all over the place and what not.  I'm sure we'll see the same if this lasts a while.  

You couldn't pay me enough to ever set foot on a cruise.  And in the middle of a global health scare no less, there are people who have no problem going on one of these right now?  

Going in May. 5 people in the states have been hit by this. We should stop living life?

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1 minute ago, Capella said:

Going in May. 5 people in the states have been hit by this. We should stop living life?

I wouldn't exactly call going on a cruise livin' it up, but to each their own.  Don't stop living life, but a cruise is probably one of the last places I'd want to be right now.  Cruises are floating petri dishes of germs and bacteria.  To be trapped on one of those with thousands of other people who have been travelling to and from who knows where isn't an ideal situation to me right now.  And even though the chances of getting coronavirus are still very low, getting sick on one with something else certainly is not, and with how cautious everyone is being, a repeat scenario of the SS Listeria debacle from a few years ago where people were left quarantined and ####ting in bags isn't all that unlikely.  

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4 minutes ago, Scoresman said:

I wouldn't exactly call going on a cruise livin' it up, but to each their own.  Don't stop living life, but a cruise is probably one of the last places I'd want to be right now.  Cruises are floating petri dishes of germs and bacteria.  To be trapped on one of those with thousands of other people who have been travelling to and from who knows where isn't an ideal situation to me right now.  And even though the chances of getting coronavirus are still very low, getting sick on one with something else certainly is not, and with how cautious everyone is being, a repeat scenario of the SS Listeria debacle from a few years ago where people were left quarantined and ####ting in bags isn't all that unlikely.  

We went in December. Had a lot of fun. Everybody was fine. You’re being a bit dramatic. 

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3 minutes ago, Capella said:

We went in December. Had a lot of fun. Everybody was fine. You’re being a bit dramatic. 

I might be.  I just really hate cruises for a variety of reasons. 

Everybody has that one thing that they don't understand why other people like it, and cruises are that thing for me.  

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13 minutes ago, Scoresman said:

I wouldn't exactly call going on a cruise livin' it up, but to each their own.  Don't stop living life, but a cruise is probably one of the last places I'd want to be right now.  Cruises are floating petri dishes of germs and bacteria.  To be trapped on one of those with thousands of other people who have been travelling to and from who knows where isn't an ideal situation to me right now.  And even though the chances of getting coronavirus are still very low, getting sick on one with something else certainly is not, and with how cautious everyone is being, a repeat scenario of the SS Listeria debacle from a few years ago where people were left quarantined and ####ting in bags isn't all that unlikely.  

You're seriously more worried about this than every company on the face of the earth tracking you and knowing everywhere you go, everywhere you are.

Suuuurrrrrre. 

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

You're seriously more worried about this than every company on the face of the earth tracking you and knowing everywhere you go, everywhere you are.

Suuuurrrrrre. 

Personally, no because I will never set foot on a cruise ship.  

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Just now, Scoresman said:

Personally, no because I will never set foot on a cruise ship.  

Sounds smashingly literal. I dig it. 

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22 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

"Oh and by the way, we've started shooting victims in the head immediately after death, but that's just a precautionary measure.  Nothing to be alarmed about."

And took their livers.  For science. 

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56 minutes ago, Scoresman said:

I might be.  I just really hate cruises for a variety of reasons. 

Everybody has that one thing that they don't understand why other people like it, and cruises are that thing for me.  

Same with me and the Patriots.

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36 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I haven't yet read that article--but I firmly believe that most people in this thread are vastly underestimating how serious this virus is. It might not have a true day to day impact in our lives here in the US--but the information that the Chinese are releasing doesn't line up at all with the actions that they are taking.  The Chinese economy was sputtering before the virus came along--and they have effectively shut down some of their most major cities for a few weeks.  They are scrambling to build or resurrect a giant hospital in days to specifically treat the disease.    They have been disingenuous with how the disease is transmitted from human to human.  They knew that the disease was trasnmittable the moment doctors that were treating patients got sick but didn't say anything until much later.   I'd personally not trust any of the numbers that the Chinese government is claiming. My guess is that the number of fatalities and the number of people who have the virus is exponentially higher than what we are being told.  Just my 2 cents. 

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