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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

Yikes. We're in trouble.

I miss a lot of things from the pre-covid world, but crowded airports (especially Charlotte) aren’t one of them.  

Edited by shader
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1 minute ago, shader said:

I miss a lot of things from the pre-covid world, but crowded airports (especially Charlotte) isn’t one of them.  

Has to be a PITA if you are connecting through there and/or don't have Admirals Club.  Try chilling at Bad Daddy's or the NoDa Brewery next time you are coming through here.

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36 minutes ago, shader said:

Why not? Why would you possibly come into a coronavirus thread bragging about your wonderful weekend where you forgot the virus existed, if it wasn’t to troll.  It’s an insult to those sick/dying/quarantined/dead.

There is room for optimism in this thread too.  Not sure why that is so hard for you to understand.  Your post was what I consider trolling.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, worrierking said:

From the site:

5/20 model update: some states’ Rt have changed because we improved our testing volume adjustments.

 

This changed some states drastically.  

Guess they made some additional tweaks after the initial changes.  Thanks!  My guess is it's now more accurately accounting for total new cases and increase/decrease in testing efforts.  So, states continuing with similar numbers in new cases with decrease testing would get a "ding".  States who's numbers are going up on the same amount of testing would get a "ding".  And states who's numbers are staying the same or going down with increased testing are getting a boost.

Edited by The Commish

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48 minutes ago, shader said:

Why is this backfiring?  Backfiring would be full hospitals, or needless deaths because a cure was accomplished prior to (perhaps) end of this year.  

Seems they are doing fine.  

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Ham said:

Would you rather pee in a diaper, or in a catheter at a hospital?

There are lots of things I would do before peeing in a diaper.... pee in a bottle, pee between the doors with a barrier, pee outside literally anywhere, not go, etc.

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Can we discuss mask protocols? What are other FBGs doing? 

Previously I was wearing a rotation of a handful of N95 masks. Which was easy with as little as I had to go out. I would wear one and when done would hang on a set of hooks I set up for them. Put a chalkboard underneath that marked the date worn. Was easy to always make sure it hung for at least 7 days before wearing again. 

But now that I am working again, i will need to wear a mask more often. So will save the N95 masks for more crowded needs/higher risk and wear the KN95s for work and such. 

Wondering what a good rotation would be since I dont want to burn through them. 

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I use rt live, among other sites, to formulate an overall look. I did notice that they didnt always jibe what seemed to be happening so hopefully it's more accurate. Shocking seeing Texas where it is after not having looked at the site since before the weekend

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Does microwaving food kill it?  Get takeout and put it in the microwave for 20 seconds to heat it up and kill a virus if needed?  If the microwave does work for this, how long do you need to put it on for (on high)?  

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2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Just a thought - how many 80 year olds DON'T have major health problems?  My guess is not a lot.

1. Jack Lalanne circa 1997.
2. Betty White since 2002
3. Arnold Palmer
4. ???

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17 hours ago, Scoresman said:

People are so stupid. Wife and I took a scenic drive down highway 1 south of San Francisco. Stayed in our car the whole time because we aren’t dumb. When we got to the beach areas, it looked like it does over a 4th of July weekend. Packed with idiots. Maybe only a third had masks. Nobody 6 feet apart. All of the parking lots are closed so people were parking along the road near very clearly visible No Parking signs. It did bring a smile to my face to see the army of cops giving all of these morons parking tickets. 
 

There is so going to be a resurgence of this thing. My fear is that pressure to keep things open will win out this time and instead of a second round of SIP, the spikes in deaths will just be an acceptable reality. 

Two more weeks!

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5 hours ago, msommer said:

Per RT.Live there are now five states with R0 higher than 1. Four weeks ago four of them, TX, TN, ND and UT, were below 1.0

Whatever they are doing, it ain't working

One of the funniest things about this whole thing is that people don’t spend a single minute to understand the context of the data.  

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30 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Can we discuss mask protocols? What are other FBGs doing? 

Previously I was wearing a rotation of a handful of N95 masks. Which was easy with as little as I had to go out. I would wear one and when done would hang on a set of hooks I set up for them. Put a chalkboard underneath that marked the date worn. Was easy to always make sure it hung for at least 7 days before wearing again. 

But now that I am working again, i will need to wear a mask more often. So will save the N95 masks for more crowded needs/higher risk and wear the KN95s for work and such. 

Wondering what a good rotation would be since I dont want to burn through them. 

Does your job require an N95 or a KN95 (those should be the same except for nation of manufacture)?

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33 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Can we discuss mask protocols? What are other FBGs doing? 

Previously I was wearing a rotation of a handful of N95 masks. Which was easy with as little as I had to go out. I would wear one and when done would hang on a set of hooks I set up for them. Put a chalkboard underneath that marked the date worn. Was easy to always make sure it hung for at least 7 days before wearing again. 

But now that I am working again, i will need to wear a mask more often. So will save the N95 masks for more crowded needs/higher risk and wear the KN95s for work and such. 

Wondering what a good rotation would be since I dont want to burn through them. 

Was under impression n95 were pretty short lived. Like 12 hours of use was about max.  You lose the electrostatic capabilities fast.  

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21 minutes ago, RC94 said:

Does microwaving food kill it?  Get takeout and put it in the microwave for 20 seconds to heat it up and kill a virus if needed?  If the microwave does work for this, how long do you need to put it on for (on high)?  

You could directly eat a handful of coronavirus and not get sick.

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24 minutes ago, RC94 said:

Does microwaving food kill it?  Get takeout and put it in the microwave for 20 seconds to heat it up and kill a virus if needed?  If the microwave does work for this, how long do you need to put it on for (on high)?  

0 seconds. 

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35 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Can we discuss mask protocols? What are other FBGs doing? 

Previously I was wearing a rotation of a handful of N95 masks. Which was easy with as little as I had to go out. I would wear one and when done would hang on a set of hooks I set up for them. Put a chalkboard underneath that marked the date worn. Was easy to always make sure it hung for at least 7 days before wearing again. 

But now that I am working again, i will need to wear a mask more often. So will save the N95 masks for more crowded needs/higher risk and wear the KN95s for work and such. 

Wondering what a good rotation would be since I dont want to burn through them. 

You're a lot more regimented then I. Have a buff I wear most places but have been wearing a surgical mask lately just for ease of use. I literally don't go anywhere so leaving them sit for 3-4 days at a time happens naturally. I'm of little help. Do have a stash of KN95's but haven't felt the need to bust them out yet.

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18 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Was under impression n95 were pretty short lived. Like 12 hours of use was about max.  You lose the electrostatic capabilities fast.  

I have nowhere near 12 hours of use on any of my N95's, but would quickly get there with now daily use. 

I don't have to wear one the whole time I am working as I am mostly by myself, but 12 hours then is probably 4 days. 

Then the question becomes once you reach that threshold, how do we think they compare to a cloth mask? N95s filter 3 ways. So how do the other two compare to a cloth mask? For source control I cant fathom a way in which they are worse. 

Thoughts?

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4 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I have nowhere near 12 hours of use on any of my N95's, but would quickly get there with now daily use. 

I don't have to wear one the whole time I am working as I am mostly by myself, but 12 hours then is probably 4 days. 

Then the question becomes once you reach that threshold, how do we think they compare to a cloth mask? N95s filter 3 ways. So how do the other two compare to a cloth mask? For source control I cant fathom a way in which they are worse. 

Thoughts?

I'll look up the resources on this in a bit, I know someone on reddit ran down this very completely.  My main takeaway was that N95 lose their superpowers after about 12 hours.  At that point you are better with a cloth mask you can wash.  

To that end I'm saving mine for a situation where I am going somewhere that I know is suffering an outbreak or very likely to contain the virus (like an unscheduled trip to an ER).  

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2 hours ago, shader said:

Why not? Why would you possibly come into a coronavirus thread bragging about your wonderful weekend where you forgot the virus existed, if it wasn’t to troll.  It’s an insult to those sick/dying/quarantined/dead.

I would like to chime in to add that I had a great weekend too.  If you view that as an insult somehow, that's your problem.

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I have a hard time believing some of you are serious. There are two extremes to this pandemic. Reality is somewhere in the middle. 

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6 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Then the question becomes once you reach that threshold, how do we think they compare to a cloth mask? N95s filter 3 ways. So how do the other two compare to a cloth mask? For source control I cant fathom a way in which they are worse. 

Thoughts?

Strictly for source control -- meaning protecting others from you infecting them via "breath at a distance" -- N95s are more than overkill in most any white-collar work environment.

But the type of work you do and your work environment do matter. Are you in a medical setting? A typical white-collar desk jockey? Something else.

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1 hour ago, parasaurolophus said:

Can we discuss mask protocols? What are other FBGs doing? 

Previously I was wearing a rotation of a handful of N95 masks. Which was easy with as little as I had to go out. I would wear one and when done would hang on a set of hooks I set up for them. Put a chalkboard underneath that marked the date worn. Was easy to always make sure it hung for at least 7 days before wearing again. 

But now that I am working again, i will need to wear a mask more often. So will save the N95 masks for more crowded needs/higher risk and wear the KN95s for work and such. 

Wondering what a good rotation would be since I dont want to burn through them. 

I've been wearing the face gaiters. I have 4 I rotate and generally wash after a day of use. 

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16 hours ago, Mr. Ham said:

There’s a local drive in, which would be fun, but squeaky wheel is need to use bathroom. We have two kids, 9 and 4. It’s an easy solve for the 4 year old... use a pull-up. But why not just deploy that strategy for all of us? I’m seriously thinking of getting adult diapers for the rest of us and letting it rip in the car if we must.

That weird?

Use the bathroom, wash hands thoroughly afterwards. Use paper towel or shirt tail (or something) to open/close bathroom door if concerned. I don't see bathrooms as presenting a special COVID-19 transmission risk aside from individuals perhaps having to break a failure-to-wash-hands habit.

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On 5/24/2020 at 7:33 PM, Rohn Jambo said:

Do any of the experts work at the CDC?  

The CDC’s current “best estimates”:

  • Percent of infections that are asymptomatic: 35%
  • Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio, stratified by age: 
         0-49: 0.0005
       50-64: 0.002  
          65+: 0.013 
     Overall: 0.004

I crunched some numbers from this - using their parameters to calculate total number of deaths before herd immunity is reached - data is below.  Qc is herd immunity threshhold - that is, the proportion of population that has to be immune (assuming recovered people are actually immune), and is simply 1-1/R0.  These are extremely rough calculations done by a layperson so take it for what it's worth.  I'd also add: it's also important to not confuse R0 with Rt...R0 is a characteristic of the disease absent any mitigation efforts, Rt is the current transmission rate (with mitigation).  

My conclusion: using the CDC's best estimate, we are maybe 1/5 thru this thing running its course naturally.  And that final 4/5: it's not linear in terms of time.  Qc is an asymptote - the closer we are to reaching it, the longer it will take.  Sheltering-in-place, masks, etc does nothing to reduce the math - it only affects the time.  

As we loosen up shelter-in-place, I fully expect case counts and fatalities to rise.  It's inevitable.  

Our best approach, IMO, is to fight as hard as we can to push this out as far as possible, with minimal economic damage as we can, whatever that means.  If a vaccine is developed before herd immunity is reached, hundreds of thousands of American lives can be saved.  Fighting this thing is worth it.  

On a personal level, I very much would prefer to not be part of the 50-67% of the population that contracts COVID.  Me and mine will continue to do everything we can to keep ourselves on the "negative" side of the ledger.

Scenario 1:
R0			2
symptomatic CFR		0.002
% asymptomatic		20%
Qc			0.5
total infected	 	164,100,000 
# of symptomatic	131,280,000 
total fatalities	262,560 

Scenario 2:
R0			2
symptomatic CFR		0.002
% asymptomatic		50%
Qc			0.5
total infected	 	164,100,000 
# of symptomatic	82,050,000 
total fatalities	164,100 

Scenario 3:
R0			3
symptomatic CFR		0.01
% asymptomatic		20%
Qc			0.6667
total infected	 	218,800,000 
# of symptomatic	175,040,000 
total fatalities	1,750,400 

Scenario 4:
R0			3
symptomatic CFR		0.01
% asymptomatic		50%
Qc			0.6667
total infected	 	218,800,000 
# of symptomatic	109,400,000 
total fatalities	1,094,000 

Scenario 5:
R0			2.5
symptomatic CFR		0.004
% asymptomatic		35%
Qc			0.6
total infected	 	196,920,000 
# of symptomatic	127,998,000 
total fatalities	511,992 

 

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7 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:
3 hours ago, shader said:

Why not? Why would you possibly come into a coronavirus thread bragging about your wonderful weekend where you forgot the virus existed, if it wasn’t to troll.  It’s an insult to those sick/dying/quarantined/dead.

I would like to chime in to add that I had a great weekend too.  If you view that as an insult somehow, that's your problem.

Nah, it must've been something a little saltier than that. Whatever Noonan posted, it got nuked.

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10 minutes ago, culdeus said:

To that end I'm saving [my N95 masks] for a situation where I am going somewhere that I know is suffering an outbreak or very likely to contain the virus (like an unscheduled trip to an ER).  

:goodposting:

Exactly this. I am hard-pressed to think of common situations where workaday folks (esp. working in front of a computer 8 hrs/day) would be recommended to wear an N95.

Maybe if I were a public bus driver, or did work in a nursing home, or something like that.

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Just now, Doug B said:

Strictly for source control -- meaning protecting others from you infecting them via "breath at a distance" -- N95s are more than overkill in most any white-collar work environment.

But the type of work you do and your work environment do matter. Are you in a medical setting? A typical white-collar desk jockey? Something else.

Hard to describe since it has such a wide variety, but not medical. Luckily lots of time isolated and a decent amount of time outside. Current proposal if accepted, would have me outside upwards of 50% with no need for a mask. Most contact with people would be in a warehouse or office setting. 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I would like to chime in to add that I had a great weekend too.  If you view that as an insult somehow, that's your problem.

You don't have a negative posting history and I know you don't have an agenda in your post.  I also had a good weekend.  But just like it would be bad form to walk into a thread on a natural disaster and say "hey guys I don't know about all of you but I had a great weekend and never thought about the tragedy", it's poor form here. But again, posting history matters.

Edited by shader
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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

1. Jack Lalanne circa 1997.
2. Betty White since 2002
3. Arnold Palmer
4. ???

Even Jack LaLanne died of respiratory failure due to pneumonia.  If Jack's body gives in, does the average octogenarian have a fighting chance? 

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15 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Nah, it must've been something a little saltier than that. Whatever Noonan posted, it got nuked.

I shouldn't respond.  It's on me.  I really, really wish the ignore feature would hide the ability to even view the post, because at times I get curious and view it, which is not smart.  I apologize for clouding the thread with this.  I just have very little patience for those that act as if this isn't a big deal.  It boggles my mind and it's difficult to put into words how disrespectful I find it.  But I have to learn to live with it, or I'll pollute the thread.  So I'll force myself to avoid those that I need to avoid.  Again, my apologies to the board for side-tracking us.

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28 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I'll look up the resources on this in a bit, I know someone on reddit ran down this very completely.  My main takeaway was that N95 lose their superpowers after about 12 hours.  At that point you are better with a cloth mask you can wash.  

To that end I'm saving mine for a situation where I am going somewhere that I know is suffering an outbreak or very likely to contain the virus (like an unscheduled trip to an ER).  

According to this it seems like recharging an N95 is as simple as steeping in hot water and then blow drying for 10 minutes. That seems far too easy. 

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23 minutes ago, shader said:
41 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Nah, it must've been something a little saltier than that. Whatever Noonan posted, it got nuked.

I shouldn't respond.  It's on me. 

Looks like your response got nuked, too.

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27 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Even Jack LaLanne died of respiratory failure due to pneumonia.

Yeah, at age 96. But JL refused to go to the doctor for a week, and kept up his daily workouts until the day before he died.

(I was kinda jesting with that list of ageless wonders, though :D  Couldn't go George Burns because of the stogies)

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32 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

According to this it seems like recharging an N95 is as simple as steeping in hot water and then blow drying for 10 minutes. That seems far too easy. 

Look at the caption, though -- N95s reconditioned that way are meant for household use, not medical use (except I guess in a dire pinch).

Up until the week before Easter, I had been using the same N95 for all my out-of-the-house errands for about a month. I was leaving the mask on my dashboard and parking it in the sun in 80o+ F heat. While I'm confident that any virus on the mask was nuked ... the constant sun was heck on the mask's elastic loops. The last time I wore that mask, it was so loose that moved to and fro with every breath through my nose.

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Just now, parasaurolophus said:

Anybody listen to Osterholm's podcast?

I thought his May 20th episode 9 was very interesting. 

(Don't take this the wrong way -- I'm only using your post as an example. A lot of people are doing this.)

If you want to cite info from a video or a podcast -- something that will take some real time to consume (more than a minute or two) -- please consider leaving a summarization of the main points along with a link. Or at least Google-able terms to find the video/podcast.

Chet linked a video yesterday and said something like "there's good information here". Maybe there is. Maybe there isn't. But don't assume that any great percentage of readers are going to be able or willing to devote however much time to sit through a video (same with podcasts). Lay out whatever the "good information" or "very interesting thing" is, and leave the link for those who seek to dig deeper.

With traditional text links, even if the linked page is wordy and long, CTRL+F can help the reader go straight to the important bits. So far as I'm aware, that's not possible yet with videos or podcasts. Having to sit through 20 minutes or so (which seems typical) just means whatever good information is there gets passed over that much more often.

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52 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Use the bathroom, wash hands thoroughly afterwards. Use paper towel or shirt tail (or something) to open/close bathroom door if concerned. I don't see bathrooms as presenting a special COVID-19 transmission risk aside from individuals perhaps having to break a failure-to-wash-hands habit.

Ironically, I just got off a call discussing the cleanliness of bathrooms in public place and large office buildings. Bathrooms are traditionally the dirtiest rooms in any building. One of the things I didn't realize is when you flush a toilet it gives off thousands of droplets (toilet plume...quit laughing). Use your imagination, and yea it's a stretch but if an infected person makes a deposit, flushes, plumes, walks around...well it can spread form a bathroom is all I'm saying. Put the lid down before you flush if it's not an open seat.

35 minutes ago, shader said:

But again, posting history matters.

Indeed

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13 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Look at the caption, though -- N95s reconditioned that way are meant for household use, not medical use (except I guess in a dire pinch).

Up until the week before Easter, I had been using the same N95 for all my out-of-the-house errands for about a month. I was leaving the mask on my dashboard and parking it in the sun in 80o+ F heat. While I'm confident that any virus on the mask was nuked ... the constant sun was heck on the mask's elastic loops. The last time I wore that mask, it was so loose that moved to and fro with every breath through my nose.

Sure, but isn’t that what all of us would be using them for? I’m assuming in the context of the article, it simply means that a) medical professionals should try to hold to a higher standard, especially since they would likely be exposed to a higher viral load and b) medical professionals have access to equipment that is more effective and quicker than what normal folks have access too.

I don’t think it’s a question of the method not working for household use, although let’s be clear: the objective best practice is for them to be one time use. That’s just not feasible for most right now though.

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5 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Ironically, I just got off a call discussing the cleanliness of bathrooms in public place and large office buildings. Bathrooms are traditionally the dirtiest rooms in any building. One of the things I didn't realize is when you flush a toilet it gives off thousands of droplets (toilet plume...quit laughing). Use your imagination, and yea it's a stretch but if an infected person makes a deposit, flushes, plumes, walks around...well it can spread form a bathroom is all I'm saying. Put the lid down before you flush if it's not an open seat.

Indeed

Fecal spread is a very very low probability..  yes there was a study.. 

I'll see if I can find it :)

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Use the bathroom, wash hands thoroughly afterwards. Use paper towel or shirt tail (or something) to open/close bathroom door if concerned. I don't see bathrooms as presenting a special COVID-19 transmission risk aside from individuals perhaps having to break a failure-to-wash-hands habit.

I consider public/workplace bathrooms to be a higher than average risk area in terms of potential respiratory droplets; they're small rooms with minimal airflow that lots of people visit.

ETA - I wasn't even factoring in the dreaded toilet flume.

Edited by NotSmart

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4 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

One of the things I didn't realize is when you flush a toilet it gives off thousands of droplets (toilet plume...quit laughing). Use your imagination, and yea it's a stretch but if an infected person makes a deposit, flushes, plumes, walks around...well it can spread form a bathroom is all I'm saying.

I'm willing to say that the risk of COVID-19 transmission strictly from a flushed toilet is virtually nil. That's to say nothing about other grossness, though. Try not to hang out in the toilet plume, if at all possible (someone needs to invent the time-delay flush, huh?). And try to avoid deep, top-of-the-Matterhorn "Ricola!" cleansing breaths while flushing until you can get clear.

If you ever watched Mythbusters back in the day ... their "flushed toilet droplets" episode was one of their most famous broadcasts.

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7 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:
24 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Look at the caption, though -- N95s reconditioned that way are meant for household use, not medical use (except I guess in a dire pinch).

Up until the week before Easter, I had been using the same N95 for all my out-of-the-house errands for about a month. I was leaving the mask on my dashboard and parking it in the sun in 80o+ F heat. While I'm confident that any virus on the mask was nuked ... the constant sun was heck on the mask's elastic loops. The last time I wore that mask, it was so loose that moved to and fro with every breath through my nose.

Sure, but isn’t that what all of us would be using them for?

Agreed. But parasaurolophus didn't point that out in his post.

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7 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Sure, but isn’t that what all of us would be using them for? I’m assuming in the context of the article, it simply means that a) medical professionals should try to hold to a higher standard, especially since they would likely be exposed to a higher viral load and b) medical professionals have access to equipment that is more effective and quicker than what normal folks have access too.

I don’t think it’s a question of the method not working for household use, although let’s be clear: the objective best practice is for them to be one time use. That’s just not feasible for most right now though.

Why not?  

I can save mine for a certain risk situation like having to transport a sick family member when not symptomatic. Or a broken arm type deal.  

Using for a grocery run is not common sense, nor is buying enough where such a thing can happen is. 

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3 minutes ago, NotSmart said:

I consider public/workplace bathrooms to be a higher than average risk area in terms of potential respiratory droplets; they're small rooms with minimal airflow that lots of people visit.

My best counterpoint is that exposure time is pretty limited. I don't know ... I can't say you're wrong.

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12 minutes ago, belljr said:

Fecal spread is a very very low probability..  yes there was a study.. 

I'll see if I can find it :)

I believe you and really, I'm good. Don't look :D

8 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I'm willing to say that the risk of COVID-19 transmission strictly from a flushed toilet is virtually nil. That's to say nothing about other grossness, though. Try not to hang out in the toilet plume, if at all possible (someone needs to invent the time-delay flush, huh?). And try to avoid deep, top-of-the-Matterhorn "Ricola!" cleansing breaths while flushing until you can get clear.

If you ever watched Mythbusters back in the day ... their "flushed toilet droplets" episode was one of their most famous broadcasts.

Yea I :lmao: then I kinda :X a little bit

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