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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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1 hour ago, Senor Schmutzig said:

I would be interested in knowing what sort of precautions are being made and what the reaction of the adults are (are some hesitant? Others okay with it?)

I had one parent who was hesitant and I am not sure they will be on board but as of yesterday they are in for the tournament.  I told all parents that we won't be sharing equipment so kids need to make sure they bring their own bats, gloves, catching gear etc.  I will also bring hand sanitizer and wipes for the kids.  We will stress for the kids to keep distance from each other during practice.  I am not sure what precautions the tournament will have just yet.  I imagine no shaking hands after game.  It is 110 degrees today so top hot for kids to wear masks.

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

Just got my son a black market haircut from a guy running shop out of a dentist's office. 

2020 y'all 

Was the password "bowl cut"?

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31 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I thought I saw it is not transmittable via sweat. More so the close proximity and breathing. 

Not sure but tbh, I don't have a lot of confidence we know what transmits it and what doesn't with complete confidence.  It sucks not knowing the risk level.

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1 hour ago, I-ROK said:

So the CDC is wrong now?

Everyone loved the CDC before... but now that they are saying things we don’t like, they’re full of it? Got it

They’ve been a bit inconsistent over the past few weeks.  I can’t recall them doing anything that “I loved”. They’ve arguably been far worse than the WHO.

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2 minutes ago, East Coast Bias said:

Went to a restaurant tonight. Felt good to get out.

Amazing the things we took for granted before.  

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, The Commish said:

I guess I got to this thread after this discussion.  Read a bit about it, but I don't see how it answers the question I was posing.  Can you help me out?  If, in one breath, the CDC is saying they lack confidence in antibody testing results to make any sort of policy decisions based on them, then in the next breath throw out "death rate" stats based on antibody testing, how does this rule apply to that?  This theorem seems to be about forecasting stats.  That's not really what  I am asking about.  :confused: 

Bayes rule is for populations within populations.  In this case: the population of false positives within the population of infected.

Assume the following:

330M Americans 

5% incidence of infection 

95% accurate test (i.e. 5% false positive)

All Americans tested

 

The results would show:

15,675,000 true positives (330M x 5% actual infected x 95% accuracy)

15,675,000 false positives (330M x 95% uninfected x 5% inaccuracy)

That means the test shows 31,350,00 total infected, but we know only half of them are ACTUALLY infected.  

Now, if you received a positive result, how confident are you the you ACTUALLY had Covid?  Hint: barring any other info your answer s/b: no more than 50/50.

However, if we know the accuracy of the test we can work backward to estimate the incidence of Covid within the overall population.  Problem is that we can't determine with more than 50% accuracy whether any particular individual actually had Covid.

Notably, as the actual incidence of Covid increases the confidence of that any individual had it increases dramatically.  To wit, run the math for the above but change the actual incidence from 5% to 30%.

THAT'S Bayes Rule.

That help?

Edited by Morton Muffley

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13 minutes ago, shader said:

Amazing the things we took for granted before.  

We have a drive up graduation ceremony tonight for my oldest - they will have a ceremony in July if possible but he will at least get his diploma tonight.

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20 minutes ago, Morton Muffley said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bayes rule is for populations within populations.  In this case: the population of false positives within the population of infected.

Assume the following:

330M Americans 

5% incidence of infection 

95% accurate test (i.e. 5% false positive)

All Americans tested

 

The results would show:

15,675,000 true positives (330M x 5% actual infected x 95% accuracy)

15,675,000 false positives (330M x 95% uninfected x 5% inaccuracy)

That means the test shows 31,350,00 total infected, but we know only half of them are ACTUALLY infected.  

Now, if you received a positive result, how confident are you the you ACTUALLY had Covid?  Hint: barring any other info your answer s/b: no more than 50/50.

However, if we know the accuracy of the test we can work backward to estimate the incidence of Covid within the overall population.  Problem is that we can't determine with more than 50% accuracy whether any particular individual actually had Covid.

Notably, as the actual incidence of Covid increases the confidence of that any individual had it increases dramatically.  To wit, run the math for the above but change the actual incidence from 5% to 30%.

THAT'S Bayes Rule.

That help?

Yes...it explains the 50/50 portion.  Thanks :thumbup: 

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12 hours ago, Kal El said:

Question: if this virus truly is seasonal, and supposedly susceptible to warmer weather, shouldn't case numbers be dropping even with increased testing?

If we were testing 500k people every day back in Jan, Feb, Mar, there probably would have been 50k cases per day.  

Also, the data is not very good.

Some states include antibody results

Some states include multiple tests on the same person

Some states are doing more focused testing since testing capacity has increased such as prisons that have high positive %

Lags from weekend reporting and massive data dumps

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16 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I would love to know where these people latched onto this made up false sense of security thing. It is like arguing we shouldnt have air bags because people will drive faster then. 

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11 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

Which season occurs simultaneously in the US and Brazil?

:mellow:

Is it getting warmer or colder in Brazil?

Is it getting warmer or colder in the US?

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4 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I would love to know where these people latched onto this made up false sense of security thing. It is like arguing we shouldnt have air bags because people will drive faster then. 

Media can make the sheep do anything.

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6 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I would love to know where these people latched onto this made up false sense of security thing. It is like arguing we shouldnt have air bags because people will drive faster then. 

Not a good analogy.

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14 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Yes...it explains the 50/50 portion.  Thanks :thumbup: 

As for the CDC mixed messages portion, I wish someone had some answers on that.

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2 hours ago, msommer said:

0.26% - what a crock. The numbers still don't add up

I was wrong for my prediction also it happens it is actually much lower than .26.  I just got caught up with the hype.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

So you think the media convinced doctors of this?

Media is a powerful so yes 

Drs are people to.  Easily manipulated.

Edited by bucksoh

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+25k cases in the US today and +1200 deaths. 
 

Brazil and the world both also setting new highs in cases.  

 

 

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11 minutes ago, shader said:

+25k cases in the US today and +1200 deaths. 
 

Brazil and the world both also setting new highs in cases.  

 

 

Yeesh - per Covid worldometers, a new high of over 125,000 cases along with almost 4,900 deaths.  Worldwide reported cases now over 6 million.  As you mention, Brazil at a new high with almost 30,000 new cases (and almost 1,200 deaths).  Russia, India, and Peru not slowing down at all.   

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I also saw this at the end of an article in the Sunday Chicago Tribune:

"Latin America is the latest epicenter of the virus, and experts note the limits of government action in a region where millions have informal jobs and many police forces are unable to enforce restrictions.

Brazil and Mexico reported record numbers of infections and deaths almost daily last week, fueling criticism of their presidents for limited lockdowns.  But infections also rose and intensive care unit were swamped in Peru, Chile and Ecuador, all countries lauded for imposing early and aggressive business shutdowns and quarantines."

 

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56 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I would love to know where these people latched onto this made up false sense of security thing. It is like arguing we shouldnt have air bags because people will drive faster then. 

The people who try and downplay the effectiveness of masks are the same ones who say "just wash your hands and you'll be fine". 

Guess what? If everyone washed their hands like my 3 year old does, a lot of people would still get sick. You have to wash your hands appropriately to effectively reduce your risk, and you have to do the same when wearing masks. Not sure why one gets nitpicked while the other gets taken for granted. 

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59 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

:mellow:

Is it getting warmer or colder in Brazil?

Is it getting warmer or colder in the US?

Warmer in the US, colder in Brazil. That's how seasons in different hemispheres work.

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And away we go...it is like every time at this hour of night the same usual suspects begin crawling out from under rocks with their flat earth. it is just the flu and a missile took down the Twin Tower nonsense. 

I can’t figure out if this is just when their moms lets them use the Internet or this is when the alcohol kicks in. 😔

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1 hour ago, Kal El said:

Warmer in the US, colder in Brazil. That's how seasons in different hemispheres work.

whoah, whoah, slow down egghead

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1 hour ago, joffer said:

whoah, whoah, slow down egghead

It's honestly a bit disturbing how many people don't realize that.

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24 minutes ago, Kal El said:

It's honestly a bit disturbing how many people don't realize that.

Wait, I thought the earth was flat?   Why would there be different seasons in different hemispheres?  Sounds like a pro-sphere hoax.

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11 hours ago, I-ROK said:

So the CDC is wrong now?

Everyone loved the CDC before... but now that they are saying things we don’t like, they’re full of it? Got it

You should read the thread more and this might not come as a surprise

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, shader said:

+25k cases in the US today and +1200 deaths. 
 

Brazil and the world both also setting new highs in cases.  

 

 

8 countries in the top 20 are warm and humid (Brazil, India, Turkey, Peru, Saudi, Mexico, Pakistan and Qatar) and most of those are surging up the list

Edited by msommer

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8 hours ago, Kal El said:

Warmer in the US, colder in Brazil. That's how seasons in different hemispheres work.

It's just importatnt to know that colder doesn't mean cold. I've spent many happy days at the beach in Brazilian winter with 80F. It gets colder than that in the south and on an overcast day

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2 hours ago, msommer said:

It's just importatnt to know that colder doesn't mean cold. I've spent many happy days at the beach in Brazilian winter with 80F. It gets colder than that in the south and on an overcast day

True enough, a cold day here in Florida is often when the temp doesn't break 70. People breaking out the wind jackets, there's somebody with a parka, it's strange to see.

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10 hours ago, Courtjester said:

And away we go...it is like every time at this hour of night the same usual suspects begin crawling out from under rocks with their flat earth. it is just the flu and a missile took down the Twin Tower nonsense. 

I can’t figure out if this is just when their moms lets them use the Internet or this is when the alcohol kicks in. 😔

Have a few of these in my social media feeds. The weird thing is, these are the people calling everyone "sheep" and railing against "the media" and whatnot, yet like clockwork the same six people seem to consistently come up with the same talking points and memes at the same times. Weird how these independent thinkers (who were all dumb kids in school) grew up to be epidemiologists and constitutional scholars. Somehow through their own investigative research they all unearth the same truths at the same moments. What are the odds?

 

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12 hours ago, bucksoh said:

Media is a powerful so yes 

Drs are people to.  Easily manipulated.

 

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Have a few of these in my social media feeds. The weird thing is, these are the people calling everyone "sheep" and railing against "the media" and whatnot, yet like clockwork the same six people seem to consistently come up with the same talking points and memes at the same times. Weird how these independent thinkers (who were all dumb kids in school) grew up to be epidemiologists and constitutional scholars. Somehow through their own investigative research they all unearth the same truths at the same moments. What are the odds?

I have a lot of people on my Facebook feed who are complete wingnuts.  I think Wisconsin might have a disproportionate amount of them.  They truly believe that they are enlightened and can see truths that are invisible to the rest of us.  I might even ask a couple of them to block me because, like passing a gruesome car accident, I cannot stop myself from looking at their posts.  But it's infuriating.  Here are a couple of posts from the last couple of days from a particularly vocal nutjob on my feed.  And I like the guy a lot in person.

Quote

New allegations are surfacing that there's a George Floyd named in the '16 Wikileaks emails detailing money laundering schemes, and the belief is that his murder was as an intentional act to protect those involved, and to create a divide in the public.

Is it true? Don't know, but it sure is not adding up thinking of all the strange occurrences, and even the odd 'coincidences' surrounding the details between the relationship of Mr. Floyd and his murderer ex officer Chauvin.

Quote

I'm probably not going to be the most popular person in the room expressing this...

Is George Floyd even dead? Or was he an actor taking part in a staged event? Is he the Wikileaks dude named for laundering money?

Is any of this real? How deep is the rabbit hole?

This was tried multiple times before like with the Jussie Smollett hoax, the Epstein prison death, the Indian actor with the Covington Kids, and countless others.. why wouldn't the CIA conscript cops into their games?

 

Edited by Don Hutson

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30 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

I have a lot of people on my Facebook feed who are complete wingnuts.  I think Wisconsin might have a disproportionate amount of them.  They truly believe that they are enlightened and can see truths that are invisible to the rest of us.  I might even ask a couple of them to block me because, like passing a gruesome car accident, I cannot stop myself from looking at their posts.  But it's infuriating.  Here are a couple of posts from the last couple of days from a particularly vocal nutjob on my feed.  And I like the guy a lot in person.

 

whoa :popcorn:

No way do I have this person block me. That is some free entertainment right there.

I s there a previous connection between Floyd/Chauvin ? :tinfoilhat:

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, prosopis said:

whoa :popcorn:

No way do I have this person block me. That is some free entertainment right there.

I s there a previous connection between Floyd/Chauvin ? :tinfoilhat:

Floyd and Chauvin worked at the same bar at the same time.  But it was a huge bar and one worked outside and one worked inside.  My guess is that Chauvin didn't recognize Floyd.  But even if he did, the rest of the conclusions are completely insane.  I had fun reading this guy's posts for a couple of years.  But now it aggravates me.  But I can't stop.

Edited by Don Hutson
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Posted (edited)

Looking at worldometer for each state's deaths per case...

- USA overall 5.8% (104562/1795278)
- MI (9.5%) and CT (9.3%) are by far the hardest hit in terms of deaths per case
- No states are in the 8% range
- NY (7.9%), PA (7.3%), NJ (7.2%), LA (7.1%), and MA (7.0%) are the only states in the 7% range
- IN (6.3%) and OH (6.2%) are the only states in the 6% range
- CO, MO, VT (5.6%), NH (5.3%), OK (5.2%), WA (5.1%), and NV (5.0%) are the states in the 5% range
- AZ, MD, MS (4.8%), RI (4.7%), NM (4.6%), IL (4.5%), FL, KY (4.4%), GA, MN, SC (4.3%) are the states in the 4% range
- CA, DE (3.9%), ME, WV (3.8%), OR (3.7%), AL (3.6%), MT, NC (3.4%), WI (3.2%), VA (3.1%) are the states in the 3% range
- ID (2.9%), IA (2.8%), TX (2.7%), HI (2.6%), AK, ND (2.3%), KS (2.2%) are the states in the 2% range
- AR (1.9%), WY (1.7%), TN (1.6%), NE, SD, UT (1.2%) are the states in the 1% range

I find it hard to believe this virus is nearly 8 times more deadly in Michigan and Connecticut than it is in Nebraska, South Dakota, or Utah.  So, what are some possible factors for disparities among the states?

And yes, I know me saying 8 times more deadly is not accurate, so please don't nitpick about it.  I wrote it for effect.

Edited by TheWinz

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9 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Looking at worldometer for each state's deaths per case...

- USA overall 5.8% (104562/1795278)
- MI (9.5%) and CT (9.3%) are by far the hardest hit in terms of deaths per case
- No states are in the 8% range
- NY (7.9%), PA (7.3%), NJ (7.2%), LA (7.1%), and MA (7.0%) are the only states in the 7% range
- IN (6.3%) and OH (6.2%) are the only states in the 6% range
- CO, MO, VT (5.6%), NH (5.3%), OK (5.2%), WA (5.1%), and NV (5.0%) are the states in the 5% range
- AZ, MD, MS (4.8%), RI (4.7%), NM (4.6%), IL (4.5%), FL, KY (4.4%), GA, MN, SC (4.3%) are the states in the 4% range
- CA, DE (3.9%), ME, WV (3.8%), OR (3.7%), AL (3.6%), MT, NC (3.4%), WI (3.2%), VA (3.1%) are the states in the 3% range
- ID (2.9%), IA (2.8%), TX (2.7%), HI (2.6%), AK, ND (2.3%), KS (2.2%) are the states in the 2% range
- AR (1.9%), WY (1.7%), TN (1.6%), NE, SD, UT (1.2%) are the states in the 1% range

I find it hard to believe this virus is nearly 8 times more deadly in Michigan and Connecticut than it is in Nebraska, South Dakota, or Utah.  So, what are some possible factors for disparities among the states?

And yes, I know me saying 8 times more deadly is not accurate, so please don't nitpick about it.  I wrote it for effect.

Nursing homes.  There needs to be some filter for nursing home deaths when comparing states.  As soon as this thing gets loose in one of those it's lights out.  

 

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4 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Looking at worldometer for each state's deaths per case...

- USA overall 5.8% (104562/1795278)
- MI (9.5%) and CT (9.3%) are by far the hardest hit in terms of deaths per case
- No states are in the 8% range
- NY (7.9%), PA (7.3%), NJ (7.2%), LA (7.1%), and MA (7.0%) are the only states in the 7% range
- IN (6.3%) and OH (6.2%) are the only states in the 6% range
- CO, MO, VT (5.6%), NH (5.3%), OK (5.2%), WA (5.1%), and NV (5.0%) are the states in the 5% range
- AZ, MD, MS (4.8%), RI (4.7%), NM (4.6%), IL (4.5%), FL, KY (4.4%), GA, MN, SC (4.3%) are the states in the 4% range
- CA, DE (3.9%), ME, WV (3.8%), OR (3.7%), AL (3.6%), MT, NC (3.4%), WI (3.2%), VA (3.1%) are the states in the 3% range
- ID (2.9%), IA (2.8%), TX (2.7%), HI (2.6%), AK, ND (2.3%), KS (2.2%) are the states in the 2% range
- AR (1.9%), WY (1.7%), TN (1.6%), NE, SD, UT (1.2%) are the states in the 1% range

I find it hard to believe this virus is nearly 8 times more deadly in Michigan and Connecticut than it is in Nebraska, South Dakota, or Utah.  So, what are some possible factors for disparities among the states?

And yes, I know me saying 8 times more deadly is not accurate, so please don't nitpick about it.  I wrote it for effect.

Perhaps population density is a factor? Maybe urban residents aren't as healthy as rural residents? Or maybe the virus spreads so quickly in urban areas that it overwhelms the health care system, increasing the chances that a person will die?

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13 hours ago, Kal El said:

Warmer in the US, colder in Brazil. That's how seasons in different hemispheres work.

Can you inform Terminalxylem of that?

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3 minutes ago, culdeus said:
17 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Looking at worldometer for each state's deaths per case...

- USA overall 5.8% (104562/1795278)
- MI (9.5%) and CT (9.3%) are by far the hardest hit in terms of deaths per case
- No states are in the 8% range
- NY (7.9%), PA (7.3%), NJ (7.2%), LA (7.1%), and MA (7.0%) are the only states in the 7% range
- IN (6.3%) and OH (6.2%) are the only states in the 6% range
- CO, MO, VT (5.6%), NH (5.3%), OK (5.2%), WA (5.1%), and NV (5.0%) are the states in the 5% range
- AZ, MD, MS (4.8%), RI (4.7%), NM (4.6%), IL (4.5%), FL, KY (4.4%), GA, MN, SC (4.3%) are the states in the 4% range
- CA, DE (3.9%), ME, WV (3.8%), OR (3.7%), AL (3.6%), MT, NC (3.4%), WI (3.2%), VA (3.1%) are the states in the 3% range
- ID (2.9%), IA (2.8%), TX (2.7%), HI (2.6%), AK, ND (2.3%), KS (2.2%) are the states in the 2% range
- AR (1.9%), WY (1.7%), TN (1.6%), NE, SD, UT (1.2%) are the states in the 1% range

I find it hard to believe this virus is nearly 8 times more deadly in Michigan and Connecticut than it is in Nebraska, South Dakota, or Utah.  So, what are some possible factors for disparities among the states?

And yes, I know me saying 8 times more deadly is not accurate, so please don't nitpick about it.  I wrote it for effect.

Nursing homes.  There needs to be some filter for nursing home deaths when comparing states.  As soon as this thing gets loose in one of those it's lights out.  

Nursing homes are probably a factor, although Rhode Island, Arkansas and Iowa have some of the highest percentages of residents in nursing homes, yet they don't have correspondingly high death rates. Meanwhile, Nevada, Washington and Colorado have relatively low percentages of residents in nursing homes, yet they're all over 5%.

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2 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:
13 hours ago, Kal El said:

Warmer in the US, colder in Brazil. That's how seasons in different hemispheres work.

Can you inform Terminalxylem of that?

You claimed that the coronavirus was seasonal like the flu.

@Terminalxylem was trying to politely explain to you that your theory is flawed because the virus is simultaneously spreading globally despite the fact that seasons are different.

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Just now, [scooter] said:

You claimed that the coronavirus was seasonal like the flu.

@Terminalxylem was trying to politely explain to you that your theory is flawed because the virus is simultaneously spreading globally despite the fact that seasons are different.

Do any of you actually research this virus or only get your information from The NY Times and CNN?  

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17 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Nursing homes.  There needs to be some filter for nursing home deaths when comparing states.  As soon as this thing gets loose in one of those it's lights out.  

I considered this at the top of the factors, along with density.  Just seems weird that CT sits at 9.3% and RI is at 4.7%.  I actually live in CT, but just a few miles from the RI border.  RI ranks behind only NJ in population density.  Maybe CT isn't testing young healthy people at nearly the rate of other states?  Stands to reason if all your positive cases are sick old people, your percentage is going way up.

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This week has gotta be the most darkest timeline in recent years 

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Remember in January when world war 3 almost  broke out?

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16 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Do any of you actually research this virus or only get your information from The NY Times and CNN?  

We listen to the doctors, not Trump or Fox News. Or CNN, at least in my case.

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