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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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7 minutes ago, wazoo11 said:

Remember in January when world war 3 almost  broke out?

That seems like ancient history. I can barely remember Christmas, that feels like a decade ago now.

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14 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

I also saw this at the end of an article in the Sunday Chicago Tribune:

"Latin America is the latest epicenter of the virus, and experts note the limits of government action in a region where millions have informal jobs and many police forces are unable to enforce restrictions.

Brazil and Mexico reported record numbers of infections and deaths almost daily last week, fueling criticism of their presidents for limited lockdowns.  But infections also rose and intensive care unit were swamped in Peru, Chile and Ecuador, all countries lauded for imposing early and aggressive business shutdowns and quarantines."

 

...and now I read reports on projected rainfall in southern Mexico and throughout Central America that could be as much as two feet, leading to massive flooding and mud slides. 

Cyclones hitting India and Bangladesh; a potential locust plague across East Central Africa; massive rainfalls in Central America - all on top of the Covid risk.  We're living through some incredibly difficult times, as noted above.

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13 hours ago, Courtjester said:

And away we go...it is like every time at this hour of night the same usual suspects begin crawling out from under rocks with their flat earth. it is just the flu and a missile took down the Twin Tower nonsense. 

I can’t figure out if this is just when their moms lets them use the Internet or this is when the alcohol kicks in. 😔

The better option must be for people who spend all day on the Internet ignoring their family, ignoring their health, ignoring everything else productive adults are supposed to do, being unemployed or simply a lazy employee.

 

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1 hour ago, [scooter] said:

Nursing homes are probably a factor, although Rhode Island, Arkansas and Iowa have some of the highest percentages of residents in nursing homes, yet they don't have correspondingly high death rates. Meanwhile, Nevada, Washington and Colorado have relatively low percentages of residents in nursing homes, yet they're all over 5%.

I don't think this matters.  What you are saying is those states protect their vulnerable better.   There's not some magic powder that can be sprinkled in the morning metamucil

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3 minutes ago, culdeus said:
1 hour ago, [scooter] said:

Nursing homes are probably a factor, although Rhode Island, Arkansas and Iowa have some of the highest percentages of residents in nursing homes, yet they don't have correspondingly high death rates. Meanwhile, Nevada, Washington and Colorado have relatively low percentages of residents in nursing homes, yet they're all over 5%.

I don't think this matters.  What you are saying is those states protect their vulnerable better.   There's not some magic powder that can be sprinkled in the morning metamucil

Well then, that would mean that the answer to the original question is "those states protect the vulnerable better", not "those states have lots of nursing homes" (which seems to have been your original response).

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Just now, [scooter] said:

Well then, that would mean that the answer to the original question is "those states protect the vulnerable better", not "those states have lots of nursing homes" (which seems to have been your original response).

Nursing home *deaths

The population doesn't concern me. And no I don't know how to get the exact figures per state of LTC death rate.  I'm just guessing based on the info we do have.  

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12 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Nursing home *deaths

The population doesn't concern me. And no I don't know how to get the exact figures per state of LTC death rate.  I'm just guessing based on the info we do have.  

The more I crunch the data, the more I believe the high percentage for Connecticut (I can't speak on Michigan) is due to WHO we are testing, not necessarily the lack of care for the elderly.  We are testing the crap out of our nursing homes now.

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Posted (edited)

The riots breaking out in so many cities is really dangerous for the spread.  Many have masks on but many don’t.  And though I haven’t seen CDC or WHO guidance on whether screaming and yelling is bad for the spread, I’m going to assume an angry protester at a super spreader stage could cause some major hot spots.  
 

Definitely don’t want to get into the politics or issues of the protests, but when you strictly look at the covid-19 impacts, it’s not good. Hopefully (for many reasons) they end soon.

Edit:  even now I was looking at twitter/periscope and I see very peaceful protests in Cincinnati, Philly and Austin taking place right now.  

Edited by shader

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4 minutes ago, shader said:

The riots breaking out in so many cities is really dangerous for the spread.  Many have masks on but many don’t.  And though I haven’t seen CDC or WHO guidance on whether screaming and yelling is bad for the spread, I’m going to assume an angry protester at a super spreader stage could cause some major hot spots.  
 

Definitely don’t want to get into the politics or issues of the protests, but when you strictly look at the covid-19 impacts, it’s not good. Hopefully (for many reasons) they end soon.

I posted a link previously to a study that showed droplet expulsion based on different volumes of speaking. I don't think you need to wait for the CDC and WHO. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I posted a link previously to a study that showed droplet expulsion based on different volumes of speaking. I don't think you need to wait for the CDC and WHO. 

Yeah I was kind of joking.  I don’t recall your study, but I’d assume it’s bad. I know that singing in church is really really bad for spread, so I’m going to assume these chants are as well.  Just now clicking through and seeing Columbus, Salt Lake as well.  
 

Very traditional protests, but walking in big groups and chanting is a recipe for quick spread.

I think the quarantines have people restless and perhaps people are ready to break out and feel this is an important cause. But man it’s bad news for the virus spread....

Edited by shader

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2 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

...and now I read reports on projected rainfall in southern Mexico and throughout Central America that could be as much as two feet, leading to massive flooding and mud slides. 

Cyclones hitting India and Bangladesh; a potential locust plague across East Central Africa; massive rainfalls in Central America - all on top of the Covid risk.  We're living through some incredibly difficult times, as noted above.

Heck, maybe these are the end times.

If so, I’ve had sex, eaten Chinese food, drank plenty of beer, have heard my 3 kids belly laughs, watched them smile for the first time, run three marathons, and watched the Royals and Chiefs win championships in my lifetime, as have my kids.

I’m pretty confident my wife still loves me since she just left to buy me some more beer. I think I’m good.

:banned:

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1 hour ago, shader said:

I don’t recall your study, but I’d assume it’s bad.

Listen here! 

(Just kidding i know what you meant) 

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49 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

An old article, but very common sensy

Didnt even see it was april 23. It popped up in my twitter feed today. 

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holy crap Brazil 😢

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Just received an email from a friend of mine. He's a cardiologist, who just happened to take a 6 month sabbatical starting in December. The original plan was to travel through Europe then Asia with his wife and kids. That was quickly short-circuited, so they abbreviated the European segment and hightailed it to Korea (his wife is Korean). Anyway, here is an excerpt from his message:

Quote

Thanks for the local update... it is weird times.  COVID has made me think about how we are so connected to each other, and how the health of the masses relates to our personal health.  There was a recent outbreak here in Seoul at a gay bar, and they traced it back to a private tutor who was giving after school classes illegally.  Anyways, the gay bar had multiple people infected.  Also, one of his students became infected, and he infected a person who was in the delivery business dropping something off to this person’s home.  Then, the worker spread it unknowingly to a bunch of people at his delivery company.  Schools, bars, and clubs which had recently reopened are all closed again.  The tracing was pretty incredible.  Also, I think the importance of public health really points to the need for universal healthcare...

 I will be back around 6/18 and will be quarantining somewhere for two weeks.  (My clinic) restart will be on 7/6, and clinic is now >50% by remote access.  I wonder if we can even work from home one day!  Anyways, cath cases have dramatically decreased, which is probably a good thing anyways for pts... 

A few things I thought were interesting, reinforcing things we've already touched upon:

1. Korea is way more on top of this than most other place in the world, largely because they have employed tried and truth public health measures like widespread testing and contact tracing.

2. I don't know the age of the student, but I'm sure kids and young people will be playing a significant role in C-19 resurging when schools, bars, clubs reopen...regardless of how mildly it affects them.

3. Because our healthcare system is largely financed by elective procedures, the people who do those procedures are incentivized to do a lot, whether they are needed are not. Cardiac stress tests are a great example. Because they are ordered in low risk patients (where disease prevalence is low, remember Baye's theorem?) a lot of false positives result, followed by unnecessary cardiac catheterizations. Thankfully, there are some good doctors out there, who place their patient's wellbeing above financial gain.

 

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On 5/29/2020 at 4:44 PM, I-ROK said:

So the CDC is wrong now?

Everyone loved the CDC before... but now that they are saying things we don’t like, they’re full of it? Got it

"Believe the doctors, experts, and data"  (except those that we disagree with)

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These riots are not what we needed for COVID prevention.

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I have been involved in Krav Maga for quite a while and I have been an instructor for aprox 8-10 years?

Today I went and helped pack the gym up into a self storage. The gym has gone bust and I am done instructing due to the Covid shutdown. Pretty sad day but I know I helped a lot of people through the years. Likewise I was helped a lot mentally and physically. It is an experience I will cherish till the day I day. Lot of sweat, blood and tears. I guess time marches on and on.....

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No weekend lull at Covid worldometers.  124,000 new cases; over 4,000 deaths.  Brazil surges over 30,000 new cases and is crossing over 500,000 total reported cases (2.3K/million).  Russia is moving past 400,000 reported cases (2.7K/million).

For reported cases per million (for countries with over 1M population):

Qatar - 19.2K/M - !

Bahrain - 6.3K ........ Kuwait - 6.1K ....... Spain - 6.1K

Singapore - 5.9K ....... USA - 5.5K ........ Ireland - 5.0K ....... Belgium - 5.0K ........ Chile - 5.0K

Peru - 4.7K ........ Belarus - 4.4K ........ UK - 4.0K

 

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2 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

There was a recent outbreak here in Seoul at a gay bar, and they traced it back to a private tutor who was giving after school classes illegally.  Anyways, the gay bar had multiple people infected.  Also, one of his students became infected, and he infected a person who was in the delivery business dropping something off to this person’s home.  Then, the worker spread it unknowingly to a bunch of people at his delivery company.  Schools, bars, and clubs which had recently reopened are all closed again.  The tracing was pretty incredible.

Your friend has some of these details incorrect.

The tutor was not who they traced the gay bar outbreak back to. The first case there was a 29 year old. The 25 year old tutor is who they traced the Coupang outbreak to and he caught it from the gay club outbreak. 

Quote

 

 He first spread the virus to his students in Incheon, who in turn brought the virus to a coin karaoke room. A cab driver who went singing there transmitted the virus to a birthday party in a buffet restaurant in Bucheon, where it spread among attendees.

The virus was then carried to two other restaurants by diners, one of whom further infected a family member - the seventh in the chain.

 

The "delivery driver" was one of the coupang employees that caught it many degrees of separation later. 

I don't know how old the student that gave it to the cab driver was. Noraebangs (coin karaoke rooms) are like photobooths where people pay to sit in these tiny booths and sing karaoke together. Cant believe that right now such a thing would be allowed. 

One thing that this outbreak tracing illustrates yet again is how a system like this would never work here. Plenty of these cases lied about various things and were caught because the government had access to credit card records and phone location data. The 25 year old tutor told investigators that he was unemployed. They figured out he was lying. 

 

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7 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Your friend has some of these details incorrect.

The tutor was not who they traced the gay bar outbreak back to. The first case there was a 29 year old. The 25 year old tutor is who they traced the Coupang outbreak to and he caught it from the gay club outbreak. 

The "delivery driver" was one of the coupang employees that caught it many degrees of separation later. 

I don't know how old the student that gave it to the cab driver was. Noraebangs (coin karaoke rooms) are like photobooths where people pay to sit in these tiny booths and sing karaoke together. Cant believe that right now such a thing would be allowed. 

One thing that this outbreak tracing illustrates yet again is how a system like this would never work here. Plenty of these cases lied about various things and were caught because the government had access to credit card records and phone location data. The 25 year old tutor told investigators that he was unemployed. They figured out he was lying. 

 

Good to know, but I think you are too pessimistic wrt contact tracing. Just like not overloading hospitals, it is an inexact science, but still useful in controlling the pandemic.

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3 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Good to know, but I think you are too pessimistic wrt contact tracing. Just like not overloading hospitals, it is an inexact science, but still useful in controlling the pandemic.

In korea they traced 7 steps forward from the 25 year old tutor because they had access to records that here would be off limits.

I am not saying don't do any of it, as it is important to still try and link backward how people caught it to calculate risks, and backward is much easier.

We just cant do what they do. So holding it up as a system we should emulate is misguided(not saying that is what you are doing here).   

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2 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

No weekend lull at Covid worldometers.  124,000 new cases; over 4,000 deaths.  Brazil surges over 30,000 new cases and is crossing over 500,000 total reported cases (2.3K/million).  Russia is moving past 400,000 reported cases (2.7K/million).

For reported cases per million (for countries with over 1M population):

Qatar - 19.2K/M - !

Bahrain - 6.3K ........ Kuwait - 6.1K ....... Spain - 6.1K

Singapore - 5.9K ....... USA - 5.5K ........ Ireland - 5.0K ....... Belgium - 5.0K ........ Chile - 5.0K

Peru - 4.7K ........ Belarus - 4.4K ........ UK - 4.0K

 

I mentioned this the other day regarding Qatar. Huge numbers of tests and cases, but 36 deaths out of over 55k cases?

Either they've got it figured out, or these numbers are straight b.s.

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9 hours ago, ChiefD said:

Heck, maybe these are the end times.

If so, I’ve had sex, eaten Chinese food, drank plenty of beer, have heard my 3 kids belly laughs, watched them smile for the first time, run three marathons, and watched the Royals and Chiefs win championships in my lifetime, as have my kids.

I’m pretty confident my wife still loves me since she just left to buy me some more beer. I think I’m good.

:banned:

Let’s not forget the shovels

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6 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

No weekend lull at Covid worldometers.  124,000 new cases; over 4,000 deaths.  Brazil surges over 30,000 new cases and is crossing over 500,000 total reported cases (2.3K/million).  Russia is moving past 400,000 reported cases (2.7K/million).

For reported cases per million (for countries with over 1M population):

Qatar - 19.2K/M - !

Bahrain - 6.3K ........ Kuwait - 6.1K ....... Spain - 6.1K

Singapore - 5.9K ....... USA - 5.5K ........ Ireland - 5.0K ....... Belgium - 5.0K ........ Chile - 5.0K

Peru - 4.7K ........ Belarus - 4.4K ........ UK - 4.0K

And on the flip side:

- 10 countries (5 in Asia, 4 in Africa, and 1 in Oceania) over 1M population have ZERO reported deaths
- Asia, which makes up 60% of the world's population, accounts for only 8% of the deaths
- Africa, which makes up 17% of the world's population, accounts for only 1% of the deaths

I kinda believe Africa's numbers more than Asia's, considering the life expectancy for men in Africa is only 61, and 65 for women.  Both numbers are 10 years or more below every other continent.

 

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On 5/28/2020 at 5:28 PM, need2know said:

i see people riding bikes with masks on.

or better yet driving  a car with no one else in the car  wearing one.   its hilarious

Hard to find that sweet spot where it doesn't fog up my glasses.  If it's already on and I just have a short trip, I'll leave it on in the car.

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On 5/29/2020 at 10:14 PM, AAABatteries said:

My son's AAU team is planning to have a basketball practice this Monday.  I have no clue what to do but I'm leaning towards making him sit unless the coach says they are just doing drills.  I hate having to make this decision as he's already missed 2 months and is bored out of his mind.

We just had our first practice Thursday.  Had to be outside and I had to have two groups of 4, one on the court and one in the volleyball pit doing ladder drills and such.  Each kid had to have their own ball, no passing or rebounding for others allowed, so lots of ball handling/shooting.  Did 3 one-hour sessions.

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19 hours ago, ChiefD said:

Heck, maybe these are the end times.

If so, I’ve had sex, eaten Chinese food, drank plenty of beer, have heard my 3 kids belly laughs, watched them smile for the first time, run three marathons, and watched the Royals and Chiefs win championships in my lifetime, as have my kids.

I’m pretty confident my wife still loves me since she just left to buy me some more beer. I think I’m good.

:banned:

eaten Chinese food??

:lol:

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Posted (edited)

Reported by Chinese Media:  U.S.Medical Bill Causes Shortness of Breath 

DENVER, United States, May 30 (Xinhua) -- A high school teacher from the U.S. state of Colorado was stunned to receive a medical bill of 840,000 U.S. dollars for his treatment after contracting COVID-19, local media reported on Saturday.

The bill received by Robert Dennis, a Centennial High School teacher, covered Dennis' time at Denver's Sky Ridge hospital, where he was put on a ventilator in the intensive care unit for two weeks.

However, what was not included was Dennis' three weeks at Spalding Rehabilitation Hospital, or his wife's trips to the emergency room when she was also fighting the virus. The couple estimated that their total bills would top one and a half million dollars.

The couple had insurance and they planned to call to make sure that they were covered.

"Seeing that number yesterday for the first bill, it took your breath away again," the wife said, "It's scary. I don't care how much you have covered. It's scary to see that kind of number and not really know." 

Edited by Rohn Jambo

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Posted (edited)

The UK out of the blue lifted their shielding policy and said it was safe for the sheltered populations (high risk) go out now. 

Edited by parasaurolophus

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Penguin said:

Yes, doctors have realized for a while that pumping oxygen into the lungs does not always help when the micro blood vessels that carry oxygen into the blood stream are badly damaged.  This is one reason why it is more difficult for severe cases to recovery from a CV pneumonia.

 

Edited by Rohn Jambo

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Posted (edited)

I was called paranoid b/c I will not get on a plane right now. Really? GFY

Also, I may or may not be more at risk thanks to my asthma.

Edited by hispeedthinmint

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Posted (edited)

With fairly steady new cases and fewer hospitalizations, I had wondered if there was a possibility the virus was becoming weaker. Found this today. Would be great news if true.

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-184358113.html

 

New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

"In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion.

"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.

Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19, with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21. It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019.

However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.

 

A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.

"The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today," said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

"It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different."

Edited by ericttspikes
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Posted (edited)

You left out the following quote from Dr Zangrillo which leads me to believe that he has an agenda:

Quote

"We've got to get back to being a normal country," he said. "Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country."

 

Edited by Don Hutson

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On 5/30/2020 at 12:49 PM, shader said:

The riots breaking out in so many cities is really dangerous for the spread.  Many have masks on but many don’t.  And though I haven’t seen CDC or WHO guidance on whether screaming and yelling is bad for the spread, I’m going to assume an angry protester at a super spreader stage could cause some major hot spots.  
 

Definitely don’t want to get into the politics or issues of the protests, but when you strictly look at the covid-19 impacts, it’s not good. Hopefully (for many reasons) they end soon.

Edit:  even now I was looking at twitter/periscope and I see very peaceful protests in Cincinnati, Philly and Austin taking place right now.  

Riots were deemed essential. 

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31 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

You left out the following quote from Dr Zangrillo which leads me to believe that he has an agenda:

 

What is the agenda of the other doctor, Dr. Bassetti? 

Matteo Bassetti is Head of the Infectious Diseases Clinic of the San Martino-IST University Hospital in Genoa and Full Professor of Infectious Diseases of the University of Genoa, Italy. Dr Bassetti studied at the University of Genoa School of Medicine and continued his medical education at the Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, USA with an Infectious Diseases fellowship. Dr Bassetti is chair of the Critically Ill Study Group of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID). Dr Bassetti is also co-chair of the Intra-abdominal Infections Study Group of the International Society of Chemotherapy (ISC). He is the president of the Italian Society of Anti-infective Therapy (SITA) and member of executive committee for the battle against antimicrobial resistance of the Italian Minister of Health (PNCAR). He is member-elected (2018-2022) of International Council of the Immunocompromised Host Society (ICHS). From 2019 he is member of the council of International Sepsis Forum (ISF). He serves on the editorial board of several prestigious international journals. Author or co-author of 600 papers (H index 60; 12500 citations) published in International peer-review journals and several chapter’s book on antibiotic therapy, fungal infections, antimicrobial resistances, infections in immunocompromised patients and critically ill patients.

 

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Posted (edited)

I wonder if getting smaller initial viral loads is the reason it is weaker.  In February and March, people would have been getting exposed to much larger viral loads in Italy which would have made it easier for the virus to overwhelm a person's immune system.

Edited by Don Hutson
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9 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

I wonder if getting smaller initial viral loads is the reason it is weaker.  In February and March, people would have been getting exposed to much larger viral loads in Italy which would have made it easier for the virus to overwhelm a person's immune system.

Connect these dots for me. 

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I was called paranoid b/c I will not get on a plane right now. Really? GFY

Also, I may or may not be more at risk thanks to my asthma.

I'm not high risk and I'm not interested in flying.  Who said you are paranoid?

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1 minute ago, culdeus said:

Connect these dots for me. 

People who are now getting infected are possibly only getting infected by a tiny amount of virus which the body's immune system can better handle.

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6 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

People who are now getting infected are possibly only getting infected by a tiny amount of virus which the body's immune system can better handle.

Why would it be different?

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9 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:
15 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

People who are now getting infected are possibly only getting infected by a tiny amount of virus which the body's immune system can better handle.

Why would it be different?

I imagine that with social distancing and restaurants closed and people working from home - the people that are contracting it are doing so in a way where their exposure to the virus is limited

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, the moops said:

I imagine that with social distancing and restaurants closed and people working from home - the people that are contracting it are doing so in a way where their exposure to the virus is limited

Restaurants are doing more take out business.  I drove around this evening and there were long drive-thru lines at Popeyes and Taco Bell.

Edited by Rohn Jambo

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jobarules said:

Maybe masks?

And I bet Italians aren't kissing each other and talking with their faces 12 inches from each other like usual.

Edited by Don Hutson
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