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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)

sho nuff said:
Getting past just the deaths...has anything really come out about long term issues with those who recovered?  Organ damage, heart issues, lung issues, kidney issues or other long term effects?  Is anything known at this point?
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I mean there are anecdotal reports coming out that people that had a serious reaction and recovered have some lasting lung damage.  

How lasting? I don't think we really know yet.  It also seems lasting damage seems exceptionally rare.  

 
sho nuff said:
Getting past just the deaths...has anything really come out about long term issues with those who recovered?  Organ damage, heart issues, lung issues, kidney issues or other long term effects?  Is anything known at this point?
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Other than anecdotal reports of lung damage from prolonged respirator usage, I haven't seen any data.

 
culdeus said:
I mean there are anecdotal reports coming out that people that had a serious reaction and recovered have some lasting lung damage.  

How lasting? I don't think we really know yet.  It also seems lasting damage seems exceptionally rare.  
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JaxBill said:
Other than anecdotal reports of lung damage from prolonged respirator usage, I haven't seen any data.
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Thanks...obviously still so much about this virus we don't yet know.

 
TheWinz said:
Two things I don't like about this...

1)  They shouldn't have said "if they cannot social distance".  Just say masks are mandatory inside public buildings and leave it at that.  It's basically a loophole built in.

2)  Change "could result in a $250 fine" to "will result in a $250 fine".
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That's not how we roll down here unfortunately.....it's all about pushing off to others the tough decisions and when you can't, make it a suggestion.

 
Here's a post from a doctor I've been following on a different forum. I think he's in Orlando, thus the Amway Arena reference. I don't know what's going on in Texas with the ICU numbers being show near capacity, but it appears they're able to handle a lot more than the official numbers would indicate in Orlando. I know it's considered a new hot spot with people probably wondering about Disney's re-opening plans.

Also, the ICU bed utilization numbers are extremely low-balled as they only count licensed ICU beds. For example, we have a 28 bed ICU unit but have the ability to expand to 62 fully capable ICU beds if needed. We have over 800 ventilators just sitting inside of Amway Arena right now that likely won't be touched.
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jplvr said:
Here's a post from a doctor I've been following on a different forum. I think he's in Orlando, thus the Amway Arena reference. I don't know what's going on in Texas with the ICU numbers being show near capacity, but it appears they're able to handle a lot more than the official numbers would indicate in Orlando. I know it's considered a new hot spot with people probably wondering about Disney's re-opening plans.

"Also, the ICU bed utilization numbers are extremely low-balled as they only count licensed ICU beds. For example, we have a 28 bed ICU unit but have the ability to expand to 62 fully capable ICU beds if needed. We have over 800 ventilators just sitting inside of Amway Arena right now that likely won't be touched."
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Is his username "DrHeadInTheSand?"

Thoughts are with him for what is coming his way if he's on the front lines of this.

 
The thing about "ventilators that won't get touched":

It looks to me like ventilators are no longer immediate go-to items for severe COVID-19 treatment. More severe-symptom patients are laid prone and/or given steroids these days. Speculatively (I don't know for sure), maybe also more use of anti-coagulants to help patients fight off blood clots in the lungs? @Terminalxylem @growlers @gianmarco ?

Point being, lower-than-expected ventilator use is likely less because COVID patients aren't getting "that sick" anymore. It's likely much more because recommended treatment protocols have changed over the last few months.

 
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Doug B said:
The thing about "ventilators that won't get touched":

It looks to me like ventilators are no longer immediate go-to items for severe COVID-19 treatment. More severe-symptom patients are laid prone and/or given steroids these days. Speculatively (I don't know for sure), maybe also more use of anti-coagulants to help patients fight off blood clots in the lungs? @Terminalxylem @growlers @gianmarco ?

Point being, lower-than-expected ventilator use is likely less because COVID patients aren't getting "that sick" anymore. It's likely much more because recommended treatment protocols have changed over the last few months.
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I don't disagree. I was just reporting what a doctor sitting in an Orlando hospital was saying about their ICU capacity. It's over double what you'll find on the internet, assuming expansion is necessary. 

 
jplvr said:
Also, the ICU bed utilization numbers are extremely low-balled as they only count licensed ICU beds. For example, we have a 28 bed ICU unit but have the ability to expand to 62 fully capable ICU beds if needed. We have over 800 ventilators just sitting inside of Amway Arena right now that likely won't be touched.
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Does anyone know if we ever had to put 2 people on the same vent in the US at any point?  I know we were freaking out about the possibility, and we had people coming up with solutions, but to my knowledge, we never did.

 
About a week ago in this thread, @WDIK2 posted about a co-worker (?) of his that tested positive for COVID-19 while this co-workers' riding buddy -- in the car with a positive case for hours everyday -- never did come down with the illness. WDIK2 asked the house how this could be, and we never really broached his question ... most of us probably just figured Ride-Along Guy simply lucked out and that's all there was to it. Other people, both in this thread and elsewhere on the Internet, have posted similar accounts asking why a certain person that they know never tested positive even after heavy exposure to a COVID-positive person.

At the time, I found an article that may shed some light on why "some people get it and some people don't", and why apparent risk of transmission doesn't seem to intuitively track with actual transmissions. IOW, there seem to be a lot of cases where people got COVID where the statistical risks should've been low ... and also vice versa: a lot of cases where people didn't get COVID when their risks seemed high.

The first thing we think of to answer these "Why?" questions is the susceptibility of the COVID patient: are they old or young? Healthy or unhealthy? Specific comorbidities? Activities? Indoor spaces? Crowds? Stale area? Social distancing or not? Face coverings or not?

This article turns that on its head: Perhaps it's not so much differences in individual susceptibility to catching the virus ... it could instead be that differences in individual carriers' ability to shed/spread the viruses are more impactful:

‘Superspreaders’ Could Actually Make Covid-19 Easier to Control
The surprising implications of the disease’s tendency to spread in big bunches.

At a Feb. 15 workshop for Zumba instructors in the South Korean city of Cheonan, one person infected with Covid-19 spread the disease to seven others, who then passed it on in the classes they taught, with the resulting outbreak infecting more than 100. In early March, one member of the Skagit Valley Chorale in Mount Vernon, Washington, seems to have infected as many as 52 others at choir practice. Then there’s the guy at the seafood processing plant near Accra, Ghana, who was reported this month to have infected 533 co-workers.

These “superspreading” events have become a trademark of the new coronavirus — at first impression quite a scary one. But most people who get the disease don’t pass it on to dozens of others, and many don’t pass it on to anyone at all. One new global study estimates that about 10% of those infected with Covid-19 cause 80% of the secondary transmissions; another study focused on Israel puts that share between 1% and 10%. This imbalance explains a lot about why Covid-19 has spread so unevenly and unpredictably around the world. It also, perhaps counterintuitively, appears to make the disease easier to control than it would be if superspreaders weren’t so important.

The most important lessons to be derived here may spring from the fact that the variations in infectiousness are not entirely random. In the future, a team of eight mostly U.S.-based researchers speculated in yet another new paper on the phenomenon, it may be possible to identify those likeliest to be superspreaders by demographics, viral load or other physical characteristics. In the present, it’s already pretty easy to identify specific behaviors and locations that lend themselves to large-scale Covid-19 transmission, with singing, yelling, talking loudly or otherwise engaging in behaviors likely to spread the virus in the crowded indoor spaces implicated in most of the major superspreading events.
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The conclusions of the article (spoilered for length):
 

The key role of such events may help explain why, as my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Elaine He demonstrated with a remarkable set of charts, the strictness of government lockdowns in different European countries did not seem to be correlated with success in slowing the spread of the disease, although their timing did. Once you’ve put a stop to large, indoor gatherings with lots of yelling or singing, there may be diminishing returns to other restrictions. This may also help explain why epidemic models that did not assume great variability in individual infectiousness so wildly overestimated how fast the disease would spread under relatively relaxed restrictions in Sweden.

Another implication of Covid-19’s superspreader skew, according to several recent papers, is that even in the absence of widespread testing for the disease, low-tech efforts to isolate those with symptoms and track down their contacts can be quite effective in slowing its spread. Preventing just one superspreading event in this way can have a big impact, whereas if transmission were more evenly distributed, isolation efforts would have to be quite exhaustive to succeed. I would also suggest that widespread wearing of even not-very-effective cloth masks should cut down on the likelihood of superspreading, but then I am always looking to justify the investments I have made in building a family mask stash.

Finally, as South Korea in particular has experienced again and again over the past few months, superspreader events can allow Covid-19 to make rapid comebacks after periods of decline. They’re a reason to remain extremely vigilant about the disease even when you think you have it on the run. But they are also a reason to hope that it can be contained in a way that, say, influenza probably cannot.
 
San Antonio up to number three on the list of cities with the fastest Covid growth the past week. Winning!  Better be looking over your shoulders Phoenix and Tampa!

 
Doug B said:
The key role of such events may help explain why, as my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Elaine He demonstrated with a remarkable set of charts, the strictness of government lockdowns in different European countries did not seem to be correlated with success in slowing the spread of the disease, although their timing did. Once you’ve put a stop to large, indoor gatherings with lots of yelling or singing, there may be diminishing returns to other restrictions. This may also help explain why epidemic models that did not assume great variability in individual infectiousness so wildly overestimated how fast the disease would spread under relatively relaxed restrictions in Sweden.
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So the first paragraph of you spoiler pretty much points right at how our leadership is completely failing us. They are directly doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing and promoting the worst possible choices you can make. Awesome. No wonder Europe is about to stop allowing us to even set foot on their soil.

 
MOP from the Field: So Palm Beach mandated masks at all public places starting today so I had my mask in hand and was ready slip it on so I could grab a couple slices of my favorite pizza to go and of course nobody has the mask on so I put mine on and ventured inside and just calmly stated that "I think they passed a law last night, don't want anyone getting a $250-$500 fine" and let's just say that went over like a lead balloon. 

The owners or kids running the joint(all in masks) just looked at me like "what do you want us to do?"

-I said it's not your job to enforce it, you shouldn't have to. I did ask if I could in the future just order over the phone and have it brought to my car outside or just outside the door so this isn't an issue. 

I was trying to dip my toe into some restaurants and during the first lockdown phase in Florida, I didn't eat take out at all. 

I hate to be this way but it's no shocker...it's the people. I don't want to be exposed to the people. Back to March, April and May mindset I guess. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
MOP from the Field: So Palm Beach mandated masks at all public places starting today so I had my mask in hand and was ready slip it on so I could grab a couple slices of my favorite pizza to go and of course nobody has the mask on so I put mine on and ventured inside and just calmly stated that "I think they passed a law last night, don't want anyone getting a $250-$500 fine" and let's just say that went over like a lead balloon. 

The owners or kids running the joint(all in masks) just looked at me like "what do you want us to do?"

-I said it's not your job to enforce it, you shouldn't have to. I did ask if I could in the future just order over the phone and have it brought to my car outside or just outside the door so this isn't an issue. 

I was trying to dip my toe into some restaurants and during the first lockdown phase in Florida, I didn't eat take out at all. 

I hate to be this way but it's no shocker...it's the people. I don't want to be exposed to the people. Back to March, April and May mindset I guess. 
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Unfortunately it’s tough for the people working in the businesses where the mandates have been put in place. We’ve got a mandate in place but the grocery store I work in really isn’t enforcing it. Compliance is very high, maybe 95%, so I don’t really care. But if it were 50%, I’d be getting on the store manager to do something. It’s tough though because we haven’t been provided with any masks to give out and have very few for sale. I don’t blame them for limiting conflict as long as compliance stays high. 4th of July should be interesting.

 
Biff84 said:
Unfortunately it’s tough for the people working in the businesses where the mandates have been put in place. We’ve got a mandate in place but the grocery store I work in really isn’t enforcing it. Compliance is very high, maybe 95%, so I don’t really care. But if it were 50%, I’d be getting on the store manager to do something. It’s tough though because we haven’t been provided with any masks to give out and have very few for sale. I don’t blame them for limiting conflict as long as compliance stays high. 4th of July should be interesting.
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-Very important point you bring up. I was using the little blue masks like you see in the hospitals. I don't think those are supposed to be used multiple times but what do I know?(not much)

-but today I suddenly have 2-3 new masks and they are "VogMasks" and can be used 6-12 months depending on use.  And I believe if people had these, they wouldn't make a big deal about wearing them...but they cost upwards of $33 and let's just be honest, that puts a lot of folks outside of affordability. I was hesitant to raid the hospital of any masks but I thin I might see about acquiring a box of those disposable ones so I can hand them out to people before they walk inside.  

 
I almost posted on this earlier when I mentioned Texas because I was reading random things suggesting the Texas ICU bed concern wasn't due to Covid without confirmation. I guess you could say it's still dangerous if there's a need for the expected rise in Covid patient needs, but as the 4th tweet in the thread suggests, they have emergency expansion plans in place as well. Still, ICUs aren't filled with Covid patients according to the Texas Hospital Association. They're filled with people whose minor, treatable conditions worsened because they waited or had to wait to get treatment because of lock downs.

https://twitter.com/aginnt/status/1275868742287634435

Edit for Dallas:

https://twitter.com/aginnt/status/1275857106000850950

 
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shader said:
You really gotta stop with this.  But hey, I've made my point, so I'll leave you guys to your hoping that this virus will magically not kill people this time around.
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No, I think you need to stop stating things as absolute. You are as guilty as anyone of throwing around your opinions as facts. And you continue to manipulate your words to support your opinions. 

 
Franknbeans said:
 and another
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Yuck...yeah, that is the kind of stuff I "want to see" but don't want to see it actually happening (if that makes sense).

As an asthmatic, with hereditary high blood pressure, family history of hear issues (mainly atrial fibrillation...which, tends to put patients on blood thinners because of clotting issues).  And a brother who works in the public who lives with AFib (including an implanted defibrillator/pacemaker)...sort of scary stuff about the non-death side of this as well.

 
IHME model estimates 180K deaths by Oct 1st.

If 95% of people wear masks in public, the model estimates that figure would drop to 146K deaths.

Wear a mask. Do we want the economy back or not? C’mon.

 
Vaccines appear to be progressing extremely fast.  May have some ready by September/October time frame.

https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/drug-development/COVID-19-vaccines-antibodies-advance/98/i24

 
Re. ICU bed capacity: it's a ridiculous and misleading number. Capacity in many systems is limited not by the physical beds, but by the trained RNs available to staff them.

My hospital has staff for about 45 beds (stretched a little thin but not ridiculously so), with 18 of those of an "step-down" type (not ventilators). We have extra SPACES ("beds") that could cover about another 20. Counting those 20 as "available" is misleading, as actually utilizing them would mean  a dramatic shift in how we deliver care, utilizing staff that are poorly or completely un-trained in ventilators and have never seen that level of acuity. Meanwhile, another major hospital in the area has few "left-over" spaces and there available beds is actually pretty close to the staffing ability. 

I've always taken issue with bed availability reports...they're virtually worthless. A better measure would be staffing availability but that's harder to track and report

 
renesauz said:
I've always taken issue with bed availability reports...they're virtually worthless. A better measure would be staffing availability but that's harder to track and report
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I also get the impression that in a COVID ward (or really in any intensive care ward) ... it only take a small number of extra patients to go from "brisk, but under control" to "seat-of-the-pants pandemonium".

 
renesauz said:
Re. ICU bed capacity: it's a ridiculous and misleading number. Capacity in many systems is limited not by the physical beds, but by the trained RNs available to staff them.

My hospital has staff for about 45 beds (stretched a little thin but not ridiculously so), with 18 of those of an "step-down" type (not ventilators). We have extra SPACES ("beds") that could cover about another 20. Counting those 20 as "available" is misleading, as actually utilizing them would mean  a dramatic shift in how we deliver care, utilizing staff that are poorly or completely un-trained in ventilators and have never seen that level of acuity. Meanwhile, another major hospital in the area has few "left-over" spaces and there available beds is actually pretty close to the staffing ability. 

I've always taken issue with bed availability reports...they're virtually worthless. A better measure would be staffing availability but that's harder to track and report
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Yeah Phoenix hospitals are calling in traveling nurses from Colorado right now. ICU usage hasn’t increased significantly but that’s very telling of what they are expecting.

 
Dezbelief said:
My best friend can't wear a mask because he's asthmatic. Moron, no mask and asthma is going to get you killed quicker. 
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Likely not true....asthma and the other morons running around maskless will get him killed quicker. 

The reason I get angry with those whining about their rights re. masking is that they provide FAR MORE protection to those around you (from you) then to yourself. And they're so simple...it's ridiculous to call these requirements an infringement.

How about my right not to have the asymptomatic COVID breathing all over me???!!!!   We've seen this argument with drivers licenses too....how about my right to make sure others on the road are at least marginally qualified to handle that two ton weapon?

 
Doug B said:
I also get the impression that in a COVID ward (or really in any intensive care ward) ... it only take a small number of extra patients to go from "brisk, but under control" to "seat-of-the-pants pandemonium".
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Yep. It's amazing how different things can be from shift to shift. There are night 7 of us easily handle 14 or 15 patients and spend half the night trying to stay awake...and others where we skip lunches and nearly pee ourselves even with 8 nurses for 15.

It would help a TON if doctors would actually write DNR orders instead of begging families for permission to write them. It's not a new dynamic with COVID, but too many people are too slow to let go. The money and resources spent keeping a dying person alive for an extra day or two (usually unresponsive on a ventilator) is ridiculous. 

 
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Grace Under Pressure said:
Unreal.

I’ll take it to the PSF but this attitude is straight up Donald Trump’s fault. Sorry to offend anyone.

I’ll drop it now but it’s maddening and needs to be said. Tired of covering for it under the guise of “no politics though”. We’re not going to save lives because of not offending people?
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Its hard to defend even from pro-Trumpers like myself.

 
jobarules said:
You call your best friend a moron?
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True friends are honest to one another. 

renesauz said:
Likely not true....asthma and the other morons running around maskless will get him killed quicker. 

The reason I get angry with those whining about their rights re. masking is that they provide FAR MORE protection to those around you (from you) then to yourself. And they're so simple...it's ridiculous to call these requirements an infringement.

How about my right not to have the asymptomatic COVID breathing all over me???!!!!   We've seen this argument with drivers licenses too....how about my right to make sure others on the road are at least marginally qualified to handle that two ton weapon?
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It's not that long ago drinking and driving was legal. Public good people!

 
jobarules said:
Its hard to defend even from pro-Trumpers like myself.
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Respect for that. That’s because we know in NY the virus doesn’t do politics. It gets transmitted. Some people get sick, some very badly and go to the hospital, and some pass away.

Should we go back to work and back to life? Yes.

Can we do it smart so we have an economy? So our kids can play ball and go to camp? Please people, let’s do this.

Stay safe and healthy.

 
Damn it.

My best friend just landed in the hospital for Coronia Virus.  He is in isolation using oxygen. Early 50s. Lifelong weedsmoker (never smoked anything else tho) who is active and has a young kid at home. Moved out his wife and kid yesterday. 

He had passed kidney stones through his pecker earlier in life and was in so much pain (pissing glass shards) for a couple weeks. He said that was a 9.5 and this fluctuates between and 8.5 - 9. He feels 200 feet underwater, i.e. like my 235# BST-self is standing on his chest full time. All his joints hurt. His legs are killing him constantly. He is coughing up white thick stuff, almost like paint, every so often. And he has all the other common bad effects as well.

Sucky sucky sucky. He is one the funniest humans Ive ever met.

 
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