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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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41 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Please elaborate. Include the credentials which qualify you to determine what does and doesn’t constitute a “big deal” for hospitals.

Your credentials aren’t better than mine.  🤷‍♂️

I know you are trying to help, but you are only making things worse.  

Here’s a quote for you:

“We are well managed to prepare for an increase in patient volume”

 

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8 hours ago, TheWinz said:

According to Worldometer, some states are doing much better than others when it comes to deaths vs positives.  Here are the top 10 worst & best states:

1 - Connecticut - 9.28%                        50 - Utah - 0.97%
2 - Michigan - 9.11%                             49 - South Dakota - 1.29%
3 - New York - 7.64%                            48 - Nebraska - 1.36%
4 - Pennsylvania - 7.55%                     47 - Arkansas - 1.43%
5 - New Jersey - 7.54%                        46 - Tennessee - 1.55%
6 - Massachusetts - 7.24%                 45 - Wyoming - 1.65%
7 - Louisiana - 6.39%                           44 - Alaska - 1.78%
8 - Ohio - 6.19%                                    43 - Texas - 2.15%
9 - New Hampshire - 6.08%                42 - Kansas - 2.15%
10 - Indiana - 6.00%                             41 - Hawaii - 2.30%

Is the virus more deadly on the east coast versus the rest of the US?
Are some states just doing a bad job protecting their elderly?
Are east coasters out of shape compared to the rest?
Are the higher percentage states testing a larger portion of their elderly/at risk?

I just find it hard to believe you are 10 times more likely to die if infected in CT as you are in UT.  The states are pretty similar in amount tested (#'s 9 & 14 overall), so what gives?

This is due to failure to test early on.   Basically no testing in NY state in the beginning and I know people admitted to the hospital for Covid that were never tested since they didn't have enough testing.  

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

I love it when @tjnc09 comes off suspension

Huh? I spent a week by a lake enjoying my life because I’m not afraid of something that is basically the flu.  That’s very thoughtful you noticed I was gone though.

 

Edited by tjnc09
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1 hour ago, nirad3 said:

Not that I agree with him, but there are PLENTY of folks - many in this thread - that don't have any kind of "credentials" at all and they're making all sorts of sweeping statements too.

Fair enough. I don’t expect a medical degree, but a supportive link every now and then would be appreciated.

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5 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Fair enough. I don’t expect a medical degree, but a supportive link every now and then would be appreciated.

I don't disagree.

I appreciate what you bring to this thread.  :thumbup:

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46 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Your credentials aren’t better than mine.  🤷‍♂️

I know you are trying to help, but you are only making things worse.  

Here’s a quote for you:

“We are well managed to prepare for an increase in patient volume”

 

Hard to know, without some knowledge of your background. As for me, I’ve worked in a hospital setting for over two decades, directly cared for COVID patients and been involved in formulating local policy related to the pandemic.

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2 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:
2 hours ago, joffer said:

This is ridiculous.  (The outcome, not your post).

Edit: Whoops, just saw the update.  Glad the situation isn't so dire.

This is my local "go to" news source....they are pretty decent and keep their opinions out of the news for the most part.  Of course, I wish they'd focus less on shootings etc, but beggars can't be choosers.  I'd be pretty confident in their reporting.  As I said up just a bit, the spin zone is in full effect here and the press conference yesterday was a complete train wreck.  I don't see how anyone came out of that thing with a clear picture of anything so this sort of incorrect information doesn't surprise me at all.  He's doing everything he can to explain away all the new cases and positivity rate going up and in doing so, it appears he's shooting himself in the foot.  Oddly enough, if he'd just have stuck to the reality, it shines a much more favorable light on the situation than his attempt at spin.

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55 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Your credentials aren’t better than mine.  🤷‍♂️

I know you are trying to help, but you are only making things worse.  

Here’s a quote for you:

“We are well managed to prepare for an increase in patient volume”

 

:lmao::lmao:   I'm so glad I'm un-hiding your comments in this thread.  Gold Jerry.  Gold!

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1 hour ago, beer 30 said:

I love it when @tjnc09 comes off suspension

You'd think at some point they'd just outright ban him. 

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54 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Huh? I spent a week by a lake enjoying my life because I’m not afraid of something that is basically the flu.  That’s very thoughtful you noticed I was gone though.

 

Sigh

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1 hour ago, tjnc09 said:

Huh? I spent a week by a lake enjoying my life because I’m not afraid of something that is basically the flu.  That’s very thoughtful you noticed I was gone though.

 

Was that it north or south america?

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Interesting plans coming out for schools in Dallas.  Some are planning to centralize e-learning to the extent that classroom teachers are independent from e-learning.  

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4 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Interesting plans coming out for schools in Dallas.  Some are planning to centralize e-learning to the extent that classroom teachers are independent from e-learning.  

I'm not sure what that e-means.   Do you have a link?

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4 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Interesting plans coming out for schools in Dallas.  Some are planning to centralize e-learning to the extent that classroom teachers are independent from e-learning.  

That would be interesting for sure.  As for my kids' school/classes/teachers, one of them (the 1st grader) was on top of things e-learning wise, while the other (3rd grade) was a disaster.

I bet it would help to have one central source that would handle all the e-learning, opening the teachers up to handling the in-class stuff.

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10 hours ago, TheWinz said:

According to Worldometer, some states are doing much better than others when it comes to deaths vs positives.  Here are the top 10 worst & best states:

1 - Connecticut - 9.28%                        50 - Utah - 0.97%
2 - Michigan - 9.11%                             49 - South Dakota - 1.29%
3 - New York - 7.64%                            48 - Nebraska - 1.36%
4 - Pennsylvania - 7.55%                     47 - Arkansas - 1.43%
5 - New Jersey - 7.54%                        46 - Tennessee - 1.55%
6 - Massachusetts - 7.24%                 45 - Wyoming - 1.65%
7 - Louisiana - 6.39%                           44 - Alaska - 1.78%
8 - Ohio - 6.19%                                    43 - Texas - 2.15%
9 - New Hampshire - 6.08%                42 - Kansas - 2.15%
10 - Indiana - 6.00%                             41 - Hawaii - 2.30%

Is the virus more deadly on the east coast versus the rest of the US?
Are some states just doing a bad job protecting their elderly?
Are east coasters out of shape compared to the rest?
Are the higher percentage states testing a larger portion of their elderly/at risk?

I just find it hard to believe you are 10 times more likely to die if infected in CT as you are in UT.  The states are pretty similar in amount tested (#'s 9 & 14 overall), so what gives?

 

1 hour ago, Redwes25 said:

This is due to failure to test early on.   Basically no testing in NY state in the beginning and I know people admitted to the hospital for Covid that were never tested since they didn't have enough testing.  

I suspect that's a big portion of it.  I know at the time that PA had their highest hospitalization rate, it was extremely difficult to get tested.  The positive rate has been steadily declining here for weeks.  There are definitely a ton of positives missing from the denominator.  I've seen people try to extract the actual arrival curve based on testing rates, but it is not clear to me what assumptions they are making so it's hard to know if the end result has any merit.  You would think the state health departments would be doing the same thing, but if they are it doesn't seem like they are sharing it with the public.

 

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5 minutes ago, -fish- said:

I'm not sure what that e-means.   Do you have a link?

https://www.garlandisd.net/content/coronavirus-covid-19

 

6/17 Update: Return to school options

Garland ISD families will select from two options for their children when returning to school in August:

  • Option 1: Full-time in-person on campuses, with heightened hygiene and disinfection protocols 
  • Option 2:  Full-time virtual eLearning with district-provided technology and internet hotspots, as needed.

GISD has been advocating with the Texas Education Agency and state leadership to be able to offer these two options.

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7 minutes ago, gump said:

Few thoughts on this:

  • I'd never go to a car show even if there was no pandemic
  • They need to clarify if the 250 people rule applies to outdoor
  • I find the argument persuasive that you can't be ok with (and participate in) protests but not allow something like this to move forward.  Even if you try to take politics and/or social impact out of it, it doesn't make sense and just makes the conversation devolve in to a political one.
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1 minute ago, nirad3 said:

That would be interesting for sure.  As for my kids' school/classes/teachers, one of them (the 1st grader) was on top of things e-learning wise, while the other (3rd grade) was a disaster.

I bet it would help to have one central source that would handle all the e-learning, opening the teachers up to handling the in-class stuff.

A friend of mine is doing zoom learning this summer with a few of her 4 year old students whose parents want them to learn and be prepared for the next school year. Her preschool did virtual for about 6 weeks in March and April until the parents stopped paying. She learned alot from those 6 weeks. Her summer sessions are 2-3 times a week for 40-60 minutes,  focusing on phonics, subitizing and arithmetic. With some robotics thrown in for fun. She loaned them a box of manipulatives, including Ozobot. She gives the parents lesson plans, so they can continue to teach at home. 

The parents and students need to be motivated for it to work. The students already knew her, which helped. Delivering content virtually takes some experience.

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Bruce Patterson giving a TEDx talk on COVID-19 earlier today.  He knows as much about how this disease works as anyone.  Start around 12:50.

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1 minute ago, SoBeDad said:

The parents and students need to be motivated for it to work. The students already knew her, which helped. Delivering content virtually takes some experience.

I think this is a huge issue.  We expected teachers to be engaging content creators like they are youtube stars or something.

That's hard.  

Even at let's say the law school level, why can't people just read law books and take the bar?  Isn't the goal to pass the bar and be a lawyer?  Yet there are 1000? law schools setup to spoon feed this information.  People need some interaction.

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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

I think this is a huge issue.  We expected teachers to be engaging content creators like they are youtube stars or something.

That's hard.  

Even at let's say the law school level, why can't people just read law books and take the bar?  Isn't the goal to pass the bar and be a lawyer?  Yet there are 1000? law schools setup to spoon feed this information.  People need some interaction.

Law schools' education model makes very little sense.  

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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

https://www.garlandisd.net/content/coronavirus-covid-19

 

6/17 Update: Return to school options

Garland ISD families will select from two options for their children when returning to school in August:

  • Option 1: Full-time in-person on campuses, with heightened hygiene and disinfection protocols 
  • Option 2:  Full-time virtual eLearning with district-provided technology and internet hotspots, as needed.

GISD has been advocating with the Texas Education Agency and state leadership to be able to offer these two options.

I could see how this could work for elementary school kids, but not high school.  

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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

I think this is a huge issue.  We expected teachers to be engaging content creators like they are youtube stars or something.

That's hard.  

Even at let's say the law school level, why can't people just read law books and take the bar?  Isn't the goal to pass the bar and be a lawyer?  Yet there are 1000? law schools setup to spoon feed this information.  People need some interaction.

Most people take a bar review course at the end of their third year that confirms that most of your time spent studying in law school was wasted.

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14 minutes ago, the rover said:

I could see how this could work for elementary school kids, but not high school.  

I see it as the exact opposite but there are so many issues to solve I doubt any one group has an ideal situation

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1 hour ago, AAABatteries said:

Few thoughts on this:

  • I'd never go to a car show even if there was no pandemic
  • They need to clarify if the 250 people rule applies to outdoor
  • I find the argument persuasive that you can't be ok with (and participate in) protests but not allow something like this to move forward.  Even if you try to take politics and/or social impact out of it, it doesn't make sense and just makes the conversation devolve in to a political one.

I saw this last night in the context of the health department suing the event.

I'm not the target demographic either, but I was wondering if there were really going to be 100K there, as that sounds like the "usual" number, which you would expect to be lower this year.  Also didn't have a feel for how that is spread out - it's a multi-day festival and I assume it's a bit physically spread out too, so it won't quite be like 100K at a PSU game.  Still, doesn't seem like a great idea, although as you mention people see things like the huge Philly protest and decide that they've been given the silent all clear.

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32 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I see it as the exact opposite but there are so many issues to solve I doubt any one group has an ideal situation

Yea same here. I think high school teachers would have an easier transition to online learning than elementary teachers. I say that fro  experience as a high school teacher and knowing many elemeyand high school teachers.

Also think high school kids are already well versed in technology and have more ability to socialize outside school. 

I don't know though. Anecdotally, my kids elementary school teacher has been teaching for 35 years. She is incredible and loving and cares so much about the kids. She doesn't have a clue as to how to use technology to teach though.  And expecting her to learn it I. 2 weeks, or over a whole summer even, is unrealistic. 

If e-learning is our new reality we have to pour billions of dollars into curriculum development and teacher training. 

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4 hours ago, The Commish said:

This is my local "go to" news source....they are pretty decent and keep their opinions out of the news for the most part.  Of course, I wish they'd focus less on shootings etc, but beggars can't be choosers.  I'd be pretty confident in their reporting.  As I said up just a bit, the spin zone is in full effect here and the press conference yesterday was a complete train wreck.  I don't see how anyone came out of that thing with a clear picture of anything so this sort of incorrect information doesn't surprise me at all.  He's doing everything he can to explain away all the new cases and positivity rate going up and in doing so, it appears he's shooting himself in the foot.  Oddly enough, if he'd just have stuck to the reality, it shines a much more favorable light on the situation than his attempt at spin.

It's tough for Florida.  I never try to excuse politicians, but he's in a tough spot.  The budget is built around tourism and a huge portion comes in the summer.  Now he's got Disney planning to open and the NBA planning to play in Orlando.  

Yet cases are spiking.  It's a no-win situation, but he does seem to be handling it as poorly as possible.

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2 hours ago, the moops said:

Yea same here. I think high school teachers would have an easier transition to online learning than elementary teachers. I say that fro  experience as a high school teacher and knowing many elemeyand high school teachers.

Also think high school kids are already well versed in technology and have more ability to socialize outside school. 

I don't know though. Anecdotally, my kids elementary school teacher has been teaching for 35 years. She is incredible and loving and cares so much about the kids. She doesn't have a clue as to how to use technology to teach though.  And expecting her to learn it I. 2 weeks, or over a whole summer even, is unrealistic. 

If e-learning is our new reality we have to pour billions of dollars into curriculum development and teacher training. 

I'm not talking about transitioning to e-learning.  I'm talking about centralizing the curriculum and separating independent teachers from e-learning.  How does that work in high school?  Good luck with your AP classes, kids!  

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I just caught some of Duceys press conference in Az.

He is leaving it up to mayors to mandate mask wearing. I have been wearing one the whole time but I am definitely the minority. I hope that changes but I doubt it.

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1 hour ago, shader said:

It's tough for Florida.  I never try to excuse politicians, but he's in a tough spot.  The budget is built around tourism and a huge portion comes in the summer.  Now he's got Disney planning to open and the NBA planning to play in Orlando.  

Yet cases are spiking.  It's a no-win situation, but he does seem to be handling it as poorly as possible.

Agreed. Now the spike is due to more testing and results piling up from a while ago. I don’t buy it since the documented positive cases are also increasing at a higher rate. It’s sad to me that if it’s old cases, then poor decisions were made a while ago. If they’re new cases, then the economy is more important. Bad form imo. 

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41 minutes ago, -fish- said:

I'm not talking about transitioning to e-learning.  I'm talking about centralizing the curriculum and separating independent teachers from e-learning.  How does that work in high school?  Good luck with your AP classes, kids!  

I'm stunned people are fixated at the high school level.  That seems the easiest to solve. What am I missing?  

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What qualifies as a spike?

Since early May there have been news reports of spikes all over the country and in many cases they settled after a few days. I'm not saying there won't be spikes, I fully expect there to be some in certain places around the US but there needs to be some sort of definition of what constitutes a true spike and what is an increase in cases and hospitalizations. A spike needs to be addressed immediately whereas an increase in cases and hospitalizations should be monitored and not blown out of proportion by the media.

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2 hours ago, shader said:

It's tough for Florida.  I never try to excuse politicians, but he's in a tough spot.  The budget is built around tourism and a huge portion comes in the summer.  Now he's got Disney planning to open and the NBA planning to play in Orlando.  

Yet cases are spiking.  It's a no-win situation, but he does seem to be handling it as poorly as possible.

He could have made this much easier on himself from requiring masks at all times to shutting things down to a level other areas of the country shut down.  He can't hide the issues here...they are there for all to see.  There's no point in trying to spin at this point.  It just makes him look foolish.

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5 minutes ago, jamny said:

What qualifies as a spike?

Since early May there have been news reports of spikes all over the country and in many cases they settled after a few days. I'm not saying there won't be spikes, I fully expect there to be some in certain places around the US but there needs to be some sort of definition of what constitutes a true spike and what is an increase in cases and hospitalizations. A spike needs to be addressed immediately whereas an increase in cases and hospitalizations should be monitored and not blown out of proportion by the media.

How about doubling (or more) your daily case count and/or doubling(or more) your positivity rate?

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7 hours ago, tjnc09 said:basically the flu.  That’s very thoughtful you noticed I was gone though.

...basically the flu.

:mellow:

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13 minutes ago, The Commish said:

How about doubling (or more) your daily case count and/or doubling(or more) your positivity rate?

Over how many days? If that happens 3 or 4 days in a row...sure.

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I just think there will be some "boy who cried wolf" effect if every increase is described as a spike.

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https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6922e1.htm?s_cid=mm6922e1_w#suggestedcitation

basically, if I am reading that right, though it is a still ongoing study (testing old lab samples, etc.) there is not any evidence yet from any of the 4 pools of data they used (syndromic surveillance, virus surveillance, phylogenetic analysis, and retrospectively identified cases) that COVID was here in the US prior to late January

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45 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I'm stunned people are fixated at the high school level.  That seems the easiest to solve. What am I missing?  

Grades that matter for going to college?  The fact that all 3rd graders are doing the same thing but high schoolers have 6 different classes?  Having a “centralized” curriculum doesn’t work when you have a few hundred kids, all taking different schedules.

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27 minutes ago, jamny said:

Over how many days? If that happens 3 or 4 days in a row...sure.

Covid: hold my beer

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2 hours ago, shader said:

It's tough for Florida.  I never try to excuse politicians, but he's in a tough spot.  The budget is built around tourism and a huge portion comes in the summer.  Now he's got Disney planning to open and the NBA planning to play in Orlando.  

Yet cases are spiking.  It's a no-win situation, but he does seem to be handling it as poorly as possible.

Meh. Hawaii is more dependent on tourism, and we’re taking a much more measured approach to re-opening.

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2 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Covid: hold my beer

Like I said, I expect it to happen and even expect a second wave. We should just reserve the heightened terminology for when it really happens, not a 1% increase.

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17 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Meh. Hawaii is more dependent on tourism, and we’re taking a much more measured approach to re-opening.

Hawaii is gonna get crushed when tourism kicks back in.  

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1 hour ago, prosopis said:

I just caught some of Duceys press conference in Az.

He is leaving it up to mayors to mandate mask wearing. I have been wearing one the whole time but I am definitely the minority. I hope that changes but I doubt it.

Seems like a lot of the mayors are putting a mandate in place. I’d guess that if it’s hit or miss, some of the chain businesses will put a policy in place for the whole metro area.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, chet said:

Bruce Patterson giving a TEDx talk on COVID-19 earlier today.  He knows as much about how this disease works as anyone.  Start around 12:50.

Interesting talk. If it pans out, I think the challenge will be determining when to use leronlimab. There are a lot of inflammatory markers used in medicine, and tmk none of them are specific enough upon which to base targeted therapy. Maybe RANTES is different. 

The cost of therapy is also likely to be a problem. Monoclonal antibodies are among the most expensive drugs available, costing thousands-tens of thousands of dollars per dose. Used as cancer immunotherapy, they’ve already pushed the envelope for cost effectiveness. Some of the $ may be offset by saved days of ICU care, but it may be difficult to get insurers to foot the bill for tens of thousands (or more) patients. And that’s just in this county, as it’s doubtful such a drug can be produced at a scale to manage the pandemic elsewhere, especially the developing world.

I hope it continues to show promise. In the meantime, maybe more low tech alternatives like dexamethasone can keep the immune system in check.

Edited by Terminalxylem

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33 minutes ago, the rover said:

Hawaii is gonna get crushed when tourism kicks back in.  

That’s the concern, but thankfully our leadership hasn’t caved into the tourism industry yet.

I mentioned this upthread, but we’re actually considering reopening to international tourism before that from the US mainland, as places like Japan, Korea and New Zealand are doing a much better job than the US.

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1 hour ago, jamny said:

What qualifies as a spike?

Since early May there have been news reports of spikes all over the country and in many cases they settled after a few days. I'm not saying there won't be spikes, I fully expect there to be some in certain places around the US but there needs to be some sort of definition of what constitutes a true spike and what is an increase in cases and hospitalizations. A spike needs to be addressed immediately whereas an increase in cases and hospitalizations should be monitored and not blown out of proportion by the media.

I don’t think the media is blowing anything out of proportion.  

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1 hour ago, Terminalxylem said:

Meh. Hawaii is more dependent on tourism, and we’re taking a much more measured approach to re-opening.

I’m sad to say that I know very little about how it works in Hawaii.  I’d love to change that though!

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