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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
joffer
Footballguy
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Are masks mandatory? That is the one HUGE flaw in the Texas strategy that greatly reduces it's effectiveness.
the moops
Footballguy
Are there tons though? I don't know the answer but it seems that most of the asymptomatic people testing positive are athletes and protestors. Who are all these other people that were treated just cause they wanted to be tested?
Yeah looks like they took it a step further but imagine that the closing will continue to expand in the next couple weeks. Previously some of the bars/breweries were able to open sooner if they offer food or have a partnership with a restaurant to provide food, we’ll see if that means anything here.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Roche Holdings?
I don't know much about it. It missed my covid cure plays, but I was definitely taking a shotgun approach to this. At least it's comforting that so many people are work on Covid treatments.
Do you know anything about the billions we were supposed sending to ASTRAZENECA?
kutta
Footballguy
This state is ####ed. I was up in Prescott Saturday. They had a bluegrass festival in the town square and there were hundreds of people there. I counted maybe 10 with masks on, and that's being generous. I was going to video it and post it, but I thought better of it.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
That's what Texas mayors requested. Abbott denied them. Guy can't help dicking up his state.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Only if the hospitals are overwhelmed. I give changes in management/therapeutics some credit, but healthcare resources are the single most important variable IMO. I don’t think there is enough evidence to support the virus mutating to wimpier version.
ETA As others have commented, testing availability makes those comparisons fairly meaningless.
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DallasDMac
Footballguy
San Antonio doctors at our largest hospital just held a press conference to say that, despite what numbers are being touted, COVID patients are being forced to wait in the ER waiting room because there are no beds to put them in. Not confidence inspiring.
prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
I was just in a dollar general. Signs about masks every where. I was the only one in there with a mask and yes that includes the employees. Last time I go to that store.
Don’t expect to see big increaseS in cases in AZ like in Florida anytime soon. Quest Labs does about 80% of the tests in Arizona and they’re unable to increase their daily capacity leaving daily tests maxed at 15,000 and cases in the 3000-4000 range. Unless something changes or % positives increase, new positives will remain consistent but test results will be very backlogged.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hey Winz,
Do you have the concrete data on the death count in CT vs AZ, TX and FL? I know you have posted stuff similar, was wondering where you find that information, thanks.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I was reading 40-45%+ of the deaths occurred in nursing homes which when you combine that with Florida probably having one of the largest numbers of nursing homes of any State, it is odd that there are not more deaths in Florida. Is it possible Florida will catch up?
prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
Press conference that Ducey had in Az gave a website but I did not write it down.
prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
and all I wanted was some red vines. I will be pist if I got covid buying licorice for my fat ###.
MTskibum
Footballguy
Houston is not looking good either, we are back to 1 trip to a grocery store a week at a slow time and washing our groceries. It really does suck to wash groceries, and I am unsure what benefit it provides, however I will take that precaution right now.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Florida will undoubtedly see a spike in nursing home deaths, but it's unlikely to be as bad as it was in the northeast in April, if only because we know more about the virus today than we did then.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
CA is a mess. Path towards complete shutdown. Beaches, bars and more. All-time record of cases today and every metric up. Hospitalizations, ICU beds - you name it
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
My relatively informed opinion on this topic:
The average person, with average exposure risk, should wear a face covering of some sort when indoors with other people, and outdoors if unable to maintain social distancing. They should fit snugly over the mouth and nose, with the metal band up and molded over the bridge of the nose. While N95+ are better than surgical are better than cloth masks, the general public doesn't need the high-end masks for source control, which is the primary goal of masks. Most surgical masks are intended to be single use, as moisture from your breath degrades them over time, but a reused mask is better than nothing. When donning and doffing the mask, consider the outer surface contaminated, so minimize contact with it and sanitize your hands after handling.
The general public doesn't need face shields or goggles, but they probably incrementally decrease risk a small amount.
Gloves aren't needed for regular interactions (ie. not involving potential exposure to infected body fluids) either, as hand washing works just as well, provided you're doing it right - 20+ seconds warm water + soap, paying attention to cleanse the entire hand/fingers/nails/etc. Hand sanitizer is a decent surrogate while on-the-go, but avoid methanol-based cleansers, as they can be absorbed through the skin.
Everybody should practice good cough hygiene (cough into inner elbow, away from others) and be extra diligent about hand hygiene when touching high use surfaces. And avoid crowded areas/events for the foreseeable future.
Kids won't likely follow any of these rules, so I don't think the people contemplating limiting school openings are idiots by any means. I know some parents are at wits end, but that doesn't change our risk appraisal when considering our course of action.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
T J
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
No, it's not, as you'll likely never know the full picture wrt asymptomatic infection. It's the difference between case fatality and infection fatality rates, with the former being cited far more frequently when infectious disease mortality is discussed - not just COVID-19.
If you get admitted to the ICU and placed on a ventilator, and your family asks "what are his chances?", how do you think the doctor should respond?
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
What number is “low enough”? What measures need to be taken to get there? How long will it take it to get there?
i know that no one has the “right” answer, I’m just curious of your rough estimate on this. Because I think to really know what to do, we need at least some rough estimate to shoot for.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Mayor of SA just did his daily COVID brief. Our second straight week of ICU and Ventilator patients doubling in a seven day period. DOUBLING in SEVEN days. Abbott has announced a press conference tomorrow. I pray it is for him to announce that he is going to do what needs to be done. If he doesn't allow cities to mandate masks and back that up with the power to fine and punish individuals, it will be for nothing.
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tri-man 47
Footballguy
That's what I'm thinking as well ...they know nursing homes are "hot spots," and can take precautions.
Doug B
Footballguy
Re: the bolded — few home-brew face coverings have metal bands like this. I associate those more with true PPE (medical, hazardous material, construction, etc).
Culdeus might get to thinking “Wait — does my face covering NEED a metal band to do any good?” So far as I’m aware, the answer is “No, a metal band is not required for an adequate source-control face covering.”
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Oh, one bit of good news. My FIL who is in a home tested negative for CORONA, but did have mild pneumonia. He is out of quarantine and back in his room this evening.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
NY appears to be putting the brakes on opening up.
And they are in very different situations. In all this time, CA has never gotten below 4% positivity. Ever. 4 is pretty solid. Same range many of the "doing pretty well" states are now that are opening up. Sort of like FL was on Memorial Day.
But NY has been below 2% for nearly an entire month now, and is hovering around 1% now. It's a pretty big difference. They seem to have it "under control" in a way that's not comparable to other states.
Now, what you mention.....what happens to NY when the do open up? That is the trillion dollar question. I don't know what happens. But I'll say that if NY keeps the clamps down another week or so, keeps crushing it, then opens up and all hell breaks loose, that will be so demoralizing.
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shader
Footballguy
I'm totally with you. We definitely need a rough estimate to shoot for. Fortunately we have an entire world full of success stories. I'd find countries that got it right, and come up with a similar "per capita" number that will work for the USA as a goal to shoot for. Or maybe as a goal for individual states to shoot for.
We know lockdowns and quarantines work. We know that if they happen long enough and are followed by mask usage (europe/japan/SK/China) and contact tracing, numbers can stay low for a significant period of time after the initial wave.
We also know that NO COUNTRY has yet won this battle. Some are winning, but it takes vigilance. As good as Germany is doing for example, if they got lackadaisical, the virus would come roaring back. But I'd rather be in Germany than the USA right now.
shader
Footballguy
There are a lot of areas on a path towards a complete shutdown. It's just a matter of time. Really sad to see it get to this point so soon, but here we are.
Some states will experiment with stopgap measures they they hope will slow the spread, but reality will bite them and then they will shut down.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Sure. I guess I'm giving Culdeus too much credit.
But people are making this far more complicated than necessary.
shader
Footballguy
Agree, very interesting test case.
Nyc has advantages (20% should be immune)
NYC has disadvantages (population density, public transport)
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I'm not optimistic, but excluding convalescent plasma, it's probably gotten the most press of the potential immunotherapies.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
Per Covid worldometers, of the countries that have done more than 100,000 tests ...the U.S. stands at 17th for tests per million. I mean, we're even behind Belarus. 
Doug B
Footballguy
Keep in mind what culdeus originally asked and how he phrased it:
I feel like I follow this super close, I watch the major youtube channels, follow the reddit subs, and look at the international coverage and I have NO ####### IDEA what PPE is effective or necessary to go get a 12 oz. ribeye.
The advice to the public had been a mish-mash for almost two months. Too often, advice specific to medical-setting PPE was given to ‘civilians’ who never needed that level of vigilance. Instructions meant for fit-tested N95s in medical settings didn’t apply to cloth face coverings at the grocery, but public health advisors rarely made the difference clear. That left a lot of people confused about what level of protection was necessary to make the exercise of face covering worthwhile — and gave many people a mental out to eschew face coverings altogether.
culdeus
Footballguy
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B088C1PPR8/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o08_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
What of this?
Has a nose piece, can put the filter in but what I can tell the filter doesn't matter. (yes/no)
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Full disclosure: In part because of his choice of words (or my reading comprehension), I often don't follow culdeus' posts.
I know the information has been conflicting, particularly early in the pandemic. But at this point, most expert guidance finally seems to be on the same page.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Probably has not been tested extensively to give a definitive answer, but adding the filter may increase the level of personal protection a modest amount. And adding layers to just about any mask improves its value for source control, which is the primary reason for donning these masks in the first place. Not sure it's been posted, but here is a discussion of some of the issues with cloth masks.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
So apparently Universal is open and has been for a few days or a while. Sources report there was no one there this past weekend and you could walk right on to just about any ride in the park. Now I am an outspoken hater of most of these places of late however I know several peeps going tomorrow and will have more details.
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James Pethokoukis
@JimPethokoukis
GOLDMAN SACHS: "We find a national [facemask] mandate could ... cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0pp to 0.6% ... a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP."
@JimPethokoukis
GOLDMAN SACHS: "We find a national [facemask] mandate could ... cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0pp to 0.6% ... a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP."
