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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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18 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Interesting talk. If it pans out, I think the challenge will be determining when to use leronlimab. There are a lot of inflammatory markers used in medicine, and tmk none of them are specific enough upon which to base targeted therapy. Maybe RANTES is different. 

The cost of therapy is also likely to be a problem. Monoclonal antibodies are among the most expensive drugs available, costing thousands-tens of thousands of dollars per dose. Used as cancer immunotherapy, they’ve already pushed the envelope for cost effectiveness. Some of the $ may be offset by saved days of ICU care, but it may be difficult to get insurers to foot the bill for tens of thousands (or more) patients. And that’s just in this county, as it’s doubtful such a drug can be produced at a scale to manage the pandemic elsewhere, especially the developing world.

I hope it continues to show promise. In the meantime, maybe more low tech alternatives like hydrocortisone can keep the immune system in check.

Nothing definitive yet but I've heard talk of $1000-1500/dose.  Most patients will require 2 does with some mild cases being fine with 1 and some critical cases needing 3.  Each dose is 2 vials given subcutaneously to either side of the abdomen so a hospital stay isn't required for the mild/moderate cases.  In terms of when to start therapy, mild/moderate cases are exhibiting 5x normal rantes levels so that could be a staring point for patients.

CytoDyn has 1.5MM vials on order for 2020 which is enough to treat 375K patients.  They have 5MM vials ordered for 2021.

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2 minutes ago, shader said:

I’m sad to say that I know very little about how it works in Hawaii.  I’d love to change that though!

We are extremely dependent on tourism, going from near the lowest unemployment to highest in the nation since SARS-COV-2 arrived. Despite that, and a huge Asian population with ties to early hotspots, we’ve kept our numbers low. I attribute this largely to a more compliant population, with greater comfort wearing masks and following rules in the face of hardship. Additionally, we shut things down relatively early and are reopening more slowly than other places, nearly in line with the guidelines set forth by the federal government.

Tourism will be our downfall, but currently every visitor must quarantine for 2 weeks after arrival (and it’s enforced!) + there is talk of mandating testing before prospective tourists leave their place of origin. Personally, I hope we use this opportunity to explore ways to build a more locally sustainable economy, though that’s probably a pipe dream.

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5 minutes ago, chet said:

Nothing definitive yet but I've heard talk of $1000-1500/dose.  Most patients will require 2 does with some mild cases being fine with 1 and some critical cases needing 3.  Each dose is 2 vials given subcutaneously to either side of the abdomen so a hospital stay isn't required for the mild/moderate cases.  In terms of when to start therapy, mild/moderate cases are exhibiting 5x normal rantes levels so that could be a staring point for patients.

CytoDyn has 1.5MM vials on order for 2020 which is enough to treat 375K patients.  They have 5MM vials ordered for 2021.

That would be incredible if those prices and production holds up, though it still may be a tough sell for more mild cases.

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So encouraging to look at European countries like Italy, Spain, Germany and France. Great numbers from them.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, jamny said:

Over how many days? If that happens 3 or 4 days in a row...sure.

Well, it's not going 3%, 6% the next day, 12% the next, but we've had well over a thousand more cases a day this week (and end of last week) and a positivity rate was 9ish% yesterday and over 10% today (first time that's happened through this whole fiasco).  Prior to Mem Day we were in the 700-800 range with a few days hitting 1K...now we are averaging over 1K per day.   I think we hit over 2K today (need to verify, but thought I heard that on the news)

Edited by The Commish

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, The Commish said:

Well, it's not going 3%, 6% the next day, 12% the next, but we've had well over a thousand more cases a day this week (and end of last week) and a positivity rate was 9ish% yesterday and over 10% today (first time that's happened through this whole fiasco).  Prior to Mem Day we were in the 700-800 range with a few days hitting 1K...now we are averaging over 1K per day.   I think we hit over 2K today (need to verify, but thought I heard that on the news)

Daily testing numbers for Florida, since 1 June:

17 Jun - 2610/25462 = 10.25%
16 Jun - 2783/30133 = 9.24%
15 Jun - 1758/21172 = 8.30%
14 Jun - 2016/38591 = 5.22%
13 Jun - 2581/34506 = 7.48%
12 Jun - 1902/29167 = 6.52%
11 Jun - 1698/27725 = 6.12%
10 Jun - 1371/20720 = 6.62%
9 Jun - 1096/23770 = 4.61%
8 Jun - 966/18408 = 5.25%
7 Jun - 1180/41999 = 2.81%
6 Jun - 1270/39241 = 3.24%
5 Jun - 1305/27913 = 4.68%
4 Jun - 1419/26127 = 5.43%
3 Jun - 1317/31154 = 4.23%
2 Jun - 617/9353 = 6.60%
1 Jun - 667/19053 = 3.50%

A steady positivity increase over the last 2.5 weeks.  The thing that stood out to me was the last 3 days.  The last time Florida was over 8% positive was 23 April (not counting a glitch on 16 May, where the rate was 74.78%).  Three consecutive record setting days is troubling for sure. 

Deaths are declining, but slowly.  Broken down into 7 day periods:

11 - 17 Jun = 217
4 - 10 Jun = 235
28 May - 3 Jun = 247
21 - 27 May = 223
14 - 20 May = 269
7 - 13 May = 288
30 Apr - 6 May = 321
23 - 29 Apr = 291
16 - 22 Apr = 313
9 - 15 Apr = 291
2 - 8 Apr = 222
26 Mar - 1 Apr = 78

New daily hospitalizations since 1 June is also a concern:

17 - 183
16 - 191
15 - 73
14 - 68
13 - 168
12  135
11 - 226
10 - 160
9 - 177
8 - 66
7 - 51
6 - 97
5 - 142
4 - 127
3 - 113
2 - 181
1 - 41
 

Edited by TheWinz

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Posted (edited)

Honestly, I didn't know we had that many days over 2000 as of late.  I've kinda checked out on looking at our data after finding out management was trying to include/exclude things a month or so ago.  I had mentioned a few weeks ago that the Belle Glade area was getting hit really hard...that continues.  They still are around 96-97% capacity...it's been that way for about a month.

Edited by The Commish

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11 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Honestly, I didn't know we had that many days over 2000 as of late.  I've kinda checked out on looking at our data after finding out management was trying to include/exclude things a month or so ago.  I had mentioned a few weeks ago that the Belle Glade area was getting hit really hard...that continues.  They still are around 96-97% capacity...it's been that way for about a month.

I mean if these are the “good” numbers, I shudder to think what it’s really like. 

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12 minutes ago, Sammy3469 said:

I mean if these are the “good” numbers, I shudder to think what it’s really like. 

We’ve already seen what happens when covid takes over.  Florida is a ticking time bomb and unless immediate and firm action is taken, there’s no way to stop it. What we don’t know is how long it will take to devolve to that point, as the virus is spreading slower now than it did in Italy, NY, etc.

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2 minutes ago, shader said:

We’ve already seen what happens when covid takes over.  Florida is a ticking time bomb and unless immediate and firm action is taken, there’s no way to stop it. What we don’t know is how long it will take to devolve to that point, as the virus is spreading slower now than it did in Italy, NY, etc.

Stop it.  You're so over the top.  DeSantis could shut bars back down and immediately snuff out this "spike."  There was nothing like this following the initial Phase 1 opening in May. 

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1 minute ago, Grahamburn said:

Stop it.  You're so over the top.  DeSantis could shut bars back down and immediately snuff out this "spike."  There was nothing like this following the initial Phase 1 opening in May. 

Perhaps you missed where I said “unless immediate and firm action is taken”. Is DeSantis about to shut things down again?  

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2 minutes ago, shader said:

Perhaps you missed where I said “unless immediate and firm action is taken”. Is DeSantis about to shut things down again?  

Hell no.....the spin he's attempting should be evidence enough that he is full steam ahead.  That said, I think the ONE thing that would give him pause is if this caught on in the nursing homes, long term care facilities and The Villages.  That MIGHT get him to do something at a state level.

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And there was way more than just bars being opened in phase 2.....it includes all retail being fully opened, groups up to 50 people allowed, gyms, nail/hair, movie theaters, amusement parks (all but Disney have opened in some fashion).

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Arizona

- Have increased their ventilator supply from 1122 (26 March) to 1847 as of 16 June.  During that span, there has been a slow and steady climb in usage from 21 to 39 percent.

- Have increased their ICU beds from 1199 (26 March) to 1661 as of 16 June.  During that span, there has been a slow and steady climb in usage from 62 to 83 percent.

- Not all people admitted to a hospital are put on a ventilator or into an ICU unit.  Even the milder cases requiring basic hospitalization are on the rise too.  There was a dip for a couple weeks in mid-May, but things have picked up since then.

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34 minutes ago, The Commish said:

And there was way more than just bars being opened in phase 2.....it includes all retail being fully opened, groups up to 50 people allowed, gyms, nail/hair, movie theaters, amusement parks (all but Disney have opened in some fashion).

True.  However, all of those other businesses can typically open with some kind of precautions.  Bars can't, and it's fairly obvious to me considering the demographics of the new cases what type of behavior would cause a spike like this. 

That being said, even if they stay open, Florida isn't a "ticking time bomb." 

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4 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

True.  However, all of those other businesses can typically open with some kind of precautions.  Bars can't, and it's fairly obvious to me considering the demographics of the new cases what type of behavior would cause a spike like this. 

That being said, even if they stay open, Florida isn't a "ticking time bomb." 

Bars are part of it...a larger part is the farm workers...it's spreading through those crews and processing areas like wild fire...at least in South Florida.  I won't go as far as to say that the bomb is getting ready to explode, but the fuse has been lit in my opinion.  It was lit the day we started opening up with no real decrease in any meaningful metric.  Now, it very well might be that we can manage it given the testing, but positivity rate increasing like it has with all the ways different ways to get tested is definitely cause for concern in my view.

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Took the family out yesterday, as it was the start of Phase 2 in Connecticut.  Restaurants were allowed to open for inside dining, but many chose not to, at least in my neck of the woods.  I dunno if I'm ready for inside dining anyway.  We ate outside at a nice seafood place, masks worn by customers until they were seated, and staff had them on the whole time.  Plastic utensils, cups, little salt & pepper packets, paper menus, the works.  I remember thinking as I left, $150 seems crazy for a table of 3 when you are eating off a paper plate with a plastic fork.  It was only the second time we ate out as a family since mid-March, and that was outside as well, in a parking lot of a hamburger joint.

Our next stop was Best Buy.  This stop was for my son, of course.  You could not enter the store without a mask, and they literally forced every customer to use their Purell at the entrance, which they had roped off.  It was like trying to get into an exclusive nightclub.  You know, the ones with the big bouncer, deciding who gets in and who doesn't.  I loved it!  Then it was on to Books A Million for my wife.  Again, 100% mask compliance, but the Purell Nazi wasn't there to greet us.

Overall, I think the county I live in will take it pretty slow for a while.  One of the main reasons is testing.  Testing has picked up big time here in CT, but not in my county, because we haven't been hit nearly as hard as the southwestern side of the state.

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6 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

True.  However, all of those other businesses can typically open with some kind of precautions.  Bars can't, and it's fairly obvious to me considering the demographics of the new cases what type of behavior would cause a spike like this. 

That being said, even if they stay open, Florida isn't a "ticking time bomb." 

it’s not necessarily the bars opening that causes it, it’s the mentality that goes with it. If people can party in the bars, why should keep wearing a mask? If protestors can be in the streets marching, why can’t I have a graduation party with family and friends?

The scenes at bars are bad but spikes are likely due to overall behavior changes. That’s the worrisome part because you shutdown bars but you can’t force people to start caring again.

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Bars have to be one of the biggest cause of spread. I don't get how people can be packed together already, all yelling over the music, no masks.

We went out to eat to an Italian restaurant in Boise a couple of weeks ago. Reservations required by app where you answer questions. and they explain their procedures. Menu is on the phone using QR code. Waiters in mask and gloves. They don't pour the wine, just put the bottle on the table. Our waiter said they have to wait 3 seconds after speaking before leaning in to place the food down. Meanwhile, as the waiter pointed out, right across the street was a packed bar with zero precautions being made. He stated that the restaurant doesn't care because they just don't want to be shut down again. 

A couple of days later, the bar across the street was on a list of bars where some people were shown to have spread.  5 positive, 5 more from the group being monitored. No idea how many more now have it. Boise is not a big city, I don't get how they can't have cops going around to monitor places to make sure they are complying with regulations. Nearly a dozen bars on a list where this group went to over the weekend.

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27 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

True.  However, all of those other businesses can typically open with some kind of precautions.  Bars can't, and it's fairly obvious to me considering the demographics of the new cases what type of behavior would cause a spike like this. 

That being said, even if they stay open, Florida isn't a "ticking time bomb." 

It's an expression.  If you're going to literally hang on that expression, you'll be able to turn it into anything you want it to mean.

I just read a scientist talk about Florida being a potentially catastrophic situation.  This is a big deal, don't act like it's not.  There have been people mocking those of us that take this seriously for literally 4 months in this thread.  It means nothing to me, as I can tell you have no idea what's going on, nor do you really wish to discuss the facts.  You're here to mock.

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4 minutes ago, jamny said:

I don't get how they can't have cops going around to monitor places to make sure they are complying with regulations.

No cop wants to be the next one showing up on social media using excessive force, especially just to break up a bunch of people having a good time at a bar.

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5 minutes ago, shader said:

It's an expression.  If you're going to literally hang on that expression, you'll be able to turn it into anything you want it to mean.

I just read a scientist talk about Florida being a potentially catastrophic situation.  This is a big deal, don't act like it's not.  There have been people mocking those of us that take this seriously for literally 4 months in this thread.  It means nothing to me, as I can tell you have no idea what's going on, nor do you really wish to discuss the facts.  You're here to mock.

And you're here to sensationalize and use hyberbolic expressions.  Whether it's a big deal or not depends on perspective.  I won't bother replying to or quoting you anymore.  We can agree to disagree. 

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Just now, Grahamburn said:

And you're here to sensationalize and use hyberbolic expressions.  Whether it's a big deal or not depends on perspective.  I won't bother replying to or quoting you anymore.  We can agree to disagree. 

Excellent!

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5 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

No cop wants to be the next one showing up on social media using excessive force, especially just to break up a bunch of people having a good time at a bar.

No excessive force. Fine the owners if they don't comply wit the regulations.

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7 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

No cop wants to be the next one showing up on social media using excessive force, especially just to break up a bunch of people having a good time at a bar.

meh....easy enough to go to the ownership/managers and tell them to shut it down or heck, fine the crap out of them...plenty of ways to go about it, but they won't, at least not here.  They don't have the support of the state.

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Went out to eat and did outdoor dining last night in NC. People at different tables are supposed to be spaced at least 6’ apart. Seemed much closer to 4 or 5 where we were. Employees don’t have to wear masks and our waitress didn’t which didn’t thrill me. The only reason I didn’t leave is that they had floor fans setup blowing away from the tables, so it was essentially blowing from us towards her. In retrospect I should have asked when making the reservation because we just wouldn’t have gone. 

I think outdoor stuff is fine, but if someone is leaning down putting a plate of food in front of me, their mouth is way too close to my head for my comfort. And you start adding up how many people that server is coming into contact with over a week and it’s a bit disconcerting.

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2 minutes ago, jamny said:

No excessive force. Fine the owners if they don't comply wit the regulations.

Hopefully it would be that easy, but sadly, I am 100% sure we will see multiple videos of cops using force to break up gatherings.  It's hard to imagine a scenario where a cop shows up to a crowded bar, avoids all the patrons, finds the owner, issues the ticket, and then leaves the premises without incident.

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2 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Went out to eat and did outdoor dining last night in NC. People at different tables are supposed to be spaced at least 6’ apart. Seemed much closer to 4 or 5 where we were. Employees don’t have to wear masks and our waitress didn’t which didn’t thrill me. The only reason I didn’t leave is that they had floor fans setup blowing away from the tables, so it was essentially blowing from us towards her. In retrospect I should have asked when making the reservation because we just wouldn’t have gone. 

I think outdoor stuff is fine, but if someone is leaning down putting a plate of food in front of me, their mouth is way too close to my head for my comfort. And you start adding up how many people that server is coming into contact with over a week and it’s a bit disconcerting.

The first place we went out to eat, the waitress had a mask on and I was still a little uneasy.

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11 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

That would be incredible if those prices and production holds up, though it still may be a tough sell for more mild cases.

Double blind placebo controlled phase 2 just completed with ~85 mild-moderate patients.  The hope is that the data will show that drug patients didn't progress to severe-critical stage.  If true, the price is well worth it IMO.  Last patient enrolled on June 15 and the study has a 14-day end point so the data should be compiled and submitted to the FDA by mid-July.

They are also submitting interim data from 51 severe-critical patients in a DBPC phase 2b/3 trial on a similar timeframe as above.

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6 minutes ago, chet said:

Double blind placebo controlled phase 2

Holy cow, that's a mouthful!  At this point I'm wondering if I am one of their patients?

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13 minutes ago, TheWinz said:
21 minutes ago, chet said:

Double blind placebo controlled phase 2

Holy cow, that's a mouthful!  At this point I'm wondering if I am one of their patients?

We all are.

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1 hour ago, jamny said:

Bars have to be one of the biggest cause of spread. I don't get how people can be packed together already, all yelling over the music, no masks.

This.

Drunk people who haven't seen each other in months, yelling and telling tales of what they have been up to. No thanks

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38 minutes ago, TheWinz said:
46 minutes ago, jamny said:

No excessive force. Fine the owners if they don't comply wit the regulations.

Hopefully it would be that easy, but sadly, I am 100% sure we will see multiple videos of cops using force to break up gatherings.  It's hard to imagine a scenario where a cop shows up to a crowded bar, avoids all the patrons, finds the owner, issues the ticket, and then leaves the premises without incident

Would it be the police or code enforcement? 

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1 hour ago, Biff84 said:

If protestors can be in the streets marching, why can’t I have a graduation party with family and friends?

I know you're explaining a mindset, not advocating it. So this comment is just for the house in general:

I do not understand why "the protestors" ever get invoked in discussions about COVID-19 response. Were people thinking that public health officials were somehow sanctioning the protests in advance? That the protestors sought health-risk clearance from authority before protesting?

And in the aftermath ... were people really expecting commentators to say things like "No message is important enough -- shame on those protestors for endangering public health! Shame, shame, shame!"

The protestors were never sanctioned or excused by those advocating for solid public-health measures against COVID-19. The protests functioned completely outside of the public-health system -- permission was not sought, and no authority was in position to grant such permission even it had been sought.

Therefore, any statements starting with "If the protestors can do X ..." is a false equivalence.

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The next couple of weeks may be key for these new hotspots. If they can’t slow down the spread before the 4th of July parties, it’s gonna be a long summer.

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5 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I know you're explaining a mindset, not advocating it. So this comment is just for the house in general:

I do not understand why "the protestors" ever get invoked in discussions about COVID-19 response. Were people thinking that public health officials were somehow sanctioning the protests in advance? That the protestors sought health-risk clearance from authority before protesting?

And in the aftermath ... were people really expecting commentators to say things like "No message is important enough -- shame on those protestors for endangering public health! Shame, shame, shame!"

The protestors were never sanctioned or excused by those advocating for solid public-health measures against COVID-19. The protests functioned completely outside of the public-health system -- permission was not sought, and no authority was in position to grant such permission even it had been sought.

Therefore, any statements starting with "If the protestors can do X ..." is a false equivalence.

Like you said, purely describing a mindset, not my belief at all. But my mindset matters very little compared to the general public and they saw the protests and they saw the media covering that and not COVID for a couple weeks and it plays into their narrative that they shouldn’t care about COVID anymore. I hope the rise in cases in AZ will change that but I’m not too confident it will.

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1 minute ago, shader said:

+3,207 in Florida

That's a huge number, but how many tests?

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53 minutes ago, jamny said:

No excessive force. Fine the owners if they don't comply wit the regulations.

Revoke liquor licenses.

In New Orleans, I have heard (but cannot find a link) that Mayor Latoya Cantrell herself was walking into establishments and shutting them down.

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54 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Hopefully it would be that easy, but sadly, I am 100% sure we will see multiple videos of cops using force to break up gatherings.  It's hard to imagine a scenario where a cop shows up to a crowded bar, avoids all the patrons, finds the owner, issues the ticket, and then leaves the premises without incident.

Police waits until after closing time, or sometime early the next morning, and then barricades the doors shut and revokes the liquor license. Doesn't have to happen when the place is crowded.

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54 minutes ago, jamny said:

The first place we went out to eat, the waitress had a mask on and I was still a little uneasy.

We haven't even done take-out. I'm game for take-out, but my better half still isn't there yet.

Some of the indoor-dining experiences I'm reading in this thread and from other sources make the prospect sound less than enticing. Being a family that probably got take out and/or ate out 2 or 3 times a week ... I can envision not dining anywhere until 2021 if the experience won't even somewhat approach pre-COVID.

Not sure when we can get back to take-out ... it takes a unanimous vote in our household.

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I honestly don't know how some of you sleep at night. Are you constantly anxious and nervous? 

My family has done takeout since the beginning. Just had our first dine-in experience this past weekend. And I live next door to Detroit, a very large hot spot. 

Wash your hands. Wear a mask when needed. Cannot live in fear.   

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1 hour ago, Grahamburn said:

And you're here to sensationalize and use hyberbolic expressions.  Whether it's a big deal or not depends on perspective.  I won't bother replying to or quoting you anymore.  We can agree to disagree. 

*Sigh*

I can't believe even after 117,000 dead Americans that this attitude still exists. Of course it's a big deal. Everyone is welcome to their own opinions, but you're not welcome to.your own facts. Please re-examine your "perspective".

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7 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Police waits until after closing time, or sometime early the next morning, and then barricades the doors shut and revokes the liquor license. Doesn't have to happen when the place is crowded.

So, you're saying let the peaceful drunk crowd do what they want for the night, then shut down or fine the establishment the next day?  And only get involved if the peaceful drunk crowd becomes "unpeaceful"?  Sounds like a protest to me, and we know cops seem to end up at peaceful protests, just to make sure the protests remain peaceful.  Just saying it's a bad time to be a cop, a no win situation.

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6 minutes ago, Payne said:

I honestly don't know how some of you sleep at night. Are you constantly anxious and nervous? 

My family has done takeout since the beginning. Just had our first dine-in experience this past weekend. And I live next door to Detroit, a very large hot spot. 

Wash your hands. Wear a mask when needed. Cannot live in fear.   

 

4 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

*Sigh*

I can't believe even after 117,000 dead Americans that this attitude still exists. Of course it's a big deal. Everyone is welcome to their own opinions, but you're not welcome to.your own facts. Please re-examine your "perspective".

The post above yours is what I mean.  I apologize if you felt like I'm discounting the amount of deaths.  I'm not. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

So, you're saying let the peaceful drunk crowd do what they want for the night, then shut down or fine the establishment the next day?  And only get involved if the peaceful drunk crowd becomes "unpeaceful"?

The part in red, I never so much as implied.

I was addressing strictly enforcement of COVID-related phased business openings, attendance limits on gatherings in businesses, and such. 

That said, there are many cases of locally of police shutting down bars and restaurants while the establishments are full of patrons. Many before COVID, some during. I've not heard of a case where patrons fought back against police. Patrons typically just leave without incident.

EDIT: When I posted about closing a bar down in the early morning, I was talking about a hypothetical means to enforce an order if the police really did think it would there would be some issue with enforcing said order while a place was full of patrons.

Edited by Doug B

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2519 new cases in AZ. Haven’t seen the rest of data (total tests, hospitalizations) but don’t see any sign that the big numbers are slowing down.

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6 minutes ago, Doug B said:

The part in red, I never so much as implied.

I was addressing strictly enforcement of COVID-related phased business openings, attendance limits on gatherings in businesses, and such. 

That said, there are many cases of locally of police shutting down bars and restaurants while the establishments are full of patrons. Many before COVID, some during. I've not heard of a case where patrons fought back against police. Patrons typically just leave without incident.

EDIT: When I posted about closing a bar down in the early morning, I was talking about a hypothetical means to enforce an order if the police really did think it would there would be some issue with enforcing said order while a place was full of patrons.

I should avoid these types of discussions and stick to reporting the numbers.  I seem to always end up exaggerating or saying the wrong thing, and end up in an argument that I don't even care about.

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