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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)

James Pethokoukis

@JimPethokoukis

GOLDMAN SACHS: "We find a national [facemask] mandate could ... cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0pp to 0.6% ... a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP."
How people don’t get that we should be doing absolutely everything possible to save the economy is baffling. Do we not remember locking down and putting 40 million people out of work? That literally just happened. 

“We can have 90% of the economy back if we wear masks, stay 6-8 feet apart, wash hands extensively, and safely make as many economic transactions as possible. Test, isolate, contact trace.“

U.S. Response: “Yeah we’re not doing that.”

 
How people don’t get that we should be doing absolutely everything possible to save the economy is baffling. Do we not remember locking down and putting 40 million people out of work? That literally just happened. 

“We can have 90% of the economy back if we wear masks, stay 6-8 feet apart, wash hands extensively, and safely make as many economic transactions as possible. Test, isolate, contact trace.“

U.S. Response: “Yeah we’re not doing that.”
Pretty much and it’s quite depressing. Any shutdown now will crush many small businesses and its coming. Another PPP program isn’t coming. With a rocky flu season coming up, I think many won’t try to comeback a second time.

 
Its a dumb way to think of things because there are tons of asymptomatic people who are testing positive. Not only sick people are getting tested.
Deliberately kept the scenario simple to illustrate the point and make the math easy.  Feel free to plug in more realistic numbers.

100 people have Covid.  

20 get very sick.  All of those get tested and test positive.  1 of them dies.  

80 people are asymptomatic.  10 of them happen to get tested because of jobs, an abundance of caution, exposure to sick people, etc.  All 10 of those test positive.

1 of 100 (1%) of people with Covid died.

1 of 30 (3%+) of people who tested positive for Covid died.

1 of 20 (5%) of people who were sick and tested positive for Covid died.

As long as you use a reasonable set of assumptions, the math will always lead to the same general conclusion - if you're sick and test positive for Covid, your chance of dying (or suffering other serious long-term effects) is going to be far higher than the overall death rate of the disease.

 
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B088C1PPR8/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o08_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

What of this?

Has a nose piece, can put the filter in but what I can tell the filter doesn't matter. (yes/no)
WHO’s guidelines

c) Combination of material used
The ideal combination of material for non-medical masks should include three layers as follows: 1) an innermost layer of a hydrophilic material (e.g. cotton or cotton blends); 2), an outermost layer made of hydrophobic material (e.g., polypropylene, polyester, or their blends) which may limit external contamination from penetration through to the wearer’s nose and mouth; 3) a middle hydrophobic layer of synthetic non-woven material such as polyproplylene or a cotton layer which may enhance filtration or retain droplets.

 
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Florida will undoubtedly see a spike in nursing home deaths, but it's unlikely to be as bad as it was in the northeast in April, if only because we know more about the virus today than we did then.
One area that Florida has done very well in comparison to other states is nursing home containment.  Not only did DeSantis block hospitals from returning positive patients to nursing homes but he also had National Guard strike forces that continue to visit nursing homes throughout the state, inspecting and testing employees and caregivers.

Additionally the state has set up several regional long term care facilities for nursing home patients that test positive but don't require hospitalization. This way they can be safely isolated.

 
Reporting from The Epicenter, it's Day 14 of FloridaSurge and to quote Willie Nelson, I'm still not dead again today.
Day 15 of FloridaSurge and I'm still standing.

Expecting a large number of post-weekend positives today, probably 5 figures.

 
Deliberately kept the scenario simple to illustrate the point and make the math easy.  Feel free to plug in more realistic numbers.

100 people have Covid.  

20 get very sick.  All of those get tested and test positive.  1 of them dies.  

80 people are asymptomatic.  10 of them happen to get tested because of jobs, an abundance of caution, exposure to sick people, etc.  All 10 of those test positive.

1 of 100 (1%) of people with Covid died.

1 of 30 (3%+) of people who tested positive for Covid died.

1 of 20 (5%) of people who were sick and tested positive for Covid died.

As long as you use a reasonable set of assumptions, the math will always lead to the same general conclusion - if you're sick and test positive for Covid, your chance of dying (or suffering other serious long-term effects) is going to be far higher than the overall death rate of the disease.
So if I get covid and have symptoms I just won't get tested. 

;)

 
James Pethokoukis

@JimPethokoukis

GOLDMAN SACHS: "We find a national [facemask] mandate could ... cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0pp to 0.6% ... a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP."
Interesting.  Maybe their medical advice is better than their financial advice.

 
Hey Winz,

Do you have the concrete data on the death count in CT vs AZ, TX and FL? I know you have posted stuff similar, was wondering where you find that information, thanks. 
Don't know exactly what you want, but here are some numbers...

Populations (I got these numbers from Worldometer, if anyone has a better site, please share)
Texas - 28,996,470
Florida - 21,477,632
Arizona - 7,278,729
Connecticut - 3,565,284

COVID deaths (also from Worldometer)
Texas - 2,437
Florida - 3,447
Arizona - 1,588
Connecticut - 4,320

Based on the numbers above:
Texas - 2,437 out of 28,996,470 = 1 COVID death per 11,898 residents
Florida - 3,447 out of 21,477,632 = 1 COVID death per 6,231 residents
Arizona - 1,588 out of 7,278,729 = 1 COVID death per 4,584 residents
Connecticut - 4,320 out of 3,565,284 = 1 COVID death per 825 residents

Now, if you agree that my numbers for population and deaths are accurate, let's go one step further.  For TX, FL, and AZ to reach CT's level of deaths:
Texas - 35,147 out of 28,996,470 = 1 COVID death per 825 residents
Florida - 26,033 out of 21,477,632 = 1 COVID death per 825 residents
Arizona - 8,823 out of 7,278,729 = 1 COVID death per 825 residents
And this is assuming Connecticut has no more COVID deaths.  Do I think any of these states are gonna reach those numbers?  Nope.

 
James Pethokoukis

@JimPethokoukis

GOLDMAN SACHS: "We find a national [facemask] mandate could ... cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0pp to 0.6% ... a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP."
This is where I draw the line with masks.  In an outbreak scenario, I don't believe that masks can substitute for lockdowns.  I don't know of one place where an outbreak happened, and it was brought under control by masks.  I think this is financial guys being financial guys.  

 
This is where I draw the line with masks.  In an outbreak scenario, I don't believe that masks can substitute for lockdowns.  I don't know of one place where an outbreak happened, and it was brought under control by masks.  I think this is financial guys being financial guys.  
We have disagreed alot recently, but you are absolutely right on this.  Masks are no match for lockdowns.

 
This is where I draw the line with masks.  In an outbreak scenario, I don't believe that masks can substitute for lockdowns.  I don't know of one place where an outbreak happened, and it was brought under control by masks.  I think this is financial guys being financial guys.  
The absurd part is we did the ####### lockdown for 3 months. The fact there wasn't a National mask mandate with that and continuing now into the summer is just a slap in the face to everyone who sacrificed. Instead of easing our way out and staying safe, we are just pissing it away. It's mind blowing how disorganized the response has been. I can't even express how angry I am at all of this. 

 
The absurd part is we did the ####### lockdown for 3 months. The fact there wasn't a National mask mandate with that and continuing now into the summer is just a slap in the face to everyone who sacrificed. Instead of easing our way out and staying safe, we are just pissing it away. It's mind blowing how disorganized the response has been. I can't even express how angry I am at all of this. 
I'd imagine you aren't alone in your anger.  No one is going to be happy about another round of lockdowns.  Maybe this time people will listen and wear masks when they are over, so we can avoid this again.

 
Mutation and younger people would be my guess
I buy the younger people argument, but am still skeptical on the mutation part.  Perhaps the spreaders aren't spreading the same amounts that they were early on in the northeast?  Think of it this way - you take 2 people, and they each get an uppercut.  One gets his from Mike Tyson, and the other gets his from me.  Both people got an uppercut, but one is gonna be hurting, and the other has no idea they were hit.

 
The fact there wasn't a National mask mandate with that and continuing now into the summer is just a slap in the face to everyone who sacrificed. 
That wouldn't have been constitutional. Police powers, the rubric under which that would fall, are specifically left to the states.  

 
So what is that goal then?  Per capita number of what?  New cases per day?
It's kind of hard to look that far into the future at an end-of-curve scenario when we are in an outbreak scenario.

But if I were in charge, I'd look at a country that is the gold standard.  Like Germany as an example.

I'd analyze their policies, and I'd bring them over to the USA.

At what point did they re-open?  Why did they reopen?  How many daily cases a day did they have when they did?  

Bring that data over here and put it to work in each state.

 
It's kind of hard to look that far into the future at an end-of-curve scenario when we are in an outbreak scenario.

But if I were in charge, I'd look at a country that is the gold standard.  Like Germany as an example.

I'd analyze their policies, and I'd bring them over to the USA.

At what point did they re-open?  Why did they reopen?  How many daily cases a day did they have when they did?  

Bring that data over here and put it to work in each state.
They tracked and traced nearly immediately, the story goes. You can't catch up once you fall that far behind. To model their successes is a good idea, but one can't expect similar results once the proverbial cat is out of the bag.

 
I'd imagine you aren't alone in your anger.  No one is going to be happy about another round of lockdowns.  Maybe this time people will listen and wear masks when they are over, so we can avoid this again.
Frontline healthcare workers are probably among the angriest. Sure, we still have our jobs, but the predictable, easily avoidable train wreck we’re seeing in many parts of the country is gonna drive a lot of HCW into early retirement or alternative careers. And I may be one of them.

 
That wouldn't have been constitutional. Police powers, the rubric under which that would fall, are specifically left to the states.  
Sure, but it would not have been hard to get all the Governor's together on this for a unified plan. All it would have taken is 4 people being on board with it and pushing it on the States: Trump, McConnell, Pelosi and Biden. If say Florida's governor refused, then go over the top of him. Trump could have tweeted, had some FB ads and done some commercials for Florida asking people to wear masks and letting them know their governor was failing them. Just because the President or Congress can't legally pass a universal law on this, it does not mean they can't organize a unified set plan. 

 
:shrug:

Numbers from Dallas County finally broke the trend of both increasing positive test % and case count, plus the 7 day average moved in the correct direction.

#winning

I mean for reasons I can't really explain Dallas has really been an outlier in big cities for this thing.  (in the good way)

I can't say I see just huge compliance across the board when going out, but it might be just enough.

 
They tracked and traced nearly immediately, the story goes. You can't catch up once you fall that far behind. To model their successes is a good idea, but one can't expect similar results once the proverbial cat is out of the bag.
Hawaii had single digit case numbers all through May and we still don’t have enough contact tracers. In this day and age, you really have to harness smart phones to facilitate tracking, but that requires giving up some privacy. But Americans are reluctant to do so,  like just about everything else that requires personal sacrifice for the common good.

 
This is where I draw the line with masks.  In an outbreak scenario, I don't believe that masks can substitute for lockdowns.  I don't know of one place where an outbreak happened, and it was brought under control by masks.  I think this is financial guys being financial guys.  
I think their point is that a mask mandate that is properly enforced and complied with would eliminate the need for a shutdown. That I can agree with. No way it’s as effective as a lockdown.

A mask mandate in New York as they open up can effectively keep the cases down but it’s not going to be enough in the sunbelt states to reverse an outbreak, the damage is already done. If no further spread happens, the next month will still be horrible due to people who already have been exposed and are still progressing through the disease.

 
So, what are the cases and percentages for your local county?  For me:

County population: 600,000

Positive tests: 1,692 (per this page, which was put out by our county)

Total number of tests: 38,792

Positive percentage: 4.4%

Deaths: 86 

Death percentage relative to positive tests: 5.08%
County population:  265,000
Positives:  1,255
Current hospitalizations:  2
Deaths:  102

I don't have the state testing numbers broken down by county at my fingertips.

 
So, what are the cases and percentages for your local county?  For me:

County population: 600,000

Positive tests: 1,692 (per this page, which was put out by our county)

Total number of tests: 38,792

Positive percentage: 4.4%

Deaths: 86 

Death percentage relative to positive tests: 5.08%
For Duuuuvalll County

County Population : 957,000

Positive Tests :  5839

Total Tests:  101,456

Percent positive: 5.75%

Deaths: 64

Death percentage relative to positive tests: 1.1%

ETA - Duval county is currently up to 70 homicides for the year.

 
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I think their point is that a mask mandate that is properly enforced and complied with would eliminate the need for a shutdown. That I can agree with. No way it’s as effective as a lockdown.

A mask mandate in New York as they open up can effectively keep the cases down but it’s not going to be enough in the sunbelt states to reverse an outbreak, the damage is already done. If no further spread happens, the next month will still be horrible due to people who already have been exposed and are still progressing through the disease.
And how many people from NY are heading out to the Sunbelt states for vacations now? Or really anywhere, doesn't have to be NY. I know they are shutting down beaches & bars but it's not across the board. If you can't go to FL, head to GA or SC. Here in SC, it's hit or miss on mask adherence, dine-in is happening and graduation parties are in full swing. Some are taking it seriously but most are moving on.

 
So, what are the cases and percentages for your local county?  For me:

County population: 600,000

Positive tests: 1,692 (per this page, which was put out by our county)

Total number of tests: 38,792

Positive percentage: 4.4%

Deaths: 86 

Death percentage relative to positive tests: 5.08%
Great idea, want to share the Florida Covid-19 site from the Florida Dept of Health so this is OFFICIAL 

Florida

I am going to break down my Zip Code which has reported ZERO cases to this point...Tequesta, Jupiter Island, Hobe Sound, nothing to this point. 

But we've closed the BEACHES for 4th of July!

 
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And how many people from NY are heading out to the Sunbelt states for vacations now? Or really anywhere, doesn't have to be NY. I know they are shutting down beaches & bars but it's not across the board. If you can't go to FL, head to GA or SC. Here in SC, it's hit or miss on mask adherence, dine-in is happening and graduation parties are in full swing. Some are taking it seriously but most are moving on.
That’s why they put the 14 day quarantine for anyone traveling from those states. Very hard to enforce but a percentage of people will do it. Unfortunately that percentage is the same as people willing to take proper precautions without being forced to. That percentage being low is the reason why other counties can control it and we’re looking at lockdown #2. 

 
There is an event coming up later this year were remembering how you feel now may influence a decision you will be asked to make, just saying.

https://www.foxla.com/news/covid-19-infection-triggers-growth-of-arm-like-tentacles-in-cells-microscope-images-show

So you virologist brilliant folk, is this how a typical virus acts? Growing tentacles?
From the article:

While the new finding may prompt the hairs to stand up on the back of one’s neck, Dr. Nevan Krogan, director of the Quantitative Biosciences Institute at UCSF, said the finding is a common trait for deadly viruses and good news for getting closure to beating the illness. 

“Understanding the underlying biology of a virus only helps us undermine its power. By understanding how it co-opts our cells, we can look for ways to stop it in its tracks,” said Krogan. 

He added that filopodia is not a unique trait to the novel coronavirus, as it has been previously found in other viruses such as ebola, which have been shown “to poke holes in the cells around them, and put virus into the neighbor cells, spreading the virus.”

 
My son decided to go to Universal Studios today in Orlando, nobody in the park and has not stood in line once. Does have to wear a mask while walking between rides or outside I guess, why would anyone want to be there right now? Oh yeah I guess I covered the reason why already. He has a pass. 

 
Sure, but it would not have been hard to get all the Governor's together on this for a unified plan. All it would have taken is 4 people being on board with it and pushing it on the States: Trump, McConnell, Pelosi and Biden. If say Florida's governor refused, then go over the top of him. Trump could have tweeted, had some FB ads and done some commercials for Florida asking people to wear masks and letting them know their governor was failing them. Just because the President or Congress can't legally pass a universal law on this, it does not mean they can't organize a unified set plan. 
I concentrated on your use of "mandate" which applies to both the commission and ability to act to enforce according to dictionary.com, and is how I've always understood the word. 

 
Frontline healthcare workers are probably among the angriest. Sure, we still have our jobs, but the predictable, easily avoidable train wreck we’re seeing in many parts of the country is gonna drive a lot of HCW into early retirement or alternative careers. And I may be one of them.
I know 2 nurses who retired due to the risk from COVID, one early, and one at 70 who loved her ER job at Miami's public hospital.

Not frontline, but my outpatient memory disorder center laid off 1 of 2 NPs due to lower volume. Our 2 neurologists haven't been affected yet, but the neurology trade journal sent to our office has stories about major pay cuts for physicians in many neurology practices. Even in a critical specialty such as stroke, volume is down as people avoid the ER for mild prestroke symptoms. Hospitals are trying to avoid layoffs or furloughs of HCW by cutting overhead and adminitrative functions, but many have no choice. I've read that applications to nursing schools is still high; I think many young people still want jobs in healthcare.

 
I concentrated on your use of "mandate" which applies to both the commission and ability to act to enforce according to dictionary.com, and is how I've always understood the word. 
Fair enough. Biden has already said though if he was POTUS he would use the Executive Branch to force businesses to require masks for anyone entering. There's always a work around on these things. We came up with the power to detain every Japanese-American citizen, we were able to limit the amount of food and basic supplies people could buy, we took over private businesses to make war machines, we forced cars makers to install seat belts in every car, etc. They could get an actual mask mandate through. The issue is enforcement. We needed bi-partisan unity from our leaders so that we didn't politicize it. A federal requirement to wear a mask is no good if counties have citizens, officials and LEOs who are unwilling to uphold it or feel the use of a mask vs. no mask is some kind of social-political statement. 

 
:shrug:

Numbers from Dallas County finally broke the trend of both increasing positive test % and case count, plus the 7 day average moved in the correct direction.

#winning

I mean for reasons I can't really explain Dallas has really been an outlier in big cities for this thing.  (in the good way)

I can't say I see just huge compliance across the board when going out, but it might be just enough.
i agree Dallas numbers are relatively good.  Houston and San Antonio are bad.  really bad.

 
The fact there wasn't a National mask mandate with that and continuing now into the summer is just a slap in the face to everyone who sacrificed. 
That wouldn't have been constitutional. Police powers, the rubric under which that would fall, are specifically left to the states.  
If the president had suggested mandatory masks for each state when he had the conference call with all the governors instead of saying you guys are on your on...

 
This is where I draw the line with masks.  In an outbreak scenario, I don't believe that masks can substitute for lockdowns.  I don't know of one place where an outbreak happened, and it was brought under control by masks.  I think this is financial guys being financial guys.  
It's saying that mask wearing could reduce the transmission to the extent places don't have to lockdown again. Like they are in other countries (although they locked down more than us too)

 
And how many people from NY are heading out to the Sunbelt states for vacations now? Or really anywhere, doesn't have to be NY. I know they are shutting down beaches & bars but it's not across the board. If you can't go to FL, head to GA or SC. Here in SC, it's hit or miss on mask adherence, dine-in is happening and graduation parties are in full swing. Some are taking it seriously but most are moving on.
Pro tip, don't go to a state where "most are moving on"

 
Fair enough. Biden has already said though if he was POTUS he would use the Executive Branch to force businesses to require masks for anyone entering. There's always a work around on these things. We came up with the power to detain every Japanese-American citizen, we were able to limit the amount of food and basic supplies people could buy, we took over private businesses to make war machines, we forced cars makers to install seat belts in every car, etc. They could get an actual mask mandate through. The issue is enforcement. We needed bi-partisan unity from our leaders so that we didn't politicize it. A federal requirement to wear a mask is no good if counties have citizens, officials and LEOs who are unwilling to uphold it or feel the use of a mask vs. no mask is some kind of social-political statement. 
This. It is a lame excuse to hide behind the constitution on this one. 

 
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Fair enough. Biden has already said though if he was POTUS he would use the Executive Branch to force businesses to require masks for anyone entering. 
This would also be wildly unconstitutional, and shows why Biden, while preferable to some, is a dangerous legacy of the love of executive orders.  

 
Fair enough. Biden has already said though if he was POTUS he would use the Executive Branch to force businesses to require masks for anyone entering. There's always a work around on these things. We came up with the power to detain every Japanese-American citizen, we were able to limit the amount of food and basic supplies people could buy, we took over private businesses to make war machines, we forced cars makers to install seat belts in every car, etc. They could get an actual mask mandate through. The issue is enforcement. We needed bi-partisan unity from our leaders so that we didn't politicize it. A federal requirement to wear a mask is no good if counties have citizens, officials and LEOs who are unwilling to uphold it or feel the use of a mask vs. no mask is some kind of social-political statement. 
We also had the power to completely absorb and eliminate private airport security.  

 

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