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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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The Ethical Skeptic has a more positive view of the course of the epidemic, based on multiple charts.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic

>> Now one can make the contention - 'These are real cases, just a younger profile, with a lower rate of hospitalization' Well that rate is 1/4th the rate of the flu for the same demographic - so they are making an argument for opening up, without realizing it. <<

https://mobile.twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1274481443725508608

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23 minutes ago, rcam said:

At this point:

A) Get lucky and find vaccine (no way we are coming anywhere close to herd immunity - ever)

 

Vaccines and herd immunity work on the same principle, so if we are never coming close to herd immunity, there will never be a vaccine either. The article covers both.

I'm not digging for a quote in this thread or an article for the other poster. I guess one could go searching around for something to prove or disprove, but maybe I should have used the word "some" instead of using "a lot." It was a sentiment expressed, but to what degree it was a thing is debatable.

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Is there any area, anywhere in the world, that has gotten hammered twice? I realize it might be too early for that just yet, but I'm just wondering if it's happened?

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6 minutes ago, jplvr said:

Vaccines and herd immunity work on the same principle, so if we are never coming close to herd immunity, there will never be a vaccine either. The article covers both.

I'm not digging for a quote in this thread or an article for the other poster. I guess one could go searching around for something to prove or disprove, but maybe I should have used the word "some" instead of using "a lot." It was a sentiment expressed, but to what degree it was a thing is debatable.

Colloquially, when talking about herd immunity with this virus, it is people getting infected - not herd immunity achieved through a vaccine. I am well aware of the difference between the two. 

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Just now, shader said:

Is there any area, anywhere in the world, that has gotten hammered twice? I realize it might be too early for that just yet, but I'm just wondering if it's happened?

China imposed new lock downs recently, didn't they? I guess they didn't get hammered, although I also believe we'd never know if they did.

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2 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Yup. Not to harp on the point, and as I've said while making this point multiple times I loathe to pick on a particular industry, but bars should not be open. Not safe, not smart.

Why not? Drunk people are able to follow directions all the time. 

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14 minutes ago, shader said:

Is there any area, anywhere in the world, that has gotten hammered twice? I realize it might be too early for that just yet, but I'm just wondering if it's happened?

I'm guessing NYC will likely be the first in the US if it does happen now that we're starting to open back up.

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Slightly off topic but does anyone else find it pointless lip-service when a restaurant closes down for deep cleaning after a positive COVID case? I’ve been seeing more restaurants/breweries announcing that they have positive cases and will be closing in order for a professional company to come in and deep clean. It just seems like a script that they were given by their liability insurance to appease the public.

How likely are you to contract the virus from a surface several days after exposure even without deep cleaning? Seems like it would be more important to get all employees tested to make sure they aren’t continuing to spread the virus when they reopen. Not to mention that they should make it known when that employee worked so that those potentially exposed can get tested. I know there’s privacy restrictions but the deep clean and back to normal seems like such an empty solution that will do little to actually contain the spread.

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17 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Slightly off topic but does anyone else find it pointless lip-service when a restaurant closes down for deep cleaning after a positive COVID case? I’ve been seeing more restaurants/breweries announcing that they have positive cases and will be closing in order for a professional company to come in and deep clean. It just seems like a script that they were given by their liability insurance to appease the public.

How likely are you to contract the virus from a surface several days after exposure even without deep cleaning? Seems like it would be more important to get all employees tested to make sure they aren’t continuing to spread the virus when they reopen. Not to mention that they should make it known when that employee worked so that those potentially exposed can get tested. I know there’s privacy restrictions but the deep clean and back to normal seems like such an empty solution that will do little to actually contain the spread.

No, this is beyond dumb.  They should shut down to test the entire staff that had exposure.  Only bring in those that weren't on shift, while they wait the results.  

 

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16 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Slightly off topic but does anyone else find it pointless lip-service when a restaurant closes down for deep cleaning after a positive COVID case? I’ve been seeing more restaurants/breweries announcing that they have positive cases and will be closing in order for a professional company to come in and deep clean. It just seems like a script that they were given by their liability insurance to appease the public.

How likely are you to contract the virus from a surface several days after exposure even without deep cleaning? Seems like it would be more important to get all employees tested to make sure they aren’t continuing to spread the virus when they reopen. Not to mention that they should make it known when that employee worked so that those potentially exposed can get tested. I know there’s privacy restrictions but the deep clean and back to normal seems like such an empty solution that will do little to actually contain the spread.

I got an email from a popular spot called Berry Fresh, they have a couple locations and were one of the first to have non gender bath rooms a few years back when that was unrolled and as they are surrounded by stuffy golf spots where let's say they aren't taking things as seriously IMHO.

I get this in my email...

Hello Berry Fresh Community,

We have a message that we want to share with you directly.

It has come to our attention that we had an employee test positive for COVID-19 on Thursday, June 18th. This employee showed symptoms during the early morning of Sunday, June 14th, in which we immediately sent her home before we opened for business that day and has not been back to work since.  The employee notified us late Thursday of her test results and let us know it was a family member she contracted COVID-19 from – not from the workplace. 

In response, we will be temporarily closed until next Wednesday, June 24th. We will be initiating full staff testing before we reopen. This closure includes dine-in, curbside and third-party delivery.

We have erred on the side of caution and of course followed CDC and Florida Public Health Guidelines. We immediately closed for business Friday until next Wednesday. During this time period we will have a professional cleaning done at the restaurant using Hydrogen Peroxide, which is a CDC Viruscide. The entire staff will be tested for COVID-19 prior to returning to work.

An entire WEEK of business just flushed down the drain. I cannot imagine trying to even start to try and run a nightclub or restaurant right now. 

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Posted (edited)

AZ jump in #s isnt surprising. Many state/city/county workers were provided testing in the past week+

I was at one of the testing facilities recently. It was a complete shlt show. No organization whatsoever. Just a bunch of people crammed in. Not distancing at all. Most not wearing masks [was pre-mandatory mask wearing here..which isnt happening anyway (see Trump rally going on right now)]. I literally opened the door, looked in, and walked back out.

Had I not been in such shock, I'd have taken a video of it. Was truly unbelievable.

 

Edited by Craig_MiamiFL
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8 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I got an email from a popular spot called Berry Fresh, they have a couple locations and were one of the first to have non gender bath rooms a few years back when that was unrolled and as they are surrounded by stuffy golf spots where let's say they aren't taking things as seriously IMHO.

I get this in my email...

Hello Berry Fresh Community,

We have a message that we want to share with you directly.

It has come to our attention that we had an employee test positive for COVID-19 on Thursday, June 18th. This employee showed symptoms during the early morning of Sunday, June 14th, in which we immediately sent her home before we opened for business that day and has not been back to work since.  The employee notified us late Thursday of her test results and let us know it was a family member she contracted COVID-19 from – not from the workplace. 

In response, we will be temporarily closed until next Wednesday, June 24th. We will be initiating full staff testing before we reopen. This closure includes dine-in, curbside and third-party delivery.

We have erred on the side of caution and of course followed CDC and Florida Public Health Guidelines. We immediately closed for business Friday until next Wednesday. During this time period we will have a professional cleaning done at the restaurant using Hydrogen Peroxide, which is a CDC Viruscide. The entire staff will be tested for COVID-19 prior to returning to work.

An entire WEEK of business just flushed down the drain. I cannot imagine trying to even start to try and run a nightclub or restaurant right now. 

The email seems reasonable though I don’t know why it matters that the employee got it from a family member. They were still potentially spreading no matter what the original source.

Between situations like this and dealing with backlash from enforcing mask/social distancing polices, I wouldn’t want to be their position. That’s on top of many of them being on the verge of losing their business. If any shutdown happens again, I think many owners will be out quickly.

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3 minutes ago, jplvr said:

https://twitter.com/PryTo5/status/1262184346703802373?s=20

Honestly, what are we doing? Is this happening everywhere?

On some level this makes sense.  If you hurt yourself and need to be in the hospital, but also have COVID they can't just keep you in the same type of room and you consume COVID resources.  

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33 minutes ago, Craig_MiamiFL said:

AZ jump in #s isnt surprising. Many state/city/county workers were provided testing in the past week+

I was at one of the testing facilities recently. It was a complete shlt show. No organization whatsoever. Just a bunch of people crammed in. Not distancing at all. Most not wearing masks [was pre-mandatory mask wearing here..which isnt happening anyway (see Trump rally going on right now)]. I literally opened the door, looked in, and walked back out.

Had I not been in such shock, I'd have taken a video of it. Was truly unbelievable.

 

We have been doing drive thru testing here in South Florida for well over a month or two now. And this place is usually way behind the curveball. 

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Just now, culdeus said:

On some level this makes sense.  If you hurt yourself and need to be in the hospital, but also have COVID they can't just keep you in the same type of room and you consume COVID resources.  

Fair enough. So now tell me why I should worry about hospitalization numbers going up if they sent the asymptomatic Covid patient home to ice his ankle and shelter in place for 14 days.

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1 minute ago, jplvr said:

Fair enough. So now tell me why I should worry about hospitalization numbers going up if they sent the asymptomatic Covid patient home to ice his ankle and shelter in place for 14 days.

I think the way this person explained this is very poor.  The same things are happening in Texas.  

They count it as a "hospitalization" but the net effect is to show the release time being unrealistically low.  The effect is to make the disease look less, not more severe.  The sites I like to follow like THC deal with and discuss this limitation. 

 

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4 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I think the way this person explained this is very poor.  The same things are happening in Texas.  

They count it as a "hospitalization" but the net effect is to show the release time being unrealistically low.  The effect is to make the disease look less, not more severe.  The sites I like to follow like THC deal with and discuss this limitation. 

 

Someone thinks the hospitalization numbers being improperly reported (imo) is being done to make the disease look less threatening?

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12 minutes ago, jplvr said:

https://twitter.com/PryTo5/status/1262184346703802373?s=20

Honestly, what are we doing? Is this happening everywhere?

There’s manipulations happening in both ways. It’s unfortunate that we can’t get a uniform method of reporting between the states. Cases like this will draw attention but they are likely an insignificant portion of the stats.

A friend got upset because she found one article that stated AZ was counting presumed positives. I couldn’t find any more information about it and guessed that meant that they were counting hospitalizations or patients with tell-tale signs that hadn’t gotten their test results back yet. She jumped to the conclusion that they were reporting anyone with symptoms including her daughter who tested negative was still being counted as a presumed positive because she showed symptoms. Again another case of something that sounds bad but likely isn’t.

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6 minutes ago, jplvr said:

Someone thinks the hospitalization numbers being improperly reported (imo) is being done to make the disease look less threatening?

If the result causes hospitals to report it takes them 2 hours to cure a covid patient, yes.  That is a problem, but you can manage this.  Especially as elective surgeries now are going ahead with a positive test the hours till discharge will fall and this will mess up some risk factors.  

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4 minutes ago, jplvr said:

Someone thinks the hospitalization numbers being improperly reported (imo) is being done to make the disease look less threatening?

If they were counted at a hospitalization, they would also be counted as a discharge. If they are reporting average hospital stay, a zero or one day stay will decrease the overall average.

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Just now, Biff84 said:

There’s manipulations happening in both ways. It’s unfortunate that we can’t get a uniform method of reporting between the states. Cases like this will draw attention but they are likely an insignificant portion of the stats.

A friend got upset because she found one article that stated AZ was counting presumed positives. I couldn’t find any more information about it and guessed that meant that they were counting hospitalizations or patients with tell-tale signs that hadn’t gotten their test results back yet. She jumped to the conclusion that they were reporting anyone with symptoms including her daughter who tested negative was still being counted as a presumed positive because she showed symptoms. Again another case of something that sounds bad but likely isn’t.

Yours is just some random woman musing on social media. I don't know how I'm supposed to trust a possible increase in hospitalization stats going forward if this is going on. More people are going back to the hospital for things they have put off.

Just now, quiksilver said:

Who get's hospitalized for a sprained ankle?

Email the Rhode Island Department of Health. Maybe they got an xray. Apparently they're now counted as a Covid hospitalization.

Just now, culdeus said:

If the result causes hospitals to report it takes them 2 hours to cure a covid patient, yes.  That is a problem, but you can manage this.  Especially as elective surgeries now are going ahead with a positive test the hours till discharge will fall and this will mess up some risk factors.  

 

Just now, Biff84 said:

If they were counted at a hospitalization, they would also be counted as a discharge. If they are reporting average hospital stay, a zero or one day stay will decrease the overall average.

Who's tracking this stuff? I mostly just see people talking about case numbers going up and watching to see if hospitalization and death numbers follow. Case numbers alone are dubious, but I'm glad people are now tracking the percentages, which do show it is increasing. 

The only thing I've been worried about from the beginning: do we have the ability to treat Covid patients who need a hospital bed? If we can, keep going. If we can't, shut down the area affected.

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2 minutes ago, jplvr said:

Yours is just some random woman musing on social media. I don't know how I'm supposed to trust a possible increase in hospitalization stats going forward if this is going on. More people are going back to the hospital for things they have put off.

Email the Rhode Island Department of Health. Maybe they got an xray. Apparently they're now counted as a Covid hospitalization.

 

Who's tracking this stuff? I mostly just see people talking about case numbers going up and watching to see if hospitalization and death numbers follow. Case numbers alone are dubious, but I'm glad people are now tracking the percentages, which do show it is increasing. 

The only thing I've been worried about from the beginning: do we have the ability to treat Covid patients who need a hospital bed? If we can, keep going. If we can't, shut down the area affected.

Can't speak for everywhere but the local hospital networks are managing it in Texas.  They say we have two weeks of buffer right now. That is acceptable. 

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1 hour ago, jplvr said:
1 hour ago, culdeus said:

On some level this makes sense.  If you hurt yourself and need to be in the hospital, but also have COVID they can't just keep you in the same type of room and you consume COVID resources.  

Fair enough. So now tell me why I should worry about hospitalization numbers going up if they sent the asymptomatic Covid patient home to ice his ankle and shelter in place for 14 days.

Because it may be a more accurate representation of how widespread the virus is. Asymptomatic people can spread it unknowingly. Them being diagnosed as having the virus should be welcomed by everyone who wants this ####ign thing to go away

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On 6/21/2020 at 2:42 PM, stbugs said:

The guy you replied to isn’t someone I think highly of

What does this have to do about COVID-19?  Can you keep it on topic or do I need to report you?

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

Just the flu...

Yep, flu kills up to ~700k per year.

Edited by tjnc09

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boy that week went by fast

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, The Commish said:

Wow....so it's Michigan and Idaho that are paying attention to the guidelines?  Kudos to them.  Hope they don't get screwed by the rest of us.

Good point. As interstate travel increases, some of the people convinced their local healthcare systems aren’t in trouble will import cases to areas that aren’t as well equipped. It’s an extension of selfish behavior wrt risk assessment, and extremely frustrating for those trying to look at the big picture.

Edited by Terminalxylem

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tjnc09 said:


Yep, flu kills up to ~700k per year.


It's very telling that you had to use the phrase "up to" and you had to use global figures in order to make your point here.

Yes, the flu kills "up to" 700K people per year, worldwide.

COVID will kill more than that in 6 months.

COVID will also end up killing around 7 times as many people in the US as the flu does, on average.
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The last 17 days in San Antonio:

Hospitalizations up 600%

ICU up 400%

Ventilators up 500%

20-49 makes up 53% of Hospitalizations

Fortunate I was hospitalized last weekend because visitors are no longer allowed in the hospitals. I can't imagine having gone thru that alone.

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1 minute ago, Joe Summer said:

It's very telling that you had to use the phrase "up to" and you had to use global figures in order to make your point here.

I'm amazed there are still people out there that don't have him on Ignore.

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4 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

I'm amazed there are still people out there that don't have him on Ignore.

Or that the people doing the boxing let him back. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Keerock said:
7 hours ago, Slapdash said:
10 hours ago, jamny said:
10 hours ago, The Commish said:

doing the needful. 

Strike 2! ;)

There are two people who work on my team who say this all the time.  I always thought it was because they are non-native english speakers....but maybe they have picked it up at this company like Commish :oldunsure: 

I say it all the time now.  I think it's based on English translations from Indian dialects, but it's commonplace in IT.

There was a thread in here years back about an Indian IT person telling a poster here to do the needful and nobody had any idea what that meant. Don't remember anything more specific than that, but somebody probably does. 

Edited by FBG26

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Posted (edited)

Well isn't this a ray of ####### sunshine for Florida....

 

Quote

Rebekah Jones aka #Insubordinate #scientist

@GeoRebekah

BREAKING: 1 OF 3: Florida announced yesterday they're not counting the icu bed availability anymore, a key element in keeping things open, so the state can proceed to the next phase by July 4.

I have multiple sources at DOH who have just told me they have been instructed this week to change the numbers and begin slowly deleting deaths and cases so it looks like Florida is improving next week in the leadup to July 4, like they've "made it over the hump."

I've independently verified they've deleted at least 1200 cases in the last week.They're only reporting all these cases now so they can restrict reporting next week to make everyone think it's over. I've had two DOH employees in different offices confirm

Rebekah Jones was responsible for the Florida Coronovirus website before she was fired because she wouldn't cook the numbers. 

She has her own website now at Florida COVID Action

Edited by Senor Schmutzig
added more werds
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Posted (edited)

Terrible numbers today.  Hospitalizations just now starting to rise. Next week deaths will start to rise 

 

Edited by shader
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28 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

The last 17 days in San Antonio:

Hospitalizations up 600%

ICU up 400%

Ventilators up 500%

20-49 makes up 53% of Hospitalizations

Fortunate I was hospitalized last weekend because visitors are no longer allowed in the hospitals. I can't imagine having gone thru that alone.

Sure, but how many of those are people who sprained their ankles because they couldn’t get dialyzed?

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It’s so sad to see the reality of this virus play out a second time, and still see so many in denial.

A friend today was trying to point out that cases were rising and deaths were falling and that this is a good thing.  
 

I literally couldn’t make him understand that the increases in hospitalizations and deaths are coming over the next 1-2 weeks. It’s like he won’t believe it until it happens.

Which is half the problem with this country.  The sad part is we will go through this again in the fall.

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9 minutes ago, shader said:

It’s so sad to see the reality of this virus play out a second time, and still see so many in denial.

A friend today was trying to point out that cases were rising and deaths were falling and that this is a good thing.  
 

I literally couldn’t make him understand that the increases in hospitalizations and deaths are coming over the next 1-2 weeks. It’s like he won’t believe it until it happens.

Which is half the problem with this country.  The sad part is we will go through this again in the fall.

Some people need to learn the hard way. I just didn’t realize how many people were included in that group.

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5 hours ago, jplvr said:

https://twitter.com/PryTo5/status/1262184346703802373?s=20

Honestly, what are we doing? Is this happening everywhere?

The overall numbers are so much higher that picking examples of flaws in data changes nothing.  While not perfect for sure, we are probably at a point where we need to rely on the data provided (US only) and use it as our guide.

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I have one more pretty depressing piece of first hand news or information that was passed along to me from my brother, he serves high up at the V.A. in D.C. 

I want to be blunt, he doesn't line up with most military officials in how they vote, you can figure it out from there. 

-He told me that even if I get a test, that the results cannot be trusted, not 100%, not even close. So I am not sure that if you test positive that you are even in the clear 7-14 days later or whatever. I hate to even type this but he told us towards the end of January to prepare and I don't mind sharing that I didn't listen. So much so that in the past week a box of "VogMasks" showed up at my house from him. He's worried about me starting to re-enter restaurants and such. 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I have one more pretty depressing piece of first hand news or information that was passed along to me from my brother, he serves high up at the V.A. in D.C. 

I want to be blunt, he doesn't line up with most military officials in how they vote, you can figure it out from there. 

-He told me that even if I get a test, that the results cannot be trusted, not 100%, not even close. So I am not sure that if you test positive that you are even in the clear 7-14 days later or whatever. I hate to even type this but he told us towards the end of January to prepare and I don't mind sharing that I didn't listen. So much so that in the past week a box of "VogMasks" showed up at my house from him. He's worried about me starting to re-enter restaurants and such. 

 

 

Old tests (nucleic acid tests like PCR) were ~70% sensitivity for diagnosing acute infection. Newer tests are 95%+. This assumes the sample is obtained correctly and the lab processes it promptly.

Antibody tests are a different story. Given the overall low prevalence, there are only a few I would trust, those with a specificity >99%. Whether the presence of antibodies confers long term immunity is another issue.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Antibody tests are a different story. Given the overall low prevalence, there are only a few I would trust, those with a specificity >99%. Whether the presence of antibodies confers long term immunity is another issue.

Just saw an article via Yahoo that stated they are seeing antibody rates drop after only two or three months. It was a rather depressing finding if it turns out to be true.

Edit, one link to the story: https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-antibodies-start-to-decrease-within-2-to-3-months-following-covid-19-infection-study

Edited by DallasDMac
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8 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Old tests (nucleic acid tests like PCR) were ~70% sensitivity for diagnosing acute infection. Newer tests are 95%+. This assumes the sample is obtained correctly and the lab processes it promptly.

Antibody tests are a different story. Given the overall low prevalence, there are only a few I would trust, those with a specificity >99%. Whether the presence of antibodies confers long term immunity is another issue.

Good luck with that, gotta knock it down at least another 5% for accuracy if humans are involved in the process at all. 

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2 hours ago, shader said:

Terrible numbers today.  Hospitalizations just now starting to rise. Next week deaths will start to rise 

 

 

2 hours ago, shader said:

It’s so sad to see the reality of this virus play out a second time, and still see so many in denial.

A friend today was trying to point out that cases were rising and deaths were falling and that this is a good thing.  
 

I literally couldn’t make him understand that the increases in hospitalizations and deaths are coming over the next 1-2 weeks. It’s like he won’t believe it until it happens.

Which is half the problem with this country.  The sad part is we will go through this again in the fall.

1st of all, can I give you a virtual hug? Come in for the real thing and for gawds sake man, show a little optimism 😉

Just trying to get you to stop and relax for a minute. 

Cheers!

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DallasDMac said:

Just saw an article via Yahoo that stated they are seeing antibody rates drop after only two or three months. It was a rather depressing finding if it turns out to be true.

Edit, one link to the story: https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-antibodies-start-to-decrease-within-2-to-3-months-following-covid-19-infection-study

Why aren't there any headlines that covid numbers are down 25%+ in San Antonio?  Or 52%.. you know, however you want to spin the numbers?

Edited by matuski
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A one-day drop is often due to underreporting.

A one-day spike is rarely due to overreporting.

The media tends to temper expectations accordingly.

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