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Can anybody explain why CA, which seemed to do everything right, is seeing such high numbers now?

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5 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Can anybody explain why CA, which seemed to do everything right, is seeing such high numbers now?

Can’t speak for big cities, but from a central Cali pov, a lot of people got cocky. SF and LA did well to start, now a lot of people aren’t taking it seriously because every city here didn’t end up like NYC. “See, it’s not that bad” 

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50 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Its hard to defend even from pro-Trumpers like myself.

Respect for that. That’s because we know in NY the virus doesn’t do politics. It gets transmitted. Some people get sick, some very badly and go to the hospital, and some pass away.

Should we go back to work and back to life? Yes.

Can we do it smart so we have an economy? So our kids can play ball and go to camp? Please people, let’s do this.

Stay safe and healthy.

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Damn it.

My best friend just landed in the hospital for Coronia Virus.  He is in isolation using oxygen. Early 50s. Lifelong weedsmoker (never smoked anything else tho) who is active and has a young kid at home. Moved out his wife and kid yesterday. 

He had passed kidney stones through his pecker earlier in life and was in so much pain (pissing glass shards) for a couple weeks. He said that was a 9.5 and this fluctuates between and 8.5 - 9. He feels 200 feet underwater, i.e. like my 235# BST-self is standing on his chest full time. All his joints hurt. His legs are killing him constantly. He is coughing up white thick stuff, almost like paint, every so often. And he has all the other common bad effects as well.

Sucky sucky sucky. He is one the funniest humans Ive ever met.

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17 minutes ago, Bluto Blutarsky said:

Can’t speak for big cities, but from a central Cali pov, a lot of people got cocky.

That's where we are.

You could see the political line drawn in the sand on this issue. Only big exceptions seemed to be most healthcare providers stayed very protective regardless of their personal politics.

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A bit over the line, bro. 

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

Can anybody explain why CA, which seemed to do everything right, is seeing such high numbers now?

When you say numbers, what are you talking about?  Tests, positives, hospitalizations, deaths?

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3 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

When you say numbers, what are you talking about?  Tests, positives, hospitalizations, deaths?

I was looking at the new case curve

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Captain Cranks said:

I'm not sure if this is true or not, but Desantis mentioned that the new cases are primarily younger people who have a far greater chance of survival and that we (the state) has done a much better job of protecting senior facilities and at-risk individuals.  So there is legitimate potential that it doesn't kill people "this time around" if it's infecting those more capable of shaking it off.    

I wouldn’t waste one minute of your time listening to Desantis and his thoughts on the virus.

Listen to epidemiologists, or the CDC.

Edited by shader

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1 hour ago, BigSteelThrill said:

Damn it.

My best friend just landed in the hospital for Coronia Virus.  He is in isolation using oxygen. Early 50s. Lifelong weedsmoker (never smoked anything else tho) who is active and has a young kid at home. Moved out his wife and kid yesterday. 

He had passed kidney stones through his pecker earlier in life and was in so much pain (pissing glass shards) for a couple weeks. He said that was a 9.5 and this fluctuates between and 8.5 - 9. He feels 200 feet underwater, i.e. like my 235# BST-self is standing on his chest full time. All his joints hurt. His legs are killing him constantly. He is coughing up white thick stuff, almost like paint, every so often. And he has all the other common bad effects as well.

Sucky sucky sucky. He is one the funniest humans Ive ever met.

So sorry to hear 

:(

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7 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

He's also correct.

Of course I’m correct in this instance.  But not because I’m smart, it’s because I’m literally just repeating known info about the virus.

If cases rise, so will hospitalizations and deaths. That’s indisputable and the fact that so many try to argue that, is why this country is handling this virus so poorly.  

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Today we found out that our regular UPS driver who makes deliveries where  work was diagnosed with Covid. Supplys at work are getting tough to come by. I ran out of my size surgical gloves and am now in one size smaller and I am not sure how long that supply will last. I understand patients frustrations but I am getting tired of their complaining that we ask them to wear a mask and follow some simple rules when coming in for surgery. You would think people coming in for surgery would be pretty polite no matter what but that has not been the case.

Oh well, just stay the course and do the best you can, stay humble.

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4 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I was looking at the new case curve

My first thought is the sheer number of people in California.  Even with all the recent positives, they are still only 30th in cases per capita.  I will have to research CA's recent daily numbers.

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Just now, prosopis said:

Today we found out that our regular UPS driver who makes deliveries where  work was diagnosed with Covid. Supplys at work are getting tough to come by. I ran out of my size surgical gloves and am now in one size smaller and I am not sure how long that supply will last. I understand patients frustrations but I am getting tired of their complaining that we ask them to wear a mask and follow some simple rules when coming in for surgery. You would think people coming in for surgery would be pretty polite no matter what but that has not been the case.

Oh well, just stay the course and do the best you can, stay humble.

So sad. Reminds me of these people:
 

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1275929851657101313?s=20
 

 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

My first thought is the sheer number of people in California.  Even with all the recent positives, they are still only 30th in cases per capita.  I will have to research CA's recent daily numbers.

Florida and Texas both in that same range, per capita. 

As much as we talk about different states handling it differently, I think, ultimately, most are doing relatively similar things. And there's only a certain level of compliance you'll get on most things anyway. And the lack of cooperation from some will always undermine those that are cooperating. 

Obviously, the larger outbreaks will rotate, but I suspect, ultimately, the impacts for each state/region will be based almost entirely on population. 

Blue or red states be damned. People are people and COVID doesn't care. 

One thing is for damn sure.....declaring victory over COVID is a mistake. 

 

Edited by pollardsvision

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4 minutes ago, shader said:

Of course I’m correct in this instance.  But not because I’m smart, it’s because I’m literally just repeating known info about the virus.

If cases rise, so will hospitalizations and deaths. That’s indisputable and the fact that so many try to argue that, is why this country is handling this virus so poorly.  

I challenge you to find a single instance of anyone saying if cases rise, hospitalizations and deaths will remain the same.  You were saying cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will all rise at the same rate, and basically everyone called you out on that.  Every single person here agrees with you that more cases means more sick and dead people.  You are only arguing with yourself.

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9 hours ago, shader said:

This virus isn't a mystery anymore.

It wasn't a mystery back in March either. Epidemics follow a very regular and repeatable pattern.  Breaking transmission chains though widespread behavior change is necessary, but it seems Americans didn't have the capacity to sacrifice for the common good like other countries did.

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33 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

My first thought is the sheer number of people in California.  Even with all the recent positives, they are still only 30th in cases per capita.  I will have to research CA's recent daily numbers.

But compare CA curve with NY

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It just seems like every country/region/state (however you want to segment things) has to go through a major spike. It seems inevitable no matter what is done. I feel horrible for these states that were shut down to only be going through their spikes now.

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28 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I challenge you to find a single instance of anyone saying if cases rise, hospitalizations and deaths will remain the same.  You were saying cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will all rise at the same rate, and basically everyone called you out on that.  Every single person here agrees with you that more cases means more sick and dead people.  You are only arguing with yourself.

They will rise at the same or similar rates that they always have.  I figured that part was obvious, we’ve only been talking about it for 4-5 months. Your being nit-picky doesn’t help things, so let’s move on. 

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12 minutes ago, jobarules said:

But compare CA curve with NY

It’s tough to compare the CA and NY curves because CA is doing a very good job of testing now.  When the NY outbreak started, testing was in a terrible state. 

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Posted (edited)

According to wotldometers it looks like today was our worst day for cases yet. 

Though given under reporting in ny and Nj early on I would guess there were days that were worst but we just won’t know. 

Edited by Redwes25
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1 minute ago, shader said:

They will rise at the same or similar rates that they always have.  I figured that part was obvious, we’ve only been talking about it for 4-5 months. Your being nit-picky doesn’t help things, so let’s move on. 

You are flat out wrong on this one.  No way in hell will the death rate rise at the same or even similar rate.  For proof, let's provide today's stats per Worldometer.  That way we can revisit this in a week, a month, 2 months, etc.

As of 24 June - 124,281 deaths out of 2,463,271 cases equals 5.05% death rate.  I will bet you anything this number will be under 5 in a month.

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33 minutes ago, pollardsvision said:

Florida and Texas both in that same range, per capita. 

As much as we talk about different states handling it differently, I think, ultimately, most are doing relatively similar things. And there's only a certain level of compliance you'll get on most things anyway. And the lack of cooperation from some will always undermine those that are cooperating. 

Obviously, the larger outbreaks will rotate, but I suspect, ultimately, the impacts for each state/region will be based almost entirely on population. 

Blue or red states be damned. People are people and COVID doesn't care. 

One thing is for damn sure.....declaring victory over COVID is a mistake. 

 

I was just looking at today's data and Covid worldometers and had noticed the same thing about Cali, Florida, and Texas.  They're all around 4,500-5,000 cases per million right now.  States in the NE are around 15-20,000/M and Illinois is at 10,000/M. So I suspect that with lower numbers, the above three states didn't have the dramatic, cautionary crisis as in the NE, so they let themselves get a little bit overconfident about the matter ...the virus didn't hit hard enough to put an appropriate amount of fear into them, and now they're paying the price.

Overall, 173,000 new cases worldwide today- the second highest ever - and another 5,000 deaths.  Brazil with 40,000 new cases, but the U.S. with 39,000 new cases - our highest ever daily count.  We've really messed this up.  

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31 minutes ago, jobarules said:

It just seems like every country/region/state (however you want to segment things) has to go through a major spike. It seems inevitable no matter what is done. I feel horrible for these states that were shut down to only be going through their spikes now.

It only inevitable because we chose to make it inevitable.  There are plenty of places in the world that are more or less containing it for the time being.

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3 hours ago, BigSteelThrill said:

Damn it.

My best friend just landed in the hospital for Coronia Virus.  He is in isolation using oxygen. Early 50s. Lifelong weedsmoker (never smoked anything else tho) who is active and has a young kid at home. Moved out his wife and kid yesterday. 

He had passed kidney stones through his pecker earlier in life and was in so much pain (pissing glass shards) for a couple weeks. He said that was a 9.5 and this fluctuates between and 8.5 - 9. He feels 200 feet underwater, i.e. like my 235# BST-self is standing on his chest full time. All his joints hurt. His legs are killing him constantly. He is coughing up white thick stuff, almost like paint, every so often. And he has all the other common bad effects as well.

Sucky sucky sucky. He is one the funniest humans Ive ever met.

I 420 like a chimney typically. In the last few days I have actually cut way back, I can't honestly remember the last time, yeah I can. California 2000, when I landed there I became almost daily. I hate to say this but it's gotten worse in the last few years, half ounce a week easy I would say. 

I know smokers have had more challenges. I had not heard much about pot smokers being at a higher risk but logically I would understand why. 

-I'd like to hear more and I'd like anyone that has and good info on this to speak up. 

On the other side, can we all put out a virtual healing hand for your best friend? That sucks and I hope he is able to get on top of this. Hard to understand it all until you either go thru it or have someone close to you experience it. 

Tell your friend he is going to make it. Talk to him about the next time you all can get together and what you all are going to do in order to celebrate him kicking this thing. 

Cheers!

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51 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

We've really messed this up.  

I can only pray that at least maybe we have learned enough to spare future generations from our mistakes. 

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15 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:
55 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

We've really messed this up.  

 

You can say that again.

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1 hour ago, ragincajun said:

This is based on the site I put the link up for about every 2-3 days.  

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-2-week-projection-using-bed-occupancy-growth/

 

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

 

As of 24 June - 124,281 deaths out of 2,463,271 cases equals 5.05% death rate.  I will bet you anything this number will be under 5 in a month.

:lol: don't hurt yourself with that giant limb youre stepping out... predicting a 0.05% drop in a month? Whoa!!!! 
 

Some folks in here have been saying it'll drop from 5-6% to 1-2% for months now.... hasn't happened yet. 

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Anyone with half a brain saw this coming. We haven’t changed anything. No masks wearing mandatory. No waiting for milestones to open. No tracing. 
 

WTF did people think would happen?

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Tons of graduation parties going on. Dozens of kids, no masks. Why are we even discussing remote learning in September.

I went to an outdoor diner today. Only the staff were wearing masks. We had a party of 8 adults and about a dozen kids. 

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1 hour ago, leftcoastguy7 said:

I can only pray that at least maybe we have learned enough to spare future generations from our mistakes. 

I like your optimism.  

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30 minutes ago, [icon] said:

:lol: don't hurt yourself with that giant limb youre stepping out... predicting a 0.05% drop in a month? Whoa!!!! 
 

Some folks in here have been saying it'll drop from 5-6% to 1-2% for months now.... hasn't happened yet. 

Would have but you still can get a test unless you lie or are going to get admitted. 

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

Tons of graduation parties going on. Dozens of kids, no masks. Why are we even discussing remote learning in September.

I went to an outdoor diner today. Only the staff were wearing masks. We had a party of 8 adults and about a dozen kids. 

Well, I’m pretty sure my kids won’t be going either way so I’m hoping for remote. They sent out a survey for parents to tell them who would be coming back in the fall if they do regular school.  They also asked if we’d be more or less likely to send them if masks were required of all students. We will see what happens. 
 

It doesn’t surprise me that people are doing whatever they want.  

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8 hours ago, Dezbelief said:

My best friend can't wear a mask because he's asthmatic. Moron, no mask and asthma is going to get you killed quicker. 

There’s nothing about controlled asthma that precludes wearing a mask.

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, culdeus said:

I mean there are anecdotal reports coming out that people that had a serious reaction and recovered have some lasting lung damage.  

How lasting? I don't think we really know yet.  It also seems lasting damage seems exceptionally rare.  

Your last two statements are contradictory, but I agree we don’t know atm.

ARDS from all causes is associated with morbidity and mortality though.

Edited by Terminalxylem
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13 hours ago, Doug B said:

The thing about "ventilators that won't get touched":

It looks to me like ventilators are no longer immediate go-to items for severe COVID-19 treatment. More severe-symptom patients are laid prone and/or given steroids these days. Speculatively (I don't know for sure), maybe also more use of anti-coagulants to help patients fight off blood clots in the lungs? @Terminalxylem @growlers @gianmarco ?

Point being, lower-than-expected ventilator use is likely less because COVID patients aren't getting "that sick" anymore. It's likely much more because recommended treatment protocols have changed over the last few months.

 

Yes, mechanical  ventilation is delayed as long as possible, longer than is typical for the degree of respiratory distress. Steroids are gaining traction, and anticoagulants are being used in many ICUs, though data is still limited.

Agree with your overall assessment.

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8 hours ago, renesauz said:

It would help a TON if doctors would actually write DNR orders instead of begging families for permission to write them. It's not a new dynamic with COVID, but too many people are too slow to let go. The money and resources spent keeping a dying person alive for an extra day or two (usually unresponsive on a ventilator) is ridiculous. 

Unless you’re having the DNR discussion, I’d be careful about judging those who do. While certainly some doctors avoid realistic end-of-life discussions, I think societal understanding and acceptance of the dying process is a much bigger problem.

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3 hours ago, [icon] said:

:lol: don't hurt yourself with that giant limb youre stepping out... predicting a 0.05% drop in a month? Whoa!!!! 
 

Some folks in here have been saying it'll drop from 5-6% to 1-2% for months now.... hasn't happened yet. 

My point was the number will drop, not rise.  The only place I have data for the entire time is CT, and we have risen.

24 Jun - 4,287 deaths out of 45,913 cases equals 9.34% death rate
24 May - 3,693 deaths out of 40,468 cases equals 9.13% death rate
24 Apr - 1,764 deaths out of 23,921 cases equals 7.37% death rate
24 Mar - 12 deaths out of 618 cases equals 1.94% death rate

So yeah, I guess I am going out on a limb by saying the death rate will drop.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, TheWinz said:

As of 24 June - 124,281 deaths out of 2,463,271 cases equals 5.05% death rate.

I didn't realize how close we are to the world average.  485,187 deaths out of 9,535,219 cases equals 5.09% death rate.

Edited by TheWinz

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

Unless you’re having the DNR discussion, I’d be careful about judging those who do. While certainly some doctors avoid realistic end-of-life discussions, I think societal understanding and acceptance of the dying process is a much bigger problem.

In most states, MDs don't need permission to write a DNR, but generally do seek family approval for fear of lawsuits. When a patient is on heavy doses of multiple pressers, high vent settings, multi-organ failure with a possible anoxic injury on top of that....plus 80+ years old....there comes a point where MDs really should put their foot down. It's probably not reasonable for us to expect a grieving family member to make the reasonable decision. Oddly, the more religious folks are often the most insistent on continuing. "Jesus will heal her and she'll walk out of here!"

Really? She's 83, and for all intents and purposes already gone. If you have faith lets turn off the machines and drugs keeping her heart beating and let God decide. Doing everything isn't faith in God, it's desperation placing unwarranted faith in man and his science (that you're simultaneously denying!)

 

I have had this discussion, many times (much more carefully obviously). It's frustrating.

Edited by renesauz

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

I didn't realize how close we are to the world average.  485,187 deaths out of 9,535,219 cases equals 5.09% death rate.

Still think when all is said and done that rate is about half of that. Too many asymptomatics and mildly ill still not even being tested.

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We go in and sign our DNR paperwork, wills, etc. Monday. The appointment seems timely given everything going on.

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9 hours ago, TheWinz said:

You are flat out wrong on this one.  No way in hell will the death rate rise at the same or even similar rate.  For proof, let's provide today's stats per Worldometer.  That way we can revisit this in a week, a month, 2 months, etc.

As of 24 June - 124,281 deaths out of 2,463,271 cases equals 5.05% death rate.  I will bet you anything this number will be under 5 in a month.

:lmao:

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:
13 hours ago, Dezbelief said:

My best friend can't wear a mask because he's asthmatic. Moron, no mask and asthma is going to get you killed quicker. 

There’s nothing about controlled asthma that precludes wearing a mask.

It's just his excuse, moron.

 

Him, certainly not you.

Edited by Dezbelief

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7 hours ago, [icon] said:

:lol: don't hurt yourself with that giant limb youre stepping out... predicting a 0.05% drop in a month? Whoa!!!! 
 

Some folks in here have been saying it'll drop from 5-6% to 1-2% for months now.... hasn't happened yet. 

Most serology tests (Assuming they are accurate) show a death rate of 1-1.5%. That “appears” to be the death rate, and I haven’t seen anything that has significantly altered that.  We should, of course, see a similar rate going forward.

But that doesn’t mean the reported death rate doesn’t have some meaning too. For those that get the virus and decide to go get tested, the death rate is still in the 3-5% range for reported cases, which is, by the way, the range that the WHO posted way back in late Feb when they didn’t think there were many asymptomatic cases.

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