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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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3 minutes ago, shader said:

I know how models work.  I know my prediction has no basis.  Because it's a prediction.  

I don't put any validity in these models, because they aren't scientific, they are mathematical projections based on assumptions that humans feed into them.  

I would never waste time building a projection model, because I have no idea what is going to happen one week from now, much less tomorrow.  Neither do the humans at 538, or the humans at the IMHE.  They are at the mercy of politicians and a public that has proven to be erratic.

What I can predict is that since cases have exploded over the past 2 weeks, the downturn in deaths will reverse as well.  That's why I made a very non-scientific prediction that will definitely turn out to be wrong.

 

that, GB, is a model.  It may not be mathematically rigorous or based on a scientific principle, but you are making a prediction based on past observations.

predictions are nothing more than results of models.  We build models to build more confidence in the predictions.  Further, models help us understand the impact of changes - i.e. if we do X, how does that impact the prediction?

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@Doug B

I never said otherwise 

There are people willing to live with the risk and others that aren't. The problem i have is when one side judges the other (and I've been guilty of that myself). I'm trying to get better on that end.

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In the early stages of the pandemic there was a discussion about letting young and healthy get the virus in hopes of increasing herd immunity while trying to protect the elderly and at-risk citizens.  The idea was mostly rejected as unsafe. Well, young people have decided to do it anyway.  Here's a balanced article from Reason (a libertarian publication).

https://reason.com/2020/06/24/as-covid-19-infections-rise-patients-are-getting-younger/

We'll see if this works out.  I'm generally on the optimistic side of the disease, but this is worrisome (I am the Worrierking).  

 

 

 

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Phase 3 on track for July 6 for NYC. This includes indoor dining at 50% capacity. This will be a HUGE test.

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5 minutes ago, jobarules said:

My original point was if I'm surrounded by them for a few hours congregating, talking, laughing, touching the same things AT THAT POINT the mask is probably useless.

Are you saying masks provide 100% protection?

Absolutely not. But I do think they mitigate the risk somewhat - asymptomatic transmission that might occur from talking and laughing in close quarters specifically. And there are other measures you could take to ensure you aren’t touching all the same things, or at least sanitize your hands frequently if you do.

Very few things are all or none, and we each have to decide the risks we’re willing to take for ourselves and those around us. I’m just trying to understand how risk appraisal can be so highly variable.

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23 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Am I supposed to be responsible for every person on the planet?

Change that to "Am I supposed to be responsible for other people?", and I answer "Yes, absolutely".

Society needs a very high critical mass of people to willingly adopt widespread adoption of face coverings in dam-near all social situations.

And again (to the house) ... you don't wear a mask for yourself. You don't wear a mask for yourself. You don't wear a mask for yourself. 20 partygoers need to be wearing 20 masks for the other 19 people at the party. You don't make exposure choices for other people, and you're a host doing wrong if you force people to make an awkward face-covering-based attendance decision upon showing up to your doorstep.

As a society -- no, we're not yet supposed to be back to doing pre-COVID things. Not even close. I don't care what political leaders say or don't say about it. It's gonna be a while. No, even longer than that. Got a duration in mind? Probably longer still. Not going to be quick, not going to be fast.

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1 minute ago, moleculo said:

that, GB, is a model.  It may not be mathematically rigorous or based on a scientific principle, but you are making a prediction based on past observations.

predictions are nothing more than results of models.  We build models to build more confidence in the predictions.  Further, models help us understand the impact of changes - i.e. if we do X, how does that impact the prediction?

Again, I understand how models work.  I am a hurricane junky.  I watch 4-5 different models everytime there is a hurricane.  None of this is ground-breaking stuff here.

To continue that analogy, hurricane models work pretty well inside of 3 days.  There's a margin of error, but they've really nailed it down over the years.

But hurricane models a week or more into the future?  They usually don't have much value.

 

That's my point here.  The guys making models to predict deaths months in advance are wasting their time.  There are far too many variables and their models, no matter how much science or math goes into them, have zero benefit a month into the future.

 

My prediction that deaths will rise over the next 2 weeks is totally different than the IMHE projections to October.

We know that cases are rising, so we know that deaths will rise, because deaths are a lagging indicator.

 

What we DON'T know is how long cases will rise.  I don't know if Florida will reverse course and lockdown.  Same goes for all locked down areas.

The rise in deaths may be very temporary.  It may last for months.  We simply have no idea right now, because we don't know how governments and people are going to respond.

 

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

Change that to "Am I supposed to be responsible for other people?", and I answer "Yes, absolutely".

Society needs a very high critical mass of people to willingly adopt widespread adoption of face coverings in dam-near all social situations.

And again (to the house) ... you don't wear a mask for yourself. You don't wear a mask for yourself. You don't wear a mask for yourself. 20 partygoers need to be wearing 20 masks for the other 19 people at the party. You don't make exposure choices for other people, and you're a host doing wrong if you force people to make an awkward face-covering-based attendance decision upon showing up to your doorstep.

As a society -- no, we're not yet supposed to be back to doing pre-COVID things. Not even close. I don't care what political leaders say or don't say about it. It's gonna be a while. No, even longer than that. Got a duration in mind? Probably longer still. Not going to be quick, not going to be fast.

There were 11 NEW cases of Covid for Staten Island yesterday. In a city that is killing it in testing. For a city rapidly moving towards phase 3. We locked down for 100 days. People aren't gonna wear masks at a party. Just not gonna happen.

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Just now, shader said:

Again, I understand how models work.  I am a hurricane junky.  I watch 4-5 different models everytime there is a hurricane.  None of this is ground-breaking stuff here.

To continue that analogy, hurricane models work pretty well inside of 3 days.  There's a margin of error, but they've really nailed it down over the years.

But hurricane models a week or more into the future?  They usually don't have much value.

 

That's my point here.  The guys making models to predict deaths months in advance are wasting their time.  There are far too many variables and their models, no matter how much science or math goes into them, have zero benefit a month into the future.

 

My prediction that deaths will rise over the next 2 weeks is totally different than the IMHE projections to October.

We know that cases are rising, so we know that deaths will rise, because deaths are a lagging indicator.

 

What we DON'T know is how long cases will rise.  I don't know if Florida will reverse course and lockdown.  Same goes for all locked down areas.

The rise in deaths may be very temporary.  It may last for months.  We simply have no idea right now, because we don't know how governments and people are going to respond.

 

Positive cases and hospitalized cases are much younger than in the past. So, there may not be a rise in deaths, given the low death rate of younger people. That's the hope and the outlook from Ethical Skeptic: https://mobile.twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic

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If you don't wear a mask for yourselves, why do doctors and nurses wear them? To protect the already infected patients? GTFO here. Its protect yourself AND others.

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

 

I've been to my Dad's house on both Memorial Day and Father's Day. Nobody wore masks and he invited us.

Been to a friend's child's birthday party last week. No masks. Even the grandparents there weren't wearing masks.

A party this upcoming Saturday for a cousin's child's birthday party. 30+ invited. Doubt anyone will be wearing masks. 

And we are throwing a graduation/birthday party for my son next Friday night. About 20 people.

Its DEFINITELY a risk. One we and every single person who attended these parties was and is willing to take.

Social gatherings are allowed :shrug:

 

I mean this is why schools won't open in the fall, and we won't have football, and bars and restaurants will go bankrupt.  Because people thought behaving like this was A-OK, and it's not just this guy it's everyone I know.  They are doing the same things, gathering as huge groups no masks and blaming the protests and nursing homes and generally moving on.

The leadership to tell people this is 100% not ok is just not happening.

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6 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Change that to "Am I supposed to be responsible for other people?", and I answer "Yes, absolutely".

Society needs a very high critical mass of people to willingly adopt widespread adoption of face coverings in dam-near all social situations.

And again (to the house) ... you don't wear a mask for yourself. You don't wear a mask for yourself. You don't wear a mask for yourself. 20 partygoers need to be wearing 20 masks for the other 19 people at the party. You don't make exposure choices for other people, and you're a host doing wrong if you force people to make an awkward face-covering-based attendance decision upon showing up to your doorstep.

As a society -- no, we're not yet supposed to be back to doing pre-COVID things. Not even close. I don't care what political leaders say or don't say about it. It's gonna be a while. No, even longer than that. Got a duration in mind? Probably longer still. Not going to be quick, not going to be fast.

You can only be responsible for yourself, but every individual who sets a good example makes a societal shift that much easier. There are so many “not gonna happen” moments during this pandemic that actually have transpired, you’d think people would re-appraise what is and isn’t possible. I haven’t lost faith in humanity yet, but the public’s unwillingness to make small sacrifices is extremely frustrating.

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Just now, jobarules said:

If you don't wear a mask for yourselves, why do doctors and nurses wear them? To protect the already infected patients? GTFO here. Its protect yourself AND others.

Different kinds of masks. That's why I typically try to remember to say "face covering", but I forgot upthread.

If you're able to rock a fit-tested, welt-raising, tight-as-eff N95 all the time ... then yeah, that would be for your own personal protection. Like a doctor or nurse in a medical-care setting.

For everyday folks going grocery shopping, retail, visiting family, etc. ... various types of earloop masks (homemade or not), bandannas, etc. help protect others from breath aerosols, droplets, etc. From what I understand, two people wearing earloop masks and standing at least a few feet apart (if not six feet or better) are both protected not too much worse than one person wearing a tight N95.

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12 minutes ago, jobarules said:

There were 11 NEW cases of Covid for Staten Island yesterday. In a city that is killing it in testing. For a city rapidly moving towards phase 3. We locked down for 100 days. People aren't gonna wear masks at a party. Just not gonna happen.

I forgot for a second that you were in New York City. That might give you guys a little more leeway here based on recent results like these. For now -- for now -- your immediate social sphere might be able to safely assume that no one close to you is infected.

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17 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Phase 3 on track for July 6 for NYC. This includes indoor dining at 50% capacity. This will be a HUGE test.

Interesting how this was timed. I had hoped that Phase 1 would have been the Tuesday after Memorial Day but it was probably pushed back to enter Phase 3 after 4th of July. Smart, imo. I've been critical of Cuomo at times, especially with the nursing home debacle, but I will give him credit if it doesn't come back heavily in NYC. I can't imagine it not happening but fingers crossed.

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9 minutes ago, jobarules said:

If you don't wear a mask for yourselves, why do doctors and nurses wear them? To protect the already infected patients? GTFO here. Its protect yourself AND others.

Different masks, and different risk associated with doctoring vs. party going.

But let’s assume there is a small risk reduction for the individual wearing the mask. Why not wear one to protect yourself and your loved ones if you engage in a high risk activity?

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I already know the answer to this, but I just need confirmation...

I am scheduled to attend a conference in Dallas middle of next month with approximately 1500 attendees. 

A) There's no way it's happening, right?

B) If it does, it's really irresponsible isn't it?

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13 minutes ago, culdeus said:

 

I mean this is why schools won't open in the fall, and we won't have football, and bars and restaurants will go bankrupt.  Because people thought behaving like this was A-OK, and it's not just this guy it's everyone I know.  They are doing the same things, gathering as huge groups no masks and blaming the protests and nursing homes and generally moving on.

The leadership to tell people this is 100% not ok is just not happening.

I'm the opposite. If people are ALREADY doing this then schools should be open.

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2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I already know the answer to this, but I just need confirmation...

I am scheduled to attend a conference in Dallas middle of next month with approximately 1500 attendees. 

A) There's no way it's happening, right?

B) If it does, it's really irresponsible isn't it?

Is it a plexiglass or mask convention?

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12 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Different kinds of masks. That's why I typically try to remember to say "face covering", but I forgot upthread.

If you're able to rock a fit-tested, welt-raising, tight-as-eff N95 all the time ... then yeah, that would be for your own personal protection. Like a doctor or nurse in a medical-care setting.

For everyday folks going grocery shopping, retail, visiting family, etc. ... various types of earloop masks (homemade or not), bandannas, etc. help protect others from breath aerosols, droplets, etc. From what I understand, two people wearing earloop masks and standing at least a few feet apart (if not six feet or better) are both protected not too much worse than one person wearing a tight N95.

sorry for cursing in my acronym above. You've been more than patient dealing with people like me lol and I should do the same.

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I don't know, I'd be even extra cautious around loved ones. I couldn't imagine throwing a party that ended with multiple friends and family members having to be hospitalized, or worse, soon after

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2 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I'm the opposite. If people are ALREADY doing this then schools should be open.

Schools won't open with full ICUs.  End of story.  

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2 minutes ago, jamny said:

I don't know, I'd be even extra cautious around loved ones. I couldn't imagine throwing a party that ended with multiple friends and family members having to be hospitalized, or worse, soon after

Invite said "if you don't feel comfortable coming we completely understand".

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I cannot wrap my head around the massive misconception that these generic 'masks' are exclusively for the wearer and not everyone else around them.

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6 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I already know the answer to this, but I just need confirmation...

I am scheduled to attend a conference in Dallas middle of next month with approximately 1500 attendees. 

A) There's no way it's happening, right?

B) If it does, it's really irresponsible isn't it?

Correct, it won't happen ...in part because it would be irresponsible of them, and irresponsible for all 1,500 to attend.  My national conference (accounting educators) in early August has already been cancelled.  But then again, how can they not have announced by now?  Agenda planning, plenary speakers, housing/food service logistics.  Those would all seem to be up in the air.

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Just now, jobarules said:

Invite said "if you don't feel comfortable coming we completely understand".

How about having it say "Mask required at all times"?

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1 minute ago, jamny said:

How about having it say "Mask required at all times"?

Maybe even a medically-themed costume party?

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1 minute ago, jamny said:

How about having it say "Mask required at all times"?

How does one go in a pool, eat food, drink beer with a mask?

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Just now, jobarules said:

How does one go in a pool, eat food, drink beer with a mask?

Be more cognizant of keeping your distance while doing any of the above.

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2 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Be more cognizant of keeping your distance while doing any of the above.

The pool? He said at all times :shrug:

Again hyperbole runs rampant in this thread.

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35 minutes ago, shader said:

Again, I understand how models work.  I am a hurricane junky.  I watch 4-5 different models everytime there is a hurricane.  None of this is ground-breaking stuff here.

Fellow hurricane junky here (also my degree that I don't use). I almost posted with a weather model analogy as well. Look, if you had just responded to the model with "I believe that this is an underestimation based on the number of new cases we have" I wouldn't have batted an eye, nor felt the need to comment. I actually would probably agree with that statement. But you threw out a prediction that seemed unreasonable to me based on where we are at now, and I responded to the math. 

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I've been very cautious throughout this whole thing but 0% chance I'd wear a mask at a family party at this point, so I can totally understand that perspective.  I'd either decide the risk was low enough, or I'd decide not to attend.  Going but wearing a mask the whole time isn't even an option I'd consider.  

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, jobarules said:

The pool? He said at all times :shrug:

Again hyperbole runs rampant in this thread.

I think his point was making the default status mask-wearing. Framing the invitation that way makes it clear it will be the (new) norm and doesn’t alienate anyone considering wearing one, for fear of not fitting in.

Again, nothing is all-or-none. While I think swimming is pretty low risk, it’s not too difficult to maintain a decent space cushion between pool-goers.

Edited by Terminalxylem
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2 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

I've been very cautious throughout this whole thing but 0% chance I'd wear a mask at a family party at this point, so I can totally understand that perspective.  I'd either decide the risk was low enough, or I'd decide not to attend.  Going but wearing a mask the whole time isn't even an option I'd consider.  

Why not?

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Just now, Terminalxylem said:

I think his point was making the default status mask-wearing. Framing the invitation that way makes it clear that it’ll be the norm and doesn’t alienate anyone considering wearing one, for fear of not fitting in.

Again, nothing is all-or-none. While I think swimming is pretty low risk, it’s not too difficult to maintain a decent space cushion between pool-goers.

But you can see where the mask wearing at this type of event is losing effectiveness when half the time people aren't wearing one.

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Just now, jobarules said:

But you can see where the mask wearing at this type of event is losing effectiveness when half the time people aren't wearing one.

Sure. But I bet if a few people wore them, it might influence others as well. Worst case scenario, you’ve mitigated the risk somewhat with very little downside IMO.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, shader said:

Again, I understand how models work.  I am a hurricane junky.  I watch 4-5 different models everytime there is a hurricane.  None of this is ground-breaking stuff here.

To continue that analogy, hurricane models work pretty well inside of 3 days.  There's a margin of error, but they've really nailed it down over the years.

But hurricane models a week or more into the future?  They usually don't have much value.

 

That's my point here.  The guys making models to predict deaths months in advance are wasting their time.  There are far too many variables and their models, no matter how much science or math goes into them, have zero benefit a month into the future.

 

My prediction that deaths will rise over the next 2 weeks is totally different than the IMHE projections to October.

We know that cases are rising, so we know that deaths will rise, because deaths are a lagging indicator.

 

What we DON'T know is how long cases will rise.  I don't know if Florida will reverse course and lockdown.  Same goes for all locked down areas.

The rise in deaths may be very temporary.  It may last for months.  We simply have no idea right now, because we don't know how governments and people are going to respond.

 

so can I assume that you don't even look at hurricane models beyond 3 days?  You publicly lambaste >1 week models from "meteorologists"?  You don't do any hurricane prep until you are in the cone 3 days out? 

When I lived in a hurricane area, forecasts a week out absolutely had value - that let me get ahead of the crowd in terms of stocking up on food, ice, gasoline, plywood, etc.  Maybe I wouldn't need it, but it's much better to be prepped early than later.  For sure there are other places where it's really important - planning a trip?  planning an elective surgery?  trying to get insurance on a house?  It would be nice to know if there is a possibility of a hurricane first.

Models that far out do have value.  The actual number may not be accurate, but you can get a sense of the effect of mitigation efforts and you can look for trends.  That's the point.  IHME now includes models for continued easing social distancing mandates and  95% mask adoption in public.  This allows policy makers to judge the benefits of various policies.  for example, current trend has 180k deaths on Sep 30, but 146k with masks.  As a policy maker, I would take that into account, regardless if 180k is accurate or not.

Edited by moleculo
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24 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I already know the answer to this, but I just need confirmation...

I am scheduled to attend a conference in Dallas middle of next month with approximately 1500 attendees. 

A) There's no way it's happening, right?

B) If it does, it's really irresponsible isn't it?

Every science and medical meeting I'm aware of is going virtual for the next 6 months. Some will be free, most will have reduced registration fees.

I'm involved in planning 2 sister medical meetings in Miami Beach in Jan 2021, with 200-400 attendees, and our meeting planner has received some verbal assurances from the venues about no cancellation fees, but nothing in writing. The planner is also worried about our liability if someone gets sick at the meeting, sponsorship, her fees, attendees who buy tickets before a possible meeting cancellation, low attendance, etc. The options are cancel, postpone, hybrid and virtual. I think it will be virtual for one year, then who knows. 

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5 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Why not?

Because that sounds like a miserable experience.  :shrug:  I wear a mask whenever I go out as an obligation to myself and to others, not because I like wearing a mask.  If I was going to an hours-long celebration I wouldn't want to wear a mask the whole time.  I'd assess the setting, my level of trust in the other guests, our collective risk exposures, etc. and decide whether to go maskless or to stay home.  I would totally understand if someone did want to wear a mask to the party, though.  

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Just popped in to check on the thread today.  I see the sky is still falling.  I'm still not wearing a mask.  Spent the last few days in a vacation town helping some friends with their properties in another state.  I'm still seeing the mask usage at less than 10% everywhere I go.  

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2 minutes ago, ragincajun said:

I have been wearing a buff with a Tarpon print.  It makes me seem a lot cooler than I am.

It is pure class

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Just now, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Because that sounds like a miserable experience.  :shrug:  I wear a mask whenever I go out as an obligation to myself and to others, not because I like wearing a mask.  If I was going to an hours-long celebration I wouldn't want to wear a mask the whole time.  I'd assess the setting, my level of trust in the other guests, our collective risk exposures, etc. and decide whether to go maskless or to stay home.  I would totally understand if someone did want to wear a mask to the party, though.  

I don’t think most people enjoy wearing masks. But like anything else, it becomes easier once you get in the habit.

Short of a pre-party questionnaire, I don’t think there’s a great way to accurately assess the exposure risk. Personally, I think all group gatherings should be put on hold for the foreseeable future. Superspreaders are a big part of this disease, and we haven’t got a handle on identifying them prospectively yet.

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I think I've settled on a cloth mask with a replaceable internal filter for the duration.  Using surgical/medical type stuff looks a little douchey to me.  

While I get the whole (you wear masks for other people) thing, I'd rather at least try to do it for myself too as much as is practical.

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To each his own I guess, but I have a large, close family and we collectively decided there is not one event that important that we can't postpone or celebrate later. In the past couple months, there have been one wedding cancelled, multiple 1 year old birthday parties not thrown (at least for the whole family), and one virtual graduation. My girls are celebrating huge birthdays next month--one turning 16 and one turning 21--they both didn't want a party because in my oldest's words "it just isn't worth the risk."  We all are going to stay safe and have a huge celebration down the road.

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1 hour ago, jobarules said:

 

I've been to my Dad's house on both Memorial Day and Father's Day. Nobody wore masks and he invited us.

Been to a friend's child's birthday party last week. No masks. Even the grandparents there weren't wearing masks.

A party this upcoming Saturday for a cousin's child's birthday party. 30+ invited. Doubt anyone will be wearing masks. 

And we are throwing a graduation/birthday party for my son next Friday night. About 20 people.

Its DEFINITELY a risk. One we and every single person who attended these parties was and is willing to take.

Social gatherings are allowed :shrug:

You have been blasted for this post a bunch of times already.  Figured I would join in and point out something that everyone overlooked.  Besides your 2 visits with your Dad, the other 3 are all children's parties.  You said all in attendance were willing to take the risk.

Hey little Johnny, after I finish changing your diaper, will you sign this waiver?

Sorry, couldn't resist

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47 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Schools won't open with full ICUs.  End of story.  

You wouldn’t think so but AZ doesn’t seem to be putting the breaks on any plans for opening schools and that’s about a month away. Same with Florida and the professional sports. I don’t think we can make definitive statements like that at this point. 

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3 minutes ago, Captain Cranks said:

6/24 Florida Stats in...

Another 5,000 cases although the infection rate takes a dramatic day over day drop since significantly more were tested.

I figured the heat would knock this thing out.

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