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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)

shader said:
That's a good point. The only way to do it perfect is to track cellphones which would be seen as a real invasion of privacy.  I was listening to a podcast regarding how it was done in SK.  People in the USA would never, ever submit to that. 

Essentially there was a girl that tested positive for covid and then her location data was tracked and everyone that had been in the restaurant where she picked up food got alerts that they were close to someone that had covid.  I don't remember all the details as it's been a few months, but it was something along those lines.  And we know that will never work here.
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In SK the contact tracers also had access to credit card transactions and CCTV to catch any missing cell phone data and to actually even pinpoint contacts. I read an example of one of the cases where it was documented exactly the times of certain purchases and that the infected case had used the bathroom at one establishment in addition to the cell phone data. Those people that received the text notification knew the exact times for these things. 

It is one thing to receive a text message that Infected person A was at starbucks on April 12th. It is completely different to receive notice that person A made a purchase at that starbucks on April 12th at 1:38pm and then used the bathroom at 1:42 pm. If you checked your own receipt and saw your purchase was at 1:39 you are probably rushing to get tested immediately. 

These things also help the contact tracers jog people's memories during conversations. 

Contact tracer: What did you do Saturday(6 days ago)? 

Positive case: Went to home depot and worked around the house. 

CT: Oh, ok I see you made a purchase also at the Chipotle next door to home depot. 

PC: Oh yeah, I grabbed lunch and ran into a friend there. We talked for several minutes. 

 
AAABatteries said:
Infectious dose meaning intentionally exposing folks to it?  That was something I can remember us (FBG) discussing a long time ago but it seemed like it was dismissed as a bad idea at the time.
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Bad idea, at least until we understand the potential for chronic organ damage, which may exist even in mild infection.

 
Biff84 said:
Have to get the level of the virus down to a level that can be monitored in the community. Contact tracing in several states right now is essentially - you’ve all been exposed, hopefully you’re doing the things we told you to do.
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Yeah, it has worked in HI, up until just recently...

 
Really enjoying this Osterholm podcast - one thing he keeps repeating is, "what is our goal?".  And the moderator point blank asks him what to do - here is what is really scary to me, he doesn't really have a good answer.  This guy is supposed to be a leading expert and he doesn't have an answer.  At different times he says we need to protect the vunerable but he also thinks we should open schools.  If I'm following everything he seems to suggest that we need to just accept that we have to live with this and work to reduce hotspots until there's a vaccine. 

 
AAABatteries said:
Really enjoying this Osterholm podcast - one thing he keeps repeating is, "what is our goal?".  And the moderator point blank asks him what to do - here is what is really scary to me, he doesn't really have a good answer.  This guy is supposed to be a leading expert and he doesn't have an answer.  At different times he says we need to protect the vunerable but he also thinks we should open schools.  If I'm following everything he seems to suggest that we need to just accept that we have to live with this and work to reduce hotspots until there's a vaccine. 
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This has been exceptionally frustrating for me, I asked the same question yesterday.   Nobody here has a good answer either.

I'm no red hat trump lover (quite the opposite), but I find myself leaning towards the right wing news on this topic.  It's a horrible wormhole to fall into but they source their points well, that we have as a society decoupled from lowering death count as the goal, to what? Nobody has an idea.

 
JetMaxx said:
Will there be another spike in the northeast or has it primarily run its course here?
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no reason not to expect re-spikes. my county in SW PA is closing bars and restaurants tomorrow for at least two weeks cause of re-spiking, after opening back up in June.

governor mandated.

 
culdeus said:
This has been exceptionally frustrating for me, I asked the same question yesterday.   Nobody here has a good answer either.

I'm no red hat trump lover (quite the opposite), but I find myself leaning towards the right wing news on this topic.  It's a horrible wormhole to fall into but they source their points well, that we have as a society decoupled from lowering death count as the goal, to what? Nobody has an idea.
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Think how complex this is here in the states and then think what 2nd/3rd World countries are going through.  That podcast talked about million(s) of Yemen children dying of starvation as a part of this.

 
song said:
no reason not to expect re-spikes. my county in SW PA is closing bars and restaurants tomorrow for at least two weeks cause of re-spiking, after opening back up in June.

governor mandated.
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I’m in SE PA. Hadn’t heard that. We have a small mom and pop type restaurant, we’ve survived but due to the size of our facility and limited capacity and space for distancing we didn’t reopen for eat in. 

 
mr roboto said:
Getting a test tomorrow morning. I have nasal drip, a light cough and sore throat.  Getting some phlegm up when I cough now and I also have tightness in my chest.  Light headache. 
 

No fever or muscle aches yet. Had some intestinal discomfort yesterday but in fairness I ate and drank like a pig over the fourth weekend so who knows.
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Got tested. Short swab (not the brain tickler). 7-9 days for results. Nurse said whatever I have is viral (not allergies). Said to assume it is COVID and also to assume everyone in my house has it. 
 

2 of my daughters had sore throats recently. 
 

Roboto household on lockdown. ####. 

 
AAABatteries said:
It was more a comment that it's not even something discussed much any more - at least that I've seen.  I get that it's really difficult and doesn't fit in to our current operating model.  I'm still wondering if those areas that have gotten a handle on things have any good plans to try it.
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shader said:
I hope not.  All states in the North that are doing a great job of handling the virus should be implementing contact tracing.  Are they?  I don't really have any idea.  

But if you combine contact tracing with masks, that's the best shot at keeping it from breaking out again in an area.

Contact tracing is a worthless exercise in the 20 or so states that are dealing with covid outbreaks, imo.
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RI Governor continues to request that people keep a contact diary. There's also an app available that essentially takes the work out of your hands by using location services. It keeps the info locally (on your phone) and only goes to DHS if you choose to share it should you test positive. Auto wipes the data after 20 days, presumably deleting the 21st day? I'm not sure on that part since I haven't had it on my phone long enough as we're just starting to got out some for controlled play dates to keep the kids mental health from plummeting. When it was just me going to 3 or 4 stores in one day, every 10 days(ish) I just kept a file on my computer.

 
culdeus said:
This has been exceptionally frustrating for me, I asked the same question yesterday.   Nobody here has a good answer either.

I'm no red hat trump lover (quite the opposite), but I find myself leaning towards the right wing news on this topic.  It's a horrible wormhole to fall into but they source their points well, that we have as a society decoupled from lowering death count as the goal, to what? Nobody has an idea.
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Not sure how to phrase this in a way that can stay in this forum. The issue with the strategy of a certain group of people,  is that we are a couple of weeks away from that strategy completely falling apart and blowing up in their faces.  It's not a political statement, because there are many non-political people that don't think covid is a big deal.

I also disagree with the "nobody has an idea" mentality.  Look at Europe.  Copy them.  Yeah they will have to remain vigilant until a vaccine, but there's a great example of what to do.  We have states that have gotten through the virus and are currently doing great. Copy those states!  

The idea that no one knows what to do is totally untrue.  There are countless examples of what to do.  People just don't want to do what needs to be done.

 
JetMaxx said:
I’m in SE PA. Hadn’t heard that. We have a small mom and pop type restaurant, we’ve survived but due to the size of our facility and limited capacity and space for distancing we didn’t reopen for eat in. 
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Wolfe supposedly announcing today.  Reported on local tv and newspaper yesterday. Westmoreland County, also Beaver. good luck to you.

 
shader said:
Not sure how to phrase this in a way that can stay in this forum. The issue with the strategy of a certain group of people,  is that we are a couple of weeks away from that strategy completely falling apart and blowing up in their faces.  It's not a political statement, because there are many non-political people that don't think covid is a big deal.

I also disagree with the "nobody has an idea" mentality.  Look at Europe.  Copy them.  Yeah they will have to remain vigilant until a vaccine, but there's a great example of what to do.  We have states that have gotten through the virus and are currently doing great. Copy those states!  

The idea that no one knows what to do is totally untrue.  There are countless examples of what to do.  People just don't want to do what needs to be done.
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Or Asia or Canada or anywhere else in the world besides Brazil.  

 
shader said:
Not sure how to phrase this in a way that can stay in this forum. The issue with the strategy of a certain group of people,  is that we are a couple of weeks away from that strategy completely falling apart and blowing up in their faces.  It's not a political statement, because there are many non-political people that don't think covid is a big deal.

I also disagree with the "nobody has an idea" mentality.  Look at Europe.  Copy them.  Yeah they will have to remain vigilant until a vaccine, but there's a great example of what to do.  We have states that have gotten through the virus and are currently doing great. Copy those states!  

The idea that no one knows what to do is totally untrue.  There are countless examples of what to do.  People just don't want to do what needs to be done.
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I think this gets back to my comment about our goals though.  I think it's still very much unknown what impact we are having that has nothing to do with actually having the virus.  It's obvious that your goal is to limit Covid deaths - but that potentially ignores other deaths and impacts.  Economic impacts, societal impacts, mental health impacts, etc.  I actually tend to agree with you on what we should do but I think it's only correct to say that we know what to do when it comes to virus spread.

 
Work update from a healthcare worker. Sacramento area is getting hit pretty hard. I work in one of the outlying counties, right on the border with Sac County and we are impacted: into our surge level 2 bed placement. We had been sending all our positive cases to our sister hospitals (large Level 1 trauma hospitals with huge dedicated COVID wards- multiple beds) they are all full. Had to shut down our regular ICU, and move all COVID negative patients into essentially broom closets and turn our existing ICU into a dedicated COVID ward. All 8 beds are filled, in less than a week.

All this to say, I had relaxed my stance on the seriousness of this pandemic- I'm not anymore. For God's sake, if you're going out in public, wear a mask. When you see an otherwise healthy 30-something year old drop their oxygen saturations into the 70s just from getting up to use the bathroom, and take a good 10 minutes to come back up to 92% (low normal) with supplemental oxygen on, it is sobering. Politics and other bs aside, just protect yourselves and your families. 

 
shader said:
Not sure how to phrase this in a way that can stay in this forum. The issue with the strategy of a certain group of people,  is that we are a couple of weeks away from that strategy completely falling apart and blowing up in their faces.  It's not a political statement, because there are many non-political people that don't think covid is a big deal.

I also disagree with the "nobody has an idea" mentality.  Look at Europe.  Copy them.  Yeah they will have to remain vigilant until a vaccine, but there's a great example of what to do.  We have states that have gotten through the virus and are currently doing great. Copy those states!  

The idea that no one knows what to do is totally untrue.  There are countless examples of what to do.  People just don't want to do what needs to be done.
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But that doesn't explain how to know if what you are doing is failing.  

The "people in charge" seem to be leaning towards "Case counts don't matter" angle.  Where the opposition is citing W2W.  

Case counts seem nearly certainly to not be the way to go about it.  I'm willing to be shown I should care about case counts, but nobody has made a compelling case (so to speak).  

I'm willing to listen to targeted approaches where cases overwhelm hospitals in a specific area.  Those situations are seemingly avoidable, but again, I don't see how raw case counts are the answer there.

 
Case counts put added pressure on everyone especially in the wake of so many people on unemployment and without insurance. I don't need any added financial stress nor does our inadequate health care system.

 
culdeus said:
But that doesn't explain how to know if what you are doing is failing.  

The "people in charge" seem to be leaning towards "Case counts don't matter" angle.  Where the opposition is citing W2W.  

Case counts seem nearly certainly to not be the way to go about it.  I'm willing to be shown I should care about case counts, but nobody has made a compelling case (so to speak).  

I'm willing to listen to targeted approaches where cases overwhelm hospitals in a specific area.  Those situations are seemingly avoidable, but again, I don't see how raw case counts are the answer there.
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Case counts are your leading indicator for hospitilizations/deaths. By the time you are getting the latter numbers it  is far too late.

 
culdeus said:
But that doesn't explain how to know if what you are doing is failing.  

The "people in charge" seem to be leaning towards "Case counts don't matter" angle.  Where the opposition is citing W2W.  

Case counts seem nearly certainly to not be the way to go about it.  I'm willing to be shown I should care about case counts, but nobody has made a compelling case (so to speak).  

I'm willing to listen to targeted approaches where cases overwhelm hospitals in a specific area.  Those situations are seemingly avoidable, but again, I don't see how raw case counts are the answer there.
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I'm confused.  If your argument is it's not "that bad" why did you pull your kids out of camp?

I'm not trying to argue, I'm just not understanding the point trying to be made

 
shader said:
I hope not.  All states in the North that are doing a great job of handling the virus should be implementing contact tracing.  Are they?  I don't really have any idea.  

But if you combine contact tracing with masks, that's the best shot at keeping it from breaking out again in an area.

Contact tracing is a worthless exercise in the 20 or so states that are dealing with covid outbreaks, imo.
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Sadly, contact tracing may be irrelevant in some of the areas it matters greatly. The state of New York which hired so many people to do contact tracing and trumpeted its importance a few months ago backed away from it under the political strife of the protests and has now ordered its data collectors to not pursue questions on whether a person has attended a BLM rally, protest, etc.  That is extremely vital info that, if not garnered, pretty much defeats the purpose.

 
jobarules said:
NYC return to school plan

https://nypost.com/2020/07/08/nyc-students-will-return-to-school-on-staggered-schedules/
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My daughter attends two high schools -- a traditional high school in the mornings, and an arts-curriculum high school in the afternoons.

The arts school is going with something close to NYC's plan -- individual students will be on campus twice a week. When not on campus, students will attend Zoom meetings -- including critiques with classmates -- and work on their projects independently from home.

The traditional high school (and my son's middle school) have not yet firmed up plans, though my spidey-sense is that a mixed-approach like NYC will be used.

 
TheWinz said:
No COVID deaths in Connecticut for the first time since 17 March.   :thumbup:
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In related news, the census now shows the population of Connecticut to be 37.  

Seriously though, does anyone know of any particular thing Conn. is doing that would drive this or is it a coincidental trend?

 
Doug B said:
My daughter attends two high schools -- a traditional high school in the mornings, and an arts-curriculum high school in the afternoons.

The arts school is going with something close to NYC's plan -- individual students will be on campus twice a week. When not on campus, students will attend Zoom meetings -- including critiques with classmates -- and work on their projects independently from home.

The traditional high school (and my son's middle school) have not yet firmed up plans, though my spidey-sense is that a mixed-approach like NYC will be used.
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My conservative school district/region was one of the first to pull the plug and, as of now, seems to have no plan to return. It seems telling that all these schools pulled out but are now willing to continue when it is arguably worse than before. I think Harvard University announced already there will be no on-site classes this year. I wonder (and this is just a question aloud) if the decisions to reconvene are being driven by pressure of parents who don't want to be stuck home schooling their kids (I know every district I have knowledge of has issued surveys to how parents would like to proceed and there is a massive response (90%+) of parents saying they want their kids in school, many of them saying not because of safety but so they can get their lives back to normal, go to work, etc). 

 
At what point do we get to stop politely ignoring the idiots who can't figure out what to do in a grocery store?

The store near me has had arrows in the aisles since AT LEAST the middle of April. They're very clear and  easy to follow. There are signs referencing them all over the store.  Yet every freaking time I go in, at least 30% of the people are going the wrong way. Its absolute lunacy.

Just now, I'm in the middle of a trip and there's a well dressed woman in her 40's dragging two kids behind her. No cart, so she's obviously just there for a couple of things. And of course, she's going the wrong way (I saw her in 3 separate aisles). She's in her own little world in the rice aisle and (after waiting 20 seconds)  I politely say "excuse me" so i can go by her  (going the right way). She doesn't hear me/ignores me, so I just try to pass. Of course....THEN she backs up into me. She apologizes and I say "its ok, but you're going the wrong way". I guess she thought I said that I was going the wrong way and she says "that's ok". I could have just kept walking, but I'm getting kinda tired of this so I respond...."No.....YOU'RE going the wrong way". She claims she didn't see the arrows. They've been up for at least 3 months.

Then I turn to the next aisle and THREE people are going the wrong way. 

We're honestly doomed if these are the people we need to cater to.

 
Shutout said:
My conservative school district/region was one of the first to pull the plug and, as of now, seems to have no plan to return. It seems telling that all these schools pulled out but are now willing to continue when it is arguably worse than before. I think Harvard University announced already there will be no on-site classes this year. I wonder (and this is just a question aloud) if the decisions to reconvene are being driven by pressure of parents who don't want to be stuck home schooling their kids (I know every district I have knowledge of has issued surveys to how parents would like to proceed and there is a massive response (90%+) of parents saying they want their kids in school, many of them saying not because of safety but so they can get their lives back to normal, go to work, etc). 
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I don't think my kids' school system is soliciting opinions from parents, honestly. I'm sure there are plenty who simply can't sustain distance learning due to the parents job situations. Obviously, age of the children is a huge factor, as well.

My concern for my kids is both physical health and mental health. Ages are 6, 8, and 12. The 12yo crushed distance learning and is able to hang out with 2 neighborhood kids his age so he's managing fairly well. Full time distance learning for him is actually better since he has the class clown thing and no classroom saw a huge maturity jump and he pulled his grades and teacher comments from some As / most Bs / 1 C with "Needs to focus / disruptive / etc." to straight As and "Awesome student / Great turnaround / etc."

The little guys just can't handle the lack of socialization. It was really showing over the final month of DL after only 2 months. I don't see them, Mrs. FE, or myself being able to handle a full year of DL. Even with counseling, which we're already doing, it's just not good for mental health. Some kind of mix would be totally acceptable, with 2 days at school and 2 home. But 100% isolation with only Google/Zoom meets just won't work for a full school year. I don't even think it would work for more than a month or two at a time. 

 
TLEF316 said:
At what point do we get to stop politely ignoring the idiots who can't figure out what to do in a grocery store?

The store near me has had arrows in the aisles since AT LEAST the middle of April. They're very clear and  easy to follow. There are signs referencing them all over the store.  Yet every freaking time I go in, at least 30% of the people are going the wrong way. Its absolute lunacy.

Just now, I'm in the middle of a trip and there's a well dressed woman in her 40's dragging two kids behind her. No cart, so she's obviously just there for a couple of things. And of course, she's going the wrong way (I saw her in 3 separate aisles). She's in her own little world in the rice aisle and (after waiting 20 seconds)  I politely say "excuse me" so i can go by her  (going the right way). She doesn't hear me/ignores me, so I just try to pass. Of course....THEN she backs up into me. She apologizes and I say "its ok, but you're going the wrong way". I guess she thought I said that I was going the wrong way and she says "that's ok". I could have just kept walking, but I'm getting kinda tired of this so I respond...."No.....YOU'RE going the wrong way". She claims she didn't see the arrows. They've been up for at least 3 months.

Then I turn to the next aisle and THREE people are going the wrong way. 

We're honestly doomed if these are the people we need to cater to.
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"I aint lettin no arrows tell me where to go"   Not a real quote.

There is still a bit of this hear...or as we have gotten further along people have more ignored the arrows.  Thankfully not too busy when I was there yesterday.  To my surprise, the mask mandate in that area is working...I did not see a single person in the store without a mask.  And most people did well to distance.

 
nirad3 said:
That is sad and depressing.  I am sad for my children.  My family should be in a very happy period of life with where my kids are age-wise, and this is just a big pile of crap.  

I feel bad for my parents, who are in their twilight years.

And yeah, I am selfishly bummed that we can't do things that we like doing.

Not trying to argue or tell you that you're a chicken little or whatever.  It just makes me sad.
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nirad3, i want to acknowledge, and honor, your sadness.  i know from another thread that your suffering is real, and i was a little sad then.

i'm a little sad now for my grandkids.   but i want to offer another perspective.

i don't know your kids, but i know kids can be amazingly resilient, and i've seen smiles, and a twinkle in the eye, from kids dealing with all kinds of ####.

so hopefully your kids, and my grandkids will be OK.

i don't know your parents, but my wife and i are in our 60's and 70's, and we're good.   hadn't thought of us being in our twilight years, but recent years have been kind of twilight zoney.

my wife and i, and presumably your parents, got to come up in a great country (despite it's flaws) during a great period of time.  truly blessed.

even now, not denying pain, but from my experience, if i can breathe, here, now...i can be happy.

sort of sorry to preach.

 
AAABatteries said:
Have we collectively given up on contact tracing?
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Florida was well on it's way.  It was the bright spot of this whole fiasco.  Now that the data/science is diverting from the agenda, it seems we are sticking to the agenda making all that work basically pointless and a complete waste of money.  If we aren't going to follow the data/science, what's the point in having it?  So yeah, here in Florida, we've bailed on it.

 
My people annoyance this past week...

We visited my brother and sister in law near Memphis.  They have all be very careful, as have we about our distancing...so feel pretty safe visiting them.  Short enough trip no stops are needed along the way...and they have a pool so a good few days to relax and see some family.

While there, I went out running and walking on the greenway area a few times.  When i run around here in the neighborhood, people will move to the sides or one of us will get in the road...no problem to keep distanced.  On the greenway there...people walking/running 2 wide...and not moving at all.  In areas where the path is plenty wide to distance if you go single file, but no room to really run off the path.  :wall:    Not sure why its difficult to just slide to the side as people pass you.  Most did well...but there were 3 or so people/groups each day that did not budge.  I mean, most were walking and they were probably more likely to be breathing in anything i was exhaling than the other way around...but still.  Seems like another simple thing to limit possible exposure to anything and people still refuse.

 
TLEF316 said:
She claims she didn't see the arrows. They've been up for at least 3 months.

Then I turn to the next aisle and THREE people are going the wrong way. 
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Of the three grocery stores I regularly visit, only one has floor arrows 'enforcing' a one-way-aisles scheme. In that particular store, there are two places where following the arrows will lead you into a corner with no means of escape except to violate an arrow. There's another spot where two floor arrows in the same aisle, about twelve feet apart, point toward each other -- if you approach from the north, it's a northbound aisle ... if you approach the same aisle from the south, it's southbound.

In that store, I frequently "back into" an aisle so that even though I'm traveling the 'wrong way' ... I'm facing the 'right' way. Thankfully, I don't go to that store during peak hours.

 
culdeus said:
But that doesn't explain how to know if what you are doing is failing.  

The "people in charge" seem to be leaning towards "Case counts don't matter" angle.  Where the opposition is citing W2W.  

Case counts seem nearly certainly to not be the way to go about it.  I'm willing to be shown I should care about case counts, but nobody has made a compelling case (so to speak).  

I'm willing to listen to targeted approaches where cases overwhelm hospitals in a specific area.  Those situations are seemingly avoidable, but again, I don't see how raw case counts are the answer there.
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I tried answering the "what is the goal" question yesterday by pointing to the metrics NY is using and providing links to those metrics and definitions. I realize now that isn't what you're asking. 

To answer your micro-question about cases: raw case counts are not a truly reliable metric, because obviously raw cases is a function of testing. That's where certain people's heads are, they say "more cases are coming up because we're testing more". Thankfully, math has an answer for that. The metric to use here is % Positive Cases. It requires an adequate number of tests. If you test 50,000 people and 500 are positive, the % Positive rate is 1.0%. If you test 20,000 people and 400 are positive, the % Positive rate is 2.0%. "Would you rather have 400 positive tests or 500 positive tests?" In this example, I would prefer to have the 500 positive tests out of 50,000 rather than the 400 positive tests out of 20,000. So the answer isn't "cases", it's % Positives.

The macro question of what is the goal? Maybe it should be better defined, but reasonably: 1) low fatalities, 2) low hospitalizations (measured by available capacity), and 3) a low % Positive rate.

Every region will have a definition or acceptance of what is "low". In NY, the % positive rate is around 1%, there are 850 people in the hospital statewide, less than 200 in ICU, and deaths have been in the single digits recently (last 7-10 days or so).

Is that acceptable to keep moving forward? Maybe that's more rhetorical, but if I were other states I'd be taking a long hard look at what NY and Europe did to control the spread. Because it worked.

 
Doug B said:
Of the three grocery stores I regularly visit, only one has floor arrows 'enforcing' a one-way-aisles scheme. In that particular store, there are two places where following the arrows will lead you into a corner with no means of escape except to violate an arrow. There's another spot where two floor arrows in the same aisle, about twelve feet apart, point toward each other -- if you approach from the north, it's a northbound aisle ... if you approach the same aisle from the south, it's southbound.

In that store, I frequently "back into" an aisle so that even though I'm traveling the 'wrong way' ... I'm facing the 'right' way. Thankfully, I don't go to that store during peak hours.
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This really doesn't make me feel better about the state of our society.

 
Doug B said:
Of the three grocery stores I regularly visit, only one has floor arrows 'enforcing' a one-way-aisles scheme. In that particular store, there are two places where following the arrows will lead you into a corner with no means of escape except to violate an arrow. There's another spot where two floor arrows in the same aisle, about twelve feet apart, point toward each other -- if you approach from the north, it's a northbound aisle ... if you approach the same aisle from the south, it's southbound.

In that store, I frequently "back into" an aisle so that even though I'm traveling the 'wrong way' ... I'm facing the 'right' way. Thankfully, I don't go to that store during peak hours.
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Reminds me of the sign in the stairwell that says stay to the right when going up, stay to the left when going down. 

 
Slapdash said:
Case counts are your leading indicator for hospitilizations/deaths. By the time you are getting the latter numbers it  is far too late.
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I would ask to provide a link to this, as I think there is substantial evidence that this is not true to the extent that it matters.

 
culdeus said:
... I find myself leaning towards the right wing news on this topic.  It's a horrible wormhole to fall into but they source their points well ...
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Earlier on, I indulged people who presented right-wing media pieces about COVID-19 by researching the citations linked within. There was a good amount of it in this thread, esp. when Mr. Anonymous and Statorama were posting more often.

Anyway, I found these articles to actually be almost invariably poorly sourced. At best, a given source would present a germ of an idea that could be exaggerated or misfit into a "winning" right-wing point. At worst -- and pretty darned common -- would be cites to unvetted Google documents or postings to public forums that were removed due to Terms-of-Service violations.

Accordingly, by now I feel both comfortable and justified in summarily dismissing any and all right-wing media about COVID-19. I might miss something here and there ... but I think anything worth learning about COVID will be corroborated and covered at length in traditional pre-Internet media sources.

 
belljr said:
I'm confused.  If your argument is it's not "that bad" why did you pull your kids out of camp?

I'm not trying to argue, I'm just not understanding the point trying to be made
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The decision was more or less made for me, they dropped what would have been a 4 week term to a 1 week term.  That's pointless.  I didn't figure that level of detail was interesting to anyone.  We are now moving to a 3 week camp, leaving Monday.  

 
culdeus said:
But that doesn't explain how to know if what you are doing is failing.  

The "people in charge" seem to be leaning towards "Case counts don't matter" angle.  Where the opposition is citing W2W.  

Case counts seem nearly certainly to not be the way to go about it.  I'm willing to be shown I should care about case counts, but nobody has made a compelling case (so to speak).  

I'm willing to listen to targeted approaches where cases overwhelm hospitals in a specific area.  Those situations are seemingly avoidable, but again, I don't see how raw case counts are the answer there.
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Case counts do matter. They are a leading indicator, though they should be paired with tests to get a % positive so that we get the full story.  If the % positive isn't changing and case counts are only going up because you're testing more, then you could argue that case counts aren't important.

But when both rise, that's a big deal. 

With more cases comes more hospitalizations (which we are CLEARLY seeing in TX, FL, AZ, CA), and ultimately more deaths, (which it appears is beginning to happen in states with an outbreak).

The people you are listening to are 100% on the wrong side of this thing and in 3 weeks they will be screaming that normal deaths are being coded as covid deaths, because that's exactly what they argued in NYC during the big outbreak a few months ago.  Don't walk, run from their arguments, because they are falling apart on a daily basis.

 
Flying Elvis said:
I don't think my kids' school system is soliciting opinions from parents, honestly. I'm sure there are plenty who simply can't sustain distance learning due to the parents job situations. Obviously, age of the children is a huge factor, as well.

My concern for my kids is both physical health and mental health. Ages are 6, 8, and 12. The 12yo crushed distance learning and is able to hang out with 2 neighborhood kids his age so he's managing fairly well. Full time distance learning for him is actually better since he has the class clown thing and no classroom saw a huge maturity jump and he pulled his grades and teacher comments from some As / most Bs / 1 C with "Needs to focus / disruptive / etc." to straight As and "Awesome student / Great turnaround / etc."

The little guys just can't handle the lack of socialization. It was really showing over the final month of DL after only 2 months. I don't see them, Mrs. FE, or myself being able to handle a full year of DL. Even with counseling, which we're already doing, it's just not good for mental health. Some kind of mix would be totally acceptable, with 2 days at school and 2 home. But 100% isolation with only Google/Zoom meets just won't work for a full school year. I don't even think it would work for more than a month or two at a time. 
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Thanks for the replies. I am in the southeast where we are seeing the surveys, etc and part of the reasoning is just as you say...the parents can't sustain jobs, etc.  It's not an indictment on any parent. It is a crappy situation with real consequences but that is the rub between safety and work, etc. 

In regard to the mental health aspect, I got an enlightenment on that a few weeks ago that I haven't heard many people mention but I'll share it and by no means do I mean to pass a judgment on any parents...just passing along what is an interesting take.  When info started coming out about the potential impact of children having a hard time because they can't socialize, of course you had people say "well, its cause they are growing up on social media instead of being interacted with at home, don't know how to deal with life head on, etc, etc"...

ok, i'll wait for the "ok boomer" remarks..but there is an interesting thing here. I've sat in rooms with people who describe how their parents told them stories of being in a bomb shelter in Europe for 6 weeks, living through literal wars, migrating with their families, enduring hard times, etc and there concern is that somehow in only 2 generations we hav lost the ability to endure a dose of isolation and self-sustainment (of course a lot the examples are unfairly extreme, talking about how people cry because they can't get their nails done or hair cut, or go to Starbucks, etc).  

But the point is, what is the real degree here and how much of us is assuming our children can't adapt and be okay just because they have never faced adversity?  We may be selling them short and, some argue, it could be somewhat beneficial to find "self" a little more vs. being in the collective hive all the time. 

 
Just got the following from our school system - thought I would share:

The Superintendent’s plan calls for the school year to begin on Aug. 3, 2020 with all campuses open for Traditional In-Person learning for all grades; parents also will have the option to instead enroll their child in <county> Digital Learning program.  Parents who choose to keep their child home to participate in Digital Learning will be required by noon on Friday, July 17, to complete a Digital Learning Commitment Form to commit to the program from Aug. 3-Oct. 9 for elementary students; and from Aug. 3-Dec. 18 for middle and high school students.
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I'm happy to have a choice at least.

 
culdeus said:
I would ask to provide a link to this, as I think there is substantial evidence that this is not true to the extent that it matters.
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What does that even mean? Is there some other way to inform as to the spread of the virus besides testing for it and finding it?

 
SoBeDad said:
"Miami-Dade: Third day now of flat COVID patient volume once again driven by lots of discharges (nearly 400 in the last two days, which is unprecedented). That is, for now, outpacing "patients added," which is still elevated (369 in the last two days)."

https://mobile.twitter.com/conarck/status/1280916763178348545
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That's good news for Miami.  I'd assume that's a result of a very low average age 2 weeks ago (around 33) and possibly Remdesivir?  That drug was supposed to shorten ICU times, although there is a limited supply of it.  

 
culdeus said:
I would ask to provide a link to this, as I think there is substantial evidence that this is not true to the extent that it matters.
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I have seen nothing that supports what you are arguing.  I would ask you to provide a link to this "substantial evidence".

 
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shader said:
That's good news for Miami.  I'd assume that's a result of a very low average age 2 weeks ago (around 33) and possibly Remdesivir?  That drug was supposed to shorten ICU times, although there is a limited supply of it.  
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Considering Miami is driving this state's numbers, it's good news for the state overall.

 
Doug B said:
Earlier on, I indulged people who presented right-wing media pieces about COVID-19 by researching the citations linked within. There was a good amount of it in this thread, esp. when Mr. Anonymous and Statorama were posting more often.

Anyway, I found these articles to actually be almost invariably poorly sourced. At best, a given source would present a germ of an idea that could be exaggerated or misfit into a "winning" right-wing point. At worst -- and pretty darned common -- would be cites to unvetted Google documents or postings to public forums that were removed due to Terms-of-Service violations.

Accordingly, by now I feel both comfortable and justified in summarily dismissing any and all right-wing media about COVID-19. I might miss something here and there ... but I think anything worth learning about COVID will be corroborated and covered at length in traditional pre-Internet media sources.
Click to expand...
The thing is, I am more than capable of looking at the available data sources and seeing a declining death count in the face of rising cases suggesting, at a minimum, the all age IFR was vastly overstated and is in the 0.2% to 0.6% range not the 2 to 6% range.  No matter how the right wing uses verbal diarrhea and hyperbole to make their points, it doesn't make the core arguments invalid.  

I'm willing to W2W ad  infinitum, but at some point it gets absurd. It's time to start admitting that the IFR is perhaps an order of magnitude lower than was initially reported, that the initial response should not drive today's decision process, and/or this thing simply has gotten weaker as a whole.

There will be hot spots and there will be deaths.  Some at a young age.  It happens.  There are reasonable methods to avoid this as much as is practical. There are a shocking number of people that are not doing the most basic things, and that's regrettable.  

Policy needs to be directed at the low hanging fruit, masks, keep people out of indoor restaurants, churches, etc.  Then see what we can do about schools, because it's not looking good.

 
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