Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I'm not comfortable with expected/unexpected again, until we live with this longer. Still too many unknowns, IMO.
Battersbox
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Here's a decent article from Nature
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2
ETA - to clarify, this doesn't say it's .2 vs. 1.0 - rather just an article that shows some studies have it at both. .2% is on the real low end though (so far).
Last edited by a moderator:
shader
Footballguy
There is very little, if any.
A very recent study from Spain suggests an IFR of just over 1%.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext
jplvr
Footballguy
TL;DR. No, I don't think case numbers mean what they used to mean. They shouldn't be ignored either. Also, I don't think hospitalizations and ICU bed stats are the same as they used to be either.parasaurolophus said:
It actually said 6-8 weeks. Someone elsewhere pointed out to me that's a CDC lag time, but none of us are really tracking it that way. We are looking at state case reports, and trying to judge lag, which really is closer to 14 days than 42. About lag: some tests come back in a day or less, and some can take 7-10 days, or more... still. Why do we only talk about the lag starting when case numbers are reported? I know at least 10 people now who have taken two tests to go back to work. One rapid; one that comes back multiple days later. My question: are they getting counted twice? I know it can easily be argued 10 cases is anecdotal, and there may not be any statistical implication to the numbers, but it's still a concern with trying to judge real time data and predict anything when you wonder how many times a person is counted AND how long it took a reported test to come back.
I haven't been happy with the hospitalization numbers the past few days for Florida, but I've also been trying to talk to people on the ground. Heard about Jackson in Miami a couple of days before that broke in the news, but even though they were pretty full, I was told it was like 20% Covid in the ICU. The guy I mentioned in Orlando said they opened up their overflow ICU because they were getting full, but to date, they aren't using it. I think he said 15% of the ICU was Covid.
Just like we aren't able to compare NY with today's ability to test, we also cannot compare NY ICU capacity with what is happening now. Maybe @Terminalxylem can fill me in, but as I understand it, hospitalizations and ICUs in NYC were mostly Covid patients during their worst time. I've hinted to a question previously about whether or not it matters, but it's at least not entirely fair to compare those situations at face value. Is a regular ICU patient as difficult to deal with as a Covid ICU patient? Let's say my guy in Orlando gets a full ICU, and they end up with a Covid ICU ward and a regular ICU ward. At what stage would there be a reason to panic? IIRC, their regular ICU capacity was around 32, and I do remember their overflow would put them at 68. And doing the math, 15% of 32 means 5-6 total Covid patients in his hospital (system?) right now.
I admit numbers aren't where I want them to be. Deaths are relatively flat, but I want them to fall. None of this is happening where I am in Florida, but I'd still rather get this over with soon, state wide.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Is there a link for this somewhere? A facebook friend (who's wrong about everything) cited that figure a month ago but refused to back it up and I couldn't find it myself.
Edit: nvm, I guess it comes from here.
Last edited by a moderator:
Doug B
Footballguy
Coulda sworn I posted this same article recently:
Fact check: CDC's estimates COVID-19 death rate around 0.26%, doesn't confirm it (USA Today, 6/5/2020)
Unfortunately, that doesn't really settle anything conclusively. So far as I understand it ... you can't really get any kind of firm "death rate" number this early on, anyway -- that goes for both CFR and IFR. Those kind of figures get better estimated after a year or two or three of data are in the rear-view mirror.
jplvr
Footballguy
Orlando/Central Florida:
15 on vent from none.
Native ICUs at his hospital are still not full, but they opened the expansion.
Staffing would be the problem, as I've been told here and elsewhere previously.
His system is 10+ hospitals in central Florida
Still manageable, but staffing and shipping out stable nursing home patients is the issue at the moment.
Lots of patients in his system with it, not there for it, but the ICU filling up was his concern.
79 Covid patients either with or there for Covid in his particular hospital, and up to 15 now in ICU (I guess those are all on vent). No idea on system wide numbers.
Edit: Youngest in ICU is 49. Mostly 65+.
15 on vent from none.
Native ICUs at his hospital are still not full, but they opened the expansion.
Staffing would be the problem, as I've been told here and elsewhere previously.
His system is 10+ hospitals in central Florida
Still manageable, but staffing and shipping out stable nursing home patients is the issue at the moment.
Lots of patients in his system with it, not there for it, but the ICU filling up was his concern.
79 Covid patients either with or there for Covid in his particular hospital, and up to 15 now in ICU (I guess those are all on vent). No idea on system wide numbers.
Edit: Youngest in ICU is 49. Mostly 65+.
Last edited by a moderator:
Doug B
Footballguy
BTW, the document in red is also the source for "median death is 13-14 days after onset of symptoms" (scroll down almost to the bottom, to "Mean number of days from symptom onset to death"). The CDC gave caveats for all the figures on that page (as shown in the post immediately above this one):
Thanks. I would also add that we have a worse health care system as well as higher incidence of obesity and related diseases. Both would cause me to reason that our IFR would be higher than other countries in those comparisons. Working against it would be the idea that the disease has mutated into something lower.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Answer to the bolded is: it depends.
For our first 2 months or so of tracking, we were counting duplicates (unbeknownst to the general public at that time). Then one day, after an announcement and a couple of days of no updates, they rolled out an update in their reporting methods/existing data to remove those duplicates, as well as assigning cases to the parish of residence (as opposed to the site of the testing center that processed the test, which is what they were doing prior to that, also unbeknownst to the general public). Numbers jumped around a good bit upon that update, and case counts in all of the areas I was tracking fell a bit (due to removing the duplications).
So "it depends" on how exactly your state is doing their reporting. You might check your state department of health website and see if they offer any guidance there.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
According to the data from WI people testing negative more than once are not counted.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Semi-related - when my grocery store first put down the stickers the assistant manager put all the arrows going the same way (front to back). We’re in the back, so we got some great entertainment watching customers trying to navigate before inevitably throwing their hands up in frustration. We let it go for about half an hour before pointing it out to the manager, but it was good stress reliever while it lasted.Brony said:
gianmarco
Footballguy
Ferocious surge in US
Six months ago, no one thought Covid-19 existed in the US.
The first reported case came on January 21. Within 99 days, 1 million Americans became infected.
It took just 43 days after that to reach 2 million cases.
And 28 days later, the US reached 3 million cases of the novel coronavirus Wednesday
:(
Six months ago, no one thought Covid-19 existed in the US.
The first reported case came on January 21. Within 99 days, 1 million Americans became infected.
It took just 43 days after that to reach 2 million cases.
And 28 days later, the US reached 3 million cases of the novel coronavirus Wednesday
:(
gianmarco
Footballguy
"You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.”
(Hotel California playing on loop in the background)
beer 30
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
.2% or anywhere near it is absurd when you look at NYC deaths. Even ignoring probable COVID deaths, the death rate in NYC is more than 0.2% of the entire population.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
This is all just so stupid. 90% of the rest of the world has figured out that there are really easy low cost low effort things you can do to virtually stop the spread yet we’re too stubborn and selfish to just wear masks around other people and social distance. Basically every country in the world whose people are doing those two things have essentially stopped the virus in their country. This isn’t difficult.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Joseph fair tested negative for covid antibodies.
So four negative tests previously and now a negative antibody test.
I guess i can stop wearing my full face scuba mask with n95 snorkel now.
So four negative tests previously and now a negative antibody test.
I guess i can stop wearing my full face scuba mask with n95 snorkel now.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
I'm floored by this statement. Like, "don't know what to say" kind of floored.culdeus said:
CR69
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Joseph Fair's experience doesn't really inform anything in one direction or the other. He was very sick. He didn't have COVID-19. There were other candidate illnesses he could have had.
Unsure of your point, especially the last line.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
He said he got covid through his eyes originally even though he had 4 negative tests and was aware he had 4 negative tests.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
To be fair, "treating" is the key word since @culdeus thinks the death rate will continue to be much lower than it has been in other places.
Now, whether you agree with the premise that the death rate will be lower this time around in FL / AZ / TX / [insert state] or not, I think the statement by culdeus is quite a bit different than "I feel we have gotten close to the point where we can declare victory [over this pandemic]
I'm holding out hope that our medical community has, in fact, learned enough to be much better at actually treating cases and it will, in conjunction with better testing, result in much lower fatality rates in the most recent hotspots.
Still, the goal is to not have your local hospital systems overrun with patients. I may just start my copy/pasta post from March about that just so everyone continues to focus on that.
On the whole 6 week/2 week lag, it’s not just the initial infections that we have to look at, but also the spread caused by those initial infections.
It’s been well established that the initial cases of this outbreak were younger, healthier people who are likely to have a low hospitalization risk and a very low death risk. Those cases will likely be resolved in 2-3 weeks but that’s not the end of the outbreak.
For the sake of making the numbers easy, let’s say that each case will result in 2 additional infections. Some of those infections will remain in the low-risk age groups but some will expand to higher risk.
With each new round of infections you’re likely to see the average age increase along with hospitalization and death risk. For the first couple rounds that might not be a significant increase but after 4 or 5 rounds, deaths are sure to start rising.
How long will it take to get to that point? That’s anyone’s guess. There’s also the chance that we never get there especially if a significant intervention is made to stop the spread.
To use an over-simplified example, let’s say that it takes 1 week to identify a case after infection. And in that one week you start the next round of infections. Hospitalizations happen 1 week after diagnosis and deaths 1 week after that.
Start: Large infection event (Round 1)
Week 1: Round 1 Cases
Week 2: Round 2 Cases, Round 1 Hospitalizations
Week 3: Round 3 Cases, Round 2 Hospitalizations, Round 1 Deaths
Week 4: Round 4 Cases, Round 3 Hospitalizations, Round 2 Deaths
Week 5: Round 5 Cases, Round 4 Hospitalizations, Round 3 Deaths
Week 6: Round 6 Cases, Round 5 Hospitalizations, Round 4 Deaths
Week 7: Round 7 Cases, Round 6 Hospitalizations, Round 5 Deaths
Week 8: Round 8 Cases, Round 7 Hospitalizations, Round 6 Deaths
For each round, a certain percentage will be asymptomatic and never test positive. That means that a spike in cases might not be realized right away, maybe not until round 3.
Likewise, hospitalization risk may be low initially and grow as the cases grow and the average age increases, let’s say round 4.
Finally deaths will take longer to grow to the average age where death risk is significant, let’s say round 6.
Using those examples we would see a spike in:
Cases - Week 3
Hospitalizations: Week 5
Deaths: Week 8
That would put a 5 week gap between the spike in cases and the spike in deaths. Not that it would take 5 weeks for deaths to result from those cases but 5 weeks for the disease to spread and progress to a point where deaths increase.
Look at New York and surrounding states. If you assume that they were a couple ‘rounds’ ahead of the rest of the country and combine that with the population density that would increase the exponential spread, it goes a long way to explaining why they got so much worse than the rest of the country.
It’s been well established that the initial cases of this outbreak were younger, healthier people who are likely to have a low hospitalization risk and a very low death risk. Those cases will likely be resolved in 2-3 weeks but that’s not the end of the outbreak.
For the sake of making the numbers easy, let’s say that each case will result in 2 additional infections. Some of those infections will remain in the low-risk age groups but some will expand to higher risk.
With each new round of infections you’re likely to see the average age increase along with hospitalization and death risk. For the first couple rounds that might not be a significant increase but after 4 or 5 rounds, deaths are sure to start rising.
How long will it take to get to that point? That’s anyone’s guess. There’s also the chance that we never get there especially if a significant intervention is made to stop the spread.
To use an over-simplified example, let’s say that it takes 1 week to identify a case after infection. And in that one week you start the next round of infections. Hospitalizations happen 1 week after diagnosis and deaths 1 week after that.
Start: Large infection event (Round 1)
Week 1: Round 1 Cases
Week 2: Round 2 Cases, Round 1 Hospitalizations
Week 3: Round 3 Cases, Round 2 Hospitalizations, Round 1 Deaths
Week 4: Round 4 Cases, Round 3 Hospitalizations, Round 2 Deaths
Week 5: Round 5 Cases, Round 4 Hospitalizations, Round 3 Deaths
Week 6: Round 6 Cases, Round 5 Hospitalizations, Round 4 Deaths
Week 7: Round 7 Cases, Round 6 Hospitalizations, Round 5 Deaths
Week 8: Round 8 Cases, Round 7 Hospitalizations, Round 6 Deaths
For each round, a certain percentage will be asymptomatic and never test positive. That means that a spike in cases might not be realized right away, maybe not until round 3.
Likewise, hospitalization risk may be low initially and grow as the cases grow and the average age increases, let’s say round 4.
Finally deaths will take longer to grow to the average age where death risk is significant, let’s say round 6.
Using those examples we would see a spike in:
Cases - Week 3
Hospitalizations: Week 5
Deaths: Week 8
That would put a 5 week gap between the spike in cases and the spike in deaths. Not that it would take 5 weeks for deaths to result from those cases but 5 weeks for the disease to spread and progress to a point where deaths increase.
Look at New York and surrounding states. If you assume that they were a couple ‘rounds’ ahead of the rest of the country and combine that with the population density that would increase the exponential spread, it goes a long way to explaining why they got so much worse than the rest of the country.
TLEF316
Footballguy
I honestly cant' believe I have to type this out, but.....
We are in the middle of a horrible situation. The absolute best people we have believe that in order to get out of it and back to some semblance of normal ASAP, we should do A, B AND C. Not one of them, not two of them....all 3. MAYBE all 3 aren't necessary, but they're good, easy to accomplish best practices that MIGHT get us back to normal a little bit faster.
Lets say A is improved hygiene practices, (surprised there isn't an anti-hand washing movement yet) B is wearing masks and C is social distancing (which one way down the aisles facilitates). NONE of these things are all that difficult or inconvenient and going the right way down the aisle MIGHT cost you an extra 45 seconds in the grocery store (if you have to walk down an extra aisle or two to get to some items you need).
Why in the world wouldn't you just do these things? Why would you push back against them? This really is not that much to ask. Its just mind boggling that anyone would make a stink (or choose to ignore) about a request to simply follow an arrow on the floor to improve other shopper's abilities to stay 6 feet away from you.
God we are in for a long year.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Because cloth masks aren’t 100% effective. Even N95 masks that are properly fit tested and worn properly only stop 95% of particles that are 0.3 um in size or larger.
Depending on the cloth mask material, if it’s worn properly, etc. it could be anywhere from like 15-80% effective. If everyone is wearing a cloth mask, it probably bumps it up to 70-90% effective or something similar. But it’s still not 100% effective. That’s why social distancing is the #1 control method and masks are secondary in importance. It’s an additional form of protection, not a replacement.
shader
Footballguy
Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"
(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)
July 8: 581 deaths
Big increase over the last two Wednesdays: (458,428,581)
7-day average in deaths
6/28: 278
6/29: 304
6/30: 310
7/1: 305
7/2: 316
7/3: 321
7/4: 302
7/5: 304
7/6: 317
7/7: 340
7/8: 361
Can we stop saying deaths are declining? Please?
(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)
July 8: 581 deaths
Big increase over the last two Wednesdays: (458,428,581)
7-day average in deaths
6/28: 278
6/29: 304
6/30: 310
7/1: 305
7/2: 316
7/3: 321
7/4: 302
7/5: 304
7/6: 317
7/7: 340
7/8: 361
Can we stop saying deaths are declining? Please?
Last edited by a moderator:
shader
Footballguy
Nailed it. Great post.
One factor that hasn't been talked about much is this: By the time the New York spike in deaths hit the peak, they had been in lockdown for 4 weeks.
There are no lockdowns now....
Redwes25
Footballguy
This happened in NYC and is deeply concerning - https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/08/houston-coronavirus-deaths-number/
SpurrierisisGod
Footballguy
Im not sure why this popped in my head just now and maybe it's been asked previously but...
Is there any study that has tried to link covid deaths with people that had received the flu shot? Or the shot older folks get for pneumonia? I'd be interested in something like covid deaths/flu shot.
Is there any study that has tried to link covid deaths with people that had received the flu shot? Or the shot older folks get for pneumonia? I'd be interested in something like covid deaths/flu shot.
SpurrierisisGod
Footballguy
Oh and what's the protocol for a coworker coming in contact with someone that just tested positive?
Wife works for a dentist (a #justafludentist btw) and one of the hygienists said her daughter in law just tested positive. Last Contact monday. Isnt the hygienist supposed to quarantine now for 14 days? Shes getting tested tomorrow. If positive, whole office quarantine 14 days? If negative, ??
Wife works for a dentist (a #justafludentist btw) and one of the hygienists said her daughter in law just tested positive. Last Contact monday. Isnt the hygienist supposed to quarantine now for 14 days? Shes getting tested tomorrow. If positive, whole office quarantine 14 days? If negative, ??
culdeus
Footballguy
A cure for a novel virus is not realistic. Not in any of our lifetimes. Getting the fatality rate down to a flu is easily a victory.
CR69
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I was the guy wearing the mask when there were only 5% of us doing so. I'll stay 6 ft away from you, but I'm not walking all the way all the way around, waiting 5 minutes for the people in front of me to clear that aisle to next the one I need to be on, to then walk 3/4's of the way back to look for what I need. It's not a mere 45 seconds as you suggest unless the place is empty in which case it wouldn't matter. It makes no difference which direction I pass you. Would you be satisfied if I walked backwards down the aisle?
Quite honestly if me wearing a mask and keeping 6 ft away from you isn't enough, you should have your groceries delivered.
need2know
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
DallasDMac
Footballguy
DallasDMac
Footballguy
San Antonio broke it's single day death record today. Included one man in his 20s, one in his 30s, one in his 40s, one in his 50s.
TLEF316
Footballguy
uh, you can't stay 6 feet away from someone if you're passing them in a grocery store aisle.
I feel like you're greatly exaggerating how long people take in the aisles (5 minutes? Come on) but if that's your experience, fine. i tend to plan my grocery shopping for the least crowded times possible. (because even pre-Covid, people were morons in the grocery store)
Its not even about me getting infected. I'm mid 30's and healthy. Its about the fact that our society as a whole is too dumb/selfish/stubborn to follow incredibly simple protocol, which is (partially) why this thing isn't going away nearly as fast as it could be.
Last edited by a moderator:
renesauz
IBL Representative
The test lag continues. MOST of the tests we send out in hospital aren't actually sent out...they're done in house now with results in as little as 12 hours. Most people getting outpatient tests are sent to LABCORP and still tsake at least 3 days and sometimes 5 or 6.
My ICU in SE VA has held steady. While we had up to half the unit on COVID isolation at a time before we had capacity for rapid testing, we peaked at 5 cases and have had between 2- and 4 confirmed cases pretty consistently for the last 3 months (there have been at least twice that many in the hospital at any given time just not in ICU). We've been operating nearly full for a couple of weeks now, but not due to COVID (at least not directly.....some certainly are as some people have been far more hesitant to go to their PCP or even ER for fear of COVID...see the same thing with women and breast cancer...you wouldn't believe how many times I've found an obvious suspicious lump on someone who's never seen a doctor for it!)
The COVID cases (at least the ones who end up on a vent) tend to hang out for a LOOOOONG time, even if they get better. It's often 3 weeks before they are liberated from the vent or die.
@Terminalxylem, we tried another convalescent plasma, this time on somebody who was MUCH earlier in their stay.....this time the guy seemed to have turned a corner much earlier. Maybe timing on it makes a big difference? Hard to say as our numbers (in my unit) are too low too make conclusions.
ETA: For contrast, Virginia has been one of the few states holding steady overall, not rising but not dropping significantly either. We've had public masking rules in effect for a while but not well enforced.
And yes...COVID patients in the ICU are typically among the more demanding on RN time and attention, mostly because they are often the ones getting proned, paralyzed chemically, and on high support. Anecdotally, for some reason the COVID patients seem much more difficult to sedate...IE: they typically require far more drugs to sedate them then is normal. Doubt that's been studied as there are more important things to study but I'd bet my house retroactive studies find this to be true
Last edited by a moderator:
renesauz
IBL Representative
Not sure that's true in this case....too many people have serious effects weeks or months after being sick. Fatality rate is only one small part here as we could be looking at a huge wave of disabled and debilitated people. They are only just now starting to look at this aspect seriously in Europe in places where acute infections are way down
