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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

Not sure that's true in this case....too many people have serious effects weeks or months after being sick. Fatality rate is only one small part here as we could be looking at a huge wave of disabled and debilitated people. They are only just now starting to look at this aspect seriously in Europe in places where acute infections are way down
Yeah but it’s not like you actually need your organs, right?

 
Not sure that's true in this case....too many people have serious effects weeks or months after being sick. Fatality rate is only one small part here as we could be looking at a huge wave of disabled and debilitated people. They are only just now starting to look at this aspect seriously in Europe in places where acute infections are way down
Yes. This is something worth worrying about.  Even people with mild symptoms are struggling with stamina, and breathing.   I've yet to see an estimate but MERS was the same way.  Could be worth looking at how that worked out. 

 
Orlando/Central Florida:

15 on vent from none.

Native ICUs at his hospital are still not full, but they opened the expansion.

Staffing would be the problem, as I've been told here and elsewhere previously.

His system is 10+ hospitals in central Florida

Still manageable, but staffing and shipping out stable nursing home patients is the issue at the moment.

Lots of patients in his system with it, not there for it, but the ICU filling up was his concern.

79 Covid patients either with or there for Covid in his particular hospital, and up to 15 now in ICU (I guess those are all on vent). No idea on system wide numbers.

Edit: Youngest in ICU is 49. Mostly 65+.
As I've mentioned here before, staffing is USUALLY the problem. We struggle mightily when our normal units are full...I have no idea how we could safely staff the "overflow" space. I hate that public health officials focus on "beds" because the beds number is typically far higher then the staff trained to handle those patients allows

 
Yes. This is something worth worrying about.  Even people with mild symptoms are struggling with stamina, and breathing.   I've yet to see an estimate but MERS was the same way.  Could be worth looking at how that worked out. 
still pretty early, and not well studied yet. We may find that its just a longer then normal recovery and most of these folks DO eventually get back to their previous baseline. Not sure that's a realistic hope but it's not impossible

 
As I've mentioned here before, staffing is USUALLY the problem. We struggle mightily when our normal units are full...I have no idea how we could safely staff the "overflow" space. I hate that public health officials focus on "beds" because the beds number is typically far higher then the staff trained to handle those patients allows
Our mayor routinely reports "staffed beds." I assume they are taking in to account exactly what you are talking about. That a bed with no staff to attend to it is pretty useless for a COVID patient.

 
Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"

(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)

July 8: 581 deaths

Big increase over the last two Wednesdays: (458,428,581)

7-day average in deaths

6/28: 278

6/29: 304

6/30: 310

7/1: 305

7/2: 316

7/3: 321

7/4: 302

7/5: 304

7/6: 317

7/7: 340

7/8: 361

Can we stop saying deaths are declining?  Please?  
Fatalities are catching up to cases. And cases are continuing to rise. As are hospitalizations.

Why is it that people are surprised by this? Or did they forget about the lag time?

FL, TX, AZ, GA, NC and SC need to lock it down. Phase 1 or complete Stay at Home. Essentials only. Masks mandated. No retail, no restaurants, no hair salons, no nothing. Sorry, you blew it.

This needs to happen tomorrow. Perhaps other states too, but definitely these. 

We’ve seen this before people. It’s happening. Don’t be fooled because the deaths lagged. People have been raising the alarm for weeks. Others resisted, head in the sand. We’re not doing this right people, wake up.

 
Fatalities are catching up to cases. And cases are continuing to rise. As are hospitalizations.

Why is it that people are surprised by this? Or did they forget about the lag time?

FL, TX, AZ, GA, NC and SC need to lock it down. Phase 1 or complete Stay at Home. Essentials only. Masks mandated. No retail, no restaurants, no hair salons, no nothing. Sorry, you blew it.

This needs to happen tomorrow. Perhaps other states too, but definitely these. 

We’ve seen this before people. It’s happening. Don’t be fooled because the deaths lagged. People have been raising the alarm for weeks. Others resisted, head in the sand. We’re not doing this right people, wake up.
The really scary thing is that the USA is about to go into truly unprecedented territory.  As bad as it was in Italy, Spain, Wuhan and New York City....all of those areas had lockdowns far in advance of the death spikes.

Lockdowns aren’t happening now.  It will probably take refrigerated trucks for the dead bodies to get states to lockdown again, but even at the point where they do, we are still 4-6 weeks from relief.

And the whole second wave was completely avoidable.

 
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uh, you can't stay 6 feet away from someone if you're passing them in a grocery store aisle. 

I feel like you're greatly exaggerating how long people take in the aisles (5 minutes? Come on) but if that's your experience, fine. i tend to plan my grocery shopping for the least crowded times possible. (because even pre-Covid, people were morons in the grocery store)

Its not even about me getting infected. I'm mid 30's and healthy. Its about the fact that our society as a whole is too dumb/selfish/stubborn to follow incredibly simple protocol, which is (partially) why this thing isn't going away nearly as fast as it could be. 
I'm totally on the pro mask/social distance side but IMO you're making way too big a deal about this whole one way grocery store thing. I get that you're just frustrated about people not being able to follow simple "rules" in light of what's going on but you have to come to grips that this is a pretty ineffective approach. 

For one, unless you're in a place with blaring signs, yeah it's probably easy to forget this rule when you are walking by an aisle and spot something in there that you forgot you needed and quickly try and grab it. It's actually a pretty drastic change to a behavior most of us have been doing for many years. I'll admit this happened to me a couple times as my store only had some tape on the floor and how often are you looking at the floor? 

Second, the aisles aren't like the moving walkways in the airport. People are always stopping their carts, staring at the items, picking up different ones...so you end up having to pass alongside anyway and it's the same brief extremely low risk interaction as if two people were passing in opposite directions. 

I've never had a problem in the aisles. They're built to allow for good movement. Compare that to the produce/bakery/deli type areas which tend to have no natural flow and leads to people getting stacked up. That's the only time I've felt uneasy in a grocery store during all of this.  

 
The really scary thing is that the USA is about to go into truly unprecedented territory.  As bad as it was in Italy, Spain, Wuhan and New York City....all of those areas had lockdowns far in advance of the death spikes.

Lockdowns aren’t happening now.  It will probably take refrigerated trucks for the dead bodies to get states to lockdown again, but even at the point where they do, we are still 4-6 weeks from relief.

And the whole second continuation of the first wave was completely avoidable.
FTFY

 
shader said:
Case counts do matter. They are a leading indicator, though they should be paired with tests to get a % positive so that we get the full story.  If the % positive isn't changing and case counts are only going up because you're testing more, then you could argue that case counts aren't important.
Gee, I remember making this same point a few months ago when I bothered trying to have a discussion in this thread and was told that new cases alone was a valid stat that didnt need total tests taken to give it some reference.

 
A couple questions. It seems like we should be able to answer by now.

Has anyone gotten this a second time?

Has anyone tested positive for antibodies and later negative?

 
Anecdotally, for some reason the COVID patients seem much more difficult to sedate...IE: they typically require far more drugs to sedate them then is normal. Doubt that's been studied as there are more important things to study but I'd bet my house retroactive studies find this to be true
funny, I noticed the same thing. I bet there’s something to it.

 
Glass half full would say that there seems no seasonal pause in the summer, so a seasonal peak in the winter is unexpected.  
Almost every respiratory virus surges in the fall/winter. Why?

1. Cold weather keeps people indoors, in close proximity to others

2. Kids are intermingling in school and vacation breaks with extended family

3. Respiratory droplets evaporate less quickly in cold weather

4. Vitamin D levels are lower, with relative immunosuppression in some

All the other coronaviruses peak in winter, too.

Your glass is certainly half full of something, and it stinks about as bad as the assumptions you’re making.

 
TLEF316 said:
At what point do we get to stop politely ignoring the idiots who can't figure out what to do in a grocery store?

The store near me has had arrows in the aisles since AT LEAST the middle of April. They're very clear and  easy to follow. There are signs referencing them all over the store.  Yet every freaking time I go in, at least 30% of the people are going the wrong way. Its absolute lunacy.

Just now, I'm in the middle of a trip and there's a well dressed woman in her 40's dragging two kids behind her. No cart, so she's obviously just there for a couple of things. And of course, she's going the wrong way (I saw her in 3 separate aisles). She's in her own little world in the rice aisle and (after waiting 20 seconds)  I politely say "excuse me" so i can go by her  (going the right way). She doesn't hear me/ignores me, so I just try to pass. Of course....THEN she backs up into me. She apologizes and I say "its ok, but you're going the wrong way". I guess she thought I said that I was going the wrong way and she says "that's ok". I could have just kept walking, but I'm getting kinda tired of this so I respond...."No.....YOU'RE going the wrong way". She claims she didn't see the arrows. They've been up for at least 3 months.

Then I turn to the next aisle and THREE people are going the wrong way. 

We're honestly doomed if these are the people we need to cater to.
Sometimes I honestly just forget. I've been going to the same grocery store for 20 years. The arrows have been there for three months. 

 
Sometimes I honestly just forget. I've been going to the same grocery store for 20 years. The arrows have been there for three months. 
I haven’t shopped but a few times since these have been up.  I admit that if no one is in an aisle I’ve gone the wrong way in to the aisle but then leave correctly.  At some point following the arrows can actually be a bad thing if there’s not a lot of people.  But I’m in favor of them.

 
I usually follow the arrows, but let's be honest.  We know more now about how this virus spreads than we did back in March.  These arrows were a good idea when we were all operating out of an abundance of caution.  We now know that grocery stores are not a significant vector of infection and that fleeting interactions with infected people are very low-risk, especially if everyone is wearing a mask.  The little arrows can go away now.

 
I usually follow the arrows, but let's be honest.  We know more now about how this virus spreads than we did back in March.  These arrows were a good idea when we were all operating out of an abundance of caution.  We now know that grocery stores are not a significant vector of infection and that fleeting interactions with infected people are very low-risk, especially if everyone is wearing a mask.  The little arrows can go away now.
Exactly. They're also basically pointless with masks now.

 
Tinfoil hat time:

1) The impact of this virus has a profound correlation with age and comorbidities, both of which are expensive to treat in s health care system. Plus the elderly doing have as much expendable income as other groups.

2) The best mitigation strategies for containing the spread of the virus are to limit indoor, extended time interactions with other people. Thus accelerating the move to online and virtual gatherings and furthering our dependence on computers and the internet.

Who stands to gain from such effects? Microsoft, Apple, Google, EA, and other giant software companies.

* Note, I don't really believe this

 
Tinfoil hat time:

1) The impact of this virus has a profound correlation with age and comorbidities, both of which are expensive to treat in s health care system. Plus the elderly doing have as much expendable income as other groups.

2) The best mitigation strategies for containing the spread of the virus are to limit indoor, extended time interactions with other people. Thus accelerating the move to online and virtual gatherings and furthering our dependence on computers and the internet.

Who stands to gain from such effects? Microsoft, Apple, Google, EA, and other giant software companies.

* Note, I don't really believe this
Don't forget Amazon

 
We’ve spiked in Austin, and Texas generally. State opened May 1. Exponentials, meaning cases and hospitalizations doubling over short time periods, started in earnest two weeks ago (in course of 10 days, Austin went from 7 day moving average of 7 new hospitalizations to 25, and are now over 70.) 

The seeding of exponential rise in cases takes around 2 months. It’s there in the data.

You see fingerprints along the way, but assuming the R0 remains similar, the scary doubling of the doubling starts to become material after several rounds of retransmission, each with an incubation period of a few days. 2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-1024-2048-4096. Imagine 5 days between each, and there’s your 2 month road to a crisis.

I’ve seen a lot of pundits arguing whether the current outbreak was heavily influenced by the protests. My argument is that we won’t truly feel that impact for 2-3 weeks from now. I suspect the current wave is mostly just a product of reopening, and cases spread from the protests will produce an incremental exponential wave unless something radically changes in terms of behavior. 

Unfortunately, that thing is another full lockdown, and we’re probably hours away from that here. (We’ve entered the criteria of 70 new daily hospitalizations to trigger Stage 5, and expect it’s imminent.)

You may have also read that the downtown convention center has been prepped as a triage hospital.
Do you really think Abbott will lock it down?  I doubt it.   

 
Gee, I remember making this same point a few months ago when I bothered trying to have a discussion in this thread and was told that new cases alone was a valid stat that didnt need total tests taken to give it some reference.
I agree I was formerly too reliant on case counts.  Advice from you and others in here changed my perspective.  To learn from each other is a good thing, even if at times I can be a bit hard-headed about change at the outset.

 
We’ve spiked in Austin, and Texas generally. State opened May 1. Exponentials, meaning cases and hospitalizations doubling over short time periods, started in earnest two weeks ago (in course of 10 days, Austin went from 7 day moving average of 7 new hospitalizations to 25, and are now over 70.) 

The seeding of exponential rise in cases takes around 2 months. It’s there in the data.

You see fingerprints along the way, but assuming the R0 remains similar, the scary doubling of the doubling starts to become material after several rounds of retransmission, each with an incubation period of a few days. 2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-1024-2048-4096. Imagine 5 days between each, and there’s your 2 month road to a crisis.

I’ve seen a lot of pundits arguing whether the current outbreak was heavily influenced by the protests. My argument is that we won’t truly feel that impact for 2-3 weeks from now. I suspect the current wave is mostly just a product of reopening, and cases spread from the protests will produce an incremental exponential wave unless something radically changes in terms of behavior. 

Unfortunately, that thing is another full lockdown, and we’re probably hours away from that here. (We’ve entered the criteria of 70 new daily hospitalizations to trigger Stage 5, and expect it’s imminent.)

You may have also read that the downtown convention center has been prepped as a triage hospital.
Hours away in Austin?  I really hope so, that's great news if true.  

 
This is all just so stupid. 90% of the rest of the world has figured out that there are really easy low cost low effort things you can do to virtually stop the spread yet we’re too stubborn and selfish to just wear masks around other people and social distance. Basically every country in the world whose people are doing those two things have essentially stopped the virus in their country. This isn’t difficult.
It's pretty simple when top leadership dismisses this as no big deal and actively goes against the very solutions that will knock the cases down to manageable. Yes I know there is a forum for that and I'm not beating the horse but this would be a completely different response if we did not have top leadership doing what they are doing right now.

And you're correct, this isn't difficult. It's very simple and fairly easy to accomplish. We can't get there from here right now. Check out Tulsa's numbers in the last few days. 'Murica

 
As I was driving back home this morning, I was thinking of our inability as a country to do the right thing as a whole and wear masks for the sake of others because it benefits society.  I'm thinking this as someone is driving aimlessly in the left lane without regard to others and making people go around on the right.

Just seemed like an obvious parallel.  Go to Europe, for example, and everyone drives on the right unless passing.  It's just what everyone does, it works, and it's considerate.  It works because everyone understands and follows along.  Here, however, it's futile.  So many just don't care and will cruise along in the left lane because it benefits them and being considerate of others doesn't really matter.  And it only takes 1 person to affect a whole bunch of people on the road.

Just like masks.

 
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Do you really think Abbott will lock it down?  I doubt it.   
Would Abbott have to be involved to lock down Travis County? Can the county do it on their own?

I know Austin is the capital of Texas ... so I don't know how that complicates things vis a vis state government vs. county government.

 
Almost every respiratory virus surges in the fall/winter. Why?

1. Cold weather keeps people indoors, in close proximity to others

2. Kids are intermingling in school and vacation breaks with extended family

3. Respiratory droplets evaporate less quickly in cold weather

4. Vitamin D levels are lower, with relative immunosuppression in some

All the other coronaviruses peak in winter, too.

Your glass is certainly half full of something, and it stinks about as bad as the assumptions you’re making.
That's fine, I feel like I qualified my statement sufficiently to show doubt.  There were a billion and one experts that were predicting a pull back in the summer, including the IHME models having this thing going to damn near zero by August.  They still have that bias baked in to their update yesterday.

 
Would Abbott have to be involved to lock down Travis County? Can the county do it on their own?

I know Austin is the capital of Texas ... so I don't know how that complicates things vis a vis state government vs. county government.
My understanding is his most recent orders override local orders.  See link

https://www.austinmonitor.com/stories/2020/04/abbott-says-his-order-overrides-local-disaster-rules/

 
Would Abbott have to be involved to lock down Travis County? Can the county do it on their own?

I know Austin is the capital of Texas ... so I don't know how that complicates things vis a vis state government vs. county government.
I think people overstate what the first lockdown really even was.

The biggest and most noticeable effect was shutting down restaurants and bars entirely, as well as indoor gatherings of 10+.  And schools.

There wasn't really an order to stay home as much as there wasn't anything to do if you left home. 

Several businesses switched to WFH models, but most of them have stayed with that.  And schools aren't back yet.

Having indoor restaurants and churches closed is the next most valid step IMO.  And universal masking.  That alone should put a huge halt on things.  But people LOVE their bloody ####### enchiladas.

 
My understanding is his most recent orders override local orders.  See link

https://www.austinmonitor.com/stories/2020/04/abbott-says-his-order-overrides-local-disaster-rules/
From that link, it looks like there's some debate:

In response to a question from a reporter about the Harris County order, Gov. Abbott said, “As we lay out in the booklet, page after page after page, we strongly recommend that everybody wear a mask. However, it’s not a mandate.” He said there is no penalty or fine for not wearing a mask. “My executive order supersedes any local order … we make it clear that no jurisdiction can impose any kind of penalty or fine ….”

Attorney and former Travis County Judge Bill Aleshire disagrees, insisting that Eckhardt, Adler and Hidalgo have the authority to issue such orders and that the governor’s order does not override local emergency regulations.

Aleshire cited Texas Government Code sec 418.108(g), saying the county judge has the authority independent of the governor to “control the movement of persons and the occupancy of premises in that area.”

Aleshire said Abbott is acting “kind of like Trump, Abbott thinks he’s in charge of everything. That’s not what the emergency management law says.”
Also, that link is from April 28th. I wonder if anything has gone down since then regarding this issue at the county level?

 
I think people overstate what the first lockdown really even was.

The biggest and most noticeable effect was shutting down restaurants and bars entirely, as well as indoor gatherings of 10+.  And schools.

There wasn't really an order to stay home as much as there wasn't anything to do if you left home. 
So far as I know, pretty much all March-April "lockdowns" all over the U.S. were similar. I don't know of anywhere that truly restricted personal movement.

 
So far as I know, pretty much all March-April "lockdowns" all over the U.S. were similar. I don't know of anywhere that truly restricted personal movement.
Right.  

Language and word choice does matter.  People hear Lockdown and they think welded in homes, and rebel against it.  That language is very unlikely to be used again even if they go back to the same ruledeck.

Texas is unusual.  The Rio Grande Valley is getting just hammered.  Dallas is not, but hard to say.  Even Houston looks like it's turning a corner now.  There are still something like 60/250ish counties reporting no active cases at all.  

There's reason to think there will be a regional approach used.  It also takes the pressure off the governor, who isn't up for re-election but there's a chance he could get a bi-partisan recall/impeachment if things keep going poorly.

 
Right.  

Language and word choice does matter.  People hear Lockdown and they think welded in homes, and rebel against it.  That language is very unlikely to be used again even if they go back to the same ruledeck.

Texas is unusual.  The Rio Grande Valley is getting just hammered.  Dallas is not, but hard to say.  Even Houston looks like it's turning a corner now.  There are still something like 60/250ish counties reporting no active cases at all.  

There's reason to think there will be a regional approach used.  It also takes the pressure off the governor, who isn't up for re-election but there's a chance he could get a bi-partisan recall/impeachment if things keep going poorly.
How is Houston turning a corner?

 
So far as I know, pretty much all March-April "lockdowns" all over the U.S. were similar. I don't know of anywhere that truly restricted personal movement.
We were pretty much told to stay home unless you had to get food.   We were told you could leave to excercise but all parks, playgrounds, bars etc were closed.  Couldn't even get home repairs done unless it was emergency.  Other than locking the parks no one was getting arrested for being out but there really wasn't anywhere to go

 
I don't see a corner turned in that chart, or any of the charts on that page (which I was already looking at).

Way too early to say Houston has turned the corner, imo.  But if they have, it would be interesting to know what they've done to turn the corner, so it can be replicated.
See the edit, I don't see how a declining % positive rate is not turning a corner, along with lowering positives and bed occupancy.  Sustained 10% positive testing is going to result in lower active cases (well 8% is the figure thrown around in NYC, but 10 in other spots including the TMC slides).

 
From that link, it looks like there's some debate:

Also, that link is from April 28th. I wonder if anything has gone down since then regarding this issue at the county level?
I am aware that is old but not also not aware that anything has changed on that front.  I know he had banned local leaders from prohibiting penalties for non-compliance with mask orders (then reversed course on that later).  Either way, I think Austin is going to need the buy in from the governor to shut it down and enforce the shut down.  

 
See the edit, I don't see how a declining % positive rate is not turning a corner, along with lowering positives and bed occupancy.  Sustained 10% positive testing is going to result in lower active cases (well 8% is the figure thrown around in NYC, but 10 in other spots including the TMC slides).
I edited as well.  I saw a few of those things.  What specifically is Houston doing to fight the spread?

 
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We were pretty much told to stay home unless you had to get food.   We were told you could leave to excercise but all parks, playgrounds, bars etc were closed.  Couldn't even get home repairs done unless it was emergency.  Other than locking the parks no one was getting arrested for being out but there really wasn't anywhere to go
Exactly. In NYC, we were pretty much locked down for 3 months.

 
Exactly. In NYC, we were pretty much locked down for 3 months.
This, to me, is another example of using imprecise language to make arguments.  Not you - people in general.  As culdeus said, most of us were never not allowed to leave our houses or go essentially anywhere.  There was just nowhere for us to go, like you said.  It's a minor point but there's many Facebook warriors who are using arguments about not being told what to do when that didn't happen in the vast majority of cases.

 
This, to me, is another example of using imprecise language to make arguments.  Not you - people in general.  As culdeus said, most of us were never not allowed to leave our houses or go essentially anywhere.  There was just nowhere for us to go, like you said.  It's a minor point but there's many Facebook warriors who are using arguments about not being told what to do when that didn't happen in the vast majority of cases.
My main point was, when people say "we were never really locked down" it sounds like things were less stringent in other states than they were here in NYC. Playgrounds were locked. In May, children started practicing sports at a local soccer field and cops would regularly drive through and tell people to leave.

 
My main point was, when people say "we were never really locked down" it sounds like things were less stringent in other states than they were here in NYC. Playgrounds were locked. In May, children started practicing sports at a local soccer field and cops would regularly drive through and tell people to leave.
Yeah, I wasn't arguing with you - just making a point that inexact language can lead to confusion, arguments and poor decisions.  It reminds me of the college course I took on networking - first day the professor asked what made networking so complex for the average person.  His answer/argument was that it's the terminology being used and how people didn't understand it and folks did not articulate it well.  That's something that has stuck with me for almost 25 years.

 
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This, to me, is another example of using imprecise language to make arguments.  Not you - people in general.  As culdeus said, most of us were never not allowed to leave our houses or go essentially anywhere.  There was just nowhere for us to go, like you said.  It's a minor point but there's many Facebook warriors who are using arguments about not being told what to do when that didn't happen in the vast majority of cases.
Yeah I was just referring to all lockdowns were not really.   We had people fined for having backyard BBQs.   You were told to stay home unless absolutely necessary.   Walking down the street or riding a bike was "fine".  Like shady said the order was stay at home.  I couldn't even get a fence fixed because they were not allowed and we're shutdown.   So many places may have been "no place to go",.  We definitely were on the sctrict side of stay the #### home

I wasn't trying to argue.  Just saying my area was about as officially locked down as you could be without being arrested for going outside

 
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My main point was, when people say "we were never really locked down" it sounds like things were less stringent in other states than they were here in NYC. Playgrounds were locked. In May, children started practicing sports at a local soccer field and cops would regularly drive through and tell people to leave.
Other examples are better I'm sure, but playgrounds have been locked here in Tampa since the beginning.

 
This, to me, is another example of using imprecise language to make arguments.  Not you - people in general.  As culdeus said, most of us were never not allowed to leave our houses or go essentially anywhere.  There was just nowhere for us to go, like you said.  It's a minor point but there's many Facebook warriors who are using arguments about not being told what to do when that didn't happen in the vast majority of cases.
"May we think of freedom, not as the right to do as we please, but as the opportunity to do what is right."

--Peter Marshall

 

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